Friday, January 31, 2014

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Super Bowl XLVIII

After all has been said, it is time to get this game done!

Super Bowl XLVIII Predictions:

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1

     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 2. Broncos by 2, Over/Under 48.5

     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Both teams at 15-3, advantage goes to Denver because the NFL has dubbed them the "Home Team of Record" for the Super Bowl.

     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. The Broncos play their home games on Sports Authority Field at Mile High, just 1,776 miles away from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, whereas CenturyLink Field in Seattle sits 2,856 miles away.




In two weeks (on February 10th), once the Super Bowl celebrations have wound down and the champion has been duly praised, complete season recaps for all teams will begin. Don't miss out on your chance to relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2013 season!

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Franchise Comparisons - Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks

Two great franchises are set to battle it out in the cold in New Jersey on Sunday to determine which one will take that next big step towards becoming a storied franchise. We’ve compared the offenses. We’ve compared the defenses. Now let’s compare the organizations as a whole and see how they stack up to each other.

Founded -
            Denver Broncos: 1960
            Seattle Seahawks: 1976
            Comment of Misfortune: Denver is older by 16 years and was part of the original American Football League before it joined with the NFL.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 1-0

Stadium Capacity -
            Denver Broncos: 76,125
            Seattle Seahawks: 67,000
            Comment of Misfortune: Since 76,125 is a few more drunken fans than 67,000, I gotta rule in favor of Denver.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 2-0

Uniform Colors -
            Denver Broncos: Orange and Navy Blue
            Seattle Seahawks: College Navy and Action Green with Wolf Gray accents
            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams have a variation of Navy Blue in their colors, so that's a draw. Orange and Action Green accents kind of offset each other with how possibly bad they can be if used incorrectly. Wolf Gray, however, is a very cool color and tips this category in favor of the Seahawks.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 2-1

Nickname -
            Denver Broncos: Broncos, Orange Crush
            Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks, Legion of Boom, Seagulls
            Comment of Misfortune: I know what Broncos are and I have a pretty good idea what a mythical Seahawk may look like. When I hear Orange Crush, though, I immediately think of a soda can, not something menacing. Legion of Boom, however, sounds like something Spider Man or Superman would have to fight. Gotta give the nod to Seattle.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Tied, 2-2

2013 Record -
            Denver Broncos: 13-3 (2-0)
            Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 (2-0)
            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams finished the season with 13 wins and neither have lost in the playoffs yet, so I have to call this category a draw.
            Team Advantage: Draw
            Score: Tied, 2-2-1

All-Time Regular Season Record -
            Denver Broncos: 432-378-10 (.527 win % since 1960)
            Seattle Seahawks: 293-303 (.492 win % since 1976)
            Comment of Misfortune: Not only has Denver played more games than Seattle, they've won a higher percentage of them, too.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 3-2-1
 
All-Time Playoff Record -
            Denver Broncos: 20-17 (.541 win %)
            Seattle Seahawks: 11-12 (.478 win %)
            Comment of Misfortune: That's holds true for the playoffs as well… Denver has more games and more victories.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 4-2-1

2013 Touchdowns Scored -
            Denver Broncos: 81 (regular season, 76; playoffs, 5)
            Seattle Seahawks: 49 (regular season, 45; playoffs 4)
            Comment of Misfortune: The Broncos offense has been the most prolific offense in NFL history and they have scored almost twice as many touchdowns as the Seahawks this season.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 5-2-1
 
2013 Field Goals Scored -
            Denver Broncos: 30 (regular season, 25; playoffs, 5)
            Seattle Seahawks: 39 (regular season, 33; playoffs, 6)
            Comment of Misfortune: In close, defensive battles, field goals can be of utmost importance. The Seahawks have a significant edge here.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 5-3-1
 
Super Bowl Titles -
            Denver Broncos: 2 ~ Super Bowls XXXII & XXXIII
            Seattle Seahawks: None
            Comment of Misfortune: My grade-school math tells me 2 is a lot more than 0, so this category definitely falls Denver's way.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 6-3-1
 
Other Championships -
            Denver Broncos: None
            Seattle Seahawks: None
            Comment of Misfortune: Since neither of these teams existed before 1960, there wasn't much chance for them to win any other league championships.
            Team Advantage: Draw
            Score: Denver, 6-3-2
 
All-Time Record vs Each Other -
            Denver Broncos: 34-19
            Seattle Seahawks: 19-34
            Comment of Misfortune: The Broncos own the all-time series by fifteen games…
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 7-3-2

Record in Last 10 Games vs Each Other (since December 1998) -
            Denver Broncos: 7-3
            Seattle Seahawks: 3-7
            Comment of Misfortune: …and Denver has dominated all the recent games against the Seahawks going back to December of 1998.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 8-3-2

Biggest All-Time Victory vs Each Other -
            Denver Broncos: 27 points (Denver 41, Seattle 14; November 26, 1989)
            Seattle Seahawks: 28 points (Seattle 42, Denver 14; December 11, 1988)
            Comment of Misfortune: Both blowouts took place in the late eighties, but Seattle's 28 point victory in 1988 is far more impressive than the mere 27 points Denver managed to win by in their 1989 victory.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 8-4-2

 
Total Franchise All-Pro Players -
            Denver Broncos: 36 Players (named a total of 62 times)
            Seattle Seahawks: 18 Players (named a total of 28 times)
            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to Pro's Pros, Denver has had twice as many All-Pro players on their rosters than the Seahawks, despite only being in the league 16 years longer.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 9-4-2

Total Franchise Pro Bowl Players -
            Denver Broncos: 92 Players (named a total of 209 times)
            Seattle Seahawks: 44 Players (named a total of 103 times)
            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to fan balloting, Denver once again has over double the number of players voted to the Pro Bowl and the Broncos have sent their players twice as many times to the glorified flag-football game than Seattle.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 10-4-2

PAC-12 Players on Roster -
            Denver Broncos: 8 - C.J. Anderson (California), Omar Bolden (Arizona State),Sione Fua (Stanford), Winston Justice (USC), Ryan Miller (Colorado), Rahim Moore (UCLA), Cameron Morrah (California), Brock Osweiler (Arizona State)
            Seattle Seahawks: 13 - Doug Baldwin (Stanford), Brandon Browner (Oregon State), Derrick Coleman (UCLA), Jermaine Kearse (Washington), Marshawn Lynch (California), Anthony McCoy (USC), Brandon Mebane (California), Zach Miller (Arizona State), Mike Morgan (USC), Richard Sherman (Stanford), Malcolm Smith (USC), Walter Thurmond (Oregon), Max Unger (Oregon)         
            Comment of Misfortune: What's with all the non-PAC-12 players, Denver? You're far enough west this shouldn't be an issue. Left Coast Advantage - Seattle.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 10-5-2

Team Fans -
            Denver Broncos: "Barrel Man", People on a Rocky Mountain High
            Seattle Seahawks: The 12th Man         
            Comment of Misfortune: Since the 12th Man can generate recordable earthquakes, I have to give them the nod in this category. Not that it will do them any good at the Super Bowl, though, since the game will be played in New Jersey, about as far away from Seattle as you can possibly get and still be in the contintental United States.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 10-6-2

 
Final Judgment:
            Denver clearly has the historical advantage over Seattle, despite only being in existence 16 years longer than the Seahawks.


Check back tomorrow for the predictions of Creative Misfortune for Super Bowl XLVIII…Will either team be a unanimous pick by all prediction systems?

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Seattle's Offense vs Denver's Defense

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing hard-nosed solid football all season long, despite stumbling a bit down the stretch to close out the regular season. The NFC front-runner all season, Seattle has lived up to their expectations so far and now face an extremely difficult test in the Super Bowl against a Denver unit that has been just as dominating on the AFC side of the house. The young Russell Wilson leads the offense along with the help of Marshawn Lynch, a punishing back who will move piles and knock out would be tacklers every chance he can get.

Despite the weapons that Seattle has at their disposal - an up-and-coming star quarterback, a power running game, a solid receiving corps and a strong offensive line - the Seahawks offense will be no match for the Broncos if their defense can't slow down Manning and the most explosive offense in NFL history.

The Broncos, for their part, have improved greatly on defense during the second half of the season. While the offense has slowed a bit during the playoffs, the defense has picked up the slack and have helped punch Denver's ticket to the Super Bowl. The Denver D will have to play better than average if they want to slow down Seattle's power running game so they can get Peyton Manning and his charges back on the field. It's always easier to play defense when your offense gives you a 21-point lead to work with.


Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games


            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points


                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category

Seahwks Offense vs

Denver Defense Allowed

When They Collide…
Rushing Values




Rushing Points

147

139


Rushing Yards

2477

1755

Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard

0.059

0.079

0.069




At their Best (DEF worst)

218 yards

177 yards

198 yards = 13.7 pts = 14 pts
2013 Average

138 yards

  98 yards

118 yards = 8.1 pts = 8 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)

  44 yards

  23 yards

  34 yards = 2.4 pts = 2 pts




Passing Values




Passing Points

239

238


Passing Yards

3532

4520

Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard

0.068

0.053

0.061




At their Best (DEF Worst)

323 yards

470 yards

397 yards = 24.2 pts = 24 pts
2013 Average

196 yards

251 yards

224 yards = 13.7 pts = 14 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)

  89 yards

153 yards

121 yards =   7.4 pts =   7 pts




Projected Score Breakdown

Rushing + Passing 

Combined Points


At their Best

14 pts + 24 pts

         38


2013 Average

  8 pts + 14 pts

         22


At their Worst

  2 pts +   7 pts

           9


Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Score for the Seattle Seahawks: 23 points

Based on the Denver projections from yesterday versus the Seattle defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Seattle to win a very close shoot-out, 38-35.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect another close game with Denver coming out on top, 24-21.

If a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle takes place, expect the Seahawks to win on the strength of field goals by the score of 9-7.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if Seattle hopes to win, they need their offense to be on fire or their defense to be on fire. If both units play average, expect the Broncos to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after the game.


Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Denver's Offense vs Seattle's Defense

The Denver Broncos are a team that crushes their opponent's spirit by scoring 35+ points a game. Few teams have won as often as the Broncos the past two seasons - or by so much. Peyton Manning, nearly forced to retire two seasons ago because of neck injuries, can pick apart a defense like few other quarterbacks in NFL history. His ability to read a defense and know exactly where to go each and every play will force Seattle's talented secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are among the many versatile weapons Manning has at his disposal.

While the Broncos are known for their passing game, their ability to run the football may be the key to winning the Super Bowl for them. Their offensive line has managed to stay reasonably healthy this season and has kept aggressive defenses from wrecking havoc with the timing of their passing game. This has also helped Denver open up its running game. Knowshon Moreno finished the season with over 1,000 yards rushing and Montee Ball added another 500 yards.

The Seattle Sehawks defense has played lights out football during their run through the regular season and playoffs. Just as versatile on defense as the Broncos are on offense, Seattle's defensive front seven look to completely disrupt the high-powered Denver attack. If Seattle's defense can slow down the Broncos enough to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will be able to give Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch a fighting chance to keep pace with Peyton Manning and company. The Seahawks can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Broncos if their offense can give them any kind of lead during the game.

Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category

Broncos Offense vs

Seahawks Defense Allowed

When They Collide…
Rushing Values




Rushing Points

149

67


Rushing Yards

2113

1895

Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard

0.071

0.035

0.053




At their Best (DEF worst)

280 yards

205 yards

243 yards = 12.9 pts = 13 pts
2013 Average

117 yards

105 yards

111 yards = 5.9 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)

  18 yards

  13 yards

  16 yards = 0.9 pts = 1 pt




Passing Values




Passing Points

423

151


Passing Yards

6074

3200

Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard

0.070

0.047

0.059




At their Best (DEF Worst)

445 yards

325 yards

385 yards = 22.7 pts = 23 pts
2013 Average

337 yards

283 yards

310 yards = 18.3 pts = 18 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)

132 yards

107 yards

120 yards = 7.1 pts   =   7 pts




Projected Score Breakdown

Rushing + Passing 

Combined Points


At their Best

13 pts + 23 pts

          36


2013 Average

  6 pts + 18 pts

          24


At their Worst

  1 pt  +   7 pts

           8


Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Score for the Denver Broncos: 23 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Seattle Seahawks offense compares to the Denver Broncos defense. Will the numbers for the Seahawks put them over the 23 points the Broncos are projected to score?