Friday, February 6, 2015

Creative Misfortune - Blog Sign-Off

Creative Misfortune’s fourth and final blog season has come to an end. Thanks to all of you who have visited this site and taken an interest in my weekly predictions, power rankings, and what would happen "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." feature. I've had a lot of fun maintaining these pages, but it is now time for me to move on to bigger and better things.

I bid you all a very fond farewell.


May your Creativity know no bounds and

May Misfortune and Folly never find you!


 

 

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Tournament of Past Champions - 2014 Title Defense of the '99 St. Louis Rams

During the Spring of 2011, 128 of the greatest teams in football history came together and competed in Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions. The tournament, comprised of 35 league champions (teams from the NFL, AFL and AAFC, who won their titles between 1941 and 1965), 45 Super Bowl champions, 45 Super Bowl runner-ups looking for redemption and 3 wild-cards pulled from the ranks of those modern-era teams so great during the regular season the football world was shocked when they did not make it to the Super Bowl (the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, the 2005 Indianapolis Colts and the 1987 San Francisco 49ers), proved to be a grueling task for all but the hardiest of teams.

In a single elimination tournament, with virtual game results determined by What If Sports computer simulations, 128 of the greatest teams in football history fought for supremacy and only one team – the 1999 St. Louis Rams, aka The Greatest Show on Turf – emerged victorious.

The road to the title for St. Louis was not an easy one. The Rams opened their tournament with a dominating 21-13 victory over the 1958 Baltimore Colts and really hit their stride in the second round when they absolutely crushed the 2001 New England Patriots, 29-12, in a matchup where they won every possible simulated game and avenged a real-world loss by the 2001 St. Louis Rams in the process.

St. Louis struggled mightily against the ’95 Cowboys in round three, advancing despite winning less than half of the simulations, but managed to find their high gear again when they defeated the 1962 Packers in their Fortunate 16 matchup, 21-14.

The Greatest Show on Turf punched their ticket to the Elite 4 with a gutty, one-point victory over the #1 seeded 1985 Chicago Bears and then rolled into the title game after defeating Brett Favre and the 1996 Green Bay Packers. A victory over the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers completed St. Louis’ championship run.

Four years removed from their outstanding Tournament of Past Champions victory, two new upstarts are set to challenge the ‘99 Rams for the title of greatest team ever – this season’s Super Bowl entrants, the 2014 New England Patriots and the 2014 Seattle Seahawks.

The Tournament of Past Champions games are played using the What If Sports SimMatchups software (try it for yourself here) that allows you to simulate historical games as many times as you would like with teams using different “offensive playbooks” while competing in both home, away or neutral game sites. To determine the title defense results, each matchup will be based on the result of 20 head-to-head simulations.
For example, to decide who would prevail – the 1959 Baltimore Colts or the 2009 Indianapolis Colts, 20 game simulations will be run – 10 at the home stadium of the ’59 Colts and 10 at the home stadium of the 2009 Colts.

Each of those 10 simulations will be broken down into “playbook” matchups in order to better gauge the overall strength and weaknesses of each team taking part in the tournament. The What If Sports game engine provides four separate playbook options – Balanced, Run Heavy, Pass Heavy and West Coast style. Over the course of a single, 20-game sim matchup, teams will play eight Balanced sims, four Pass Heavy sims, four Run Heavy sims and four West Coast style sims.

The final score for each team in the virtual matchup will be the average of the team’s scores over the course of all 20 simulations. The higher average “wins” the virtual matchup. In case teams are tied after 20 simulations, an additional 10 overtime sims, five at each team’s home stadium, will be played until one winner emerges.
Results for each virtual matchup are recorded as follows:

1st2nd3rd4thFinal
1959 Baltimore Colts7710024
2009 Indianapolis Colts770721
*Baltimore won 14 of 20 simulations


Now, without further ado, the 1999 St. Louis Rams defend their Tournament of Past Champions title against this year’s Super Bowl teams…

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2014 Seattle Seahawks

1st2nd3rd4thFinal
2014 Seattle Seahawks 073717
1999 St. Louis Rams 1407021
*St. Louis won 14 of 20 simulations

St. Louis jumped out with quick touchdowns on their first two drives to take an early, commanding 14-0 lead in the first quarter. The Seahawks used their run game to slow the Rams down in the second quarter, and scored a touchdown midway through the quarter to pull within 7 at halftime.

The Rams reestablished control of the game after the break, scoring a quick touchdown to go up 21-7. Seattle made it 21-10 with a field goal to end the 3rd quarter, but still trailed by two scores heading into the final stanza of their virtual matchup. St. Louis, content with their two-score lead, controlled the remainder of the game until Seattle managed to score a late touchdown with just over three minutes left in the game. The subsequent onside kick failed and the Rams ran out the clock to preserve their 21-17 victory.



1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2014 New England Patriots


1st2nd3rd4thFinal
2014 New England Patriots070714
1999 St. Louis Rams 1030026
*St. Louis won 15 of 20 simulations

The Rams traded punts with the Patriots before St. Louis scored on their next two drives. The first quarter ended with them ahead 10-0. St. Louis tacked on a field goal midway through the second quarter to take a two-touchdown lead before New England answered with a touchdown of their own to pull within one score at halftime.

St. Louis dominated the third quarter, scoring every time they touched the ball. After one touchdown and two field goals put them up by a commanding 26-7 lead, the Rams continued to control the game until the Patriots finally managed to score a last second, meaningless touchdown as time expired.



Congratulations again to the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

Still Creative Misfortune’s reigning Champion of Champions.



On Friday, the final blog announcement of Creative Misfortune’s fourth season…

Monday, February 2, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX

Congratulations to the 
New England Patriots!

For the fourth time this century, New England has a championship team to cheer about! How nice for Patriots fans everywhere.


Check back on Wednesday when the Super Bowl XLIX teams, the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks face off against the reigning Creative Misfortune 'Tournament of Past Champions' Champion, the 1999 St. Louis Rams, to see if either of them can defeat The Greatest Show on Turf...