Creative Misfortune - Blog Sign-Off

Creative Misfortune’s fourth and final blog season has come to an end. Thanks to all of you who have visited this site and taken an interest in my weekly predictions, power rankings, and what would happen "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." feature. I've had a lot of fun maintaining these pages, but it is now time for me to move on to bigger and better things.

I bid you all a very fond farewell.

May your Creativity know no bounds and

May Misfortune and Folly never find you!

 

 

Tournament of Past Champions - 2014 Title Defense of the '99 St. Louis Rams

During the Spring of 2011, 128 of the greatest teams in football history came together and competed in Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions. The tournament, comprised of 35 league champions (teams from the NFL, AFL and AAFC, who won their titles between 1941 and 1965), 45 Super Bowl champions, 45 Super Bowl runner-ups looking for redemption and 3 wild-cards pulled from the ranks of those modern-era teams so great during the regular season the football world was shocked when they did not make it to the Super Bowl (the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, the 2005 Indianapolis Colts and the 1987 San Francisco 49ers), proved to be a grueling task for all but the hardiest of teams.

In a single elimination tournament, with virtual game results determined by What If Sports computer simulations, 128 of the greatest teams in football history fought for supremacy and only one team – the 1999 St. Louis Rams, aka The Greatest Show on Turf – emerged victorious.

The road to the title for St. Louis was not an easy one. The Rams opened their tournament with a dominating 21-13 victory over the 1958 Baltimore Colts and really hit their stride in the second round when they absolutely crushed the 2001 New England Patriots, 29-12, in a matchup where they won every possible simulated game and avenged a real-world loss by the 2001 St. Louis Rams in the process.

St. Louis struggled mightily against the ’95 Cowboys in round three, advancing despite winning less than half of the simulations, but managed to find their high gear again when they defeated the 1962 Packers in their Fortunate 16 matchup, 21-14.

The Greatest Show on Turf punched their ticket to the Elite 4 with a gutty, one-point victory over the #1 seeded 1985 Chicago Bears and then rolled into the title game after defeating Brett Favre and the 1996 Green Bay Packers. A victory over the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers completed St. Louis’ championship run.

Four years removed from their outstanding Tournament of Past Champions victory, two new upstarts are set to challenge the ‘99 Rams for the title of greatest team ever – this season’s Super Bowl entrants, the 2014 New England Patriots and the 2014 Seattle Seahawks.

The Tournament of Past Champions games are played using the What If Sports SimMatchups software (try it for yourself here) that allows you to simulate historical games as many times as you would like with teams using different “offensive playbooks” while competing in both home, away or neutral game sites. To determine the title defense results, each matchup will be based on the result of 20 head-to-head simulations.

For example, to decide who would prevail – the 1959 Baltimore Colts or the 2009 Indianapolis Colts, 20 game simulations will be run – 10 at the home stadium of the ’59 Colts and 10 at the home stadium of the 2009 Colts.

Each of those 10 simulations will be broken down into “playbook” matchups in order to better gauge the overall strength and weaknesses of each team taking part in the tournament. The What If Sports game engine provides four separate playbook options – Balanced, Run Heavy, Pass Heavy and West Coast style. Over the course of a single, 20-game sim matchup, teams will play eight Balanced sims, four Pass Heavy sims, four Run Heavy sims and four West Coast style sims.

The final score for each team in the virtual matchup will be the average of the team’s scores over the course of all 20 simulations. The higher average “wins” the virtual matchup. In case teams are tied after 20 simulations, an additional 10 overtime sims, five at each team’s home stadium, will be played until one winner emerges.

Results for each virtual matchup are recorded as follows:

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		1959 Baltimore Colts	7	7	10	0	24
		2009 Indianapolis Colts	7	7	0	7	21
		*Baltimore won 14 of 20 simulations

Now, without further ado, the 1999 St. Louis Rams defend their Tournament of Past Champions title against this year’s Super Bowl teams…

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2014 Seattle Seahawks

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		2014 Seattle Seahawks	0	7	3	7	17
		1999 St. Louis Rams	14	0	7	0	21
		*St. Louis won 14 of 20 simulations

St. Louis jumped out with quick touchdowns on their first two drives to take an early, commanding 14-0 lead in the first quarter. The Seahawks used their run game to slow the Rams down in the second quarter, and scored a touchdown midway through the quarter to pull within 7 at halftime.

The Rams reestablished control of the game after the break, scoring a quick touchdown to go up 21-7. Seattle made it 21-10 with a field goal to end the 3rd quarter, but still trailed by two scores heading into the final stanza of their virtual matchup. St. Louis, content with their two-score lead, controlled the remainder of the game until Seattle managed to score a late touchdown with just over three minutes left in the game. The subsequent onside kick failed and the Rams ran out the clock to preserve their 21-17 victory.

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2014 New England Patriots

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		2014 New England Patriots	0	7	0	7	14
		1999 St. Louis Rams	10	3	0	0	26
		*St. Louis won 15 of 20 simulations

The Rams traded punts with the Patriots before St. Louis scored on their next two drives. The first quarter ended with them ahead 10-0. St. Louis tacked on a field goal midway through the second quarter to take a two-touchdown lead before New England answered with a touchdown of their own to pull within one score at halftime.

St. Louis dominated the third quarter, scoring every time they touched the ball. After one touchdown and two field goals put them up by a commanding 26-7 lead, the Rams continued to control the game until the Patriots finally managed to score a last second, meaningless touchdown as time expired.

Congratulations again to the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

Still Creative Misfortune’s reigning Champion of Champions.

On Friday, the final blog announcement of Creative Misfortune’s fourth season…

Super Bowl XLIX

Congratulations to the 
New England Patriots!

For the fourth time this century, New England has a championship team to cheer about! How nice for Patriots fans everywhere.


Check back on Wednesday when the Super Bowl XLIX teams, the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks face off against the reigning Creative Misfortune 'Tournament of Past Champions' Champion, the 1999 St. Louis Rams, to see if either of them can defeat The Greatest Show on Turf...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Super Bowl XLIX

After all has been said, it is time to get this game done!

Super Bowl XLIX Game Predictions:

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 1

     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 1

     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 1. Patriots by 1, Over/Under 47.5

     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 1. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.742 - 0.737

     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. The Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 118-53 in Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Misfortune Bowl IV this season. That fantasy victory will surely hold up in the real Super Bowl.

     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Both teams at 14-4, "home team" wins

     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. It is only 1,401 miles from Seattle, Washington to the University of Phoenix Stadium, whereas it is 2,655 miles from Foxborough, Massachusetts to the University of Phoenix Stadium. Seattle gets the nod for home-field advantage.

Here's hoping for Double Overtime!

Super Bowl XLIX Preview - Franchise Comparisons - New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks

Two great franchises are set to battle it out in Arizona on Sunday. We’ve compared the offenses. We’ve compared the defenses. Now let’s compare the organizations as a whole and see how they stack up to each other.

Founded -

New England Patriots: 1960

Seattle Seahawks: 1976

Comment of Misfortune: New England is older by 16 years and was part of the original American Football League before it joined with the NFL.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 1-0

Stadium Capacity -

New England Patriots: 68,756

Seattle Seahawks: 67,000

Comment of Misfortune: Since 68,756 is a few more drunken fans than 67,000, I gotta rule in favor of New England.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 2-0

Uniform Colors -

New England Patriots: Dark Blue, Red, White, and Silver

Seattle Seahawks: College Navy and Action Green with Wolf Gray accents

Comment of Misfortune: Both teams have a variation of Navy Blue in their colors, so that's a draw. The Red, White and Silver and Action Green accents kind of offset each other. Wolf Gray, however, is a very cool color and tips this category in favor of the Seahawks.

Team Advantage: Seattle

Score: New England, 2-1

Nickname -

New England Patriots: Evil Empire, Homeland Defense, Patsies

Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks, Legion of Boom, Seagulls, Seachickens

Comment of Misfortune: I know what Patriots are and I have a pretty good idea what a mythical Seahawk may look like. When I hear Evil Empire I am immediately reminded of Star Wars, the menace of the Emperor. Legion of Boom, however, sounds like some cool threat that Spider Man or Superman would have to fight. Gotta give the nod to Seattle.

Team Advantage: Seattle

Score: Tied, 2-2

2014 Record -

New England Patriots: 12-4 (2-0)

Seattle Seahawks: 12-4 (2-0)

Comment of Misfortune: Both teams finished the season with 12 wins and neither have lost in the playoffs yet, so I have to call this category a draw.

Team Advantage: Draw

Score: Tied, 2-2-1

All-Time Regular Season Record -

New England Patriots: 450-377-9 (.538 win % since 1960)

Seattle Seahawks: 306-307 (.499 win % since 1976)

Comment of Misfortune: Not only has New England played more games than Seattle, they've won a higher percentage of them, too.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 3-2-1

All-Time Playoff Record -

New England Patriots: 27-18 (.600 win %)

Seattle Seahawks: 14-12 (.538 win %)

Comment of Misfortune: That's holds true for the playoffs as well… New England has more games and more victories.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 4-2-1

2014 Touchdowns Scored -

New England Patriots: 63 (regular season, 52; playoffs, 11)

Seattle Seahawks: 51 (regular season, 43; playoffs, 8)

Comment of Misfortune: The Patriots have scored more touchdowns, both in the regular season and the playoffs, than the Seahawks.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 5-2-1

2014 Field Goals Scored -

New England Patriots: 35 (regular season, 34; playoffs, 1)

Seattle Seahawks: 32 (regular season, 31; playoffs, 1)

Comment of Misfortune: In close, defensive battles, field goals can be of utmost importance. The Patriots have the edge here.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 6-2-1

Super Bowl Titles -

New England Patriots: 3 ~ Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, and XXXIX

Seattle Seahawks: 1 ~ Super Bowl XLVIII

Comment of Misfortune: My grade-school math tells me 3 is a lot more than 1, so this category definitely falls New England's way.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 7-2-1

Other Championships -

New England Patriots: None

Seattle Seahawks: None

Comment of Misfortune: Since neither of these teams existed before 1960, there wasn't much chance for them to win any other league championships.

Team Advantage: Draw

Score: New England, 7-2-2

All-Time Record vs Each Other -

New England Patriots: 8-8

Seattle Seahawks: 8-8

Comment of Misfortune: The teams are a perfect .500 against each other. Super Bowl XLIX will tilt the head-to-head records significantly in favor of one or the other

Team Advantage: Draw

Score: New England, 7-2-3

Record in Last 10 Games vs Each Other (since December 1986) -

New England Patriots: 3-7

Seattle Seahawks: 7-3

Comment of Misfortune: Seattle has dominated the head-to-head matchups since 1986, winning 7 out of their last 10 matchups.

Team Advantage: Seattle

Score: New England, 7-3-3

Biggest All-Time Victory vs Each Other -

New England Patriots: 31 points (New England 31, Seattle 0; October 9, 1977)

Seattle Seahawks: 21 points (Seattle 24, New England 3; September 24, 1989)

Comment of Misfortune: Both blowouts took place over 25 years ago, so neither is relevant to today, but New England's 31 point victory in 1977 is far more impressive than the mere 21 points Seattle managed to win by in their 1989 victory.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 8-3-3

Total Franchise All-Pro Players -

New England Patriots: 32 Players (named a total of 53 times)

Seattle Seahawks: 19 Players (named a total of 31 times)

Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to Pro's Pros, New England has had almost twice as many All-Pro players on their rosters than the Seahawks, despite only being in the league 16 years longer.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 9-3-3

Total Franchise Pro Bowl Players -

New England Patriots: 87 Players (named a total of 211 times)

Seattle Seahawks: 44 Players (named a total of 103 times)

Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to fan balloting, New England once again has double the number of players voted to the Pro Bowl and the Patriots have sent their players twice as many times to the glorified flag-football game than Seattle.

Team Advantage: New England

Score: New England, 10-3-3

PAC-12 Players on Roster -

New England Patriots: 11 - Akeem Ayers (UCLA), LeGarrette Blount (Oregon), Brandon Browner (Oregon State), Patrick Chung (Oregon), Cameron Fleming (Stanford), Tyler Gaffner (Stanford), Rob Gronkowski (Arizona), Sealver Siliga (Utah), Matthew Slater (UCLA), Nate Solder (Colorado), Shane Vereen (California)

Seattle Seahawks: 14 - Doug Baldwin (Stanford), Derrick Coleman (UCLA), Jermaine Kearse (Washington), Marshawn Lynch (California), Cassius Marsh (UCLA), Anthony McCoy (USC), Brandon Mebane (California), Zach Miller (Arizona State), Mike Morgan (USC), Paul Richardson (Colorado), Richard Sherman (Stanford), Malcolm Smith (USC), Will Tukuafu (Oregon), Max Unger (Oregon)

Comment of Misfortune: Nice to see a West Coast team filled with a large number of West Coast players! Left Coast Advantage - Seattle.

Team Advantage: Seattle

Score: New England, 10-4-3

Team Fans -

New England Patriots: New Englanders

Seattle Seahawks: The 12th Man

Comment of Misfortune: Since the 12th Man can generate recordable earthquakes, I have to give them the nod in this category. Not that it will do them any good at the Super Bowl, though, since the game will be played in Arizona and not the Pacific Northwest.

Team Advantage: Seattle

Score: New England, 10-5-3

Final Judgment:

New England clearly has the historical advantage over Seattle, despite only being in existence 16 years longer than the Seahawks, although Seattle has had far fewer scandals tied to its name than the Patriots have in recent years.

If history holds true, the Patriots will raise the championship trophy this weekend.

If we are truly witnessing the end of one dynasty and the beginning of the next, the Seahawks will reign supreme in Arizona.

 

Check back tomorrow for the predictions of Creative Misfortune for Super Bowl XLIX…Will either team be a unanimous pick by all prediction systems?

 

Super Bowl XLIX Preview - Seattle's Offense vs New England's Defense

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing hard-nosed, solid football all season long. Despite stumbling a bit early in the season, they have played well when it mattered most – aside from the first 55 minutes of the NFC Championship game. A favorite all season, Seattle has lived up to their expectations so far and now face an extremely difficult test in the Super Bowl against a New England unit that has been just as dominating on the AFC side of the house. The young Russell Wilson leads the offense along with the help of Marshawn Lynch, a punishing back who will move piles and knock out would be tacklers every chance he can get.

Despite the weapons that Seattle has at their disposal – a star quarterback, a power running game, a solid receiving corps and a strong offensive line - the Seahawks offense will be no match for the crafty Patriots if their defense can't slow down Brady and the interesting array of formations New England has in store for them.

The Patriots, for their part, have improved greatly on defense during the second half of the season. The defense is not one that strikes fear into their opponents, since their offense often gives them a good lead to work with, but New England has played solid defense throughout the season, aside from a game or two. The Patriots will have to play better than average defense if they want to slow down Seattle's power running game so they can get Tom Brady and his charges back on the field. It's always easier to play defense when your offense gives you a 21-point lead to work with.

Super Bowl XLIX Statistical Matchup

*Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

Stat Keys:

Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing

Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Seahwks Offense vs	NE Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	186	85
Rushing Yards	3056	1888	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.061	0.045	0.053
At their Best (DEF worst)	350 yards	218 yards	284 yards = 15.1 pts = 15 pts
2014 Average	170 yards	105 yards	138 yards = 7.3 pts = 7 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	80 yards	19 yards	50 yards = 2.6 pts = 3 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	187	212
Passing Yards	3701	4255	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.051	0.050	0.051
At their Best (DEF Worst)	329 yards	429 yards	379 yards = 19.3 pts = 19 pts
2014 Average	206 yards	236 yards	221 yards = 11.3 pts = 11 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	126 yards	126 yards	126 yards = 6.4 pts = 6 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	15 pts + 19 pts	34
2014 Average	7 pts + 11 pts	18
At their Worst	3 pts + 6 pts	9

Projected Super Bowl XLIX Score for the Seattle Seahawks: 20 points

Based on the New England projections from yesterday versus the Seattle defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Seattle to win a very close shoot-out, 34-33.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect the game to go into overtime with both teams having scored 17 points. All bets are off at that point.

If a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle takes place, expect the Seahawks to win on the strength of field goals by the score of 9-7.

If Seattle comes out playing perfect and New England plays like they have in recent Super Bowls, expect the Seahawks to cruise to their second straight Super Bowl title by a projected score of 34-7.

If New England comes out playing perfect and Seattle plays like they did the first three-and-a-half quarters against Green Bay in the NFC Championship game, expect the Patriots to run away with their fourth Super Bowl championship by a projected score of 33-9.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if the Patriots hope to win, they need their offense to be on fire or their defense to be on fire. If both units play average, expect the Seahawks to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after the game.

Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…

 

Super Bowl XLIX Preview - New England's Offense vs Seattle's Defense

The New England Patriots are a team that crushes their opponent's spirit by scoring 35+ points a game. Few teams have won as often as the Patriots over the past decade - or by such outrageous, obnoxious numbers. Tom Brady can pick apart a defense like few other quarterbacks in NFL history. His ability to read a defense and know exactly where to go each and every play will force Seattle's secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell are among the many, versatile weapons Brady has at his disposal.

While the Patriots are not traditionally known for their ability to run the football, their run game has exploded late in the season behind the powerful running of LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. The offensive line is playing outstanding as well and has kept aggressive defenses from wrecking havoc with the timing of their passing game.

The Seattle Seahawks defense has played lights out football during their run through the regular season and playoffs. Just as versatile on defense as the Patriots are on offense, Seattle's defensive front seven look to completely disrupt the high-powered New England attack. If Seattle's defense can slow down the Patriots enough to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will be able to give Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch a fighting chance to keep pace with Tom Brady and company. The Seahawks can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Patriots if their offense can give them an early lead. They can’t expect a miracle finish two games in row.

Super Bowl XLIX Statistical Matchup

*Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

Stat Keys:

Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing

Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Patriots Offense vs	Seahawks Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	143	87
Rushing Yards	1918	1571	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.075	0.055	0.065
At their Best (DEF worst)	246 yards	190 yards	218 yards = 14.2 pts = 14 pts
2014 Average	107 yards	87 yards	97 yards = 6.3 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	14 yards	29 yards	22 yards = 1.4 pts = 1 pt
Passing Values
Passing Points	291	151
Passing Yards	4749	3371	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.061	0.045	0.053
At their Best (DEF Worst)	408 yards	296 yards	352 yards = 18.7 pts = 19 pts
2014 Average	264 yards	187 yards	226 yards = 12.0 pts = 12 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	142 yards	82 yards	112 yards = 5.9 pts = 6 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	14 pts + 19 pts	33
2014 Average	6 pts + 12 pts	18
At their Worst	1 pt + 6 pts	7

Projected Super Bowl XLIX Score for the New England Patriots: 20 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Seattle Seahawks offense compares to the New England Patriots defense. Will the numbers for the Seahawks put them over the 20 points the Patriots are projected to score?