Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2014)

The NFL playoffs are finally here. Let's get wild, everybody!

Wild Card Game Predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 7. Panthers by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.442
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.599
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.535
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.576
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next Thursday for Creative Misfortune's post-Wild Card round power rankings.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 15 (2014)

Since I have both of these defenses starting in various fantasy leagues, I'm really hoping this slugfest goes into overtime with a final score of 16-14. Each team gets two defensive touchdowns and a safety in the extra period wins the game! Hey, it could happen. 

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 5. Rams by 4.5, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.585 - 0.500
     Fantasy Projection Pick: St. Louis Rams by 1. St. Louis Rams projected to win by a fantasy score of 65-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 10-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 15 slate...

Season Recap - 2013 Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals



Final Record: 10-6
Finished: 3rd Place in the NFC West
2014 Draft Position: 20th

Preseason Ranking: 28

Week 1: Lost at the St. Louis Rams, 27-24
    Ranked - 25
    Palmer to Fitzgerald could be big this year… the Cardinals still are outside the playoff picture, but they could surprise some people before the season is over.

Week 2: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 25-21
    Ranked - 19
    A great comeback win at home for the Cardinals.

Week 3: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 31-7
    Ranked - 24
    Safety Rashad Johnson lost the tip of his finger in the game last week against the Saints… and stayed in the game. If only heart always superceded talent on the scoreboard, the Cardinals would have been victors on Sunday.

Week 4: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 13-10
    Ranked - 19
    A small, hard-fought victory last weekend as the Cardinals continue to try and discover their identity.

Week 5: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 22-6
    Ranked - 14
    The offense is still struggling to find its rhythm, but the defense played lights out against the Panthers.

Week 6: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 32-20
    Ranked - 19
    An uncharacteristic fumble by Larry Fitzgerald hurt their chances against the 49ers. Even if he holds onto the ball, though, the 49ers would have dropped the Cardinals back to .500.

Week 7: Lost to the Seattle Seahawks, 34-22
    Ranked - 20
    The combination of Carson Palmer and a suspect running game keeps the Cardinals from soaring.

Week 8: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 27-13
    Ranked - 15
    Huge win for the Cardinals and a huge day for their running game. Arizona is still overmatched in the tough NFC West, though.

Week 9: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 17
    The Cardinals have a long way to go in the tough NFC West, but being able to establish a running game will help them in the second half of the season.

Week 10: Defeated the Houston Texans, 27-24
    Ranked - 14
    A surging team in the NFC, they have a nice shot at stealing a wild card spot.

Week 11: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 27-14
    Ranked - 13
    Could the Cardinals be for real? A few more wins and they could very well be in the playoffs.

Week 12: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 40-11
    Ranked - 9
    The Cardinals are quietly becoming the team nobody wants to face.

Week 13: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 24-21
    Ranked - 13
    The loss to the Eagles could be huge come tiebreaker time if the Cardinals can get back on the winning track.

Week 14: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 30-10
    Ranked - 10
    It's still an uphill climb for the Cardinals to make the playoffs, but they are still very much in the mix.

Week 15: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 37-34
    Ranked - 10
    Despite the scare over the weekend, the Cardinals are right in the middle of the NFC Wild Card chase.

Week 16: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 17-10
    Ranked - 10
    The Cardinals are in the playoffs as a wild card if they win and the Saints lose.

Week 17: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 23-20

Final Ranking: 13


Next week the season recaps get underway for the NFL's elite 2013 playoff teams, starting with the Green Bay Packers...

Season Recap - 2011 Arizona Cardinals

Final Record: 8-8 Finished: 2^nd Place in the NFC West
2012 Draft Position: 13^th

Preseason Ranking: 19

Week 1: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 28-21
    Ranked - 15
    Arizona showed a lot of promise… and a lot to be concerned about during their narrow victory over the Carolina Panthers. If the defense does not have an answer for a rookie quarterback in his first real game as a pro, how will they fare when an elite veteran comes to town?

Week 2: Lost at the Washington Redskins, 22-21
    Ranked - 21
    The aerial attack of Kolb to Fitzgerald seems to be coming along nicely, yet Arizona still has too many question marks on their roster for anybody to tell if they are for real or not. Being real in the NFC West is one thing, being real in the rest of the NFL is totally different.

Week 3: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 13-10
    Ranked - 23
    Note to self: We weren't built to run. Throw me the ball! Signed, Larry Fitzgerald.

Week 4: Lost to the New York Giants, 31-27
    Ranked - 23
    The Cardinals showed they can run the ball. We always knew they could pass. Now can they just play some fourth quarter defense?

Week 5: Lost at the Minnesota Vikings, 34-10
    Ranked - 26
    Kolb benched. Defense struggling. Offense thinking about becoming run-first. So much for the Cardinals making a run this year.

Week 6: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 24     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Larry Fitzgerald: There are big Steelers in the stadium, Kolb!
    Kevin Kolb: Oh, that's just our opponent, Larry.
    Larry Fitzgerald: I hate the Steelers, Kolb! I hate 'em!
    Kevin Kolb: Come on! Get over the Super Bowl loss, will ya!

Week 7: Lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 32-20
    Ranked - 27
    It's still hard to believe this team has fallen so low after being in the Super Bowl just a few seasons ago. For all of you out there clambering for Peyton Manning to be MVP this season after the Colts' dreadful start, I give you exhibit B for your argument: the Arizona Cardinals in the years since Kurt Warner retired.

Week 8: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 30-27
    Ranked - 27
    Fitzgerald will be hard-pressed to make his run to the Hall of Fame if the Cardinals can’t get him a decent quarterback in the next few years.

Week 9: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 19-13
    Ranked - 25
    How careless do you have to be to give up two safeties in a single quarter? Teams can go years without giving up two safeties…

Week 10: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 21-17
    Ranked - 21
    Could a Skelton-Kolb quarterback controversy be on the horizon? That certainly doesn't have the same ring as Montana-Young, does it?

Week 11: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 23-7
    Ranked - 24
    Who will start for Arizona once Kolb is back to 100%? Does it even matter?

Week 12: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 23-20
    Ranked - 23
    The offense and defense may not be doing much, but at least the Special Teams unit is making people pay attention.

Week 13: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 19-13
    Ranked - 22
    Sometimes the only thing better than calling a timeout is not calling a timeout. It's worked for Andy Reid all these years, it certainly worked for Ken Whisenhunt last Sunday.

Week 14: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 21-19
    Ranked - 21
    Just when you think the Cardinals are done, they turn spoiler.

Week 15: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 20-17
    Ranked - 21
    Could the Cardinals actually sneak into a Wild Card spot? The odds are not in their favor by any means, but for Arizona to even be part of the discussion after the way the season started is worthy of note.

Week 16: Lost at the Cincinnati Bengals, 23-16
    Ranked - 22
    Kolb is back and, even if the season is lost, he has a starting job in 2012 to play for.

Week 17: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 23-20


Final Ranking: 19

Tomorrow, the 2011 Dallas Cowboys...

Season Recap - 2010 Arizona Cardinals

Final Record: 5-11

Finished: 4^th Place in the NFC West

2011 Draft Position: 5^th

Preseason Ranking:   17
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

I was very sad to hear last spring that Kurt Warner had, in fact, decided to retire. Never has there been a player so gracious in defeat, so humble in victory and so thankful for the opportunities he was given. He made the most of his second chances in the NFL and when concussions dimmed the prospects of his continued success, a trip to the desert for one last opportunity proved he still had what it took to play. Few quarterbacks have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. Fewer quarterbacks still have ever been so down and out – literally out of the league bagging groceries for a living – as Kurt Warner and managed to come back into prominence. Even in retirement, he has played no media games, as other superstar quarterbacks are wont to do. He said he would retire and he did. What a novel idea.

Warner’s retirement puts the focus of the Cardinals offense back squarely on Matt Leinert. The starting job is his to lose. Though the Cardinals seem to have faith in his ability to step in and fill the void left by Warner, they still signed Derek Anderson during the offseason to back-up and even challenge Leinert for playing time. The two quarterbacks are familiar with each other, having met while attending high school all-star camps back when they were 17. While in college, Leinert’s USC Trojans squared off against Anderson’s Oregon State Beavers in 2004 and USC came away with a 28-20 victory.

Both quarterbacks were less than perfect in their preseason opener against the Texans. Leinert threw the ball accurately, connecting on 6 of 7 passes for 49 yards, but was sacked multiple times and fumbled a handoff. Anderson managed to throw a TD pass, but also hit Texan defensive backs with two passes and hurt his chances to put more pressure on the coaching staff to move him up to the starting role.

For now, by default, Leinert remains the guy in Arizona. The entire first-team offense struggled against the Texans, so it’s still too early to blame Leinert directly. With the competition in camp heating up as the regular season approaches, he’ll have to distance himself from Anderson if he ever wants to be anything more in the NFL than a footnote in Kurt Warner’s bio.

Week 1: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 17-13

Ranked – 6

Surprised? So am I, but despite 25 fumbles, Arizona lays a strong claim to the elusive NFC West crown.

Week 2: Lost at Atlanta Falcons, 41-7

Ranked – 19

            In an aerial battle, the Falcons emerged the true birds of prey. At least Oakland comes to Phoenix next week. Nothing helps you get over a whipping like playing the Raiders the following week. 

Week 3: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 24-23

Ranked – 15

You dodged a bullet on Sunday. Multiple bullets. A team of your caliber shouldn't need to get lucky to beat teams like the Oakland Raiders.

Week 4: Lost at San Diego Chargers, 41-10

Ranked – 19

Any chance Warner will give up his dancing shoes and return to Arizona? Just four games into the season and the Cardinals are already on to their third quarterback.

Week 5: Defeated the New Orleans Saints, 30-20

Ranked – 18

Cardinals make the most of the Saints' mistakes and now have the inside track to the NFC West title.

Week 6: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 19

The bye week should only help Max Hall gain more confidence before his next start.

Week 7: Lost at Seattle Seahawks, 22-10

Ranked – 19

The defense shows some potential and the offense could explode if a quarterback ever emerged with enough accuracy to hit the talented wide receivers.

Week 8: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 38-35

Ranked – 27

Finally, the offense gets things moving only to have the defense fall flat on its face.

Week 9: Lost at Minnesota Vikings, 27-24

Ranked – 26

The Cardinals showed a lot of spirit on Sunday until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Like the 49ers, their season can still be salvaged.

Week 10: Lost to Seattle Seahawks, 36-18

Ranked – 27

After looking so good on the road against Minnesota, the Cardinals get pasted in the desert by birds who have shown very little life in recent weeks.

Week 11: Lost at Kansas City Chiefs, 31-13

Ranked – 30

Larry Fitzgerald isn't happy and wants to feast on caviar instead of the garbage Arizona has been serving. That doesn't bode well for next season.

Week 12: Lost to San Francisco 49ers, 27-6

Ranked – 29

All laughing aside, the Cardinals are still only two games out of first-place in the NFC West, but if they can't beat the other NFC West teams, how pathetic must they be?

Week 13: Lost to St. Louis Rams, 19-6

Ranked – 31 (ROCKY WEEK!)

Reporter: Why do you wanna keep playing?

            Derek Anderson: Because I can't sing or dance.

Week 14: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 43-13

Ranked – 26

It's nice to know the Cardinals can embarrass other teams once in a while, instead of just being embarrassed themselves.

Week 15: Lost at Carolina Panthers, 19-12

Ranked – 32

The Cardinals actually recorded an Offensive Fumble Recovery for a Touchdown when Arizona wide receiver Steve Breaston recovered a fumble in the end zone after running back Tim Hightower fumbled at the 5 yard line. Unfortunately, it came during a game Arizona lost to the hapless Carolina Panthers. All the good karma from the Offensive Fumble Recovery Touchdown is wasted after they only managed to score 12 total points against a Panthers team that typically gives up twice that much.

Week 16: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 27-26

Ranked – 31

The Cards have serious issues on offense they will need to address during the offseason, starting at the quarterback position. On the bright side, the defense looks somewhat solid.

Week 17: Lost at San Francisco 49ers, 38-7

Final Rank - 31

Tomorrow, the 2010 Cleveland Browns...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC West, Part I

Arizona Cardinals



I was very sad to hear last spring that Kurt Warner had in fact decided to retire. Never has there been a player so gracious in defeat, so humble in victory and so thankful for the opportunities he was given. He made the most of his second chances in the NFL and when concussions dimmed the prospects of his continued success, a trip to the desert for one last opportunity proved he still had what it took to play. Few quarterbacks have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. Fewer quarterbacks still have ever been so down and out – literally out of the league bagging groceries for a living – as Kurt Warner and managed to come back into prominence. Even in retirement, he has played no media games, as other superstar quarterbacks are wont to do. He said he would retire and he did. What a novel idea.

Warner’s retirement puts the focus of the Cardinals offense back squarely on Matt Leinert. The starting job is his to lose. Though the Cardinals seem to have faith in his ability to step in and fill the void left by Warner, they still signed Derek Anderson during the offseason to back-up and even challenge Leinert for playing time. The two quarterbacks are familiar with each other, having met while attending high school all-star camps back when they were 17. While in college, Leinert’s USC Trojans squared off against Anderson’s Oregon State Beavers in 2004 and USC came away with a 28-20 victory.

Both quarterbacks were less than perfect in their preseason opener against the Texans. Leinert threw the ball accurately, connecting on 6 of 7 passes for 49 yards, but was sacked multiple times and fumbled a handoff. Anderson managed to throw a TD pass, but also hit Texan defensive backs with two passes and hurt his chances to put more pressure on the coaching staff to move him up to the starting role.

For now, by default, Leinert remains the guy in Arizona. The entire first-team offense struggled against the Texans, so it’s still too early to blame Leinert directly. With the competition in camp heating up as the regular season approaches, he’ll have to distance himself from Anderson if he ever wants to be anything more in the NFL than a footnote in Kurt Warner’s bio.

San Francisco 49ers



A season full of promise, potential and opportunity awaits the boys from the Bay area. Coach Singletary and his assistants, among them Tom Rathman, a longtime 49er fullback, are preaching toughness to their players. Rathman has built successful running games everywhere he has coached and Singletary, anything but a finesse coach, will gladly pound the ball down opposing teams’ throats if he has the chance.

With the sudden retirement of backup running back Glen Coffee the 49ers have brought in aging Philadelphia star Brian Westbrook to add depth to their corps of runners. Though concussions and a string of other injuries have hampered Westbrook’s effectiveness in recent years, he should still be a solid contributor to the 49ers offense.

The 49ers ran away with a 37-17 victory in their preseason opener against the Colts once Peyton Manning took a seat after putting the Colts up 10-0 early on. However, the victory for the 49ers was anything but a solid outing. Alex Smith managed to only get the offense two first downs and completed a miserable 3-of-9 passes. His backup, David Carr, proved to be more accurate, hitting 9-of-11 passes against the Colts’ backups, but was sacked three times and chased around the pocket quite a bit.

The NFC West is ripe for the taking this season. There is no one team that stands out as the de facto division champion as Arizona has in years past. San Francisco, following the retirement of Warner, has nudged ahead of the other teams in the division and should be the champion by the end of the season. Despite their early difficulties against the Colts, the 49ers played physically and forced Indianapolis into numerous mistakes. All good signs for a team that is still very raw and developing.

The 49ers are scheduled to play an interesting combination of games their first four weeks. Three of them will be on the road (at Seattle, at Kansas City and at Atlanta) and one game will be at home against New Orleans. If the 49ers are going to take control of the division this year they need to start the season right with a victory at Seattle followed by a solid game against New Orleans. By week 5 we’ll have a pretty good idea where the 49ers rank in the NFL.

Once the regular season starts, teams won’t be benching their star quarterbacks. If the first quarter against the Colts was any indication, this team is not yet ready to reclaim their place among the elites in the league.


Tomorrow, letters to the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams…