Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 13 (2014)

Happy Thanksgiving! May your team not play like turkeys today!

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions:

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Lions by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.521 - 0.356
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-61
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 7-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.626 - 0.614
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-86
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 8-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.642 - 0.508
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 63-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 7-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 13 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 6 (2014)

At the coast this weekend, so no weekly prediction recap this Monday. All systems favor the 49ers to win in St. Louis tonight, except the Home Team Wins formula. Enjoy! 


Monday Night Game Prediction:

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 8
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers by 3, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.522 - 0.305
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a fantasy score of 64-62
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 3-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3


Week 6 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Season Recap - 2013 San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers



Final Record: 12-4 (2-1)
Finished: 2nd Place in the NFC West
2014 Draft Position: 30th

Preseason Ranking: 5

Week 1: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 34-28
    Ranked - 4
    The 49ers handled the Packers with relative ease, considering how good of a team Green Bay is.

Week 2: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 29-3
    Ranked - 24
    I don't care how good you were last week, you don't get blown up by your #1 division rival on national TV. The 49ers looked about as bad as a team could look in the second half after keeping the game close early.

Week 3: Lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 27-7
    Ranked - 26
    10 points in the last two games? Nobody knows what is going on with the 49ers these days.

Week 4: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 35-11
    Ranked - 18
    The win over the Rams was a good first step towards righting the ship.

Week 5: Defeated the Houston Texans, 34-3
    Ranked - 8
    Looks like the 49ers have moved past their early season woes.

Week 6: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 32-20
    Ranked - 7
    Now the 49ers are playing like they did a year ago, but they always seem to make things a bit more difficult than they need to be.

Week 7: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 31-17
    Ranked - 6
    Four straight wins have the 49ers confident again, but they still haven't quite got the passing game figured out yet this season.

Week 8: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 42-10
    Ranked - 5
    The 49ers have quietly won six straight games…

Week 9: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 6
    Refreshed from a bye week after six straight victories, the 49ers are ready to make their mark in the second half of the season.

Week 10: Lost to the Carolina Panthers, 10-9
    Ranked - 8
    Just when you think everything is starting to go San Francisco's way, the 49ers get schooled at home after a bye week.

Week 11: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 23-20
    Ranked - 9
    The 49ers have fallen into a dogfight for an NFC Wild Card spot.

Week 12: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 27-6
    Ranked - 7
    After a few rough weeks, San Francisco seems to have gotten back on course, but the passing game is still an issue and the biggest reason they will be nothing more than a wild card at best.

Week 13: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 23-13
    Ranked - 7
    Too little, too late for the division, but they control their own destiny when it comes to grabbing one of the NFC's Wild Card spots.

Week 14: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 19-17
    Ranked - 7
    A huge win over the Seahawks has given the 49ers complete control over their own Wild Card destiny.

Week 15: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 33-14
    Ranked - 4
    The 49ers are quietly picking up steam as they march towards the playoffs…

Week 16: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 34-24
    Ranked - 5
    The 49ers are in the playoffs… they can steal a first-round bye if they win and the Seahawks lose. If they win and both Seattle and Carolina lose, the 49ers will become the NFC's top seed in the playoffs.

Week 17: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 23-20
    Ranked - 5
    The quietest of the NFC's 12 win teams, the 49ers have a chance to defend their NFC title from a year ago.

Wild Card Round: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 23-20
    Ranked - 5
    The 49ers played an ugly football game last week in Green Bay, but they overcame the elements and were able to move on. Weather should not be an issue in Carolina, but that Panthers D might be.

Divisional Round: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 23-10
    Ranked - 3
    The 49ers dominated their game against the Panthers last week in Carolina. The Seahawks will be a much harder team to get by on the road.

Championship Round: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 23-17

Final Ranking: 3

Next week, the 2013 season recaps finish up with the Super Bowl XLVIII teams, the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Then each of these teams face off against the reigning Creative Misfortune 'Tournament of Past Champions' Champion, the 1999 St. Louis Rams, to see if either of them can defeat The Greatest Show on Turf...

Season Recap - 2011 San Francisco 49ers

Final Record: 13-3 (1-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC West; Lost in the NFC Championship Game
2012 Draft Position: 30^th

Preseason Ranking: 30

Week 1: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 33-17
    Ranked - 8
    Two late return touchdowns made this game look like a blow-out, but the 49ers were close to blowing a fourth quarter lead against the Seahawks. A win is a win, but until the NFC West teams start defeating powers in the other divisions, these kinds of victories will remain necessary, but hollow.

Week 2: Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 27-24
    Ranked - 12
    The 49ers. The best team in the NFC West. That isn’t saying much. A total collapse against Dallas on Sunday can't do much for their confidence, either, with the latest reports that Romo beat them with broken ribs and a punctured lung.

Week 3: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 13-8
    Ranked - 8
    Note to self: Now you are following in Walsh's footsteps. He beat the Bengals twice, you know. Signed, Jim Harbaugh.

Week 4: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 24-23
    Ranked - 8
    A huge comeback win over the Eagles, combined with the overall ineptness of the other NFC West teams has the 49ers suddenly believing in themselves.

Week 5: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 48-3
    Ranked - 4
    The 49ers completely demolished the upstart Bucs last weekend. San Francisco looks like they are finally coming into their own, although this is a year later than expected.

Week 6: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 25-19
    Ranked - 3     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [At dinner following the explosive ending to the San Francisco-Detroit game]
    Coach Jim Harbaugh: How odd that it should end this way for us after so many stimulating encounters. I almost regret it. Where shall I find a new adversary so close to my own level?
    Coach Jim Schwartz: Try the local sewer.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 2
    The 49ers aren’t there yet, but as the best team in the NFC West they are definitely well on their way.

Week 8: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 20-10
    Ranked - 2
    The 49ers are playing well and would be undefeated but for their early season mental lapse against the Cowboys.

Week 9: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 19-11
    Ranked - 2
    Undefeated on the East Coast, the 49ers are rising above the muck that is the NFC West.

Week 10: Defeated the New York Giants, 27-20
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco will be the first team to clinch a division title. Now they need to focus on gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs, because nobody wants to play at Lambeau in January.

Week 11: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 23-7
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco is playing solid football and, with the division all but wrapped up, securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs should be their goal the remainder of the regular season.

Week 12: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 16-6
    Ranked - 6
    The 49ers looked out-of-sorts last Thursday for the first time all season. In the NFC West, they should be fine, but one-and-done in the playoffs certainly looks like a more realistic possibility now.

Week 13: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 26-0
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco probably won't be able to catch Green Bay for the best overall record in the NFC, but they should keep hold of their bye-week positioning.

Week 14: Lost at the Arizona Cardinals, 21-19
    Ranked - 7
    Two losses in the last three weeks have hurt the 49ers. A trip to Pittsburgh should do little to help them recover their early-season form.

Week 15: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-3
    Ranked - 4
    I'm still not sold on the 49ers being able to defeat either the Saints or the Packers. Realistically, for them to reach the Super Bowl, they will have to beat them both.

Week 16: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 19-17
    Ranked - 3
    A win over the hapless Rams is all the 49ers need to clinch a first-round bye.

Week 17: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 34-27
    Ranked - 3
    The 49ers better pull the game film for the recent Chiefs-Packers game and make note of everything Kansas City did to derail the defending champs. San Francisco will need every one of those tricks if they are to have any chance of knocking off the Saints and the Packers. Chances are they will have to defeat both - or at least one - of those elite teams in order to get to the Super Bowl.

Wild Card Round: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 4
    This weekend we will get to see just how good the 49ers defense really is. If they can hold Brees and Co to less than 24 points, San Francisco will have a chance to advance to their first championship game since the '90s.

Divisional Round: Defeated the New Orleans Saints, 36-32
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco has gone back to the basics of fundamental football and the 49ers sit just one game away from another Super Bowl appearance. If their defense can frustrate the Giants like their offense might be frustrated by the Giants' defense, we could be in for a scintillating 6-3 game.

Championship Round: Lost to the New York Giants, 20-17


Final Ranking: 3


Season recaps close out next week with the Super Bowl XLVI teams, starting with the 2011 AFC Champion New England Patriots...

Season Recap - 2010 San Francisco 49ers

Final Record: 6-10

Finished: 3^rd Place in the NFC West

2011 Draft Position: 7^th

Preseason Ranking:  10 

Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

A season full of promise, potential and opportunity awaits the boys from the Bay area. Coach Singletary and his assistants, among them Tom Rathman, a longtime 49er fullback, are preaching toughness to their players. Rathman has built successful running games everywhere he has coached and Singletary, anything but a finesse coach, will gladly pound the ball down opposing teams’ throats if he has the chance.

With the sudden retirement of backup running back Glen Coffee the 49ers have brought in aging Philadelphia star Brian Westbrook to add depth to their corps of runners. Though concussions and a string of other injuries have hampered Westbrook’s effectiveness in recent years, he should still be a solid contributor to the 49ers offense.

The 49ers ran away with a 37-17 victory in their preseason opener against the Colts once Peyton Manning took a seat after putting the Colts up 10-0 early on. However, the victory for the 49ers was anything but a solid outing. Alex Smith managed to only get the offense two first downs and completed a miserable 3-of-9 passes. His backup, David Carr, proved to be more accurate, hitting 9-of-11 passes against the Colts’ backups, but was sacked three times and chased around the pocket quite a bit.

The NFC West is ripe for the taking this season. There is no one team that stands out as the de facto division champion as Arizona has in years past. San Francisco, following the retirement of Warner, has nudged ahead of the other teams in the division and should be the champion by the end of the season. Despite their early difficulties against the Colts, the 49ers played physically and forced Indianapolis into numerous mistakes. All good signs for a team that is still very raw and developing.

The 49ers are scheduled to play an interesting combination of games their first four weeks. Three of them will be on the road (at Seattle, at Kansas City and at Atlanta) and one game will be at home against New Orleans. If the 49ers are going to take control of the division this year they need to start the season right with a victory at Seattle followed by a solid game against New Orleans. By week 5 we’ll have a pretty good idea where the 49ers rank in the NFL.

Once the regular season starts, teams won’t be benching their star quarterbacks. If the first quarter against the Colts was any indication, this team is not yet ready to reclaim their place among the elites in the league.

Week 1: Lost at Seattle Seahawks, 31-6

Ranked – 27

Ouch.

Week 2: Lost to New Orleans Saints, 25-22

Ranked – 26

Taking New Orleans to the wire last night begs the following question - what the heck happened in Seattle two weeks ago? Good teams don't lose games like that, even on the road. 

Week 3: Lost at Kansas City Chiefs, 31-10

Ranked – 28

Offensive coordinator - GONE! Personally, I'd look at the defense. Yes, the offense hasn't scored much, but the defense has allowed 31, 25 and 31 points in three straight games and the saddest part of those scores is New Orleans only scored 25. Allowing Seattle and Kansas City to both ring up 31 points on the aggressive, Singletary-masterminded defense is just outrageous.

Week 4: Lost at Atlanta Falcons, 16-14

Ranked – 28

Man, the 49ers had that game until they lost it - literally. Losing in the last seconds after a big mistake will devastate this shell-shocked team more than the 30 point losses they've already endured this season.

Week 5: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 27-24

Ranked – 30

Five straight losses to start the season. Who gets fired this week?

Week 6: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 17-9

Ranked – 29

So this is what it feels like to actually win a game. I guess nobody gets fired this week.

Week 7: Lost at Carolina Panthers, 23-20

Ranked – 32

Blow them up. This team is not going anywhere this year, even in the pathetic NFC West

Week 8: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 24-16

Ranked – 28

Way to get off the losing track by beating another terrible team. The victory moves the 49ers up a bit in the rankings, but they are still Forked.

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 28

St. Louis leads the division at 4-4. With 8 games to play, the 49ers, even at 2-6, are by no means out of it and have the only legitimate shot of all the Forked teams to make something of their season.

Week 10: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 23-20

Ranked – 23

With seven games to play, the 49ers can only blame themselves if they can't overtake the Seahawks for the division lead by the end of the season.

Week 11: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 21-0

Ranked – 27

Seriously? The 49ers couldn't even manage a field goal at home against the Buccaneers. That's quite pathetic. Are we looking at in-season coaching change #3? Singletary better start winning soon. His team at least still has a decent shot to win the division.

Week 12: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 27-6

Ranked – 26

At 4-7, the division is right their for the taking. How sad is that?

Week 13: Lost at Green Bay Packers, 34-16

Ranked – 25 (ROCKY WEEK!)

Announcer #1: Do you have any predictions on this game? How do you see this contest going?

            Announcer #2: Well, I feel that strength would have to go to the Seahawks, while experience and the WORLD'S HARDEST HEAD would HAVE to go to Mike Singletary!

Week 14: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 40-21

Ranked – 21

At 5-8, the Niners still have a shot at winning the division title. If they can get past the Chargers on Thursday night, they might actually have a chance.

Week 15: Lost at San Diego Chargers, 34-7

Ranked – 27

At 5-9 this team can still win their division. Part of me wants to see this actually happen. The 49ers will have to get by the Rams this weekend to have a chance.

Week 16: Lost at St. Louis Rams, 25-17

Ranked – 26

Finally the 49ers do something right. Singletary should have been gone weeks ago when San Francisco still had a chance to make the playoffs. Once they were eliminated, why even bother making the in-season change?

Week 17: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 38-7

Final Rank - 23

Tomorrow, the 2010 Tennessee Titans...

Sunday Night Football ~ Prediction Recap and Fantasy Football Result

The Vikings celebrated the return of Brett Favre to the starting lineup by letting the San Francisco 49ers run all over their defense to start the game and then allowed their graying quarterback to be sacked badly on one of his four plays. So much for my perfect preseason prediction record.

San Francisco came into the game ready to prove last year's Favre heroics to defeat them were a fluke. The 49ers looked much better in their second preseason game. Though they defeated Indianapolis quite easily their first time out, they did so despite sloppy play from their quarterbacks. Against the Vikings, San Francisco took a step forward in their quest to become NFC West division champions.

Minnesota, on the other hand, looked disinterested, even bored. Perhaps the Favre drama has taken far more out of them than they would like to admit? Now, more than ever, other defenses will be gunning to put Favre down. New Orleans showed last year the Vikings are susceptible to the blitz and San Francisco reminded the league last night that picking up the blitz is not Minnesota's specialty. Although four plays is not nearly enough of a sample size to project how the season will play out with Favre behind center again, Vikings fans have to be a bit concerned by the aggressive way the 49ers harassed their wizened superstar. In a copy-cat league you can bet other teams will be eager to test both Favre's durability and mobility once the regular season gets underway.

On Friday, I predicted the Minnesota Vikings would come away with a 24-20 preseason victory over the 49ers, but San Francisco had different ideas and broke up my perfect prediction streak by upending the Vikings with a very unorthodox football score, 15-10.

The Creative Misfotune Fantasy Matchup proved to be a bit more entertaining. San Francisco played without the benefit of a starting quarterback. Coach Singletary decided to keep back-up quarterback David Carr on the bench, which could have had a serious impact on the Fantasy Matchup result had Minnesota's Sage Rosenfels actually completed more than two of the handful of passes he attempted.

Sunday Night Football - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Result

Minnesota Vikings	pts				pts	San Francisco 49ers
Sage Rosenfels	0		QB		0	David Carr
Toby Gerhart	2		RB1		11	Anthony Dixon
Darius Reynaud	0		RB2		1	Michael Robinson
Logan Payne	0		WR1		0	Jason Hill
Marko Mitchell	0		WR2		0	Kevin Jurovich
Greg Lewis	0		WR3		3	Dominique Ziegler
Garrett Mills	1		TE		2	Nate Byham
Ryan Longwell	3		K		0	Shane Andrus
Minnesota Vikings	5		DEF		10	San Francisco 49ers
Total	11		>>>		27	Total

Despite not playing their second-string quarterback and deciding to use their primary kicker for field goals and extra points the entire game, San Francisco managed to come away with a solid 27-11 fantasy victory, showing their fantasy depth to be nearly three times better than the Vikings.


Tomorrow, letters to the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings...

Sunday Night Football ~ Prediction and Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups

For some Friday fun, let's celebrate Brett Favre's return to football by challenging the Vikings to win their Creative Misfortune Sunday Night Football Fantasy matchup (preaseason style) against the San Francisco 49ers.

As with the example Hall of Fame Game fantasy matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals, the starting rosters for this Sunday's game will be chosen based on the players most likely to see some decent playing time. Next week, Creative Misfortune predictions and fantasy matchup lineups will be set for all games to be played, to give you a taste of what to expect throughout the regular season. Since most NFL teams give their starters significant playing time in the third preseason game, at least the first half and into the third quarter, the predictions will not be for who will win the game outright, but for who will have the halftime lead.

Sunday Night Football - Preseason Week 2 - Game Prediction:

	Minnesota Vikings		24
	San Francisco 49ers		20

Sunday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups*
*Note: Again for this week’s sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the players likely to play at least one quarter or more will be chosen to compete.

Minnesota Vikings	pts				pts	San Francisco 49ers
Sage Rosenfels	0		QB		0	David Carr
Toby Gerhart	0		RB1		0	Anthony Dixon
Darius Reynaud	0		RB2		0	Michael Robinson
Logan Payne	0		WR1		0	Jason Hill
Marko Mitchell	0		WR2		0	Kevin Jurovich
Greg Lewis	0		WR3		0	Dominique Ziegler
Garrett Mills	0		TE		0	Nate Byham
Ryan Longwell	0		K		0	Shane Andrus
Minnesota Vikings	0		DEF		0	San Francisco 49ers
Total	0		^^^		0	Total

Next week, the Letters of Misfortune make their final rounds with visits to the NFC's North and South divisions. Plus, the Sunday Night Football game recap and the final score of this week's Creative Misfortune fantasy matchup...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC West, Part I

Arizona Cardinals



I was very sad to hear last spring that Kurt Warner had in fact decided to retire. Never has there been a player so gracious in defeat, so humble in victory and so thankful for the opportunities he was given. He made the most of his second chances in the NFL and when concussions dimmed the prospects of his continued success, a trip to the desert for one last opportunity proved he still had what it took to play. Few quarterbacks have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. Fewer quarterbacks still have ever been so down and out – literally out of the league bagging groceries for a living – as Kurt Warner and managed to come back into prominence. Even in retirement, he has played no media games, as other superstar quarterbacks are wont to do. He said he would retire and he did. What a novel idea.

Warner’s retirement puts the focus of the Cardinals offense back squarely on Matt Leinert. The starting job is his to lose. Though the Cardinals seem to have faith in his ability to step in and fill the void left by Warner, they still signed Derek Anderson during the offseason to back-up and even challenge Leinert for playing time. The two quarterbacks are familiar with each other, having met while attending high school all-star camps back when they were 17. While in college, Leinert’s USC Trojans squared off against Anderson’s Oregon State Beavers in 2004 and USC came away with a 28-20 victory.

Both quarterbacks were less than perfect in their preseason opener against the Texans. Leinert threw the ball accurately, connecting on 6 of 7 passes for 49 yards, but was sacked multiple times and fumbled a handoff. Anderson managed to throw a TD pass, but also hit Texan defensive backs with two passes and hurt his chances to put more pressure on the coaching staff to move him up to the starting role.

For now, by default, Leinert remains the guy in Arizona. The entire first-team offense struggled against the Texans, so it’s still too early to blame Leinert directly. With the competition in camp heating up as the regular season approaches, he’ll have to distance himself from Anderson if he ever wants to be anything more in the NFL than a footnote in Kurt Warner’s bio.

San Francisco 49ers



A season full of promise, potential and opportunity awaits the boys from the Bay area. Coach Singletary and his assistants, among them Tom Rathman, a longtime 49er fullback, are preaching toughness to their players. Rathman has built successful running games everywhere he has coached and Singletary, anything but a finesse coach, will gladly pound the ball down opposing teams’ throats if he has the chance.

With the sudden retirement of backup running back Glen Coffee the 49ers have brought in aging Philadelphia star Brian Westbrook to add depth to their corps of runners. Though concussions and a string of other injuries have hampered Westbrook’s effectiveness in recent years, he should still be a solid contributor to the 49ers offense.

The 49ers ran away with a 37-17 victory in their preseason opener against the Colts once Peyton Manning took a seat after putting the Colts up 10-0 early on. However, the victory for the 49ers was anything but a solid outing. Alex Smith managed to only get the offense two first downs and completed a miserable 3-of-9 passes. His backup, David Carr, proved to be more accurate, hitting 9-of-11 passes against the Colts’ backups, but was sacked three times and chased around the pocket quite a bit.

The NFC West is ripe for the taking this season. There is no one team that stands out as the de facto division champion as Arizona has in years past. San Francisco, following the retirement of Warner, has nudged ahead of the other teams in the division and should be the champion by the end of the season. Despite their early difficulties against the Colts, the 49ers played physically and forced Indianapolis into numerous mistakes. All good signs for a team that is still very raw and developing.

The 49ers are scheduled to play an interesting combination of games their first four weeks. Three of them will be on the road (at Seattle, at Kansas City and at Atlanta) and one game will be at home against New Orleans. If the 49ers are going to take control of the division this year they need to start the season right with a victory at Seattle followed by a solid game against New Orleans. By week 5 we’ll have a pretty good idea where the 49ers rank in the NFL.

Once the regular season starts, teams won’t be benching their star quarterbacks. If the first quarter against the Colts was any indication, this team is not yet ready to reclaim their place among the elites in the league.


Tomorrow, letters to the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams…