Letters of Misfortune - NFC South, Part II

New Orleans Saints



Defending Super Bowl Champions. The Aints no more. On their championship run, Drew Brees and the Saints out-dueled three Hall of Fame quality quarterbacks – Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning – to forever secure their place in NFL history.

New Orleans will try and become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since New England took home the prize for both Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX. The task could prove to be a monumental challenge for the plucky Saints. Teams have only repeated as Super Bowl champions seven times in the 44-year history of the game: Green Bay - I & II, Miami – VII & VIII, Pittsburgh – IX & X, Pittsburgh – XIII & XIV, San Francisco – XXIII & XXIV, Dallas – XXVII & XXVIII, Denver – XXXII & XXXIII and New England – XXXVIII & XXXIX.

Given the above list of repeat champions – Green Bay, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and New England – all are storied franchises and none have experienced the futility New Orleans has experienced in its history. Even teams that have yet to win a Super Bowl have richer winning traditions than New Orleans.

It will not be easy for the Saints to join the elite list of repeat champions. New Orleans faces stiff competition from within the division. Atlanta will challenge them for the title and Carolina could steal a game or two from them as a motivated division rival. Outside their division, they face tough games against Dallas and Minnesota, but should find easier sledding against the AFC North and NFC West teams they match up with in 2010. New Orleans has no reason to lose any of those 8 games, with their most difficult test coming at Baltimore in week 15.

The offense will continue its high-flying, aerial attack in 2010 and the defense will do its part to keep opposing offenses from matching them score for score. Last season the Saints benefited from turnovers and fortunate bounces that went their way, but the defense's ability to swarm the ball should give them more of the same this year.

Only Atlanta stands in the way of a division title for them and only Dallas, Minnesota and Green Bay are strong enough to challenge them for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The schedule sets up nicely for New Orleans to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Now they have to go out and prove 2009 was no fluke and bury the taint of the Aints once and for all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers



2009 couldn’t have gone much worse for the Bucs. Had it been 1989, nobody would have thought twice about their continued ineptness, but just a handful of years removed from the dominate defenses of Tony Dungy and the Super Bowl championship under the lead of Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay’s fall from grace is surprising. A team chock full of youth and talent, with little veteran support in key roles, Tampa Bay doesn’t look to end their tailspin of futility anytime soon.

Inexperience and youth lead the team at the quarterback position. No quarterback on the roster has more than three years of experience and all of them combined have only started 13 games in the NFL. Growing pains will be the expected norm for the offense. Not only is experience lacking at quarterback, but the receiving corps is also a hotbed of raw, inexperienced talent. The running game, keyed by Cadillac Williams, shows some signs of life, but will not be much of a factor as Tampa Bay will spend most of the season trying to come back from large deficits.

Realistically, nobody expects any kind of breakout year for Tampa Bay. They might improve on their three wins from a year ago, but six wins seems to be the upper limit of what this team can accomplish unless their opponents completely fall apart and make the mental mistakes the Buccaneers of yesteryear were famous for making. Tampa Bay is playing this year to determine what additional steps will need to be made during the offseason to end their tailspin in 2011.


Check back later today for the first of the Creative Misfortune Preseason Week 3 Halftime Score Predictions featuring St. Louis, New England, Indianapolis and Green Bay...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC South, Part I

Atlanta Falcons



The strongest of the teams in the NFC South not playing in New Orleans, Atlanta has a real shot to shake off Matt Ryan’s sophomore slump and challenge for the division title in 2010. The Atlanta franchise had never managed to string together two consecutive winning seasons until 2008 (11-5) and 2009 (9-7). There is no reason they should not extend their streak to three consecutive winning seasons this year.

Matt Ryan, though he stumbled a bit his second season, is a budding superstar with a firm grasp on the offense. The offensive line has had no turnover from the previous season and should not only protect Ryan but also open holes for Atlanta's two talented running backs, Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. If those two can stay healthy (a problem last year) the running game should be able to close out games. The passing game also boasts talent, with star wide receiver Roddy White challenging secondaries deep and hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez the perfect safety valve for a young quarterback.

Defense remains the biggest question mark for this team. Last season the defense came under fire and didn’t have the players skilled enough to shutdown the more powerful offenses in the league. To address these concerns, Atlanta spent their first two draft picks on defensive talent. First-rounder Sean Weatherspoon is expected to start sooner rather than later and be an impact player at outside linebacker. Third-rounder Corey Peters, a defensive tackle, will add depth to their defensive line rotation. The free-agent addition of Dunta Robinson in the secondary will allow the front seven to call more aggressive schemes and get after opposing offenses, something they were unable to do in 2009.

It will be difficult for any team in the South to dethrone the defending champion New Orleans Saints, but the Falcons are poised to fly into the playoffs as a wild card if they can’t steal the division outright.

Carolina Panthers



The quarterback struggles continue in Carolina. Matt Moore, named the starter after the Panthers released Jake Delhomme during the offseason, has had his share of difficulty during the preseason. His production against the New York Jets last Saturday was downright offensive. For the second straight preseason game Moore failed to lead his team to any points and managed only to complete 6 of the 17 passes he attempted. He has only hit 42% of his passes in two preseason games, been sacked three times and thrown one interception. Not the kind of numbers the coaching staff is looking for from their young starter who finished the 2009 season strong after replacing Delhomme in the lineup. Granted, the Panthers faced two of the league’s stronger defenses so far in their preseason schedule, but even considering that, Moore’s play has not been up to par.

If Moore continues to underperform, the Panthers have little depth behind him to step in and take the reins. Rookie Jimmy Clausen hasn’t performed much better. He’s shown a bit more accuracy than Moore has, completing 17 of 27 passes so far (45%), but he has also been picked off in each game he has seen action. The two quarterbacks have combined to throw three interceptions and no touchdowns. They face a strong Tennessee defense in week 3 of the preseason, so these numbers may not improve.

Hampering the young quarterbacks for Carolina is the lack of depth and skill at wide receiver. Steve Smith should be back in time for the regular season opener, fully recovered from his broken arm, but there is nobody else on this team able to challenge defensive secondaries. The receivers, excluding Smith, on Carolina’s roster have a combined 48 catches in the NFL.

With young quarterbacks, young receivers and a running game trying to reassert itself, Carolina faces an uphill battle in the division in 2010 and will be fighting for the scraps from the tables of Atlanta and New Orleans.


Tomorrow, letters to the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part II

Green Bay Packers



Last season Green Bay got everything they could ever hope for from the 2009 Favre-led Vikings (aside from the two losses to Minnesota). A 6-10 record for Minnesota really wouldn’t have done anything for the Packer faithful. They witnessed instead what they should have been hoping for all along - a heart-breaking, season-ending defeat Minnesota fans optimistically denied would happen again, despite having lost multiple Super Bowls and Championship games in the past, all because Favre decided to switch colors.

Packer fans could have only found truly legitimate satisfaction when Favre finished the Vikings’ season with an interception in the NFC Championship Game in the final minutes as he did against New Orleans. The only better situation would have been for the interception to come in the waning seconds of the Super Bowl, but there’s no need to get greedy.

This year, however, things are different. Favre once again played his diva card with all the “will he or won’t he” talk. Favre deciding to play for Minnesota is no longer the feel good story of the NFL. Teams annoyed by his antics will be gunning for him and Green Bay will be no exception. This year no Packer fan in their right mind would want to see Minnesota in the playoffs.

Green Bay is ready to take back control of the NFC North. They are stacked on offense, powerful on defense and have a chip on their shoulder to prove once and for all that Favre may have been great, but he is no longer the hall of fame quarterback he used to be. The two bitter contests with Minnesota this year will decide the division and the Vikings no longer can be considered favorites in both those games.

The Packers are a team to be reckoned with in 2010. They will remind the Vikings what it takes for a franchise to not only make it to the Super Bowl, but also win the game. They are tired of hearing about Brett Favre. They are tired of hearing the Vikings named as Super Bowl contenders. They are tired of losing the division to a swell of Purple Pride.

This season, the Packers have every reason in the world to rise up and knock Minnesota down. They will only have themselves to blame if they fall short and once again toil in the shadow of the Vikings and the great Brett Favre.

Minnesota Vikings



To paraphrase a quote from Marion in Raiders of the Lost Ark, “I’ve learned to hate the Vikings in the last ten years.”

I won’t bother quoting from the rest of the line, because, frankly, that would be weird, but suffice it to say, my dislike of the Vikings has steadily grown over the decade I have lived here in the frozen north. When I first moved to Minnesota, the Vikings were a surprising team, going 15-1 en route to a colossal, heart-breaking collapse in the NFC Championship game. I felt bad for them. I really did.

As the years went by and the jaded optimism of the typical Vikings fan became more apparent, I started to hope for their team to struggle. When Favre first arrived in town in 2009 and the local media covered his trip to Winter Park (the Vikings training facility in Eden Prairie, Minnesota) like it was the O. J. Simpson van, it almost seemed cute to see a fan base so infatuated with a player. It was quite annoying this year when the same thing happened after Favre played the “I just don’t know” card until the Vikings upped his contract and sent the three musketeers down to Mississippi to get him.

I know I won’t get my wish for the Vikings to finish with a 3-13 record this year (they play the NFC East, so I’d love for them to beat the Giants, Eagles and Redskins). They are too good to be that woeful, but they will struggle this season. Favre is a year older, another year and an injury slower, and has almost no chance of duplicating the magic of last season. Adrian Peterson is the fumbling man at running back and without Chester Taylor to change things up, he will have to take on more of the load than he has in recent years.

The defense is great, but with the continuing suspension saga surrounding the Williams Wall, the Vikings D could find themselves trying to fill a gaping hole at their center. If the 49ers ability to run the ball on Sunday night is any indication of the Vikings run defense starting to fail, this could truly become a team that needs to win shoot-outs in order to be successful.

At least they’ll have a gunslinger at quarterback. They have that going for them.
 
Tomorrow, the Letters of Misfortune visit the NFC South...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part I

Chicago Bears



Playing quarterback in the NFL is hard. Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears has proven even more difficult than for other teams around the league. Few teams have quite the quarterback carousel the Chicago Bears have. When Chicago traded Kyle Orten to the Broncos last year in exchange for Jay Cutler, lots of fans believed Cutler would be the spark at quarterback this team has been sorely missing throughout most of their recent history. Unfortunately for Chicago fans, Cutler proved to be a turnover machine, not quite up to Jake Delhomme standards last year, but he still hit way too many cornerbacks and safeties between the numbers to be effective.

This year, Cutler is still the man in Chicago, but who will be the second-string quarterback is another matter. Back-up quarterback Caleb Heine sprained his shoulder in the preseason game against San Diego and will not be ready to play again until the regular season starts. This left only Cutler and rookie quarterback Dan LeFevour in camp and healthy enough to practice and play.

Chicago approached Todd Collins to help add some experienced depth to the position, but Collins turned down the Bears. Collins wanted a bit of a signing bonus to help keep the Chicago QB carousel spinning, but the Bears only offered a veteran minimum contract. Collins wasn't the first quarterback to turn down the Bears. Retired Trent Green said no to them (and with his consussion history starting behind a struggling offensive line that has to play Minnesota and Green Bay twice would not have been a good decision) as well as Damon Huard.

Unable to find experienced veteran back-ups willing to sign on with them, Chicago signed journeyman quarterback Matt Gutierrez late last week to a one-year deal. Gutierrez has great accuracy. Since signing with New England in 2007, he has not thrown an incomplete pass in the NFL, completing a solid two out of two passes for 18 yards and no touchdowns. The Bears need a quarterback able to hit their receivers consistently instead of opposing players if they ever hope to challenge either the Minnesota Vikings or the Green Bay Packers for the division title.

Until they make the playoffs and are able to go into an offseason without questions surrounding the quarterback position, the carousel will continue to spin in Chicago.

Detroit Lions



When you've only managed to win nine games during the past three seasons, including an NFL record 0-16 run in 2008, it is hard to find something to be positive about. The long-time NFC North cellar dwellers have had little to smile about while the league has celebrated the Minnesota Vikings and their quarterback drama, the Green Bay Packers emergence as an elite team and even the Chicago Bears and their "will they be good or won't they" discussions.

For Detroit, the answer has recently been "they won't" and the Lions have done precious little to deny the arguments against them. 2010 shapes up as another difficult year for the Lions. Not only do they have six division games against strong opponents who love to kick them when they are down, they also have to play four games against the AFC East, another strong division. In those ten games, the Lions will be lucky to win two, despite the improvements to their defense and the increasing maturity of Mathew Stafford at quarterback.

The remaining six games of their schedule don't get any easier as they are matched up against the NFC East. Though not as strong as it has been in recent years, all the teams in the NFC East will give the Lions fits. Detroit rounds out their schedule with games against recent powerhouses St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Finally a bit of a breather for them.

All signs point to another dismal year in Detroit. But, hey, at least their uniforms look nice and they don't have to play outside when another bitter, Michigan winter hits town.


Check back later today for a recap of the Sunday Night Game and the results of the sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC West, Part II

Seattle Seahawks



If you had to sum up the offseason for Seattle in one word, that word would be "change". Almost everything about the Seahawks has changed in some form or another since they finished the 2009 campaign a below-average 5-11 team. Coach Carroll, abandoning the sinking ship of USC before all the allegations hit the fan, represents the biggest change in Seattle. Looking to improve his second time around the NFL, he brings rejuvenated vigor to the coaching staff and hope for the fans.

Since arriving in January, Coach Carroll has implemented well over 100 personnel moves designed to shake-up a roster unable to get above the .500 mark since 2007. New players have arrived through trades, the draft, waiver claims, free agent signings and re-signings. Aside from the player movement, a new offensive coordinator has been added and a more aggressive approach is being installed for the defense. Despite all the changes, the core players for Seattle will remain the same on both sides of the ball.

Seattle looked solid, if not spectacular, as they adjusted to their new coach, his philosophy and each other during their opening preseason victory over Tennessee. They still have three preseason games to get the kinks worked out before San Francisco comes to town to open the regular season. With the NFC West wide open for the taking, a victory against the 49ers will vault Seattle into contender status and make the race in the West a three-team battle. Winnable games against Denver and St. Louis early should have this team heading into their bye week at least 2-2, if not 3-1, if they can surprise either San Francisco or San Diego when they journey to Qwest Field.

A fast start will do wonders for a team that has changed so much during the offseason. If they stumble, doubt will set in faster than Seattle cut Lendale White, and without belief in Carroll’s system, this team has no shot to pull itself out of the doldrums of the past few seasons. They will still be better than St. Louis, but being better than the Rams isn’t saying much.

St. Louis Rams



Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Bradford. It’s all fun and games until the Williams Wall smashes into you. The number one overall pick in the 2010 draft, Sam Bradford, finds himself at the center of St. Louis’ rebuilding efforts. Like all former #1 overall picks, he has the potential to steer the Rams away from the disastrous losses they have experienced over the last few seasons, but even an experienced, proven quarterback would have a hard time getting St. Louis to even four wins in 2010. The Rams once again find themselves in the bottom of the NFC barrel. Even Detroit can claim more potential this season than St. Louis, and they went an NFL record 0-for-16 in 2008 and only managed a pair of wins in 2009.

The Vikings buried the Rams in their opening preseason game. Most of the Vikings starters left after the first handful of plays and still the Rams were outgained in yardage, 414-150. Gaining a total of 150 yards in any game, let alone a preseason game, is a recipe for disaster. Add one lost fumble and six sacks to the paltry offense (no interceptions a plus!) and you can easily understand why St. Louis has only managed a 6-42 record over the last three seasons. By comparison, Detroit, including their 0-16 campaign of 2008, has gone 9-39 during the same three year stretch.

I see little changing for St. Louis this season. At best, if Bradford truly emerges as a superstar and follows in the footsteps of the recent rookie success of Sanchez, Ryan and Flacco, the Rams will manage six wins. At worst, they will be lucky to get three wins. Even the other cellar-dwellers on their schedule – Oakland, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Kansas City (the only one of the four making a trip to the Edward Jones Dome) - will prove to be difficult matchups for this downtrodden franchise.

The Rams are rebuilding. Unfortunately, it will be a long and tumultuous road to recovery.


Tomorrow, another Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football preseason matchup...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC West, Part I

Arizona Cardinals



I was very sad to hear last spring that Kurt Warner had in fact decided to retire. Never has there been a player so gracious in defeat, so humble in victory and so thankful for the opportunities he was given. He made the most of his second chances in the NFL and when concussions dimmed the prospects of his continued success, a trip to the desert for one last opportunity proved he still had what it took to play. Few quarterbacks have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. Fewer quarterbacks still have ever been so down and out – literally out of the league bagging groceries for a living – as Kurt Warner and managed to come back into prominence. Even in retirement, he has played no media games, as other superstar quarterbacks are wont to do. He said he would retire and he did. What a novel idea.

Warner’s retirement puts the focus of the Cardinals offense back squarely on Matt Leinert. The starting job is his to lose. Though the Cardinals seem to have faith in his ability to step in and fill the void left by Warner, they still signed Derek Anderson during the offseason to back-up and even challenge Leinert for playing time. The two quarterbacks are familiar with each other, having met while attending high school all-star camps back when they were 17. While in college, Leinert’s USC Trojans squared off against Anderson’s Oregon State Beavers in 2004 and USC came away with a 28-20 victory.

Both quarterbacks were less than perfect in their preseason opener against the Texans. Leinert threw the ball accurately, connecting on 6 of 7 passes for 49 yards, but was sacked multiple times and fumbled a handoff. Anderson managed to throw a TD pass, but also hit Texan defensive backs with two passes and hurt his chances to put more pressure on the coaching staff to move him up to the starting role.

For now, by default, Leinert remains the guy in Arizona. The entire first-team offense struggled against the Texans, so it’s still too early to blame Leinert directly. With the competition in camp heating up as the regular season approaches, he’ll have to distance himself from Anderson if he ever wants to be anything more in the NFL than a footnote in Kurt Warner’s bio.

San Francisco 49ers



A season full of promise, potential and opportunity awaits the boys from the Bay area. Coach Singletary and his assistants, among them Tom Rathman, a longtime 49er fullback, are preaching toughness to their players. Rathman has built successful running games everywhere he has coached and Singletary, anything but a finesse coach, will gladly pound the ball down opposing teams’ throats if he has the chance.

With the sudden retirement of backup running back Glen Coffee the 49ers have brought in aging Philadelphia star Brian Westbrook to add depth to their corps of runners. Though concussions and a string of other injuries have hampered Westbrook’s effectiveness in recent years, he should still be a solid contributor to the 49ers offense.

The 49ers ran away with a 37-17 victory in their preseason opener against the Colts once Peyton Manning took a seat after putting the Colts up 10-0 early on. However, the victory for the 49ers was anything but a solid outing. Alex Smith managed to only get the offense two first downs and completed a miserable 3-of-9 passes. His backup, David Carr, proved to be more accurate, hitting 9-of-11 passes against the Colts’ backups, but was sacked three times and chased around the pocket quite a bit.

The NFC West is ripe for the taking this season. There is no one team that stands out as the de facto division champion as Arizona has in years past. San Francisco, following the retirement of Warner, has nudged ahead of the other teams in the division and should be the champion by the end of the season. Despite their early difficulties against the Colts, the 49ers played physically and forced Indianapolis into numerous mistakes. All good signs for a team that is still very raw and developing.

The 49ers are scheduled to play an interesting combination of games their first four weeks. Three of them will be on the road (at Seattle, at Kansas City and at Atlanta) and one game will be at home against New Orleans. If the 49ers are going to take control of the division this year they need to start the season right with a victory at Seattle followed by a solid game against New Orleans. By week 5 we’ll have a pretty good idea where the 49ers rank in the NFL.

Once the regular season starts, teams won’t be benching their star quarterbacks. If the first quarter against the Colts was any indication, this team is not yet ready to reclaim their place among the elites in the league.


Tomorrow, letters to the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part II

Philadelphia Eagles



Ah, Philadelphia. The city of brotherly love and home to a football team I despise more than almost every other team in the NFL. My ideal season would end with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing with a 2-14 record. Despite my dislike of this team, I have a healthy respect for them. For years, the games between Philadelphia and Dallas have been physical, hard-fought clashes that have determined sovereignty in the NFC East. Even when there is no division title on the line, the rivalry between them makes any victory worth celebrating. If Dallas finishes 3-13, at least one of their victories better be against the Eagles.

The Eagles have been impressive over the past decade – pretty much the Atlanta Braves of the NFL. Almost always in the playoffs, constantly in the championship mix, but never quite able to take that final step and win the championship or find consistent success in the postseason.

Following an offseason of change, I expect Philadelphia to falter this year. You can’t trade away a perennial all-pro quarterback, still quite able to be successful on the gridiron, and not stumble a little bit in the adjustment. Philadelphia deserves praise on the trade of McNabb to the Redskins. They showed they had the courage to do what Green Bay was afraid to do – trade a superstar quarterback to a division rival. Now you have two games this season to prove your decision was worthwhile.

The quarterbacks left after the McNabb trade are quite capable of steering the Eagles to a winning season, if they stay true to their abilities and make the most of the offensive talent already in place. Kolb has proven he can play in the NFL. He now needs to prove he can play at a high level for 16+ games a season. Vick, in the final year of his two-year contract, is out to vindicate the Eagle’s decision to bring him on board and needs to be successful this year in order to have a shot in the league next year. He needs to remember how to make the spectacular plays without making costly errors in the effort. And rookie Mike Kafka, well, he’s just lucky to be here and should embrace his opportunity to learn without any pressure.

This season, all eyes will be on Kolb and on his former counterpart, now playing in Washington. The Eagles are a better team than the Redskins. If Philadelphia finishes behind them in the standings, all fingers will point to management’s decision to cut ties with their star quarterback and hand the keys of the franchise over to a capable, if not yet proven, player.

Washington Redskins



The Redskins. Old friends of the Dallas Cowboys. If my ideal season ends with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing 2-14, guess where they get those two victories? That’s right, over The Hogs or, more recently, The Piglets. As for Washington, well, you’d go 0-16 if I had my way.

Talk about a franchise in near total disarray. You trade with one of your bitter division rivals for their superstar quarterback during the offseason, hire a new coach with a proven Super Bowl track record (at least when Elway was on the field), and the most news about your team during training camp is that one of your disgruntled, underachieving defensive lineman can’t pass a conditioning test. And this was the story of the NFL until a little known quarterback in Mississippi allegedly sent a text message neither confirming nor denying his decision that he may or may not not think about returning to play another season.

For years you have been the doormats of the NFC East and I have loved it. I see little changing this year. Yes, you have a new quarterback, but how much does McNabb have in the tank when the running game in Washington has struggled with injuries of late and the receiving corps is half what he was used to in Philadelphia. Yes, you have a new coach with Super Bowl championships on his resume, but you’ve had that before over the last decade and how’d those seasons turn out for you?

As long as your owner continues to take such a pro-active role, you will continue to struggle. Jerry Jones has created his share of problems in Dallas over the years, but at least the team he has built is talented enough to overcome his meddling. Dan Snyder is a few years and a leisure suit away from becoming the Al Davis of the east coast. And that, my friends, would be a downward slide truly worth celebrating.


Tomorrow, letters to the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part I

Dallas Cowboys



Pressure? What are you talking about? There is no pressure on my favorite team to perform at a high level this season. That's crazy talk!

Before we continue this Letter of Misfortune, let me be perfectly clear. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are my favorite team, but not for the reasons you may think. I am not a fan of theirs because of the five Super Bowls they have won (though that doesn’t hurt my loyalty one bit). I cheer for them because of the two Super Bowls they lost in the 70’s to the Pittsburgh Steelers. My dad was a huge Steelers fan when I was growing up and when I learned Dallas was a big rival of Pittsburgh, I became a Cowboys fan just to annoy him. Since then, I have followed the ‘Boys through thick (three Super Bowl championships in the early 90’s) and thin (their dreadful 1-15 season Aikman’s rookie year, but hey, at least they beat Washington).

But I assure you I am not a “homer” fan for the Cowboys. They can do wrong, sometimes as much, if not more, than they do right. I laughed last year when Brandon Marshall weaved through half the Cowboys team on his way to a long touchdown. I found it hysterical when Sensabaugh had absolutely no idea Sydney Rice caught that pass in the divisional playoffs. Like a true fan, I watch them whether they are winning 35-7 or getting crushed by some fool singing “Pants on the Ground”, 34-3. You have no idea how much I hate that video. This season, you will see me predict Dallas lose games, depending on their matchups. As with every other team that takes to the field on Sundays, I will both celebrate Dallas’ victories and make fun of their mistakes, because Creative Misfortune is a double-edged sword that tolerates no Homers. I love the Simpsons. But enough about me. On with the post…

Pressure? All their monkeys are off their back, right? Dallas won the division last year by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. They won their first playoff game in over a decade by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. Romo has become a star player. The three-headed running game is among the best in the league. The receiving corps is stacked, even with the near-dead weight of Roy Williams. The offensive line is solid. The defense is strong enough to stonewall the run, skilled enough to defend the pass and mean enough to knock opposing players out. Their kicking game might be a little shaky as they try and convert a kickoff specialist into a true field goal kicker, but this just means more opportunities for Romo and his offense to convert Fourth-and-shorts in opposition territory.

Picked as a favorite to win the Super Bowl by a large number of experts, they better win this year, if no other year. Jerry Jones managed to get Super Bowl XLV to be played in Dallas. Never before has the NFL so aggregiously flirted with home-field advantage in their championship game. Let's just say there was a reason the Super Bowl was played in New Orleans all those years during the Ain't's heyday. Yes, he will make money, regardless of who plays the game, but can you imagine how upset he'll be if the Cowboys are not playing in that game? I mean, all those years he has spent on the sideline learning to be a general manager and a coach would be completely wasted.

Can you imagine somebody other than Dallas playing on behalf of the NFC? Or worse, can you imagine Dallas winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, only to lose the NFC Championship game and not go to the Super Bowl? So can I.

And that’s what scares me.

HOW ‘BOUT DEM COWBOYS!

New York Giants



Didn’t you guys, like, just two years ago, ruin the perfect season of the Patriots? What’s happened since then? Tell me, what?

You became the Super Bowl champions in 2007 by defeating one of the greatest teams in NFL history and have been in a tailspin ever since. In 2008, your record actually improved over your Super Bowl season, but you let the Eagles come to your house and embarrass you in the Divsional playoffs. One-and-done is never good, especially when you have the bye week to prepare and home field advantage. And against the Eagles, no less!

Last season the spiral continued and you fell to an 8-8 record. Not good enough to be good, not bad enough to get better, just kind of blah. Where’s the pride, New York? Where’s the sense of power? You’re not even the best team in New Jersey anymore. You're still better than the Knicks, though, so you have that going for you.

While the younger Manning has matured and is becoming a true NFL quarterback, the rest of your team has aged anything but gracefully. The power running game, a staple of Giants teams of the past, became virtually non-existent in 2009. Injuries and poor play kept you from having a 1,000 yard rusher last year. In 2008 you had two! The last time you failed to get a running back over the 1,000 yard plateau was in 2001, when neither Ron Dayne nor Tiki Barber cracked the 900 yard mark.

As a Cowboys fan, I am all for your struggles, but come on. When you combine the mess in Washington with the quarterback situation in Philadelphia and your own difficulties, the NFC East can no longer be viewed as the powerhouse division in the league.

Stand up, mend your broken bones, and run people over like you’ve done in the past – that was beautiful! But don’t lay down like you did last season… unless Dallas is on the opposite sideline.


Tomorrow, letters to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC South, Part II

Jacksonville Jaguars



If you are the defending Super Bowl champions, like New Orleans, having NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell stop by for a preseason visit is cause for celebration. If you are the Jacksonville Jaguars, however, a team coming off two consecutive losing seasons and one struggling to connect in a meaningful way with their fan base, the commissioner may as well arrive at camp wearing a black robe and toting a scythe.

With talks of relocating an NFL team to Los Angeles, or even London, Jacksonville needs to get their fans interested quickly. The Jaguars had to black-out almost all of their home games last season. Never a good sign, especially in a warm-weather city like Jacksonville where extreme cold and snow are never an issue. Of course, where fans are dedicated to the team, like Green Bay, Chicago and Buffalo, such weather extremes are embraced. This extreme passion demonstrated by fans from other cities makes Jacksonville’s inability to sell-out games even less acceptable.

Commissioner Goodell challenged the Jaguar’s organization and the local community during his visit “to demonstrate their passion for this team and their passion for football.” Not a good sign with so much relocation talk going around. In Minnesota, LA has been bandied around as a possible option if a new stadium deal is not reached soon in the legislature. But unlike in Jacksonville, there is a dedicated fan base in Minnesota and a franchise with an established, if not necessarily distinguished, history. No such history exists in Jacksonville and a new stadium is not part of the equation.

I personally have no desire to see an NFL team in Los Angeles, unless the Raiders move back there, but I wouldn’t wish that on any city.

Jacksonville, the Commissioner has served notice to you. You can try all the tricks in the world to increase fan interest in your games, but there is only one sure-fire cure for their apathy – win early, win big, win often.

Tennessee Titans



The Titans managed to end the 2009 season on a high note despite being destroyed by New England 59-0 and suffering the embarrassment of their long-time coach Jeff Fisher wearing a Peyton Manning jersey at a charity event and joking that he "just wanted to feel like a winner".

Though some chastised Jeff Fisher for his “disrespect” of the Titans, I think his decision triggered a renewed sense of purpose for his beleaguered franchise. At the time of the jersey incident, Tennessee had yet to win a game. They entered their bye week a marvelous 0-6 and had been outscored by the likes of Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New England 127-26 in their previous three games. Collins, one of the surprising heroes of the 2008 season, lost his game completely and needed to be benched. The defense was in total disarray, having not allowed less than 24 points since the opening week against Pittsburgh. Chris Johnson remained the only bright spot on a struggling team.

Motivated after their bye week and inspired by the rejuvenated play of Vince Young, Tennessee finished the season on an 8-2 run, with their only losses coming against San Diego and Indianapolis. As much as Jeff Fisher was ridiculed last year for wearing Manning’s jersey, the ploy ended up being a brilliant move on his part.

The upcoming 2010 season will provide a new set of challenges for the Titans. Division victories will be hard to come by this season. Indianapolis is always strong, Houston is on the rise and Jacksonville is desperate to right their sinking ship. If the Titans struggle early again this year, I doubt any magic, motivational bullets will help them pull out of their tailspin, so Coach Fisher better have the team ready to play as soon as the season starts.


Tomorrow, a preview of the Creative Misfortune feature “This Day in Football History”...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC South, Part I

Houston Texans



When I first opened my brand-new copy of “Madden 2003” back in, funny enough, 2003, I knew the Texans were the team for me. Why not choose to play my favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys, instead? Because the Texans were the newest expansion team in the league, and played the 2002 season like they were an expansion team, going 4-12. In the 2003 Madden game, the Texans, unlike the Dallas Cowboys or any other team, had no history, no losses – only potential. Seizing upon that potential, they became my franchise. David Carr became my franchise quarterback and the NFL became my virtual playground.

Now, seven years later, let’s just say the virtual Texans on my XBOX have far exceeded the abilities of the real Houston franchise. Although the Texans have yet to make the playoffs in real life, my virtual Texans are multiple Super Bowl champions. David Carr is a Hall of Fame quarterback and will not be backing up anybody on a different team anytime soon. Unfortunately, like with all sports video games, the reality of the real franchise can’t compare to the virtual success of my pixelated franchise. But there is hope. There is potential. There are playmakers on the real Houston Texans team this year.

I have never known a team to be named “the sleeper to make the playoffs" for as many years as the Texans have been picked only for them never to make the playoffs. That changes this year. With Schaub on a tear, the defense improving and Andre Johnson’s new contract, the Texans will make the playoffs as a wild-card, finishing second in the AFC South behind Indianapolis. Their running game missed a step in 2009 and will need to re-establish its form in order for Houston to truly make the playoffs, but if there ever was a team due to break through, this is the team.

They are practicing hard, over-practicing in some cases (though it hardly seems possible), and have a fairly easy schedule. Only Indianapolis (I was so happy when Manning retired in my virtual world), Dallas, San Diego and the New York Jets loom as threats for them. Even if they lose those five games (which they won’t), they still have a decent shot to finish 11-5 and finally have the break-out season everybody keeps predicting for them.

When they open the season at home against Indianapolis, Houston can take their first step to achieving their as-of-yet untapped potential.

Indianapolis Colts



You really disappointed me last year, Indianapolis. A solid 14-0 going into your week 16 game against the New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! and leading at halftime, 9-3, you benched Peyton Manning and other key starters, effectively ending your chance at a perfect 19-0 season. I just have two questions for you.

Why?

What reason could you possibly have for not striving for history?

You say you were playing for the Super Bowl victory, not a perfect season. 44 other teams have won the Super Bowl. Of those 44 teams, only one has done so undefeated and they only went 17-0. 19-0 would have been a greater achievement. Heck, 18-1 would have been far nobler of an end to your season, because then you would have failed trying in dramatic fashion.

Bold failure can be forgiven. By losing the Super Bowl to New Orleans after giving up on a perfect season, you will never be forgiven. If you had won the Super Bowl with a 17-2 overall record, so what? You would still have been questioned for your decision to lay down and not go for history.

Nothing can be done about all that now. You have one hope to forget about the nightmare end to what could have been a magical season. You have to win the Super Bowl – and just once won’t cut it, unless you do so by being perfect. You have to win two or three more Super Bowls and finish with at least as many as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

Anything less and you will forever be remembered for “what could have been in 2009.”

You must strive for greatness this year. Don’t settle for just being good enough. Last year you were good enough to win the division, good enough to make the playoffs as a #1 seed, good enough to go to the Super Bowl… but what did good enough get you?

Your road to redemption begins on September 12th at Reliant Stadium. Don't let your fans down again. Play to be perfect.


Tomorrow, letters to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC North, Part II

From time to time throughout the NFL season, The Art of Creative Misfortune will feature guest posts by my good friend, Scottie V, a raving mad Steelers fan (made only more insufferable by their six Super Bowl championships). When he first heard of the Letters of Misfortune going out to each team, he insisted on writing the letters to the AFC North. Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland fans, I ask your forgiveness ahead of time.

Now, V's Way Out There, Left-Coast Style Letters of Misfortune to the AFC North, Part II...

Cincinnati Bengals



Do you wonder if Carson Palmer ever just wakes up and thinks, “Why does my general manager hate me so much??” I’ve got a feeling Carson had one of those moments a few weeks ago when he found out that the much-traveled and habitual quarterback bus-thrower-underer Terrell Owens had signed with the Bengals. Yikes! On a team that loves its reality show-fodder athletes, I’m thinking Mr. Palmer could start his own show in the dangerous work genre: “The Deadliest Catch” and “Ice Road Truckers” would have nothing on Carson’s new show, “Cincinnati Bengals Quarterback”.

T.O. on his own is a handful, but the Bengals already have Chad Ochocinco. Double yikes!! As an Oregon State fan and alum, I still have fond memories of Chad (I still have a hard time with “Ochocinco”… he’ll always be “Johnson” to me) tearing up the Pac-10 and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. But, let’s be honest, to say that he is erratic is putting it nicely. I have visions of a whiteboard on the sidelines simply dedicated to tallying how many times each of these receivers has been thrown to. Or worse yet, since these two fellas claim to be buddies, what if they team up and pour their collective discontent on the noble Carson? On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals also brought in hardened criminal and occasional football player Adam “Pacman” Jones in the off-season to strengthen their rap sheet - I mean, roster sheet. As a middle-of-the-road team in the AFC, it could get ugly in Cincy.

But enough about football drama, let’s talk about the reality shows. Amazingly, Chad and T.O. each have their own shows. Simply awesome. To borrow a quote from Jerry Seinfeld, “I’m pretty sure that reality is the last thing these guys are qualified to give us a show about.” I must admit that I have never seen T.O.’s “T.O. Show”. I don’t think I would be a better person for having watched it. I have seen approximately 15 broken-up minutes-worth (how could anyone watch for 15 consecutive minutes??) of Chad’s “Ultimate Catch” show. The experience left me feeling very unclean and pretty certain the only thing Mr. Ochocinco may ultimately catch is a raging case of syphilis. If Chad can’t find love, what hope is there for the rest of us??

Prediction: If ever there was a roster fit for a “Wildcard” spot, it is this team. But 3rd place in the AFC North ain’t going to get it done. On the bright side, guys can get an early start on the next season of their shows.

Bonus prediction: Neither T.O. nor Chad will be Bengals in the 2011 season. The character pendulum will swing drastically from “crazy” to “Tebow”.

Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow (You hear that, Google!?)

Pittsburgh Steelers



Hope springs eternal in Latrobe, PA. Despite an offseason of turmoil and bad pub, this too the Steelers will survive. It seems that every year I’m shocked and saddened to see some of their better players leave in pursuit of a bigger payday. I love (but perhaps the players don’t) how the Steelers’ organization sticks to its principles and seldom overpays its players. They accomplish more with a lower payroll than probably any other team in the league. Kind of reminds me of my favorite college team (except replace “payroll” with “stars”… don’t want to get anyone in trouble). “Hip, Hip, Hooray” for frugality!

Now, about that offseason of turmoil and bad pub. Ben Roethlisberger has undoubtedly soiled his reputation with these latest incidents. It is somewhat unclear exactly what happened with these ladies. We know for sure that, at best, Big Ben is Bigtime Careless. At worst, Big Ben is a Big Creepy Criminal. The truth is probably somewhere in between. On the football side of things, Ben and the Steelers have a suspension to worry about. On the human side of things (which I care a little more about), I hope the suspension is long enough to get Ben’s attention and have him re-think his life a bit. That being said, I really hope that about two weeks is long enough to do the trick!

Now, for a very illogical and bold prediction: Big Ben’s suspension will actually help the Steelers in the long run – hopefully this season, but if not, down the line. For too long, the Steelers have played down to their competition and I blame Ben for this – not directly, but indirectly. I think Ben’s penchant for leading the team to a dramatic comeback has subconsciously caused players to let their guard down, thinking that the offense can get it done at any given moment. Often they do, but sometimes the magic just isn’t there. I witnessed this first-hand last season when the Steelers played the Chiefs in Kansas City. Ugh. The biggest test of the first six games of the season will be when the Ravens come to town in Week 4. Big Ben will likely still be out of action, but fortunately the Steelers will have a raucous home field advantage. I like our chances.

If the Curtain can survive the first six weeks (five games, three of which at home) without Ben, it should benefit them for the rest of the season. Hopefully, that time can be spent establishing the ground game which has been atrocious at times the last couple seasons. I like what I see from Rashard Mendenhall, but he hasn’t been as much of a focus of the offense since they have a playmaker such as Big Ben at quarterback. The suspension will force the Steelers to look elsewhere for offense… and they will find it in Rashard. Defensively, the Steelers should be solid as usual. Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith are back in action (both missed most of last season) which will make the unit that much better.

By Steeler standards, the roster stayed relatively unscathed in the offseason. Losing Santonio Holmes will likely turn out to be an addition by subtraction scenario. The Willie Parker departure initially tugs at my heartstrings, but he’s been on the decline for a few years now. Deshea Townshend has been solid lately, but the Steelers seem to always find good corners to plug into their system… Perhaps Keenan Lewis will be next in line to step up? The addition and return of Antwaan Randle El adds some intangible flair to both the offense and special teams. Love cheering for that guy.

And let’s not forget the greatness of Steelers past whose shadows these modern day heroes are playing under. First the great - [EDITOR'S NOTE: Valway has gone where no fan should go, so, in the interest of brevity, I’m stepping in and fast-forwarding through his Letter a bit… Let’s see… two pages about the Steelers of the 70s… three pages cut extolling the virtues of Terry Bradshaw's intelligent commentary... fast forward... 6 Super Bowls, yadda, yadda, yadda... moving on to page 7... decal on only one side of the helmet, funny historical lesson, but no... page 10... in depth discussion of how the Steelers beat the Cowboys in two Super Bowls just to annoy me, absolutely not... fast forwarding to Super Bowl XXX, the only piece of Steeler history worth talking about... another two Super Bowl championships… yes, we understand you’ve won a few…oh, good, he’s finally wrapping things up…]

My Prediction, through Black-and-Gold Colored Lenses: In spite of Ben’s absence for the first few games of the season, the Steelers galvanize as an offensive unit and establish Rashard Mendenhall early, with him averaging over 100 yards per game. Big Ben returns in week 6 to lead this now fully operational offensive powerhouse. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North, sweeping both contests against their bitter rival, the Ravens. The world rejoices.


Tomorrow, letters to the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC North, Part I

From time to time throughout the NFL season, The Art of Creative Misfortune will feature guest posts by my good friend, Scottie V, a raving mad Steelers fan (made only more insufferable by their six Super Bowl championships). When he first heard of the Letters of Misfortune going out to each team, he insisted on writing the letters to the AFC North. Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland fans, I ask your forgiveness ahead of time.

Now, V's Way Out There, Left-Coast Style Letters of Misfortune to the AFC North, Part I...

Baltimore Ravens



Let me be as transparent as possible here: I don’t like the Baltimore Ravens… Nay, I can’t stand the Baltimore Ravens. (For the record, I also don’t like using the word “transparent”, but I guess it applies here). As a lifelong Steeler fan, the Ravens are the Biff to my McFly, the Nellie Olsen to my Laura Ingalls, the Screech to my Lisa Turtle. And they are jerks. Oh, and Ray Lewis is crazy. I know it, you know it, and the media knows it. They are just afraid that he might kill them if they say anything about it.

All right, now that I’ve got that out of the way, I can get on to the business of meaningless prognostication. The last couple years, the Ravens front office has quietly (or maybe I just haven’t been paying attention?) been building a pretty solid football team that might be geared for another run at a title. You’ve brought in talent (Boldin and Stallworth) at the wide receiver position to provide some additional targets for Joe Flacco and picking up Ken Hamlin should bolster the secondary. The former additions should make this the season that determines whether mighty Joe Flacco is the real deal or if he’s just another Joey-come-lately quarterback being built up into something he is not. If nothing else, the name “Joe Flacco” should give him an opportunity to crack the infomercial or mobster line of work, if quarterbacking does not pan out.

In my eyes, the best addition the Ravens have recently made is hiring John Harbaugh as coach. I say this because Brian Billick was a tool and because John Harbaugh is a Harbaugh. Much of my aforementioned disdain for the Ravens is because of Billick. He exudes smarm in a way that only Pau Gasol has been able to top. Congrats to Pau. Not only that, but with John Harbaugh, you get two Harbaughs for the price of one when his “Captain Comeback” brother, Jim Harbaugh, ends his collegiate football season come December, just in time for a potential playoff run. And what, my friends, is better than one Harbaugh on the sidelines?

Now, down to the nitty gritty of making a prediction. I am quite analytical and am able to separate emotion when it comes to this kind of stuff. I have a gift. This is easy:

1) The Ravens are not the Steelers

2) The previously noted additions in the offseason will not be enough to offset the horribly misguided addition of a former Oregon Duck (Ed Dickson), while subtracting a former Oregon State Beaver (Dwan Edwards). That was the proverbial “kiss of death.”

Therefore, the Ravens will finish 2nd in the AFC North.

  

 

Cleveland Browns
 
 
 
Seriously, stop crying… He’s gone… He’s not coming back.

In an offseason that has been all Lebron, all the time, it’s been easy to forget there is a football team in Cleveland. And I know many among you have been happy to oblige. No, the Cleveland Browns have not provided much to get excited about the last… well… for about as long as I can remember. It seems like eons ago when Marty Schottenheimer and the gang pounded the ball with Gestapo-like force and the defense blitzkrieged through the league. And they also had the occasional fumble… Sorry, didn’t mean to bring that up.

But, being an optimist, I often believe a miraculous turnaround could be just as simple as finding the right song to play during warmups. The emotional charge resonating from the crowd can impact the players’ outlook greatly. So, with this in mind, I would like to make some recommendations to the Cleveland Browns’ PA announcer.

First some songs to avoid:

• “Cleveland Rocks!” – you’re not fooling anyone
• “Baby Come Back” – yeah, not happening
• “Don’t Know What You’ve Got ‘Til It’s Gone” – appropriate in so many ways, but kind of a downer… and I’m not talking about Lebron or your beloved Brady Quinn. I’m talking about Derek Anderson. Wow, that was dumb booing him out of town.
• “Brown-Eyed Girl” – yes, you are the Browns and this is a classic, but what does it have to do with football?
• “Quinn the Eskimo” – Brady Quinn, the guy you ran Derek out of town for, is no longer with the team either… Oh, and he is not “the mighty Quinn” either… Not appropriate.

Some songs to play to get the crowd inspired and cheer the team on to victory:

“ … “

Ummm… Yeah, I can’t think of any… Sorry.

Prediction: The good news is there will only be 3 teams better than the Browns in the AFC North. The bad news is the AFC North only has 4 teams.

Check back later today for a recap of the Hall of Fame Game and the results of the sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football game between the Dallas Cowboy back-ups and the Cincinnati Bengals back-ups...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC West, Part II

Oakland Raiders




FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

Disappointed? You should be if you’re an Oakland Raiders fan. Besides cheering for a team that has been the laughingstock of the league since their last Super Bowl appearance following the 2002 season, the first full-contact day of training camp went by without a single fight between players. The horror.

How can a team with Oakland’s history manage a fight-free practice?

Don’t worry. Coach Cable, known to throw an occasional punch on his own (or at least flip people out of their chairs), has assured the local media that fights will happen once players “get a little hotter, a little more tired, a little more ornery."

For those of you unwilling to take Coach Cable at his word and let the fisticuffs happen naturally, you can take this list of “Most Likely Scufflers” with you to the open practice sessions and incite the players of your choice to carry out their preferred method of UFC-style violence on the practice field.

While you sit back and wait for the much-anticipated fights to take place, don’t forget there has been some good news during the offseason. JaMarcus Russell is no longer with the team. Jason Campbell will be an improvement at quarterback, based on work ethic alone. Five-time Pro Bowl player Richard Seymour re-signed early, despite being tagged as a franchise player, and even reported with the rookies to training camp. The addition of John Henderson and the rookies Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston should help Oakland improve their woeful run defense from a year ago.

But who cares about all that football garbage? It’s hot out. We’re tired and cranky. Get on with it.

FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!

San Diego Chargers



The cream of the crop in the AFC West, the schedule sets up nicely for San Diego to once again compete for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. With six games against weaker division opponents and four against the mediocre NFC West, San Diego just needs to hold serve against their less-talented opponents and stand strong against the three elite AFC teams they have to face (Cincinnati, New England and Indianapolis) in order to repeat as division champions.

Tomlinson is gone, but since he’s lost a step the last few seasons, his departure will not adversely affect the running game. Rivers has returned with one more year of experience under his belt and will continue to be among the upper echelon of quarterbacks. Antonio Gates signed a record deal for a tight end and the receiving corps should be more than up to the task of helping return the Chargers to their “Air Coryell” days of yesteryear.

The Chargers look primed to win their fifth consecutive division title due to a weaker schedule and the return of almost all offensive starters, minus Tomlinson, from last season. Even the holdout of Shawne Merriman and some early defensive injuries should not put a damper on the Chargers. In their first nine games of the season, only New England stands out as solid competition and the Patriots have to travel to San Diego.

If San Diego goes into their week 10 bye with anything less than a 7-2 record, they will truly have faltered in their quest for a deep run into the playoffs.


Tomorrow, Hall of Fame Game Prediction...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC West, Part I

Denver Broncos



The Mile High City is enthralled with their latest first-round draft pick, Tim Tebow. Never heard of him? Where have you been all offseason? Even the NFL.com Denver Broncos profile page is enamored with the emerging superstar. Just check out the headlines from last week –

• Elway back in fold with Broncos, will attend training camp. Ready to pass Hall of Fame mantle on to Tebow…
• Harris OK, ready to lead Tebow on rollouts…
• Broncos reward Dumervil with $61.5M contract, but Tebow not yet signed…
• No Tebow in Denver…
• Tebow lands five-year Broncos deal, set to practice Friday…
• Tebow ready for hard hits, ribbing by Broncos teammates…
• Broncos lock up Thomas, rookie wide receiver ready to help make Tebow great…
• Broncos' Moreno, Buckhalter injured, but coach says not to worry. Injuries mean more passing opportunities for Tebow…
• Tebow draws fans…
• Tebow’s first pass incomplete, scientists blame unexpected planet shift…
• What do quarterbacks Orton and Quinn have in common? Neither named Tebow…

Notice a pattern? Since Denver has gone all-Tebow, all the time, so will this letter. Heck, so new to the game, The Art of Creative Misfortune could use the extra traffic from search engines by having Tim Tebow listed in its pages. But why just stop at a few references to the great quarterback of the future? Let’s dedicate an entire paragraph to the rising star!

Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow Tim Tebow

Ok, that’s enough. Tebow. ENOUGH!

Aside from the media hype surrounding the new quarterback in town (who, I might add, still has not thrown a single interception in NFL regular season play), Denver comes off a season filled with disappointment and head cases. After starting 2009 an impressive 6-0 (without Tebow, no less!), they stumbled mightily to only finish 8-8 (9-7 minimum would have been the result had Tebow been on the roster). Dumping Brandon Marshall’s antics will help, but the defense will have to get better if Denver will have any chance to keep pace with San Diego.

In a two team race for the division, Denver has the advantage over San Diego. Why? Yep, you guessed it.

Tebow!

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are going wildcat! In desperate need of a new identity they have decided to steal one for themselves- but only if they can make it work. There are few things better than 4-12 teams struggling at the bottom of their division who try to reinvent themselves by running with the latest craze.

Where’s the originality? Where’s the pride? In a copy-cat league, variations of the wildcat offense have spread from sideline to sideline. But which team used the wildcat last year to win the Super Bowl or even go deep into the playoffs? Of all the playoff teams, only Dallas, with their three-headed running back monster, used the formation with any kind of success and even they only used it as a change-up for a few plays a game.

Miami, the originator of the offense, used it quite extensively last year to finish an underwhelming 7-9 last season with far better players than Kansas City has. Who do you have to run the wildcat effectively, KC? The rookie McCluster? The emerging Charles? The veteran Thomas Jones?

Even Coach Haley is already downplaying the effectiveness of the formation by saying, “I think it all comes down to the players you have and that’s really kind of the process we’re in and you check out who can do what and if it’s something we want to do, we’ll expand on it. If we don’t, we’ll still have an advantage of letting our defense see something else.”

I agree with him. It is good for your defense to get as much practice as possible. With an offense going nowhere anytime soon, the defense will be on the field far too long to be effective.

And the wildcat? If no team uses it to great effectiveness this season to propel them deep into the playoffs, the offensive scheme should be put out of its misery like the run-and-shoot craze of the early 90’s.


Tomorrow, letters to the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC East, Part II

New York Jets



One of the biggest surprise teams in last year's NFL and the beneficiary of the most gift-wrapped entrance ever into the playoffs, the New York Jets are under a lot of pressure now to repeat their performance from a year ago. Despite their tear through the final games of the season, a lot of questions still linger in New Jersey.

Will quarterback Mark Sanchez continue his brilliant, if sometimes erratic, rookie play or succumb to the dreaded sophomore slump? Will the defense, stellar last season behind the ball-hawking abilities of cornerback Darrelle Revis, be able to play at such a high level once again? Will Revis' holdout impact the defense's cohesiveness once September rolls around?

Not only are their questions surrounding last season, but the addition of older veterans, chief among them Ladainian Tomlinson and Laveranues Coles, also add some interesting possibilities for the high-flying Jets.

At least we can be certain of one thing. Rex Ryan will entertain us, whether or not the Jets are able to continue their success from last year. He's trimmed down during the offseason and signed a two-year extension to coach the team. Brimming with confidence, his fiery attitude should be enough to keep the Jets in position to challenge for the division.

By the time the bye week rolls around in week seven, we will know if the Jets were for real last season or the beneficiaries of better teams laying down and giving them a free pass when they shouldn't have.

Miami Dolphins



Wildcat! What happened to the magic last year? In 2008 all anybody could talk about was the emergence of the wildcat offense unveiled to devastating effect against the New England Patriots the third week of the season. Spurred on by the new offense, Miami stole victories with their energetic, deceptive style of play. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gave the wildcat offense a devastating 1-2 punch that left the rest of the league in its wake. After surprising the rest of the AFC East and stealing the division, the wildcat run came to a sudden, tragic end against Baltimore during the wild card game.

With such great success in 2008, 2009 should have been your year. But you faltered. Injuries hurt you badly. Defenses figured out how to slow the wildcat and your own defense broke down and allowed offenses to run all over them.

To succeed against the likes of New England and New York in 2010 you will have to reassert your dominance in the running game, with or without the wildcat antics. The maturation of Chad Henne and the addition of Brandon Marshall will only help improve your average passing game. But all the offensive firepower will not matter if the defense continues to work like a sieve and allow opposing teams to move up and down the field at will.

With three of your first four games against the likes of New England, Minnesota and the New York Jets, you will have to hit the ground snarling like a rabid wildcat. Anything less and you’ll be swimming in circles the rest of the season, trying to catch up to the rest of the division.



Tomorrow, letters to the AFC West...

Letters of Misfortune – AFC East, Part I

Buffalo Bills



Finally the Bills show some emotion and open training camp with a chip on their shoulder. Granted, having an underachieving defensive lineman take a cheap shot at your overachieving starting running back may not be the best way to bring emotion back to your game, but any emotion after the Dick Jauron years has to be appreciated.

Not since the opening of the 2003 season, when Buffalo, then led by Drew Bledsoe, pasted the New England Patriots 31-0, has Buffalo been a team to get excited about. Since that game you have managed only a 46-65 record. Not terrible. Not great. Merely a lukewarm, average, why-should-we-care record. In a division where you are clearly the doormats, you better scrap together every bit of motivation and emotion you have, because you will need every ounce of it to achieve anything more than a 6-10 record this season.

New England is on the prowl, Miami is suddenly relevant, even if they faltered last year, and the New York Jets proved they won’t shy away from anybody. In a stacked division with three legitimate playoff contenders, you have to play with emotion. You need to kick, scratch and claw for every yard you can get this season. And when it’s fourth down around your opponent’s 40 yard line, don’t punt! Don’t quiver and give the ball away. Stand up, fight for that first down and go for it!

Bold failures are easily forgiven. No team ever became great playing afraid to lose. Not only have you played afraid to lose, but you have also played to contain the margin of defeat. A loss is a loss, whether it’s by one point or fifty.

You may fall short and fail once again this year, but you can certainly fail better than you have in the past. With the quarterback position unsettled, the running game and defense will have to step up in order for you to regain the dominance you once had in the 90’s.

Since you open the season with three division games and one game at Lambeau, you have an immediate chance to send a clear message to the rest of the league. But what message will you send?

Will you emerge from those opening games brilliant and bold or 0-for-4 and buffaloed?

New England Patriots



Team of the past decade. The Evil Empire. Everything that is both right and wrong with Boston sports. A coach referred to as a genius. A quarterback ranked among the beautiful. A franchise, once downtrodden, now a failing dynasty.

Most teams around the league would love to have the pedigree of the New England Patriots. No single team challenged your status as the elite franchise of the past ten years. Indianapolis came closest, but ruined their opportunity last season to surpass you when they lost to New Orleans and gave away a chance to accomplish what you could not – finish the season as undefeated Super Bowl champions.

Though you have stumbled of late and injuries have taken their toll on some of your best players, you are still classified among the elites in the AFC, if not the NFL. No franchise has ever been the Team of the Decade twice during the modern era. Green Bay did little in the 70’s, Pittsburgh faltered in the 80’s, San Francisco fell off the map in the 90’s and Dallas stumbled through the last decade.

To start your journey towards unparalleled greatness, you will have to run a gauntlet of fire and emerge unscathed. Twelve of your games are played against playoff teams from last season or division opponents. Only the games against Cleveland and Detroit could be chalked up as outright wins this early in the preseason schedule.

If you weather the storms early and are able to stay healthy late, once again come playoff time fans around the league will be cursing your name and cringing at your cold-blooded efficiency.


Tomorrow, letters to the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins...