Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2014)

The NFL playoffs are finally here. Let's get wild, everybody!

Wild Card Game Predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 7. Panthers by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.442
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.599
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.535
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.576
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next Thursday for Creative Misfortune's post-Wild Card round power rankings.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 13 (2014)

Happy Thanksgiving! May your team not play like turkeys today!

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions:

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Lions by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.521 - 0.356
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-61
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 7-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.626 - 0.614
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-86
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 8-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.642 - 0.508
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 63-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 7-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 13 slate...

Season Recap - 2013 Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions



Final Record: 7-9
Finished: 3rd Place in the NFC North
2014 Draft Position: 10th

Preseason Ranking: 27

Week 1: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 34-24
    Ranked - 11
    Detroit survived Adrian Peterson… now how will they fare against the rest of the league?

Week 2: Lost at the Arizona Cardinals, 25-21
    Ranked - 15
    All the offensive weapons in the world and the Lions still manage to lose games they shouldn't.

Week 3: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 27-20
    Ranked - 11
    Nothing like winning for the first time in Washington since… forever.

Week 4: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 40-32
    Ranked - 8
    The Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North.

Week 5: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 22-9
    Ranked - 9
    No Megatron, big problems. The Lions were crushed by the Packers in Wisconsin… well, if you can call a barrage of field goals getting crushed. Detroit has to find a way to win without Calvin Johnson if this is to be their year.

Week 6: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 31-17
    Ranked - 8
    After dropping a couple games recently, Detroit picks up another win to stay even with the Bears atop the NFC North.

Week 7: Lost to the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-24
    Ranked - 11
    Another close loss drops the Lions a half-game behind the Packers and they have already lost to Green Bay once this season.

Week 8: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 31-30
    Ranked - 10
    Megatron! 329 yards receiving! Need I say more?

Week 9: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 10
    After Monday Night, the Lions have suddenly become the team to beat in the NFC North.

Week 10: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 21-19
    Ranked - 7
    The Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North and are far healthier than their division foes.

Week 11: Lost at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 37-27
    Ranked - 10
    The Lions had a great chance to move ahead in the division, but let it slip away despite another impressive performance by Megatron.

Week 12: Lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 24-21
    Ranked - 13
    With the division wide open for their taking, the Lions laid an egg at home against the woeful Buccaneers.

Week 13: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 40-10
    Ranked - 10
    As the Packers and Bears fade into the distance, the Lions look to reign supreme in the NFC North.

Week 14: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 34-20
    Ranked - 12
    The snow in Philadelphia really hurt Detroit's high-octane offense.

Week 15: Lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 18-16
    Ranked - 15
    The Lions have had the division in their hands for weeks now, but they've let it slip almost completely through their fingers.

Week 16: Lost to the New York Giants, 23-20
    Ranked - 20
    Out of the playoffs, the Lions take on Minnesota this week in a meaningless NFC North game.

Week 17: Lost at the Minnesota Vikings, 14-13

Final Ranking: 20

Season recaps continue next week with the 2013 Tennessee Titans...

Season Recap - 2011 Detroit Lions

Final Record: 10-6 (0-1)
Finished: 2^nd Place in the NFC North; Lost in Wild Card Round
2012 Draft Position: 23^rd

Preseason Ranking: 22

Week 1: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27-20
    Ranked - 13
    Everybody expected the Lions defense to be strong, but if the offense continues to show flashes of brilliance, Detroit's drought of terrible losing seasons may be at an end.

Week 2: Defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 48-3
    Ranked - 2
    Detroit's defense was solid last season and showed signs of greatness. The offense, too, showed flashes of inspiration last year. It looks like everything is finally coming together for the Lions in 2011. I can’t remember the last time the Lions were undefeated this late in the season. Could this mean their annual Thanksgiving Day game (against Green Bay this year) might actually be something worth watching?

Week 3: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 26-23
    Ranked - 2
    Note to self: Get Megatron two touchdowns against the Cowboys this week to shut Cris Carter up. Signed, Mathew Stafford.

Week 4: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 34-30
    Ranked - 3
    How great would it be if the undefeated Detroit Lions faced off against the undefeated Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day? Even better would be if these two teams met in the final game of the season with a combined 29-1 record to battle for the division title. Stranger things have happened. The league should not be concerned that Detroit has started 4-0 after two impressive comeback victories. The league should be concerned that the Lions suddenly believe they can beat anybody, no matter what.

Week 5: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 24-13
    Ranked - 2
    It's been 55 years since the Lions have been undefeated this deep into the season. Calvin Johnson is nigh unstoppable. If they can get by San Francisco and Atlanta unscathed, there should be nothing stopping them from going into their Thanksgiving Day matchup against Green Bay perfect.

Week 6: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 25-19
    Ranked - 5     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Aaron Rodgers: Surely you don’t think you can escape from this season into the playoffs with a division title?
   Matthew Stafford: That depends on how reasonable we’re all willing to be. All I want is the championship.
   Clay Matthews: And if we refuse?
   Matthew Stafford: Then your Thanksgiving Day game will have no victory prize.

   [Meanwhile, back at Lions heaquarters, Coach Schwartz bickers with the media relations staff]
   Coach Schwartz: I told you not to be premature in your communiqué to the media. Football is not an exact science. It does not deal out undefeated seasons easily.
   Matt Barnhart, Lions Director of Media Relations: The media members are not patient men. They demand constant reports. You led me to believe-
   Coach Schwartz: NOTHING! I made no promises of an undefeated season! I merely said it looked favorable. Besides. With the information in my possession, my lineup calculations should have been correct.

Week 7: Lost to the Atlanta Falcons, 23-16
    Ranked - 7
    Two losses in a row and now an injury to Matthew Stafford. Will he ever be able to complete a full season without getting dinged up?

Week 8: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 45-10
    Ranked - 4
    The roar is back on track! The Thanksgiving date with the Packers will keep people glued to their TVs instead of running for turkey when Detroit plays. Quite a change from the last 50 years.

Week 9: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 4
    The Turkey Day battle with Green Bay looms on the calendar, but the Lions cannot afford to overlook the Bears after what Chicago did in Philadelphia last Monday.

Week 10: Lost at the Chicago Bears, 37-13
    Ranked - 8
    With the undefeated season long gone, Detroit now has to scramble just to keep up in the division.

Week 11: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 49-35
    Ranked - 8
    The Lions have a franchise-defining game against the Packers lined up for Thanksgiving. Win, and all bets are off. Lose, and the Lions fall back into the NFC's Wild Card quagmire.

Week 12: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 27-15
    Ranked - 9
    Really, Suh? You lost your balance? I often drive my foot hard into the ground when trying to regain my balance, too.

Week 13: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 31-17
    Ranked - 8
    The most undisciplined team in the NFL continues to self-destruct.

Week 14: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 34-28
    Ranked - 10
    Stupid penalties again kept the Lions from a blowout win over the Vikings - but the missed face mask call at the end of the game may have saved their undisciplined season.

Week 15: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 28-27
    Ranked - 9
    The Lions are playoff bound if they can get past either San Diego or Green Bay the final two weeks of the season.

Week 16: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 38-10
    Ranked - 8
    Do they travel to New Orleans, New York or Dallas? It all depends on how much of a fight Green Bay decides to give them.

Week 17: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 45-41
    Ranked - 8
    The Lions go from facing Matt Flynn and his 6 TD performance to facing Drew Brees and his record-shattering season. That doesn’t look good for them on paper.

Wild Card Round: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 45-28


Final Ranking: 10


Tomorrow, the 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers...

Season Recap - 2010 Detroit Lions

Final Record: 6-10

Finished: 3^rd Place in the NFC North

2011 Draft Position: 13^th

Preseason Ranking:   30
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

When you've only managed to win nine games during the past three seasons, including an NFL record 0-16 run in 2008, it is hard to find something to be positive about. The long-time NFC North cellar dwellers have had little to smile about while the league has celebrated the Minnesota Vikings and their quarterback drama, the Green Bay Packers emergence as an elite team and even the Chicago Bears and their "will they be good or won't they" discussions.

For Detroit, the answer has recently been "they won't" and the Lions have done precious little to deny the arguments against them. 2010 shapes up as another difficult year for the Lions. Not only do they have six division games against strong opponents who love to kick them when they are down, they also have to play four games against the AFC East, another strong division. In those ten games, the Lions will be lucky to win two, despite the improvements to their defense and the increasing maturity of Mathew Stafford at quarterback.

The remaining six games of their schedule don't get any easier as they are matched up against the NFC East. Though not as strong as it has been in recent years, all the teams in the NFC East will give the Lions fits. Detroit rounds out their schedule with games against recent powerhouses St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Finally a bit of a breather for them.

All signs point to another dismal year in Detroit. But, hey, at least their uniforms look nice and they don't have to play outside when another bitter, Michigan winter hits town.

Week 1: Lost at Chicago Bears, 19-14

Ranked – 31

So close to a promising start to the season, but a "process" call and a shoulder injury short-circuit a season already on life support before any games were played.

Week 2: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 35-32

Ranked – 31

Two weeks, two losses, two almost wins. Don't almost win next week. WIN! I know it's a radical concept for the Lions, but Minnesota is ripe for the taking.

Week 3: Lost at Minnesota Vikings, 24-10

Ranked – 32

Against Chicago and Philadelphia you looked like you were so close to breaking through, but you laid an egg against Minnesota - a division rival you have typically played well against. Your ineptness on Sunday coupled with St. Louis' ability to win a game lands you in the Creative Misfortune cellar.

Week 4: Lost at Green Bay Packers, 28-26

Ranked – 32

Another tough division loss spells certain doom for the 2010 season. With 12 games left to play, Detroit's goal should be to get to the six win mark. At this point, it would have taken less time to rebuild Rome than to rebuild the Lions of the Millen era.

Week 5: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 44-6

Ranked – 27

So this is what it feels like to win a game?

Week 6: Lost at New York Giants, 28-20

Ranked – 28

Too bad you can't play the Rams at home every week.

Week 7: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 29

Out of the bye week they face the surging Redskins.

Week 8: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 37-25

Ranked – 22

Detroit's playing well enough they actually might be worth watching on Thanksgiving for a change. They certainly have more going for them than the Cowboys at this point.

Week 9: Lost to New York Jets, 23-20

Ranked – 24

Despite the injuries and the heartbreaking, overtime loss, Detroit is showing no signs of quitting in 2010, by far their most successful campaign in recent memory. If only Suh could kick as well as he can tackle...

Week 10: Lost at Buffalo Bills, 14-12

Ranked – 31

The Lions will never arrive if they can't beat winless teams on the road.

Week 11: Lost at Dallas Cowboys, 35-19

Ranked – 29

One of these weeks Detroit will put it all together and actually win a game on the road. Even at 2-8 this is a much improved team.

Week 12: Lost to New England Patriots, 45-24

Ranked – 28

Another year, another Turkey Day drubbing. One of these days Detroit won't get crushed at home... or on the road... or when they play another NFL team...

Week 13: Lost to Chicago Bears, 24-20

Ranked – 28 (ROCKY WEEK!)

Well, ya see, Commissioner, we understand you're lookin' for sparrin' partners for the Green Bay Packers and we just want to let you know that we are very available.

Week 14: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 7-3

Ranked – 28

What an unexpected victory over the Green Bay Packers! And now, instead of talking about a 19 game losing streak to division opponents, the Lions can proudly proclaim their 1-19 record over the last 20 games.

Week 15: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-20

Ranked – 23
            Is there any possible streak of futility the Lions can snap this week when they play the Miami Dolphins?

Week 16: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 34-27

Ranked - 21

            The Lions on a three-game winning streak? That hasn't happened in like... ever.

Week 17: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 20-13

Ranked – 22

Next week, season recaps continue with the 2010 St. Louis Rams…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part I

Chicago Bears



Playing quarterback in the NFL is hard. Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears has proven even more difficult than for other teams around the league. Few teams have quite the quarterback carousel the Chicago Bears have. When Chicago traded Kyle Orten to the Broncos last year in exchange for Jay Cutler, lots of fans believed Cutler would be the spark at quarterback this team has been sorely missing throughout most of their recent history. Unfortunately for Chicago fans, Cutler proved to be a turnover machine, not quite up to Jake Delhomme standards last year, but he still hit way too many cornerbacks and safeties between the numbers to be effective.

This year, Cutler is still the man in Chicago, but who will be the second-string quarterback is another matter. Back-up quarterback Caleb Heine sprained his shoulder in the preseason game against San Diego and will not be ready to play again until the regular season starts. This left only Cutler and rookie quarterback Dan LeFevour in camp and healthy enough to practice and play.

Chicago approached Todd Collins to help add some experienced depth to the position, but Collins turned down the Bears. Collins wanted a bit of a signing bonus to help keep the Chicago QB carousel spinning, but the Bears only offered a veteran minimum contract. Collins wasn't the first quarterback to turn down the Bears. Retired Trent Green said no to them (and with his consussion history starting behind a struggling offensive line that has to play Minnesota and Green Bay twice would not have been a good decision) as well as Damon Huard.

Unable to find experienced veteran back-ups willing to sign on with them, Chicago signed journeyman quarterback Matt Gutierrez late last week to a one-year deal. Gutierrez has great accuracy. Since signing with New England in 2007, he has not thrown an incomplete pass in the NFL, completing a solid two out of two passes for 18 yards and no touchdowns. The Bears need a quarterback able to hit their receivers consistently instead of opposing players if they ever hope to challenge either the Minnesota Vikings or the Green Bay Packers for the division title.

Until they make the playoffs and are able to go into an offseason without questions surrounding the quarterback position, the carousel will continue to spin in Chicago.

Detroit Lions



When you've only managed to win nine games during the past three seasons, including an NFL record 0-16 run in 2008, it is hard to find something to be positive about. The long-time NFC North cellar dwellers have had little to smile about while the league has celebrated the Minnesota Vikings and their quarterback drama, the Green Bay Packers emergence as an elite team and even the Chicago Bears and their "will they be good or won't they" discussions.

For Detroit, the answer has recently been "they won't" and the Lions have done precious little to deny the arguments against them. 2010 shapes up as another difficult year for the Lions. Not only do they have six division games against strong opponents who love to kick them when they are down, they also have to play four games against the AFC East, another strong division. In those ten games, the Lions will be lucky to win two, despite the improvements to their defense and the increasing maturity of Mathew Stafford at quarterback.

The remaining six games of their schedule don't get any easier as they are matched up against the NFC East. Though not as strong as it has been in recent years, all the teams in the NFC East will give the Lions fits. Detroit rounds out their schedule with games against recent powerhouses St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Finally a bit of a breather for them.

All signs point to another dismal year in Detroit. But, hey, at least their uniforms look nice and they don't have to play outside when another bitter, Michigan winter hits town.


Check back later today for a recap of the Sunday Night Game and the results of the sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers...