Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Conference Championship Games (2014)

And then there were four...

Championship Game Predictions:

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7. Seahawks by 7, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.744 - 0.685
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Both teams at 13-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 6.5, Over/Under 53.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 3. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.711 - 0.649
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Check back next week for post-championship game power rankings...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Divisional Round (2014)

It's the divisional round of the NFL playoffs! The home teams have a huge advantage, but in recent years, the Wild Card teams have been nothing but upset-minded. If your team is still playing for a shot at the title, how will they fare this weekend?

Divisional Round Saturday Game Predictions:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 2. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.722 - 0.681
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seahawks by 10.5, Over/Under 40
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.739 - 0.462
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Divisional Round Sunday Game Predictions:

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 6. Packers by 6, Over/Under 52.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 1. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.688 - 0.659
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 7. Broncos by 7, Over/Under 53
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 1. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.675 - 0.641
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

Check back next Thursday for Championship game power rankings and predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 14 (2014)

The Falcons have a shot to be in sole possession of first place in the NFC South. They just have to get by a Packers team that is playing lights out football. Hard to think this will be a great game, when all systems favor the Packers by an average score of 10 points, but then again, the Falcons could pull off an upset. That's why they play the games!

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 16
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 13. Packers by 13, Over/Under 56
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.698 - 0.484
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 101-72
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 9-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3


Week 14 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. Divisional round results will be posted on Wednesday. Which teams advanced to the conference championships?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 5 (2014)

The Vikings come into Green Bay emboldened by the play of their rookie quarterback, but the Packers return from Chicago eager to take down Minnesota after their successful Bear hunt. Who wins tonight's matchup? It all depends on how well the Vikings can keep Aaron Rodgers contained.


Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Packers by 8.5, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.547 - 0.475
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 76-68
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Both teams at 2-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 5 slate...

Thursday Night Football - Season Opener (2014) - Prediction and Intro to Prediction Systems

IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!

The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion Seattle Seahawks battle the Green Bay Packers before The Twelfth Man at CenturyLink Field.

Seattle comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. Many experts have picked them to repeat as champions and those that don't have them repeating have them challenging for a spot in the Super Bowl. A young team, with a young superstar at quarterback and one of the nastiest defenses in the league, the Seahawks remain a dominant force to be reckoned with in the NFL.

Green Bay, on the other hand, is a team at a crossroads. They come into the season with high expectations, but a lot of people wonder if the end of the Rodgers-led dynasty has already started. A lack of a running game and injuries have hurt the Packers in the past. Aaron Rodgers is healthy this year, so it may be too early to write them off in 2014, but with Chicago, Detroit, and even Minnesota, playing much better than they have in recent seasons, it will not be easy for the Packers to win the NFC North division title or make it to the playoffs as a wild card.

Now, on with the predictions! For every NFL game this season, I will post predictions based on Creative Misfortune's Points-Per-Yard formulas. Two variations of this formula will be used. One based on overall team performance and another based on how well each team does in their home and away games. But what fun would it be to just pick games based on these formulas in a vacuum without having other prediction systems to compare against?

It is very difficult, traditionally, for any prediction system to hit 70% accuracy or more just picking the winners of NFL games - one of the reasons the NFL is such a popular sport. However, Vegas has a pretty good rate picking winners of games (though never quite hits the 70% mark) just based on who their favorites are and even blindly picking the home team results in a better than average success rate of around 57%. But that approach, again, will never produce success over 70% of the time.

To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems, with the goal of finding a somewhat simple formula that can hit the magical 70% accuracy mark on a consistent basis:

First, the Creative Misfortune formula systems -

Creative Misfortune's Overall Points-Per-Yard Pick – These picks are based on a Points-Per-Yard formula I developed that proved to be quite successful in 2009, but fell short of my expectations in 2010. 2011 and 2013 both had modest results, matching the Vegas success rate. One more season of predictions should help determine how accurate (or not) Creative Misfortune's Points-Per-Yard formula is.

Creative Misfortune's Home & Away Points-Per-Yard Pick – A variation of the Overall Points-Per-Yard formula that debuted last season, the Home & Away Points-Per-Yard formula takes into consideration where the game is being played and how well the two teams involved play "at home" or "on the road". Whereas the Overall PPY formula measures the overall strength of teams, the Home & Away PPY formula will add a second variable - where the game is played - into its calculations to try and increase the accuracy of the Overall PPY formula. This variation of the formula has only been tested once over an entire season, and performed better than the Overall PPY formula, but it's still too early to tell if it is a viable prediction system.

Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5.5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating or matching the spread). The Over/Under value is also included with each Vegas Lines pick to give you an idea of how high (or low) scoring Vegas thinks the game will be.

Pythagorean Theorem Pick – *New prediction formula to Creative Misfortune this season*. It has been theorized that you can predict how well a team will do the following season by calculating the overall points they scored, divided by the total number of points they scored plus the total number of points they allowed. The resulting percentage value can then be translated to a win percentage and be used to see if a team played above or below their potential. This pick system will see how accurate the Pythagorean Theorem formula can be picking games from week to week. According to Football Outsiders, the Pythagorean Theorem is "the principle, made famous by baseball analyst Bill James, that states that the record of a baseball team can be approximated by taking the square of team runs scored and dividing it by the square of team runs scored plus the square of team runs allowed. Statistician Daryl Morey later extended this theorem to other sports including professional football. Teams that win a game or more over what the Pythagorean theorem would project tend to regress the following year; teams that lose a game or more under what the Pythagorean theorem would project tend to win more the following year, particularly if they were 8-8 or better despite underachieving."

Fantasy Projections Pick – *New prediction formula to Creative Misfortune this season*. With all the hype about a player's projected fantasy score and the decisions regarding whether or not to start them or sit them on your fantasy team each week, I wondered how well these fantasy projections could be at predicting actual game outcomes. This pick will use the cumulative total projected fantasy points of all players on a given team to project how well the team will do against their opponent. It will be interesting to see if fantasy projections (all based on the standard ESPN scoring rules) can translate to real game-picking success.


Second, the "blind" control systems -

The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Jacksonville to beat Seattle.

Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have point spreads associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions. Teams picked to win by the Best Record Wins system will be expected to win by 3 points.

Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict based on the NFL's default score of 20-17, i.e. Home Team wins by 3.

Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 6. Seahawks by 6, Over/Under 46
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2013 Pythagorean Rating of 0.825 - 0.481
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 10. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 88-60
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Tomorrow, predictions for the Sunday games slated for Week 1 NFL action...

Season Recap - 2013 Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers



Final Record: 8-7-1 (0-1)
Finished: 1st Place in the NFC North
2014 Draft Position: 21st

Preseason Ranking: 11

Week 1: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 34-28
    Ranked - 21
    The Packers showed some spit and fire, but were still overmatched by the 49ers.

Week 2: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 38-20
    Ranked - 9
    The Packers have the potential to dominate again this season. Interesting to see how they match up with the Bears when these two division rivals collide to determine who wins the NFC North title.

Week 3: Lost at the Cincinnati Bengals, 34-30
    Ranked - 16
    The Packers are quickly falling into must-win territory with the Bears still undefeated and the Lions playing strong.

Week 4: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 22
    The worst part about Green Bay's bye week? The Lions and Bears played each other and now the Packers are two games out of first place in the win column.

Week 5: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 22-9
    Ranked - 17
    Green Bay still has a way to go, but a solid victory over the Lions has them moving in the right direction.

Week 6: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 19-17
    Ranked - 11
    Big wins on the road are always good. The Packers need the wins in the division, though, in order to make it to the playoffs.

Week 7: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 31-13
    Ranked - 9
    With the Bears, Lions and Vikings all stumbling and beat up now, who doesn't see the Packers taking control of the division during the second half of the season?

Week 8: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 44-31
    Ranked - 9
    Despite Detroit's prowess, Green Bay remains the team to beat in the NFC North.

Week 9: Lost to the Chicago Bears, 27-20
    Ranked - 13
    Ouch! The Packers lose Aaron Rodgers and suddenly become a very beatable football team.

Week 10: Lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 27-13
    Ranked - 15
    Injuries have ruined Green Bay's season. Will Aaron Rodgers return before the damage is too much for the Packers to overcome?

Week 11: Lost at the New York Giants, 27-13
    Ranked - 15
    The Packers are proving just how valuable Aaron Rodgers is to their team.

Week 12: Tied the Minnesota Vikings, 26-26
    Ranked - 15
    Because they were so far behind, a tie is as good as a win… but then they had the lead in the final minutes of the game and failed to hold on to it, so the tie is as good as loss, too.

Week 13: Lost at the Detroit Lions, 40-10
    Ranked - 19
    The Packers have all but lost the season. If they lose once more, they might as well shut Aaron Rodgers down completely and bring him back 100% healthy in 2014.

Week 14: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 22-21
    Ranked - 18
    Rodgers is still on the mend, which does not bode well for Green Bay's playoff hopes.

Week 15: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 37-36
    Ranked - 17
    The Packers are doing everything they possibly can to keep the light on until Rodgers is ready to come back and play.

Week 16: Lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 38-31
    Ranked - 17
    The playoff picture for the Packers is very simple - beat the Bears to win the NFC North or lose and go home.

Week 17: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 33-28
    Ranked - 12
    The Packers may be far better than their 8-7-1 record with Aaron Rodgers back at the helm, but they needed a miracle to get by Chicago. San Francisco won't be nearly so easy to handle.

Wild Card Round: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 23-20

Final Ranking: 12

Tomorrow, the 2013 Philadelphia Eagles...

Season Recap - 2011 Green Bay Packers

Final Record: 15-1 (0-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC North; Lost in the Divisional Round
2012 Draft Position: 28^th

Preseason Ranking: 3

Week 1: Defeated the New Orleans Saints, 42-34
    Ranked - 4
    One yard and a 2-point conversion and everybody would have forgotten all about how great the Packers offense was and how their defense blew the opening game against the Saints. If Green Bay can only achieve victory against the upstart Panthers this weekend by a similar slim margin, Green Bay will be hard pressed to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Week 2: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 30-23
    Ranked - 4
    The Packers may still be the best team in the NFL, but two straight near-misses - an excusable one against the Saints, a surprising one against the Panthers - give me enough pause to wonder when they will stumble first. Will it be in Chicago this weekend or in their first game against Detroit down the road?

Week 3: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 27-17
    Ranked - 1
    Note to self: Defense wins championships and we are more than just a flashy offense. Signed, Clay Matthews.

Week 4: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 49-23
    Ranked - 1
    Until they finally lose a game, there is no reason to believe the Packers will fall short of another Super Bowl title.

Week 5: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 25-14
    Ranked - 1
    Until Green Bay loses, will anybody doubt that they are the best team in the NFL? Nothing changes that perception this week win the winless Rams travel to Lambeau.

Week 6: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 24-3
    Ranked - 1     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Aaron Rodgers: You did it, didn't you?
    Ted Thompson, Packers GM: The fans want you to go for it. They want you to get a hold of the championship before the AFC does and they are prepaid to pay handsomely.
    Aaron Rodgers: And the museum at Lambeau? They get the Lombardi trophy when this is all finished?
    Ted Thompson: Oh, yes. You know, I'm really rather envious. 10 years ago I would have gone after the undefeated season myself with Favre.
    Aaron Rodgers: I just have to locate 13 more wins along the way. I think I know where to start. [Pauses] Do you think the Vikings will trip me up?
    Ted Thompson: Possibly. But the Vikings are the least of your worries right now, believe me, Aaron.
    Aaron Rodgers: What do you mean?
    Ted Thompson: Well, I mean that for nearly 40 years teams have been striving for the undefeated season. It’s not something to be taken lightly. No one knows if it’s possible now. It’s like nothing you’ve ever gone after before.
    Aaron Rodgers: [laughing] Oh, Thompson. What are you trying to do, scare me? You sound like my mother. We’ve known each other for a long time. I don’t believe in magic, a lot of superstitious hocus pocus. I’m going after a season of incredible historical significance and you’re talking about the boogie man. Besides, [unwraps a copy of the Packers playbook and throws it into his suitcase on top of his championship belt] you know what a cautious fellow I am.

Week 7: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 33-27
    Ranked - 1
    Nothing like a 20-point third quarter on the road against a division rival to solidify Green Bay as the #1 team in the league.

Week 8: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 1
    Until they lose, the Packers have to be expected to win.

Week 9: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 45-38
    Ranked - 1
    Short yardage downs and a defense willing to bend, but not necessarily break, between the 20s may be the only things that will prevent Green Bay from finishing the season undefeated.

Week 10: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 45-7
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers continue to make it look easy and remain the class of the NFL.

Week 11: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 35-26
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers face their greatest challenge of the season when they travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Week 12: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 27-15
    Ranked - 1
    When the Packers clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they better learn from the Indianapolis Colts and play lights out to be perfect.

Week 13: Defeated the New York Giants, 38-35
    Ranked - 1
    We will know Green Bay is unstoppable if they ever win a game 10-7. Despite being undefeated, are the Packers capable of winning a close, defensive struggle?

Week 14: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 46-16
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers are playing at a level other teams can only dream about.

Week 15: Lost at the Kansas City Chiefs, 19-14
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers can try and spin their loss to the Chiefs any way they want, but the bottom line is they missed out on a chance to make history. If all it takes is a power running game to take them out, Green Bay's next loss very well may kill any Super Bowl dreams they have.

Week 16: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 35-21
    Ranked - 1
    With nothing substantial left to play for, having already clinched a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Packers just have to decide if they would prefer the Lions to go into the playoffs as the #6 seed or the #5 seed.

Week 17: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 45-41
    Ranked - 1
    How scary are the Packers if their backup quarterback can go off against another playoff-caliber team for 480 yards and 6 TDs?

Wild Card Round: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 1
    No team has ever finished the regular season 15-1 and lost their first game at home. It is hard to imagine this Packers team becoming the first in NFL history to do so.

Divisional Round: Lost to the New York Giants, 37-20


Final Ranking: 5


Tomorrow, the 2011 Baltimore Ravens...

Thursday Night Football - Prediction and Intro to Prediction Systems

IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!

The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion Green Bay Packers battle the New Orleans Saints on the unfrozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

Green Bay comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. More than a few experts have picked them to repeat, but others (yours truly included) don't think the Packers can go the distance again. However, there is no reason to believe they won't go deep into the postseason before their title defense falls short. The Packers enter the season healthy, which is more than can be said for the way they entered the playoffs last year. An off-season of turmoil will only help them remain one of the elite teams in the NFL.

New Orleans, just a season removed from their own Super Bowl title, also weathered the lockout better than most teams under the leadership of quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints look like a team ready to prove the end of 2010 – an embarrassing loss to a team with a losing record in the playoffs – was just a fluke. Many experts have the Saints playing in the Super Bowl this year (yours truly included). Since the opening game of the 2011 season pits these two NFL elites against one another, the first 60 minutes of football could have a huge impact on where the NFC championship game is played in late January.

Now, on with the predictions! For every NFL game this season I will do my best to predict the game winner. But what fun would it be to just pick games by myself in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against?

Last season proved to be a bit rough on all prediction systems, with no system hitting the coveted 70% accuracy mark for the entire season. Hopefully, things improve in 2011.

To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems:

First, the human systems -

Creative Misfortune's Pick – My pick of who I think will win and the points they will win the game by. Creative Misfortune’s picks are based on a Points-Per-Yard formula I developed that proved to be quite successful in 2009, but fell short of my expectations in 2010. After using this system to predict a third season in 2011, I should have a pretty good idea about how accurate (or not) the Points-Per-Yard formula is.

Scottie V’s Pick – My friend, Scottie V, chimes in with his predicted winners and the points they will win by. Despite being a math major, don’t expect any logical formulas or complex computer models out of this guy. He picks with his heart, and did quite well in 2010.

Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5.5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating or matching the spread). The Over/Under value is also included with each Vegas Lines pick to give you an idea of how high (or low) scoring Vegas thinks the game will be.


Second, the "blind" control systems -

The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Cincinnati or Carolina to beat Green Bay.

Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have point spreads associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions. Teams picked to win by the Best Record Wins system will be expected to win by 3 points.

Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict based on the NFL's default score of 20-17, i.e. Home Team wins by 3.

Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...

Thursday Night Football Score Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. The Packers kick-off their 2011 title defense with a gritty win over another NFC powerhouse.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4. Aaron Rodgers and co take on one of the NFC's best and handle them at home.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Packers by 4.5, Over/Under 47.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3.


Tomorrow, predictions for the Sunday games slated for Week 1 NFL action...

Tournament of Past Champions ~ Elite 4 Matchup – Battle of the ‘90s

The Legendary Bracket champion 1996 Green Bay Packers are no strangers to big games. The last surviving team from Titletown, USA, the Super Bowl XXXI champion ’96 Packers, led by young Brett Favre, rolled through their bracket matchups, despite entering the tournament seeded 12^th, based on their regular season win percentage.

Their journey started with a solid, if underwhelming, 17-13 victory over the 2000 New York Giants, followed by a second-round win against the 2003 New England Patriots. Another modern era team matched up with them in the third round, but the ’93 Cowboys were no match for the ’96 Packers and fell, 21-17.

When Favre led them onto the field for their Fortunate 16 matchup against the tournament’s top seeded 2007 New England Patriots, it looked like the Pack’s run was at an end, but an MVP performance shocked the world as the Packers not only defeated the Patriots, but completely outclassed them by winning a surprising 16 of 20 simulations en route to a 24-16 victory.

Momentum carried them to victory in a gritty, defensive battle against the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, all that stands between the 1996 Packers and another title game appearance is the upstart, Fabled bracket champions, the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

The Rams opened their tournament with a dominating 21-13 victory over the 1958 Baltimore Colts and really hit their stride in the second round when they absolutely crushed the 2001 New England Patriots, 29-12, in a matchup where they won every possible simulated game and avenged a real-world loss by the 2001 St. Louis Rams in the process.

St. Louis struggled mightily against the ’95 Cowboys in round three and managed to advance despite winning less than half of the simulations, but managed to find their high gear again when they defeated the 1962 Packers in their Fortunate 16 matchup, 21-14.

The Greatest Show on Turf punched their ticket to the Elite 4 with a gutty, one-point victory over the #1 seeded, 1985 Chicago Bears.

Now, on a simulated neutral field, the first of the Elite 4 Tournament of Past Champions matchups gets underway featuring the 12-seeded 1996 Green Bay Packers vs the 11-seeded 1999 St. Louis Rams.

First Quarter:

St. Louis struck first when they took the opening kick-off and steadily drove down the field. Their balanced attack kept the Packers guessing and they came away with an early field goal to go up 3-0. Green Bay countered with a long drive of their own that faltered in the red zone, though they tied it up with a field goal of their own.  

The Rams offense kicked into a higher gear and moved the ball freely down the field. A quick slant TD strike from Kurt Warner to Torry Holt gave the Rams a 7-point lead. The quarter ended when both quarterbacks traded interceptions at midfield.

End of First Quarter: St. Louis 10, Green Bay 3

Second Quarter:

Green Bay took over and Favre marched the Packers down the field only to stall once again outside of field goal range. Warner missed on his next few passes, but Marshall Faulk picked up the slack and helped get the Rams out of the shadow of their end zone. The two teams traded punts at midfield. With little time remaining in the first half, Warner played perfect pass-and-catch with his receivers during the two-minute drill. The Rams tacked on another field goal as the half expired and headed into the locker room with a comfortable, 10-point lead.

           

Halftime: St. Louis 13, Green Bay 3

Third Quarter:

The Packers went three-and-out on their first drive and punted the ball away to open the second half. On the Rams' second play from scrimmage, Warner hit Isaac Bruce streaking down the far sideline for a devastating, quick-strike touchdown. The Packers defense walked off the field shaking their head at the scoreboard. Favre took the offense back onto the field following the ensuing kick-off, grim determination on his face, his team now down by 17 with little over a quarter-and-a-half to play.

The Green Bay offense did not strike quickly, but moved the ball efficiently down the field. After long runs by Dorsey Levens and Edgar Bennett, Favre connected with Antonio Freeman in the back corner of the end zone to give the Packers some life. Both offenses stalled following the Packers touchdown and the quarter ended with St. Louis in control of both the ball and the scoreboard.

End of the Third Quarter: St. Louis 20, Green Bay 10

Fourth Quarter:

St. Louis, content to keep the clock moving, handed the ball off to Marshall Faulk and kept the chains moving with their short, precision passing game. The Green Bay defense could do little to stop them, but finally caught a break when a well-timed blitz sacked Warner on third down in Green Bay territory, forcing the Rams to try a long field goal. The field goal missed wide and Favre rushed the Packers offense back out onto the field. Playing like a gunslinger, Favre quickly led the Pack down the field and pulled them within one score when Dorsey Levens pounded the ball in from the one-yard line.

The Packers, down by three with just over five minutes left to play, kicked away. An untimely three-and-out by St. Louis made the stadium start rocking as Green-and-Gold fans cheered for another great Favre comeback. Green Bay’s offense picked up where it left off and marched right back down the field. With just over a minute remaining, Favre was flushed from the pocket and was hit just as he launched a dangerous pass across the middle toward Antonio Freeman. The pass was intercepted just short of the goal line as Favre was driven into the turf by two Ram linebackers.

The stadium fell silent as Warner made two successive kneel downs inside his own five-yard line to end the game and knock the 1996 Green Bay Packers out of the tournament.

Final Score: St. Louis 20, Green Bay 17

Congratulations to the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

They now wait for their championship opponent – either the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers or the 1977 Dallas Cowboys.

Check back tomorrow to see which of the great ‘70s franchises will take their place alongside the 1999 St. Louis Rams in the Tournament of Past Champions Title Game…

Season Recap - 2010 Green Bay Packers

Final Record: 10-6 (4-0)

Finished: 2^nd Place in the NFC North; Super Bowl XLV Champions

2011 Draft Position: 32^nd

Preseason Ranking:   5
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

Last season Green Bay got everything they could ever hope for from the 2009 Favre-led Vikings (aside from the two losses to Minnesota). A 6-10 record for Minnesota really wouldn’t have done anything for the Packer faithful. They witnessed instead what they should have been hoping for all along - a heart-breaking, season-ending defeat Minnesota fans optimistically denied would happen again, despite having lost multiple Super Bowls and Championship games in the past, all because Favre decided to switch colors.

Packer fans could have only found truly legitimate satisfaction when Favre finished the Vikings’ season with an interception in the NFC Championship Game in the final minutes as he did against New Orleans. The only better situation would have been for the interception to come in the waning seconds of the Super Bowl, but there’s no need to get greedy.

This year, however, things are different. Favre once again played his diva card with all the “will he or won’t he” talk. Favre deciding to play for Minnesota is no longer the feel good story of the NFL. Teams annoyed by his antics will be gunning for him and Green Bay will be no exception. This year no Packer fan in their right mind would want to see Minnesota in the playoffs.

Green Bay is ready to take back control of the NFC North. They are stacked on offense, powerful on defense and have a chip on their shoulder to prove once and for all that Favre may have been great, but he is no longer the Hall of Fame quarterback he used to be. The two bitter contests with Minnesota this year will decide the division and the Vikings no longer can be considered favorites in both those games.

The Packers are a team to be reckoned with in 2010. They will remind the Vikings what it takes for a franchise to not only make it to the Super Bowl, but also win the game. They are tired of hearing about Brett Favre. They are tired of hearing the Vikings named as Super Bowl contenders. They are tired of losing the division to a swell of Purple Pride.

This season, the Packers have every reason in the world to rise up and knock Minnesota down. They will only have themselves to blame if they fall short and once again toil in the shadow of the Vikings and the great Brett Favre.

Week 1: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 27-20

Ranked – 1

Grant now out for the season, the rest of the offense better step up and keep firing on all cylinders, otherwise the Pack will be one and done as Misfortune's #1 team.

Week 2: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 34-7

Ranked – 1

Dominating teams beat the good teams and crush the weak teams, especially at home. You crushed a weak team on Sunday, as you should have. A win on the road at Chicago next Monday adds fuel to the Packers Super Bowl fire.

Week 3: Lost at Chicago Bears, 20-17

Ranked – 4

A tough loss on Monday Night made worse by far too many mistakes and careless play. Maybe the Bears are actually good this year, but in the long run the Packers will be better. No team can stay ranked #1 after making too many inexcusable errors under primetime lights.

Week 4: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 28-26

Ranked – 2

Barely escaping Detroit is better than losing to Detroit. The game at Washington this week will confirm whether the Packers are solid contenders or just passing pretenders.

Week 5: Lost at Washington Redskins, 16-13

Ranked – 15

The injuries continue to mount for this strong preseason favorite.

Week 6: Lost to Miami Dolphins, 23-20

Ranked – 13

A tough overtime loss at home sends this preseason Super Bowl favorite falling to a .500 record. Injuries continue to take their toll.

Week 7: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 28-24

Ranked – 13

The Packers were sooo close to blowing another game at home. If two feet touched down, Favre would have broken Green Bay's heart all over again.

Week 8: Defeated the New York Jets, 9-0

Ranked – 8

Shutting out the Jets on the road, the Packers now become the team to beat in the NFC, though injuries still hang like a dark cloud over the rest of their season.

Week 9: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 45-7

Ranked – 6

Nothing helps you feel healthy like crushing a team that has quit on their season in front of the home crowd.

Week 10: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 4

The Vikings are close to imploding and the Packers have had one extra week to prepare for their big game in the Minneapolis. If Green Bay loses, they don't deserve to be division champions.

Week 11: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 31-3

Ranked – 4

Two straight games, two blow-out victories and two fired coaches. That trend ends this week when the Pack travel to Atlanta.

Week 12: Lost at Atlanta Falcons, 20-17

Ranked – 8

Ain't no shame losing to the best team in the NFC on the road.

Week 13: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 34-16

Ranked – 7 (ROCKY WEEK!)

            Packer Fans: Hey, Aaron. 

            Aaron Rodgers: Hey. 

            Packer Fans: Can we come up? 

            Aaron Rodgers: Yeah, sure. 

            Packer Fans: Some weather we're having here huh? 

            Aaron Rodgers: Yeah, it's pretty rough. 

            Packer Fans: But it's perfect for what you gotta do. It's good. Toughen you up. 

            Aaron Rodgers: I guess.

            Packer Fans: I know you think you're gonna have to do everything by yourself, but you know we'll be with you. 

            Aaron Rodgers: Yeah.

            Packer Fans: Favre was like a son to us. We raised him. And when he donned the Purple, a part of us died. But now you're the one. You're the one that's gonna keep our spirit alive. You're the one that's gonna make sure that he didn't leave for nothing. Now you're gonna have to go through hell. Worse than any nightmare you ever dreamed. But in the end, we know you'll be the one standing. 

            Aaron Rodgers: I'll try. 

            Packer Fans: You know what you have to do. Do it. Do it.

Week 14: Lost at Detroit Lions, 7-3

Ranked – 10

Even without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers should be good enough to score more than 3 points against the Detroit Lions.

Week 15: Lost at New England Patriots, 31-27

Ranked – 12

Great start, Matt Flynn. Aside from the final play of the game, quite an impressive effort. With only a Wild Card spot possible, the Packers must defeat the Giants on Sunday if they want to have any chance of making a February trip to Dallas.

Week 16: Defeated the New York Giants, 45-17

Ranked – 9

All the Pack have to do is beat the Bears.

Week 17: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 10-3

Ranked – 7

The Wild Card team nobody wants to face has been in survival mode for weeks now. Scary.

Wild Card Game: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 21-16

Ranked – 6

The kids nobody wanted in the dance have already ruined Philadelphia's season. Atlanta's magical run is next on the chopping block as the Packers try to become only the second 6th seed to win a Super Bowl in NFL history.

Divisional Game: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 48-21

Ranked – 1

The Bears may very well rue their week 17 loss to the Packers. Green Bay has already completely outclassed two elite NFC division champions and the Packers are quite familiar with Da Bears. Despite being on the road, Green Bay will be favored by most, including Creative Misfortune, to make another appearance in the Super Bowl.

Championship Game: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 21-14

Ranked – 2

Green Bay made the Bears pay for not knocking the Packers out of the playoffs back in Week 17 when they had a chance. Despite looking brilliant, both offensively and defensively, against Atlanta and Philadelphia, the Packers came back to earth against their rivals. With Chicago reduced to back-up quarterbacks in the second half, Green Bay could not put them away. Had they blown out the Bears 35-7, they might have remained Creative Misfortune's favorite.

Super Bowl XLV: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-25

Final Rank - 1

            It wasn't one of the greatest Super Bowls I have ever seen, but the Green Bay Packers, and young quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, took a huge step forward with their solid victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offense moved the ball when they had to. The defense won the game with their superior play. The pick-6 by Nick Collins in the first quarter set the stage for the rest of the game. Clay Matthews added a game-changing hit in the second half that forced Rashard Mendenhall to cough up the ball when all the momentum had shifted Pittsburgh's way and the Steelers were driving for a touchdown to take the lead.

Enjoy this, Packers fans. Your team has definitely made you proud. With the crowning of the Green Bay Packers as Super Bowl Champions, the lights have finally turned out on the 2010 NFL season…

Check back tomorrow for Creative Misfortune’s next feature – the Madness will not just be limited to March…

Super Bowl XLV - Roundup of Creative Misfortune

NFC #6 Green Bay Packers vs AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers
     (Actual ~ Green Bay, 31-25)
    
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-23. An outstanding defensive play by the Steelers will be the deciding factor of the game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23. A defensive battle in the first half gives way to some big offensive plays in the second half... Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field to set up a walk-off field goal to win the game... 7 Super Bowl Championships... Not bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Undecided - No Pick. Accuscore pulled the ultimate copout and picked Pittsburgh to win 50% of their simulations and Green Bay to win 50% of their simulations. I have a hard time believing that after 10,000 computer sims, both teams ended up winning exactly 5,000 simulations. What a joke- and for the biggest game of the season, no less! Only once before in 2010 have the Accuscore computers picked a game with a 50/50 split - week 1's contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Back then, they were credited with taking the home team, but in this case, since there is no home team, Accuscore will have no pick for the big game. The full write-up of Accuscore's game simulations can be seen here on their website. Computers shouldn't be so indecisive.
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-9. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 14-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay is only 1,186 miles away from Cowboys Stadium, whereas Pittsburgh is a slightly farther 1,242 miles away.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE

GREEN BAY PACKERS 

 

2010 NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

It wasn't one of the greatest Super Bowls I have ever seen, but the Green Bay Packers, and young quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, took a huge step forward tonight with their solid victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offense moved the ball when they had to. The defense won the game with their superior play. The pick-6 by Nick Collins in the first quarter that set the stage for the rest of the game. Clay Matthews added a game-changing hit in the second half that forced Rashard Mendenhall to cough up the ball when all the momentum had shifted Pittsburgh's way and the Steelers were driving for a touchdown to take the lead.

Enjoy this night, Packers fans. Your team has definitely made you proud. With the crowning of the Green Bay Packers as Super Bowl Champions, the lights have finally turned out on the 2010 NFL season.

Here's hoping the NFL owners and players will come to an agreement to turn the lights back on for the 2011 season.

2010 Prediction Scoreboard - Final Standings

     Vegas Picks: 174-93 (65.2%) *2 Perfect Picks
     Accuscore: 170-97 (63.7%)
     Scottie V's: 169-98 (63.3%)
     Creative Misfortune: 157-110 (58.8%) *1 Perfect Pick
     Best Record Wins Pick: 154-113 (57.7%) *3 Perfect Picks              
     Home Team Wins Pick: 148-119 (55.4%) *3 Perfect Picks
     What If Sports: 142-125 (53.2%) *1 Perfect Pick
                                                      

On Wednesday, The Art of Creative Misfortune NFL team recaps will begin being posted. Relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2010 season! Recaps will go up in draft order, so Carolina Panthers, you're on the clock...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Super Bowl XLV

After everything that has been said over the past two weeks, it's finally time to get this game played!

Super Bowl XLV Predictions:

NFC #6 Green Bay Packers vs AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-23. An outstanding defensive play by the Steelers will be the deciding factor of the game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23. A defensive battle in the first half gives way to some big offensive plays in the second half... Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field to set up a walk-off field goal to win the game... 7 Super Bowl Championships... Not bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Undecided - No Pick. Accuscore pulled the ultimate copout and picked Pittsburgh to win 50% of their simulations and Green Bay to win 50% of their simulations. I have a hard time believing that after 10,000 computer sims, both teams ended up winning exactly 5,000 simulations. What a joke- and for the biggest game of the season, no less! Only once before in 2010 have the Accuscore computers picked a game with a 50/50 split - week 1's contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Back then, they were credited with taking the home team, but in this case, since there is no home team, Accuscore will have no pick for the big game. The full write-up of Accuscore's game simulations can be seen here on their website. Computers shouldn't be so indecisive.
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-9. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 14-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay is only 1,186 miles away from Cowboys Stadium, whereas Pittsburgh is a slightly farther 1,242 miles away.



Next week, once the Super Bowl celebrations have wound down and the champion has been duly praised, complete season recaps for all teams will begin. Don't miss out on your chance to relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2010 season!

Super Bowl XLV Preview - Franchise Comparisons - Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Two storied franchises are set to battle it out in Dallas on Sunday to determine which one will become even more storied. We’ve compared the offenses. We’ve compared the defenses. Now let’s compare the organizations as a whole and see how they stack up to each other.

Founded -

            Green Bay Packers: 1919

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 1933

            Comment of Misfortune: Green Bay is older by 14 years and was part of the original National Football League.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 1-0

Stadium Capacity -

            Green Bay Packers: 73,128

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 64,450

            Comment of Misfortune: Since 73,128 is a few more drunken fans more than 64,450, I gotta rule in favor of Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 2-0

Uniform Colors -

            Green Bay Packers: Green and Gold

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Black and Gold

            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams apparently like gold, so that's a draw. However, football teams are more menacing dressed in black. I mean, would Darth vader have been nearly as scary if he wore green like a wee little leprechaun? I think not.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Green Bay, 2-1

Nickname -

            Green Bay Packers: Packers, Titletown USA, Cheeseheads

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers, Steel Curtain

            Comment of Misfortune: I don’t really know what Steelers are and Packers kind of scare me - what are they packing anyway? But since Steel Curtains can keep Cheeseheads locked up and out of harm's way, gotta give the nod to Pittsburgh.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 2-2

2010 Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (3-0)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 (2-0)

            Comment of Misfortune: Green Bay's 3-0 run on the road in the playoffs is quite impressive, but overall Pittsburgh's 14-4 record sounds better than 13-6.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 3-2

All-Time Regular Season Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 664-524-36 (.559 win %, since 1921)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 541-499-20 (.520 win %, since 1933)

            Comment of Misfortune: Not only has Green Bay played more games then Pittsburgh, they've won a higher percentage of them, too.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 3-3

All-Time Playoff Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 28-16 (.636 win %)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 33-19 (.635 win %)

            Comment of Misfortune: Come playoff time, however, Pittsburgh has played in more games, and won more games, than the Packers.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 4-3

2010 Touchdowns Scored -

            Green Bay Packers: 58 (regular season, 46; playoffs, 12)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 48 (regular season, 41; playoffs 7)

            Comment of Misfortune: The Packers offense has been quite prolific through most of the season and they have punched the ball into the end zone 10 times more than the Steelers.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 4-4

2010 Field Goals Scored -

            Green Bay Packers: 24 (regular season, 22; playoffs,2)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 (regular season, 29; playoffs, 2)

            Comment of Misfortune: In close, defensive battles, field goals can be of utmost importance. The Steelers have a significant edge here.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 5-4

Super Bowl Titles -

            Green Bay Packers: 3 ~ Super Bowls I, II and XXXI

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 ~ Super Bowls IX, X, XIII, XIV, XL, XLIII

            Comment of Misfortune: My grade-school math tells me 6 is twice as big as 3, so this category definitely falls Pittsburgh's way.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 6-4

Other Championships -

            Green Bay Packers: 9 ~ NFL Championships in 1929, 1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1944, 1961, 1962 and 1965

            Pittsburgh Steelers: None

            Comment of Misfortune: Yet if any grade-school kid can tell you 6 is twice as big as 3, it would take a mathematical genius to comprehend how many times 9 is bigger than 0. The answer may be undefined, but the result is clearly in Green Bay's favor.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Pittsburgh, 6-5

All-Time Record vs Each Other -

            Green Bay Packers: 18-14

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-18

            Comment of Misfortune: The Packers own the all-time series by four games…

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 6-6

Record in Last 10 Games vs Each Other (since December 1970) -

            Green Bay Packers: 3-7

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-3

            Comment of Misfortune: …but have been far from stellar against the Steelers when they have faced off during the last 40 years.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 7-6

Biggest All-Time Victory vs Each Other -

            Green Bay Packers: 47 points (GB 54, PIT 7; November 23, 1941)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 points (PIT 38, GB 7; November 7, 1948)

            Comment of Misfortune: Both blowouts took place in a black-and-white world, but Green Bay's 54 points in 1941 is far more impressive than the mere 38 points Pittsburgh managed in their 1948 victory.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 7-7

Total Franchise All-Pro Players -

            Green Bay Packers: 56 Players (named a total of 126 times)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 38 Players (named a total of 80 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to Pro's Pros, Green Bay has had almost 50% more All-Pro players on their rosters than the Steelers.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 8-7

Total Franchise Pro Bowl Players -

            Green Bay Packers: 118 Players (named a total of 257 times)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 114 Players (named a total of 290 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to fan balloting, both teams have had roughly the same number of players voted to the Pro Bowl, but Pittsburgh has sent their players nearly 50 more times to the glorified flag football game than Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 8-8

Pac-10 Players on Roster -

            Green Bay Packers: 7 - Nick Barnett (Oregon State), Desmond Bishop (California), Brandon Chillar (UCLA), Spencer Havner (UCLA), Clay Matthews (USC), Dmitri Nance (Arizona State) and Aaron Rodgers (California)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 3 - Dennis Dixon (Oregon), Keenan Lewis (Oregon State) and Troy Polamalu (USC)

            Comment of Misfortune: What's with all the non-Pac-10 players, Pittsburgh? Talk about East Coast bias. Left Coast Advantage - Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 9-8

Team Fans -

            Green Bay Packers: "Team Owners" wearing cheese-related headgear

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Blue-collar workers waving yellow-hankies in the air and screaming about how terrible they are; Scottie V.

            Comment of Misfortune: An alcohol-soaked cheesehead weaving towards you in a darkened alley would be far less menacing than a Steeler with a terrible towel coming at you.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 9-9

Final Judgment:

            Both franchises are among the true elites of the National Football League and remain deadlocked after 18 comparison categories. It should be one heck of a Super Bowl!

Check back tomorrow for the predictions of Creative Misfortune for Super Bowl XLV…Will either team be a unanimous pick by all prediction systems?