Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 16 (2014)

First round byes and division titles are on the line as Denver takes on Cincinnati. Almost all systems favor the Broncos to win, but who knows what Cincinnati team will show up tonight.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 3, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.668 - 0.543
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 6. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-69
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 11-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3


"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Fantasy Bowl IV results will be posted on New Year's Eve, because I will be traveling, but results will be based on the games played in Week 16. Happy Holidays, Everybody!

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 15 (2014)

The 5-8 Saints are still battling for supremacy in the NFC South, while the 5-8 Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention. Almost all systems favor New Orleans to get past Chicago and take sole possession of first place in their division. 

Monday Night Game Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 54
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.456 - 0.331
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-82
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Both teams at 5-8, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3


Week 15 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Conference Championship results will be posted on Wednesday. Who punched their ticket to Fantasy Bowl IV?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 14 (2014)

The Falcons have a shot to be in sole possession of first place in the NFC South. They just have to get by a Packers team that is playing lights out football. Hard to think this will be a great game, when all systems favor the Packers by an average score of 10 points, but then again, the Falcons could pull off an upset. That's why they play the games!

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 16
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 13. Packers by 13, Over/Under 56
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.698 - 0.484
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 101-72
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 9-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3


Week 14 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. Divisional round results will be posted on Wednesday. Which teams advanced to the conference championships?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 13 (2014)

Traveling this week, so no prediction stat recaps will be posted. The prediction standings will be updated sometime this week.

All systems, save the blind Home Team Wins formula, favor the Miami Dolphins to win tonight by an average score of 10 points.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 18
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 7. Dolphins by 6.5, Over/Under 41.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 17. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.651 - 0.219
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 12. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-48
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphisn better at 6-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3


Week 13 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Wild Card results will be posted on Wednesday. Which teams advanced to the divisional round games?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 12 (2014)

Almost all systems hit the 70% accuracy mark in week 12 as NFL teams stayed truer to form than most weeks of the season so far.

The Fantasy Projections and the Best Record Wins formulas both picked 11 out of 13 games correctly for an outstanding 84.6% accuracy.

The Vegas Lines system came in third place this week by picking 10 out of 13 games correctly for 76.9% accuracy.

All other systems picked 9 out of 13 games correctly for 69.2% accuracy.

All systems favor the Buffalo Bills to win tonight in their "home" makeup game on the road in Detroit. In the normally scheduled Monday Night game, most systems favor the Ravens to defeat the Saints tonight.


Monday Night Game Predictions:

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4. Bills by 4, Over/Under 39
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.488 - 0.270
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 11. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-48
     Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 5-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 50
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.704 - 0.521
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-78
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3


Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams punched their ticket to the fantasy fopotball playoffs?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 11 (2014)

All systems struggled to perform in week 11 as NFL teams scrambled to maintain their position in the chase for playoff spots.

Almost all systems picked just 7 out of 13 games correctly this weekend, for an uninspiring 53.9% accuracy.

Only two systems did not finish the week picking 7 games correctly and those were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections. Both of those formulas only managed to pick 5 of the 13 games correctly, to finish with a terrible 38.5% accuracy.

All systems, except the blind Home Team Wins formula, favor the Pittsburgh Steelers to win tonight on the road.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 6. Steelers by 5.5, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.552 - 0.262
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 91-57
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3

Week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 10 (2014)

All systems performed well in week 10, with the exception of the blind Home Team Wins formula.

Three systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 9 out of 12 games correctly for 75% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Vegas Lines formula, and the Pythagorean Theorem formula.

Three systems came close to the 70% accuracy mark by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula.

The blind Home Team Wins formula finished in sole possession of last place this week, only picking 6 out of 12 games correctly, for a 50% accuracy.

All systems favor the Philadelphia Eagles to win tonight at home by about 9 points.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 6. Eagles by 6, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 13. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.660 - 0.336
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 10. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 6-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3


Week 10 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 9 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 9 went to the Vegas Lines formula, which picked 9 out of 12 games correctly for an impressive 75% accuracy.

Both of the blind pick systems - Best Record Wins and Home Team Wins - finished the week tied for second place by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for a very solid 66.7% accuracy.

The remaining formulas all struggled this week, hitting less than 60% accuracy with the following results: Fantasy Projections picked 7 out of 12 games correctly (58.3%), while Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Pythagoren Theorem formula both picked 6 out of 12 games correctly (50.0%). Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula finished last, only picking 4 out of 12 games correctly for a season-low 41.7% accuracy.

Most systems favor the Indianapolis Colts to win on the road, but two systems predict a victory for the Giants coming out of their bye week.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 50.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 9. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.666 - 0.445
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 12. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 100-67
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 5-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3

Week 9 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. It's crunch time of the fantasy football season. With only four weeks remaining before the playoffs, every point is critical, and all teams, except the New York Jets, have a shot at the fantasy playoffs.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 8 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 8 went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Vegas Lines formula. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 11 out of 14 games correctly (78.6%).

Three systems - Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula - finshed the week tied for third place and also exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for 71.4% accuracy.

The Pythagoren Theorem formula picked 9 games out of 14 correctly for a 64.3% accuracy, while blindly picking the Home Team to win netted 8 out of 14 picks correctly for the very 'home team wins' accuracy of 57.1%.

All systems favor the Dallas Cowboys to improve to the best overall record in the league tonight when they take on the Washington Redskins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 12
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 10. Cowboys by 10, Over/Under 49.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.388
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Week 8 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With only four weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, every win is crucial. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 7 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 7, the seventh week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Best overall picks of the week went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY and the blind Home Team Wins formulas. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 10 out of 14 games correctly (71.4%)

Almost all other systems picked a solid 9 out of 14 games correctly, for a very respectable 64.3% accuracy.

The blind Best Record Wins formula finished with the worst predictions of the week, only predicting 8 out of 14 games correctly for 57.1% accuracy, the traditional success rate for just picking the home team to win.

The prediction systems are split on tonight's matchup between Pittsburgh and Houston. Both Creative Misfortune's PPY formulas and the Pythagorean Theorem formula favor the Texans to win on the road. The Vegas Lines, Fantasy Projections, and the two blind pick systems favor the Steelers to prevail at home. It should be a good game that could go either way.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 44.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 5. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.556 - 0.433
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-63
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 3-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3


Week 7 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 6 (2014)

At the coast this weekend, so no weekly prediction recap this Monday. All systems favor the 49ers to win in St. Louis tonight, except the Home Team Wins formula. Enjoy! 


Monday Night Game Prediction:

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 8
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers by 3, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.522 - 0.305
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a fantasy score of 64-62
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 3-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3


Week 6 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 5 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 5, the fifth week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Three systems picked games brilliantly this weekend. The Vegas Lines formula picked 12 out of 14 games correctly for an amazing 85.7% accuracy - the best all season. Both the Home Team Wins formula (11/14 78.6%) and the Best Record Wins formula (10/14 71.4%) exceeded the 70% accuracy mark as well.

Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula picked 9 out of 14 games correctly, for a solid 64.3% accuracy.

The Fantasy Projections formula picked 8 out of 14 games accurately for a typical Home Team Wins success rate of 57.1%.

Both Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY and the Pythagorean Theorem formulas struggled again in week 5, only predicting 6 out of 14 game winners correctly for a terrible 42.9% accuracy.

Most systems, except Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Home Team Wins formula, favor the Seattle Seahawks to win on the road in tonight's matchup.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8. Seahawks by 7.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 9. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.633 - 0.419
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-68
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3


Week 5 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With so many close overtime games, there's a good chance at least a couple teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 4 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 4, the fourth week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

It was a rough week for predictions. The Vegas Lines formula won the week by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly over the weekend (66.7%). This is the first time all season the Vegas Lines formula has bested all the other prediction systems.

The Pythagorean Theorem, Best Record Wins and Home Team Wins systems all tied for second place by picking 7 out of 12 games correctly (58.3%).

Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, after exceeeding the 70% accuracy mark last week, dropped off significantly this week and only predicted 5 out of 12 games correctly for a very disappointing 41.7% accuracy for the week.

The worst prediction performances of the week were turned in by Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections system. Both prediction systems only managed to pick 4 out of 12 games correctly for a season-low accuracy of 33.3%.

All systems, except the Home Team Wins system, favor the New England Patriots to win on the road tonight.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 11
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 4. Patriots by 3.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 8. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.669 - 0.462
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 7. New England Patriots projected to win by a fantasy score of 79-58
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3

Week 4 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 3 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 3, the third week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Both Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections formula exceeded the magical 70% accuracy mark by picking 11 out of 15 games correctly over the weekend (73.3%). They will both stay above the 70% success rate for the week if Chicago prevails in tonight's game.

The Vegas Lines system came in at third place, picking 10 out of 15 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy.

The Home Team Wins formula predicted 9 out of 15 games correctly (60% accuracy, slightly above average). The Pythagorean Theorem formula struggled again this week as it continues to find balance early in the season schedule, only hitting 8 out of 15 games correctly (53.3% accuracy).

The worst prediction performance of the week was turned in by the Best Record Wins formula as a host of 0-2 teams scrambled to break into the win column for the first time all season. As a result, the Best Record Wins formula only predicted 6 out of 15 games correctly for a terrible 40% accuracy mark, by far the worst weekly result of the season.

The systems are divided once again on the Monday Night Football matchup with four system favoring the Bears (Overall PPY, Home/Away PPY, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) and three systems favoring the Jets to win at home (Vegas Lines, Best Record Wins, and Home Team Wins). Either way, I suspect a slow-moving game with few big plays where the first team to score two touchdowns wins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Chicago Bears at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 2.5, Over/Under 45.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 4. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.565 - 0.473
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 5. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 79-66
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 1-1, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3


Week 3 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 2 (2014)

No prediction system managed to hit the 70% accuracy mark in week two. In fact, no system managed to pick better than just picking the home team to win, which is a testament to just how wild and crazy the NFL games can be. 

The systems are divided on who will win the Monday Night Football contest, with four systems favoring the Eagles to win on the road and three systems favoring the Colts to win at home. Either way, should be a great, high-scoring game.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 53.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 19. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.838 - 0.353
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-75
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 1-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3


Week 2 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?