Super Bowl XLV - Roundup of Creative Misfortune

NFC #6 Green Bay Packers vs AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers
     (Actual ~ Green Bay, 31-25)
    
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-23. An outstanding defensive play by the Steelers will be the deciding factor of the game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23. A defensive battle in the first half gives way to some big offensive plays in the second half... Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field to set up a walk-off field goal to win the game... 7 Super Bowl Championships... Not bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Undecided - No Pick. Accuscore pulled the ultimate copout and picked Pittsburgh to win 50% of their simulations and Green Bay to win 50% of their simulations. I have a hard time believing that after 10,000 computer sims, both teams ended up winning exactly 5,000 simulations. What a joke- and for the biggest game of the season, no less! Only once before in 2010 have the Accuscore computers picked a game with a 50/50 split - week 1's contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Back then, they were credited with taking the home team, but in this case, since there is no home team, Accuscore will have no pick for the big game. The full write-up of Accuscore's game simulations can be seen here on their website. Computers shouldn't be so indecisive.
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-9. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 14-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay is only 1,186 miles away from Cowboys Stadium, whereas Pittsburgh is a slightly farther 1,242 miles away.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE

GREEN BAY PACKERS 

 

2010 NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

It wasn't one of the greatest Super Bowls I have ever seen, but the Green Bay Packers, and young quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, took a huge step forward tonight with their solid victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offense moved the ball when they had to. The defense won the game with their superior play. The pick-6 by Nick Collins in the first quarter that set the stage for the rest of the game. Clay Matthews added a game-changing hit in the second half that forced Rashard Mendenhall to cough up the ball when all the momentum had shifted Pittsburgh's way and the Steelers were driving for a touchdown to take the lead.

Enjoy this night, Packers fans. Your team has definitely made you proud. With the crowning of the Green Bay Packers as Super Bowl Champions, the lights have finally turned out on the 2010 NFL season.

Here's hoping the NFL owners and players will come to an agreement to turn the lights back on for the 2011 season.

2010 Prediction Scoreboard - Final Standings

     Vegas Picks: 174-93 (65.2%) *2 Perfect Picks
     Accuscore: 170-97 (63.7%)
     Scottie V's: 169-98 (63.3%)
     Creative Misfortune: 157-110 (58.8%) *1 Perfect Pick
     Best Record Wins Pick: 154-113 (57.7%) *3 Perfect Picks              
     Home Team Wins Pick: 148-119 (55.4%) *3 Perfect Picks
     What If Sports: 142-125 (53.2%) *1 Perfect Pick
                                                      

On Wednesday, The Art of Creative Misfortune NFL team recaps will begin being posted. Relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2010 season! Recaps will go up in draft order, so Carolina Panthers, you're on the clock...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Super Bowl XLV

After everything that has been said over the past two weeks, it's finally time to get this game played!

Super Bowl XLV Predictions:

NFC #6 Green Bay Packers vs AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-23. An outstanding defensive play by the Steelers will be the deciding factor of the game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23. A defensive battle in the first half gives way to some big offensive plays in the second half... Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field to set up a walk-off field goal to win the game... 7 Super Bowl Championships... Not bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Undecided - No Pick. Accuscore pulled the ultimate copout and picked Pittsburgh to win 50% of their simulations and Green Bay to win 50% of their simulations. I have a hard time believing that after 10,000 computer sims, both teams ended up winning exactly 5,000 simulations. What a joke- and for the biggest game of the season, no less! Only once before in 2010 have the Accuscore computers picked a game with a 50/50 split - week 1's contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Back then, they were credited with taking the home team, but in this case, since there is no home team, Accuscore will have no pick for the big game. The full write-up of Accuscore's game simulations can be seen here on their website. Computers shouldn't be so indecisive.
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-9. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 14-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay is only 1,186 miles away from Cowboys Stadium, whereas Pittsburgh is a slightly farther 1,242 miles away.



Next week, once the Super Bowl celebrations have wound down and the champion has been duly praised, complete season recaps for all teams will begin. Don't miss out on your chance to relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2010 season!

Super Bowl XLV Preview - Franchise Comparisons - Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Two storied franchises are set to battle it out in Dallas on Sunday to determine which one will become even more storied. We’ve compared the offenses. We’ve compared the defenses. Now let’s compare the organizations as a whole and see how they stack up to each other.

Founded -

            Green Bay Packers: 1919

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 1933

            Comment of Misfortune: Green Bay is older by 14 years and was part of the original National Football League.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 1-0

Stadium Capacity -

            Green Bay Packers: 73,128

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 64,450

            Comment of Misfortune: Since 73,128 is a few more drunken fans more than 64,450, I gotta rule in favor of Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 2-0

Uniform Colors -

            Green Bay Packers: Green and Gold

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Black and Gold

            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams apparently like gold, so that's a draw. However, football teams are more menacing dressed in black. I mean, would Darth vader have been nearly as scary if he wore green like a wee little leprechaun? I think not.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Green Bay, 2-1

Nickname -

            Green Bay Packers: Packers, Titletown USA, Cheeseheads

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers, Steel Curtain

            Comment of Misfortune: I don’t really know what Steelers are and Packers kind of scare me - what are they packing anyway? But since Steel Curtains can keep Cheeseheads locked up and out of harm's way, gotta give the nod to Pittsburgh.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 2-2

2010 Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (3-0)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 (2-0)

            Comment of Misfortune: Green Bay's 3-0 run on the road in the playoffs is quite impressive, but overall Pittsburgh's 14-4 record sounds better than 13-6.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 3-2

All-Time Regular Season Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 664-524-36 (.559 win %, since 1921)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 541-499-20 (.520 win %, since 1933)

            Comment of Misfortune: Not only has Green Bay played more games then Pittsburgh, they've won a higher percentage of them, too.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 3-3

All-Time Playoff Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 28-16 (.636 win %)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 33-19 (.635 win %)

            Comment of Misfortune: Come playoff time, however, Pittsburgh has played in more games, and won more games, than the Packers.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 4-3

2010 Touchdowns Scored -

            Green Bay Packers: 58 (regular season, 46; playoffs, 12)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 48 (regular season, 41; playoffs 7)

            Comment of Misfortune: The Packers offense has been quite prolific through most of the season and they have punched the ball into the end zone 10 times more than the Steelers.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 4-4

2010 Field Goals Scored -

            Green Bay Packers: 24 (regular season, 22; playoffs,2)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 (regular season, 29; playoffs, 2)

            Comment of Misfortune: In close, defensive battles, field goals can be of utmost importance. The Steelers have a significant edge here.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 5-4

Super Bowl Titles -

            Green Bay Packers: 3 ~ Super Bowls I, II and XXXI

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 ~ Super Bowls IX, X, XIII, XIV, XL, XLIII

            Comment of Misfortune: My grade-school math tells me 6 is twice as big as 3, so this category definitely falls Pittsburgh's way.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 6-4

Other Championships -

            Green Bay Packers: 9 ~ NFL Championships in 1929, 1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1944, 1961, 1962 and 1965

            Pittsburgh Steelers: None

            Comment of Misfortune: Yet if any grade-school kid can tell you 6 is twice as big as 3, it would take a mathematical genius to comprehend how many times 9 is bigger than 0. The answer may be undefined, but the result is clearly in Green Bay's favor.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Pittsburgh, 6-5

All-Time Record vs Each Other -

            Green Bay Packers: 18-14

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-18

            Comment of Misfortune: The Packers own the all-time series by four games…

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 6-6

Record in Last 10 Games vs Each Other (since December 1970) -

            Green Bay Packers: 3-7

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-3

            Comment of Misfortune: …but have been far from stellar against the Steelers when they have faced off during the last 40 years.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 7-6

Biggest All-Time Victory vs Each Other -

            Green Bay Packers: 47 points (GB 54, PIT 7; November 23, 1941)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 points (PIT 38, GB 7; November 7, 1948)

            Comment of Misfortune: Both blowouts took place in a black-and-white world, but Green Bay's 54 points in 1941 is far more impressive than the mere 38 points Pittsburgh managed in their 1948 victory.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 7-7

Total Franchise All-Pro Players -

            Green Bay Packers: 56 Players (named a total of 126 times)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 38 Players (named a total of 80 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to Pro's Pros, Green Bay has had almost 50% more All-Pro players on their rosters than the Steelers.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 8-7

Total Franchise Pro Bowl Players -

            Green Bay Packers: 118 Players (named a total of 257 times)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 114 Players (named a total of 290 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to fan balloting, both teams have had roughly the same number of players voted to the Pro Bowl, but Pittsburgh has sent their players nearly 50 more times to the glorified flag football game than Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 8-8

Pac-10 Players on Roster -

            Green Bay Packers: 7 - Nick Barnett (Oregon State), Desmond Bishop (California), Brandon Chillar (UCLA), Spencer Havner (UCLA), Clay Matthews (USC), Dmitri Nance (Arizona State) and Aaron Rodgers (California)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 3 - Dennis Dixon (Oregon), Keenan Lewis (Oregon State) and Troy Polamalu (USC)

            Comment of Misfortune: What's with all the non-Pac-10 players, Pittsburgh? Talk about East Coast bias. Left Coast Advantage - Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 9-8

Team Fans -

            Green Bay Packers: "Team Owners" wearing cheese-related headgear

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Blue-collar workers waving yellow-hankies in the air and screaming about how terrible they are; Scottie V.

            Comment of Misfortune: An alcohol-soaked cheesehead weaving towards you in a darkened alley would be far less menacing than a Steeler with a terrible towel coming at you.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 9-9

Final Judgment:

            Both franchises are among the true elites of the National Football League and remain deadlocked after 18 comparison categories. It should be one heck of a Super Bowl!

Check back tomorrow for the predictions of Creative Misfortune for Super Bowl XLV…Will either team be a unanimous pick by all prediction systems?

Super Bowl XLV Preview - Pittsburgh Offense vs Green Bay Defense

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that can win by blowing out their opponents or by grinding out a victory in a slugfest. Few teams can win as ugly and as often as the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is tough to bring down and is quite nimble in the pocket for a man of his size. His ability to extend plays while defensive linemen are draped all over him will force the Green Bay secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Hines Ward, a violent, possession receiver, anchors the Steelers receiving corps, while the speedster Mike Wallace can stretch secondaries.

Pittsburgh may not be the best passing team in the league, but they have the low-down dirty ability to pound opponents with their running game. Spearheaded by Rashard Mendenhall, plus the added dynamic of Roethlisberger's ability to run the football himself, Pittsburgh can control the clock and devastate defenses with their rushing prowess. The offensive line has managed to stay reasonably healthy this season, though like all others they have been banged up enough that their backup players have been forced to shine. The Steelers may actually be the only team able to come from behind by running the football, since their defense is so strong.

The Green Bay Packers defense has played lights out football during their run through the playoffs. While Pittsburgh won’t ever wow you with their offense, the Packers will have to play tougher than they have all season in order to get the ball back into the hands of their talented offense. Green Bay can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Steelers if their offense can give them a two-score lead.



Super Bowl XLV Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games


            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points


                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Steelers Offense vs	Packers Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	179	100
Rushing Yards	2161	2047	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.083	0.049	0.066
At their Best (DEF worst)	206 yards	196 yards	201 yards = 13.3 pts = 13 pts
2010 Average	120 yards	108 yards	114 yards = 7.5 pts = 8 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	54 yards	39 yards	47 yards = 3.1 pts = 3 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	215	171
Passing Yards	3913	3745	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.055	0.046	0.053
At their Best (DEF Worst)	349 yards	322 yards	336 yards = 17.8 pts = 18 pts
2010 Average	217 yards	197 yards	207 yards = 10.9 pts = 11 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	21 yards	62 yards	42 yards = 2.2 pts   = 2 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	13 pts + 18 pts	31
2010 Average	8 pts + 11 pts	19
At their Worst	3 pts + 2 pts	5

Project Pittsburgh Steelers Score: 17 points

Based on the Green Bay projections from yesterday versus the Pittsburgh defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Green Bay to win a close shoot-out, 33-31.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect another close game with Green Bay coming out on top, 21-19. Pittsburgh loves games that have at least one team scoring 19 points...

In a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle, expect Green Bay's offense to be the one to generate the lone touchdown in a 10-6 battle.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if Pittsburgh hopes to win, they will need to force some turnovers to give their offense extra help and break off some dynamic returns with their special teams. If any team can overcome the potential shortcomings of their offense, the Steelers can.


Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…

Super Bowl XLV Preview - Green Bay Offense vs Pittsburgh Defense

The Green Bay Packers can be truly outstanding on the offensive side of the ball. When Aaron Rodgers is dialed in, no defensive secondary can contain him and even defensive lines have a hard time bringing this elusive quarterback down. Rodgers also has one of the most unselfish receiving corps to throw to – a rarity in today’s NFL.

While Green Bay has excelled this season by beating teams with their passing game, they have struggled to run the football and have quickly become the Indianapolis Colts of the NFC. Injuries to both their running backs and their offensive line have hurt Green Bay’s ability to establish the run in 2010. However, with the emergence of running back James Starks, the Packer rushing attack has switched into a higher gear. They may not break the 100-yard mark, but at least defenses now have to pretend to respect their ability to run the ball.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense will have to be at their best if they hope to slow down the Packer offense. The Steelers have played admirably this season and have been able to shut most opponents down. Pittsburgh has won games when their offense has struggled simply by the defense rising up to the next level and taking matters into their own hands. They may not be a modern reincarnation of the Steel Curtain defenses of the 70’s, but their success or failure will impact the final score directly. If the Steelers defense can’t figure out a way to frustrate Rodgers and Co, it will be a very long day for Pittsburgh fans.

Super Bowl XLV Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Packers Offense vs	Steelers Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	141	84
Rushing Yards	1960	1109	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.072	0.076	0.074
At their Best (DEF worst)	157 yards	106 yards allowed	132 yards = 9.7 pts = 10 pts
2010 Average	103 yards	62 yards allowed	83 yards = 6.1 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	60 yards	30 yards allowed	45 yards = 3.3 pts = 3 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	295	168
Passing Yards	4877	3735	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.061	0.045	0.053
At their Best (DEF Worst)	515 yards	350 yards allowed	433 yards = 22.9 pts = 23 pts
2010 Average	360 yards	208 yards allowed	284 yards = 15.1 pts = 15 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	237 yards	45 yards allowed	141 yards = 7.5 pts   = 8 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	10 pts + 23 pts	33
2010 Average	6 pts + 15 pts	21
At their Worst	3 pts + 8 pts	11

Project Green Bay Score: 21 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Pittsburgh Steelers offense compares to the Green Bay Packers defense. Will the Pittsburgh numbers put them over the 21 points Green Bay is projected to score?