Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 13 (2014)

Traveling this week, so no prediction stat recaps will be posted. The prediction standings will be updated sometime this week.

All systems, save the blind Home Team Wins formula, favor the Miami Dolphins to win tonight by an average score of 10 points.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 18
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 7. Dolphins by 6.5, Over/Under 41.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 17. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.651 - 0.219
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 12. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-48
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphisn better at 6-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3


Week 13 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Wild Card results will be posted on Wednesday. Which teams advanced to the divisional round games?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 12 (2014)

Almost all systems hit the 70% accuracy mark in week 12 as NFL teams stayed truer to form than most weeks of the season so far.

The Fantasy Projections and the Best Record Wins formulas both picked 11 out of 13 games correctly for an outstanding 84.6% accuracy.

The Vegas Lines system came in third place this week by picking 10 out of 13 games correctly for 76.9% accuracy.

All other systems picked 9 out of 13 games correctly for 69.2% accuracy.

All systems favor the Buffalo Bills to win tonight in their "home" makeup game on the road in Detroit. In the normally scheduled Monday Night game, most systems favor the Ravens to defeat the Saints tonight.


Monday Night Game Predictions:

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4. Bills by 4, Over/Under 39
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.488 - 0.270
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 11. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-48
     Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 5-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 50
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.704 - 0.521
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-78
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3


Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams punched their ticket to the fantasy fopotball playoffs?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 7 (2014)

Does anybody see the Jets winning tonight's game? even the most die-hard Jets fans will have a hard time believing in a victory over the Patriots. All systems favor New England to win by about two touchdowns. 


Thursday Night Game Prediction:

New York Jets at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 16
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 18
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 10. Patriots by 9.5, Over/Under 44.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 16. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.235
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 17. New England Patriots projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-42
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better At 4-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 7 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 3 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 3, the third week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Both Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections formula exceeded the magical 70% accuracy mark by picking 11 out of 15 games correctly over the weekend (73.3%). They will both stay above the 70% success rate for the week if Chicago prevails in tonight's game.

The Vegas Lines system came in at third place, picking 10 out of 15 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy.

The Home Team Wins formula predicted 9 out of 15 games correctly (60% accuracy, slightly above average). The Pythagorean Theorem formula struggled again this week as it continues to find balance early in the season schedule, only hitting 8 out of 15 games correctly (53.3% accuracy).

The worst prediction performance of the week was turned in by the Best Record Wins formula as a host of 0-2 teams scrambled to break into the win column for the first time all season. As a result, the Best Record Wins formula only predicted 6 out of 15 games correctly for a terrible 40% accuracy mark, by far the worst weekly result of the season.

The systems are divided once again on the Monday Night Football matchup with four system favoring the Bears (Overall PPY, Home/Away PPY, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) and three systems favoring the Jets to win at home (Vegas Lines, Best Record Wins, and Home Team Wins). Either way, I suspect a slow-moving game with few big plays where the first team to score two touchdowns wins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Chicago Bears at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 2.5, Over/Under 45.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 4. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.565 - 0.473
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 5. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 79-66
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 1-1, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3


Week 3 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Season Recap - 2013 New York Jets

New York Jets



Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 2nd Place in the AFC East
2014 Draft Position: 18th

Preseason Ranking: 29

Week 1: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 18-17
    Ranked - 16
    Ugly, ugly win over the Buccaneers. Could bode well for their Thursday Night game against the Patriots.

Week 2: Lost at the New England Patriots, 13-10
    Ranked - 22
    Is there any team in the league that plays uglier football than the New York Jets?

Week 3: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 27-20
    Ranked - 15
    The Jets are still winning ugly, but unlike past seasons, they are winning. Looks like we have definitely seen the end of Mark Sanchez's inaccurate reign of terror.

Week 4: Lost at the Tennessee Titans, 38-13
    Ranked - 20
    So much for winning and losing ugly… the Jets just got clobberd by the Titans.

Week 5: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 30-28
    Ranked - 16
    Well that was certainly an impressive win on Monday Night over the Falcons. At least we know one thing for certain about the Jets - we've seen the last of Mark Sanchez.

Week 6: Lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 19-6
    Ranked - 21
    Just when you think they have it all figured out, they lose at home in an ugly game.

Week 7: Defeated the New England Patriots, 30-27
    Ranked - 14
    The only thing, honestly, that surprised me about the Jets upset of the Patriots last week was the number of points scored in the contest. The Jets get an impressive, much-needed win at home over their division rivals.

Week 8: Lost at the Cincinnati Bengals, 49-9
    Ranked - 16
    Isn't it just like the Jets to win a great game over their division rivals and then get completely blown out the following week?

Week 9: Defeated the New Orleans Saints, 26-20
    Ranked - 14
    Huge win for the Jets at home to follow up a huge loss last week. This win one, lose one approach won't get them to the playoffs though.

Week 10: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 16
    A winning record coming out of the bye week? Few predicted that for the Jets.

Week 11: Lost at the Buffalo Bills, 37-14
    Ranked - 17
    The Jets looked so good before their bye week. It's like the break turned them into a horrible team overnight.

Week 12: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 19-3
    Ranked - 22
    The Jets showed a lot of promise, but now they seem to be finally playing as well as everybody thought they would.

Week 13: Lost to the Miami Dolphins, 23-3
    Ranked - 23
    In our eagerness to be rid of Mark Sanchez, perfhaps we proclaimed the era of Geno Smith too soon?

Week 14: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 37-27
    Ranked - 19
    The Jets gained a little bit of relevance in the AFC playoff chase, but the offense is just too erratic in order for them to make it to the postseason.

Week 15: Lost at the Carolina Panthers, 30-20
    Ranked - 21
    The Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs for the third straight year… now they need to focus on building an offense that can compete in the AFC East.

Week 16: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 24-13
    Ranked - 21
    Out of the playoffs, the Jets still have a say in the AFC wild Card picture when they take on the Miami Dolphins.

Week 17: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 20-7

Final Ranking: 19


Tomorrow, the 2013 Miami Dolphins...

Season Recap - 2011 New York Jets

Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 2^nd Place in the AFC East
2012 Draft Position: 16^th

Preseason Ranking: 9

Week 1: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 27-24
    Ranked - 11
    Super Bowl caliber teams should not need a blocked punt and a huge mental mistake by the opposing quarterback to win a game. The Jets play gritty and have proven time and time again they can win both ugly and often.

Week 2: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 32-3
    Ranked - 3
    The Jets won by 29 points while only rushing for 100 yards and passing for less than 200. If they aren't the anti-Patriots, I have no idea who is.

Week 3: Lost at the Oakland Raiders, 34-24
    Ranked - 7
    Note to self: When the media focuses too much on your most recent loss (especially if it's a game that could have easily been won), start bickering with a franchise legend. Sure, it won't be pretty, but then again, neither is your offense. Signed, Rex Ryan.

Week 4: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 34-17
    Ranked - 15
    The Ravens thoroughly grounded the Jets and made their claims of being an elite AFC team look suspect. Behind Sanchez, New York's "Ground and Pound" offense is downright offensive.

Week 5: Lost at the New England Patriots, 30-21
    Ranked - 17
    From 2-0 to 2-3. The Jets offense is terrible and the defense has to play perfect in order for their offense to have a chance. The Jets will implode if they allow the winless Dolphins to defeat them at home on Monday night.

Week 6: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 24-6
    Ranked - 17     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers Safety: Hello, Cromartie.
    Antonio Cromartie: Eric Weddle. I always knew some day you'd come walking back through my door. I never doubted that. Something made it inevitable. So, what are you doing here in New York?
    Eric Weddle: We need to make up for one of the playoff losses you helped us collect.
    [Cromartie surprises Weddle with a right cross to the jaw]
    Antonio Cromartie: I've learned to hate you in the last few years!

Week 7: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 27-21
    Ranked - 11
    If the defense can keep the Jets in a game, the offense should be just talented enough to win it at the end.

Week 8: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 12
    The fate of the Jets will be decided in the next two weeks as they come out of the bye week with games scheduled against Buffalo and New England. That should give them something to talk about.

Week 9: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 27-11
    Ranked - 11
    A big win over the Bills gives the loud-mouthed Jets some nice momentum as they ready themselves for a classic tilt against the struggling New England Patriots.

Week 10: Lost to the New England Patriots, 37-16
    Ranked - 14
    The Jets set themselves up to take a big leap forward or a huge step back with their talk leading up to the game against the Patriots… and New England sent them reeling backwards.

Week 11: Lost at the Denver Broncos, 17-13
    Ranked - 14
    How cool was that to see the vaunted Jets defense lose the game on a two-minute, 95-yard touchdown drive?

Week 12: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 28-24
    Ranked - 14
    A full two games back in the division with five left to play, the Jets need to run the table to have any shot at a playoff spot.

Week 13: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 34-19
    Ranked - 12
    New York is on the outside looking in at the playoffs after 12 weeks, but if any team has the ability to make a late season run deep into the playoffs, the Jets do.

Week 14: Defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 37-10
    Ranked - 9
    The Jets are making their late season run. Watch out.

Week 15: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 45-19
    Ranked - 12
    These guys can shut up anytime, but I do hope they can somehow recover from the beatdown in Philadelphia last week and go on to win the Battle of New York.

Week 16: Lost to the New York Giants, 29-14
    Ranked - 16
    One more loss and we can be done listening to these idiots… at least for a few months.

Week 17: Lost at the Miami Dolphins, 19-17


Final Ranking: 18


Tomorrow, the 2011 Oakland Raiders...

Season Recap - 2010 New York Jets

Final Record: 11-5 (2-1)

Finished: 2^nd Place in the AFC East; Lost in the AFC Championship Game

2011 Draft Position: 29^th

Preseason Ranking:   2
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

One of the biggest surprise teams in last year's NFL and the beneficiary of the most gift-wrapped entrance ever into the playoffs, the New York Jets are under a lot of pressure now to repeat their performance from a year ago. Despite their tear through the final games of the season, a lot of questions still linger in New Jersey.

Will quarterback Mark Sanchez continue his brilliant, if sometimes erratic, rookie play or succumb to the dreaded sophomore slump? Will the defense, stellar last season behind the ball-hawking abilities of cornerback Darrelle Revis, be able to play at such a high level once again? Will Revis' holdout impact the defense's cohesiveness once September rolls around?

Not only are their questions surrounding last season, but the addition of older veterans, chief among them Ladainian Tomlinson and Laveranues Coles, also add some interesting possibilities for the high-flying Jets.

At least we can be certain of one thing. Rex Ryan will entertain us, whether or not the Jets are able to continue their success from last year. He's trimmed down during the offseason and signed a two-year extension to coach the team. Brimming with confidence, his fiery attitude should be enough to keep the Jets in position to challenge for the division.

By the time the bye week rolls around in week seven, we will know if the Jets were for real last season or the beneficiaries of better teams laying down and giving them a free pass when they shouldn't have.

Week 1: Lost to Baltimore Ravens, 10-9

Ranked – 17

Defense alone keeps you even rated this high. If your defense was not among the elite, you might have found yourself falling from #2 all the way into the Forked Few. 60 passing yards compared to 125 penalty yards. Dink and dunk doesn't work on 3rd & 20.

Week 2: Defeated the New England Patriots, 28-14

Ranked – 13

How sad are Patriot fans today? Sanchez outdueled Brady for a solid victory. Talk about a couple of glamour boys.

Week 3: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 31-23

Ranked – 9

Road wins against division opponents are always difficult to come by and for the second straight week Mark Sanchez plays error free. If he keeps it going, the Jets will be flying high come January, because the defense and running game provide a solid foundation for the Sanchize.

Week 4: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 38-14

Ranked – 3

How many touchdowns could a Sanchize chuck if a Sanchize could chuck touchdowns? A Sanchize could chuck ALL the touchdowns, if the running backs didn't score them first. 

Week 5: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 29-20

Ranked – 1

Four straight victories - three over division opponents and one over the Vikings - without a single turnover make the Jets the team to beat in the NFL.

Week 6: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 24-20

Ranked – 1

A tough road victory keeps the Jets at the top of the power rankings for at least one more week.

Week 7: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 1

During their bye week, nobody emerged as being clearly better than the Jets.

Week 8: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 9-0

Ranked – 2

Only allowing 9 points to a top offensive unit - good idea. Only scoring 0 points yourself - bad idea. Sanchez has the potential to be a great quarterback, but he's not yet ready to carry the team by himself.

Week 9: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 23-20

Ranked – 4

Good thing for the Jets that Suh can't kick an extra point, otherwise the Sanchize would be under siege in New York this week.

Week 10: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 26-20

Ranked – 2

New York gets the edge over New England for the second overall spot because, even though it took five full quarters of play, they could beat Cleveland in the Dawg Pound and the Patriots couldn't.

Week 11: Defeated the Houston Texans, 30-27

Ranked – 2

Eventually the Jets will have to figure out a way to beat a team before the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

Week 12: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 26-10

Ranked – 2

Rex Ryan can laugh and joke all he wants, but deep down he has to be just a little bit scared of what his Jets offense will be able to accomplish on the road in New England after it has struggled a bit of late to outscore less-than-worthy opponents.

Week 13: Lost at New England Patriots, 45-3

Ranked – 5 (ROCKY WEEK!)

            Coach Ryan: Did ya get the license number? 

Mark Sanchez: Of what? 

            Coach Ryan: The truck that run over you on Monday Night.

Week 14: Lost to Miami Dolphins, 10-6

Ranked – 8

The Jets continue to prove time and time again that they are nothing but classless, loud-mouthed braggarts.

Week 15: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 22-17

Ranked – 4

A huge win to make the Jets suddenly relevant again. The division is basically lost, but a wild card spot is closer to a reality.

Week 16: Lost at Chicago Bears, 38-34

Ranked – 11

For a strong defense, the Jets sure allowed a lot of points to a suspect Bears offense. The Jets are in the playoffs, but they have serious issues that need to be corrected if they hope to make a near-magical run like last year.

Week 17: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 38-7

Ranked – 11

A season of talking has generated nothing more than a 6th seed for the Jets. At least they have a winning record and four more wins will make all the talking worthwhile.

Wild Card Game: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 17-16

Ranked – 7

The Jets won in spite of Mark Sanchez's erratic arm and poor decision making. If Belichick can make Peyton Manning look the fool with his defensive schemes, how successful can the Sanchize hope to be in New England?

Divisional Game: Defeated the New England Patriots, 28-21

Ranked – 3

They've talked and talked and talked and have lived up to their own hype. If the Jets can hold onto their swagger for one more week and complete a perfect circuit of the AFC's elite teams by beating Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh on the road, they will have truly earned the right to talk, talk and talk some more over the next two weeks.

Championship Game: Lost at Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-19

Final Rank - 3

Tomorrow, the 2010 Chicago Bears…

Letters of Misfortune - AFC East, Part II

New York Jets



One of the biggest surprise teams in last year's NFL and the beneficiary of the most gift-wrapped entrance ever into the playoffs, the New York Jets are under a lot of pressure now to repeat their performance from a year ago. Despite their tear through the final games of the season, a lot of questions still linger in New Jersey.

Will quarterback Mark Sanchez continue his brilliant, if sometimes erratic, rookie play or succumb to the dreaded sophomore slump? Will the defense, stellar last season behind the ball-hawking abilities of cornerback Darrelle Revis, be able to play at such a high level once again? Will Revis' holdout impact the defense's cohesiveness once September rolls around?

Not only are their questions surrounding last season, but the addition of older veterans, chief among them Ladainian Tomlinson and Laveranues Coles, also add some interesting possibilities for the high-flying Jets.

At least we can be certain of one thing. Rex Ryan will entertain us, whether or not the Jets are able to continue their success from last year. He's trimmed down during the offseason and signed a two-year extension to coach the team. Brimming with confidence, his fiery attitude should be enough to keep the Jets in position to challenge for the division.

By the time the bye week rolls around in week seven, we will know if the Jets were for real last season or the beneficiaries of better teams laying down and giving them a free pass when they shouldn't have.

Miami Dolphins



Wildcat! What happened to the magic last year? In 2008 all anybody could talk about was the emergence of the wildcat offense unveiled to devastating effect against the New England Patriots the third week of the season. Spurred on by the new offense, Miami stole victories with their energetic, deceptive style of play. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams gave the wildcat offense a devastating 1-2 punch that left the rest of the league in its wake. After surprising the rest of the AFC East and stealing the division, the wildcat run came to a sudden, tragic end against Baltimore during the wild card game.

With such great success in 2008, 2009 should have been your year. But you faltered. Injuries hurt you badly. Defenses figured out how to slow the wildcat and your own defense broke down and allowed offenses to run all over them.

To succeed against the likes of New England and New York in 2010 you will have to reassert your dominance in the running game, with or without the wildcat antics. The maturation of Chad Henne and the addition of Brandon Marshall will only help improve your average passing game. But all the offensive firepower will not matter if the defense continues to work like a sieve and allow opposing teams to move up and down the field at will.

With three of your first four games against the likes of New England, Minnesota and the New York Jets, you will have to hit the ground snarling like a rabid wildcat. Anything less and you’ll be swimming in circles the rest of the season, trying to catch up to the rest of the division.



Tomorrow, letters to the AFC West...