Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 8 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 8 went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Vegas Lines formula. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 11 out of 14 games correctly (78.6%).

Three systems - Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula - finshed the week tied for third place and also exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for 71.4% accuracy.

The Pythagoren Theorem formula picked 9 games out of 14 correctly for a 64.3% accuracy, while blindly picking the Home Team to win netted 8 out of 14 picks correctly for the very 'home team wins' accuracy of 57.1%.

All systems favor the Dallas Cowboys to improve to the best overall record in the league tonight when they take on the Washington Redskins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 12
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 10. Cowboys by 10, Over/Under 49.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.388
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Week 8 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With only four weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, every win is crucial. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 5 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 5, the fifth week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Three systems picked games brilliantly this weekend. The Vegas Lines formula picked 12 out of 14 games correctly for an amazing 85.7% accuracy - the best all season. Both the Home Team Wins formula (11/14 78.6%) and the Best Record Wins formula (10/14 71.4%) exceeded the 70% accuracy mark as well.

Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula picked 9 out of 14 games correctly, for a solid 64.3% accuracy.

The Fantasy Projections formula picked 8 out of 14 games accurately for a typical Home Team Wins success rate of 57.1%.

Both Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY and the Pythagorean Theorem formulas struggled again in week 5, only predicting 6 out of 14 game winners correctly for a terrible 42.9% accuracy.

Most systems, except Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Home Team Wins formula, favor the Seattle Seahawks to win on the road in tonight's matchup.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8. Seahawks by 7.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 9. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.633 - 0.419
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-68
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3


Week 5 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With so many close overtime games, there's a good chance at least a couple teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 4 (2014)

The Redskins have renewed life under the direction of Kirk Cousins and the Giants finally won a game. Looks like we're up for a high-scoring NFC East matchup!

All systems favor the Redskins to come away with a victory in tonight's contest.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

New York Giants at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 26
     Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 4. Redskins by 3.5, Over/Under 46
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Washington Redskins by 12. Washington Redskins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.636 - 0.338
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Washington Redskins by 6. Washington Redskins projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-67
     Best Record Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Both teams at 1-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 4 slate...

Season Recap - 2013 Washington Redskins

Washington Redskins



Final Record: 3-13
Finished: 4^th Place in the NFC East
2014 Draft Position: 2nd (Pick Traded to the St. Louis Rams)

Preseason Ranking: 10

Week 1: Lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-27
    Ranked - 23
    RGIII is back! And very, very rusty… The Redskins showed what they could do in the second half against the Eagles, now they just have to get their football legs back under them so they can play a full game.

Week 2: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 38-20
    Ranked - 29
    RGIII and the offense need to figure out how to play in the first half.

Week 3: Lost to the Detroit Lions, 27-20
    Ranked - 28
    Maybe RGIII shouldn't have rushed his return. The Redskins may still be 0-3, but at least they wouldn't be taking as much heat as they are now.

Week 4: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 24-14
    Ranked - 25
    A little bit of positivity for the Redskins… but a win over the Raiders is not exactly worth writing home to your mother about.

Week 5: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 27
    RGIII should be a little more healed after the bye, but a Sunday night game against Dallas will test how rusty he still is.

Week 6: Lost at the Dallas Cowboys, 31-16
    Ranked - 27
    The Redskins had their moments on Sunday night, but they were outclassed by the Cowboys in almost every facet of the game.

Week 7: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 45-41
    Ranked - 25
    Washington wins a wild one over the Bears, but their offense can't score 45 points every week. The defense has to play better, especially since Chicago was without their starting quarterback for most of the game.

Week 8: Lost at the Denver Broncos, 45-21
    Ranked - 25
    The Redskins were all primed for the major upset and then Peyton Manning happened.

Week 9: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 30-24
    Ranked - 23
    A big win in overtime could help propel the Redskins forward in a weak NFC East division.

Week 10: Lost at the Minnesota Vikings, 34-27
    Ranked - 25
    With the NFC East up for grabs, the Redskins can't afford to blow two-touchdown leads against inferior opponents.

Week 11: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 24-16
    Ranked - 27
    The Redskins let an excellent chance to get back in the NFC East race get away from them.

Week 12: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 27-6
    Ranked - 28
    RGIII just isn't the same and the Redskins are doing little to help him gain his confidence back.

Week 13: Lost to the New York Giants, 24-17
    Ranked - 30
    RGIII's sophomore slump continues.

Week 14: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 45-10
    Ranked - 31
    Rumor is that RGIII will be benched and deactivated in favor of Kirk Cousins this week… and the fun in Washington continues.

Week 15: Lost at the Atlanta Falcons, 27-26
    Ranked - 31
    Kirk Cousins showed some promise, but RG III is still the future of this team, whether Mike Shanahan likes it or not.

Week 16: Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 24-23
    Ranked - 31
    The Redskins may possibly have a shot at the #1 draft pick in 2014, if the Texans win and they lose this weekend.

Week 17: Lost at the New York Giants, 20-6

Final Ranking: 31

Tomorrow, the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars...

Season Recap - 2011 Washington Redskins

Final Record: 5-11
Finished: 4^th Place in the NFC East
2012 Draft Position: 6^th

Preseason Ranking: 27

Week 1: Defeated the New York Giants, 28-14
    Ranked - 10
    Grossman put his money where his mouth is and knocked off the first NFC East rival on the schedule. If the Redskins continue to play solid defense and Grossman can avoid the mental errors that forced him out the door in Chicago, Washington might just surprise some people.

Week 2: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 22-21
    Ranked - 7
    The Redskins are 2-0 and in sole possession of first place? Their upcoming Monday Night matchup against Dallas looks scarier than ever. Washington can play defense. If the offense can continue to move the ball consistently from week to week, Rex Grossman may very well be right about their chances to win the division.

Week 3: Lost at the Dallas Cowboys, 18-16
    Ranked - 14
    Note to self: Find out what type of football team you have. You don't have time to feel sorry for yourself. Also, big blitz in more obvious situations. Blitzes without mercy always work at this level. Signed, Mike Shanahan.

Week 4: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 17-10
    Ranked - 12
    A power running game and solid defense have given the Redskins their best start in years.

Week 5: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 11
    The Redskins had about the best bye week they could have hoped for. Next week's game against the Eagles could be their springboard to a division title.

Week 6: Lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 20-13
    Ranked - 14     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Seeing Carolina next on the schedule, Rex Grossman is eager to put his horrible game against the Eagles behind him]
    Rex Grossman: Let us hurry. There is nothing to fear here.
    [Coach Shanahan stops him before he can take the field]
    Coach Shanahan: That's what scares me.
    [Shanahan points to the bench.]
    Coach Shanahan: Stay here.

Week 7: Lost at the Carolina Panthers, 33-20
    Ranked - 18
    The best of Washington's season looks to be behind them.

Week 8: Lost at the Buffalo Bills, 23-0
    Ranked - 22
    The Redskins are primed to finish the season on a 13-game losing streak. I hope to see that happen.

Week 9: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 19-11
    Ranked - 22
    3-13 is still a distinct possibility.

Week 10: Lost at the Miami Dolphins, 20-9
    Ranked - 25
    6 straight losses and the Redskins are still well on their way to finishing 3-13 after starting 3-0.

Week 11: Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 27-24
    Ranked - 26
    The Redskins are still on pace to finish 3-13. The overtime game against Dallas last week could very well have been their last chance to win a game this season.

Week 12: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 23-17
    Ranked - 24
    So much for all of my 3-13 talk, but 4-12 still has a nice ring to it.

Week 13: Lost to the New York Jets, 34-19
    Ranked - 25
    A few suspensions should help the Redskins finish on a 1-12 run after starting 3-0.

Week 14: Lost to the New England Patriots, 34-27
    Ranked - 26
    4-12 remains a distinct possibility, but the Redskins could at least beat the Giants this week, couldn’t they?

Week 15: Defeated the New York Giants, 23-10
    Ranked - 23
    Despite all expectations, the Redskins gained a huge victory over the Giants on Sunday. Even a Cowboys fan like myself can appreciate this win.

Week 16: Lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 33-26
    Ranked - 25
    The Redskins have been rebuilding ever since Daniel Snyder took the reins of the franchise. Why is Coach Shanahan surprised rebuilding in Washington is so difficult?

Week 17: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 34-10


Final Ranking: 26


Tomorrow, the 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars...

Season Recap - 2010 Washington Redskins

Final Record: 6-10

Finished: 4^th Place in the NFC East

2011 Draft Position: 10^th

Preseason Ranking:   29
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

The Redskins. Old friends of the Dallas Cowboys. If my ideal season ends with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing 2-14, guess where they get those two victories? That’s right, over The Hogs or, more recently, The Piglets. As for Washington, well, you’d go 0-16 if I had my way.

Talk about a franchise in near total disarray. You trade with one of your bitter division rivals for their superstar quarterback during the offseason, hire a new coach with a proven Super Bowl track record (at least when Elway was on the field), and the most news about your team during training camp is that one of your disgruntled, underachieving defensive lineman can’t pass a conditioning test. And this was the story of the NFL until a little known quarterback in Mississippi allegedly sent a text message neither confirming nor denying his decision that he may or may not not think about returning to play another season.

For years you have been the doormats of the NFC East and I have loved it. I see little changing this year. Yes, you have a new quarterback, but how much does McNabb have in the tank when the running game in Washington has struggled with injuries of late and the receiving corps is half what he was used to in Philadelphia. Yes, you have a new coach with Super Bowl championships on his resume, but you’ve had that before over the last decade and how’d those seasons turn out for you?

As long as your owner continues to take such a pro-active role, you will continue to struggle. Jerry Jones has created his share of problems in Dallas over the years, but at least the team he has built is talented enough to overcome his meddling. Dan Snyder is a few years and a leisure suit away from becoming the Al Davis of the east coast. And that, my friends, would be a downward slide truly worth celebrating.

Week 1: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 13-7

Ranked – 14

The defense looks good, but the offense is still struggling to find its identity. Defeating Dallas on opening night just might be the catalyst this team needs to no longer have to answer questions about Albert Haynesworth.

Week 2: Lost to Houston Texans, 30-27

Ranked – 23

Washington, you have nothing to regret about Sunday's loss to the Texans except for having yakked up a 17-point lead with just over one quarter left to play. Shanahan has shown these Redskins not to be the pushovers of recent years, but it's still too early to tell if he can return them to their former glory.

Week 3: Lost at St. Louis Rams, 30-16

Ranked – 23

You'd think losing to the Rams would warrant a drop in the rankings, but with so many bad teams playing woeful football, I can't help but let Washington just sit here at #23 and think about what they have done.

Week 4: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 17-12

Ranked – 20

The NFC East is all topsy-turvy now thanks to McNabb's pleasant, though statistically underwhelming, homecoming. The Redskins haven't reclaimed their glory of yesteryear, but they can no longer be counted among the dregs of the league, either.

Week 5: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 16-13

Ranked – 14

The Redskins win ugly again and move into a first-place tie in the NFC East. McNabb looks old, but the defense is quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with.

Week 6: Lost to Indianapolis Colts, 27-24

Ranked – 15

The Redskins lose ground just a bit, but show they will be in every game they play after staying strong against the Indianapolis Colts for four quarters.

Week 7: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 17-14

Ranked – 16

The Redskins are above .500 for the first time in years and have a solid chance to improve to 5-3 when they travel to Detroit this week

Week 8: Lost at Detroit Lions, 37-25

Ranked – 23

It's one thing for a diva wide receiver to call out McNabb for being winded at the end of a game. It's quite another for a head coach to do the same.      

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 19

Teetering on the brink, next week's game against Philadelphia could propel the Redskins two steps forward in the division race or send them into a nasty tailspin the likes of which only Dallas could appreciate. 

Week 10: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 59-28

Ranked – 25

Looks like Dan Snyder should have spent $80 million on defense instead of a beat-down quarterback whose tank is nearly running on empty.

Week 11: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 19-16

Ranked – 16

I have no idea if this team is really good and underachieving or really bad and overachieving, so I'll just rank them here at 16 and let them decide. Shanahan will clear things up for us once we've completed our wind sprints and are back in shape enough to successfully run a two-minute drill without incident.

Week 12: Lost to Minnesota Vikings, 17-13

Ranked – 24

No running game, no passing game and a distinct inability to beat the struggling Vikings at home. Nope. Nothing wrong here.

Week 13: Lost at New York Giants, 31-7

Ranked - 26 (ROCKY WEEK!)

Coach Shanahan: You know what you are?

           

Albert Haynesworth: No, what?

           

Coach Shanahan: A tomato.

           

Albert Haynesworth: A tomato?

Coach Shanahan: Yeah, and I'm running a football team here, not a goddamn soup kitchen!

Week 14: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 17-16

Ranked – 27

The season continues to fall apart for the Redskins. Following the horrible PAT hold at the close of the game against Tampa, Washington cut their punter-holder Hunter Smith. Whoops, the football slipped!

Week 15: Lost at Dallas Cowboys, 33-30

Ranked – 24

Rex Grossman, he's our man? He did help Chicago get to a Super Bowl a few years ago. Maybe the Redskins are on to something.

Week 16: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 20-17

Ranked – 15

Could Rex Grossman actually be the answer?

Week 17: Lost to New York Giants, 17-14

Final Rank - 24

Tomorrow, the 2010 Houston Texans…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part II

Philadelphia Eagles



Ah, Philadelphia. The city of brotherly love and home to a football team I despise more than almost every other team in the NFL. My ideal season would end with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing with a 2-14 record. Despite my dislike of this team, I have a healthy respect for them. For years, the games between Philadelphia and Dallas have been physical, hard-fought clashes that have determined sovereignty in the NFC East. Even when there is no division title on the line, the rivalry between them makes any victory worth celebrating. If Dallas finishes 3-13, at least one of their victories better be against the Eagles.

The Eagles have been impressive over the past decade – pretty much the Atlanta Braves of the NFL. Almost always in the playoffs, constantly in the championship mix, but never quite able to take that final step and win the championship or find consistent success in the postseason.

Following an offseason of change, I expect Philadelphia to falter this year. You can’t trade away a perennial all-pro quarterback, still quite able to be successful on the gridiron, and not stumble a little bit in the adjustment. Philadelphia deserves praise on the trade of McNabb to the Redskins. They showed they had the courage to do what Green Bay was afraid to do – trade a superstar quarterback to a division rival. Now you have two games this season to prove your decision was worthwhile.

The quarterbacks left after the McNabb trade are quite capable of steering the Eagles to a winning season, if they stay true to their abilities and make the most of the offensive talent already in place. Kolb has proven he can play in the NFL. He now needs to prove he can play at a high level for 16+ games a season. Vick, in the final year of his two-year contract, is out to vindicate the Eagle’s decision to bring him on board and needs to be successful this year in order to have a shot in the league next year. He needs to remember how to make the spectacular plays without making costly errors in the effort. And rookie Mike Kafka, well, he’s just lucky to be here and should embrace his opportunity to learn without any pressure.

This season, all eyes will be on Kolb and on his former counterpart, now playing in Washington. The Eagles are a better team than the Redskins. If Philadelphia finishes behind them in the standings, all fingers will point to management’s decision to cut ties with their star quarterback and hand the keys of the franchise over to a capable, if not yet proven, player.

Washington Redskins



The Redskins. Old friends of the Dallas Cowboys. If my ideal season ends with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing 2-14, guess where they get those two victories? That’s right, over The Hogs or, more recently, The Piglets. As for Washington, well, you’d go 0-16 if I had my way.

Talk about a franchise in near total disarray. You trade with one of your bitter division rivals for their superstar quarterback during the offseason, hire a new coach with a proven Super Bowl track record (at least when Elway was on the field), and the most news about your team during training camp is that one of your disgruntled, underachieving defensive lineman can’t pass a conditioning test. And this was the story of the NFL until a little known quarterback in Mississippi allegedly sent a text message neither confirming nor denying his decision that he may or may not not think about returning to play another season.

For years you have been the doormats of the NFC East and I have loved it. I see little changing this year. Yes, you have a new quarterback, but how much does McNabb have in the tank when the running game in Washington has struggled with injuries of late and the receiving corps is half what he was used to in Philadelphia. Yes, you have a new coach with Super Bowl championships on his resume, but you’ve had that before over the last decade and how’d those seasons turn out for you?

As long as your owner continues to take such a pro-active role, you will continue to struggle. Jerry Jones has created his share of problems in Dallas over the years, but at least the team he has built is talented enough to overcome his meddling. Dan Snyder is a few years and a leisure suit away from becoming the Al Davis of the east coast. And that, my friends, would be a downward slide truly worth celebrating.


Tomorrow, letters to the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers...