Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Seattle's Offense vs Denver's Defense

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing hard-nosed solid football all season long, despite stumbling a bit down the stretch to close out the regular season. The NFC front-runner all season, Seattle has lived up to their expectations so far and now face an extremely difficult test in the Super Bowl against a Denver unit that has been just as dominating on the AFC side of the house. The young Russell Wilson leads the offense along with the help of Marshawn Lynch, a punishing back who will move piles and knock out would be tacklers every chance he can get.

Despite the weapons that Seattle has at their disposal - an up-and-coming star quarterback, a power running game, a solid receiving corps and a strong offensive line - the Seahawks offense will be no match for the Broncos if their defense can't slow down Manning and the most explosive offense in NFL history.

The Broncos, for their part, have improved greatly on defense during the second half of the season. While the offense has slowed a bit during the playoffs, the defense has picked up the slack and have helped punch Denver's ticket to the Super Bowl. The Denver D will have to play better than average if they want to slow down Seattle's power running game so they can get Peyton Manning and his charges back on the field. It's always easier to play defense when your offense gives you a 21-point lead to work with.


Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games


            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points


                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Seahwks Offense vs	Denver Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	147	139
Rushing Yards	2477	1755	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.059	0.079	0.069
At their Best (DEF worst)	218 yards	177 yards	198 yards = 13.7 pts = 14 pts
2013 Average	138 yards	98 yards	118 yards = 8.1 pts = 8 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	44 yards	23 yards	34 yards = 2.4 pts = 2 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	239	238
Passing Yards	3532	4520	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.068	0.053	0.061
At their Best (DEF Worst)	323 yards	470 yards	397 yards = 24.2 pts = 24 pts
2013 Average	196 yards	251 yards	224 yards = 13.7 pts = 14 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	89 yards	153 yards	121 yards =   7.4 pts =   7 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	14 pts + 24 pts	38
2013 Average	8 pts + 14 pts	22
At their Worst	2 pts +   7 pts	9

Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Score for the Seattle Seahawks: 23 points

Based on the Denver projections from yesterday versus the Seattle defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Seattle to win a very close shoot-out, 38-35.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect another close game with Denver coming out on top, 24-21.

If a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle takes place, expect the Seahawks to win on the strength of field goals by the score of 9-7.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if Seattle hopes to win, they need their offense to be on fire or their defense to be on fire. If both units play average, expect the Broncos to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after the game.


Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Denver's Offense vs Seattle's Defense

The Denver Broncos are a team that crushes their opponent's spirit by scoring 35+ points a game. Few teams have won as often as the Broncos the past two seasons - or by so much. Peyton Manning, nearly forced to retire two seasons ago because of neck injuries, can pick apart a defense like few other quarterbacks in NFL history. His ability to read a defense and know exactly where to go each and every play will force Seattle's talented secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are among the many versatile weapons Manning has at his disposal.

While the Broncos are known for their passing game, their ability to run the football may be the key to winning the Super Bowl for them. Their offensive line has managed to stay reasonably healthy this season and has kept aggressive defenses from wrecking havoc with the timing of their passing game. This has also helped Denver open up its running game. Knowshon Moreno finished the season with over 1,000 yards rushing and Montee Ball added another 500 yards.

The Seattle Sehawks defense has played lights out football during their run through the regular season and playoffs. Just as versatile on defense as the Broncos are on offense, Seattle's defensive front seven look to completely disrupt the high-powered Denver attack. If Seattle's defense can slow down the Broncos enough to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will be able to give Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch a fighting chance to keep pace with Peyton Manning and company. The Seahawks can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Broncos if their offense can give them any kind of lead during the game.

Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Broncos Offense vs	Seahawks Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	149	67
Rushing Yards	2113	1895	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.071	0.035	0.053
At their Best (DEF worst)	280 yards	205 yards	243 yards = 12.9 pts = 13 pts
2013 Average	117 yards	105 yards	111 yards = 5.9 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	18 yards	13 yards	16 yards = 0.9 pts = 1 pt
Passing Values
Passing Points	423	151
Passing Yards	6074	3200	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.070	0.047	0.059
At their Best (DEF Worst)	445 yards	325 yards	385 yards = 22.7 pts = 23 pts
2013 Average	337 yards	283 yards	310 yards = 18.3 pts = 18 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	132 yards	107 yards	120 yards = 7.1 pts   =   7 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	13 pts + 23 pts	36
2013 Average	6 pts + 18 pts	24
At their Worst	1 pt  +   7 pts	8

Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Score for the Denver Broncos: 23 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Seattle Seahawks offense compares to the Denver Broncos defense. Will the numbers for the Seahawks put them over the 23 points the Broncos are projected to score?

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Championship Round (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVIII! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.


The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    The Seahawks are still a young, although dominant, team. They will need to play far closer to perfect than they have the last few weeks of the season and in the playoffs so far if they hope to even stay close with Denver. The offense will not be able to outgun Peyton Manning, so the defense has to step up if they want to bring the championship trophy home.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    The greatest quarterback of our era at the helm of the greatest offense in the history of the league. The stars have aligned for Peyton Manning to silence all doubters with another Super Bowl win... or give them more ammunition should he fail to deliver once again on the NFL's biggest stage. Denver has the offensive firepower to overcome Seattle's defense and the defensive fortitude to keep Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch in check. If Denver plays like it is capable of, it will be a very long day for the Seahawks and their fans.


Post-Championship Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - No team ranked fell in the rankings this week.


The Biggest Movers - No team ranked moved up in the rankings this week.


Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Seattle Seahawks (2)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Championship Games

Denver Broncos


Check back next week for Creative Misfortune's Super Bowl preview coverage, beginning on Tuesday, January 28th.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Championship Weekend (2013)

And then there were four...

Sunday Game Predictions:

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 6. Broncos by 5.5, Over/Under 56
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 14-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4. Seahawks by 3.5, Over/Under 39
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 14-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3



Check back next week for post championship game power rankings...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Divisional Round (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVIII! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged, The Remarkably Average and The Fortunate Seven. They know what they've done.

The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 4 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
                    The Patriots have proven they can run the ball quite impressively these past few weeks. The question is - can they run all the way to the Super Bowl?

     # 3 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 5)
                    The 49ers dominated their game against the Panthers last week in Carolina. The Seahawks will be a much harder team to get by on the road.

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    Nigh unstoppable at home early in the season, the Seahawks better hope their offense can find a second gear against the 49ers defense.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    Manning vs Brady on the biggest possible AFC stage. The pressure is all on the Broncos in this contest.



Week 22 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - None this week

The Biggest Movers - San Francisco 49ers (+2)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), New England Patriots (4)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After the Divisionals

 Denver Broncos

Check back on Friday for Conference Championship  game predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Divisional Weekend (2013)

As Winter continues to make its presence known across the country, only 8 teams remain. Who will move one step closer to Super Bowl glory?

Saturday Divisional Game Predictions:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 10
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8. Seahawks by 7.5, Over/Under 45.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 13-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 7, Over/Under 51.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3


Sunday Divisional Game Predictions:

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 41.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 10. Broncos by 9.5, Over/Under 54.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 13-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

Check back next Thursday for the post-Divisional Round Power Rankings.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Wild Card (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVIII! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.


The Fortunate Four~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 8 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 11)
                    The Chargers have been playing with their backs against the wall for over a month now and it showed last week in Cincinnati. How will they fare when the face off against Denver for the third time this season? I doubt they can win, but the game should be far closer than most people think it will be.

     # 7 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 9)
                    Got to hand it to the Colts - they did not give up. That makes them a very dangerous opponent.

     # 6 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 8)
                    The Saints played a cold weather game on the road and won. They will have to play absolutely perfect if they hope to walk out of Seattle this week with a win.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 5)
                    The 49ers played an ugly football game last week in Green Bay, but they overcame the elements and were able to move on. Weather should not be an issue in Carolina, but that Panthers D might be.

     # 4 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
                    The Patriots have had two weeks to align their mismatched offensive and defensive pieces. We'll see how well those changes hold up when Andrew Luck comes to town.

     # 3 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 3)
                    The 49ers are beaten up after last week's game and had trouble moving the ball against the Packers. The Panthers should have no problem winning as long as Cam Newton does not turn the ball over carelessly.

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    Seattle looked like a lock for the Super Bowl just a few weeks ago, but some weak games down the stretch have created doubt.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    Twice this season the Denver Broncos have been held to less than 400 yards of offense. Both times came against the San Diego Chargers. Will the Broncos be able to break that trend or will Peyton Manning once again fail in a Divisional round playoff game at home?



Wild Card Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - None this week

The Biggest Movers - San Diego Chargers (+3), New Orleans Saints (+2), Indianapolis Colts (+2)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), Carolina Panthers (3), New England Patriots (4), San Francisco 49ers (5)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 17

 Denver Broncos

Check back on Friday for Divisional Round game predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2013)

Time to get Wild! With three of the four games played outdoors in the cold and snow, these matchups could be a nice preview for the first cold weather Super Bowl to be played in February.

Saturday Game Prediction(s):

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 1. Colts by 1, Over/Under 46
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Both teams at 11-5, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles by 2.5, Over/Under 53.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3

Sunday Game Predictions:

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 7. Bengals by 6.5, Over/Under 46.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers by 2.5, Over/Under 46.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Check back next Thursday for the post-Wild Card Power Rankings.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 17 (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVIII! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.


The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 17)
                    The Packers may be far better than their 8-7-1 record with Aaron Rodgers back at the helm, but they needed a miracle to get by Chicago. San Francisco won't be nearly so easy to handle.

     # 11 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 14)
                    The Chargers made it into the playoffs on a wing and a prayer and a kick just wide right.

     # 10 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 11)
                    Kings of one of the worst divisions in the NFL this year, Chip Kelly now gets a chance to test his offense in the NFL playoffs.

     # 9 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 9)
                    Struggling after the loss of Reggie Wayne, the Colts seem to have things going their way again. A tough, tough Wild Card matchup against the Chiefs will test them.

     # 8 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 8)
                    The Saints have fallen off the NFC pace a bit in recent weeks and now their road to the Super Bowl has to most likely go through Philadelphia, Seattle and Carolina - by no means an easy path. If they can make it to the end, they will have truly earned their place in the championship game.

     # 7 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 6)
                    The Chiefs treated week 17 like a bye week - and still nearly won the game. I just wonder how "vanilla" their game plan was a few weeks ago when they lost to the Colts. Could they have been saving a few tricks up their sleeve for the expected Wild Card matchup with Indianapolis?

     # 6 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 7)
                    Could a Sunday Wild Card game make a difference for the Bengals? Probably, especially with the Chargers coming to town.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 5)
                    The quietest of the NFC's 12-win teams, the 49ers have a chance to defend their NFC title from a year ago.

     # 4 - New England Patriots (previous: 3)
                    Somehow the Patriots ended up being the second-best team in the AFC. With the establishment of their running game, who knows how far they can go.

     # 3 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 4)
                    The Panthers came out of nowhere and took home the division title and a first-round bye. Their defense will determine if they make it to the Super Bowl or not.

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    After nearly letting it slip away, the Seattle Seahawks can rely on the Twelfth Man throughout the playoffs.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    It's a Super Bowl Championship or bust for the Denver Broncos. Anything short of that will be a great disappointment.



Week 17 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - New England Patriots (-1)

The Biggest Movers - Green Bay Packers (+5), San Diego Chargers (+3), Carolina Panthers (+1)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), San Francisco 49ers (5), New Orleans Saints (8), Indianapolis Colts (9)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 17

 Denver Broncos

Check back on Friday for Wild Card Weekend game predictions.