Happy Holidays! Week 16 picks are shown below. I wish you and your families all the best this holiday weekend. Now, let's down some Egg Nog and watch some football!
Thursday Night Result:
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Pittsburgh, 27-3)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 30-10. This will only be a contest if the Steelers are already looking forward to a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-9. The Steelers rebound after a disappointing loss to the Jets, keeping the tie-breaker over the Ravens.
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-10. Pittsburgh by 14.5, Over/Under 37.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 31-6. Pittsburgh 85% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-14. Pittsburgh won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 10-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
All pick systems get the Thursday Night picks correct as the Pittsburgh Steelers dominated the Carolina Panthers in all facets of the game. For their part, Pittsburgh played like solid division champions, while Carolina looked every bit like a team that would be first on the clock come April.
Christmas Day Score Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 28-13. The game means nothing in the standings, but Jason Garrett is still out to show he deserves to be the man leading Dallas next season.
Scottie V's Pick: Dallas, 27-13. Kudos to Jason Garrett for quite possibly the best half-season coaching job ever.
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 28-17. Dallas by 7, Over/Under 45.
Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 21-16. Dallas 60% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 23-20. Dallas won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17. Dallas better at 5-9.
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17
Sunday Game Score Predictions:
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 27-23. The Patriots won't win in a blow-out, but they will clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Scottie V's Pick: New England, 27-23. Much as I'd like to see the inspired Bills get a big win over the Pats, I just don't see it happening.
Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 27-17. New England by 8, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: New England, 28-7. New England 79% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New England, 30-9. New England won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 12-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 23-16. I have a hard time believing Coach Ryan and the rest of the Jets will be focused enough to beat Chicago after all the "foot" talk in New York.
Scottie V's Pick: Chicago, 17-13. Homefield advantage gives the Bears the nod in this defensive battle.
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago by 1, Over/Under 36.5.
Accuscore Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago 55% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 20-13. New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Both teams at 10-4, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Creative Misfortune's Pick: St. Louis, 24-14. The division is there for the Rams to win and with two games against weak division foes, they will only have themselves to blame if they fall short.
Scottie V's Pick: St. Louis, 20-16. Sam Bradford takes some of the pressure off Steven Jackson to make them the best team in the uber-pathetic NFC West.
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis, 23-17. St. Louis by 2, Over/Under 39.5.
Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 20-17. San Francisco 53% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 14-10. San Francisco won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17. St. Louis better at 6-8.
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Detroit, 24-17. Even though the Lions are anything but a great road team, I can't pick the Dolphins to win in South Florida.
Scottie V's Pick: Detroit, 23-17. The Dolphins drop their second game in a row at home to the two most dangerous bottom-feeder teams (last week, Buffalo).
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami, 24-20. Miami by 3.5, Over/Under 41.5.
Accuscore Pick: Miami, 24-10. Miami 70% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Detroit, 13-9. Detroit won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17. Miami better at 7-7.
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-21. Despite Tampa's loss to Detroit last week, they still should finish the season a solid 9-1 against teams with losing records.
Scottie V's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-10. The Seahawks can't win at home let alone the opposite corner of the United States.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay, 27-17. Tampa Bay by 6, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Tampa Bay, 26-10. Tampa Bay 71% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 8-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Jacksonville, 27-20. The Jaguars lost a lot of momentum with last week's loss to the Colts, but they can still take back the division if Indy stumbles.
Scottie V's Pick: Jacksonville, 28-14. The Jags are playing as a team and the Redskins are falling apart.
Vegas Lines Pick: Jacksonville, 28-20. Jacksonville by 7, Over/Under 46.5.
Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 28-9. Jacksonville 77% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Washington, 28-20. Washington won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 8-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore, 28-21. The Ravens will continue to keep the Steelers honest and pressure them to win out in order to keep hold of the division title.
Scottie V's Pick: Baltimore, 24-14. The Ravens take care of business on the road to stay on the Steelers' heels.
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 23-17. Baltimore by 3.5, Over/Under 39.5.
Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 24-13. Baltimore 66% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 16-13. Cleveland won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore better at 10-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Kansas City, 24-17. The Chiefs can't afford to lose at home if they hope to continue their surprising run at the post-season.
Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 24-13. Matt Cassell's gutsy performance last week is followed up by another solid game to stave off the Chargers in the AFC West.
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City, 26-17. Kansas City by 4.5, Over/Under 42.5.
Accuscore Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City 54% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 26-17. Tennessee won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 9-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-24. The Colts have regained their momentum and won't let a trip out west slow them down.
Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 28-20. Dainty Peyton in dirty Oakland? Just doesn't seem right, but Manning gets the upper-hand in this one.
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 26-21. Indianapolis by 3, Over/Under 47.
Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17. Indianapolis 54% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Oakland, 26-17. Oakland won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17. Indianapolis better at 8-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 34-27. The Texans finally face a defense possibly even worse than their own.
Scottie V's Pick: Denver, 24-20. I admit, I have no idea what to expect here... The Texans seem to have thrown in the towel and Tebow gets his second start... When in doubt, Tebow!
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston, 27-23. Houston by 3, Over/Under 48.5.
Accuscore Pick: Houston, 21-17. Houston 56% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Houston, 24-20. Houston won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston, 20-17. Houston better at 5-9.
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver, 20-17
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 23-21. The Packers showed a lot of heart last week in New England... The Giants' season is one bad loss away from completely spinning out of control.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 27-23. A win on the frozen tundra helps the Giants to forget about the Miracle at the New Meadowlands.
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-20. Green Bay by 3, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 21-16. Green Bay 58% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 28-14. New York won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 9-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 35-17. The Bengals won't be able to slow the Chargers down unless Mother Nature lends a helping hand with miserable game conditions.
Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 23-14. The Chargers get it done in the cold and keep pressure on the Chiefs.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 27-17. San Diego by 7.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 28-7. San Diego 79% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 38-10. San Diego won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17. San Diego better at 8-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Philadelphia, 37-10. I can't believe NBC flexed this game instead of the Giants-Packers de facto playoff game.
Scottie V's Pick: Philadelphia, 34-13. Is Brett really done??? Well, either way, you can stick a fork in the Vikings.
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 30-14. Philadelphia by 14.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 31-6. Philadelphia 86% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Minnesota, 21-20. Minnesota won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Philadelphia better at 10-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17
Monday Night Score Prediction:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 24-21. As much as I like the Saints, the Falcons are the best, most well-rounded team, in the NFC.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 28-27. The Saints remind the surging Falcons who the defending Super Bowl Champions are.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 26-23. Atlanta by 2.5, Over/Under 48.5.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans 54% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 24-23. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 12-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17
Come back on Monday to view the prediction roundup and game recaps for all week 16 Sunday games.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Prediction of Creative Misfortune - Week 16 - Thursday Night Game
Holiday Week 16 begins tonight with one team fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs and one team fighting for the #1 overall draft pick in 2011.
Thursday Night Score Prediction:
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 30-10. This will only be a contest if the Steelers are already looking forward to a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-9. The Steelers rebound after a disappointing loss to the Jets, keeping the tie-breaker over the Ravens.
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-10. Pittsburgh by 14.5, Over/Under 37.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 31-6. Pittsburgh 85% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-14. Pittsburgh won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 10-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
Check back tomorrow for the Thursday Night recap and predictions for all remaining week 16 games.
Thursday Night Score Prediction:
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 30-10. This will only be a contest if the Steelers are already looking forward to a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-9. The Steelers rebound after a disappointing loss to the Jets, keeping the tie-breaker over the Ravens.
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-10. Pittsburgh by 14.5, Over/Under 37.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 31-6. Pittsburgh 85% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-14. Pittsburgh won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 10-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
Check back tomorrow for the Thursday Night recap and predictions for all remaining week 16 games.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Week 15
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis. If your team’s ranking remains unchanged for 4 hours or more, please consult with your doctor, as serious side effects may occur.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, winning isn't the only thing, but it is the most important component of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 26)
The Cardinals actually recorded an Offensive Fumble Recovery for a Touchdown when Arizona wide receiver Steve Breaston recovered a fumble in the end zone after running back Tim Hightower fumbled at the 5 yard line. Unfortunately, it came during a game Arizona lost to the hapless Carolina Panthers. All the good karma from the Offensive Fumble Recovery Touchdown is wasted after they only managed to score 12 total points against a Panthers team that typically gives up twice that much.
# 31 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 32)
Good news- The Panthers won't finish the season 1-15 again. Great News- Cincinnati, Buffalo and Detroit all won, so Carolina maintained their hold of the #1 draft pick for next year.
# 30 - Denver Broncos (previous: 31)
TIM TEBOW! Too little, too late to save the season, but maybe he can save the future... unless the new coaching regime decides they don't want to develop a quarterback.
# 29 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 30)
Owens is done for the year and Ochocinco is being limited to allow younger wide receivers a chance to shine.
# 28 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 29)
It's no big deal beating the Dolphins in Miami. Anybody can do that. Beat them in Buffalo. That's how the Bills can make an impression.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 21)
At 5-9 this team can still win their division. Part of me wants to see this actually happen. The 49ers will have to get by the Rams this weekend to have a chance.
# 26 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 24)
What happened to all the promise from just a few weeks ago? The Browns have gone from mediocre to terrible.
# 25 - Houston Texans (previous: 22)
It's fine if you can't play defense, but you better be able to score some points.
# 24 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
Rex Grossman, he's our man? He did help Chicago get to a Super Bowl a few years ago. Maybe the Redskins are on to something.
# 23 - Detroit Lions (previous: 28)
Is there any possible streak of futility the Lions can snap this week when they play the Miami Dolphins?
# 22 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 25)
Joe Webb may be the future... if the Vikings open the 2011 season running the veer option offense.
# 21 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 23)
The Cowboys do late-game collapses with style. Sure, they let their division rivals come storming back, but unlike the Giants, Dallas held on to win the game.
The Remarkably Average ~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 19)
The Seahawks have no business even being within earshot of a playoff spot, but they still somehow control their own destiny despite having only six wins.
# 19 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 17)
Though it is too strong of a word to call the Rams the "best" team in a division that is two games underwater, they are still the team to beat in the West.
# 18 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 16)
The Heat have figured out how to win in South Florida. Why can't the Dolphins?
# 17 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 11)
The Buccaneers ruined their chance at a perfect, 10-0 season against teams with losing records. I guess they'll just have to focus on trying to win a Wild Card spot now.
# 16 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 20)
Two tough road games against Kansas City and Indianapolis remain. The Titans have to win both to even have a chance at the post-season.
# 15 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 14)
One minute, the Jags are on top of the world. The next, they are considered all but dead and buried. With two games left, the division title is still quite possible.
# 14 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 18)
The Colts and Chiefs stand in the way of Oakland's first winning season since they last went to the Super Bowl.
# 13 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 15)
That's how you take back control of the division. Now, can Manning and company hold serve and make it into the playoffs?
The Fortunate Seven ~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 10)
Great start, Matt Flynn. Aside from the final play of the game, quite an impressive effort. With only a Wild Card spot possible, the Packers must defeat the Giants on Sunday if they want to have any chance of making a February trip to Dallas.
# 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 9)
The first team to clinch their division. Congrats. But it's not like beating the Vikings is anything worth bragging about this season.
# 10 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 13)
If the Chargers can't win out against Cincinnati and Denver, they have no business being in the playoffs anyway.
# 9 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 12)
Cassel returns and the Chiefs win. This team, with their quarterback intact, could actually do some damage in the post-season, if they don't stumble over the final two games.
# 8 - New York Giants (previous: 5)
The epic collapse on Sunday will be forgotten if the Giants can win in Green Bay this weekend. If not, watch this team spin out of control, miss the playoffs and be in the market for a new coach soon after the season ends.
# 7 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
Wild Card positioning may suddenly be an issue for the defending champions if the Saints drop a second straight game when they visit the Georgia Dome to face off against the Dirty Birds.
# 6 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 7)
A big win for a team with an aging defense. Two games against the doormats of their division should propel Baltimore into the playoffs, and possibly even a division title.
The Creative Elite ~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 3)
Lose and still clinch a playoff spot? Not the best way to punch a ticket to the post-season, but they'll take it. A first-round bye is theirs to lose.
# 4 - New York Jets (previous: 8)
A huge win to make the Jets suddenly relevant again. The division is basically lost, but a wild card spot is closer to a reality.
# 3 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 6)
I have never been a big fan of the Eagles, but you absolutely have to be impressed by their never give up attitude. Teams have been propelled to Super Bowl championships by far less epic wins in the past.
# 2 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 2)
Get a victory over the Saints and the Falcons won't have to leave Georgia until February.
# 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
A victory over either Buffalo or Miami is all that stands between New England and home-field advantage.
Week 15 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6), San Francisco 49ers (-6) and the Arizona Cardinals (-6)
The Biggest Movers - Detroit Lions (+5), Tennessee Titans (+4), Oakland Raiders (+4) and the New York Jets (+4)
Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLV Favorite ~ After Week 16
New England Patriots
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, winning isn't the only thing, but it is the most important component of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 26)
The Cardinals actually recorded an Offensive Fumble Recovery for a Touchdown when Arizona wide receiver Steve Breaston recovered a fumble in the end zone after running back Tim Hightower fumbled at the 5 yard line. Unfortunately, it came during a game Arizona lost to the hapless Carolina Panthers. All the good karma from the Offensive Fumble Recovery Touchdown is wasted after they only managed to score 12 total points against a Panthers team that typically gives up twice that much.
# 31 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 32)
Good news- The Panthers won't finish the season 1-15 again. Great News- Cincinnati, Buffalo and Detroit all won, so Carolina maintained their hold of the #1 draft pick for next year.
# 30 - Denver Broncos (previous: 31)
TIM TEBOW! Too little, too late to save the season, but maybe he can save the future... unless the new coaching regime decides they don't want to develop a quarterback.
# 29 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 30)
Owens is done for the year and Ochocinco is being limited to allow younger wide receivers a chance to shine.
# 28 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 29)
It's no big deal beating the Dolphins in Miami. Anybody can do that. Beat them in Buffalo. That's how the Bills can make an impression.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 21)
At 5-9 this team can still win their division. Part of me wants to see this actually happen. The 49ers will have to get by the Rams this weekend to have a chance.
# 26 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 24)
What happened to all the promise from just a few weeks ago? The Browns have gone from mediocre to terrible.
# 25 - Houston Texans (previous: 22)
It's fine if you can't play defense, but you better be able to score some points.
# 24 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
Rex Grossman, he's our man? He did help Chicago get to a Super Bowl a few years ago. Maybe the Redskins are on to something.
# 23 - Detroit Lions (previous: 28)
Is there any possible streak of futility the Lions can snap this week when they play the Miami Dolphins?
# 22 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 25)
Joe Webb may be the future... if the Vikings open the 2011 season running the veer option offense.
# 21 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 23)
The Cowboys do late-game collapses with style. Sure, they let their division rivals come storming back, but unlike the Giants, Dallas held on to win the game.
The Remarkably Average ~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 19)
The Seahawks have no business even being within earshot of a playoff spot, but they still somehow control their own destiny despite having only six wins.
# 19 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 17)
Though it is too strong of a word to call the Rams the "best" team in a division that is two games underwater, they are still the team to beat in the West.
# 18 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 16)
The Heat have figured out how to win in South Florida. Why can't the Dolphins?
# 17 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 11)
The Buccaneers ruined their chance at a perfect, 10-0 season against teams with losing records. I guess they'll just have to focus on trying to win a Wild Card spot now.
# 16 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 20)
Two tough road games against Kansas City and Indianapolis remain. The Titans have to win both to even have a chance at the post-season.
# 15 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 14)
One minute, the Jags are on top of the world. The next, they are considered all but dead and buried. With two games left, the division title is still quite possible.
# 14 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 18)
The Colts and Chiefs stand in the way of Oakland's first winning season since they last went to the Super Bowl.
# 13 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 15)
That's how you take back control of the division. Now, can Manning and company hold serve and make it into the playoffs?
The Fortunate Seven ~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 10)
Great start, Matt Flynn. Aside from the final play of the game, quite an impressive effort. With only a Wild Card spot possible, the Packers must defeat the Giants on Sunday if they want to have any chance of making a February trip to Dallas.
# 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 9)
The first team to clinch their division. Congrats. But it's not like beating the Vikings is anything worth bragging about this season.
# 10 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 13)
If the Chargers can't win out against Cincinnati and Denver, they have no business being in the playoffs anyway.
# 9 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 12)
Cassel returns and the Chiefs win. This team, with their quarterback intact, could actually do some damage in the post-season, if they don't stumble over the final two games.
# 8 - New York Giants (previous: 5)
The epic collapse on Sunday will be forgotten if the Giants can win in Green Bay this weekend. If not, watch this team spin out of control, miss the playoffs and be in the market for a new coach soon after the season ends.
# 7 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
Wild Card positioning may suddenly be an issue for the defending champions if the Saints drop a second straight game when they visit the Georgia Dome to face off against the Dirty Birds.
# 6 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 7)
A big win for a team with an aging defense. Two games against the doormats of their division should propel Baltimore into the playoffs, and possibly even a division title.
The Creative Elite ~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 3)
Lose and still clinch a playoff spot? Not the best way to punch a ticket to the post-season, but they'll take it. A first-round bye is theirs to lose.
# 4 - New York Jets (previous: 8)
A huge win to make the Jets suddenly relevant again. The division is basically lost, but a wild card spot is closer to a reality.
# 3 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 6)
I have never been a big fan of the Eagles, but you absolutely have to be impressed by their never give up attitude. Teams have been propelled to Super Bowl championships by far less epic wins in the past.
# 2 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 2)
Get a victory over the Saints and the Falcons won't have to leave Georgia until February.
# 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
A victory over either Buffalo or Miami is all that stands between New England and home-field advantage.
Week 15 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6), San Francisco 49ers (-6) and the Arizona Cardinals (-6)
The Biggest Movers - Detroit Lions (+5), Tennessee Titans (+4), Oakland Raiders (+4) and the New York Jets (+4)
Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLV Favorite ~ After Week 16
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Conference Championship Playoff Results ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
This holiday weekend, the AFC champion San Diego Chargers will square off against the NFC Champion New York Giants to determine the first ever "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." championship. Will these two teams face off in Super Bowl XLV come February 2011? I guess it will depend on if either team can actually make the real NFL playoffs...
CREATIVE MISFORTUNE'S FANTASY BOWL I ~
San Diego Chargers (11-2)
(playing at Cincinnati Bengals)
vs
New York Giants (10-4)
(playing at Green Bay Packers)
Misfortune Bowl I Preview:
The San Diego Chargers come into the championship game an astounding 11-2 (9-2, 2-0) overall on the fantasy season, despite being a mere 8-6 in real life. After clinching the AFC's top seed, they slipped a bit in their effort to gain a solid bye-week advantage, but ultimately did not need the help as they easily knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round without the extra advantage points.
A Thursday Night game against the inept San Francisco 49ers last week helped the Chargers score an impressive 25-point fantasy victory over the New England Patriots, who struggled to gain any fantasy traction against the tough Green Bay defense.
San Diego's championship aspirations, both in the Fantasy Bowl and in real-life, hinge on how well they perform in their upcoming trip to Cincinnati to face a beat-up Bengals team just marking time until the end of the season.
While the Chargers came into the fantasy playoffs as the cream of the AFC crop, the New York Giants had to fight through not only an extra game, but also had to overcome a bye-week advantage, in order to emerge as the champions of the NFC.
A solid, Wild Card victory over the Chicago Bears sent the Giants on their way to a matchup with the #2 seeded Green Bay Packers and their impressive 23-point bye-week advantage. But while New York demolished the Minnesota Vikings to score a solid 77 points, the Lions handed the Packers their worst loss of the season and, even with their great bye-week advantage, Green Bay still fell to the Giants by 20.
Riding high on a wave of emotion, New York stayed strong for three quarters against Philadelphia and scored enough fantasy points to secure a solid 97-66 victory over the NFC's top-seeded New Orleans Saints, who had trouble racking up any significant fantasy points against a Baltimore defense playing for real-life playoff positioning. Despite the great fourth quarter collapse against the Eagles, the Giants remain the only fantasy team standing in the NFC. Will a trip to Green Bay to face a tough defense that derailed New England's Fantasy Bowl hopes also be too much for the Giants to overcome this weekend?
Check back next Tuesday to find out who will be crowned the first ever Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football champion!
Conference Championship Game Results - Week 15
AFC #3 New England Patriots (playing vs Green Bay Packers) at
AFC #1 San Diego Chargers (playing vs San Francisco 49ers)
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 100, New England Patriots 75
New England's Key Performers: Aaron Hernandez (15), Defense (15), Tom Brady (14)
San Diego's Key Performers: Vincent Jackson (29), Philip Rivers (22), Defense (12)
NFC #3 New York Giants (playing vs Philadelphia Eagles) at
NFC #1 New Orleans Saints (playing at Baltimore Ravens)
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 97, New Orleans Saints 66
New York's Key Performers: Eli Manning (25), Mario Manningham (21), Hakeem Nicks (12)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (20), Jimmy Graham (14), Marques Colston (8)
Creative Misfortune Fantasy Playoffs - Seeds and Prior Results
Divisional Game Results - Week 14
AFC #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (playing vs Cincinnati Bengals) at
AFC #1 San Diego Chargers (BWA*: +12) (playing vs Kansas City Chiefs)
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 98, Pittsburgh Steelers 77
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Defense (25), Hines Ward (11), Shaun Suisham (11)
San Diego's Key Performers: Malcolm Floyd (17), Defense (14), Philip Rivers (13), Bye-Week Advantage (12)
AFC #3 New England Patriots (playing at Chicago Bears) at
AFC #2 Indianapolis Colts (BWA*: +21) (playing at Tennessee Titans)
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 116, Indianapolis Colts 110
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (22), Deion Branch (21), Defense (20)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Pierre Garcon (21), Bye-Week Advantage (21), Peyton Manning (20), Adam Vinatieri (12)
NFC #5 Atlanta Falcons (playing at Carolina Panthers) at
NFC #1 New Orleans Saints (BWA*: +23) (playing vs St. Louis Rams)
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 105, Atlanta Falcons 82
Atlanta's Key Performers: Michael Turner (30), Defense (13), Matt Ryan (11)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Bye-Week Advantage (23), Defense (19), Drew Brees (16), Marques Colston (16)
NFC #3 New York Giants (playing at Minnesota Vikings) at
NFC #2 Green Bay Packers (BWA*: +23) (playing at Detroit Lions)
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 77, Green Bay Packers 57
New York's Key Performers: Brandon Jacobs (17), Ahmad Bradshaw (17), Defense (13)
Green Bay's Key Performers: Bye-Week Advantage (23), Defense (10), Matt Flynn (6), Greg Jennings (5)
Wild Card Game Results - Week 13
AFC #6 Baltimore Ravens (playing vs Pittsburgh Steelers) at
AFC #3 New England Patriots (playing vs New York Jets)
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 119, Baltimore Ravens 56
Baltimore's Key Performers: Anquan Boldin (17), Joe Flacco (13), Defense (9)
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (29), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (19), Wes Welker (14)
AFC #5 New York Jets (playing at New England Patriots) at
AFC #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (playing at Baltimore Ravens)
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 59, New York Jets 27
New York's Key Performers: Santonio Holmes (7), Shonne Greene (6), LaDainian Tomlinson (5)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (12), Defense (10), Isaac Redman (9)
NFC #6 Chicago Bears (playing at Detroit Lions) at
NFC #3 New York Giants (playing vs Washington Redskins)
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 87, Chicago Bears 71
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (15), Jay Cutler (12), Chester Taylor (12)
New York's Key Performers: Brandon Jacobs (22), Ahmad Bradshaw (21), Defense (20)
NFC #5 Atlanta Falcons (playing at Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at
NFC #4 San Francisco 49ers (playing at Green Bay Packers)
Fantasy Score: Atlanta Falcons 67, San Francisco 53
Atlanta's Key Performers: Michael Turner (14), Matt Ryan (12), Defense (9)
San Francisco's Key Performers: Vernon Davis (18), Jeff Reed (10), Troy Smith (9)
Top Seeds Playing for Bye-Week Advantage*
AFC #1 - San Diego Chargers (playing vs Oakland Raiders)
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 50
San Diego's Key Performers: Antonio Gates (13), Philip Rivers (13), Malcom Floyd (7)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 50/4 = 12.5 = +12 points
AFC #2 - Indianapolis Colts (playing vs Dallas Cowboys)
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 86
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Reggie Wayne (26), Peyton Manning (14), Javarris James (14)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 86/4 = 21.5 = +21 points
NFC #1 - New Orleans Saints (playing at Cincinnati Bengals)
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 93
New Orleans' Key Performers: Chris Ivory (23), Drew Brees (18), Robert Meachem (16)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 93/4 = 23.25 = +23 points
NFC #2 - Green Bay Packers (playing vs San Francisco 49ers)
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 95
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (26), Greg Jennings (24), Donald Driver (13)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 95/4 = 23.75 = +23 points
*Bye-week Advantage - To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, if Indianapolis scores 80 fantasy points in Week 13 against Dallas, they would receive 20 bonus points (80/4) for their Divisional matchup. Conversely, if they had an off week and scored 22 fantasy points, they would only receive 5 bonus points (22/4, any fractional points rounded down).
Since there are no bye weeks between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
AFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. San Diego Chargers (9-2, 905 pts)
2. Indianapolis Colts (8-3, 876 pts)
3. New England Patriots (8-3, 855 pts)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 791 pts)
Wild Cards ~
5. New York Jets (8-3, 817 pts)
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-3, 786 pts)
NFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. New Orleans Saints (10-1, 814 pts)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3, 859 pts)
3. New York Giants (7-4, 879 pts)
4. San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 651 points)
Wild Cards ~
5. Atlanta Falcons (7-4, 822 pts)
6. Chicago Bears (7-4, 729 pts)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings. After a ton of upsets and epic collapses in week 15, which teams will move into the Creative Elite?
CREATIVE MISFORTUNE'S FANTASY BOWL I ~
(playing at Cincinnati Bengals)
vs
(playing at Green Bay Packers)
Misfortune Bowl I Preview:
The San Diego Chargers come into the championship game an astounding 11-2 (9-2, 2-0) overall on the fantasy season, despite being a mere 8-6 in real life. After clinching the AFC's top seed, they slipped a bit in their effort to gain a solid bye-week advantage, but ultimately did not need the help as they easily knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round without the extra advantage points.
A Thursday Night game against the inept San Francisco 49ers last week helped the Chargers score an impressive 25-point fantasy victory over the New England Patriots, who struggled to gain any fantasy traction against the tough Green Bay defense.
San Diego's championship aspirations, both in the Fantasy Bowl and in real-life, hinge on how well they perform in their upcoming trip to Cincinnati to face a beat-up Bengals team just marking time until the end of the season.
While the Chargers came into the fantasy playoffs as the cream of the AFC crop, the New York Giants had to fight through not only an extra game, but also had to overcome a bye-week advantage, in order to emerge as the champions of the NFC.
A solid, Wild Card victory over the Chicago Bears sent the Giants on their way to a matchup with the #2 seeded Green Bay Packers and their impressive 23-point bye-week advantage. But while New York demolished the Minnesota Vikings to score a solid 77 points, the Lions handed the Packers their worst loss of the season and, even with their great bye-week advantage, Green Bay still fell to the Giants by 20.
Riding high on a wave of emotion, New York stayed strong for three quarters against Philadelphia and scored enough fantasy points to secure a solid 97-66 victory over the NFC's top-seeded New Orleans Saints, who had trouble racking up any significant fantasy points against a Baltimore defense playing for real-life playoff positioning. Despite the great fourth quarter collapse against the Eagles, the Giants remain the only fantasy team standing in the NFC. Will a trip to Green Bay to face a tough defense that derailed New England's Fantasy Bowl hopes also be too much for the Giants to overcome this weekend?
Check back next Tuesday to find out who will be crowned the first ever Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football champion!
Conference Championship Game Results - Week 15
AFC #3 New England Patriots (playing vs Green Bay Packers) at
AFC #1 San Diego Chargers (playing vs San Francisco 49ers)
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 100, New England Patriots 75
New England's Key Performers: Aaron Hernandez (15), Defense (15), Tom Brady (14)
San Diego's Key Performers: Vincent Jackson (29), Philip Rivers (22), Defense (12)
NFC #3 New York Giants (playing vs Philadelphia Eagles) at
NFC #1 New Orleans Saints (playing at Baltimore Ravens)
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 97, New Orleans Saints 66
New York's Key Performers: Eli Manning (25), Mario Manningham (21), Hakeem Nicks (12)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (20), Jimmy Graham (14), Marques Colston (8)
Creative Misfortune Fantasy Playoffs - Seeds and Prior Results
Divisional Game Results - Week 14
AFC #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (playing vs Cincinnati Bengals) at
AFC #1 San Diego Chargers (BWA*: +12) (playing vs Kansas City Chiefs)
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 98, Pittsburgh Steelers 77
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Defense (25), Hines Ward (11), Shaun Suisham (11)
San Diego's Key Performers: Malcolm Floyd (17), Defense (14), Philip Rivers (13), Bye-Week Advantage (12)
AFC #3 New England Patriots (playing at Chicago Bears) at
AFC #2 Indianapolis Colts (BWA*: +21) (playing at Tennessee Titans)
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 116, Indianapolis Colts 110
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (22), Deion Branch (21), Defense (20)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Pierre Garcon (21), Bye-Week Advantage (21), Peyton Manning (20), Adam Vinatieri (12)
NFC #5 Atlanta Falcons (playing at Carolina Panthers) at
NFC #1 New Orleans Saints (BWA*: +23) (playing vs St. Louis Rams)
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 105, Atlanta Falcons 82
Atlanta's Key Performers: Michael Turner (30), Defense (13), Matt Ryan (11)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Bye-Week Advantage (23), Defense (19), Drew Brees (16), Marques Colston (16)
NFC #3 New York Giants (playing at Minnesota Vikings) at
NFC #2 Green Bay Packers (BWA*: +23) (playing at Detroit Lions)
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 77, Green Bay Packers 57
New York's Key Performers: Brandon Jacobs (17), Ahmad Bradshaw (17), Defense (13)
Green Bay's Key Performers: Bye-Week Advantage (23), Defense (10), Matt Flynn (6), Greg Jennings (5)
Wild Card Game Results - Week 13
AFC #6 Baltimore Ravens (playing vs Pittsburgh Steelers) at
AFC #3 New England Patriots (playing vs New York Jets)
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 119, Baltimore Ravens 56
Baltimore's Key Performers: Anquan Boldin (17), Joe Flacco (13), Defense (9)
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (29), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (19), Wes Welker (14)
AFC #5 New York Jets (playing at New England Patriots) at
AFC #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (playing at Baltimore Ravens)
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 59, New York Jets 27
New York's Key Performers: Santonio Holmes (7), Shonne Greene (6), LaDainian Tomlinson (5)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (12), Defense (10), Isaac Redman (9)
NFC #6 Chicago Bears (playing at Detroit Lions) at
NFC #3 New York Giants (playing vs Washington Redskins)
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 87, Chicago Bears 71
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (15), Jay Cutler (12), Chester Taylor (12)
New York's Key Performers: Brandon Jacobs (22), Ahmad Bradshaw (21), Defense (20)
NFC #5 Atlanta Falcons (playing at Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at
NFC #4 San Francisco 49ers (playing at Green Bay Packers)
Fantasy Score: Atlanta Falcons 67, San Francisco 53
Atlanta's Key Performers: Michael Turner (14), Matt Ryan (12), Defense (9)
San Francisco's Key Performers: Vernon Davis (18), Jeff Reed (10), Troy Smith (9)
Top Seeds Playing for Bye-Week Advantage*
AFC #1 - San Diego Chargers (playing vs Oakland Raiders)
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 50
San Diego's Key Performers: Antonio Gates (13), Philip Rivers (13), Malcom Floyd (7)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 50/4 = 12.5 = +12 points
AFC #2 - Indianapolis Colts (playing vs Dallas Cowboys)
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 86
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Reggie Wayne (26), Peyton Manning (14), Javarris James (14)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 86/4 = 21.5 = +21 points
NFC #1 - New Orleans Saints (playing at Cincinnati Bengals)
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 93
New Orleans' Key Performers: Chris Ivory (23), Drew Brees (18), Robert Meachem (16)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 93/4 = 23.25 = +23 points
NFC #2 - Green Bay Packers (playing vs San Francisco 49ers)
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 95
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (26), Greg Jennings (24), Donald Driver (13)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 95/4 = 23.75 = +23 points
*Bye-week Advantage - To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, if Indianapolis scores 80 fantasy points in Week 13 against Dallas, they would receive 20 bonus points (80/4) for their Divisional matchup. Conversely, if they had an off week and scored 22 fantasy points, they would only receive 5 bonus points (22/4, any fractional points rounded down).
Since there are no bye weeks between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
AFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. San Diego Chargers (9-2, 905 pts)
2. Indianapolis Colts (8-3, 876 pts)
3. New England Patriots (8-3, 855 pts)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 791 pts)
Wild Cards ~
5. New York Jets (8-3, 817 pts)
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-3, 786 pts)
NFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. New Orleans Saints (10-1, 814 pts)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3, 859 pts)
3. New York Giants (7-4, 879 pts)
4. San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 651 points)
Wild Cards ~
5. Atlanta Falcons (7-4, 822 pts)
6. Chicago Bears (7-4, 729 pts)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings. After a ton of upsets and epic collapses in week 15, which teams will move into the Creative Elite?
Week 15 - Roundup of Creative Misfortune - Monday Game
Monday Night Result:
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Actual ~ Chicago, 40-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 6-2. The Bears proved last week they are not a cold-weather team. The Vikings have not been a cold-weather team in almost 30 years. TCF Bank, despite being an outdoor stadium was not designed for football to be played on its hallowed grass this late into December. A sloppy, miserable game sounds about right, with Chicago winning by the score of 6-2 after scoring a touchdown and botching the extra point. Minnesota gets the safety after Chicago snaps the ball through the end zone late in the fourth quarter on purpose, deciding not to risk a punt. Also, if you are available to start at quarterback for the Vikes, please contact Leslie Frazier at the Vikings practice facility, Winter Park, in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Scottie V's Pick: Chicago, 23-13. The crumbling of their stadium is the perfect picture of the Vikings' season... Playing in a college stadium in Week 15 seems appropriate.
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 23-10. Chicago by 8, Over/Under 33.5.
Accuscore Pick: Minnesota, 17-16. Minnesota 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Chicago, 17-14. Chicago won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago better at 9-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota, 20-17
In a surprise move, Brett Favre decides to play on the frozen field at TCF Bank stadium in Minneapolis. At first, the old gunslinger showed a lot of promise, but then the Bears defense started to swarm over their rival and a hard sack sent Favre to the sidelines with a head injury. In came the raw rookie, Joe Webb, who showed flashes of athletic brilliance, but also flashes of total confusion and hesitation. Aside from the Vikings initial drive, Chicago dominated the cold-weather game and clinched the NFC North title in dramatic fashion. Among the highlights, Devin Hester, star kick return specialist for the Chicago Bears, returned his NFL-record 14th kick for a touchdown on a short punt early in the third quarter. The frozen fans booed Vikings punter Chris Kluwe the entire first half when he sent each of his punts sailing out of bounds. They weren't exactly cheering after a punt finally ended up in Hester's hands and he made the Vikings pay, with, quite possibly, the easiest return touchdown of his career.
Week 15 Final Prediction Scoreboard...
Accuscore: 11-5 (season overall: 143-81)
Vegas Picks: 11-5 (season overall: 148-76) *2 Perfect Picks
Scottie V's: 10-6 (season overall: 140-84)
Home Team Wins Pick: 9-7 (season overall: 124-100) *3 Perfect Picks
What If Sports: 10-6 (season overall: 119-105) *1 Perfect Pick
Best Record Wins Pick: 7-9 (season overall: 133-91) *3 Perfect Picks
Creative Misfortune: 7-9 (season overall: 130-94) *1 Perfect Pick
Check back later today for the Conference Championship playoff results for Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season. Which final two teams will play in Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl I over Christmas weekend?
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Actual ~ Chicago, 40-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 6-2. The Bears proved last week they are not a cold-weather team. The Vikings have not been a cold-weather team in almost 30 years. TCF Bank, despite being an outdoor stadium was not designed for football to be played on its hallowed grass this late into December. A sloppy, miserable game sounds about right, with Chicago winning by the score of 6-2 after scoring a touchdown and botching the extra point. Minnesota gets the safety after Chicago snaps the ball through the end zone late in the fourth quarter on purpose, deciding not to risk a punt. Also, if you are available to start at quarterback for the Vikes, please contact Leslie Frazier at the Vikings practice facility, Winter Park, in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
Scottie V's Pick: Chicago, 23-13. The crumbling of their stadium is the perfect picture of the Vikings' season... Playing in a college stadium in Week 15 seems appropriate.
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago, 23-10. Chicago by 8, Over/Under 33.5.
Accuscore Pick: Minnesota, 17-16. Minnesota 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Chicago, 17-14. Chicago won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago better at 9-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota, 20-17
In a surprise move, Brett Favre decides to play on the frozen field at TCF Bank stadium in Minneapolis. At first, the old gunslinger showed a lot of promise, but then the Bears defense started to swarm over their rival and a hard sack sent Favre to the sidelines with a head injury. In came the raw rookie, Joe Webb, who showed flashes of athletic brilliance, but also flashes of total confusion and hesitation. Aside from the Vikings initial drive, Chicago dominated the cold-weather game and clinched the NFC North title in dramatic fashion. Among the highlights, Devin Hester, star kick return specialist for the Chicago Bears, returned his NFL-record 14th kick for a touchdown on a short punt early in the third quarter. The frozen fans booed Vikings punter Chris Kluwe the entire first half when he sent each of his punts sailing out of bounds. They weren't exactly cheering after a punt finally ended up in Hester's hands and he made the Vikings pay, with, quite possibly, the easiest return touchdown of his career.
Week 15 Final Prediction Scoreboard...
Accuscore: 11-5 (season overall: 143-81)
Vegas Picks: 11-5 (season overall: 148-76) *2 Perfect Picks
Scottie V's: 10-6 (season overall: 140-84)
Home Team Wins Pick: 9-7 (season overall: 124-100) *3 Perfect Picks
What If Sports: 10-6 (season overall: 119-105) *1 Perfect Pick
Best Record Wins Pick: 7-9 (season overall: 133-91) *3 Perfect Picks
Creative Misfortune: 7-9 (season overall: 130-94) *1 Perfect Pick
Check back later today for the Conference Championship playoff results for Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season. Which final two teams will play in Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl I over Christmas weekend?
Monday, December 20, 2010
Week 15 - Roundup of Creative Misfortune - Sunday Games
The Accuscore and Vegas Picks systems led the way in week 15, expanding their lead on all other systems after another solid weekend of picks, despite the tremendous number of upsets that derailed some of the other systems. Not that I'm going to mention any names, but their initials are Creative Misfortune. Man, I hate being sick...
Thursday Night Result:
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (Actual ~ San Diego, 34-7)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 31-17. Both teams are playing for a chance to take their division crown, but the Chargers are a far superior team.
Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 28-13. The Super-Chargers are red hot and they'll win the No-Cal vs. So-Cal matchup.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 28-17. San Diego by 9, Over/Under 44.5.
Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 31-7. San Diego 83% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 21-12. San Diego won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17. San Diego better at 7-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17
The Chargers won easily as expected and kept their playoff hopes alive.
Sunday Game Results:
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Actual ~ Cincinnati, 19-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cleveland, 27-24. Neither team is very good, so I won't have to watch this on TV. Whoo. Dodged a bullet there.
Scottie V's Pick: Cleveland, 23-13. Cincy is at the height of their dysfunction and the Browns play some cohesive ball.
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati, 23-17. Cincinnati by 2, Over/Under 40.
Accuscore Pick: Cleveland, 20-17. Cleveland 55% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 21-20. Cleveland won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17. Cleveland better at 5-8.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17
The Bengals finally win a game, barely, and gain some measure of respect against the weakest of their division rivals. Cleveland continues to stumble and once again lost a game they should have won.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (Actual ~ Dallas, 33-30)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 28-20. Their seasons may be over, but Dallas can still inspire their fans for next year with a nice victory over their hated division rival.
Scottie V's Pick: Dallas, 27-14. Let's hear it for Jason Garrett! He's turned a hapless Kitna-led Cowboys squad to respectability... Meanwhile, in Washington...
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 27-20. Dallas by 6, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 23-14. Dallas 63% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 24-23. Dallas won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17. Washington better at 5-8.
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17
Rex Grossman tossed four impressive touchdowns and led quite the rally as Dallas nearly had a Giant-esque collapse of their own against their hated division rival. Both teams, safely out of the playoff race, continue to jockey for draft positioning. The Cowboys won the game in the end, but that's about all that is worth saying about their victory.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Tennessee, 31-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 34-27. Both teams will likely be eliminated this week, regardless of the outcome of this game, but Houston is still playing with a lot of fire. Tennessee is mailing it in just waiting for Coach Fisher to resign or be fired at the end of the season.
Scottie V's Pick: Houston, 24-10. The Texans will take out their pent-up aggression over a lost season on this suddenly fractured Titan team.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 26-23. Tennessee by 1.5, Over/Under 47.5.
Accuscore Pick: Tennessee, 17-16. Tennessee 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Houston, 24-23. Houston won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Both teams at 5-8, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17
Arian Foster had a terrible game and ruined the playoff hopes of many a fantasy football franchise as the Titans suddenly look like a dominate team and put the final nail in Houston's playoff coffin. The victory keeps Tennessee's faint playoff hopes alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 34-24)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 24-21. The Jaguars always seem to play Indianapolis hard, but Manning and crew aren't yet ready to relinquish their hold of the AFC South title.
Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-24. Jacksonville will provide all Peyton can handle, but I just can't believe the Colts are ready to ride off into the sunset.
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 28-21. Indianapolis by 5, Over/Under 48.5.
Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 23-14. Indianapolis 62% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 26-17. Indianapolis won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 8-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17
The Colts do not go quietly into the night! Once again they wrest control of the division away from the Jaguars and now control their own playoff destiny with two games to play. Manning plays solid against a team that has given him fits in the past, but the real story of the game is Austin Collie. After scoring two touchdowns early and gaining nearly 100 yards receiving, another hard hit sent him to the bench with his third concussion of the season. Even if he comes back this year, how many snaps will he be good for before another hit sends him down for a fourth time?
Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ Kansas City, 27-13)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: St. Louis, 24-14. With Cassel still questionable for Sunday's game, the Rams will climb back to .500 and maintain their lead in the NFC West.
Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 24-21. Will Cassell play? If so, he surely won't be 100%... Even still, I think the Chiefs have enough going for them to get a much-needed victory in St. Louis.
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis, 23-20. St. Louis by 2, Over/Under 42.5.
Accuscore Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City 55% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Kansas City, 27-13. Kansas City won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 8-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17
What If Sports - the oft-maligned pick system that has yet to have a solid week of picking winners - finally nets its first ever perfect pick with the outcome of this contest. Kansas City, on the strength of a weakened Matt Cassel, dominates the "best team" in the NFC West for an easy victory to stay one game ahead of the Chargers with two yet to play. Just when you think the Rams might be on to something, they go out and play a terrible game like this. Yet, even at 6-8, they still hold the inside track to their division title. How sad is that?
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Actual ~ Buffalo, 17-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Miami, 24-17. In a game featuring the also-rans of the AFC East, Miami will gain a bit of traction in their difficult quest for a Wild Card spot.
Scottie V's Pick: Buffalo, 23-20. Suddenly I find myself rooting for the Bills... They're a feisty bunch... And they will take their talents out on South Beach.
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami, 23-17. Miami by 5.5, Over/Under 40.
Accuscore Pick: Miami, 27-10. Miami 74% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Miami, 21-16. Miami won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17. Miami better at 7-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17
Buffalo ends Miami's season by getting a solid road win in South Florida over the floundering Dolphins. Miami just cannot win a game at home. Why? Who knows, but it doesn't matter any more, because their season is over.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Actual ~ Detroit, 23-20 (OT))
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tampa Bay, 17-13. The Buccaneers beat teams with losing records, but the game will be close.
Scottie V's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-16. Much as I'd like to pick Detroit (a likeable bunch a-la the Bills), but I think Tampa will play inspired ball at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay, 26-17. Tampa Bay by 6, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Tampa Bay, 27-9. Tampa Bay 75% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tampa Bay, 23-17. Tampa Bay won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 8-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17
So much for the Buccaneers finishing the season a perfect 10-0 against teams without winning records. Detroit, fresh off their surprising defeat of the Green Bay Packers last week, where they ended their 19-game losing streak to division opponents, snapped another variation of their famous losing streaks by ending their road-skid at 26 games. Could the Lions finally be turning a corner?
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Actual ~ Carolina, 19-12)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Arizona, 34-24. Arizona figured a few things out last week and Carolina just added a few more players to injured reserve. Plus, in the NFC West, Arizona still has something to play for.
Scottie V's Pick: Carolina, 20-14. Wow. This is about as hideous a matchup as you could get. Think Carolina may play just a little less awful at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina, 21-17. Carolina by 2.5, Over/Under 38.
Accuscore Pick: Carolina, 21-16. Carolina 59% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Carolina, 24-13. Carolina won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17. Arizona better at 4-9.
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina, 20-17
19-12? Sounds about right for these bumbling franchises. Arizona, with the loss, is finally eliminated from playoff contention. Even in the NFC West, 6-10 just won't be good enough for them to move on.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (Actual ~ Baltimore, 30-24)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 21-17. The Saints learned something very important from Baltimore's collapse on Monday night - the Ravens defense ain't what it used to be.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 24-16. The Saints play their grittiest game of the year getting a big win in Baltimore.
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 23-21. Baltimore by 1, Over/Under 43.5.
Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore 53% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Baltimore, 17-10. Baltimore won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 10-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17
Both the Ravens and the Saints have solid playoff positioning, but whereas Baltimore moved closer to their division title with the win, New Orleans fell further behind the Falcons in the NFC South. The Saints now need to win out and hope the Falcons lose out, otherwise they will be looking to take a trip to either St. Louis or Seattle for a Wild Card date with one of the worst division champions in NFL history.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 38-31)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 37-31. The defensive line of the Giants will contain Vick just enough to turn him into a pocket passer. Without the big play, Philadelphia will not be able to win.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 27-20. This should be a fun game... I'll give the Giants the nod at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 26-21. New York by 3, Over/Under 46.5.
Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 17-16. Philadelphia 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 21-10. New York won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. Both teams at 9-4, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17
The debacle in New York. The Giants collapsed in epic fashion as the high-flying Eagles continue to amaze people with their ability to make something out of nothing. As great as the comeback was for the Eagles, and as devastating as it potentially could be for the Giants, can we all please agree on one thing - Giants Punter Matt Dodge was NOT the reason the Giants lost this game. Yes, his line-drive punt led to the deciding points in the final seconds of the game, but there were ten other Giant defenders on the field who failed to keep their lanes.
Not only that, but last time I checked... Matt Dodge wasn't responsible for covering Eagles Tight End Brent Celek on that 65-yard touchdown... Matt Dodge wasn't one of the Giants special team blockers that turned early and allowed the Eagles an easy onside-kick recovery... Matt Dodge didn't lose contain on Michael Vick's impressive 35-yard scramble that led to another 4-yard touchdown run for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year... Matt Dodge wasn't playing defense when the Eagles marched 88 yards down the field to tie the game at 31-31 in just under two minutes...
Had the Giants run the ball three straight times and taken all the time off the clock when they got the ball back with just over a minute to play, instead of having Manning go Pass Incomplete - Pass Incomplete - Sack - TIMEOUT - the Giants wouldn't have needed to punt and quite possibly would have won 34-31 in overtime. All the Giants - from Coughlin on down - are to blame for the embarrassing collapse on Sunday - not the punter, who had but one small part to play in the fiasco.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (Actual ~ Atlanta, 34-18)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 27-10. The Falcons cannot afford to have any letdowns before the Saints come to town next week.
Scottie V's Pick: Atlanta, 28-17. It's Week 15 and the Falcons are still gettin' it done... Maybe I need to buy in... Don't think the Seahawks are the team to halt this train.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 28-20. Atlanta by 7, Over/Under 45.5.
Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 24-14. Atlanta 64% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Atlanta, 27-26. Atlanta won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 11-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17
The Falcons are one win away from clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Seahawks are, quite possibly, one win away from becoming the worst division champion in NFL history.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ New York, 22-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-7. Pittsburgh will level some good old smash-mouth football on the Jets and shut them up for good.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 28-13. I can't wait for this game! Better hope that no Jet's coach tries to trip Troy Polamalu... He'll come at them like a spider-monkey!
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-14. Pittsburgh by 6, Over/Under 36.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 28-9. Pittsburgh 77% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-14. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 10-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
Just when you think the Jets are dead and buried, they go and pull off a dramatic upset like this and make you re-evaluate everything you hold near and dear. New York soldifies their Wild Card status with the victory, while Pittsburgh, surprisingly enough, clinches a playoff spot with their loss. The Steelers should be able to hold on and win the division, but no matter where they fall, they have punched a ticket to the post-season.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (Actual ~ Oakland, 39-23)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Oakland, 35-14. The Broncos are rapidly becoming an embarrassment and the Raiders will have no problem humiliating them further.
Scottie V's Pick: Oakland, 27-17. I can't believe that Oakland is respectable and I keep picking them to win... Has Hell frozen over? Has Al Davis left the 1980's??
Vegas Lines Pick: Oakland, 27-17. Oakland by 7, Over/Under 43.5.
Accuscore Pick: Oakland, 24-14. Oakland 64% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Oakland, 23-13. Oakland won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17. Oakland better at 6-7.
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17
TIM TEBOW! Granted, the Raiders won easily going away by 16 points, but... TIM TEBOW!!!!!
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (Actual ~ New England, 31-27)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 31-17. Whether the weather is good or bad, Matt Flynn will not be able to keep pace with Brady and the explosive Patriots offense in New England.
Scottie V's Pick: New England, 34-20. This game might be a lot more interesting with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but let's be honest, even that might not stop the machine that is the New England Patriots.
Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 30-13. New England by 13.5, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: New England, 27-10. New England 73% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New England, 20-17. New England won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 11-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: New England, 20-17
Stat line of the game- Matt Flynn (251 yards, 3 TDs) vs Tom Brady (163 yards, 2 TDs). The Packers surprised everybody by nearly knocking off the Patriots at home, but Flynn's solid performance is undermined by confusion on the final 4th-and-1 play of the game. The Patriots clinched a playoff spot with the win and are one win away from clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. And how about that Dan Connolly? Talk about rumblin', bumblin', stumblin' for the greatest kickoff return by an offensive lineman in NFL history.
Come back tomorrow to laugh at Creative Misfortune's terrible prognostication for week 15 when the final prediction standings following the Monday Night Game are posted and to view the Conference Championship playoff results for Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season.
Thursday Night Result:
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (Actual ~ San Diego, 34-7)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 31-17. Both teams are playing for a chance to take their division crown, but the Chargers are a far superior team.
Scottie V's Pick: San Diego, 28-13. The Super-Chargers are red hot and they'll win the No-Cal vs. So-Cal matchup.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 28-17. San Diego by 9, Over/Under 44.5.
Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 31-7. San Diego 83% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 21-12. San Diego won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17. San Diego better at 7-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17
The Chargers won easily as expected and kept their playoff hopes alive.
Sunday Game Results:
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Actual ~ Cincinnati, 19-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cleveland, 27-24. Neither team is very good, so I won't have to watch this on TV. Whoo. Dodged a bullet there.
Scottie V's Pick: Cleveland, 23-13. Cincy is at the height of their dysfunction and the Browns play some cohesive ball.
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati, 23-17. Cincinnati by 2, Over/Under 40.
Accuscore Pick: Cleveland, 20-17. Cleveland 55% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 21-20. Cleveland won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17. Cleveland better at 5-8.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17
The Bengals finally win a game, barely, and gain some measure of respect against the weakest of their division rivals. Cleveland continues to stumble and once again lost a game they should have won.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (Actual ~ Dallas, 33-30)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 28-20. Their seasons may be over, but Dallas can still inspire their fans for next year with a nice victory over their hated division rival.
Scottie V's Pick: Dallas, 27-14. Let's hear it for Jason Garrett! He's turned a hapless Kitna-led Cowboys squad to respectability... Meanwhile, in Washington...
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 27-20. Dallas by 6, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 23-14. Dallas 63% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Dallas, 24-23. Dallas won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17. Washington better at 5-8.
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17
Rex Grossman tossed four impressive touchdowns and led quite the rally as Dallas nearly had a Giant-esque collapse of their own against their hated division rival. Both teams, safely out of the playoff race, continue to jockey for draft positioning. The Cowboys won the game in the end, but that's about all that is worth saying about their victory.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Tennessee, 31-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston, 34-27. Both teams will likely be eliminated this week, regardless of the outcome of this game, but Houston is still playing with a lot of fire. Tennessee is mailing it in just waiting for Coach Fisher to resign or be fired at the end of the season.
Scottie V's Pick: Houston, 24-10. The Texans will take out their pent-up aggression over a lost season on this suddenly fractured Titan team.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 26-23. Tennessee by 1.5, Over/Under 47.5.
Accuscore Pick: Tennessee, 17-16. Tennessee 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Houston, 24-23. Houston won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Both teams at 5-8, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17
Arian Foster had a terrible game and ruined the playoff hopes of many a fantasy football franchise as the Titans suddenly look like a dominate team and put the final nail in Houston's playoff coffin. The victory keeps Tennessee's faint playoff hopes alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 34-24)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 24-21. The Jaguars always seem to play Indianapolis hard, but Manning and crew aren't yet ready to relinquish their hold of the AFC South title.
Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-24. Jacksonville will provide all Peyton can handle, but I just can't believe the Colts are ready to ride off into the sunset.
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 28-21. Indianapolis by 5, Over/Under 48.5.
Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 23-14. Indianapolis 62% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 26-17. Indianapolis won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 8-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17
The Colts do not go quietly into the night! Once again they wrest control of the division away from the Jaguars and now control their own playoff destiny with two games to play. Manning plays solid against a team that has given him fits in the past, but the real story of the game is Austin Collie. After scoring two touchdowns early and gaining nearly 100 yards receiving, another hard hit sent him to the bench with his third concussion of the season. Even if he comes back this year, how many snaps will he be good for before another hit sends him down for a fourth time?
Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ Kansas City, 27-13)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: St. Louis, 24-14. With Cassel still questionable for Sunday's game, the Rams will climb back to .500 and maintain their lead in the NFC West.
Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 24-21. Will Cassell play? If so, he surely won't be 100%... Even still, I think the Chiefs have enough going for them to get a much-needed victory in St. Louis.
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis, 23-20. St. Louis by 2, Over/Under 42.5.
Accuscore Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City 55% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Kansas City, 27-13. Kansas City won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 8-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17
What If Sports - the oft-maligned pick system that has yet to have a solid week of picking winners - finally nets its first ever perfect pick with the outcome of this contest. Kansas City, on the strength of a weakened Matt Cassel, dominates the "best team" in the NFC West for an easy victory to stay one game ahead of the Chargers with two yet to play. Just when you think the Rams might be on to something, they go out and play a terrible game like this. Yet, even at 6-8, they still hold the inside track to their division title. How sad is that?
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Actual ~ Buffalo, 17-14)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Miami, 24-17. In a game featuring the also-rans of the AFC East, Miami will gain a bit of traction in their difficult quest for a Wild Card spot.
Scottie V's Pick: Buffalo, 23-20. Suddenly I find myself rooting for the Bills... They're a feisty bunch... And they will take their talents out on South Beach.
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami, 23-17. Miami by 5.5, Over/Under 40.
Accuscore Pick: Miami, 27-10. Miami 74% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Miami, 21-16. Miami won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17. Miami better at 7-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17
Buffalo ends Miami's season by getting a solid road win in South Florida over the floundering Dolphins. Miami just cannot win a game at home. Why? Who knows, but it doesn't matter any more, because their season is over.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Actual ~ Detroit, 23-20 (OT))
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tampa Bay, 17-13. The Buccaneers beat teams with losing records, but the game will be close.
Scottie V's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-16. Much as I'd like to pick Detroit (a likeable bunch a-la the Bills), but I think Tampa will play inspired ball at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay, 26-17. Tampa Bay by 6, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Tampa Bay, 27-9. Tampa Bay 75% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tampa Bay, 23-17. Tampa Bay won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 8-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17
So much for the Buccaneers finishing the season a perfect 10-0 against teams without winning records. Detroit, fresh off their surprising defeat of the Green Bay Packers last week, where they ended their 19-game losing streak to division opponents, snapped another variation of their famous losing streaks by ending their road-skid at 26 games. Could the Lions finally be turning a corner?
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Actual ~ Carolina, 19-12)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Arizona, 34-24. Arizona figured a few things out last week and Carolina just added a few more players to injured reserve. Plus, in the NFC West, Arizona still has something to play for.
Scottie V's Pick: Carolina, 20-14. Wow. This is about as hideous a matchup as you could get. Think Carolina may play just a little less awful at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina, 21-17. Carolina by 2.5, Over/Under 38.
Accuscore Pick: Carolina, 21-16. Carolina 59% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Carolina, 24-13. Carolina won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17. Arizona better at 4-9.
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina, 20-17
19-12? Sounds about right for these bumbling franchises. Arizona, with the loss, is finally eliminated from playoff contention. Even in the NFC West, 6-10 just won't be good enough for them to move on.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (Actual ~ Baltimore, 30-24)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 21-17. The Saints learned something very important from Baltimore's collapse on Monday night - the Ravens defense ain't what it used to be.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 24-16. The Saints play their grittiest game of the year getting a big win in Baltimore.
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 23-21. Baltimore by 1, Over/Under 43.5.
Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore 53% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Baltimore, 17-10. Baltimore won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 10-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17
Both the Ravens and the Saints have solid playoff positioning, but whereas Baltimore moved closer to their division title with the win, New Orleans fell further behind the Falcons in the NFC South. The Saints now need to win out and hope the Falcons lose out, otherwise they will be looking to take a trip to either St. Louis or Seattle for a Wild Card date with one of the worst division champions in NFL history.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 38-31)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 37-31. The defensive line of the Giants will contain Vick just enough to turn him into a pocket passer. Without the big play, Philadelphia will not be able to win.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 27-20. This should be a fun game... I'll give the Giants the nod at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 26-21. New York by 3, Over/Under 46.5.
Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 17-16. Philadelphia 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 21-10. New York won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. Both teams at 9-4, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17
The debacle in New York. The Giants collapsed in epic fashion as the high-flying Eagles continue to amaze people with their ability to make something out of nothing. As great as the comeback was for the Eagles, and as devastating as it potentially could be for the Giants, can we all please agree on one thing - Giants Punter Matt Dodge was NOT the reason the Giants lost this game. Yes, his line-drive punt led to the deciding points in the final seconds of the game, but there were ten other Giant defenders on the field who failed to keep their lanes.
Not only that, but last time I checked... Matt Dodge wasn't responsible for covering Eagles Tight End Brent Celek on that 65-yard touchdown... Matt Dodge wasn't one of the Giants special team blockers that turned early and allowed the Eagles an easy onside-kick recovery... Matt Dodge didn't lose contain on Michael Vick's impressive 35-yard scramble that led to another 4-yard touchdown run for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year... Matt Dodge wasn't playing defense when the Eagles marched 88 yards down the field to tie the game at 31-31 in just under two minutes...
Had the Giants run the ball three straight times and taken all the time off the clock when they got the ball back with just over a minute to play, instead of having Manning go Pass Incomplete - Pass Incomplete - Sack - TIMEOUT - the Giants wouldn't have needed to punt and quite possibly would have won 34-31 in overtime. All the Giants - from Coughlin on down - are to blame for the embarrassing collapse on Sunday - not the punter, who had but one small part to play in the fiasco.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (Actual ~ Atlanta, 34-18)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 27-10. The Falcons cannot afford to have any letdowns before the Saints come to town next week.
Scottie V's Pick: Atlanta, 28-17. It's Week 15 and the Falcons are still gettin' it done... Maybe I need to buy in... Don't think the Seahawks are the team to halt this train.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 28-20. Atlanta by 7, Over/Under 45.5.
Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 24-14. Atlanta 64% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Atlanta, 27-26. Atlanta won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 11-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17
The Falcons are one win away from clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Seahawks are, quite possibly, one win away from becoming the worst division champion in NFL history.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ New York, 22-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-7. Pittsburgh will level some good old smash-mouth football on the Jets and shut them up for good.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 28-13. I can't wait for this game! Better hope that no Jet's coach tries to trip Troy Polamalu... He'll come at them like a spider-monkey!
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-14. Pittsburgh by 6, Over/Under 36.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 28-9. Pittsburgh 77% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-14. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 10-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
Just when you think the Jets are dead and buried, they go and pull off a dramatic upset like this and make you re-evaluate everything you hold near and dear. New York soldifies their Wild Card status with the victory, while Pittsburgh, surprisingly enough, clinches a playoff spot with their loss. The Steelers should be able to hold on and win the division, but no matter where they fall, they have punched a ticket to the post-season.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (Actual ~ Oakland, 39-23)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Oakland, 35-14. The Broncos are rapidly becoming an embarrassment and the Raiders will have no problem humiliating them further.
Scottie V's Pick: Oakland, 27-17. I can't believe that Oakland is respectable and I keep picking them to win... Has Hell frozen over? Has Al Davis left the 1980's??
Vegas Lines Pick: Oakland, 27-17. Oakland by 7, Over/Under 43.5.
Accuscore Pick: Oakland, 24-14. Oakland 64% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Oakland, 23-13. Oakland won all 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17. Oakland better at 6-7.
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland, 20-17
TIM TEBOW! Granted, the Raiders won easily going away by 16 points, but... TIM TEBOW!!!!!
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (Actual ~ New England, 31-27)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 31-17. Whether the weather is good or bad, Matt Flynn will not be able to keep pace with Brady and the explosive Patriots offense in New England.
Scottie V's Pick: New England, 34-20. This game might be a lot more interesting with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but let's be honest, even that might not stop the machine that is the New England Patriots.
Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 30-13. New England by 13.5, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: New England, 27-10. New England 73% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New England, 20-17. New England won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 11-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: New England, 20-17
Stat line of the game- Matt Flynn (251 yards, 3 TDs) vs Tom Brady (163 yards, 2 TDs). The Packers surprised everybody by nearly knocking off the Patriots at home, but Flynn's solid performance is undermined by confusion on the final 4th-and-1 play of the game. The Patriots clinched a playoff spot with the win and are one win away from clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. And how about that Dan Connolly? Talk about rumblin', bumblin', stumblin' for the greatest kickoff return by an offensive lineman in NFL history.
Come back tomorrow to laugh at Creative Misfortune's terrible prognostication for week 15 when the final prediction standings following the Monday Night Game are posted and to view the Conference Championship playoff results for Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season.
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