Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 11 (2014)

All systems struggled to perform in week 11 as NFL teams scrambled to maintain their position in the chase for playoff spots.

Almost all systems picked just 7 out of 13 games correctly this weekend, for an uninspiring 53.9% accuracy.

Only two systems did not finish the week picking 7 games correctly and those were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections. Both of those formulas only managed to pick 5 of the 13 games correctly, to finish with a terrible 38.5% accuracy.

All systems, except the blind Home Team Wins formula, favor the Pittsburgh Steelers to win tonight on the road.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 6. Steelers by 5.5, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.552 - 0.262
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 91-57
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3

Week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 11 (2014)

The bye weeks are almost over and then every team will be making their final scramble to make the playoffs... or start the rebuilding process for next year. Week 11 picks are listed below. May your team find victory this week!

Sunday Game Predictions:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2. Panthers by 2, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 6. Atlanta Falcons projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.451 - 0.304
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 1. Atlanta Falcons projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-76
     Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 3-6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears by 3, Over/Under 46
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 4. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.401 - 0.301
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 2. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-71
     Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Vikings better at 4-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns by 3, Over/Under 41.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 4. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.613 - 0.526
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 72-63
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 6-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 6. Packers by 6, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.693 - 0.671
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 91-83
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 7-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 1. Chiefs by 1, Over/Under 42.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.703 - 0.632
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 63-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Both teams at 6-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7. Saints by 7, Over/Under 50.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.564 - 0.459
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 8. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 88-66
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 5-3-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 4. 49ers by 4, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.479 - 0.363
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-70
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 5-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 19
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 10. Broncos by 9.5, Over/Under 50.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 17. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.695 - 0.264
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 17. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 104-56
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 7-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 7. Redskins by 7, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Washington Redskins by 7. Washington Redskins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.412 - 0.239
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Washington Redskins by 11. Washington Redskins projected to win by a fantasy score of 91-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Redskins better at 3-6
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 10
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 10. Chargers by 10, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 14. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.557 - 0.215
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 8. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-50
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 5-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2. Cardinals by 2, Over/under 41
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 1. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.655 - 0.643
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 1. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 60-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 8-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 8
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 57.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 1. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.696 - 0.680
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 98-89
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 7-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3


Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 11 (2014)

Second place in the AFC East is on the line tonight as two "on-the-cusp" teams square off. All systems favor the Dolphins to win at home tonight in a close game.


Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6. Dolphins by 5.5, Over/under 42
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.529
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-62
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Both teams at 5-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 11 slate...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 10 (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 32)
                    The Raiders may be one of the best 0-9 teams in NFL history. They just aren't a match for any other team in the league right now.

     # 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
                    Jacksonville has Denard Robinson… that's at least one nice thing that can be said about them.

     # 30 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
                    The Buccaneers continue to play uninspired football.

     # 29 - New York Jets (previous: 30)
                    The Jets have another victory going in to their bye week. Maybe, just maybe, that win will keep Rex Ryan on their sidelines in 2015.

     # 28 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 28)
                    The Titans are a very quiet 2-7 team and nobody outside of Tennessee will care if they finish the season 9-7 or 2-14, which is really weird.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 27)
                    The Rams can beat the Seahawks and the 49ers, they just can't seem to beat anybody else.

     # 26 - Chicago Bears (previous: 24)
                    A Bears team without a defense is a very sad thing to see.

     # 25 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 25)
                    Cam Newton isn't making the plays he needs to in order for the Panthers to be a successful football team. The defense has underperformed as well. Their only hope is that the Saints continue to struggle, because no Wild Card team is coming out of the NFC South.

     # 24 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 26)
                    The Falcons beat the Buccaneers… again. Now if they could just beat somebody else, they might be on to something.

     # 23 - New York Giants (previous: 22)
                    The Giants continue to surprise everybody by just how bad they are.

     # 22 - Washington Redskins (previous: 23)
                    Sorry, Coach Gruden, but every team is a couple of plays away from being 7-2. Find a better way to rationalize how "good" your team is.

     # 21 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 21)
                    Will the Vikings get Peterson back in time for a playoff run? Will it even matter if he comes back? Hard to say with this team.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 18)
                    I don't even know what to think about the Bengals any more. The division, once theirs, is now all but lost.

     # 19 - Houston Texans (previous: 19)
                    Hopefully the Texans healed up during their bye week and have given their new quarterback the confidence he needs to help them get back on the winning track.

     # 18 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 16)
                    The Bills get buffaloed once again and, much like the Dolphins, just can't find a way to break through to being a great team.

     # 17 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 13)
                    A terrible loss at home to the 49ers, but at least their division is terrible.

     # 16 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 17)
                    Have the Chargers figured out what has been going wrong the past few weeks?

     # 15 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 20)
                    Big win on the road, perhaps even a season-saving win for the 49ers.

     # 14 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 8)
                    The Dolphins are so close to breaking through, but they just can't quite take that next step.

     # 13 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 9)
                    After two great games, the Steelers come crashing back down to earth at the hands of the New York Jets.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 6)
                    The Chiefs are in the thick of the playoff chase, but it's difficult to say how long they will stay there. They certainly have potential to sneak in as a Wild Card.

     # 11 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 10)
                    In a surprisingly tough division, the Ravens may be on their way out.

     # 10 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 15)
                    Nice to see the Seahawks finally discovered their running game.

     # 9 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 14)
                    Alone in first place for the first time since… forever. Who can remember that long ago? It's great to finally see some positivity coming out of Cleveland. It's even greater that Johnny Football has nothing to do with their success so far.

     # 8 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 11)
                    A great game overseas and a bye week to rest up. Dallas should be in prime position to make their run for the division title. Their two games with the Eagles during the next four weeks will decide the division.

     # 7 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 12)
                    Packers or Lions in the NFC North? Their season-ending game at Lambeau might just be for all the division marbles.

     # 6 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
                    Lions or Packers in the NFC North? Their season-ending game at Lambeau might just be for all the division marbles.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
                    On Sunday night we will find out just how close the Colts are to being a championship-caliber team when the Patriots come to town.

     # 4 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 3)
                    Mark Sanchez, reborn. Now maybe we can see what kind of quarterback he truly is.

     # 3 - Denver Broncos (previous: 4)
                    The Broncos win big against the little teams, but that loss to New England two weeks ago still leaves plenty of doubts about how far this team can go into the playoffs.

     # 2 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 2)
                    Losing Carson Palmer for the year will be difficult, but the Cardinals played pretty well with Stanton at the helm. They should still be very competitive down the stretch.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    If the Patriots can come out of their bye week and defeat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night, they will have playoff tiebreakers over two of the other three AFC division leaders. That bodes well for them gaining home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.



Week 10 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Kansas City Chiefs (-6), Miami Dolphins (-6), Pittsburgh Steelers (-4), New Orleans Saints (-4), Buffalo Bills (-2)

The Biggest Movers - Green Bay Packers (+5), Cleveland Browns (+5), Seattle Seahawks (+5), San Francisco 49ers (+5), Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1), Arizona Cardinals (2), Indianapolis Colts (5), Houston Texans (19), Minnesota Vikings (21), Carolina Panthers (25), St. Louis Rams (27), Tennessee Titans (28), Jacksonville Jaguars (31), Oakland Raiders (32)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 10

AFC Favorite:



New England Patriots




NFC Favorite:

Philadelphia Eagles




Check back later tonight for Thursday Night Football game predictions.

Week 10 Results (2014) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

It's crunch time in the fantasy football regular season. With only two weeks remaining, teams are doing everything they can to punch their ticket to the postseason!

In week 10, the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints both managed to win fantasy games they lost in real life.

High score of the week goes to the Green Bay Packers, who scored 136 points against the Chicago Bears. The Denver Broncos (118) and the Philadelphia Eagles (114) also eclipsed the century mark this week en route to decisive fantasy football victories.

Low score falls to the Cincinnati Bengals at 13 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 24 points the Cleveland Browns scored against them. The Chicago Bears also failed to score more fantasy points (50) than the real number of points (55) the Green Bay Packers scored against them.

Closest Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills 60, Kansas City Chiefs 56. Though they lost in real life, the Buffalo Bills snatched a fantasy football victory from the Chiefs and have moved right into the thick of things in the AFC Wild Card chase.

Fantasy Star of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, 40 points. On a day when Peyton Manning threw five touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers threw six, Marshawn Lynch's four rushing touchdowns and 140 yards proved to be the height of individual player fantasy football scoring this week.


PLAYOFF PICTURE

With 2 weeks remaining in the Creative Misfortune fantasy regular season, the following teams have clinched a fantasy playoff spot (weeks 13-16):

NFC

New Orleans Saints (clinched NFC South title)

AFC

No teams have clinched a playoff spot in the AFC yet


The following teams have been eliminated from postseason play (weeks 13-16):

New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans

Oakland Raiders

New York Giants

Washington Redskins

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers

St. Louis Rams


Week 10 Game Results:

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
     Fantasy Score: Cleveland Browns 66, Cincinnati Bengals 13
     Cleveland's Key Performers: Defense (17), Terrance West (15), Ben Tate (11)
     Cincinnati's Key Performers: Mike Nugent (4), Jeremy Hill (3), A.J. Green (2)

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
     Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 60, Kansas City Chiefs 56
     Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (17), Alex Smith (15), Defense (9)
     Buffalo's Key Performers: Kyle Orton (14), Defense (9), Chris Hogan (9)

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
     Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 74, Miami Dolphins 57
     Miami's Key Performers: Caleb Sturgis (12), Mike Wallace (11), Ryan Tannehill (10)
     Detroit's Key Performers: Calvin Johnson (17), Matthew Stafford (17), Golden Tate (10)

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars
     Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 99, Jacksonville Jaguars 52
     Dallas' Key Performers: Dez Bryant (27), Tony Romo (21), DeMarco Murray (13)
     Jacksonville's Key Performers: Denard Robinson (17), Cecil Shorts III (11), Blake Bortles (11)

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
     Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 82, San Francisco 49ers 77
     San Francisco's Key Performers: Anquan Boldin (15), Frank Gore (14), Colin Kaepernick (12)
     New Orleans' Key Performers: Jimmy Graham (19), Drew Brees (17), Brandin Cooks (15)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
     Fantasy Score: New York Jets 70, Pittsburgh Steelers 60
     Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Martavis Bryant (20), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Shaun Suisham (8)
     New York's Key Performers: Michael Vick (16), Defense (14), T.J. Graham (12)

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
     Fantasy Score: Baltimore Ravens 69, Tennessee Titans 36
     Tennessee's Key Performers: Zach Mettenberger (9), Leon Washington (7), Bishop Sankey (6)
     Baltimore's Key Performers: Justin Forsett (23), Torrey Smith (13), Defense (13)

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Fantasy Score: Atlanta Falcons 82, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 67
     Atlanta's Key Performers: Steven Jackson (15), Matt Bryant (15), Matt Ryan (14)
     Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Josh McCown (19), Mike Evans (18), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (9)

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
     Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 118, Oakland Raiders 41
     Denver's Key Performers: Peyton Manning (29), C.J. Anderson (22), Julius Thomas (18)
     Oakland's Key Performers: Mychal Rivera (12), Derek Carr (11), Brice Butler (7)

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
     Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 78, St. Louis Rams 44
     St. Louis' Key Performers: Jared Cook (14), Benjamin Cunningham (8), Tre Mason (7)
     Arizona's Key Performers: Defense (25), John Brown (13), Larry Fitzgerald (11)

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
     Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 94, New York Giants 56
     New York's Key Performers: Preston Parker (13), Odell Beckham Jr. (11), Eli Manning (11)
     Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (40), Russell Wilson (18), Steven Hauschka (8)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
     Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 136, Chicago Bears 50
     Chicago's Key Performers: Brandon Marshall (17), Jay Cutler (8), Matt Forte (7)
     Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (36), Jordy Nelson (27), Eddie Lacy (17)

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
     Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 114, Carolina Panthers 55
     Carolina's Key Performers: Kelvin Benjamin (19), Cam Newton (12), Greg Olsen (11)
     Philadelphia's Key Performers: Defense (31), Jordan Matthews (25), Mark Sanchez (21)

Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 10 (2014)

All systems performed well in week 10, with the exception of the blind Home Team Wins formula.

Three systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 9 out of 12 games correctly for 75% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Vegas Lines formula, and the Pythagorean Theorem formula.

Three systems came close to the 70% accuracy mark by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula.

The blind Home Team Wins formula finished in sole possession of last place this week, only picking 6 out of 12 games correctly, for a 50% accuracy.

All systems favor the Philadelphia Eagles to win tonight at home by about 9 points.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 6. Eagles by 6, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 13. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.660 - 0.336
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 10. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 6-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3


Week 10 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 10 (2014)

With another six teams on a bye for the second consecutive week, only twelve games remain on the week 10 schedule. Which teams will take a huge step towards the playoffs and which will fall further by the wayside?

Sunday Game Predictions:

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 2. Chiefs by 1.5, Over/Under 41
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 7. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.707 - 0.545
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 2. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 67-61
     Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Both teams at 5-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions by 2.5, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 2. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.688 - 0.645
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 1. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 61-60
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 16
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 7, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 16. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.597 - 0.203
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 13. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-54
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5. Saints by 5, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.580 - 0.466
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-68
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Both teams at 4-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 15
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5. Steelers by 5, Over/Under 45.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 13. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.573 - 0.237
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 14. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 97-56
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 6-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 16
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10. Ravens by 10, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 16. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.682 - 0.285
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 13. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 88-51
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 5-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 2. Falcons by 1.5, Over/Under 45.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 7. Atlanta Falcons projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.417 - 0.238
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 6. Atlanta Falcons projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-69
     Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3. Falcons better at 2-6
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 18
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 12. Broncos by 11.5, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 17. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.661 - 0.238
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 14. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 96-57
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 6-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 13
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 7. Cardinals by 7, Over/Under 43
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 14. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.621 - 0.284
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 10. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a fantasy score of 81-52
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 7-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 9. Seahawks by 9, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.587 - 0.406
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-60
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 5-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 11
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 7. Packers by 7, Over/Under 53
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.588 - 0.378
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 6. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 90-73
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 10 (2014)

Bragging rights in the AFC North and the state of Ohio are on the line tonight! Who will emerge victorious? Most systems believe the Bengals will win, but two systems project victory for the upstart Browns. Here's hoping for a great, divisional game!


Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 7. Bengals by 6.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.553 - 0.522
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 1. Cincinnati Bengals projected to win by a fantasy score of 72-71
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 5-2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 10 slate...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 9 (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 32)
                    One of these days the Raiders will break through with a win, but it won't be this week when the Broncos come to town.

     # 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
                    Jacksonville continues to play spirited football, despite their losing record.

     # 30 - New York Jets (previous: 30)
                    The Jets make a change at quarterback… finally. I wonder if Rex Ryan will survive New York's bye in week 11.

     # 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
                    How the Buccaneers upset the Steelers back in week 4, I will never know.

     # 28 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 27)
                    Are the Titans still playing this season?



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 28)
                    They may not fare well outside of their division, but against their division rivals, the Rams are world-beaters.

     # 26 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 26)
                    The Falcons should win coming out of their bye week, but the Buccaneers may be about the only team remaining on their schedule they can defeat.

     # 25 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 24)
                    Once considered a "team to beat" in the NFC, the Panthers have degenerated down to nothing more than a one-man show.

     # 24 - Chicago Bears (previous: 25)
                    Until the Bears show they can play defense, nobody will be afraid of seeing them on their schedule.

     # 23 - Washington Redskins (previous: 23)
                    The Redskins follow up a great win over Dallas with a terrible loss in Minnesota. Maybe they should have stuck with Colt McCoy at quarterback.

     # 22 - New York Giants (previous: 22)
                    The Giants are absolutely terrible.

     # 21 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 21)
                    Could the Vikings become a surprise Wild Card contender if Adrian Peterson is cleared to return to the roster? Stranger things have happened and with the NFC being weaker than expected, it is definitely possible, if not probable.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 18)
                    You're supposed to put the ball in the end zone, Kaepernick, not on the ground! Butterfingers.

     # 19 - Houston Texans (previous: 14)
                    Now that the Texans have slipped below .500, could a change at quarterback be coming?

     # 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 20)
                    The division, once theirs, is now up for grabs. Cincinnati can reassert their claim on the division crown with a win against the Browns Thursday night.

     # 17 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 10)
                    What happened last week? Can't remember a team - even the Chargers - being so completely dismantled like San Diego was by the Dolphins.

     # 16 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 19)
                    Already trailing both Miami and New England, Buffalo has to be perfect down the stretch to have any real shot at a playoff spot.

     # 15 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 13)
                    These are not the Seahawks of 2013, but they still have time to turn their season around.

     # 14 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 16)
                    The Browns can take a huge step forward in the division tonight, or falter and fall back like they have so often in their past.

     # 13 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 15)
                    The Saints appear to be the only competent team in the NFC South, which isn't saying much for the division.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 11)
                    Have the Packers forgotten about their loss to New Orleans yet? Better hope so with a desperate Bears team coming to town.

     # 11 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 6)
                    Injuries have taken their toll on the Cowboys the last two weeks, but an International Series game against Jacksonville, followed by their bye week, should be just the medicine Dallas needs to get back on the winning track.

     # 10 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 8)
                    The Ravens have fallen out of favor and are starting to slip out of the playoff picture.

     # 9 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 12)
                    Two straight games, six touchdown passes. Never thought of the Steelers as a passing team.

     # 8 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 17)
                    Miami throttled the Chargers last week. Their defense will need to continue to play at that same high level if they hope to catch New England before the end of the season.

     # 7 - Detroit Lions (previous: 4)
                    Out of their bye week, can they fare better against Miami's defense than the Chargers?

     # 6 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 9)
                    The Chiefs are quietly becoming one of the most solid teams in the AFC.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
                    A little bit of Luck can take you a long way.

     # 4 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    Manning may have to figure out how to beat the Patriots in New England come playoff time.

     # 3 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 7)
                    How will the Eagles handle Foles' injury? If their defense and special teams play like they have most of the season, they should be okay.

     # 2 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 2)
                    The surprise team of the season, the Cardinals control their own destiny now in the NFC playoff race for the best overall seed and home-field advantage.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 3)
                    Titanic line shift on 4th and 1, up by a couple touchdowns... you have to hand it to Bill Belichick. He just doesn't care what people think of him.



Week 9 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - San Diego Chargers (-7), Dallas Cowboys (-5), Houston Texans (-5), Denver Broncos (-3), Detroit Lions (-3)

The Biggest Movers - Miami Dolphins (+9), Philadelphia Eagles (+4), Kansas City Chiefs (+3), Pittsburgh Steelers (+3), Buffalo Bills (+3)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Arizona Cardinals (2), Indianapolis Colts (5), Minnesota Vikings (21), New York Giants (22), Washington Redskins (23), Atlanta Falcons (26), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29), New York Jets (30), Jacksonville Jaguars (31), Oakland Raiders (32)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 9

AFC Favorite:



New England Patriots




NFC Favorite:

Philadelphia Eagles




Check back later tonight for Thursday Night Football game predictions.

Week 9 Results (2014) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

As we head down the home stretch of the fantasy season, teams are starting to be eliminated from playoff competition (weeks 13-16), but no teams have been able to clinch their spot in the playoffs just yet.

In week 9, the San Francisco 49ers were the only team that managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.

High score of the week goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored 119 points against the Baltimore Ravens. A few other teams also eclipsed the century mark en route to another fantasy victory. Those teams included the New England Patriots (117), Miami Dolphins (110), and the Indianapolis Colts (106).

Low score falls to the San Diego Chargers at 3 points. You read that correctly. The San Diego Chargers, as a team, combined for a field goal's worth of fantasy points. This is the fewest points ever scored by a team in the history of Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." feature. Earlier this season, the New York Jets only managed to score 8 points in a game, which had been the previous record in futility. Needless to say, the Chargers were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 37 points the Miami Dolphins scored against them.

Closest Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers 51, St. Louis Rams 48. The Rams won the game in real life on the strength of their defense and Colin Kaepernick's butterfingers at the goal line, but the 49ers emerged victorious in the fantasy world and helped their playoff chances, while hurting those of their division rival.

Fantasy Star of the Week: Ben Roethlisberger, 35 points. For the second straight week, Big Ben tops all fantasy scorers by becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to throw six touchdown passes in consecutive games. A large number of people had him benched for game one, but if you had him benched for game two of this impressive streak, you deserve whatever fantasy losses came your way this past weekend.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

With 3 weeks remaining in the Creative Misfortune fantasy regular season (weeks 10, 11, and 12), no teams have clinched a fantasy playoff spot yet.

The following teams, however, have been eliminated from post-season play (weeks 13-16):

New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans

Oakland Raiders



Week 9 Game Results:

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
     Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 85, Carolina Panthers 38
     New Orleans' Key Performers: Mark Ingram (23), Drew Brees (17), Jimmy Graham (14)
     Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (12), DeAngelo Williams (5), Jerricho Cotchery (5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
     Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 86, Jacksonville Jaguars 74
     Jacksonville's Key Performers: Allen Hurns (23), Denard Robinson (16), Blake Bortles (16)
     Cincinnati's Key Performers: Jeremy Hill (27), Mohamed Sanu (15), Andy Dalton (14)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
     Fantasy Score: Cleveland Browns 75, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 69
     Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Mike Evans (24), Mike Glennon (15), Bobby Rainey (11)
     Cleveland's Key Performers: Brian Hoyer (16), Taylor Gabriel (14), Billy Cundiff (12)

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
     Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 81, Dallas Cowboys 47
     Arizona's Key Performers: Carson Palmer (19), Andre Ellington (18), Defense (8)
     Dallas' Key Performers: DeMarco Murray (8), Dez Bryant (7), Brandon Weeden (7)

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
     Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 81, Houston Texans 71
     Philadelphia's Key Performers: Jeremy Maclin (27), LeSean McCoy (11), Chris Polk (11)
     Houston's Key Performers: Ryan Fitzpatrick (18), Arian Foster (17), DeAndre Hopkins (17)

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
     Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 63, New York Jets 52
     New York's Key Performers: Percy Harvin (12), Eric Decker (12), Michael Vick (12)
     Kansas City's Key Performers: Alex Smith (15), Jamaal Charles (14), Travis Kelce (12)

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
     Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 110, San Diego Chargers 3
     San Diego's Key Performers: Malcom Floyd (6), Keenan Allen (4), Antonio Gates (2)
     Miami's Key Performers: Ryan Tannehill (27), Defense (22), Charles Clay (12)

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings
     Fantasy Score: Minnesota Vikings 78, Washington Redskins 67
     Washington's Key Performers: Alfred Morris (22), DeSean Jackson (18), Robert Griffin III (14)
     Minnesota's Key Performers: Matt Asiata (25), Teddy Bridgewater (16), Chase Ford (12)

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
     Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 51, St. Louis Rams 48
     St. Louis' Key Performers: Defense (16), Kenny Britt (9), Greg Zeurlein (7)
     San Francisco's Key Performers: Anquan Boldin (15), Colin Kaepernick (10), Defense (9)

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
     Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 117, Denver Broncos 79
     Denver's Key Performers: Peyton Manning (21), Ronnie Hillman (17), Emmanuel Sanders (15)
     New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (27), Julian Edelman (20), Rob Gronkowski (16)

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
     Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 69, Oakland Raiders 50
     Oakland's Key Performers: Mychal Rivera (15), Derek Carr (11), Darren McFadden (6)
     Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (25), Defense (12), Steven Hauschka (12)

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 119, Baltimore Ravens 63
     Baltimore's Key Performers: Joe Flacco (18), Torrey Smith (12), Justin Forsett (9)
     Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (35), Antonio Brown (20), Martavis Bryant (16)

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
     Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 106, New York Giants 75
     Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (30), Adam Vinatieri (19), T.Y. Hilton (13)
     New York's Key Performers: Eli Manning (21), Odell Beckham Jr. (15), Andre Williams (10)

Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 9 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 9 went to the Vegas Lines formula, which picked 9 out of 12 games correctly for an impressive 75% accuracy.

Both of the blind pick systems - Best Record Wins and Home Team Wins - finished the week tied for second place by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for a very solid 66.7% accuracy.

The remaining formulas all struggled this week, hitting less than 60% accuracy with the following results: Fantasy Projections picked 7 out of 12 games correctly (58.3%), while Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Pythagoren Theorem formula both picked 6 out of 12 games correctly (50.0%). Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula finished last, only picking 4 out of 12 games correctly for a season-low 41.7% accuracy.

Most systems favor the Indianapolis Colts to win on the road, but two systems predict a victory for the Giants coming out of their bye week.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 50.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 9. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.666 - 0.445
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 12. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 100-67
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 5-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3

Week 9 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. It's crunch time of the fantasy football season. With only four weeks remaining before the playoffs, every point is critical, and all teams, except the New York Jets, have a shot at the fantasy playoffs.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 9 (2014)

With six teams on a bye this week, the NFL action is somewhat limited, but there are still some great games (and some real dogs) on this weekend's schedule.

Sunday Game Predictions:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 13
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 14
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 11. Bengals by 11, Over/Under 44
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 12. Cincinnati Bengals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.489 - 0.189
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 14. Cincinnati Bengals projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-52
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 4-2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 10
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7. Browns by 6.5, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 13. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.541 - 0.227
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Cleveland Browns by 14. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a fantasy score of 95-56
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 4-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4. Cowboys by 4, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 2. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.640 - 0.597
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 81-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 2. Eagles by 2, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.651 - 0.564
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 2. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-79
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 5-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 18
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 13
     Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 10. Chiefs by 9.5, Over/Under 42
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 17. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.680 - 0.252
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 14. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-43
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 4-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 2. Dolphins by 1.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.681 - 0.583
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-70
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 5-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1. Vikings by 1, Over/Under 44.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Washington Redskins by 1. Washington Redskins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.408 - 0.380
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Washington Redskins by 5. Washington Redskins projected to win by a fantasy score of 75-60
     Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Both teams at 3-5, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 10. 49ers by 10, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 9. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.474 - 0.263
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 11. San Francisco 49ers projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 4-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 3, Over/Under 54.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.747 - 0.669
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 2. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 87-81
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 15. Seahawks by 15, Over/Under 43
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 15. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.580 - 0.216
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-43
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 4-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1. Pick 'em! Over/Under 48, home team wins
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 10. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.768 - 0.527
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 80-79
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 5-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3


Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.