Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ After Championship Round Games (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLIX! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged, The Remarkably Average and the Fortunate Seven. They know what they've done.

The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    The Seahawks needed every bit of magic they could possibly muster in order to escape the NFC Championship with a win. They made some great plays down the stretch, but Green Bay's mistakes allowed them the opportunity to complete the greatest comeback in championship game history. The Patriots will not be as forgiving of four first-half turnovers as the Packers were.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    New England dominated the Colts in the AFC Championship game and once again return to a Super Bowl game that has been anything but their friend of late. Can the Patriots finally finish the season with a championship win or will the Seahawks send them home once again without a ring?


Championship Game Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Indianapolis Colts (-1)

The Biggest Movers - Green Bay Packers (+1)

Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1), Seattle Seahawks (2)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX

AFC Champion:

 



New England Patriots



NFC Champion:

Seattle Seahawks


Check back next week for Creative Misfortune's Super Bowl XLIX preview!

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Conference Championship Games (2014)

And then there were four...

Championship Game Predictions:

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7. Seahawks by 7, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.744 - 0.685
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Both teams at 13-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 6.5, Over/Under 53.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 3. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.711 - 0.649
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Check back next week for post-championship game power rankings...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ After Divisional Round Games (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLIX! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged, The Remarkably Average and the Fortunate Seven. They know what they've done.

The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 4 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 4)
                    The Packers are moving on to the NFC Championship game, but they have no shot at winning if they can't get healthy this week.

     # 3 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 6)
                    Indianapolis went into Denver and completely outplayed the Broncos. Can their Luck hold up in another road contest against the Patriots?

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    The Seahawks looked dominating at home against the Panthers.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    The Patriots continue to find ways to innovate, much to the consternation of the rest of the league.


Divisional Round Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Dallas Cowboys (-2), Denver Broncos (-2)

The Biggest Movers - Indianapolis Colts (+3), Baltimore Ravens (+1)

Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), Green Bay Packers (4), Carolina Panthers (8)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After the Divisional Round

AFC Favorite:

 



New England Patriots



NFC Favorite:

Seattle Seahawks



Check back tomorrow for the Conference Championship game predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Divisional Round (2014)

It's the divisional round of the NFL playoffs! The home teams have a huge advantage, but in recent years, the Wild Card teams have been nothing but upset-minded. If your team is still playing for a shot at the title, how will they fare this weekend?

Divisional Round Saturday Game Predictions:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 2. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.722 - 0.681
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seahawks by 10.5, Over/Under 40
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.739 - 0.462
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Divisional Round Sunday Game Predictions:

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 6. Packers by 6, Over/Under 52.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 1. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.688 - 0.659
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 7. Broncos by 7, Over/Under 53
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 1. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.675 - 0.641
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

Check back next Thursday for Championship game power rankings and predictions.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ After Wild Card Weekend (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLIX! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.

The Fortunate Three ~
     The best of those not yet elite                

     # 8 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 12)
                    The Panthers defense set a playoff record against Arizona by limiting the Cardinals to just 78 yards of total offense. They will have to play even better if they hope to go into Seattle and upset the defending champions.

     # 7 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 11)
                    This could be Baltimore's dream scenario - defeating the Steelers, Patriots, and the Broncos or Colts on their way to another Super Bowl appearance. The Ravens have had both playoff and regular season success against the remaining AFC playoff teams. If they can keep the game close with New England, they will have more than a decent shot of pulling off the upset this weekend.

     # 6 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 6)
                    Indianapolis looked good in their victory over Cincinnati, but not great. They will have to play much better if they hope to upset the Broncos in Denver.


The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Denver Broncos (previous: 5)
                    Which Broncos team will appear on Sunday? The Manning-led passing attack or the Anderson-led rushing attack? I'm not sure the Colts can handle either one.

     # 4 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 4)
                    The Packers are the only NFC team that finished the regular season undefeated at home. The Cowboys are the only NFL team that finished the regular season undefeated on the road. Something has to give on Sunday when these two teams collide at Lambeau.

     # 3 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 3)
                    The Cowboys have two things going for them this weekend- a perfect 8-0 record on the road and the confidence to believe they can win even if they fall behind early.

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    The defending champions have home-field advantage and a team with a losing record coming to town for a playoff game.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    The Patriots would have rather faced the Colts than the Ravens, but now that Baltimore is coming back to town, Brady will have to show the league why he is still an elite, Super Bowl-winning quarterback.


Wild Card Round Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Arizona Cardinals (-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (-2), Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

The Biggest Movers - Baltimore Ravens (+4), Carolina Panthers (+4)

Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), Dallas Cowboys (3), Green Bay Packers (4), Denver Broncos (5), Indianapolis Colts (6)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After the Wild Card round

AFC Favorite:

New England Patriots



NFC Favorite:

Dallas Cowboys


Check back tomorrow for Divisional playoff game predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2014)

The NFL playoffs are finally here. Let's get wild, everybody!

Wild Card Game Predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 7. Panthers by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.442
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.599
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.535
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.576
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next Thursday for Creative Misfortune's post-Wild Card round power rankings.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 17 (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLIX! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.

The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 25)
                    The Panthers made the playoffs with a losing record. Now after surviving the terrible NFC South regular season, how will they fare heading into the postseason undefeated?

     # 11 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 10)
                    Baltimore made it to the playoffs after all the drama that plagued them early in the season. A date with their biggest rivals should make their Wild Card game something special.

     # 10 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 12)
                    The Bengals have underperformed all year. Somehow I don't see them suddenly figuring things out in Indianapolis this weekend.

     # 9 - Detroit Lions (previous: 8)
                    The Lions are doing everything they can to sabotage themselves once again.

     # 8 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 11)
                    Division champions once again, but their division battles are not yet over this season.

     # 7 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 3)
                    The defense has struggled of late and they are down to their third-string quarterback, but the Cardinals should still keep things very competitive when they square off against the Panthers.

     # 6 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 4)
                    The Colts have a lot of potential, but are also vulnerable. It will be interesting to see how deep their inconsistent game will take them into the postseason.


The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Denver Broncos (previous: 2)
                    Have the Broncos morphed completely into a power running team? This might actually give Manning his last, best chance to win another Super Bowl title.

     # 4 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 7)
                    The Packers have struggled some, but are still one of the best teams in the league. The cold weather in Lambeau will give them an edge in the divisional round.

     # 3 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 5)
                    The Cowboys are playing better than they have in years and they have one huge advantage over every other NFC playoff team- they know they can defeat the Seahawks in Seattle.

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 6)
                    Home-field advantage once again should give the Seahawks the edge they need to return to the Super Bowl.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    Number one most of the season, I doubt anybody in the AFC will be able to defeat them in Foxboro.


Week 17 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Arizona Cardinals (-4), Denver Broncos (-3), Indianapolis Colts (-2), Detroit Lions (-1), Baltimore Ravens (-1)

The Biggest Movers - Carolina Panthers (+13), Seattle Seahawks (+4), Green Bay Packers (+3), Pittsburgh Steelers (+3), Dallas Cowboys (+2)

Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After the Regular Season

AFC Favorite:

New England Patriots



NFC Favorite:

Dallas Cowboys


Check back tomorrow for Wild Card game predictions.

Playoff Post Schedule

The NFL playoff field is set and the fantasy football season has ended. Through the end of the season, The Art of Creative Misfortune will feature playoff power rankings on Thursdays and playoff game predictions on Fridays until the week of the Super Bowl.

Happy New Year!

Creative Misfortune's Fantasy Bowl IV Results (2014) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

Happy New Year!

Creative Misfortune's fourth "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season has come to an end.

While AFC Champion New England Patriots struggled in week 16 against their rivals, the New York Jets, the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks rolled to a 35-6 victory over their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals. Victory for the Seahawks in Fantasy Bowl IV may seem like a foregone conclusion, but in fantasy football, a team can lose in real life and still be victorious if the numbers add up properly.

CREATIVE MISFORTUNE'S FANTASY BOWL IV ~

New England Patriots (11-2)
                    (AFC #1 playing at New York Jets)

            vs

Seattle Seahawks (11-2)
                    (NFC #1 playing at Arizona Cardinals)

 

Complete Fantasy Bowl IV Scoreboard Result ~

New England Patriots	pts				pts	Seattle Seahawks
Tom Brady	10		QB		35	Russel Wilson
Jonas Gray	6		RB1		23	Marshawn Lynch
Shane Vereen	4		RB2		3	Robert Turbin
Brandon LaFell	6		WR1		11	Doug Baldwin
Danny Amendola	6		WR2		5	Paul Richardson
Julian Edelman	0		WR3		1	Bryan Walters
Rob Gronkowski	9		TE		25	Luke Willson
Stephen Gostkowski	5		K		2	Steven Hauschka
Defense	7		DEF		13	Defense
Total	53		>>>		118	Total

Congratulations to the Seattle Seahawks, 2014's Creative Misfortune "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Champions! Now we will see if their fantasy success translates into true Super Bowl glory!

 

---

Creative Misfortune Fantasy Playoff Seeds

AFC Seeds

Division Champions ~
1. New England Patriots (9-2, 975 pts)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 924 pts)
3. Denver Broncos (7-4, 1,029 pts)
4. Indianapolis Colts (7-4, 990 pts)

Wild Cards ~
5. Cleveland Browns (8-3, 775 pts)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3, 748 pts)

NFC Seeds

Division Champions ~
1. Seattle Seahawks (9-2, 801 pts)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3, 995 pts)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4, 949 pts)
4. New Orleans Saints (7-4, 864 points)

Wild Cards ~
5. Arizona Cardinals (8-3, 782 pts)
6. Dallas Cowboys (7-4, 882 pts)

Wild Card Game Results - Week 13

AFC #6 Cincinnati Bengals (playing at Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at
AFC #3 Denver Broncos (playing at Kansas City Chiefs)
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 90, Cincinnati Bengals 50
Cincinnati's Key Performers: A.J. Green (11), Andy Dalton (11), Defense (7)
Denver's Key Performers: C.J. Anderson (23), Connor Barth (17), Peyton Manning (13)

AFC #5 Cleveland Browns (playing at Buffalo Bills) at
AFC #4 Indianapolis Colts (playing vs Washington Redskins)
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 129, Cleveland Browns 37
Cleveland's Key Performers: Miles Austin (8), Josh Gordan (7), Defense (6)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (32), Donte Moncrief (25), Coby Fleener (24)

NFC #6 Dallas Cowboys (playing vs Philadelphia Eagles) at
NFC #3 Philadelphia Eagles (playing at Dallas Cowboys)
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 96, Dallas Cowboys 36
Dallas' Key Performers: DeMarco Murray (17), Dez Bryant (7), Dan Bailey (4)
Philadelphia's Key Performers: Mark Sanchez (20), LeSean McCoy (19), Cody Parkey (15)

NFC #5 Arizona Cardinals (playing at Atlanta Falcons) at
NFC #4 New Orleans Saints (playing at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 97, Arizona Cardinals 52
Arizona's Key Performers: Drew Stanton (11), Stepfan Taylor (8), Jaron Brown (7)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (30), Kenny Stills (22), Mark Ingram (12)

Top Seeds Playing for Bye-Week Advantage*

AFC #1 - New England Patriots (playing at Green Bay Packers)
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 61
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (17), Brandon LaFell (15), Rob Gronkowski (9)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 61/4 = 15.25 = +15 points

AFC #2 - Pittsburgh Steelers (playing vs New Orleans Saints)
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 100
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Le'Veon Bell (30), Ben Roethlisberger (25), Antonio Brown (23)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 100/4 = 25.0 = +25 points

NFC #1 - Seattle Seahawks (playing at San Francisco 49ers)
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 78
Seattle's Key Performers: Defense (17), Russell Wilson (16), Steven Hauschka (14)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 78/4 = 19.5 = +19 points

NFC #2 - Green Bay Packers (playing vs New England Patriots)
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 91
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Mason Crosby (13), Davante Adams (12)
Divisional Matchup Bye-Week Advantage: 91/4 = 22.75 = +22 points

*Bye-week Advantage - To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.

Since there are no bye weeks between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.


Divisional Game Results - Week 14

AFC #4 Indianapolis Colts (playing at Cleveland Browns) at
     AFC #1 New England Patriots (BWA*: +15) (playing at San Diego Chargers)
     Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 99, Indianapolis Colts 77
     Indianapolis' Key Performers: T.Y. Hilton (25), Andrew Luck (22), Adam Vinatieri (9)
     Denver's Key Performers: Julian Edelman (20), Tom Brady (18), Bye-Week Advantage (15), Rob Gronkowski (14)


AFC #3 Denver Broncos (playing vs Buffalo Bills) at
     AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (BWA*: +25) (playing at Cincinnati Bengals)
     Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 150, Denver Broncos 65 
     Denver's Key Performers: C.J. Anderson (23), Defense (11), Wes Welker (8)
     Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Le'Veon Bell (41), Ben Roethlisberger (28), Bye-Week Advantage (25), Martavis Bryant (16)


NFC #4 New Orleans Saints (playing vs Carolina Panthers) at
     NFC #1 Seattle Seahawks (BWA*: +19) (playing at Philadelphia Eagles)
     Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 101, New Orleans Saints 33
     New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (11), Marques Colston (7), Benjamin Watson (6)
     Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (28), Bye-Week Advantage (19), Doug Baldwin (15), Marshawn Lynch (14)


NFC #3 Philadelphia Eagles (playing vs Seattle Seahawks) at
     NFC #2 Green Bay Packers (BWA*: +22) (playing vs Atlanta Falcons)
     Fantasy Score: Green Bay 135, Philadelphia Eagles 39
     Philadelphia's Key Performers: Mark Sanchez (9), Zach Ertz (9), Jeremy Maclin (8)
     Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (27), Jordy Nelson (26), Eddie Lacy (22), Bye-Week Advantage (22)


Conference Championship Game Results - Week 15

AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers (playing at Atlanta Falcons) at
     AFC #1 New England Patriots (playing vs Miami Dolphins)
     Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 99, Pittsburgh Steelers 81
     Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Le'Veon Bell (23), Ben Roethlisberger (14), Antonio Brown (12)      
     New England's Key Performers: Defense (20), Tom Brady (18), Rob Gronkowski (15)

NFC #2 Green Bay Packers (playing at Buffalo Bills) at
     NFC #1 Seattle Seahawks (playing vs San Francisco 49ers)
     Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 64, Green Bay Packers 50
     Green Bay's Key Performers: Eddie Lacy (16), Randall Cobb (10), Mason Crosby (7)
     Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (15), Defense (10), Russell Wilson (10)

Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Playoff Power Rankings.

Holiday Note

Because of travel over the holidays, Creative Misfortune will not post Week 16 power rankings or predictions for Week 17 NFL games.

"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Fantasy Bowl IV results will be posted on New Year's Eve.

Postseason Power Rankings will be posted on New Year's Day.

Wild Card game predictions will be posted on Friday, January 2, 2014.

Happy Holidays!

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 16 (2014)

First round byes and division titles are on the line as Denver takes on Cincinnati. Almost all systems favor the Broncos to win, but who knows what Cincinnati team will show up tonight.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 3, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.668 - 0.543
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 6. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-69
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 11-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3


"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Fantasy Bowl IV results will be posted on New Year's Eve, because I will be traveling, but results will be based on the games played in Week 16. Happy Holidays, Everybody!

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 16 (2014)

Playoff seeds will be won and lost this weekend. Is your team still fighting for the postseason?

Sunday Game Predictions:

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 41.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.518 - 0.425
     Fantasy Projection Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a fantasy score of 65-62
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 8-6
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 13
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 8. Eagles by 7.5, Over/Under 50
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 12. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.606 - 0.297
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 7. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-71
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 9-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 4. Panthers by 3.5, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.451 - 0.374
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1. Carolina Panthers projected to win by a fantasy score of 70-69
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 7-7
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Lions by 7, Over/Under 45.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 11. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.597 - 0.317
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 8. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-60
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 10-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 6. Ravens by 5.5, Over/Under 41
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 4. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.692 - 0.592
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 5. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-67
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 9-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 7. Dolphins by 6.5, Over/Under 42.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.549 - 0.459
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 70-58
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins better at 7-7
     Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. Saints by 6, Over/Under 56
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.484 - 0.465
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 94-87
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 6-8
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3

New England Patriots at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 21
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 10. Patriots by 10, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 20. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.747 - 0.257
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 15. New England Patriots projected to win by a fantasy score of 96-53
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 11-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 2. Kansas City Chiefs projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.637 - 0.581
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 6. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-68
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 9-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 16
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 11. Packers by 10.5, Over/Under 48.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 15. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.667 - 0.295
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 16. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 103-57
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 10-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 5. Rams by 5, Over/Under 43.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: St. Louis Rams by 1. St. Louis Rams projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.488 - 0.460
     Fantasy Projection Pick: St. Louis Rams by 1. St. Louis Rams projected to win by a fantasy score of 71-68
     Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3. Rams better at 6-8
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.666 - 0.588
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 95-82
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 10-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 15
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6. Bills by 6, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 16. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.601 - 0.201
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 15. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 83-41
     Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 8-6
     Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 8. Seahawks by 7.5, Over/Under 36.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.690 - 0.595
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 65-51
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3


Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 16 (2014)

Is anybody watching this epic battle between a couple of 2-12 teams? I can't even think of a fantasy angle that makes this game relevant.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3. Jaguars by 3, Over/Under 40.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Tennessee Titans by 1. Tennessee Titans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.224 - 0.203
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 1. Jacksonville Jaguars projected to win by a fantasy score of 65-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3. Both teams at 2-12, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 16 slate...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 15 (2014)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 32)
                    The Titans can't even beat the Jets. That's sad.

     # 31 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 29)
                    Now that the 49ers are eliminated, Oakland can start making plans for their new head coach to arrive from across the bay, unless Michigan steals him away first.

     # 30 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 31)
                    The Buccaneers have given up on the division title chase and are now looking at the #1 draft pick in 2015.

     # 29 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 30)
                    The Jaguars just won't quit. They're not beating anybody, but they aren't giving up either.

     # 28 - New York Jets (previous: 28)
                    Too little, too late, but it looks like the Jets are the best of the worst teams in the NFL.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
                    The Redskins are on the fast track to a 3-13 record.

     # 26 - Chicago Bears (previous: 24)
                    Cutler benched! Without a defense, the Bears at least need to perform on offense, especially at home.

     # 25 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 26)
                    The Panthers remain a half-game back of the Saints.

     # 24 - New York Giants (previous: 25)
                    The Giants rally for a late-season, meaningless win over the Redskins.

     # 23 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 22)
                    If the Falcons win the division, they'll be below .500.

     # 22 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 6)
                    Teddy Bridgewater is close to breaking through for the Vikings. He should give them some hope headed into the offseason.

     # 21 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 20)
                    The Rams are still playing strong defense. Too bad they don't have an offense.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 19)
                    Funny how when Johnny Football starts, the Browns score 0 points. Really makes you think, doesn't it?

     # 19 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 21)
                    The 49ers are done. Harbaugh can move on to another team now without worrying about it impacting San Francisco's performance in the playoffs.

     # 18 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 17)
                    Miami needed so much more than a 41-13 loss against the Patriots to keep their postseason hopes alive.

     # 17 - Houston Texans (previous: 15)
                    The Texans fell short against the Colts and now their season is over.

     # 16 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 23)
                    New Orleans controls their fate in the NFC South now. Can they win out and take the division with a .500 record?

     # 15 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 14)
                    The Chargers really needed to beat the Broncos last weekend. Now their season is all but over.

     # 14 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 18)
                    On the outside looking in, but still in the hunt, Buffalo still has an outside shot to sneak into the playoffs.

     # 13 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 16)
                    Kansas City has to make it as a Wild Card if they hope to reach the playoffs.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 13)
                    The Bengals still lead the division by a half-game. They will have to play perfect down the stretch if they hope to stay in first place.

     # 11 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 12)
                    The Steelers win and keep their playoff hopes alive.

     # 10 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 11)
                    Baltimore struggled against the Jaguars more than expected, but managed to win and stay alive in the AFC playoff chase.

     # 9 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 8)
                    The Eagles are suddenly on the oustide looking in. They need to win out and have Dallas stumble at least once in order to win the division now.

     # 8 - Detroit Lions (previous: 10)
                    Detroit suddenly finds themselves tied for first in the NFC North. Could they actually win the division? The Lions are, by far, the most overlooked of the 10 win teams in the NFL.

     # 7 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 2)
                    The Packers showed the league they are vulnerable on the road and nigh unstoppable at home.

     # 6 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 7)
                    Seattle can wrest control of the division away from the Cardinals on Sunday night… or lose the division outright if they fail in Arizona.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 9)
                    A huge win by Dallas in Philadelphia has the Cowboys in control of their own destiny, however they still need to win their final two games in order to guarantee their division title.

     # 4 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
                    The Colts have clinched their division, but have to finish the season and get help if they hope to earn a first-round bye.

     # 3 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 4)
                    Despite their injury woes at quarterback, Arizona is still a force to be reckoned with.

     # 2 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
                    The Broncos are showing they can win without Manning throwing four touchdowns a game. They will need to be a very well-rounded team if they hope to make it to the Super Bowl.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    The Patriots have clinched their division, but they have yet to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. A win over the Jets should accomplish that for them this weekend.



Week 15 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Minnesota Vikings (-16), Green Bay Packers (-5), Houston Texans (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Oakland Raiders (-2)

The Biggest Movers - New Orleans Saints (+7), Dallas Cowboys (+4), Buffalo Bills (+4), Kansas City Chiefs (+3), Detroit Lions (+2)

Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1), Washington Redskins (27), New York Jets (28), Tennessee Titans (32)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLIX Favorites ~ After Week 15

AFC Favorite:

New England Patriots



NFC Favorite:

Green Bay Packers



Check back later tonight for Thursday Night game predictions.