Super Bowl XLVI Preview - New York's Offense vs New England's Defense

The New York Giants have been playing on a shoe-string and a prayer since their first victory in Dallas late in the regular season. Having to win out in order to win it all, the Giants are one win away from a championship run that seemed nearly impossible just a few months ago when this team was mired in their longest losing streak of the season. Eli Manning has won more playof games on the road than any other quarterback in NFL history and has a chance to once again lead his team against the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Despite the weapons that Manning has at his disposal - a power running game, a deep receiving corps led by the breakout star of the season, Victor Cruz, and a strong offensive line - the Giants offense will be no match for New England if their defense can't slow down Brady and his talented offense.

The Patriots, for their part, have improved greatly on defense during the second half of the season. When the offense stumbled against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, the defense picked up the slack and punched New England's ticket to the Super Bowl. The Patriots D will have to play better than average if they want to get Manning off the field and put the ball back into Brady's hands.


Super Bowl XLVI Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games


            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points


                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Giants Offense vs	Patriots Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	162	131
Rushing Yards	1779	2134	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.091	0.061	0.076
At their Best (DEF worst)	172 yards	252 yards	212 yards = 16.1 pts = 16 pts
2011 Average	93 yards	119 yards	106 yards = 8.1 pts = 8 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	29 yards	73 yards	51 yards = 3.9 pts = 4 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	295	229
Passing Yards	5596	5093	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.053	0.045	0.049
At their Best (DEF Worst)	400 yards	393 yards	397 yards = 19.5 pts = 20 pts
2011 Average	295 yards	283 yards	289 yards = 14.2 pts = 14 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	204 yards	108 yards	156 yards =   7.6 pts =   8 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	16 pts + 20 pts	36
2011 Average	8 pts + 14 pts	22
At their Worst	4 pts +   8 pts	12

Projected Super Bowl XLVI Score for the New York Giants: 23 points

Based on the New England projections from yesterday versus the New York defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect New England to win a relatively close shoot-out, 42-36.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect another close game with New England coming out on top, 26-23.

In a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle takes place, expect this to be the first Super Bowl that finishes in overtime as both teams battle to a 12-12 (or 14-14) draw in regulation. At that point, all bets are off on who will win the game.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if New York hopes to win, they will need to force some turnovers to give their offense extra help and break off some dynamic returns with their special teams. If any team can overcome the potential threat of an opposing offense, the Giants can.


Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…