Super Bowl XLV Preview - Pittsburgh Offense vs Green Bay Defense

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that can win by blowing out their opponents or by grinding out a victory in a slugfest. Few teams can win as ugly and as often as the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is tough to bring down and is quite nimble in the pocket for a man of his size. His ability to extend plays while defensive linemen are draped all over him will force the Green Bay secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Hines Ward, a violent, possession receiver, anchors the Steelers receiving corps, while the speedster Mike Wallace can stretch secondaries.

Pittsburgh may not be the best passing team in the league, but they have the low-down dirty ability to pound opponents with their running game. Spearheaded by Rashard Mendenhall, plus the added dynamic of Roethlisberger's ability to run the football himself, Pittsburgh can control the clock and devastate defenses with their rushing prowess. The offensive line has managed to stay reasonably healthy this season, though like all others they have been banged up enough that their backup players have been forced to shine. The Steelers may actually be the only team able to come from behind by running the football, since their defense is so strong.

The Green Bay Packers defense has played lights out football during their run through the playoffs. While Pittsburgh won’t ever wow you with their offense, the Packers will have to play tougher than they have all season in order to get the ball back into the hands of their talented offense. Green Bay can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Steelers if their offense can give them a two-score lead.



Super Bowl XLV Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games


            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points


                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Steelers Offense vs	Packers Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	179	100
Rushing Yards	2161	2047	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.083	0.049	0.066
At their Best (DEF worst)	206 yards	196 yards	201 yards = 13.3 pts = 13 pts
2010 Average	120 yards	108 yards	114 yards = 7.5 pts = 8 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	54 yards	39 yards	47 yards = 3.1 pts = 3 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	215	171
Passing Yards	3913	3745	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.055	0.046	0.053
At their Best (DEF Worst)	349 yards	322 yards	336 yards = 17.8 pts = 18 pts
2010 Average	217 yards	197 yards	207 yards = 10.9 pts = 11 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	21 yards	62 yards	42 yards = 2.2 pts   = 2 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	13 pts + 18 pts	31
2010 Average	8 pts + 11 pts	19
At their Worst	3 pts + 2 pts	5

Project Pittsburgh Steelers Score: 17 points

Based on the Green Bay projections from yesterday versus the Pittsburgh defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Green Bay to win a close shoot-out, 33-31.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect another close game with Green Bay coming out on top, 21-19. Pittsburgh loves games that have at least one team scoring 19 points...

In a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle, expect Green Bay's offense to be the one to generate the lone touchdown in a 10-6 battle.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if Pittsburgh hopes to win, they will need to force some turnovers to give their offense extra help and break off some dynamic returns with their special teams. If any team can overcome the potential shortcomings of their offense, the Steelers can.


Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…