All systems look to achieve that magical 70% accuracy mark that Vegas hit last week. Can Vegas continue to make picks at such a high success rate or will they start to falter and allow the PPY formulas or Blind Pick systems to catch up? We'll know more following this weekend's games.
Sunday Game Predictions:
St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 7. Falcons by 7, Over/under 46.5
Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3. Rams better at 1-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2. Panthers by 1.5, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Both teams at 0-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 7. Bears by 7, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 1-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 2.5, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Both teams at 1-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Packers by 9, Over/under 49.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Both teams at 0-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 20
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 11. Texans by 10.5, Over/Under 43
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Both teams at 1-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs by 2.5, Over/Under 46.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Both teams at 1-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 9. Eagles by 9, Over/Under 55
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 1-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 17
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Ravens by 7, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Both teams at 0-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 1. Lions by 1, Over/Under 48.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 1-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4. Saints by 3.5, Over/Under 47.5
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 1-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
Denver Broncos at New York Giants
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Broncos by 4.5, Over/Under 54.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 1-0
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Oakland Raiders by 6. Raiders by 5.5, Over/Under 39
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3. Both teams at 0-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 14
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks by 2.5, Over/Under 44
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Both teams at 1-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Friday, September 13, 2013
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 2 (2013)
Week 2 gets underway with a great divisional matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! All systems predict a victory by New England, most by double-digit points.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 15
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 17
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 13. Patriots by 13, Over/Under 43
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Both teams at 1-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 2 matchups...
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 15
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 17
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 13. Patriots by 13, Over/Under 43
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Both teams at 1-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 2 matchups...
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 1 (2013)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
Just when you think the Jaguars couldn't possibly get any worse, they open up the season by scoring nothing more than a safety before the home crowd. This might end up being a very long season for the Jaguars and their two faithful fans. They should just sign Tebow and bring him back home. It's not like they have anything to lose at this point.
# 31 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 22)
All the potential in the world, but the Browns just continue to play like, well… the Browns.
# 30 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 20)
Sure, the Panthers took on the Seahawks, but even against Seattle Cam Newton and company should have been able to manage more than a single touchdown.
# 29 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 15)
The defending Super Bowl Champions have a lot to prove following their opening night loss to the Broncos.
# 28 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 14)
Injuries have already taken their toll on this aging team.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 26)
Pryor showed flashes of brilliance in his first game at the helm of the Raiders. They will get better if he can improve his game and be more consistent.
# 26 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 18)
If only Adrian Peterson could throw the ball and play defense, the Vikings would be nigh unstoppable.
# 25 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 28)
Palmer to Fitzgerald could be big this year… the Cardinals still are outside the playoff picture, but they could surprise some people before the season is over.
# 24 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 24)
So close to upsetting the Patriots week one, the Bills still have to prove they can win games before anyone will take them seriously.
# 23 - Washington Redskins (previous: 10)
RGIII is back! And very, very rusty… The Redskins showed what they could do in the second half against the Eagles, now they just have to get their football legs back under them so they can play a full game.
# 22 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 17)
That was a terrible way to start the season.
# 21 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 11)
The Packers showed some spit and fire, but were still overmatched by the 49ers.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 6)
The division is still there for them if they want it, but the Falcons will have to take out the Saints when they play them at home later this year if they hope to repeat as division champions.
# 19 - New York Giants (previous: 7)
Anybody need a running back? I feel for David Wilson. I hope he can win his job back, because he is a talented player, but once in Coughlin's doghouse, it's hard to climb back out again.
# 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 12)
If the Bengals can truly establish a running game and become two-dimensional, they will be difficult to stop.
# 17 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 9)
Nothing worse than blowing a 21-point lead in the second half on national TV. The only good thing about that loss was that most of the eastern seaboard went to bed thinking the Chargers won…
# 16 - New York Jets (previous: 29)
Ugly, ugly win over the Buccaneers. Could bode well for their Thursday Night game against the Patriots.
# 15 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 32)
A nice, solid win for the Chiefs… but anybody should be able to beat the Jaguars. We'll know soon enough if the Chiefs are really going to challenge for anything more than the #1 draft pick next year.
# 14 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 25)
I'm not sure what to make of the Titans. That game against Pittsburgh didn't show us much.
# 13 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 21)
A tough, gritty come-from-behind win is just what this young team needed to propel them on to bigger and better things.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 30)
The blur offense certainly slowed down in the second half, but it sure was impressive. Now, as long as it doesn't get Vick killed, the Eagles should be fine.
# 11 - Detroit Lions (previous: 27)
Detroit survived Adrian Peterson… now how will they fare against the rest of the league?
# 10 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 16)
Dallas has never beaten the Giants in their new stadium. They've never forced the Giants to commit 6 turnovers, either. Both those are good signs for the rest of the year.
# 9 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 19)
The Saints are off to a fast, strong start after knocking out their division rivals. If they can stay the course, they'll be on their way to the playoffs.
# 8 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 13)
They shouldn't have needed so much Luck to get by the Oakland Raiders. Still, a victory is a victory.
# 7 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 23)
Can the Dolphins actually play both offense and defense? Sure, they went up against the Browns, but they'll take any win they can get these days.
# 6 - Chicago Bears (previous: 8)
A tough, comeback win against an AFC favorite. The Bears may not be flashy, but they do know how to win games.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Houston Texans (previous: 4)
Their season could have collapsed in San Diego on Monday, but they rallied and now have the confidence to believe they can win no matter what the odds are against them.
# 4 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 5)
The 49ers handled the Packers with relative ease, considering how good of a team Green Bay is.
# 3 - New England Patriots (previous: 2)
At home or on the road, the Patriots should not need a last-second field goal in order to beat the Buffalo Bills. A quick turn-around against a hated rival should help them get their groove back… or knock them further off stride.
# 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 3)
It's always difficult to win on the road in the NFL, even more so for a West Coast team traveling back east. The Seahawks proved they can win a close, grind-it-out kind of game last weekend. Now they need to show they can win the shoot-outs as well.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
Enough can't be said about Manning's performance on opening night. And now that he has a solid defense to get him the ball back, few teams will be able to hang with the Broncos over four quarters.
Week 1 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Atlanta Falcons (-14), Pittsburgh Steelers (-14), Baltimore Ravens (-14), Washington Redskins (-13), New York Giants (-12)
The Biggest Movers - Philadelphia Eagles (+18), Kansas City Chiefs (+17), Miami Dolphins (+16), Detroit Lions (+16), New York Jets (+13)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Buffalo Bills (24)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 1
Denver Broncos
Check back later this evening for the Thursday Night game predictions...
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 31)
Just when you think the Jaguars couldn't possibly get any worse, they open up the season by scoring nothing more than a safety before the home crowd. This might end up being a very long season for the Jaguars and their two faithful fans. They should just sign Tebow and bring him back home. It's not like they have anything to lose at this point.
# 31 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 22)
All the potential in the world, but the Browns just continue to play like, well… the Browns.
# 30 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 20)
Sure, the Panthers took on the Seahawks, but even against Seattle Cam Newton and company should have been able to manage more than a single touchdown.
# 29 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 15)
The defending Super Bowl Champions have a lot to prove following their opening night loss to the Broncos.
# 28 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 14)
Injuries have already taken their toll on this aging team.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 26)
Pryor showed flashes of brilliance in his first game at the helm of the Raiders. They will get better if he can improve his game and be more consistent.
# 26 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 18)
If only Adrian Peterson could throw the ball and play defense, the Vikings would be nigh unstoppable.
# 25 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 28)
Palmer to Fitzgerald could be big this year… the Cardinals still are outside the playoff picture, but they could surprise some people before the season is over.
# 24 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 24)
So close to upsetting the Patriots week one, the Bills still have to prove they can win games before anyone will take them seriously.
# 23 - Washington Redskins (previous: 10)
RGIII is back! And very, very rusty… The Redskins showed what they could do in the second half against the Eagles, now they just have to get their football legs back under them so they can play a full game.
# 22 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 17)
That was a terrible way to start the season.
# 21 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 11)
The Packers showed some spit and fire, but were still overmatched by the 49ers.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 6)
The division is still there for them if they want it, but the Falcons will have to take out the Saints when they play them at home later this year if they hope to repeat as division champions.
# 19 - New York Giants (previous: 7)
Anybody need a running back? I feel for David Wilson. I hope he can win his job back, because he is a talented player, but once in Coughlin's doghouse, it's hard to climb back out again.
# 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 12)
If the Bengals can truly establish a running game and become two-dimensional, they will be difficult to stop.
# 17 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 9)
Nothing worse than blowing a 21-point lead in the second half on national TV. The only good thing about that loss was that most of the eastern seaboard went to bed thinking the Chargers won…
# 16 - New York Jets (previous: 29)
Ugly, ugly win over the Buccaneers. Could bode well for their Thursday Night game against the Patriots.
# 15 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 32)
A nice, solid win for the Chiefs… but anybody should be able to beat the Jaguars. We'll know soon enough if the Chiefs are really going to challenge for anything more than the #1 draft pick next year.
# 14 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 25)
I'm not sure what to make of the Titans. That game against Pittsburgh didn't show us much.
# 13 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 21)
A tough, gritty come-from-behind win is just what this young team needed to propel them on to bigger and better things.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 30)
The blur offense certainly slowed down in the second half, but it sure was impressive. Now, as long as it doesn't get Vick killed, the Eagles should be fine.
# 11 - Detroit Lions (previous: 27)
Detroit survived Adrian Peterson… now how will they fare against the rest of the league?
# 10 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 16)
Dallas has never beaten the Giants in their new stadium. They've never forced the Giants to commit 6 turnovers, either. Both those are good signs for the rest of the year.
# 9 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 19)
The Saints are off to a fast, strong start after knocking out their division rivals. If they can stay the course, they'll be on their way to the playoffs.
# 8 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 13)
They shouldn't have needed so much Luck to get by the Oakland Raiders. Still, a victory is a victory.
# 7 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 23)
Can the Dolphins actually play both offense and defense? Sure, they went up against the Browns, but they'll take any win they can get these days.
# 6 - Chicago Bears (previous: 8)
A tough, comeback win against an AFC favorite. The Bears may not be flashy, but they do know how to win games.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Houston Texans (previous: 4)
Their season could have collapsed in San Diego on Monday, but they rallied and now have the confidence to believe they can win no matter what the odds are against them.
# 4 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 5)
The 49ers handled the Packers with relative ease, considering how good of a team Green Bay is.
# 3 - New England Patriots (previous: 2)
At home or on the road, the Patriots should not need a last-second field goal in order to beat the Buffalo Bills. A quick turn-around against a hated rival should help them get their groove back… or knock them further off stride.
# 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 3)
It's always difficult to win on the road in the NFL, even more so for a West Coast team traveling back east. The Seahawks proved they can win a close, grind-it-out kind of game last weekend. Now they need to show they can win the shoot-outs as well.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
Enough can't be said about Manning's performance on opening night. And now that he has a solid defense to get him the ball back, few teams will be able to hang with the Broncos over four quarters.
Week 1 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Atlanta Falcons (-14), Pittsburgh Steelers (-14), Baltimore Ravens (-14), Washington Redskins (-13), New York Giants (-12)
The Biggest Movers - Philadelphia Eagles (+18), Kansas City Chiefs (+17), Miami Dolphins (+16), Detroit Lions (+16), New York Jets (+13)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Buffalo Bills (24)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 1
Denver BroncosCheck back later this evening for the Thursday Night game predictions...
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Week 1 Results (2013) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
A wild opening weekend of NFL action has produced some fairly stable fantasy football results.
In week 1, only the New York Giants managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Denver Broncos, who scored 145 points against the Baltimore Ravens.
Low score falls to the Jacksonville Jaguars at 17 points. They were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 28 points the Kansas City Chiefs scored against them.
Closest Game of the Week: St. Louis Rams 80, Arizona Cardinals 78.
Fantasy Stars of the Week: Peyton Manning, 46 points. Clearly Manning knows how to throw the football and propel both his real team and his fantasy teams to victory.
Week 1 Game Results:
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 145, Baltimore Ravens 73
Baltimore's Key Performers: Joe Flacco (18), Ray Rice (12), Marlon Brown (12)
Denver's Key Performers: Peyton Manning (46), Demaryius Thomas (28), Julius Thomas (23)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 81, Buffalo Bills 64
New England's Key Performers: Julian Edelman (19), Tom Brady (15), Shane Vereen (15)
Buffalo's Key Performers: EJ Manuel (16), Defense (13), Fred Jackson (10)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 65, Carolina Panthers 46
Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (14), Jermaine Kearse (10), Defense (9)
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (12), Steve Smith (11), Defense (8)
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Fantasy Score: Chicago Bears 77, Cincinnati Bengals 62
Cincinnati's Key Performers: A.J. Green (28), Andy Dalton (15), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (8)
Chicago's Key Performers: Jay Cutler (16), Brandon Marshall (16), Matt Forte (15)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 78, Cleveland Browns 52
Miami's Key Performers: Brian Hartline (17), Defense (16), Caleb Sturgis (13)
Cleveland's Key Performers: Jordan Cameron (16), Brandon Weeden (9), Trent Richardson (7)
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 69, Oakland Raiders 59
Oakland's Key Performers: Terrelle Pryor (19), Darren McFadden (11), Denarius Moore (10)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (24), Reggie Wayne (15), Dwayne Allen (8)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 107, Minnesota Vikings 63
Minnesota's Key Performers: Adrian Peterson (28), Jerome Simpson (14), Blair Walsh (8)
Detroit's Key Performers: Reggie Bush (25), Matthew Stafford (20), Joique Bell (20)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 79, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Kansas City's Key Performers: Defense (23), Alex Smith (16), Jamaal Charles (15)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Maurice Jones-Drew (4), Cecil Shorts (4), Allen Reisner (3)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 87, Atlanta Falcons 69
Atlanta's Key Performers: Matt Ryan (19), Steven Jackson (11), Julio Jones (11)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (20), Marques Colston (12), Garrett Hartley (12)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Fantasy Score: New York Jets 64, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Vincent Jackson (15), Mike Williams (11), Josh Freeman (10)
New York's Key Performers: Geno Smith (14), Kellen Winslow (13), Nick Folk (12)
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 54, Pittsburgh Steelers 36
Tennessee's Key Performers: Defense (13), Rob Bironas (11), Jackie Battle (8)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (9), Jerricho Cotchery (9), Antonio Brown (7)
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Fantasy Score: St. Louis Rams 80, Arizona Cardinals 78
Arizona's Key Performers: Larry Fitzgerald (20), Carson Palmer (17), Defense (9)
St. Louis' Key Performers: Jared Cook (24), Sam Bradford (19), Greg Zuerlein (14)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 105, Green Bay Packers 83
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Jordy Nelson (19), Randall Cobb (16)
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (30), Anquan Boldin (26), Vernon Davis (21)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 98, Dallas Cowboys 94
New York's Key Performers: Victor Cruz (29), Eli Manning (28), Brandon Myers (12)
Dallas' Key Performers: Defense (23), Jason Witten (19), Tony Romo (16)
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
Fantasy Score: Houston Texans 87, San Diego Chargers 70
Houston's Key Performers: Matt Schaub (23), Owen Daniels (18), Andre Johnson (14)
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (22), Eddie Royal (14), Ryan Mathews (11)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 96, Washington Redskins 73
Philadelphia's Key Performers: Michael Vick (25), LeSean McCoy (24), DeSean Jackson (16)
Washington's Key Performers: Leonard Hankerson (20), Robert Griffin III (19), Defense (9)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
In week 1, only the New York Giants managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Denver Broncos, who scored 145 points against the Baltimore Ravens.
Low score falls to the Jacksonville Jaguars at 17 points. They were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 28 points the Kansas City Chiefs scored against them.
Closest Game of the Week: St. Louis Rams 80, Arizona Cardinals 78.
Fantasy Stars of the Week: Peyton Manning, 46 points. Clearly Manning knows how to throw the football and propel both his real team and his fantasy teams to victory.
Week 1 Game Results:
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 145, Baltimore Ravens 73
Baltimore's Key Performers: Joe Flacco (18), Ray Rice (12), Marlon Brown (12)
Denver's Key Performers: Peyton Manning (46), Demaryius Thomas (28), Julius Thomas (23)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 81, Buffalo Bills 64
New England's Key Performers: Julian Edelman (19), Tom Brady (15), Shane Vereen (15)
Buffalo's Key Performers: EJ Manuel (16), Defense (13), Fred Jackson (10)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 65, Carolina Panthers 46
Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (14), Jermaine Kearse (10), Defense (9)
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (12), Steve Smith (11), Defense (8)
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Fantasy Score: Chicago Bears 77, Cincinnati Bengals 62
Cincinnati's Key Performers: A.J. Green (28), Andy Dalton (15), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (8)
Chicago's Key Performers: Jay Cutler (16), Brandon Marshall (16), Matt Forte (15)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 78, Cleveland Browns 52
Miami's Key Performers: Brian Hartline (17), Defense (16), Caleb Sturgis (13)
Cleveland's Key Performers: Jordan Cameron (16), Brandon Weeden (9), Trent Richardson (7)
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 69, Oakland Raiders 59
Oakland's Key Performers: Terrelle Pryor (19), Darren McFadden (11), Denarius Moore (10)
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (24), Reggie Wayne (15), Dwayne Allen (8)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 107, Minnesota Vikings 63
Minnesota's Key Performers: Adrian Peterson (28), Jerome Simpson (14), Blair Walsh (8)
Detroit's Key Performers: Reggie Bush (25), Matthew Stafford (20), Joique Bell (20)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 79, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Kansas City's Key Performers: Defense (23), Alex Smith (16), Jamaal Charles (15)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Maurice Jones-Drew (4), Cecil Shorts (4), Allen Reisner (3)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 87, Atlanta Falcons 69
Atlanta's Key Performers: Matt Ryan (19), Steven Jackson (11), Julio Jones (11)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (20), Marques Colston (12), Garrett Hartley (12)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Fantasy Score: New York Jets 64, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Vincent Jackson (15), Mike Williams (11), Josh Freeman (10)
New York's Key Performers: Geno Smith (14), Kellen Winslow (13), Nick Folk (12)
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 54, Pittsburgh Steelers 36
Tennessee's Key Performers: Defense (13), Rob Bironas (11), Jackie Battle (8)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (9), Jerricho Cotchery (9), Antonio Brown (7)
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Fantasy Score: St. Louis Rams 80, Arizona Cardinals 78
Arizona's Key Performers: Larry Fitzgerald (20), Carson Palmer (17), Defense (9)
St. Louis' Key Performers: Jared Cook (24), Sam Bradford (19), Greg Zuerlein (14)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 105, Green Bay Packers 83
Green Bay's Key Performers: Aaron Rodgers (24), Jordy Nelson (19), Randall Cobb (16)
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (30), Anquan Boldin (26), Vernon Davis (21)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 98, Dallas Cowboys 94
New York's Key Performers: Victor Cruz (29), Eli Manning (28), Brandon Myers (12)
Dallas' Key Performers: Defense (23), Jason Witten (19), Tony Romo (16)
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
Fantasy Score: Houston Texans 87, San Diego Chargers 70
Houston's Key Performers: Matt Schaub (23), Owen Daniels (18), Andre Johnson (14)
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (22), Eddie Royal (14), Ryan Mathews (11)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 96, Washington Redskins 73
Philadelphia's Key Performers: Michael Vick (25), LeSean McCoy (24), DeSean Jackson (16)
Washington's Key Performers: Leonard Hankerson (20), Robert Griffin III (19), Defense (9)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
Monday, September 9, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 1 (2013)
With two games remaining in week 1, the first week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...
Vegas comes out on top - as it often does - hitting 11 out of 14 games over the weekend, an impressive 78.57% accuracy percentage that can't possibly be maintained over the course of the entire season.
The blind pick systems, Home Team and Best Record, tied for second getting 9 out of 14 games for a solid 64.29% accuracy percentage, exceeding their normal expected performance.
Both PPY formulas struggled a bit as a few surprises took place around the league, coming in with 8 out of 14 games picked correctly, a very underwhelming 57.14% accuracy. History shows both formulas get stronger as the year goes on, but we will see if 2013 shapes up to be an off-year for them as the NFL continues to be the most unpredictable of sports.
Here are the Monday Night Game predictions for week 1. Two games on the card tonight. Enjoy!
Monday Night Game Predictions:
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 4. Texans by 4, Over/Under 44
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 16
Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Redskins by 3, Over/Under 51.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Week 1 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
Vegas comes out on top - as it often does - hitting 11 out of 14 games over the weekend, an impressive 78.57% accuracy percentage that can't possibly be maintained over the course of the entire season.
The blind pick systems, Home Team and Best Record, tied for second getting 9 out of 14 games for a solid 64.29% accuracy percentage, exceeding their normal expected performance.
Both PPY formulas struggled a bit as a few surprises took place around the league, coming in with 8 out of 14 games picked correctly, a very underwhelming 57.14% accuracy. History shows both formulas get stronger as the year goes on, but we will see if 2013 shapes up to be an off-year for them as the NFL continues to be the most unpredictable of sports.
Here are the Monday Night Game predictions for week 1. Two games on the card tonight. Enjoy!
Monday Night Game Predictions:
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 4. Texans by 4, Over/Under 44
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 16
Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Redskins by 3, Over/Under 51.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Week 1 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
Friday, September 6, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 1 (2013)
Week 1 is upon us... time to pick the opening round Sunday games! All systems look to continue their accurate ways after predicting the Broncos victory over the Ravens on Thursday night. The Home/Away Points-per-Yard formula nearly had a perfect pick last night. What a way for it to start its prediction career!
Sunday Game Predictions:
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 19
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 14
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 11. Patriots by 10.5, Over/Under 50.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4. Seahawks by 3.5, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears by 3, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1. Browns by 1, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 18
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 11. Colts by 10.5, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 5. Lions by 5, Over/Under 46.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 4. Chiefs by 3.5, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 54
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4. Buccaneers by 3.5, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 16
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 8. Steelers by 7.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 5. Rams by 4.5, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 11
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5. 49ers by 4.5, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 48.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Sunday Game Predictions:
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 19
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 14
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 11. Patriots by 10.5, Over/Under 50.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 4. Seahawks by 3.5, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears by 3, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1. Browns by 1, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 18
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 11. Colts by 10.5, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 5. Lions by 5, Over/Under 46.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 4. Chiefs by 3.5, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 54
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4. Buccaneers by 3.5, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 16
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 8. Steelers by 7.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 5. Rams by 4.5, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 11
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5. 49ers by 4.5, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 48.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Thursday Night Football - Prediction and Intro to Prediction Systems
IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!
The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion Baltimore Ravens battle the Denver Broncos on the airy heights of a mile-high stadium.
Baltimore
Denver
Now, on with the predictions! For every NFL game this season, I will post predictions based on Creative Misfortune's Points-Per-Yard formulas. Two variations of this formula will be used. One based on overall team performance and another based on how well each team does in their home and away games. But what fun would it be to just pick games based on these formulas in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against?
It is very difficult, traditionally, for any prediction system to hit 70% accuracy or more just picking the winners of NFL games - one of the reasons the NFL is such a popular sport. However, Vegas has a pretty good rate picking winners of games (though never quite hits the 70% mark) just based on who their favorites are and even blindly picking the home team results in a better than average success rate of around 57%, but that approach, again, will never produce success over 70% of the time.
To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems, with the goal of finding a somewhat simple formula that can hit the magical 70% accuracy mark:
First, the Creative Misfortune formula systems -
Creative Misfortune's Overall Points-Per-Yard Pick – These picks are based on a Points-Per-Yard formula I developed that proved to be quite successful in 2009, but fell short of my expectations in 2010. 2011 had modest results, matching the Vegas success rate. One more season of predictions should help determine how accurate (or not) Creative Misfortune's Points-Per-Yard formula is.
Creative Misfortune's Home & Away Points-Per-Yard Pick – A new variation of the Overall Points-Per-Yard formula, the Home & Away Points-Per-Yard formula will take into consideration where the game is being played and how well the two teams involved play "at home" or "on the road". Whereas the Overall PPY formula measures the overall strength of teams, the Home & Away PPY formula will add a second variable - where the game is played - into its calculations to try and increase the accuracy of the Overall PPY formula. This variation of the formula has never been tested over an entire season, so we'll see how it stands up to the pressure of picking games.
Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5.5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating or matching the spread). The Over/Under value is also included with each Vegas Lines pick to give you an idea of how high (or low) scoring Vegas thinks the game will be.
Second, the "blind" control systems -
The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means pickingKansas City to beat San Francisco
Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson ofIndiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland , Washington
Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict based on the NFL's default score of 20-17, i.e. Home Team wins by 3.
Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 18
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 9. Broncos by 9, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Tomorrow, predictions for the Sunday games slated for Week 1 NFL action...
The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion Baltimore Ravens battle the Denver Broncos on the airy heights of a mile-high stadium.
Now, on with the predictions! For every NFL game this season, I will post predictions based on Creative Misfortune's Points-Per-Yard formulas. Two variations of this formula will be used. One based on overall team performance and another based on how well each team does in their home and away games. But what fun would it be to just pick games based on these formulas in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against?
It is very difficult, traditionally, for any prediction system to hit 70% accuracy or more just picking the winners of NFL games - one of the reasons the NFL is such a popular sport. However, Vegas has a pretty good rate picking winners of games (though never quite hits the 70% mark) just based on who their favorites are and even blindly picking the home team results in a better than average success rate of around 57%, but that approach, again, will never produce success over 70% of the time.
To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems, with the goal of finding a somewhat simple formula that can hit the magical 70% accuracy mark:
First, the Creative Misfortune formula systems -
Creative Misfortune's Overall Points-Per-Yard Pick – These picks are based on a Points-Per-Yard formula I developed that proved to be quite successful in 2009, but fell short of my expectations in 2010. 2011 had modest results, matching the Vegas success rate. One more season of predictions should help determine how accurate (or not) Creative Misfortune's Points-Per-Yard formula is.
Creative Misfortune's Home & Away Points-Per-Yard Pick – A new variation of the Overall Points-Per-Yard formula, the Home & Away Points-Per-Yard formula will take into consideration where the game is being played and how well the two teams involved play "at home" or "on the road". Whereas the Overall PPY formula measures the overall strength of teams, the Home & Away PPY formula will add a second variable - where the game is played - into its calculations to try and increase the accuracy of the Overall PPY formula. This variation of the formula has never been tested over an entire season, so we'll see how it stands up to the pressure of picking games.
Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5.5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating or matching the spread). The Over/Under value is also included with each Vegas Lines pick to give you an idea of how high (or low) scoring Vegas thinks the game will be.
Second, the "blind" control systems -
The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking
Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of
Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict based on the NFL's default score of 20-17, i.e. Home Team wins by 3.
Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 18
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 9. Broncos by 9, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Tomorrow, predictions for the Sunday games slated for Week 1 NFL action...
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Preseason (2013)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: NA)
Another year of rebuilding… even in a weaker division, the Chiefs will be hard pressed to climb out of the AFC cellar. Alex Smith may give them some stability at quarterback, but too many pieces are missing for KC to realistically challenge for the playoffs this season.
# 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: NA)
Far too many questions abound about the Jaguars heading into the season, not the least of which being the health of Maurice Jones-Drew. Without him at 100%, the Jaguars have no shot. With him at 100%, they barely have any in a stacked division.
# 30 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: NA)
The blur offense may work in college… Coach Kelly will have to prove it can work in the NFL in order for the Eagles to have any kind of success this year.
# 29 - New York Jets (previous: NA)
Quarterback carousels are never good, especially when none of the quarterbacks are worthwhile and the head coach has demonstrated little more than the ability to be a blowhard.
# 28 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: NA)
The Cardinals will be better, Fitgerald will catch a few more passes, but Arizona is the odd-team out in one of the NFL's toughest divisions.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Detroit Lions (previous: NA)
All the potential in the world will not translate into wins again this season.
# 26 - Oakland Raiders (previous: NA)
Having cut the great Chris Kluwe, how can this franchise hope to compete when it will be punting more than most other teams in the league?
# 25 - Tennessee Titans (previous: NA)
Can Chris Johnson hit 2,500 yards before Adrian Peterson? Doubtful, but he will have to get pretty close to that number if Tennessee is going to be at all relevant this year.
# 24 - Buffalo Bills (previous: NA)
Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, they could very well surprise some people and steal some games in the AFC East.
# 23 - Miami Dolphins (previous: NA)
Losing Dustin Keller was a big blow, but even with him, who knows how efficiently the Dolphins could have moved the ball on offense. Defense will win games for them, if there are any to be won.
# 22 - Cleveland Browns (previous: NA)
Like the Cardinals, the Browns will be better this year, but they are once again the forgotten team in the tough AFC Central division.
# 21 - St. Louis Rams (previous: NA)
Creative Misfortune's surprise team of 2013. Will they make the playoffs? No, but they will have a say in who gets there.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Carolina Panthers (previous: NA)
The Panthers will continue to struggle with inconsistent performance, despite another great season from Cam Newton.
# 19 - New Orleans Saints (previous: NA)
All offense and absolutely no defense. Hard to win games week in and week out when your offense has to light up the scoreboard and put up 40+ points just to have a chance to win.
# 18 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: NA)
2012's playoff appearance was a fluke created by Adrian Peterson's sheer tenacity… That performance will be difficult to repeat this season, especially with the resurgence of the Bears and the Packers.
# 17 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: NA)
A young team two years ago that suffered a sophomore slump in 2012. Hard to say which way the Buccaneers will go in 2013. For now, let's just say they have potential.
# 16 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: NA)
Constantly underachieving, despite the star power on this roster. Will 2013 be any different? Recent history says 8-8 and a missed opportunity to make the playoffs is what should be expected from the Cowboys once again this season.
# 15 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: NA)
The defending Super Bowl Champions… and I don't see them even making the playoffs. Not sure why, just a gut feeling.
# 14 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: NA)
When I think of an aging team, I think of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Is there still some fight left in these old dogs? Absolutely… but injuries, more than their opponents, will determine if the Steelers make the playoffs in 2013.
# 13 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: NA)
Andrew Luck proved he could do it. Watch out for a sophomore slump… his numbers will be good, but I question the ability of the Colts in general to play over their heads again this season like they did last year en route to the playoffs.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: NA)
AFC Central champions… this pick seemed so "out there" a week or two ago, but now a lot of people have hopped on Cincinnati's bandwagon. That doesn't bode well for a franchise that has not traditionally thrived under pressure.
# 11 - Green Bay Packers (previous: NA)
These aren't the Super Bowl champion Packers of a few years ago, but Rodgers can still throw the ball and the defense can still stop people. If they ever develop a running game, they could be nigh unstoppable, especially once the weather turns for the worse late in the year.
# 10 - Washington Redskins (previous: NA)
RGIII is for real. Shanahan has done everything he can to keep him healthy. Now it's up to the young quarterback to learn the fine art of sliding and sneaking out of bounds before he ends another season early because of injury.
# 9 - San Diego Chargers (previous: NA)
Often overlooked lately, the Chargers will be far more competitive this season than a lot of people believe. With all the expectations on the Broncos to carry the division, San Diego can relax and do what they need to do to sneak into the playoffs.
# 8 - Chicago Bears (previous: NA)
The Monsters of the Midway are without Brian Urlacher, but that won't change how they play defense. And with the offense coming together, the Bears will definitely be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.
# 7 - New York Giants (previous: NA)
I can't figure these guys out and nobody else can either, which is why they will most likely finish the season as division champions once again.
# 6 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: NA)
Last year was their year and the Falcons missed out. The window of opportunity has not closed completely on Atlanta, but there are still so many post-season questions that have to be answered before anybody will give Matt Ryan and Company the benefit of the doubt.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: NA)
The 49ers look about as impressive as a team can look coming out of the preseason. If it weren't for the Seahawks, they'd run away with their division.
# 4 - Houston Texans (previous: NA)
Now or never for the Texans. No other franchise has as big of a "do or die" label associated with it this season.
# 3 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: NA)
A Super Bowl favorite of many, I am still not convinced. If Seattle can wrest the division title from the 49ers, they certainly have a shot to make it to the big dance next February.
# 2 - New England Patriots (previous: NA)
Despite all the off-field distractions and the on-field question marks, you just know the Patriots are coming into the 2013 season ready to play the game their way. Playing in one of the league's weakest divisions doesn't hurt their chances to claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, either.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: NA)
Manning is back… and could have been even more so last year if Denver's defense hadn't let him down. Could another playoff battle between Brady and Manning be in the cards? I certainly wouldn't complain if these two Hall of Fame quarterbacks met one last time with the AFC Championship at stake.
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ Preseason
New England Patriots
Check back tomorrow for week 1 predictions.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: NA)
Another year of rebuilding… even in a weaker division, the Chiefs will be hard pressed to climb out of the AFC cellar. Alex Smith may give them some stability at quarterback, but too many pieces are missing for KC to realistically challenge for the playoffs this season.
# 31 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: NA)
Far too many questions abound about the Jaguars heading into the season, not the least of which being the health of Maurice Jones-Drew. Without him at 100%, the Jaguars have no shot. With him at 100%, they barely have any in a stacked division.
# 30 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: NA)
The blur offense may work in college… Coach Kelly will have to prove it can work in the NFL in order for the Eagles to have any kind of success this year.
# 29 - New York Jets (previous: NA)
Quarterback carousels are never good, especially when none of the quarterbacks are worthwhile and the head coach has demonstrated little more than the ability to be a blowhard.
# 28 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: NA)
The Cardinals will be better, Fitgerald will catch a few more passes, but Arizona is the odd-team out in one of the NFL's toughest divisions.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Detroit Lions (previous: NA)
All the potential in the world will not translate into wins again this season.
# 26 - Oakland Raiders (previous: NA)
Having cut the great Chris Kluwe, how can this franchise hope to compete when it will be punting more than most other teams in the league?
# 25 - Tennessee Titans (previous: NA)
Can Chris Johnson hit 2,500 yards before Adrian Peterson? Doubtful, but he will have to get pretty close to that number if Tennessee is going to be at all relevant this year.
# 24 - Buffalo Bills (previous: NA)
Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, they could very well surprise some people and steal some games in the AFC East.
# 23 - Miami Dolphins (previous: NA)
Losing Dustin Keller was a big blow, but even with him, who knows how efficiently the Dolphins could have moved the ball on offense. Defense will win games for them, if there are any to be won.
# 22 - Cleveland Browns (previous: NA)
Like the Cardinals, the Browns will be better this year, but they are once again the forgotten team in the tough AFC Central division.
# 21 - St. Louis Rams (previous: NA)
Creative Misfortune's surprise team of 2013. Will they make the playoffs? No, but they will have a say in who gets there.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Carolina Panthers (previous: NA)
The Panthers will continue to struggle with inconsistent performance, despite another great season from Cam Newton.
# 19 - New Orleans Saints (previous: NA)
All offense and absolutely no defense. Hard to win games week in and week out when your offense has to light up the scoreboard and put up 40+ points just to have a chance to win.
# 18 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: NA)
2012's playoff appearance was a fluke created by Adrian Peterson's sheer tenacity… That performance will be difficult to repeat this season, especially with the resurgence of the Bears and the Packers.
# 17 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: NA)
A young team two years ago that suffered a sophomore slump in 2012. Hard to say which way the Buccaneers will go in 2013. For now, let's just say they have potential.
# 16 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: NA)
Constantly underachieving, despite the star power on this roster. Will 2013 be any different? Recent history says 8-8 and a missed opportunity to make the playoffs is what should be expected from the Cowboys once again this season.
# 15 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: NA)
The defending Super Bowl Champions… and I don't see them even making the playoffs. Not sure why, just a gut feeling.
# 14 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: NA)
When I think of an aging team, I think of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Is there still some fight left in these old dogs? Absolutely… but injuries, more than their opponents, will determine if the Steelers make the playoffs in 2013.
# 13 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: NA)
Andrew Luck proved he could do it. Watch out for a sophomore slump… his numbers will be good, but I question the ability of the Colts in general to play over their heads again this season like they did last year en route to the playoffs.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: NA)
AFC Central champions… this pick seemed so "out there" a week or two ago, but now a lot of people have hopped on Cincinnati's bandwagon. That doesn't bode well for a franchise that has not traditionally thrived under pressure.
# 11 - Green Bay Packers (previous: NA)
These aren't the Super Bowl champion Packers of a few years ago, but Rodgers can still throw the ball and the defense can still stop people. If they ever develop a running game, they could be nigh unstoppable, especially once the weather turns for the worse late in the year.
# 10 - Washington Redskins (previous: NA)
RGIII is for real. Shanahan has done everything he can to keep him healthy. Now it's up to the young quarterback to learn the fine art of sliding and sneaking out of bounds before he ends another season early because of injury.
# 9 - San Diego Chargers (previous: NA)
Often overlooked lately, the Chargers will be far more competitive this season than a lot of people believe. With all the expectations on the Broncos to carry the division, San Diego can relax and do what they need to do to sneak into the playoffs.
# 8 - Chicago Bears (previous: NA)
The Monsters of the Midway are without Brian Urlacher, but that won't change how they play defense. And with the offense coming together, the Bears will definitely be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.
# 7 - New York Giants (previous: NA)
I can't figure these guys out and nobody else can either, which is why they will most likely finish the season as division champions once again.
# 6 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: NA)
Last year was their year and the Falcons missed out. The window of opportunity has not closed completely on Atlanta, but there are still so many post-season questions that have to be answered before anybody will give Matt Ryan and Company the benefit of the doubt.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: NA)
The 49ers look about as impressive as a team can look coming out of the preseason. If it weren't for the Seahawks, they'd run away with their division.
# 4 - Houston Texans (previous: NA)
Now or never for the Texans. No other franchise has as big of a "do or die" label associated with it this season.
# 3 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: NA)
A Super Bowl favorite of many, I am still not convinced. If Seattle can wrest the division title from the 49ers, they certainly have a shot to make it to the big dance next February.
# 2 - New England Patriots (previous: NA)
Despite all the off-field distractions and the on-field question marks, you just know the Patriots are coming into the 2013 season ready to play the game their way. Playing in one of the league's weakest divisions doesn't hurt their chances to claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, either.
# 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: NA)
Manning is back… and could have been even more so last year if Denver's defense hadn't let him down. Could another playoff battle between Brady and Manning be in the cards? I certainly wouldn't complain if these two Hall of Fame quarterbacks met one last time with the AFC Championship at stake.
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ Preseason
New England PatriotsCheck back tomorrow for week 1 predictions.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
2013 NFL Predicted Standings
Below are Creative Misfortune's official predictions for how the AFC and NFC will shake out through the regular season and playoffs. Playoff predictions and Creative Misfortune's Super Bowl XLVIII favorites will be listed below the standings.
*These standings projections are based on Creative Misfortune's Home & Away Points Per Yard game prediction formula and each NFL team's projected strength of schedule for the 2013 season. Teams are listed in order of their projected finish within their division.
AFC East ~
New England Patriots *Division Champion, first-round bye and AFC playoff seed #1
Buffalo Bills
Miami
New York Jets
AFC North ~
Cincinnati Bengals *Division Champion and AFC playoff seed #4
Pittsburgh Steelers *Wild Card and AFC playoff seed #6
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
AFC South ~
Houston
Indianapolis
Tennessee
Jacksonville
AFC West ~
Denver Broncos *Division Champion, first-round bye and AFC playoff seed #2
San Diego Chargers *Wild Card and AFC playoff seed #5
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
NFC East ~
New York
Washington Redskins
Dallas
Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North ~
Chicago Bears *Division Champion, first-round bye and NFC playoff seed #2
Green Bay Packers *Wild Card and AFC playoff seed #6
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
NFC South ~
Atlanta Falcons *Division Champion and NFC playoff seed #3
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay
Carolina
NFC West ~
San Francisco 49ers *Division Champion, first-round bye and NFC playoff seed #1
Seattle Seahawks *Wild Card and NFC playoff seed #5
St. Louis Rams
Arizona Cardinals
Projected AFC Playoff Teams ~
Division Champions
#1New England Patriots
#2 Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Wild Cards
#5San Diego Chargers
Wild Card Games ~
#3 Houston over #6 Pittsburgh
#4Cincinnati over #5 San Diego
Divisional Games ~
#1 New England over #4 Cincinnati
#2Denver over #3 Houston
AFC Championship Game ~
#1New England over #2 Denver
Projected NFC Playoff Teams ~
Division Champions
#1San Francisco 49ers
#2Chicago Bears
#3Atlanta Falcons
#4New York Giants
Wild Cards
#5Seattle Seahawks
#6Green Bay Packers
Wild Card Games ~
#3Atlanta over #6 Green Bay
#4New York Giants over #5 Seattle
Divisional Games ~
#1San Francisco over #4 New York Giants
#3Atlanta over #2 Chicago
NFC Championship Game ~
#1San Francisco over #3 Atlanta
Creative Misfortune's Preseason Super Bowl XLVIII favorites ~
Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune's Preseason Power Rankings…
*These standings projections are based on Creative Misfortune's Home & Away Points Per Yard game prediction formula and each NFL team's projected strength of schedule for the 2013 season. Teams are listed in order of their projected finish within their division.
AFC East ~
New York Jets
AFC North ~
B
AFC South ~
AFC West ~
NFC East ~
NFC North ~
NFC South ~
New Orleans Saints
NFC West ~
Projected AFC Playoff Teams ~
Division Champions
#1
#2 Denver Broncos
Wild Cards
#5
Wild Card Games ~
#3 H
#4
Divisional Games ~
#1 N
#2
AFC Championship Game ~
#1
Projected NFC Playoff Teams ~
Division Champions
#1
#2
#3
#4
Wild Cards
#5
#6
Wild Card Games ~
#3
#4
Divisional Games ~
#1
#3
NFC Championship Game ~
#1
Creative Misfortune's Preseason Super Bowl XLVIII favorites ~
New England Patriots
vs
San Francisco 49ers
Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune's Preseason Power Rankings…
Monday, September 2, 2013
"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." 2013 Season Preview
Fantasy football is a juggernaut industry now. For better or worse, players are called out by fans for their inability to achieve greater stat lines. Who cares if you won or lost? Why didn’t you gain a few extra yards or get that third touchdown, or, most egregious of all, why did you get hurt in the first quarter?
Arian Foster, star running back of the Houston Texans, has expressed his frustration with fantasy football fans “concerned” about his injury via his Twitter account. Kurt Warner, one of the greatest comeback players in NFL history, once admitted to Peter King a small part of the reason he decided to retire was the emphasis on his individual stats from a fantasy perspective, regardless of whether or not he led the Cardinals to victory.
As fantasy football has gained in popularity, so too has the complexity and realness of fantasy leagues. Many custom leagues now strive for an NFL feel by having keepers, salary caps, etc. Yet these rosters will always fail to have that “real” NFL feeling to them, because they are All-Pro teams.
Actual football teams, however, do not consist of All-Pro talent at every roster spot. Football is much more of a team sport. Can you name a team that ever won the Super Bowl by “buying” an NFL championship? You can’t. In fact, the opposite tends to happen. Just look at Exhibit A – the Washington Redskins of recent years.
Since the NFL is such a team sport, and fantasy football is anything but a team game, I wondered what would happen if real NFL games were decided by typical fantasy football scoring and rules. Will the dominate teams that challenge for the real Super Bowl by mixing and matching players to get the best possible outcome fair as well in a fantasy season where they get no points if their third string running back scores the TD or they only get points for the quarterback’s TD pass, but not for the fourth-string receiver who caught it?
In 2010 and 2011, The Art of Creative Misfortune ran a fantasy football season based on the NFL schedule to figure out how the season would turn out if real football used fantasy football scoring. The results were quite interesting. Neither of those Fantasy Bowl championship games featured teams that went on to play in the Super Bowl. In fact, none of the teams made the real playoffs, despite their statistical prowess.
Will such a disconnect hold true during a third season of “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…”?
Come week 16, we will know for certain when Fantasy Bowl III is played. Will the title game feature teams strong enough to make the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl or will it feature the statistical juggernauts unable to win actual games consistently?
Creative Misfortune’s “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…” season will implement the following rules and scoring system, a variation of the one used by ESPN’s default public fantasy leagues.
Roster Details – Each team’s weekly fantasy starting players will be based on how much each player is used during a game by an NFL coach.
Team scores will be calculated based on ESPN’s scoring system (detailed below) and each starting lineup will consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense.
The lineups will be filled out based on the following criteria:
Scoring Details – Scoring for each fantasy game will be determined by a slight variation of ESPN’s default fantasy scoring system, listed below.
Offensive Scoring
1 pt for every 25 yards passing
1 pt for every 10 yards rushing or receiving
4 pts for every passing TD
6 pts for every rushing or receiving TD
2 pts for a two-point conversion (passing, rushing or receiving)
-2 pts for an interception or lost fumble
Defensive Scoring
1 pt for every sack
2 pts for an interception, a fumble recovery or a safety
6 pts for a defensive TD (interception or fumble)
6 pts for a kickoff, punt return or block kick return touchdown
A starting offensive player who returns a kick for a TD will not be given double points
10 pts if the defense allows 0 offensive points
7 pts if the defense allows 1-6 offensive points
4 pts if the defense allows 7-13 offensive points
1 pt if the defense allows 14-17 offensive points
0 pts if the defense allows 18-21 offensive points
-1 pt if the defense allows 22-27 offensive points
-4 pt if the defense allows 28-34 offensive points
-7 pts if the defense allows 35-45 offensive points
-10 pts if the defense allows 46+ offensive points
Kicking Scoring
1 pt for each PAT
3 pts for any field goal between 0-39 yards
4 pts for any field goal between 40-49 yards
5 pts for any field goal 50+ yards
-1 pt for any missed field goal
Season Schedule – The Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football regular season will last the first 12 weeks of the 2013 NFL schedule. Standings and game results will be updated every Wednesday. The playoffs begin Week 13 and culminate in Week 16 with a championship game.
Weeks 1-12: Regular Season Games
Week 13: Wild Card Playoff Games
Week 14: Divisional Playoff Games*
Week 15: Championship Playoff Games
Week 16: Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl II
Teams will qualify for the fantasy playoffs exactly the same way they qualify in the NFL (the four division champions and the two teams with the best record who did not win their division will qualify in each conference).
*To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, ifIndianapolis
Since there is no bye week between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune’s predictions for the NFL standings and playoff teams...
Arian Foster, star running back of the Houston Texans, has expressed his frustration with fantasy football fans “concerned” about his injury via his Twitter account. Kurt Warner, one of the greatest comeback players in NFL history, once admitted to Peter King a small part of the reason he decided to retire was the emphasis on his individual stats from a fantasy perspective, regardless of whether or not he led the Cardinals to victory.
As fantasy football has gained in popularity, so too has the complexity and realness of fantasy leagues. Many custom leagues now strive for an NFL feel by having keepers, salary caps, etc. Yet these rosters will always fail to have that “real” NFL feeling to them, because they are All-Pro teams.
Actual football teams, however, do not consist of All-Pro talent at every roster spot. Football is much more of a team sport. Can you name a team that ever won the Super Bowl by “buying” an NFL championship? You can’t. In fact, the opposite tends to happen. Just look at Exhibit A – the Washington Redskins of recent years.
Since the NFL is such a team sport, and fantasy football is anything but a team game, I wondered what would happen if real NFL games were decided by typical fantasy football scoring and rules. Will the dominate teams that challenge for the real Super Bowl by mixing and matching players to get the best possible outcome fair as well in a fantasy season where they get no points if their third string running back scores the TD or they only get points for the quarterback’s TD pass, but not for the fourth-string receiver who caught it?
In 2010 and 2011, The Art of Creative Misfortune ran a fantasy football season based on the NFL schedule to figure out how the season would turn out if real football used fantasy football scoring. The results were quite interesting. Neither of those Fantasy Bowl championship games featured teams that went on to play in the Super Bowl. In fact, none of the teams made the real playoffs, despite their statistical prowess.
Will such a disconnect hold true during a third season of “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…”?
Come week 16, we will know for certain when Fantasy Bowl III is played. Will the title game feature teams strong enough to make the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl or will it feature the statistical juggernauts unable to win actual games consistently?
Creative Misfortune’s “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…” season will implement the following rules and scoring system, a variation of the one used by ESPN’s default public fantasy leagues.
Roster Details – Each team’s weekly fantasy starting players will be based on how much each player is used during a game by an NFL coach.
Team scores will be calculated based on ESPN’s scoring system (detailed below) and each starting lineup will consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense.
The lineups will be filled out based on the following criteria:
The Quarterback that starts the game will be the fantasy quarterback of record.
The two Running Backs who get the most carries (regardless of yards or TDs).
The three Wide Receivers or Tight End that catch the most passes (regardless of yards or TDs).
The Kicker that attempts the most field goals
Scoring Details – Scoring for each fantasy game will be determined by a slight variation of ESPN’s default fantasy scoring system, listed below.
Offensive Scoring
1 pt for every 25 yards passing
1 pt for every 10 yards rushing or receiving
4 pts for every passing TD
6 pts for every rushing or receiving TD
2 pts for a two-point conversion (passing, rushing or receiving)
-2 pts for an interception or lost fumble
Defensive Scoring
1 pt for every sack
2 pts for an interception, a fumble recovery or a safety
6 pts for a defensive TD (interception or fumble)
6 pts for a kickoff, punt return or block kick return touchdown
A starting offensive player who returns a kick for a TD will not be given double points
10 pts if the defense allows 0 offensive points
7 pts if the defense allows 1-6 offensive points
4 pts if the defense allows 7-13 offensive points
1 pt if the defense allows 14-17 offensive points
0 pts if the defense allows 18-21 offensive points
-1 pt if the defense allows 22-27 offensive points
-4 pt if the defense allows 28-34 offensive points
-7 pts if the defense allows 35-45 offensive points
-10 pts if the defense allows 46+ offensive points
Kicking Scoring
1 pt for each PAT
3 pts for any field goal between 0-39 yards
4 pts for any field goal between 40-49 yards
5 pts for any field goal 50+ yards
-1 pt for any missed field goal
Season Schedule – The Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football regular season will last the first 12 weeks of the 2013 NFL schedule. Standings and game results will be updated every Wednesday. The playoffs begin Week 13 and culminate in Week 16 with a championship game.
Weeks 1-12: Regular Season Games
Week 13: Wild Card Playoff Games
Week 14: Divisional Playoff Games*
Week 15: Championship Playoff Games
Week 16: Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl II
Teams will qualify for the fantasy playoffs exactly the same way they qualify in the NFL (the four division champions and the two teams with the best record who did not win their division will qualify in each conference).
*To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, if
Since there is no bye week between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune’s predictions for the NFL standings and playoff teams...
Friday, August 30, 2013
Welcome to the Art of Creative Misfortune's Third Season!
Welcome back to the third season of Creative Misfortune! What is Creative Misfortune you ask?
For those of you new to these pages, Creative Misfortune, which finds its inspiration from the German phrase Schadenfreude, is all about taking your game to the next level in a creative way that brings misfortune to your opponents.
Here, at The Art of Creative Misfortune, we talk about football played by the great and infamous teams that make up the National Football League. Other blogs and sports pages will unduly praise teams within the league, while always ripping select others, despite their victories. Here every team will be called to task for their misfortune, or lack thereof.
Upon these pages, sarcasm will be read, games will be predicted, success and failure by each team will be reflected in weekly power rankings and the third annual, alternate-reality Creative Misfortune "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season will crown its Fantasy Bowl III champion. Will the New Orleans Saints be able to defend their 2011 title or will the numbers work against them as the 2013 season plays itself out?
Come and enjoy the football season along with the rest of us. It’s been a long summer filled with the uncertainty and preseason games, but now real games are just around the corner.
Kick back, get your popcorn ready... and if you stick around and find that your beloved team is skewered for its lack of creativity on any given Sunday, take heart, because your team will not be the only one basking in misfortune’s glory!
Upcoming Schedule of Events:For those of you new to these pages, Creative Misfortune, which finds its inspiration from the German phrase Schadenfreude, is all about taking your game to the next level in a creative way that brings misfortune to your opponents.
Here, at The Art of Creative Misfortune, we talk about football played by the great and infamous teams that make up the National Football League. Other blogs and sports pages will unduly praise teams within the league, while always ripping select others, despite their victories. Here every team will be called to task for their misfortune, or lack thereof.
Upon these pages, sarcasm will be read, games will be predicted, success and failure by each team will be reflected in weekly power rankings and the third annual, alternate-reality Creative Misfortune "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season will crown its Fantasy Bowl III champion. Will the New Orleans Saints be able to defend their 2011 title or will the numbers work against them as the 2013 season plays itself out?
Come and enjoy the football season along with the rest of us. It’s been a long summer filled with the uncertainty and preseason games, but now real games are just around the corner.
Kick back, get your popcorn ready... and if you stick around and find that your beloved team is skewered for its lack of creativity on any given Sunday, take heart, because your team will not be the only one basking in misfortune’s glory!
The third season of Creative Misfortune kicks off on Labor Day when I preview this season of "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring...".
Tuesday, September 3rd - standings predictions for all NFL teams, broken down by conference and division.
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings for 2013 make their debut on Wednesday, September 4th, ranking all NFL teams into one of five power classes -
The Creative Elite ~ *Wielding misfortune at its finest
The Fortunate Seven ~ *The best of what’s left
The Remarkably Average ~ *Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
The Creatively Challenged ~ *Folly remains ever their mistress
The Forked Few ~ *Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
On Thursday, September 5th, the NFL's regular season officially starts and so does Creative Misfortune's suite of game predictions. Points per Yard Formulas, Vegas Lines and the control system picks (Best Record and Home Team Wins) all will have their prognostication skills tested this season, starting with the battle between the Ravens and the Bronocs to kick off the 2013 season.
Once the Regular Season is under way, standard content will appear each week.
Mondays will feature predictions for the Monday Night Games.
Tuesdays will be a Creative Misfortune free for all with Curious Matters, Awards of Misfortune and other random blog content. It's best not to have any expectations.
Wednesdays will be dedicated to the "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." game results as teams fight their way through a statistical gauntlet en route to Fantasy Bowl III.
On Thursdays, Creative Misfortune Power Rankings! This season expect more movie quote themed rankings following the success of the Rocky rankings from year's past. The Creative Misfortune Super Bowl favorite through the current week will also be announced. Note: Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
Thursdays will also feasture predictions later in the day for any Thursday Night Games on the NFL schedule.
Fridays will round out the week, as they often do, with weekend game predictions detailing which teams each prediction system thinks you should look for in the victory column come Sunday.
Welcome back to another great season of Creative Misfortune!
Enjoy your holiday weekend!
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