Super Bowl XLVI Preview - New England's Offense vs New York's Defense

The New England Patriots are a team that crushes their opponent's spirit by scoring 35+ points a game. Few teams have won as often as the Patriots over the past decade - or by such outrageous, obnoxious numbers. Tom Brady can pick apart a defense like few other quarterbacks in NFL history. His ability to read a defense and know exacly where to go each and every play will force New York's secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are among the many, versatile weapons Brady has at his disposal.

While the Patriots are not known for their ability to run the football, their offensive line has managed to stay reasonably healthy this season and has kept aggressive defenses from wrecking havoc with the timing of their passing game.

The New York Giants defense has played lights out football during their run through the playoffs. Just as versatile on defense as the Patriots are on offense, the Giants' defensive front seven look to completely disrupt the high-powered New England attack. If New York's defense can slow down the Patriots enough to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will be able to give Eli Manning a fighting chance to keep pace with Tom Brady. The Giants can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Patriots if their offense can give them a two-score lead.

Super Bowl XLVI Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Patriots Offense vs	Giants Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	188	144
Rushing Yards	2006	2301	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.094	0.063	0.079
At their Best (DEF worst)	183 yards	205 yards	194 yards = 15.3 pts = 15 pts
2011 Average	111 yards	121 yards	116 yards = 9.2 pts = 9 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	43 yards	49 yards	46 yards = 3.6 pts = 4 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	363	263
Passing Yards	5681	4684	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.064	0.056	0.060
At their Best (DEF Worst)	516 yards	372 yards	444 yards = 26.7 pts = 27 pts
2011 Average	316 yards	247 yards	282 yards = 16.9 pts = 17 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	170 yards	101 yards	136 yards = 8.1 pts   =   8 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	15 pts + 27 pts	42
2011 Average	9 pts + 17 pts	26
At their Worst	4 pts +   8 pts	12

Projected Super Bowl XLVI Score for the New England Patriots: 27 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the New York Giants offense compares to the New England Patriots defense. Will the numbers for the Giants put them over the 27 points the Patriots are projected to score?

The Curious Matter of the NFL’s Pro Bowl

***Note of Misfortune: Below post updated from original for the 2011 Season.***

The NFL kicks off its annual all-star game – the AFC-NFC Pro Bowl – on Sunday evening beneath the warmth of Hawaii’s winter sun. The game itself is little more than a glorified scrimmage that means even less than a preseason game. I personally would much rather see if the rookie linebacker taken in the fourth round of the draft will be able to add much-needed depth to my favorite team’s roster than watch my team’s star running back risk unnecessary injury while carrying the ball 15 times in a pointless exhibition game.

The Pro Bowl is played simply as another means to get more money from fans without providing any real entertainment. Players saddled with the “Pro Bowl” honor, as voted by fans after only three quarters of the season have been played, are expected to make the trip to Hawaii unless still recovering from an injury or having made it to the Super Bowl. Despite this, every year several replacement players are named to the team rosters – check out this season’s list here - for players not making the trip to Honolulu. How exciting can the game be when the star players of the league – the true All-Pros – avoid the game like the plague if even slightly nicked up?

These same stars will still gladly embrace the “Pro Bowl” label for contract and endorsement purposes. Getting named to the Pro Bowl is far more significant than actually playing in the Pro Bowl. Nobody cares if the player actually made the trip to Hawaii, let alone if they were awarded the game’s MVP award. As if injured players missing the game weren’t enough, the All-Star talent pool is further diluted now that the game is played one week before the Super Bowl instead of one week afterward. No Pro Bowlers from either the New England Patriots or the New York Giants will take part in the Pro Bowl festivities. Focused on their sport’s ultimate prize, as they should be, the exhibition game truly becomes a meaningless endeavor.

The NFL should do away with the Pro Bowl game, plain and simple. All-Star games in other, less violent sports, like basketball and baseball, are fun events (though don’t get me started on MLB’s inane decision to determine home-field advantage in the World Series based on the winner of their exhibition contest). However, football players, more so than any other major sport, are closer to being one play away from a career-ending injury. When careers are so short to begin with, why should the NFL risk further damaging their players? Without the players, there is no league of any significance, a fact the owners should remember as they continue to debate a lockout in the coming months.

The league has made it a point of emphasis this season to penalize and fine players for late hits and to sit down players still suffering from the after-effects of concussions quite common in the violent game. The NFL should take their publicly-voiced concern one step further and do away with the Pro Bowl entirely.

But since the game will still be played, here is my prediction of Creative Misfortune:

American Football Conference 38

National Football Conference   44

I, however, will not be watching this weekend.

Next week, Super Bowl XLVI hype gets underway in earnest...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Championship Round (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVI! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 2 - New York Giants (previous: 3)
                    Like back in 2007, the Giants have nothing to lose and have been playing in survival mode since late in the regular season. Nobody will be surprised if they knock off the Patriots again, just like nobody will be surprised if the Patriots crush them on the biggest stage. With nothing to lose, teams often find a way to win.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 1)
                    Tom Brady now has the chance to become the all-time winningest quarterback in playoff history and also has the chance to win his fourth Super Bowl title, further separating himself from the other quarterbacks of his era. All he has to do is get past a scary good defensive front that has keyed three straight road victories in the playoffs. But how sweet would revenge be for the Patriots if they won their fourth Super Bowl title avenging their loss in Super Bowl XLII?



Post-Championship Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - No team ranked fell in the rankings this week.


The Biggest Movers - New York Giants (+1)


Maintaining The Status Quo - New England Patriots (1)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Championship Games

New England Patriots


Check back on Friday for a note about this weekend's upcoming Pro Bowl.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Championship Weekend (2011)

And then there were four...

Sunday Championship Game Predictions:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England Patriots by 8. The Patriots won't score 45 against the Ravens, but their offense should put up more points than Baltimore's offense will be able to match.
     Scottie V's Pick: New England Patriots by 4. Is Joe Flacco easy to rattle? Don't necessarily think so, but I do think the Patriots will have too much offense for the Ravens to keep up.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 7, Over/Under 50.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 14-3.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3.


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 4. San Francisco's defense is even more hard-nosed and stubborn than New York's. I expect the 49ers to win in a close defensive battle. 7-3 is not out of the question, no matter how nice the weather is in California.
     Scottie V's Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. All the talk this has been about the Giants and how they've caught fire at just the right time… This Candlestick crowd will absolutely be on fire and the Niners have had a whole season's worth of momentum.
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers by 2.5, Over/Under 42.
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 14-3.
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3.


Check back next week for post championship game power rankings and a discussion of the NFL's Pro Bowl...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Divisional Round (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVI! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged, The Remarkably Average and The Fortunate Seven. They know what they've done.


The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 4 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 5)
                    The Ravens may have the defense to stop the Patriots… but they don't have the offense to do much more than grind out a 17-14 victory.

     # 3 - New York Giants (previous: 7)
                    The Giants are this season's version of the 2010 Packers. How fitting is it that they ruined Green Bay's championship hopes? If they win in San Francisco, they will be able to relive either their greatest Super Bowl triumph or their worst Super Bowl failure. Either way, I'm sure there will be a story in there somewhere.

     # 2 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 4)
                    San Francisco has gone back to the basics of fundamental football and the 49ers sit just one game away from another Super Bowl appearance. If their defense can frustrate the Giants like their offense might be frustrated by the Giants' defense, we could be in for a scintillating 6-3 game.

     # 1 - New England Patriots (previous: 3)
                    Is it just me or did Tom Brady come out against Denver in full on F-U mode? He played cold-blooded... upset that in the year he breaks Dan Marino's passing record, Drew Brees broke it better... when he played lights out during the regular season, Aaron Rodgers - star of the fallen Packers - will most likely win the MVP award... despite winning three Super Bowls already, nary a word was said about him leading up to the match up against the Broncos - it was all Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. A record six touchdown passes later, five in the first half, and suddenly Brady was back in the spotlight and nothing but questions surrounded Tebow's future in the NFL. Unless his defense fails him, a la Green Bay and New Orleans, Brady will likely lead the Patriots to a fourth Super Bowl title.



Post-Divisional Round Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - No team ranked fell in the rankings this week.


The Biggest Movers - New York Giants (+4), New England Patriots (+2), San Francisco 49ers (+2), Baltimore Ravens (+1)


Maintaining The Status Quo - No teams maintained their ranking from last week.


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Divisonal Games

New England Patriots


Check back on Friday for Championship Game predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Divisional Weekend (2011)

As Winter finally starts to settle in, only 8 teams remain. Who will move one step closer to Super Bowl glory?


Saturday Divisional Game Predictions:

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. The Saints have been on a collision course with the Packers since the first week of the season.
     Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. Seems the popular pick is the Niners in this one, but I just think the Saints have too much firepower, not to mention post-season experience.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4. Saints by 3.5, Over/Under 47.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 14-3.
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3.


Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England Patriots by 14. In this Good vs Evil matchup, Evil has home field advantage.
     Scottie V's Pick: New England Patriots by 13. I'd love for Tebow to take his boys to the AFC Championship, but I think the Pats D will play a more conservative game plan than the Steelers did and force Tebow to chip away down the field… Don't think this is his strong point.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 14. Patriots by 13.5, Over/Under 50.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 13-3.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3.


Sunday Divisional Game Predictions:

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 2. I have a feeling this game won’t be pretty and that Baltimore will pull away in the end.
     Scottie V's Pick: Houston Texans by 3. I'm not sure about this one, but I'm going with my heart… The Texans D is solid and the run game was impressive last week.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 8. Ravens by 7.5, Over/Under 35.5.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 12-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 11. Green Bay will not become the first 15-1 team to fail to reach the Conference Championship game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10. The Giants' Wild Card run is halted in Week 2 of the playoffs by the machine-like efficiency of the Packers.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Packers by 7.5, Over/Under 52.5.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 15-1.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3.



Check back next Wednesday for the post-Divisional Round Power Rankings.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Wild Card (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVI! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.



The Fortunate Three~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 8 - Denver Broncos (previous: 12)
                    Wait a minute! You mean Tebow can throw, too?

     # 7 - New York Giants (previous: 11)
                    Could the Giants become the first team to knock off a 15-1 team in the Divisional round? They already have the defeat of an 18-0 team in the Super Bowl on their resume.

     # 6 - Houston Texans (previous: 7)
                    Houston will need another strong defensive performance combined with a great day from Arian Foster if they hope to upset the Ravens at home.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 5)
                    Baltimore has had a week to rest up and now, with the Steelers eliminated, they don’t have to worry about facing their divisional rivals in the playoffs.

     # 4 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 3)
                    This weekend we will get to see just how good the 49ers defense really is. If they can hold Brees and Co to less than 24 points, San Francisco will have a chance to advance to their first championship game since the '90s.

     # 3 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
                    Is this weekend's game against Denver the epitome of a "Good vs Evil' matchup in the NFL?

     # 2 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 2)
                    The high-flying Saints have been perfect at home, but now we get to see what they can do outside, on grass, in front of a hostile crowd.

     # 1 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 1)
                    No team has ever finished the regular season 15-1 and lost their first game at home. It is hard to imagine this Packers team becoming the first in NFL history to do so.


Wild Card Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - San Francisco 49ers (-1)

The Biggest Movers - New York Giants (+4), Denver Broncos (+4), New England Patriots (+1), Houston Texans (+1)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Green Bay Packers (1), New Orleans Saints (2), Baltimore Ravens (5)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Wild Card Weekend

Green Bay Packers


Check back on Friday for Divisional Round predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2011)

The NFL Playoffs are here. Let's get WILD, everybody!


Saturday Wild Card Predictions:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Houston Texans by 5. It's been fun, Cinderella, but the Texans will figure out a way to win this game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Houston Texans by 4. The Texans D keeps the Bengals at bay and the home crowd is fired up for this one.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans by 3, Over/Under 39.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans better at 10-6.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3.


Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7. If the Lions couldn’t contain Matt Flynn, what makes you think they can contain Drew Brees?
     Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans Saints by 14. I don't think the Lions have what it takes to keep up with the New Orleans machine.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 11. Saints by 10.5, Over/Under 59.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 13-3.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3.


Sunday Wild Card Predictions:

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 4. The Falcons will capitalize on the Giants' mistakes and their running game will slow down New York's pash rush just enough.
     Scottie V's Pick: New York Giants by 3. Will the Giants make another Wild Card to Champion run? I don't think so, but I do see their momentum carrying them into next week.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 3. Giants by 3, Over/Under 47.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3. Falcons better at 10-6.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 11. Tebow time, though fun while it lasted, will finally come to an end.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 10. The Steelers are quite depleted this week and any sort of playoff run will need to be uphill… But I just don’t see Tebow being able to move the ball much against the Steel Curtain.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 9. Steelers by 8.5, Over/Under 34.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 12-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3.


Check back next Wednesday for the post-Wild Card Power Rankings.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Week 17 (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

Only the best teams still playing will continue to be ranked as we countdown to Super Bowl XLVI! Say so long to The Forked Few, The Creatively Challenged and The Remarkably Average. They know what they've done.


The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Denver Broncos (previous: 13)
                    Tebow has been instrumental in getting Denver to the playoffs, but a 7-3 loss to Kansas City in week 17 does little to inspire confidence in the Broncos with Pittsburgh coming to town.

     # 11 - New York Giants (previous: 11)
                    The Giants are the worst NFC East champion in recent memory, but if their defensive line can continue to wreck havoc with opposing offensive lines, they could upset some of the NFC's elite… if they can get by Atlanta this weekend.

     # 10 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 9)
                    Cinderella made it to the playoffs. Now we just have to figure out if she can dance.

     # 9 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 10)
                    Fully rested after their quick defeat of the Buccaneers, the Falcons should give the Giants all they can handle this weekend.

     # 8 - Detroit Lions (previous: 8)
                    The Lions go from facing Matt Flynn and his 6 TD performance to facing Drew Brees and his record-shattering season. That doesn’t look good for them on paper.

     # 7 - Houston Texans (previous: 7)
                    If ever a team has backed into the playoffs, the Texans definitely have. Now down to their 4th starting quarterback, Houston better play solid defense and run the ball effectively, otherwise they will be one-and-done in their first postseason apperance.

     # 6 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 6)
                    The strongest of the Wild Card teams, Pittsburgh looks to prove it by taking out the weakest of the Division champions.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 5)
                    The Ravens have a strong defense and home-field advantage unless they face the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. If they can avoid the Steelers they might just make it to the Super Bowl.

     # 4 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
                    Despite their defensive woes, the path to the AFC championship has to go through Foxboro.

     # 3 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 3)
                    The 49ers better pull the game film for the recent Chiefs-Packers game and make note of everything Kansas City did to derail the defending champs. San Francisco will need every one of those tricks if they are to have any chance of knocking off the Saints and the Packers. Chances are they will have to defeat both - or at least one - of those elite teams in order to get to the Super Bowl.

     # 2 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 2)
                    The Saints are the only NFC team that can match the Packers in a shoot-out, but they will have to win a couple road games on grass if they hope to return to the Super Bowl.

     # 1 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 1)
                    How scary are the Packers if their backup quarterback can go off against another playoff-caliber team for 480 yards and 6 TDs?


Week 17 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

The Biggest Movers - Atlanta Falcons (+1), Denver Broncos (+1)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Green Bay Packers (1), New Orleans Saints (2), San Francisco 49ers (3), New England Patriots (4), Baltimore Ravens (5), Pittsburgh Steelers (6), Houston Texans (7), Detroit Lions (8), New York Giants (11)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Week 17

Green Bay Packers


Check back on Friday for Wild Card Weekend game predictions.

Playoff Post Schedule

The playoff field is set and the fantasy football season has ended. Through the end of the season, The Art of Creative Misfortune will feature playoff power rankings on Wednesdays and game predictions on Fridays until the week of the Super Bowl.