Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2014)

The NFL playoffs are finally here. Let's get wild, everybody!

Wild Card Game Predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 7. Panthers by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.442
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.599
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.535
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.576
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next Thursday for Creative Misfortune's post-Wild Card round power rankings.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 11 (2014)

All systems struggled to perform in week 11 as NFL teams scrambled to maintain their position in the chase for playoff spots.

Almost all systems picked just 7 out of 13 games correctly this weekend, for an uninspiring 53.9% accuracy.

Only two systems did not finish the week picking 7 games correctly and those were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections. Both of those formulas only managed to pick 5 of the 13 games correctly, to finish with a terrible 38.5% accuracy.

All systems, except the blind Home Team Wins formula, favor the Pittsburgh Steelers to win tonight on the road.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 6. Steelers by 5.5, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.552 - 0.262
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 91-57
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3

Week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 7 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 7, the seventh week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Best overall picks of the week went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY and the blind Home Team Wins formulas. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 10 out of 14 games correctly (71.4%)

Almost all other systems picked a solid 9 out of 14 games correctly, for a very respectable 64.3% accuracy.

The blind Best Record Wins formula finished with the worst predictions of the week, only predicting 8 out of 14 games correctly for 57.1% accuracy, the traditional success rate for just picking the home team to win.

The prediction systems are split on tonight's matchup between Pittsburgh and Houston. Both Creative Misfortune's PPY formulas and the Pythagorean Theorem formula favor the Texans to win on the road. The Vegas Lines, Fantasy Projections, and the two blind pick systems favor the Steelers to prevail at home. It should be a good game that could go either way.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 44.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Houston Texans by 5. Houston Texans projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.556 - 0.433
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 77-63
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Both teams at 3-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3


Week 7 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 2 (2014)

After all the Ray Rice controversy this week, highlighting the Ravens on Thursday Night Football could be a double-edged sword for the NFL. I can only hope some good will come out of this situation and lead to players being held more accountable for their off-field actions.

With all the uncertainty surrounding the Steelers and Ravens in recent weeks, nobody seems to know who will win this game. Four prediction systems favor the Steelers, three favor the Ravens. No matter what happens, it should be another great game between these two black-and-blue division rivals.


Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 11. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.562 - 0.297
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 2. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 70-65
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 1-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 2 slate...

Season Recap - 2013 Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers



Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 2nd Place in the AFC North
2014 Draft Position: 15th

Preseason Ranking: 14

Week 1: Lost to the Tennessee Titans, 16-9
    Ranked - 28
    Injuries have already taken their toll on this aging team.

Week 2: Lost at the Cincinnati Bengals, 20-10
    Ranked - 30
    This team is old, injury-prone and just not executing.

Week 3: Lost to the Chicago Bears, 40-23
    Ranked - 30
    There were some bright spots on Monday night against the Bears, but those bright spots are easily forgotten once you see the huge number of points Chicago, a historical offensive juggernaut, put up against this once proud Steel Curtain.

Week 4: Lost at the Minnesota Vikings, 34-27
    Ranked - 30
    I cannot remember the Steelers playing this poorly… I'm sure they have, but Pittsburgh and 0-4 just doesn't feel right.

Week 5: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 30
    Did they get healthy during their bye week? Pittsburgh fans can only hope. A road trip to New York to face off against the bruising Jets will show whether or not the Steelers can save their season.

Week 6: Defeated the New York Jets, 19-6
    Ranked - 29
    The Steelers come out of the bye week and notch a solid victory on the road. It's still not too late for them to turn their season around.

Week 7: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 19-16
    Ranked - 27
    The Steelers are 2-0 coming out of their bye week after starting 0-4. That says a lot about their pride and character as a football team. It may not translate into a playoff run, but at least they will be good enough to have a say in who makes it to the second season.

Week 8: Lost at the Oakland Raiders, 21-18
    Ranked - 27
    Just when you think the Steelers have things figured out, they get run over by Terrelle Pryor and the Oakland Raiders.

Week 9: Lost at the New England Patriots, 55-31
    Ranked - 28
    The Steel Sieve gave up more points and more yards to the Patriots than to any other team in any other game in the history of this storied franchise. That has to feel good.

Week 10: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 23-10
    Ranked - 23
    Pittsburgh rebounds with a win after one of their worst defensive performances in franchise history.

Week 11: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 37-27
    Ranked - 24
    The Steelers are suddenly right back in the mix of the AFC Wild Card chase.

Week 12: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 27-11
    Ranked - 21
    After a very slow start, Pittsburgh has turned the corner and is now driving for a playoff spot. I doubt they can get there, though.

Week 13: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 22-20
    Ranked - 21
    GET OFF THE FIELD, TOMLIN!! Or, if you're there, at least tackle the guy. Geesh.

Week 14: Lost to the Miami Dolphins, 34-28
    Ranked - 22
    So much for a drive for the playoffs… Pittsburgh can start preparing for 2014.

Week 15: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 30-20
    Ranked - 20
    Huge win by the Steelers on Sunday night. The playoffs are still an outside possibility, but a lot will have to go their way the final two weeks of the season.

Week 16: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 38-31
    Ranked - 18
    The Steelers are in the playoffs as a wild card if they can win and Miami, Baltimore and San Diego all lose.

Week 17: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 20-7

Final Ranking: 15

Check back next week when the 2013 season recaps continue, featuring Creative Misfortune's favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys...

Season Recap - 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers

Final Record: 12-4 (0-1)
Finished: 2^nd Place in the AFC North; Lost in Wild Card Round
2012 Draft Position: 24^th

Preseason Ranking: 4

Week 1: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 35-7
    Ranked - 22
    The Steelers should be embarrassed by their performance on Sunday. I can’t remember the last time a Pittsburgh team looked so out of sync and was so easily manhandled by an opponent.

Week 2: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 24-0
    Ranked - 11
    The Seahawks were cooked before they ever left Seattle after the embarassment Pittsburgh suffered in Baltimore during week one. Since the Ravens stumbled, the division is once again a two-team race that won't be decided until November when Baltimore comes to town for round two.

Week 3: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 23-20
    Ranked - 10
    Note to self: Aged steel is still strong enough to win. It's been tempered by fire. Signed, The Steel Curtain.

Week 4: Lost at the Houston Texans, 17-10
    Ranked - 14
    Has age finally caught up with the Steelers? Injuries are starting to take their toll and the defense looked like it had lost a step against the fleet-footed Texans last week.

Week 5: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 38-17
    Ranked - 10
    I guess you don’t need a good, healthy foot in order to toss five touchdown passes against a hot defense. The Steelers, dead and nearly buried a week ago, suddenly have new life.

Week 6: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 17-13
    Ranked - 7     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Pittsburgh Fans: You're not the men we knew ten years ago. 
    Steelers Players: It's not the years... it's the mileage.

Week 7: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 32-20
    Ranked - 8
    Nobody was happier about the Ravens loss than the Steelers.

Week 8: Defeated the New England Patriots, 25-17
    Ranked - 10
    The Steelers have improved much of late. A victory over the Ravens will prove they are finally back for real and slingshot them into the elite among the AFC.

Week 9: Lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 23-20
    Ranked - 10
    Seriously? I always wondered what it would look like when a Steel Curtain shattered.

Week 10: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 24-17
    Ranked - 9
    The Steelers have decided not to qo quietly into the night.

Week 11: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 9
    The Steelers have the experience to emerge from their bye week ready to take control of the division back from Baltimore.

Week 12: Defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 13-9
    Ranked - 7
    An ugly win in Kansas City… but a win is a win this late in the season.

Week 13: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 35-7
    Ranked - 7
    Pittsburgh is quietly starting to dominate teams as they solidify their spot in the playoffs.

Week 14: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 14-3
    Ranked - 6
    Another solid, if not glamorous, division victory has kept Pittsburgh in the playoff chase. However, with Baltimore playing so well, the Steelers could just as easily finish the #1 overall seed or the #6 Wild Card.

Week 15: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 20-3
    Ranked - 7
    More than just the lights went out for Pittsburgh during last week's game in San Francisco.

Week 16: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 27-0
    Ranked - 6
    The only seeds the Steelers can't be are #4 and #6.

Week 17: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 13-9
    Ranked - 6
    The strongest of the Wild Card teams, Pittsburgh looks to prove it by taking out the weakest of the Division champions.

Wild Card Round: Lost at the Denver Broncos, 29-23


Final Ranking: 9


Tomorrow, the 2011 Denver Broncos...

Tournament of Past Champions ~ Championship Matchup

The two championship contenders - the Mythical bracket champion 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers and the Fabled bracket champion 1999 St. Louis Rams - have survived six rounds of intense, simulated action against the greatest of the great NFL champions of the past 70 years. Both teams have won games easily and both teams have also struggled to escape defeat by the slimmest of possible margins. But regardless of how they reached the championship game, they alone made it here while 126 other championship hopefuls fell by the wayside.

After all has been said and done, it is time for Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions to be done. Now, on a simulated neutral field, the Tournament of Past Champions Championship Matchup gets underway, featuring the 20-seeded 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers vs the 11-seeded 1999 St. Louis Rams.

First Quarter:

St. Louis received the opening kickoff and sent their quick strike offense on the field. After two outside runs by Marshall Faulk netted only three yards, their third offensive play showed everybody why they were the Greatest Show on Turf. Isaac Bruce blazed down the right sideline and Kurt Warner hit him in stride a full five yards clear of the Steelers secondary. Bruce crossed the goal line without being touched and the Rams took an early 7-0 lead on the 77-yard bomb.

Pittsburgh, rattled by the early score, but undeterred, put their power running game on display when they first touched the ball. The Steelers pounded the Rams and marched down the field on the strength of the O-Line and Franco Harris. Their long drive finally stalled inside the Rams 20-yard line. A field goal put the Steelers on the scoreboard, though they still trailed 7-3.

St. Louis countered with more precision passing and reached deep into Pittsburgh territory once again before they, too, kicked a field goal as the quarter ended.

End of First Quarter: St. Louis 10, Pittsburgh 3

Second Quarter:

The Steelers again marched the ball into field goal range on their first drive of the second quarter with another heavy dose of Franco Harris and some timely play-action passes to close the deficit to 10-6. Both offenses sputtered and traded punts following the Steelers score.

Late in the second quarter Warner finally got the Rams moving again and connected with Torry Holt on a quick slant that covered 17 yards for another St. Louis touchdown.

Down 17-6 at the two minute warning, Bradshaw managed to convert one first down for the Steelers, but three straight incompletions ended their drive. Warner kneeled down after a Steelers punt, content to take St. Louis into the locker room with the lead.

Halftime: St. Louis 17, Pittsburgh 6

Third Quarter:

After fiery halftime locker room speeches, the Steelers came out of the break loaded for Ram and immediately set to work. Punishing runs, play-action passes and a deep out route to Lynn Swann all contributed to a touchdown drive punctuated by Franco Harris to pull the Steelers within four points.

Still leading 17-13, the Rams offense struggled and failed to move the chains on their first second-half drive. The teams alternated punts until the Pittsburgh D picked off an errant Warner pass and returned the ball deep into Rams territory. Four plays later, the Steelers kicked another field goal and the quarter ended with St. Louis nursing the slimmest of leads.

End of Third Quarter: St. Louis 17, Pittsburgh 16

Fourth Quarter:

The fourth quarter continued the defensive standstill of the third quarter. Neither the Rams nor the Steelers were able to advance the ball past midfield. As the seconds ticked away, each team thwarted the other at every opportunity. With six minutes remaining in the game, still leading by one, St. Louis caught a break when Pittsburgh’s punt coverage broke down and Az-Zahir Hakim scampered 63 yards to the Steelers 27-yard line. Four plays later, with little over four minutes remaining, Kurt Warner hit Isaac Bruce for a 7-yard touchdown pass.

Pittsburgh received the ensuing kickoff, down 24-16, and set their passing game in motion. Lax zone coverage by the Rams allowed the Steelers to get across midfield in three quick plays. An incompletion stopped the clock just outside of two minutes. Steelers fans looked grim in the stands. Their team, down by eight, still needed to cover 34 yards to get into the end zone. A draw play to Franco Harris on second down netted Pittsburgh 12 yards and the two-minute warning came with 1:53 showing on the clock.

The Rams tightened their coverage and blitzed on first down, though Bradshaw read the blitz and hit Swann for a quick pickup of five yards. 1:37… 1:36… 1:35… The clock counted down. An incomplete fade pass to John Stallworth on second down stopped the clock at 1:24. Third down and five, a hitch to Tight End Bennie Cunningham netted a first down, but little else, and Pittsburgh was forced to take their final timeout with 57 seconds remaining, still 11 yards away from a touchdown and a possible game-tying two-point conversion.

Bradshaw missed on his first down pass and was forced to throw the ball away when flushed out of the pocket on second down. 31 seconds remained with the Steelers facing a long third down with no timeouts. Pittsburgh split Wide Receivers Stallworth and Swann out wide and then hit Franco Harris on a flare pass out of the backfield. Harris fought his way out of bounds at the four yard line.

Fourth down. 19 seconds remaining. Four yards from the end zone. Bradshaw took the snap, glanced left, and then fired the ball right to Stallworth. The ball hit Stallworth’s hands at the goal line just as Rams Cornerback Todd Lyght barreled into the fleet-footed receiver. The football caromed into the air and was corralled by Rams Linebacker London Fletcher in the end zone for a touchback.

Kurt Warner gathered the Rams offense at the 20-yard line, called for the final snap and ended the Championship Game with a kneeldown.   

Final Score: St. Louis 24, Pittsburgh 16

Congratulations to the

1999 St. Louis Rams.

Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions

Champion of Champions

Tomorrow, the final blog announcement of Creative Misfortune’s first season…

Tournament of Past Champions ~ Elite 4 Matchup – Battle of the ‘70s

Like the Green Bay Packers, the Mythical bracket champion 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers are quite familiar with championship games. The last of the great Steelers teams of the 70’s, the ’79 Steelers have alone among their franchise brethren emerged from the bracket competition of Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions. Led by an experienced Terry Bradshaw, the fleet-footed and powerful Franco Harris and a dominating defense, Pittsburgh fought their way through round after round of tournament action.

Entering the tournament feeling disrespected at being a 20-seed (earned by a less than scintillating 12-4 regular season record), the ’79 Steelers soon proved they were a team to be reckoned with. A dominating, opening round 26-17 victory over the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles gave way to a gut-check, 17-16 win over the 1992 Buffalo Bills- a matchup in which the Steelers only managed to win 8 of the 20 simulations outright.

Pittsburgh recovered in round three by knocking out the 1992 Dallas Cowboys (no less) in a 16-10 defensive battle. A Fortunate 16 round defeat of the 1963 San Diego Chargers propelled them into the Mythical bracket championship game against the veteran 1949 Philadelphia Eagles. 20 gritty simulations later, the ’79 Steelers walked away with a narrow 14-12 victory and moved on to face the 1977 Dallas Cowboys in the Elite 4.

For their part, the Dauntless bracket champion 1977 Dallas Cowboys came into the tournament seeded eighth and their defense made quick work of their first round opponent, the 1965 AFL Champion Buffalo Bills. At the final gun, the Cowboys moved onto round two with a 17-7 win. There they faced one of the fabled Cleveland teams of the late ‘40s, but Dallas handled the ’47 Browns easily, 14-10.

The undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins stood between the Cowboys and a spot in the Fortunate 16. Defense prevailed for Dallas again and the top-seeded Dolphins were undefeated no more- swept from the tournament by the score of 17-14. Following the victory over the Dolphins, the 1994 San Francisco 49ers ended up being a strong, yet beatable team, and Dallas advanced to the Dauntless bracket championship game with another 17-14 victory.

The 1967 Oakland Raiders remained Dallas’ last contest in bracket competition. Despite their offensive capabilities, the Cowboys shut down Oakland’s passing game to clinch the Dauntless bracket championship with a narrow 16-14 win.

Now, on a simulated neutral field, the second of the Elite 4 Tournament of Past Champions matchups gets underway, featuring the 20-seeded 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers vs the 8-seeded 1977 Dallas Cowboys.

First Quarter:

Pittsburgh took the opening kickoff and set out immediately to show the Dallas defense they weren’t afraid of them. Power runs, both inside and outside, kept the Cowboys guessing. A 20-yard play-action pass to Lynn Swann set the Steelers up for a field goal and they took an early 3-0 lead.

Dallas failed to move the ball in response and quarterback Roger Staubach was hit from behind and fumbled for the game’s first turnover. Four plays later Franco Harris pounded the ball in from the three-yard line and Pittsburgh maintained a solid, 10-0 lead as the first quarter came to a close.

End of First Quarter: Pittsburgh 10, Dallas 0

Second Quarter:

The Steelers defense continued to dominate and forced Dallas into three successive three-and-outs. By contrast, the Pittsburgh offense moved the ball at will against the Cowboys defense. A field goal early in the quarter expanded Pittsburgh’s lead to 13 and another with six minutes to go in the first half put the Steelers up 16-0. Dallas, however, refused to lie down before their foes.

Roger Staubach opened up Dallas’ two-minute drill early and hit seven straight passes before connecting with Drew Pearson on a fade route to the back corner of the end zone to give Dallas their first score of the game as the half ended.

Halftime: Pittsburgh 16, Dallas 7

Third Quarter:

The Cowboys received the second-half kickoff and went right back to work. The Steelers, suddenly unable to stop Dallas’ passing attack, fell back into nickel and dime coverages, but Staubach still carved them up with his precision passes. Seven minutes into the quarter, Staubach connected with Tight End Billy Joe Dupree across the middle for his second touchdown of the game. The Steelers defense walked off the field shouting at each other, angry that their early 16-0 lead had nearly been squandered.

The Steelers took possession of the ball and responded to the Cowboys score with a heavy dose of Franco Harris. The powerful running back moved the chains time and time again, helped by a few key play-action pass conversions on third down. The Cowboys defense looked winded as the third quarter came to a close, despite being down by only two points.

End of Third Quarter: Pittsburgh 16, Dallas 14

Fourth Quarter:

The Steelers kept their running game going into the fourth quarter and Dallas had no answer for their powerful rushing attack. Franco Harris broke two tackles in the middle of the line and bounced the ball to the outside where he scampered 24 yards for another touchdown. Dallas, down by two scores with time running out, went into hurry-up mode once again, but Pittsburgh’s relentless pass rush forced Staubach to scramble out of the pocket and throw the ball away. More incompletions led to a stalled Dallas drive and they punted with six minutes left to play.

Pittsburgh once again relied on the power of their offensive line and ended the game with kneel downs after they moved the chains three times against the winded Dallas defense.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 23, Dallas 14

Congratulations to the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers.

They will now face the 1999 St. Louis Rams to determine Creative Misfortune's Ultimate Champion of Past Champions.

Check back on Thursday to see which of these two great teams will emerge victorious in Creative Misfortune’s final Tournament of Past Champions matchup…

Season Recap - 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers

Final Record: 12-4 (2-1)

Finished: 1^st Place in the AFC North; Lost Super Bowl XLV

2011 Draft Position: 31^st

Preseason Ranking:   13
Preseason Letter of Misfortune (by Scottie V):

Hope springs eternal in Latrobe, PA. Despite an offseason of turmoil and bad pub, this too the Steelers will survive. It seems that every year I’m shocked and saddened to see some of their better players leave in pursuit of a bigger payday. I love (but perhaps the players don’t) how the Steelers’ organization sticks to its principles and seldom overpays its players. They accomplish more with a lower payroll than probably any other team in the league. Kind of reminds me of my favorite college team (except replace “payroll” with “stars”… don’t want to get anyone in trouble). “Hip, Hip, Hooray” for frugality!

Now, about that offseason of turmoil and bad pub. Ben Roethlisberger has undoubtedly soiled his reputation with these latest incidents. It is somewhat unclear exactly what happened with these ladies. We know for sure that, at best, Big Ben is Bigtime Careless. At worst, Big Ben is a Big Creepy Criminal. The truth is probably somewhere in between. On the football side of things, Ben and the Steelers have a suspension to worry about. On the human side of things (which I care a little more about), I hope the suspension is long enough to get Ben’s attention and have him re-think his life a bit. That being said, I really hope that about two weeks is long enough to do the trick!

Now, for a very illogical and bold prediction: Big Ben’s suspension will actually help the Steelers in the long run – hopefully this season, but if not, down the line. For too long, the Steelers have played down to their competition and I blame Ben for this – not directly, but indirectly. I think Ben’s penchant for leading the team to a dramatic comeback has subconsciously caused players to let their guard down, thinking that the offense can get it done at any given moment. Often they do, but sometimes the magic just isn’t there. I witnessed this first-hand last season when the Steelers played the Chiefs in Kansas City. Ugh. The biggest test of the first six games of the season will be when the Ravens come to town in Week 4. Big Ben will likely still be out of action, but fortunately the Steelers will have a raucous home field advantage. I like our chances.

If the Curtain can survive the first six weeks (five games, three of which at home) without Ben, it should benefit them for the rest of the season. Hopefully, that time can be spent establishing the ground game which has been atrocious at times the last couple seasons. I like what I see from Rashard Mendenhall, but he hasn’t been as much of a focus of the offense since they have a playmaker such as Big Ben at quarterback. The suspension will force the Steelers to look elsewhere for offense… and they will find it in Rashard. Defensively, the Steelers should be solid as usual. Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith are back in action (both missed most of last season) which will make the unit that much better.

By Steeler standards, the roster stayed relatively unscathed in the offseason. Losing Santonio Holmes will likely turn out to be an addition by subtraction scenario. The Willie Parker departure initially tugs at my heartstrings, but he’s been on the decline for a few years now. Deshea Townshend has been solid lately, but the Steelers seem to always find good corners to plug into their system… Perhaps Keenan Lewis will be next in line to step up? The addition and return of Antwaan Randle El adds some intangible flair to both the offense and special teams. Love cheering for that guy.

And let’s not forget the greatness of Steelers past whose shadows these modern day heroes are playing under. First the great - [EDITOR'S NOTE: Scottie V has gone where no fan should go, so, in the interest of brevity, I’m stepping in and fast-forwarding through his Letter a bit… Let’s see… two pages about the Steelers of the 70s… three pages cut extolling the virtues of Terry Bradshaw's intelligent commentary... fast forward... 6 Super Bowls, yadda, yadda, yadda... moving on to page 7... decal on only one side of the helmet, funny historical lesson, but no... page 10... in depth discussion of how the Steelers beat the Cowboys in two Super Bowls just to annoy me, absolutely not... fast forwarding to Super Bowl XXX, the only piece of Steeler history worth talking about... another two Super Bowl championships… yes, we understand you’ve won a few…oh, good, he’s finally wrapping things up…]

My Prediction, through Black-and-Gold Colored Lenses: In spite of Ben’s absence for the first few games of the season, the Steelers galvanize as an offensive unit and establish Rashard Mendenhall early, with him averaging over 100 yards per game. Big Ben returns in week 6 to lead this now fully operational offensive powerhouse. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North, sweeping both contests against their bitter rival, the Ravens. The world rejoices.

Week 1: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 15-9

Ranked – 7

Head and shoulders above the Falcons

Week 2: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 19-11

Ranked – 4

It doesn't matter how ugly the victory, just that it's a victory. A trip to undefeated Tampa Bay will help separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Week 3: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 38-13

Ranked – 1

Without Big Ben the Steelers have played lights out defensive football. Now throw in a little offense and Pittsburgh is nigh unstoppable. A tough division test against Baltimore looms where anything could happen.

Week 4: Lost to Baltimore Ravens, 17-14

Ranked – 9

3-1 without Roethlisberger is more than most fans hoped for.

Week 5: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 6

3-1 without Roethlisberger. Guess what? He's back.

Week 6: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 28-10

Ranked – 4

Big Ben is back and the Steelers win again.

Week 7: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 23-22

Ranked – 4

Sometimes good teams need to be lucky as well. The Steelers were lucky on Sunday.

Week 8: Lost at New Orleans Saints, 20-10

Ranked – 4

Despite the loss on the road, Pittsburgh will be in every game as long as their defense continues to hold up under fire.

Week 9: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-21

Ranked – 1

Offense, defense and special teams. The Steelers are winning with all facets of their game.

Week 10: Lost to New England Patriots, 39-26

Ranked – 8

The curse of Creative Misfortune's #1 ranking? Sorry about that, Steelers fans, but it's not my fault you can't beat Brady in the friendly confines of Heinz Field.

Week 11: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 35-3

Ranked – 5

Open-handed cheap shots aside, the Steelers recovered nicely from the embarrassing loss to the Patriots. A tune-up game against Buffalo will set the stage for Pittsburgh's week 13 tilt against the Baltimore Ravens.

Week 12: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 19-16

Ranked – 4

For the second time this year the Steelers scored 19 points in a victory. I don't know what that means, but it's got to be of some cosmic significance.

Week 13: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 13-10

Ranked – 3 (ROCKY WEEK!)

            Coach Tomlin: Ben, your nose is broken.

Ben Roethlisberger: How does it look? 

            Coach Tomlin: Ah, it's an improvement.

Week 14: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 23-7

Ranked – 3

Unless New England stumbles, Pittsburgh has no shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but there is no reason they shouldn't be sitting at home during the Wild Card games, resting for their Divisional matchup.

Week 15: Lost to New York Jets, 22-17

Ranked – 5

Lose and still clinch a playoff spot? Not the best way to punch a ticket to the post-season, but they'll take it. A first-round bye is theirs to lose.

Week 16: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 27-3

Ranked – 4

A win and a week off will provide enough motivation for the Steelers to put away the Browns.

Week 17: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 41-9

Ranked – 3

Hard-fought victories and veteran leadership will make the Steelers a well-rested, deadly foe once they take the field in two weeks.

Wild Card Game: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 3

Pittsburgh has had a week to get rested up before they take the field against their bitter division rivals in what will most definitely be a hard-hitting, slugfest. The extra rest may prove the difference once the game reaches the fourth quarter.

Divisional Game: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 31-24

Ranked – 2

No team has won more Super Bowls than the Steelers and no AFC team has played in more championship games this decade. Not only can their defense match up with New York's offense, the Pittsburgh offense can play the down and dirty style needed to overcome the Jets' rough and tumble defense.

Championship Game: Defeated the New York Jets, 24-19

Ranked – 1

The Steelers only needed one solid half to beat the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional game. Against the New York Jets they only needed one solid half to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Can you imagine how scary good this team could be if they ever played a full 60 minutes? Why, their appearance in the Super Bowl alone is enough to bring a tear of joy to Scottie V's eye.

Super Bowl XLV: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 31-25

Final Rank - 2

Tomorrow, the 2010 Super Bowl Champions – the Green Bay Packers…

Super Bowl XLV - Roundup of Creative Misfortune

NFC #6 Green Bay Packers vs AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers
     (Actual ~ Green Bay, 31-25)
    
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-23. An outstanding defensive play by the Steelers will be the deciding factor of the game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23. A defensive battle in the first half gives way to some big offensive plays in the second half... Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field to set up a walk-off field goal to win the game... 7 Super Bowl Championships... Not bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Undecided - No Pick. Accuscore pulled the ultimate copout and picked Pittsburgh to win 50% of their simulations and Green Bay to win 50% of their simulations. I have a hard time believing that after 10,000 computer sims, both teams ended up winning exactly 5,000 simulations. What a joke- and for the biggest game of the season, no less! Only once before in 2010 have the Accuscore computers picked a game with a 50/50 split - week 1's contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Back then, they were credited with taking the home team, but in this case, since there is no home team, Accuscore will have no pick for the big game. The full write-up of Accuscore's game simulations can be seen here on their website. Computers shouldn't be so indecisive.
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-9. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 14-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay is only 1,186 miles away from Cowboys Stadium, whereas Pittsburgh is a slightly farther 1,242 miles away.

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE

GREEN BAY PACKERS 

 

2010 NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

It wasn't one of the greatest Super Bowls I have ever seen, but the Green Bay Packers, and young quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, took a huge step forward tonight with their solid victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offense moved the ball when they had to. The defense won the game with their superior play. The pick-6 by Nick Collins in the first quarter that set the stage for the rest of the game. Clay Matthews added a game-changing hit in the second half that forced Rashard Mendenhall to cough up the ball when all the momentum had shifted Pittsburgh's way and the Steelers were driving for a touchdown to take the lead.

Enjoy this night, Packers fans. Your team has definitely made you proud. With the crowning of the Green Bay Packers as Super Bowl Champions, the lights have finally turned out on the 2010 NFL season.

Here's hoping the NFL owners and players will come to an agreement to turn the lights back on for the 2011 season.

2010 Prediction Scoreboard - Final Standings

     Vegas Picks: 174-93 (65.2%) *2 Perfect Picks
     Accuscore: 170-97 (63.7%)
     Scottie V's: 169-98 (63.3%)
     Creative Misfortune: 157-110 (58.8%) *1 Perfect Pick
     Best Record Wins Pick: 154-113 (57.7%) *3 Perfect Picks              
     Home Team Wins Pick: 148-119 (55.4%) *3 Perfect Picks
     What If Sports: 142-125 (53.2%) *1 Perfect Pick
                                                      

On Wednesday, The Art of Creative Misfortune NFL team recaps will begin being posted. Relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2010 season! Recaps will go up in draft order, so Carolina Panthers, you're on the clock...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Super Bowl XLV

After everything that has been said over the past two weeks, it's finally time to get this game played!

Super Bowl XLV Predictions:

NFC #6 Green Bay Packers vs AFC #2 Pittsburgh Steelers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-23. An outstanding defensive play by the Steelers will be the deciding factor of the game.
     Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-23. A defensive battle in the first half gives way to some big offensive plays in the second half... Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field to set up a walk-off field goal to win the game... 7 Super Bowl Championships... Not bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-21. Green Bay by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Undecided - No Pick. Accuscore pulled the ultimate copout and picked Pittsburgh to win 50% of their simulations and Green Bay to win 50% of their simulations. I have a hard time believing that after 10,000 computer sims, both teams ended up winning exactly 5,000 simulations. What a joke- and for the biggest game of the season, no less! Only once before in 2010 have the Accuscore computers picked a game with a 50/50 split - week 1's contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets. Back then, they were credited with taking the home team, but in this case, since there is no home team, Accuscore will have no pick for the big game. The full write-up of Accuscore's game simulations can be seen here on their website. Computers shouldn't be so indecisive.
     What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 23-9. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 14-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay is only 1,186 miles away from Cowboys Stadium, whereas Pittsburgh is a slightly farther 1,242 miles away.



Next week, once the Super Bowl celebrations have wound down and the champion has been duly praised, complete season recaps for all teams will begin. Don't miss out on your chance to relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2010 season!

Super Bowl XLV Preview - Franchise Comparisons - Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Two storied franchises are set to battle it out in Dallas on Sunday to determine which one will become even more storied. We’ve compared the offenses. We’ve compared the defenses. Now let’s compare the organizations as a whole and see how they stack up to each other.

Founded -

            Green Bay Packers: 1919

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 1933

            Comment of Misfortune: Green Bay is older by 14 years and was part of the original National Football League.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 1-0

Stadium Capacity -

            Green Bay Packers: 73,128

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 64,450

            Comment of Misfortune: Since 73,128 is a few more drunken fans more than 64,450, I gotta rule in favor of Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 2-0

Uniform Colors -

            Green Bay Packers: Green and Gold

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Black and Gold

            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams apparently like gold, so that's a draw. However, football teams are more menacing dressed in black. I mean, would Darth vader have been nearly as scary if he wore green like a wee little leprechaun? I think not.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Green Bay, 2-1

Nickname -

            Green Bay Packers: Packers, Titletown USA, Cheeseheads

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers, Steel Curtain

            Comment of Misfortune: I don’t really know what Steelers are and Packers kind of scare me - what are they packing anyway? But since Steel Curtains can keep Cheeseheads locked up and out of harm's way, gotta give the nod to Pittsburgh.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 2-2

2010 Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (3-0)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 (2-0)

            Comment of Misfortune: Green Bay's 3-0 run on the road in the playoffs is quite impressive, but overall Pittsburgh's 14-4 record sounds better than 13-6.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 3-2

All-Time Regular Season Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 664-524-36 (.559 win %, since 1921)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 541-499-20 (.520 win %, since 1933)

            Comment of Misfortune: Not only has Green Bay played more games then Pittsburgh, they've won a higher percentage of them, too.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 3-3

All-Time Playoff Record -

            Green Bay Packers: 28-16 (.636 win %)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 33-19 (.635 win %)

            Comment of Misfortune: Come playoff time, however, Pittsburgh has played in more games, and won more games, than the Packers.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 4-3

2010 Touchdowns Scored -

            Green Bay Packers: 58 (regular season, 46; playoffs, 12)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 48 (regular season, 41; playoffs 7)

            Comment of Misfortune: The Packers offense has been quite prolific through most of the season and they have punched the ball into the end zone 10 times more than the Steelers.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 4-4

2010 Field Goals Scored -

            Green Bay Packers: 24 (regular season, 22; playoffs,2)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 (regular season, 29; playoffs, 2)

            Comment of Misfortune: In close, defensive battles, field goals can be of utmost importance. The Steelers have a significant edge here.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 5-4

Super Bowl Titles -

            Green Bay Packers: 3 ~ Super Bowls I, II and XXXI

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 ~ Super Bowls IX, X, XIII, XIV, XL, XLIII

            Comment of Misfortune: My grade-school math tells me 6 is twice as big as 3, so this category definitely falls Pittsburgh's way.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 6-4

Other Championships -

            Green Bay Packers: 9 ~ NFL Championships in 1929, 1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1944, 1961, 1962 and 1965

            Pittsburgh Steelers: None

            Comment of Misfortune: Yet if any grade-school kid can tell you 6 is twice as big as 3, it would take a mathematical genius to comprehend how many times 9 is bigger than 0. The answer may be undefined, but the result is clearly in Green Bay's favor.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Pittsburgh, 6-5

All-Time Record vs Each Other -

            Green Bay Packers: 18-14

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-18

            Comment of Misfortune: The Packers own the all-time series by four games…

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 6-6

Record in Last 10 Games vs Each Other (since December 1970) -

            Green Bay Packers: 3-7

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-3

            Comment of Misfortune: …but have been far from stellar against the Steelers when they have faced off during the last 40 years.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Pittsburgh, 7-6

Biggest All-Time Victory vs Each Other -

            Green Bay Packers: 47 points (GB 54, PIT 7; November 23, 1941)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 points (PIT 38, GB 7; November 7, 1948)

            Comment of Misfortune: Both blowouts took place in a black-and-white world, but Green Bay's 54 points in 1941 is far more impressive than the mere 38 points Pittsburgh managed in their 1948 victory.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Tied, 7-7

Total Franchise All-Pro Players -

            Green Bay Packers: 56 Players (named a total of 126 times)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 38 Players (named a total of 80 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to Pro's Pros, Green Bay has had almost 50% more All-Pro players on their rosters than the Steelers.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 8-7

Total Franchise Pro Bowl Players -

            Green Bay Packers: 118 Players (named a total of 257 times)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 114 Players (named a total of 290 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to fan balloting, both teams have had roughly the same number of players voted to the Pro Bowl, but Pittsburgh has sent their players nearly 50 more times to the glorified flag football game than Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 8-8

Pac-10 Players on Roster -

            Green Bay Packers: 7 - Nick Barnett (Oregon State), Desmond Bishop (California), Brandon Chillar (UCLA), Spencer Havner (UCLA), Clay Matthews (USC), Dmitri Nance (Arizona State) and Aaron Rodgers (California)

            Pittsburgh Steelers: 3 - Dennis Dixon (Oregon), Keenan Lewis (Oregon State) and Troy Polamalu (USC)

            Comment of Misfortune: What's with all the non-Pac-10 players, Pittsburgh? Talk about East Coast bias. Left Coast Advantage - Green Bay.

            Team Advantage: Green Bay

            Score: Green Bay, 9-8

Team Fans -

            Green Bay Packers: "Team Owners" wearing cheese-related headgear

            Pittsburgh Steelers: Blue-collar workers waving yellow-hankies in the air and screaming about how terrible they are; Scottie V.

            Comment of Misfortune: An alcohol-soaked cheesehead weaving towards you in a darkened alley would be far less menacing than a Steeler with a terrible towel coming at you.

            Team Advantage: Pittsburgh

            Score: Tied, 9-9

Final Judgment:

            Both franchises are among the true elites of the National Football League and remain deadlocked after 18 comparison categories. It should be one heck of a Super Bowl!

Check back tomorrow for the predictions of Creative Misfortune for Super Bowl XLV…Will either team be a unanimous pick by all prediction systems?