Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Divisional Round (2014)

It's the divisional round of the NFL playoffs! The home teams have a huge advantage, but in recent years, the Wild Card teams have been nothing but upset-minded. If your team is still playing for a shot at the title, how will they fare this weekend?

Divisional Round Saturday Game Predictions:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 2. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.722 - 0.681
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seahawks by 10.5, Over/Under 40
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.739 - 0.462
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Divisional Round Sunday Game Predictions:

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 6. Packers by 6, Over/Under 52.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 1. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.688 - 0.659
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 7. Broncos by 7, Over/Under 53
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 1. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.675 - 0.641
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

Check back next Thursday for Championship game power rankings and predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 16 (2014)

First round byes and division titles are on the line as Denver takes on Cincinnati. Almost all systems favor the Broncos to win, but who knows what Cincinnati team will show up tonight.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 3, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.668 - 0.543
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 6. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-69
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 11-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3


"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Fantasy Bowl IV results will be posted on New Year's Eve, because I will be traveling, but results will be based on the games played in Week 16. Happy Holidays, Everybody!

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 8 (2014)

Can the Broncos keep playing at a high-level following Manning's record-setting performance last week? Can the Chargers rebound from a loss to the Chiefs and take back control of the AFC West?

All system favor the Broncos at home tonight, except for the Pythagorean Theorem system, which has so far had a disappointing prediction record this season.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 8. Broncos by 8, Over/Under 51
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1. San Diego Chargers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.757 - 0.742
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 4. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-73
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 5-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 8 slate...

Tournament of Past Champions - 2013 Title Defense of the '99 St. Louis Rams

During the Spring of 2011, 128 of the greatest teams in football history came together and competed in Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions. The tournament, comprised of 35 league champions (teams from the NFL, AFL and AAFC, who won their titles between 1941 and 1965), 45 Super Bowl champions, 45 Super Bowl runner-ups looking for redemption and 3 wild-cards pulled from the ranks of those modern-era teams so great during the regular season the football world was shocked when they did not make it to the Super Bowl (the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, the 2005 Indianapolis Colts and the 1987 San Francisco 49ers), proved to be a grueling task for all but the hardiest of teams.

In a single elimination tournament, with virtual game results determined by What If Sports computer simulations, 128 of the greatest teams in football history fought for supremacy and only one team – the 1999 St. Louis Rams, aka The Greatest Show on Turf – emerged victorious.

The road to the title for St. Louis was not an easy one. The Rams opened their tournament with a dominating 21-13 victory over the 1958 Baltimore Colts and really hit their stride in the second round when they absolutely crushed the 2001 New England Patriots, 29-12, in a matchup where they won every possible simulated game and avenged a real-world loss by the 2001 St. Louis Rams in the process.

St. Louis struggled mightily against the ’95 Cowboys in round three, advancing despite winning less than half of the simulations, but managed to find their high gear again when they defeated the 1962 Packers in their Fortunate 16 matchup, 21-14.

The Greatest Show on Turf punched their ticket to the Elite 4 with a gutty, one-point victory over the #1 seeded, 1985 Chicago Bears and then rolled into the title game after defeating Brett Favre and the 1996 Green Bay Packers. A victory over the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers completed St. Louis’ championship run.

Three years removed from their outstanding Tournament of Past Champions victory, two new upstarts are set to challenge the ‘99 Rams for the title of greatest team ever – this season’s Super Bowl entrants, the 2013 Denver Broncos and the 2013 Seattle Seahawks.

The Tournament of Past Champions games are played using the What If Sports SimMatchups software (try it for yourself here) that allows you to simulate historical games as many times as you would like with teams using different “offensive playbooks” while competing in both home, away or neutral game sites. To determine the title defense results, each matchup will be based on the result of 20 head-to-head simulations.

For example, to decide who would prevail – the 1959 Baltimore Colts or the 2009 Indianapolis Colts, 20 game simulations will be run – 10 at the home stadium of the ’59 Colts and 10 at the home stadium of the 2009 Colts.

Each of those 10 simulations will be broken down into “playbook” matchups in order to better gauge the overall strength and weaknesses of each team taking part in the tournament. The What If Sports game engine provides four separate playbook options – Balanced, Run Heavy, Pass Heavy and West Coast style. Over the course of a single, 20-game sim matchup, teams will play eight Balanced sims, four Pass Heavy sims, four Run Heavy sims and four West Coast style sims.

The final score for each team in the virtual matchup will be the average of the team’s scores over the course of all 20 simulations. The higher average “wins” the virtual matchup. In case teams are tied after 20 simulations, an additional 10 overtime sims, five at each team’s home stadium, will be played until one winner emerges. 

Results for each virtual matchup are recorded as follows:

                                                          

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		1959 Baltimore Colts	7	7	10	0	24
		2009 Indianapolis Colts	7	7	0	7	21
		*Baltimore won 14 of 20 simulations

Now, without further ado, the 1999 St. Louis Rams defend their Tournament of Past Champions title against this year’s Super Bowl teams…

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2013 Denver Broncos

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		2013 Denver Broncos	0	7	0	14	21
		1999 St. Louis Rams	7	3	14	0	24
		*St. Louis won 10 of 20 simulations

   
            The Broncos stayed close with the Rams until halftime, then stumbled after the break. Peyton Manning led them down the field and threatened in the 4th quarter, but it was too little, too late and Denver fell short of dethroning the Greatest Show on Turf.  

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2013 Seattle Seahawks

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		2013 Seattle Seahawks	0	7	10	0	17
		1999 St. Louis Rams	0	7	3	10	20
		*St. Louis won 11 of 20 simulations

            Seattle fared slightly better against the Rams and played them dead even through the first half. The Seahawks even managed to take the lead into the 4th Quarter, but could not hold on to it when their offense sputtered in the final stanza. Kurt Warner led the Rams to two late scores to overtake the Seahawks and retain their title as the greatest statistical team of all time.

Congratulations again to the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

Still Creative Misfortune’s reigning Champion of Champions.

           


On Friday, the final blog announcement of Creative Misfortune’s third season…

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Super Bowl XLVIII

After all has been said, it is time to get this game done!

Super Bowl XLVIII Predictions:

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1

     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 2. Broncos by 2, Over/Under 48.5

     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Both teams at 15-3, advantage goes to Denver because the NFL has dubbed them the "Home Team of Record" for the Super Bowl.

     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. The Broncos play their home games on Sports Authority Field at Mile High, just 1,776 miles away from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, whereas CenturyLink Field in Seattle sits 2,856 miles away.




In two weeks (on February 10th), once the Super Bowl celebrations have wound down and the champion has been duly praised, complete season recaps for all teams will begin. Don't miss out on your chance to relive the glory (or misfortune) of your favorite team's 2013 season!

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Franchise Comparisons - Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks

Two great franchises are set to battle it out in the cold in New Jersey on Sunday to determine which one will take that next big step towards becoming a storied franchise. We’ve compared the offenses. We’ve compared the defenses. Now let’s compare the organizations as a whole and see how they stack up to each other.

Founded -

            Denver Broncos: 1960

            Seattle Seahawks: 1976

            Comment of Misfortune: Denver is older by 16 years and was part of the original American Football League before it joined with the NFL.

            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 1-0

Stadium Capacity -

            Denver Broncos: 76,125
            Seattle Seahawks: 67,000
            Comment of Misfortune: Since 76,125 is a few more drunken fans than 67,000, I gotta rule in favor of Denver.

            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 2-0

Uniform Colors -

            Denver Broncos: Orange and Navy Blue
            Seattle Seahawks: College Navy and Action Green with Wolf Gray accents

            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams have a variation of Navy Blue in their colors, so that's a draw. Orange and Action Green accents kind of offset each other with how possibly bad they can be if used incorrectly. Wolf Gray, however, is a very cool color and tips this category in favor of the Seahawks.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 2-1

Nickname -

            Denver Broncos: Broncos, Orange Crush

            Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks, Legion of Boom, Seagulls

            Comment of Misfortune: I know what Broncos are and I have a pretty good idea what a mythical Seahawk may look like. When I hear Orange Crush, though, I immediately think of a soda can, not something menacing. Legion of Boom, however, sounds like something Spider Man or Superman would have to fight. Gotta give the nod to Seattle.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Tied, 2-2

2013 Record -

            Denver Broncos: 13-3 (2-0)

            Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 (2-0)

            Comment of Misfortune: Both teams finished the season with 13 wins and neither have lost in the playoffs yet, so I have to call this category a draw.

            Team Advantage: Draw
            Score: Tied, 2-2-1

All-Time Regular Season Record -

            Denver Broncos: 432-378-10 (.527 win % since 1960)

            Seattle Seahawks: 293-303 (.492 win % since 1976)

            Comment of Misfortune: Not only has Denver played more games than Seattle, they've won a higher percentage of them, too.

            Team Advantage: Denver

            Score: Denver, 3-2-1
 

All-Time Playoff Record -

            Denver Broncos: 20-17 (.541 win %)

            Seattle Seahawks: 11-12 (.478 win %)

            Comment of Misfortune: That's holds true for the playoffs as well… Denver has more games and more victories.

            Team Advantage: Denver

            Score: Denver, 4-2-1

2013 Touchdowns Scored -

            Denver Broncos: 81 (regular season, 76; playoffs, 5)

            Seattle Seahawks: 49 (regular season, 45; playoffs 4)

            Comment of Misfortune: The Broncos offense has been the most prolific offense in NFL history and they have scored almost twice as many touchdowns as the Seahawks this season.

            Team Advantage: Denver

            Score: Denver, 5-2-1

 

2013 Field Goals Scored -

            Denver Broncos: 30 (regular season, 25; playoffs, 5)

            Seattle Seahawks: 39 (regular season, 33; playoffs, 6)

            Comment of Misfortune: In close, defensive battles, field goals can be of utmost importance. The Seahawks have a significant edge here.

            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 5-3-1

 

Super Bowl Titles -

            Denver Broncos: 2 ~ Super Bowls XXXII & XXXIII

            Seattle Seahawks: None

            Comment of Misfortune: My grade-school math tells me 2 is a lot more than 0, so this category definitely falls Denver's way.
            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 6-3-1

 

Other Championships -

            Denver Broncos: None
            Seattle Seahawks: None

            Comment of Misfortune: Since neither of these teams existed before 1960, there wasn't much chance for them to win any other league championships.

            Team Advantage: Draw
            Score: Denver, 6-3-2

 

All-Time Record vs Each Other -

            Denver Broncos: 34-19

            Seattle Seahawks: 19-34

            Comment of Misfortune: The Broncos own the all-time series by fifteen games…

            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 7-3-2

Record in Last 10 Games vs Each Other (since December 1998) -

            Denver Broncos: 7-3

            Seattle Seahawks: 3-7
            Comment of Misfortune: …and Denver has dominated all the recent games against the Seahawks going back to December of 1998.
            Team Advantage: Denver

            Score: Denver, 8-3-2

Biggest All-Time Victory vs Each Other -

            Denver Broncos: 27 points (Denver 41, Seattle 14; November 26, 1989)

            Seattle Seahawks: 28 points (Seattle 42, Denver 14; December 11, 1988)

            Comment of Misfortune: Both blowouts took place in the late eighties, but Seattle's 28 point victory in 1988 is far more impressive than the mere 27 points Denver managed to win by in their 1989 victory.
            Team Advantage: Seattle
            Score: Denver, 8-4-2
 

Total Franchise All-Pro Players -

            Denver Broncos: 36 Players (named a total of 62 times)

            Seattle Seahawks: 18 Players (named a total of 28 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to Pro's Pros, Denver has had twice as many All-Pro players on their rosters than the Seahawks, despite only being in the league 16 years longer.

            Team Advantage: Denver
            Score: Denver, 9-4-2

Total Franchise Pro Bowl Players -

            Denver Broncos: 92 Players (named a total of 209 times)

            Seattle Seahawks: 44 Players (named a total of 103 times)

            Comment of Misfortune: When it comes to fan balloting, Denver once again has over double the number of players voted to the Pro Bowl and the Broncos have sent their players twice as many times to the glorified flag-football game than Seattle.

            Team Advantage: Denver

            Score: Denver, 10-4-2

PAC-12 Players on Roster -

            Denver Broncos: 8 - C.J. Anderson (California), Omar Bolden (Arizona State),Sione Fua (Stanford), Winston Justice (USC), Ryan Miller (Colorado), Rahim Moore (UCLA), Cameron Morrah (California), Brock Osweiler (Arizona State)
            Seattle Seahawks: 13 - Doug Baldwin (Stanford), Brandon Browner (Oregon State), Derrick Coleman (UCLA), Jermaine Kearse (Washington), Marshawn Lynch (California), Anthony McCoy (USC), Brandon Mebane (California), Zach Miller (Arizona State), Mike Morgan (USC), Richard Sherman (Stanford), Malcolm Smith (USC), Walter Thurmond (Oregon), Max Unger (Oregon)         
            Comment of Misfortune: What's with all the non-PAC-12 players, Denver? You're far enough west this shouldn't be an issue. Left Coast Advantage - Seattle.

            Team Advantage: Seattle

            Score: Denver, 10-5-2

Team Fans -

            Denver Broncos: "Barrel Man", People on a Rocky Mountain High
            Seattle Seahawks: The 12th Man         
            Comment of Misfortune: Since the 12th Man can generate recordable earthquakes, I have to give them the nod in this category. Not that it will do them any good at the Super Bowl, though, since the game will be played in New Jersey, about as far away from Seattle as you can possibly get and still be in the contintental United States.

            Team Advantage: Seattle

            Score: Denver, 10-6-2

 

Final Judgment:

            Denver clearly has the historical advantage over Seattle, despite only being in existence 16 years longer than the Seahawks.

Check back tomorrow for the predictions of Creative Misfortune for Super Bowl XLVIII…Will either team be a unanimous pick by all prediction systems?

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Seattle's Offense vs Denver's Defense

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing hard-nosed solid football all season long, despite stumbling a bit down the stretch to close out the regular season. The NFC front-runner all season, Seattle has lived up to their expectations so far and now face an extremely difficult test in the Super Bowl against a Denver unit that has been just as dominating on the AFC side of the house. The young Russell Wilson leads the offense along with the help of Marshawn Lynch, a punishing back who will move piles and knock out would be tacklers every chance he can get.

Despite the weapons that Seattle has at their disposal - an up-and-coming star quarterback, a power running game, a solid receiving corps and a strong offensive line - the Seahawks offense will be no match for the Broncos if their defense can't slow down Manning and the most explosive offense in NFL history.

The Broncos, for their part, have improved greatly on defense during the second half of the season. While the offense has slowed a bit during the playoffs, the defense has picked up the slack and have helped punch Denver's ticket to the Super Bowl. The Denver D will have to play better than average if they want to slow down Seattle's power running game so they can get Peyton Manning and his charges back on the field. It's always easier to play defense when your offense gives you a 21-point lead to work with.


Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games


            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points


                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Seahwks Offense vs	Denver Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	147	139
Rushing Yards	2477	1755	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.059	0.079	0.069
At their Best (DEF worst)	218 yards	177 yards	198 yards = 13.7 pts = 14 pts
2013 Average	138 yards	98 yards	118 yards = 8.1 pts = 8 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	44 yards	23 yards	34 yards = 2.4 pts = 2 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	239	238
Passing Yards	3532	4520	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.068	0.053	0.061
At their Best (DEF Worst)	323 yards	470 yards	397 yards = 24.2 pts = 24 pts
2013 Average	196 yards	251 yards	224 yards = 13.7 pts = 14 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	89 yards	153 yards	121 yards =   7.4 pts =   7 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	14 pts + 24 pts	38
2013 Average	8 pts + 14 pts	22
At their Worst	2 pts +   7 pts	9

Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Score for the Seattle Seahawks: 23 points

Based on the Denver projections from yesterday versus the Seattle defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Seattle to win a very close shoot-out, 38-35.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect another close game with Denver coming out on top, 24-21.

If a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle takes place, expect the Seahawks to win on the strength of field goals by the score of 9-7.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if Seattle hopes to win, they need their offense to be on fire or their defense to be on fire. If both units play average, expect the Broncos to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after the game.


Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…