Almost all systems hit the 70% accuracy mark in week 12 as NFL teams stayed truer to form than most weeks of the season so far.
The Fantasy Projections and the Best Record Wins formulas both picked 11 out of 13 games correctly for an outstanding 84.6% accuracy.
The Vegas Lines system came in third place this week by picking 10 out of 13 games correctly for 76.9% accuracy.
All other systems picked 9 out of 13 games correctly for 69.2% accuracy.
All systems favor the Buffalo Bills to win tonight in their "home" makeup game on the road in Detroit. In the normally scheduled Monday Night game, most systems favor the Ravens to defeat the Saints tonight.
Monday Night Game Predictions:
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4. Bills by 4, Over/Under 39
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.488 - 0.270
Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 11. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-48
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 50
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.704 - 0.521
Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-78
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams punched their ticket to the fantasy fopotball playoffs?
Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts
Monday, November 24, 2014
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 11 (2014)
Second place in the AFC East is on the line tonight as two "on-the-cusp" teams square off. All systems favor the Dolphins to win at home tonight in a close game.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6. Dolphins by 5.5, Over/under 42
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.529
Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-62
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Both teams at 5-4, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 11 slate...
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 6. Dolphins by 5.5, Over/under 42
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Miami Dolphins by 5. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.529
Fantasy Projection Pick: Miami Dolphins by 4. Miami Dolphins projected to win by a fantasy score of 73-62
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Both teams at 5-4, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 11 slate...
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Season Recap - 2013 Buffalo Bills
Final Record: 6-10
Finished: 4th Place in the AFC East
2014 Draft Position: 9th
Preseason Ranking: 24
Week 1: Lost to the New England Patriots, 23-21
Ranked - 24
So close to upsetting the Patriots week one, the Bills still have to prove they can win games before anyone will take them seriously.
Week 2: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 24-23
Ranked - 18
The Bills are young and showing some fight this season.
Week 3: Lost at the New York Jets, 27-20
Ranked - 21
So close to defeating the Jets, the Bills are once again headed for the cellar of the AFC East.
Week 4: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 23-20
Ranked - 13
A big victory by the Bills at home has them right there in the AFC East mix.
Week 5: Lost at the Cleveland Browns, 37-24
Ranked - 21
Buffalo missed out on the Freeman sweepstakes. The season is not lost, but as the worst of the AFC East teams, they certainly have an uphill battle to fight.
Week 6: Lost to the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-24
Ranked - 23
So close to victory, the Bills drop a tough one at home in overtime.
Week 7: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 23-21
Ranked - 19
A big road win over the Dolphins has the Bills thinking they might have a chance. Sure, they are still in last place and still have a losing record, but that doesn't mean they don't have a chance to get back into the division race the way all the other AFC East teams are playing.
Week 8: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 35-17
Ranked - 21
Buffalo just doesn't have what it takes to stay with the elite NFL teams.
Week 9: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 23-13
Ranked - 22
Really hard to lose a game when you don't give up an offensive touchdown. Kind of like pitching a no hitter and losing on an error.
Week 10: Lost at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 23-10
Ranked - 27
The Bills almost seemed like they were going somewhere a few weeks ago, but instead they are going nowhere, just like every other season the last ten years.
Week 11: Defeated the New York Jets, 37-14
Ranked - 22
Where have these Bills been? If they played like that earlier in the year, they certainly could have shocked some people.
Week 12: BYE WEEK
Ranked - 23
At 4-7, the Bills have virtually no shot to make the playoffs, especially with a lot of road games remaining on their schedule.
Week 13: Lost to the Atlanta Falcons, 34-31
Ranked - 24
Toronto just doesn't give the Bills the home-field advantage that they need. So what if it is cold in Buffalo?
Week 14: Lost at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27-6
Ranked - 28
I really thought the Bills could have been something this year.
Week 15: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 27-20
Ranked - 23
As bad as the year has gone for the Bills, at least they seem to have found their starting quarterback for the future in EJ Manuel.
Week 16: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 19-0
Ranked - 23
Out of the playoffs, the Bills can still send the Patriots stumbling into the playoffs without a first-round bye.
Week 17: Lost at the New England Patriots, 34-20
Final Ranking: 24
Tomorrow, the 2013 Detroit Lions...
Friday, February 24, 2012
Season Recap - 2011 Buffalo Bills
Finished: 3rd Place in the AFC East
2012 Draft Position: 10th
Preseason Ranking: 28
Week 1: Defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 41-7
Ranked - 9
The absolute surprise of the weekend, Buffalo made everybody do a double take when their 41-7 shellacking of the Chiefs crawled across the ticker. It is doubtful in such a strong division the Bills will be able to keep this up and string together a few victories, but for one week, at least, they are not buffaloed.
Week 2: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 38-35
Ranked - 6
A 2-0 start means nothing if the Patriots go into Buffalo this weekend and lay 50 on the Bills. Sure, Buffalo has started out with two impressive wins, but since they are not even supposed to be here, a victory over New England will silence their critics until they finally lose a game.
Week 3: Defeated the New England Patriots, 34-31
Ranked - 5
Note to self: Still young and unproven, we have nothing to lose! Harvard and Coe - what an explosive combination. Signed, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Week 4: Lost at the Cincinnati Bengals, 23-20
Ranked - 10
Really? Marvin Lewis makes a ridiculous guarantee and the Bills let him get away with it? Nobody expected Buffalo to be perfect - or even 3-1, for that matter - but that was a bad loss to the Bengals last Sunday.
Week 5: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 31-24
Ranked - 7
The Bills solidified their position in the league as the anti-Eagles when they knocked off Philadelphia last week.
Week 6: Lost at the New York Giants, 27-24
Ranked - 9 Indiana Jones Style Recap
[Following the late interception in the loss to the Giants...]
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Give me your helmet.
Stevie Johnson: [takes his helmet off slowly] Why?
Ryan Fitzpatrick: [taking the helmet] Because I'm gonna puke in it!
[Stevie Johnson quickly takes his helmet back]
Week 7: BYE WEEK
Ranked - 9
Another surprise team of 2011 comes out of its bye week fresh and ready to keep on winning.
Week 8: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 23-0
Ranked - 5
The Bills keep forgetting that they are, well… the Bills. A win this week over the Jets will further legitimize their rise back to the ranks of the AFC elite.
Week 9: Lost to the New York Jets, 27-11
Ranked - 9
A bad division loss to the Jets could be the beginning of the end for Buffalo.
Week 10: Lost at the Dallas Cowboys, 44-7
Ranked - 16
The Bills were completely outclassed by the Cowboys last weekend and now their playoff hopes are starting to dim after an impressive start to the season.
Week 11: Lost at the Miami Dolphins, 35-8
Ranked - 18
Fans in Buffalo must be thinking, "here we go… Buffaloed again."
Week 12: Lost at the New York Jets, 28-24
Ranked - 18
Oh, what could have been. The Bills continue to erase all the good feelings created by the outstanding start to their season.
Week 13: Lost to the Tennessee Titans, 23-17
Ranked - 21
The luster is certainly gone from Buffalo's scintillating 4-1 start.
Week 14: Lost at the San Diego Chargers, 37-10
Ranked - 23
Buffalo exhibited some signs of life in the third quarter against the Chargers, but beyond that, they failed quite miserably.
Week 15: Lost to the Miami Dolphins, 30-23
Ranked - 26
So much for the Bills being the surprise team of the season.
Week 16: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 40-14
Ranked - 23
Buffalo has hardly been relevant the last half of the season, aside from last week's victory over the Broncos.
Week 17: Lost at the New England Patriots, 49-21
Final Ranking: 24
Season recaps resume next week with the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs...
Friday, February 11, 2011
Season Recap - 2010 Buffalo Bills
Finished: 4th place in the AFC East
2011 Draft Position: 3rd
Preseason Ranking: 21
Finally the Bills show some emotion and open training camp with a chip on their shoulder. Granted, having an underachieving defensive lineman take a cheap shot at your overachieving starting running back may not be the best way to bring emotion back to your game, but any emotion after the Dick Jauron years has to be appreciated.
Not since the opening of the 2003 season, when Buffalo, then led by Drew Bledsoe, pasted the New England Patriots 31-0, has
New England is on the prowl,
Bold failures are easily forgiven. No team ever became great playing afraid to lose. Not only have you played afraid to lose, but you have also played to contain the margin of defeat. A loss is a loss, whether it’s by one point or fifty.
You may fall short and fail once again this year, but you can certainly fail better than you have in the past. With the quarterback position unsettled, the running game and defense will have to step up in order for you to regain the dominance you once had in the 90’s.
Since you open the season with three division games and one game at Lambeau, you have an immediate chance to send a clear message to the rest of the league. But what message will you send?
Will you emerge from those opening games brilliant and bold or 0-for-4 and buffaloed?
Week 1: Lost to Miami
Ranked – 28
A safety gains you what in that situation, exactly? You know it's legal to fair catch kick-offs, right? Even for the Bills this was a head scratcher.
Week 2: Lost at Green Bay
Ranked - 29
You were expected to be 0-2, Buffalo
Week 3: Lost at New England Patriots, 38-30
Ranked - 30
Playing valiant in defeat means you still lost. And how misguided was your coaching staff if up until the start of the regular season you believed Trent Edwards was the guy only to cut him last week for Ryan Fitzpatrick? Your decision making skills have always been suspect, so this move comes as no surprise to anybody. If only Brad Childress had the same courage to swallow his pride and admit he was wrong about T-Jack...
Week 4: Lost to New York
Ranked - 31
The Bills looked so promising after scoring 30 against the Patriots, but then the Jets reminded us all why the Bills are, well, the Bills. Usually it is not a good sign when a quarterback from Harvard leads your team in rushing.
Week 5: Lost to Jacksonville
Ranked - 31
Despite leading early, the Bills blow another game at home and extend their woeful streak of allowing teams to score 30 or more points against them to four straight.
Week 6: BYE WEEK
Ranked - 31
The Bills had a week off to think about how bad they are.
Week 7: Lost at Baltimore
Ranked – 30
Solid offensive play on the road against a tough defense, but the Bills are still overmatched by almost all other teams.
Week 8: Lost at Kansas City
Ranked – 30
This is probably the best 0-7 team in the history of the league. Yep, they're still terrible, though.
Week 9: Lost to Chicago
Ranked – 30
The Bills left the friendly confines of America hoping for a change, but whether in Canada or the U.S.
Week 10: Defeated the Detroit
Ranked – 30
Congratulations! You ruined Christmas for Lions fans everywhere by reminding them, once again, that they are, and will remain, the only team to ever finish a season a perfect 0-16.
Week 11: Defeated the Cincinnati
Ranked – 28
Offensive juggernauts! Even scoring all those points against Cincinnati
Week 12: Lost to Pittsburgh
Ranked – 27
Far and away the best of the two-win teams, Buffalo has an excellent opportunity to hit win #3 with a trip to Minnesota
Week 13: Lost at Minnesota
Ranked – 30 (ROCKY WEEK!)
Reporter: Harvard quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Any advice to kids out there?
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Stay in school and use your brain. Be a doctor, be a lawyer, carry a leather briefcase. Forget about sports as a profession. Sports make ya grunt and smell. Be a thinker, not a stinker.
Week 14: Defeated the Cleveland
Ranked – 29
A solid, defensive win at home following the defensive debacle in Minnesota
Week 15: Defeated the Miami
Ranked – 28
It's no big deal beating the Dolphins in Miami Buffalo
Week 16: Lost to the New England Patriots, 34-3
Ranked – 30
Just when you think the Bills might be on to something, they throw out a colossal stink-bomb. Sure, it is difficult to beat New England , but you should be able to score more than three points against a division rival.
Week 17: Lost at the New York
Final Rank - 28
Monday, August 2, 2010
Letters of Misfortune – AFC East, Part I
Finally the Bills show some emotion and open training camp with a chip on their shoulder. Granted, having an underachieving defensive lineman take a cheap shot at your overachieving starting running back may not be the best way to bring emotion back to your game, but any emotion after the Dick Jauron years has to be appreciated.
Not since the opening of the 2003 season, when Buffalo, then led by Drew Bledsoe, pasted the New England Patriots 31-0, has Buffalo been a team to get excited about. Since that game you have managed only a 46-65 record. Not terrible. Not great. Merely a lukewarm, average, why-should-we-care record. In a division where you are clearly the doormats, you better scrap together every bit of motivation and emotion you have, because you will need every ounce of it to achieve anything more than a 6-10 record this season.
New England is on the prowl, Miami is suddenly relevant, even if they faltered last year, and the New York Jets proved they won’t shy away from anybody. In a stacked division with three legitimate playoff contenders, you have to play with emotion. You need to kick, scratch and claw for every yard you can get this season. And when it’s fourth down around your opponent’s 40 yard line, don’t punt! Don’t quiver and give the ball away. Stand up, fight for that first down and go for it!
Bold failures are easily forgiven. No team ever became great playing afraid to lose. Not only have you played afraid to lose, but you have also played to contain the margin of defeat. A loss is a loss, whether it’s by one point or fifty.
You may fall short and fail once again this year, but you can certainly fail better than you have in the past. With the quarterback position unsettled, the running game and defense will have to step up in order for you to regain the dominance you once had in the 90’s.
Since you open the season with three division games and one game at Lambeau, you have an immediate chance to send a clear message to the rest of the league. But what message will you send?
Will you emerge from those opening games brilliant and bold or 0-for-4 and buffaloed?
Team of the past decade. The Evil Empire. Everything that is both right and wrong with Boston sports. A coach referred to as a genius. A quarterback ranked among the beautiful. A franchise, once downtrodden, now a failing dynasty.
Most teams around the league would love to have the pedigree of the New England Patriots. No single team challenged your status as the elite franchise of the past ten years. Indianapolis came closest, but ruined their opportunity last season to surpass you when they lost to New Orleans and gave away a chance to accomplish what you could not – finish the season as undefeated Super Bowl champions.
Though you have stumbled of late and injuries have taken their toll on some of your best players, you are still classified among the elites in the AFC, if not the NFL. No franchise has ever been the Team of the Decade twice during the modern era. Green Bay did little in the 70’s, Pittsburgh faltered in the 80’s, San Francisco fell off the map in the 90’s and Dallas stumbled through the last decade.
To start your journey towards unparalleled greatness, you will have to run a gauntlet of fire and emerge unscathed. Twelve of your games are played against playoff teams from last season or division opponents. Only the games against Cleveland and Detroit could be chalked up as outright wins this early in the preseason schedule.
If you weather the storms early and are able to stay healthy late, once again come playoff time fans around the league will be cursing your name and cringing at your cold-blooded efficiency.
Tomorrow, letters to the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins...
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