Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Divisional Round (2014)

It's the divisional round of the NFL playoffs! The home teams have a huge advantage, but in recent years, the Wild Card teams have been nothing but upset-minded. If your team is still playing for a shot at the title, how will they fare this weekend?

Divisional Round Saturday Game Predictions:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 7. Patriots by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New England Patriots by 2. New England Patriots projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.722 - 0.681
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seahawks by 10.5, Over/Under 40
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 11. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.739 - 0.462
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

Divisional Round Sunday Game Predictions:

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 6. Packers by 6, Over/Under 52.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Green Bay Packers by 1. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.688 - 0.659
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 13-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 7. Broncos by 7, Over/Under 53
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 1. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.675 - 0.641
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

Check back next Thursday for Championship game power rankings and predictions.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2014)

The NFL playoffs are finally here. Let's get wild, everybody!

Wild Card Game Predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 7. Panthers by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.442
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.599
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.535
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.576
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next Thursday for Creative Misfortune's post-Wild Card round power rankings.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 14 (2014)

Both the Bears and the Cowboys were embarrassed last Thursday. Now they have another Thursday night game to redeem themselves.

All systems, save the blind Home Team Wins formula, predict the Cowboys to win by an average of six points.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4. Cowboys by 3.5, Over/Under 51
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.560 - 0.336
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-72
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 8-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 14 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 13 (2014)

Happy Thanksgiving! May your team not play like turkeys today!

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions:

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Lions by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.521 - 0.356
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-61
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 7-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.626 - 0.614
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-86
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 8-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.642 - 0.508
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 63-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 7-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 13 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 8 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 8 went to Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Vegas Lines formula. Both systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by hitting 11 out of 14 games correctly (78.6%).

Three systems - Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula - finshed the week tied for third place and also exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for 71.4% accuracy.

The Pythagoren Theorem formula picked 9 games out of 14 correctly for a 64.3% accuracy, while blindly picking the Home Team to win netted 8 out of 14 picks correctly for the very 'home team wins' accuracy of 57.1%.

All systems favor the Dallas Cowboys to improve to the best overall record in the league tonight when they take on the Washington Redskins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 12
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 10. Cowboys by 10, Over/Under 49.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 11. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.664 - 0.388
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 86-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Week 8 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. With only four weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, every win is crucial. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Season Recap - 2013 Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys



Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 2nd Place in the NFC East
2014 Draft Position: 16th

Preseason Ranking: 16

Week 1: Defeated the New York Giants, 36-31
    Ranked - 10
    Dallas has never beaten the Giants in their new stadium. They've never forced the Giants to commit 6 turnovers, either. Both those are good signs for the rest of year.

Week 2: Lost at the Kansas City Chiefs, 17-16
    Ranked - 12
    Bad turnovers in the second half cost the Cowboys a victory this weekend. The defense is playing solid. The offense has to improve if they hope to be any better than .500 this year.

Week 3: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 31-7
    Ranked - 8
    The best team in the NFC East! That isn't saying much, but the Cowboys have rediscovered their running game and the division looks like theirs to lose.

Week 4: Lost at the San Diego Chargers, 30-21
    Ranked - 12
    If you are going to lose, losing on the road to a non-conference opponent is the way to do it. Of course, good teams don't lose on the road to average teams. Still too early to say if Dallas is truly good this year or if they are just getting by in the weakest division in football.

Week 5: Lost to the Denver Broncos, 51-48
    Ranked - 18
    So close, but a late, back-breaking turnover once again ruins their chances to do something truly great. Even at 2-3, the Cowboys are still the best team in the NFC East. They have that going for them.

Week 6: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 31-16
    Ranked - 13
    The offense seems to have it figured out, but the injuries have devastated the defensive line. Will the no-name Cowboys rise up and make themselves known? First chance comes next weekend when they take on the Eagles and their Blur Offense.

Week 7: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 17-3
    Ranked - 10
    A huge division win on the road in Philadelphia makes Dallas the team to beat in the woeful NFC East. If they can hold their own against other NFC opponents, they just might gain enough confidence to actually do something in the playoffs this year.

Week 8: Lost at the Detroit Lions, 31-30
    Ranked - 12
    Ugh, Dallas, that was terrible. How can you lose a game like that with just one minute to go when the defense has played so well most of the season? 4-4 translates to 8-8 and missing the playoffs if Dallas can't stop giving games away.

Week 9: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 27-23
    Ranked - 11
    Still in control of the NFC East, Dallas dodges a bullet and barely escapes with a win over the Vikings.

Week 10: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 49-17
    Ranked - 12
    If Coach Garrett and his staff cannot get this talented, underachieving football team to win the division title this year, of all years, then he should be fired.

Week 11: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 14
    After an up and down season, the Cowboys need to win consistently if they hope to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Week 12: Defeated the New York Giants, 24-21
    Ranked - 11
    A huge win on the road and a clutch performance by Tony Romo on the final drive of the game. Wins like that can propel a team to greatness.

Week 13: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 31-24
    Ranked - 11
    Dallas teams in recent years would have lost the last two games by failing to make that clutch 4th quarter drive to beat the Giants and by buckling under the Thanksgiving Day expectations when the Raiders jumped out to a 7-0 lead seconds into the game. But this Cowboys team seems to be able to handle adversity, which could bode well for their push to the playoffs.

Week 14: Lost at the Chicago Bears, 45-28
    Ranked - 15
    The offense can move the ball, both on the ground and through the air. The defense is just too injury-riddled to stop anybody. Good news for Dallas, they still control their own destiny. Bad news for Dallas, it is December.

Week 15: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 37-36
    Ranked - 18
    Enough cannot be said about the Cowboys collapse to the Packers at home last Sunday. They still control their own destiny in the division, but that's about all they seem to be in control of these days.

Week 16: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 24-23
    Ranked - 15
    The playoff picture for the Cowboys is very simple - beat the Eagles to win the NFC East or lose and go home to an offseason full of the same old questions.

Week 17: Lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 24-22

Final Ranking: 14

Tomorrow, the 2013 Baltimore Ravens...

Season Recap - 2011 Dallas Cowboys

Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 3^rd Place in the NFC East
2012 Draft Position: 14^th

Preseason Ranking: 14

Week 1: Lost at the New York Jets, 27-24
    Ranked - 21
    Talk about accomplishing what has never been done before! For the first time in franchise history the Cowboys lost a game they had been leading by 14 or more points in the fourth quarter. The mistakes they made in the last few minutes - blocked punt, bone-headed interception - are the kinds of mistakes 6-10 teams make. Dallas is by no means out of it, but if they can’t stop their late-game miscues, a 1-4 start to 2011 is not out of the question.

Week 2: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 27-24
    Ranked - 22
    As impressive and gutsy as any comeback win you will ever see, Dallas should not have been behind the 49ers to begin with. Injuries have taken a toll on them and it is still yet uncertain whether Romo or Austin or Jones or Bryant will be in uniform when their Monday Night matchup against the division-leading Redskins kicks off. Are the Cowboys better than 22nd in the league? Absolutely, but only if they can weather the early season storm of injuries.

Week 3: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 18-16
    Ranked - 17
    Note to self: Kickers, although slow and dangerous to put on the football field, can still serve a purpose. Signed, Jason Garrett.

Week 4: Lost to the Detroit Lions, 34-30
    Ranked - 20
    Romo better decide if he is going to be a hero or a goat coming out of the bye week. He's been both extremes this season. Truth is somewhere in the middle, which is why 8-8 may be the best this team can hope for unless the boneheaded mental mistakes are stopped sooner rather than later.

Week 5: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 16
    The bye week gave Tony Romo time to decide if he really is a goat or a hero. Against a suspect Patriots defense this weekend, he'll let us know which direction he is headed… at least for one week.

Week 6: Lost at the New England Patriots, 20-16
    Ranked - 20     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Owner Jerry Jones: You say this has been just another typical day for you, huh? 
    Tony Romo: NO! It's been better than most.

Week 7: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 34-7
    Ranked - 15
    The Cowboys should beat teams like the Rams by 27. I'll believe they have turned a corner if they come out of Philadelphia with a win Sunday night.

Week 8: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 34-7
    Ranked - 19
    Seriously, Dallas? THAT was your effort against the Eagles on Sunday?

Week 9: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 23-13
    Ranked - 15
    The Cowboys are beating the teams they should beat and losing to the teams they should lose to. An 8-8 finish seems about right, unfortunately.

Week 10: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 44-7
    Ranked - 11
    Dallas is in the easiest part of their schedule… and they need to continue to make the most of it.

Week 11: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 27-24
    Ranked - 11
    If Dallas can get by suddenly hot Miami, the NFC East will be theirs to lose.

Week 12: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 20-19
    Ranked - 10
    The Cowboys are in charge of the division now, but with two games remaining against the second-place Giants, this race is far from over.

Week 13: Lost at the Arizona Cardinals, 19-13
    Ranked - 10
    What a unique way to lose – icing your own kicker? Awesome. That has to be some kind of record!

Week 14: Lost to the New York Giants, 37-34
    Ranked - 14
    The Cowboys should be 9-4, but terrible mental mistakes have taken the wind out of their sails. A Saturday night tilt against the Buccaneers will either get them back on track or kill any fading playoffs hopes they still have left.

Week 15: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-15
    Ranked - 10
    The Cowboys haven’t clinched anything yet. With the Eagles and Giants remaining on the schedule, 8-8 is just as likely, if not more likely, than 10-6.

Week 16: Lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 20-7
    Ranked - 11
    The season should not have come down to a one-game playoff just to get into the postseason tournament. The Cowboys have one more chance to prove themselves - or to continue their reign as the kings of underachievement.

Week 17: Lost at the New York Giants, 31-14


Final Ranking: 16


Tomorrow, the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles...

Tournament of Past Champions ~ Elite 4 Matchup – Battle of the ‘70s

Like the Green Bay Packers, the Mythical bracket champion 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers are quite familiar with championship games. The last of the great Steelers teams of the 70’s, the ’79 Steelers have alone among their franchise brethren emerged from the bracket competition of Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions. Led by an experienced Terry Bradshaw, the fleet-footed and powerful Franco Harris and a dominating defense, Pittsburgh fought their way through round after round of tournament action.

Entering the tournament feeling disrespected at being a 20-seed (earned by a less than scintillating 12-4 regular season record), the ’79 Steelers soon proved they were a team to be reckoned with. A dominating, opening round 26-17 victory over the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles gave way to a gut-check, 17-16 win over the 1992 Buffalo Bills- a matchup in which the Steelers only managed to win 8 of the 20 simulations outright.

Pittsburgh recovered in round three by knocking out the 1992 Dallas Cowboys (no less) in a 16-10 defensive battle. A Fortunate 16 round defeat of the 1963 San Diego Chargers propelled them into the Mythical bracket championship game against the veteran 1949 Philadelphia Eagles. 20 gritty simulations later, the ’79 Steelers walked away with a narrow 14-12 victory and moved on to face the 1977 Dallas Cowboys in the Elite 4.

For their part, the Dauntless bracket champion 1977 Dallas Cowboys came into the tournament seeded eighth and their defense made quick work of their first round opponent, the 1965 AFL Champion Buffalo Bills. At the final gun, the Cowboys moved onto round two with a 17-7 win. There they faced one of the fabled Cleveland teams of the late ‘40s, but Dallas handled the ’47 Browns easily, 14-10.

The undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins stood between the Cowboys and a spot in the Fortunate 16. Defense prevailed for Dallas again and the top-seeded Dolphins were undefeated no more- swept from the tournament by the score of 17-14. Following the victory over the Dolphins, the 1994 San Francisco 49ers ended up being a strong, yet beatable team, and Dallas advanced to the Dauntless bracket championship game with another 17-14 victory.

The 1967 Oakland Raiders remained Dallas’ last contest in bracket competition. Despite their offensive capabilities, the Cowboys shut down Oakland’s passing game to clinch the Dauntless bracket championship with a narrow 16-14 win.

Now, on a simulated neutral field, the second of the Elite 4 Tournament of Past Champions matchups gets underway, featuring the 20-seeded 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers vs the 8-seeded 1977 Dallas Cowboys.

First Quarter:

Pittsburgh took the opening kickoff and set out immediately to show the Dallas defense they weren’t afraid of them. Power runs, both inside and outside, kept the Cowboys guessing. A 20-yard play-action pass to Lynn Swann set the Steelers up for a field goal and they took an early 3-0 lead.

Dallas failed to move the ball in response and quarterback Roger Staubach was hit from behind and fumbled for the game’s first turnover. Four plays later Franco Harris pounded the ball in from the three-yard line and Pittsburgh maintained a solid, 10-0 lead as the first quarter came to a close.

End of First Quarter: Pittsburgh 10, Dallas 0

Second Quarter:

The Steelers defense continued to dominate and forced Dallas into three successive three-and-outs. By contrast, the Pittsburgh offense moved the ball at will against the Cowboys defense. A field goal early in the quarter expanded Pittsburgh’s lead to 13 and another with six minutes to go in the first half put the Steelers up 16-0. Dallas, however, refused to lie down before their foes.

Roger Staubach opened up Dallas’ two-minute drill early and hit seven straight passes before connecting with Drew Pearson on a fade route to the back corner of the end zone to give Dallas their first score of the game as the half ended.

Halftime: Pittsburgh 16, Dallas 7

Third Quarter:

The Cowboys received the second-half kickoff and went right back to work. The Steelers, suddenly unable to stop Dallas’ passing attack, fell back into nickel and dime coverages, but Staubach still carved them up with his precision passes. Seven minutes into the quarter, Staubach connected with Tight End Billy Joe Dupree across the middle for his second touchdown of the game. The Steelers defense walked off the field shouting at each other, angry that their early 16-0 lead had nearly been squandered.

The Steelers took possession of the ball and responded to the Cowboys score with a heavy dose of Franco Harris. The powerful running back moved the chains time and time again, helped by a few key play-action pass conversions on third down. The Cowboys defense looked winded as the third quarter came to a close, despite being down by only two points.

End of Third Quarter: Pittsburgh 16, Dallas 14

Fourth Quarter:

The Steelers kept their running game going into the fourth quarter and Dallas had no answer for their powerful rushing attack. Franco Harris broke two tackles in the middle of the line and bounced the ball to the outside where he scampered 24 yards for another touchdown. Dallas, down by two scores with time running out, went into hurry-up mode once again, but Pittsburgh’s relentless pass rush forced Staubach to scramble out of the pocket and throw the ball away. More incompletions led to a stalled Dallas drive and they punted with six minutes left to play.

Pittsburgh once again relied on the power of their offensive line and ended the game with kneel downs after they moved the chains three times against the winded Dallas defense.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 23, Dallas 14

Congratulations to the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers.

They will now face the 1999 St. Louis Rams to determine Creative Misfortune's Ultimate Champion of Past Champions.

Check back on Thursday to see which of these two great teams will emerge victorious in Creative Misfortune’s final Tournament of Past Champions matchup…

Season Recap - 2010 Dallas Cowboys

Final Record: 6-10

Finished: 3^rd Place in the NFC East

2011 Draft Position: 9^th

Preseason Ranking:   6

Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

Pressure? What are you talking about? There is no pressure on my favorite team to perform at a high level this season. That's crazy talk!

Before we continue this Letter of Misfortune, let me be perfectly clear. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are my favorite team, but not for the reasons you may think. I am not a fan of theirs because of the five Super Bowls they have won (though that doesn’t hurt my loyalty one bit). I cheer for them because of the two Super Bowls they lost in the 70’s to the Pittsburgh Steelers. My dad was a huge Steelers fan when I was growing up and when I learned Dallas was a big rival of Pittsburgh’s, I became a Cowboys fan just to annoy him. Since then, I have followed the ‘Boys through thick (three Super Bowl championships in the early 90’s) and thin (their dreadful 1-15 season Aikman’s rookie year, but hey, at least they beat Washington).

But I assure you I am not a “homer” fan for the Cowboys. They can do wrong, sometimes as much, if not more, than they do right. I laughed last year when Brandon Marshall weaved through half the Cowboys team on his way to a long touchdown. I found it hysterical when Sensabaugh had absolutely no idea Sydney Rice caught that pass in the divisional playoffs. Like a true fan, I watch them whether they are winning 35-7 or getting crushed by some fool singing “Pants on the Ground”, 34-3. You have no idea how much I hate that video. This season, you will see me predict Dallas lose games, depending on their matchups. As with every other team that takes to the field on Sundays, I will both celebrate Dallas’ victories and make fun of their mistakes, because Creative Misfortune is a double-edged sword that tolerates no Homers. I love the Simpsons. But enough about me. On with the post…

Pressure? All their monkeys are off their back, right? Dallas won the division last year by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. They won their first playoff game in over a decade by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. Romo has become a star player. The three-headed running game is among the best in the league. The receiving corps is stacked, even with the near-dead weight of Roy Williams. The offensive line is solid. The defense is strong enough to stonewall the run, skilled enough to defend the pass and mean enough to knock opposing players out. Their kicking game might be a little shaky as they try and convert a kickoff specialist into a true field goal kicker, but this just means more opportunities for Romo and his offense to convert Fourth-and-shorts in opposition territory.

Picked as a favorite to win the Super Bowl by a large number of experts, they better win this year, if no other year. Jerry Jones managed to get Super Bowl XLV to be played in Dallas. Never before has the NFL so aggregiously flirted with home-field advantage in their championship game. Let's just say there was a reason the Super Bowl was played in New Orleans all those years during the Ain't's heyday. Yes, he will make money, regardless of who plays the game, but can you imagine how upset he'll be if the Cowboys are not playing in that game? I mean, all those years he has spent on the sideline learning to be a general manager and a coach would be completely wasted.

Can you imagine somebody other than Dallas playing on behalf of the NFC? Or worse, can you imagine Dallas winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, only to lose the NFC Championship game and not go to the Super Bowl? So can I.

And that’s what scares me.

HOW ‘BOUT DEM COWBOYS!

Week 1: Lost at Washington Redskins, 13-7

Ranked – 15

Words fail me. The Cowboys defense and a brilliant (until the last flag) final drive keep this team from plummeting even further after their inexcusable performance in Washington.

Week 2: Lost to Chicago Bears, 27-20

Ranked – 24

Seriously? Talk about being over-hyped. A trip to Houston will not make the season start any better. If desperation hasn't kicked in by now, it never will. If Dallas doesn't play Houston on Sunday like they played the Saints last season, 2010 could quickly become a wasted year.

Week 3: Defeated the Houston Texans, 27-13

Ranked – 21

Desperation and urgency lead to a solid road victory against the Texans, but has all the momentum already been lost by an early bye week? We'll find out in week 5 when the Titans come to town.

Week 4: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 22

The Cowboys survived the bye week with their coaching staff intact. I'm still undecided if that is a good thing or a bad thing, but a game at home against the struggling Titans should answer that question.

Week 5: Lost to Tennessee Titans, 34-27

Ranked – 22

There are no excuses for losing at home after a bye week. Now the Cowboys all but have to win in Minnesota to have any shot at a home-field Super Bowl.

Week 6: Lost at Minnesota Vikings, 24-21

Ranked – 25

Terrible, terrible coaching by the Dallas staff. How can you allow excessive celebration penalties when your team is below .500? I know, let's celebrate the Cowboys start by dropping their ranking a few more points.

Week 7: Lost to New York Giants, 41-35

Ranked – 28

As if the Cowboys season couldn't get any worse, Romo now out indefinitely with a broken clavicle and they sit a full 3 games back of everybody in their division in the win column.

Week 8: Lost to Jacksonville Jaguars, 35-17

Ranked – 32

The Cowboys have quit on their season. Plain and simple.

Week 9: Lost at Green Bay Packers, 45-7

Ranked – 31

When the best thing that can be said about the game on Sunday night is, "at least Green Bay kicked that one kick-off out of bounds", you know you have problems. Firing Wade Phillips was a good start to improving this team, but the Cowboys are playing for 2011. Their 2010 campaign has gone done in flames. 

Week 10: Defeated the New York Giants, 33-20

Ranked – 28

So, if you could play like that all along, why did you waste half the season?

Week 11: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 35-19

Ranked – 21

Finally. A victory in the billion dollar pleasure dome. Now all the Cowboys have to do is win out, get a lot of help and slide into the playoffs as a wild card. Or they can win just enough to screw up their 2011 draft picks.

Week 12: Lost to New Orleans Saints, 30-27

Ranked – 22

C'mon, Roy! Hold onto the football. All you had to do was fall down WITH THE BALL IN YOUR HANDS and Dallas is on a three-game winning streak. I wonder, where will you be playing next year?

Week 13: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 38-35

Ranked – 22 (ROCKY WEEK!)

           

Dallas Cowboys: We've been your favorite team for over thirty years, and all season you've been sticking it to us, and we wanna know how come! 

            Creative Misfortune: You don't wanna know!

            Dallas Cowboys: We wanna know how come!

            Creative Misfortune: Ya wanna know?

            Dallas Cowboys: WE WANNA KNOW! 

            Creative Misfortune: OK, I'm gonna tell ya! You had the talent to become Super Bowl champions, but instead of that, you quit on your fans and became some cheap, second rate franchise!

            Dallas Cowboys: It's a living.

            Creative Misfortune: IT'S A WASTE OF A FOOTBALL SEASON!

Week 14: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 30-27

Ranked – 23

A valiant effort, but just one more failure on this team's 2010 resume.

Week 15: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 33-30

Ranked – 21

The Cowboys do late-game collapses with style. Sure, they let their division rivals come storming back, but unlike the Giants, Dallas held on to win the game.

Week 16: Lost at Arizona Cardinals, 27-26

Ranked – 24

An extra point doinked off the upright? Yep. Pretty much sums up the entire Cowboy season.

Week 17: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 14-13

Final Rank - 20

Tomorrow, my least favorite team, the 2010 Washington Redskins…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part I

Dallas Cowboys



Pressure? What are you talking about? There is no pressure on my favorite team to perform at a high level this season. That's crazy talk!

Before we continue this Letter of Misfortune, let me be perfectly clear. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are my favorite team, but not for the reasons you may think. I am not a fan of theirs because of the five Super Bowls they have won (though that doesn’t hurt my loyalty one bit). I cheer for them because of the two Super Bowls they lost in the 70’s to the Pittsburgh Steelers. My dad was a huge Steelers fan when I was growing up and when I learned Dallas was a big rival of Pittsburgh, I became a Cowboys fan just to annoy him. Since then, I have followed the ‘Boys through thick (three Super Bowl championships in the early 90’s) and thin (their dreadful 1-15 season Aikman’s rookie year, but hey, at least they beat Washington).

But I assure you I am not a “homer” fan for the Cowboys. They can do wrong, sometimes as much, if not more, than they do right. I laughed last year when Brandon Marshall weaved through half the Cowboys team on his way to a long touchdown. I found it hysterical when Sensabaugh had absolutely no idea Sydney Rice caught that pass in the divisional playoffs. Like a true fan, I watch them whether they are winning 35-7 or getting crushed by some fool singing “Pants on the Ground”, 34-3. You have no idea how much I hate that video. This season, you will see me predict Dallas lose games, depending on their matchups. As with every other team that takes to the field on Sundays, I will both celebrate Dallas’ victories and make fun of their mistakes, because Creative Misfortune is a double-edged sword that tolerates no Homers. I love the Simpsons. But enough about me. On with the post…

Pressure? All their monkeys are off their back, right? Dallas won the division last year by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. They won their first playoff game in over a decade by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. Romo has become a star player. The three-headed running game is among the best in the league. The receiving corps is stacked, even with the near-dead weight of Roy Williams. The offensive line is solid. The defense is strong enough to stonewall the run, skilled enough to defend the pass and mean enough to knock opposing players out. Their kicking game might be a little shaky as they try and convert a kickoff specialist into a true field goal kicker, but this just means more opportunities for Romo and his offense to convert Fourth-and-shorts in opposition territory.

Picked as a favorite to win the Super Bowl by a large number of experts, they better win this year, if no other year. Jerry Jones managed to get Super Bowl XLV to be played in Dallas. Never before has the NFL so aggregiously flirted with home-field advantage in their championship game. Let's just say there was a reason the Super Bowl was played in New Orleans all those years during the Ain't's heyday. Yes, he will make money, regardless of who plays the game, but can you imagine how upset he'll be if the Cowboys are not playing in that game? I mean, all those years he has spent on the sideline learning to be a general manager and a coach would be completely wasted.

Can you imagine somebody other than Dallas playing on behalf of the NFC? Or worse, can you imagine Dallas winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, only to lose the NFC Championship game and not go to the Super Bowl? So can I.

And that’s what scares me.

HOW ‘BOUT DEM COWBOYS!

New York Giants



Didn’t you guys, like, just two years ago, ruin the perfect season of the Patriots? What’s happened since then? Tell me, what?

You became the Super Bowl champions in 2007 by defeating one of the greatest teams in NFL history and have been in a tailspin ever since. In 2008, your record actually improved over your Super Bowl season, but you let the Eagles come to your house and embarrass you in the Divsional playoffs. One-and-done is never good, especially when you have the bye week to prepare and home field advantage. And against the Eagles, no less!

Last season the spiral continued and you fell to an 8-8 record. Not good enough to be good, not bad enough to get better, just kind of blah. Where’s the pride, New York? Where’s the sense of power? You’re not even the best team in New Jersey anymore. You're still better than the Knicks, though, so you have that going for you.

While the younger Manning has matured and is becoming a true NFL quarterback, the rest of your team has aged anything but gracefully. The power running game, a staple of Giants teams of the past, became virtually non-existent in 2009. Injuries and poor play kept you from having a 1,000 yard rusher last year. In 2008 you had two! The last time you failed to get a running back over the 1,000 yard plateau was in 2001, when neither Ron Dayne nor Tiki Barber cracked the 900 yard mark.

As a Cowboys fan, I am all for your struggles, but come on. When you combine the mess in Washington with the quarterback situation in Philadelphia and your own difficulties, the NFC East can no longer be viewed as the powerhouse division in the league.

Stand up, mend your broken bones, and run people over like you’ve done in the past – that was beautiful! But don’t lay down like you did last season… unless Dallas is on the opposite sideline.


Tomorrow, letters to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins...

Hall of Fame Game ~ Prediction Recap and Fantasy Football Result

The Hall of Fame Game played out last night much like you would expect. Dallas looked solid, though would have been even more impressive if their first team offense had come away with a TD at the end of their first drive and they had controlled the ball better. Cincinnati struggled greatly and played very sloppy. Turnovers and penalties hurt them early, often and throughout the game. Whether the Cincinnati offense played their starters or backups, the Dallas defense dominated them, forcing 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, a fumble and a defensive touchdown. If Cincinnati hopes to compete with Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North title, they better get their offense figured out before the season starts.

On Friday I predicted Dallas would come away with a 20-16 victory. Dallas prevailed in a decent game by the final score of 16-7, a little lower than expected. During the regular season I will predict the results of all games. I personally am more focused on getting the winner correct than getting the correct matchup versus any Vegas lines. I also have no illusions about predicting the final scores accurately, since that is nearly impossible with NFL games. My final score predictions are meant to be more of an indication of how close the game itself should be and is a measure of how well the teams stack up against one another. If the final game score is predicted to be 24-23, the two teams are very evenly matched, whereas if the final score prediction is 30-17, one team is clearly better than the other and should have an easy victory. Of course, there are no "easy" victories in the NFL.

Also, as a control value on the games I predict, I will always track how well my predictions stand up against "blind" predictions. Blind predictions are predictions based on no thought being required to choose the winner. The two blind predictions I will use for every game this season will be the following:

1) Control A ~ Home Team Wins, 20-17 (Last season, the home team won 57.7% of the time)

2) Control B ~ Best Record Wins, 20-17; if Records Equal, Home Team wins, 20-17 (Last season, the team with the best record won roughly 60% of the time)

My personal goal is to finish the regular season and playoffs with 70% or better accuracy predicting the winners of each game.

Hall of Fame Game ~ Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup Result*

In a game that ended 16-7, not many fantasy points were to be had. The constant shuffling of players in and out of the game didn't help much for the fantasy scoring either, particularly on Cincinnati's side of the ball. Below are the results of the starting fantasy lineups for each team in the preseason opener. During the regular season, Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football season standings will be updated every Tuesday.

*Note: For this sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the backup players likely to play at least one quarter or more were chosen to compete. All points based on the NFL's official scoring system used for their public, default leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals	pts				pts	Dallas Cowboys
JT O'Sullivan	-1		QB		2	Jon Kitna
Brian Leonard	0		RB1		4	Tashard Choice
Bernard Scott	1		RB2		0	Chris Gronkowski
Jerome Simpson	1		WR1		0	Sam Hurd
Andre Caldwell	0		WR2		0	Titus Ryan
Quan Cosby	1		WR3		2	Kevin Ogletree
Jermaine Gresham	0		TE		6	John Phillips
Dave Rayner	1		K		10	David Buehler
Cincinnati Bengals	11		DEF		22	Dallas Cowboys
Total	14		>>>		46	Total

Tomorrow, Valway returns with letters to the Cincinnati Bengals and his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers... 

Hall of Fame Game ~ Prediction and Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups

Throughout the regular season and playoffs, I will predict the results of NFL matchups and also present each team’s Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football lineup for the week. The fantasy lineups will consist of the most productive players for each team at each position and, just like in real fantasy football (EDITOR’S NOTE: Fantasy football may not be real, ok, but it is reality), there are no substitutions.

If a team’s starting running back gets pulled at the goal-line for the 4th string fullback to vulture the touchdown, then too bad. That team will lose those points in the Creative Misfortune Fantasy matchup. Fantasy standings will be updated every Tuesday and all fantasy scores will be calculated based on the NFL’s official fantasy football scoring system used for their public leagues.

Now, for the first official prediction of the season!
Note: Because this is a pre-season game, this prediction has a plus or minus accuracy of a few points to account for rookie mistakes, general rustiness, reality-show related antics, etc.

Hall of Fame Game Prediction:

	Cincinnati Bengals		16
	Dallas Cowboys		20

Hall of Fame Game Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups*
*Note: For this week’s sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the backup players likely to play at least one quarter or more will be chosen to compete.

Cincinnati Bengals						Dallas Cowboys
JT O'Sullivan			QB			Jon Kitna
Brian Leonard			RB1			Tashard Choice
Bernard Scott			RB2			Chris Gronkowski
Jerome Simpson			WR1			Sam Hurd
Andre Caldwell			WR2			Titus Ryan
Quan Cosby			WR3			Kevin Ogletree
Jermaine Gresham			TE			John Phillips
Dave Rayner			K			David Buehler
Cincinnati Bengals			DEF			Dallas Cowboys

Next week, Hall of Fame Game recap and Letters of Misfortune continue with the AFC North and South divisions...