The Vikings come into Green Bay emboldened by the play of their rookie quarterback, but the Packers return from Chicago eager to take down Minnesota after their successful Bear hunt. Who wins tonight's matchup? It all depends on how well the Vikings can keep Aaron Rodgers contained.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 9. Packers by 8.5, Over/Under 47.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Minnesota Vikings projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.547 - 0.475
Fantasy Projection Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Green Bay Packers projected to win by a fantasy score of 76-68
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Both teams at 2-2, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 5 slate...
Showing posts with label Minnesota Vikings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Vikings. Show all posts
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Season Recap - 2013 Minnesota Vikings
Final Record: 5-10-1
Finished: 4th Place in the NFC North
2014 Draft Position: 8th
Preseason Ranking: 18
Week 1: Lost at the Detroit Lions, 34-24
Ranked - 26
If only Adrian Peterson could throw the ball and play defense, the Vikings would be nigh unstoppable.
Week 2: Lost at the Chicago Bears, 31-30
Ranked - 26
So close… goes to show you they can't win without Adrian Peterson scoring TDs for them.
Week 3: Lost to the Cleveland Browns, 31-27
Ranked - 27
How can you lose to the Browns? At home? Against a second-start quarterback?
Week 4: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 34-27
Ranked - 24
The Vikings get their first win of the season about as far removed from the home fans as they can get!
Week 5: BYE WEEK
Ranked - 26
Josh Freeman is in town! If Freeman starts this weekend, expect a whole lot of AP… not that you would expect anything else from the Vikings at this point, regardless of which no-name player they started at QB.
Week 6: Lost to the Carolina Panthers, 35-10
Ranked - 28
Tough week for the Vikings to play a game…
Week 7: Lost at the New York Giants, 23-7
Ranked - 30
The Vikings should have started Cassell over Freeman. Freeman just was not ready yet and the Vikings could have easily defeated the Giants if they showed any semblance of competance on the offensive side of the ball.
Week 8: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 44-31
Ranked - 30
The QB carousel in Minnesota continues and the defense is starting to buckle under the weight of an offense not going anywhere.
Week 9: Lost at the Dallas Cowboys, 27-23
Ranked - 30
Only the Vikings could lose the game after Romo throws a late 4th quarter interception.
Week 10: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 34-27
Ranked - 28
A great win at home, Minnesota still has to figure out who will be their starting quarterback in 2014. I don't think the right man for the job is currently on the roster today.
Week 11: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 41-20
Ranked - 30
Until the Vikings can figure out their quarterback situation, they will continue to fail.
Week 12: Tied the Green Bay Packers, 26-26
Ranked - 29
When you are ahead by 16 points in the 4th quarter and you end the game tied, that's worse than a loss. A loss would have been better for the Vikings, because the tie is just going to hurt their 2014 draft position.
Week 13: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 23-20
Ranked - 27
Two consecutive ties would have been history… but another overtime win? Meh.
Week 14: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 29-26
Ranked - 29
If Peterson is remotely hurt, the Vikings should just shut him down the rest of the season. Why risk further injury to your star player? Taking Adrian away would also allow them to truly evaluate the talent - or lack thereof - they have at the quarterback position as they prepare for the 2014 draft.
Week 15: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 48-30
Ranked - 25
Who needs Adrian Peterson?
Week 16: Lost at the Cincinnati Bengals, 42-14
Ranked - 25
No chance at the #1 draft pick or the playoffs. The Vikings take on Detroit this week in a meaningless NFC North game.
Week 17: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 14-13
Final Ranking: 25
Tomorrow, the 2013 Buffalo Bills...
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Season Recap - 2011 Minnesota Vikings
Final Record: 3-132012 Draft Position: 3rd
Preseason Ranking: 25
Week 1: Lost at the San Diego Chargers, 24-17
Ranked - 23
There is a new kind of play now allowed in the NFL where the quarterback takes a few steps back and then throws the ball forward to what is called a receiver. The receiver then catches the ball and runs for a few more yards, if possible, thereby advancing closer to the opponent's goal line. Granted, this kind of play seems weird, since it is so much easier to just have the quarterback hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson, but trust me, this so called "passing" play works. In fact, some teams have even turned it into an art form. Maybe the Vikings should try it out and see if it makes a difference.
Week 2: Lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 24-20
Ranked - 26
Two straight weeks, two straight fourth quarter collapses. At least the Vikings are consistent. Defensively, the Vikings have failed to stop anybody for long stretches of time and offensively, the Vikes have struggled to string together successful drives resulting in touchdowns. It will be a long, tough season in Minnesota if their only hope for victory each game is that the defense contains the opposing offense just enough so that Adrian Peterson can breakaway for the winning score. Three more weeks of ineptness and Christian Ponder should be named the starting quarterback.
Week 3: Lost to the Detroit Lions, 26-23
Ranked - 28
Note to self: When up by two touchdowns, let Peterson run the ball. Also, don't forget the game lasts a full 60 minutes. I think that's a new rule this year. Signed, Leslie Frazier.
Week 4: Lost at the Kansas City Chiefs, 22-17
Ranked - 27
Possibly the best of the winless teams, Minnesota needs to improve all aspects of their game starting now if they want to salvage any shred of hope for this season. Another loss should be the last one before Christian Ponder is given the reigns and the experience he will need to lead this team into the future.
Week 5: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 34-10
Ranked - 24
Wow. The Vikings finally managed to hold onto a big first half lead. If they had figured out how to do that earlier this season, they might actually have been relevant the rest of the year.
Week 6: Lost at the Chicago Bears, 39-10
Ranked - 25 Indiana Jones Style Recap
[Christian Ponder stands at midfield following his first game against the Green Bay Packers and talks with Aaron Rodgers]
Aaron Rodgers: You lost today, kid, but that doesn't mean you have to like it.
Week 7: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 33-27
Ranked - 29
One of the best 1-6 teams in the history of the league, Ponder provided a spark for the Vikings on Sunday. Too bad the rest of the team wasn't up to the challenge of playing a full four quarters against the Packers. Three quarters of solid play will never be good enough.
Week 8: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 24-21
Ranked - 25
The Vikings dodged a bullet on Sunday, but at least they have hope for the future with Ponder looking confident at quarterback.
Week 9: BYE WEEK
Ranked - 27
The Vikings have one last shot at the Packers and the NFL has given them a bye week and one extra day to prepare. They will have no excuses when they get blown out this weekend at Lambeau.
Week 10: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 45-7
Ranked - 30
Yes, the Packers are scary good. But on national TV, against a hated division rival, you'd think the Vikings would have mustered a little bit more effort.
Week 11: Lost to the Oakland Raiders, 27-21
Ranked - 30
It's surprising to see the Vikings so bad and in search of an identity after all that has happened with this franchise in the past three years.
Week 12: Lost at the Atlanta Falcons, 24-14
Ranked - 30
The slide continues for a team just two years removed from the NFC Championship game.
Week 13: Lost to the Denver Broncos, 35-32
Ranked - 30
If the Vikings could just win half of the games they were leading at some point, just think how good their record could be.
Week 14: Lost at the Detroit Lions, 34-28
Ranked - 30
The Vikings continue to implode.
Week 15: Lost to the New Orleans Saints, 42-20
Ranked - 32
Drew Brees had a career day in just three quarters against the Vikings. I wouldn’t expect Minnesota to get an interception until 2012.
Week 16: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 33-26
Ranked - 29
That was, quite possibly, the worst ever regular season victory in franchise history.
Week 17: Lost to the Chicago Bears, 17-13
Final Ranking: 29
Tomorrow, the 2011 Cleveland Browns...
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Season Recap - 2010 Minnesota Vikings
Final Record: 6-10
Finished: 4th Place in the NFC North
2011 Draft Position: 12th
Preseason Ranking: 8
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:
To paraphrase a quote from
I won’t bother quoting from the rest of the line, because, frankly, that would be weird, but suffice it to say, my dislike of the Vikings has steadily grown over the decade I have lived here in the frozen north. When I first moved to
As the years went by and the jaded optimism of the typical Vikings fan became more apparent, I started to hope for their team to struggle. When Favre first arrived in town in 2009 and the local media covered his trip to
I know I won’t get my wish for the Vikings to finish with a 3-13 record this year (they play the NFC East, so I’d love for them to beat the Giants, Eagles and Redskins). They are too good to be that woeful, but they will struggle this season. Favre is a year older, another year and an injury slower, and has almost no chance of duplicating the magic of last season. Adrian Peterson is the fumbling man at running back and without Chester Taylor to change things up, he will have to take on more of the load than he has in recent years.
The defense is great, but with the continuing suspension saga surrounding the Williams Wall, the Vikings D could find themselves trying to fill a gaping hole at their center. If the 49ers ability to run the ball on Sunday night is any indication of the Vikings run defense starting to fail, this could truly become a team that needs to win shoot-outs in order to be successful.
At least they’ll have a gunslinger at quarterback. They have that going for them.
Week 1: Lost at New Orleans
Ranked – 13
The magic may have left the building, because the timing and chemistry just doesn't seem to be there. Maybe Favre needs to practice after all. At least they still have Jackson
Week 2: Lost to Miami
Ranked – 21
Age has finally caught up with the Chosen One. The defense should win games when they only allow 7 points, but missed opportunities and untimely miscues have doomed the Vikings before they even managed to get their walkers out.
Week 3: Defeated the Detroit
Ranked – 18
Yay! You beat Detroit
Week 4: BYE WEEK
Ranked – 21
Moss coming back to town to help out a decimated receiving corps? I can't wait to see Favre throw interceptions 50 yards downfield now instead of the 20 yards he's been throwing to the likes of Baskett, Harvin and Lewis.
Week 5: Lost at New York
Ranked – 21
Favre to Moss for #500. That's about all that can be said in a positive manner about the Vikings. Don't bother to mention Favre's harassment scandal, his two fumbles or the pick-6 that ended the game in New York
Week 6: Defeated the Dallas
Ranked – 21
Special teams and defense once again get the Vikings the win. Favre is just going through the motions and Moss so far has had very little impact.
Week 7: Lost at Green Bay
Ranked – 22
Age, broken wheels and poor decisions - by both the quarterback and the coach - have all but doomed the Vikings.
Week 8: Lost at New England Patriots, 28-18
Ranked – 24
I'm beginning to think Chili suddenly realized he is not in charge of this team. Panic seeps from his every pore. Instead of battening down the hatches and guiding the ship to safer waters as great leaders would, he's chuckin' everybody overboard so he can finally, clearly, be recognized as the true captain on a sinking ship.
Week 9: Defeated the Arizona
Ranked – 23
Ha, Ha! Childress remains your coach for at least one more week.
Week 10: Lost at Chicago
Ranked – 26
The season's over. I say fire Brad Childress now and make Brett Favre the offensive coordinator. I mean, seriously, how much worse could it be?
Favre kneels down in the huddle. "Ok, Harvin, you be the bottle cap."
"I don't wanna be the bottle cap."
"Well, what do you want to be?"
"The piece of glass."
"Ok. Intercepted deep pass on three. Ready? BREAK!"
Week 11: Lost to Green Bay
Ranked – 26
Great news! The Vikings are still undefeated in the interim Leslie Frazier era. Bad news. The Vikings have difficulty playing out of doors on the road and their next game is back east in Washington
Week 12: Defeated the Washington
Ranked – 23
That's how you win games with Brett Favre these days- turn him into a "Game Manager" and make him run naked bootlegs to the defense's complete dismay.
Week 13: Defeated the Buffalo
Ranked - 24 (ROCKY WEEK!)
Disillusioned Vikings Fan: Ah, just keep throwing interceptions, Brett...
Week 14: Lost to New York
Ranked – 25
Well, Brett, it was fun while it lasted. Now the Vikings have to turn to Tarvaris Jackson, who single-handedly took out Adrian Peterson on a hand-off. It's usually not a good sign for your future, Tarvaris, when the announcers spend 10 minutes talking about all the available college quarterbacks coming out in the draft.
Week 15: Lost to Chicago
Ranked – 22
Joe Webb may be the future... if the Vikings open the 2011 season running the veer option offense.
Week 16: Defeated the Philadelphia
Ranked – 22
One more game until the nightmare season ends, but at least the 2011 search for a quarterback has gained some positivity. Joe Webb looked quite impressive against Philadelphia
Week 17: Lost at Detroit
Final Rank – 26
Tomorrow, the 2010 Detroit
Friday, September 10, 2010
Thursday Night Football - Recap
Thursday Night Football Prediction Roundup:
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Saints win 14-9)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans dominates the game, but Minnesota scores late to make it interesting.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 45-23. The game is close for the first half, but the Vikes fade down the stretch
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 27-21. New Orleans by 5, Over/Under 48.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans 67% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17
All systems picked the correct winner, but all expected the score to be higher. Default Home Team Wins and Best Record came closest to getting the score right. No system picked the correct 5 point winning margin.
Thursday Night Football - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Result
| Minnesota Vikings | pts | pts | New Orleans Saints | |||
| Brett Favre | 8 | QB | 13 | Drew Brees | ||
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | RB1 | 14 | Pierre Thomas | ||
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | RB2 | 4 | Reggie Bush | ||
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | WR1 | 6 | Marques Colston | ||
| Percy Harvin | 1 | WR2 | 3 | Robert Meachem | ||
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | WR3 | 9 | Devery Henderson | ||
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 13 | TE | 2 | Jeremy Shockey | ||
| Ryan Longwell | 3 | K | 2 | Garrett Hartley | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 2 | DEF | 13 | New Orleans Saints | ||
| Total | 38 | >>> | 66 | Total |
Check back later today for all the remaining fantasy lineups for the Week 1 NFL games...
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Thursday Night Football - Prediction and Starting Fantasy Lineups
IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!
The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion New Orleans Saints take on the Minnesota Vikings down in the bayou.
New Orleans comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. Although a lot of experts (yours truly included) don't think the Saints will repeat as Super Bowl champions, there is no reason to believe they won't go deep into the postseason before their title defense falls short. The Saints enter the season healthy, confident and with the complete support of the beleagured New Orleans community. The only blot on their offseason has been the discussions surrounding Reggie Bush's break-up with Kim Kardashian and the possibility of the Heisman committee stripping him of his trophy. Maybe his play will improve once he no longer has the dead-weight of being known as a Heisman trophy winner hanging around his neck.
By contrast, Minnesota, the team destined to lose on a Brett Favre interception in 2009, comes into the 2010 season reeling. As a resident of Minnesota, I can tell you the local fans here are anything but confident for the 2010 campaign. While the Saints come into this game healthy, confident and supported, the Vikings come in injured, uncertain and lacking the support of all but the most die-hard homer fans.
The Favre drama sapped this team and its fan base of cohesiveness going forward. Injuries, particularly to the wide receiving corps, will keep the Vikings' passing game hit-or-miss until Favre gets comfortable with his receivers. The defense should be solid again this year, but is currently deciding how best to use three cornerbacks to defend against teams like New Orleans that tend to throw out a lot of four wide receiver sets.
Coach Childress remains stubborn as ever. By trading away Sage Rosenfels to the New York Giants last week, he has yoked his cart to the future success or failure of Tarvaris Jackson. If Jackson was the answer, why were the Vikings so concerned Favre might actually stay retired? Local sports radio hosts question Jackson's abilities on a daily basis and his preseason showing has done little to change people's opinion of him. When Favre finally does retire next year (here's hoping), Jackson better be the unequivocal starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. I wonder if Childress will really be willing to stand by his man once Favre is no longer an option?
Enough chit chat. On with the predictions! For every NFL game this season I will do my best to predict the game winner. But what fun would it be to just pick games by myself in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against? To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems:
First, the human systems -
Creative Misfortune's Pick – My pick of who I think will win and my predicted score.
Scottie V’s Pick – My friend, Scottie V, chimes in with his predicted winners and scores.
Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating the spread) with the total points scored equal to or 1 point more than the Over/Under value. In this example (Team A by 5, Over/Under 46), the Vegas Lines pick would be Team A 26, Opponent 20 (thus predicting Team A beats the spread by 1 and equals the Over/Under number). Since the lines offered by Vegas tend to be fairly close to actual results, we'll see how accurate this method is for picking games "straight up" over the course of the season. No Vegas Lines picks will results in obscure scores, such as 22-19.
Next, the computer systems -
Accuscore Pick – The Accuscore pick is based on the computer simulations run by Accuscore, a company affiliated with ESPN. Accuscore computers simulate the games 10,000 times to determine who will be the winner of the game. If Team A wins 64% of the 10,000 simulations, they are picked by Accuscore to win with 64% confidence. Since Accuscore only provides their percent chance winner for free (you must pay for their spread numbers and final score projections), I will use their percentage chance of victory to determine a predicted score for the game, based on my own custom formula. Basically, if a team is predicted to win 53%-55% of the simulations, I will predict them to win their game 20-17. A 65% win percentage would result in a predicted score of 24-13. The biggest predicted margin of victory possible would be an Accuscore win % of 100% and a final score prediction of 37-0. In case of a 50%-50% tie, the Home Team will be predicted to win the game 14-13.
What If Sports SimMatchups – The What If Sports website allows you to simulate upcoming games as many times as you would like with different “offensive playbooks”. To get this computer system's predicted results, I will run 5 simulations for each game (2 with Balanced Offense, 1 with Run Heavy, 1 with Pass Heavy and 1 with West Coast style) then take the average score for each team in those 5 comparisons to get the What If Sports predicted winner and final score projection. Note: Running the What If Sports SimMatchups multiple times will result in a different result almost every time. By comparing 5 different runs, though a mere fraction of a fraction of Accuscore's 10,000+ simulations, we'll see which computer system is more accurate over the course of the season.
And finally, the "blind" control systems -
The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Detroit or St. Louis to beat New Orleans.
Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have scores associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions.
Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict the NFL's default score of 20-17.
Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...
Thursday Night Football Score Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans dominates the game, but Minnesota scores late to make it interesting.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 45-23. The game is close for the first half, but the Vikes fade down the stretch
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 27-21. New Orleans by 5, Over/Under 48.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans 67% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17
Thursday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups
Tomorrow, recapping the Saints-Vikings game plus predictions and fantasy football starting lineups for the remaining slate of Week 1 NFL games...
The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion New Orleans Saints take on the Minnesota Vikings down in the bayou.
New Orleans comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. Although a lot of experts (yours truly included) don't think the Saints will repeat as Super Bowl champions, there is no reason to believe they won't go deep into the postseason before their title defense falls short. The Saints enter the season healthy, confident and with the complete support of the beleagured New Orleans community. The only blot on their offseason has been the discussions surrounding Reggie Bush's break-up with Kim Kardashian and the possibility of the Heisman committee stripping him of his trophy. Maybe his play will improve once he no longer has the dead-weight of being known as a Heisman trophy winner hanging around his neck.
By contrast, Minnesota, the team destined to lose on a Brett Favre interception in 2009, comes into the 2010 season reeling. As a resident of Minnesota, I can tell you the local fans here are anything but confident for the 2010 campaign. While the Saints come into this game healthy, confident and supported, the Vikings come in injured, uncertain and lacking the support of all but the most die-hard homer fans.
The Favre drama sapped this team and its fan base of cohesiveness going forward. Injuries, particularly to the wide receiving corps, will keep the Vikings' passing game hit-or-miss until Favre gets comfortable with his receivers. The defense should be solid again this year, but is currently deciding how best to use three cornerbacks to defend against teams like New Orleans that tend to throw out a lot of four wide receiver sets.
Coach Childress remains stubborn as ever. By trading away Sage Rosenfels to the New York Giants last week, he has yoked his cart to the future success or failure of Tarvaris Jackson. If Jackson was the answer, why were the Vikings so concerned Favre might actually stay retired? Local sports radio hosts question Jackson's abilities on a daily basis and his preseason showing has done little to change people's opinion of him. When Favre finally does retire next year (here's hoping), Jackson better be the unequivocal starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. I wonder if Childress will really be willing to stand by his man once Favre is no longer an option?
Enough chit chat. On with the predictions! For every NFL game this season I will do my best to predict the game winner. But what fun would it be to just pick games by myself in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against? To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems:
First, the human systems -
Creative Misfortune's Pick – My pick of who I think will win and my predicted score.
Scottie V’s Pick – My friend, Scottie V, chimes in with his predicted winners and scores.
Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating the spread) with the total points scored equal to or 1 point more than the Over/Under value. In this example (Team A by 5, Over/Under 46), the Vegas Lines pick would be Team A 26, Opponent 20 (thus predicting Team A beats the spread by 1 and equals the Over/Under number). Since the lines offered by Vegas tend to be fairly close to actual results, we'll see how accurate this method is for picking games "straight up" over the course of the season. No Vegas Lines picks will results in obscure scores, such as 22-19.
Next, the computer systems -
Accuscore Pick – The Accuscore pick is based on the computer simulations run by Accuscore, a company affiliated with ESPN. Accuscore computers simulate the games 10,000 times to determine who will be the winner of the game. If Team A wins 64% of the 10,000 simulations, they are picked by Accuscore to win with 64% confidence. Since Accuscore only provides their percent chance winner for free (you must pay for their spread numbers and final score projections), I will use their percentage chance of victory to determine a predicted score for the game, based on my own custom formula. Basically, if a team is predicted to win 53%-55% of the simulations, I will predict them to win their game 20-17. A 65% win percentage would result in a predicted score of 24-13. The biggest predicted margin of victory possible would be an Accuscore win % of 100% and a final score prediction of 37-0. In case of a 50%-50% tie, the Home Team will be predicted to win the game 14-13.
What If Sports SimMatchups – The What If Sports website allows you to simulate upcoming games as many times as you would like with different “offensive playbooks”. To get this computer system's predicted results, I will run 5 simulations for each game (2 with Balanced Offense, 1 with Run Heavy, 1 with Pass Heavy and 1 with West Coast style) then take the average score for each team in those 5 comparisons to get the What If Sports predicted winner and final score projection. Note: Running the What If Sports SimMatchups multiple times will result in a different result almost every time. By comparing 5 different runs, though a mere fraction of a fraction of Accuscore's 10,000+ simulations, we'll see which computer system is more accurate over the course of the season.
And finally, the "blind" control systems -
The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Detroit or St. Louis to beat New Orleans.
Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have scores associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions.
Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict the NFL's default score of 20-17.
Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...
Thursday Night Football Score Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans dominates the game, but Minnesota scores late to make it interesting.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 45-23. The game is close for the first half, but the Vikes fade down the stretch
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 27-21. New Orleans by 5, Over/Under 48.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans 67% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17
Thursday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups
| Minnesota Vikings | pts | pts | New Orleans Saints | |||
| Brett Favre | 0 | QB | 0 | Drew Brees | ||
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | RB1 | 0 | Pierre Thomas | ||
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | RB2 | 0 | Reggie Bush | ||
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | WR1 | 0 | Marques Colston | ||
| Percy Harvin | 0 | WR2 | 0 | Robert Meachem | ||
| Greg Camarillo | 0 | WR3 | 0 | Devery Henderson | ||
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 0 | TE | 0 | Jeremy Shockey | ||
| Ryan Longwell | 0 | K | 0 | Garrett Hartley | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0 | DEF | 0 | New Orleans Saints | ||
| Total | 0 | ^^^ | 0 | Total |
Tomorrow, recapping the Saints-Vikings game plus predictions and fantasy football starting lineups for the remaining slate of Week 1 NFL games...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part II
Last season Green Bay got everything they could ever hope for from the 2009 Favre-led Vikings (aside from the two losses to Minnesota). A 6-10 record for Minnesota really wouldn’t have done anything for the Packer faithful. They witnessed instead what they should have been hoping for all along - a heart-breaking, season-ending defeat Minnesota fans optimistically denied would happen again, despite having lost multiple Super Bowls and Championship games in the past, all because Favre decided to switch colors.
Packer fans could have only found truly legitimate satisfaction when Favre finished the Vikings’ season with an interception in the NFC Championship Game in the final minutes as he did against New Orleans. The only better situation would have been for the interception to come in the waning seconds of the Super Bowl, but there’s no need to get greedy.
This year, however, things are different. Favre once again played his diva card with all the “will he or won’t he” talk. Favre deciding to play for Minnesota is no longer the feel good story of the NFL. Teams annoyed by his antics will be gunning for him and Green Bay will be no exception. This year no Packer fan in their right mind would want to see Minnesota in the playoffs.
Green Bay is ready to take back control of the NFC North. They are stacked on offense, powerful on defense and have a chip on their shoulder to prove once and for all that Favre may have been great, but he is no longer the hall of fame quarterback he used to be. The two bitter contests with Minnesota this year will decide the division and the Vikings no longer can be considered favorites in both those games.
The Packers are a team to be reckoned with in 2010. They will remind the Vikings what it takes for a franchise to not only make it to the Super Bowl, but also win the game. They are tired of hearing about Brett Favre. They are tired of hearing the Vikings named as Super Bowl contenders. They are tired of losing the division to a swell of Purple Pride.
This season, the Packers have every reason in the world to rise up and knock Minnesota down. They will only have themselves to blame if they fall short and once again toil in the shadow of the Vikings and the great Brett Favre.
To paraphrase a quote from Marion in Raiders of the Lost Ark, “I’ve learned to hate the Vikings in the last ten years.”
I won’t bother quoting from the rest of the line, because, frankly, that would be weird, but suffice it to say, my dislike of the Vikings has steadily grown over the decade I have lived here in the frozen north. When I first moved to Minnesota, the Vikings were a surprising team, going 15-1 en route to a colossal, heart-breaking collapse in the NFC Championship game. I felt bad for them. I really did.
As the years went by and the jaded optimism of the typical Vikings fan became more apparent, I started to hope for their team to struggle. When Favre first arrived in town in 2009 and the local media covered his trip to Winter Park (the Vikings training facility in Eden Prairie, Minnesota) like it was the O. J. Simpson van, it almost seemed cute to see a fan base so infatuated with a player. It was quite annoying this year when the same thing happened after Favre played the “I just don’t know” card until the Vikings upped his contract and sent the three musketeers down to Mississippi to get him.
I know I won’t get my wish for the Vikings to finish with a 3-13 record this year (they play the NFC East, so I’d love for them to beat the Giants, Eagles and Redskins). They are too good to be that woeful, but they will struggle this season. Favre is a year older, another year and an injury slower, and has almost no chance of duplicating the magic of last season. Adrian Peterson is the fumbling man at running back and without Chester Taylor to change things up, he will have to take on more of the load than he has in recent years.
The defense is great, but with the continuing suspension saga surrounding the Williams Wall, the Vikings D could find themselves trying to fill a gaping hole at their center. If the 49ers ability to run the ball on Sunday night is any indication of the Vikings run defense starting to fail, this could truly become a team that needs to win shoot-outs in order to be successful.
At least they’ll have a gunslinger at quarterback. They have that going for them.
Tomorrow, the Letters of Misfortune visit the NFC South...
Monday, August 23, 2010
Sunday Night Football ~ Prediction Recap and Fantasy Football Result
The Vikings celebrated the return of Brett Favre to the starting lineup by letting the San Francisco 49ers run all over their defense to start the game and then allowed their graying quarterback to be sacked badly on one of his four plays. So much for my perfect preseason prediction record.
San Francisco came into the game ready to prove last year's Favre heroics to defeat them were a fluke. The 49ers looked much better in their second preseason game. Though they defeated Indianapolis quite easily their first time out, they did so despite sloppy play from their quarterbacks. Against the Vikings, San Francisco took a step forward in their quest to become NFC West division champions.
Minnesota, on the other hand, looked disinterested, even bored. Perhaps the Favre drama has taken far more out of them than they would like to admit? Now, more than ever, other defenses will be gunning to put Favre down. New Orleans showed last year the Vikings are susceptible to the blitz and San Francisco reminded the league last night that picking up the blitz is not Minnesota's specialty. Although four plays is not nearly enough of a sample size to project how the season will play out with Favre behind center again, Vikings fans have to be a bit concerned by the aggressive way the 49ers harassed their wizened superstar. In a copy-cat league you can bet other teams will be eager to test both Favre's durability and mobility once the regular season gets underway.
On Friday, I predicted the Minnesota Vikings would come away with a 24-20 preseason victory over the 49ers, but San Francisco had different ideas and broke up my perfect prediction streak by upending the Vikings with a very unorthodox football score, 15-10.
The Creative Misfotune Fantasy Matchup proved to be a bit more entertaining. San Francisco played without the benefit of a starting quarterback. Coach Singletary decided to keep back-up quarterback David Carr on the bench, which could have had a serious impact on the Fantasy Matchup result had Minnesota's Sage Rosenfels actually completed more than two of the handful of passes he attempted.
Sunday Night Football - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Result
Despite not playing their second-string quarterback and deciding to use their primary kicker for field goals and extra points the entire game, San Francisco managed to come away with a solid 27-11 fantasy victory, showing their fantasy depth to be nearly three times better than the Vikings.
Tomorrow, letters to the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings...
San Francisco came into the game ready to prove last year's Favre heroics to defeat them were a fluke. The 49ers looked much better in their second preseason game. Though they defeated Indianapolis quite easily their first time out, they did so despite sloppy play from their quarterbacks. Against the Vikings, San Francisco took a step forward in their quest to become NFC West division champions.
Minnesota, on the other hand, looked disinterested, even bored. Perhaps the Favre drama has taken far more out of them than they would like to admit? Now, more than ever, other defenses will be gunning to put Favre down. New Orleans showed last year the Vikings are susceptible to the blitz and San Francisco reminded the league last night that picking up the blitz is not Minnesota's specialty. Although four plays is not nearly enough of a sample size to project how the season will play out with Favre behind center again, Vikings fans have to be a bit concerned by the aggressive way the 49ers harassed their wizened superstar. In a copy-cat league you can bet other teams will be eager to test both Favre's durability and mobility once the regular season gets underway.
On Friday, I predicted the Minnesota Vikings would come away with a 24-20 preseason victory over the 49ers, but San Francisco had different ideas and broke up my perfect prediction streak by upending the Vikings with a very unorthodox football score, 15-10.
The Creative Misfotune Fantasy Matchup proved to be a bit more entertaining. San Francisco played without the benefit of a starting quarterback. Coach Singletary decided to keep back-up quarterback David Carr on the bench, which could have had a serious impact on the Fantasy Matchup result had Minnesota's Sage Rosenfels actually completed more than two of the handful of passes he attempted.
Sunday Night Football - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Result
| Minnesota Vikings | pts | pts | San Francisco 49ers | |||
| Sage Rosenfels | 0 | QB | 0 | David Carr | ||
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | RB1 | 11 | Anthony Dixon | ||
| Darius Reynaud | 0 | RB2 | 1 | Michael Robinson | ||
| Logan Payne | 0 | WR1 | 0 | Jason Hill | ||
| Marko Mitchell | 0 | WR2 | 0 | Kevin Jurovich | ||
| Greg Lewis | 0 | WR3 | 3 | Dominique Ziegler | ||
| Garrett Mills | 1 | TE | 2 | Nate Byham | ||
| Ryan Longwell | 3 | K | 0 | Shane Andrus | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | DEF | 10 | San Francisco 49ers | ||
| Total | 11 | >>> | 27 | Total |
Despite not playing their second-string quarterback and deciding to use their primary kicker for field goals and extra points the entire game, San Francisco managed to come away with a solid 27-11 fantasy victory, showing their fantasy depth to be nearly three times better than the Vikings.
Tomorrow, letters to the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings...
Friday, August 20, 2010
Sunday Night Football ~ Prediction and Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups
For some Friday fun, let's celebrate Brett Favre's return to football by challenging the Vikings to win their Creative Misfortune Sunday Night Football Fantasy matchup (preaseason style) against the San Francisco 49ers.
As with the example Hall of Fame Game fantasy matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals, the starting rosters for this Sunday's game will be chosen based on the players most likely to see some decent playing time. Next week, Creative Misfortune predictions and fantasy matchup lineups will be set for all games to be played, to give you a taste of what to expect throughout the regular season. Since most NFL teams give their starters significant playing time in the third preseason game, at least the first half and into the third quarter, the predictions will not be for who will win the game outright, but for who will have the halftime lead.
Sunday Night Football - Preseason Week 2 - Game Prediction:
Sunday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups*
*Note: Again for this week’s sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the players likely to play at least one quarter or more will be chosen to compete.
Next week, the Letters of Misfortune make their final rounds with visits to the NFC's North and South divisions. Plus, the Sunday Night Football game recap and the final score of this week's Creative Misfortune fantasy matchup...
As with the example Hall of Fame Game fantasy matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals, the starting rosters for this Sunday's game will be chosen based on the players most likely to see some decent playing time. Next week, Creative Misfortune predictions and fantasy matchup lineups will be set for all games to be played, to give you a taste of what to expect throughout the regular season. Since most NFL teams give their starters significant playing time in the third preseason game, at least the first half and into the third quarter, the predictions will not be for who will win the game outright, but for who will have the halftime lead.
Sunday Night Football - Preseason Week 2 - Game Prediction:
| Minnesota Vikings | 24 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 20 |
Sunday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups*
*Note: Again for this week’s sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the players likely to play at least one quarter or more will be chosen to compete.
| Minnesota Vikings | pts | pts | San Francisco 49ers | |||
| Sage Rosenfels | 0 | QB | 0 | David Carr | ||
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | RB1 | 0 | Anthony Dixon | ||
| Darius Reynaud | 0 | RB2 | 0 | Michael Robinson | ||
| Logan Payne | 0 | WR1 | 0 | Jason Hill | ||
| Marko Mitchell | 0 | WR2 | 0 | Kevin Jurovich | ||
| Greg Lewis | 0 | WR3 | 0 | Dominique Ziegler | ||
| Garrett Mills | 0 | TE | 0 | Nate Byham | ||
| Ryan Longwell | 0 | K | 0 | Shane Andrus | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0 | DEF | 0 | San Francisco 49ers | ||
| Total | 0 | ^^^ | 0 | Total |
Next week, the Letters of Misfortune make their final rounds with visits to the NFC's North and South divisions. Plus, the Sunday Night Football game recap and the final score of this week's Creative Misfortune fantasy matchup...
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