Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 15 (2014)

The 5-8 Saints are still battling for supremacy in the NFC South, while the 5-8 Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention. Almost all systems favor New Orleans to get past Chicago and take sole possession of first place in their division. 

Monday Night Game Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 54
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.456 - 0.331
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-82
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Both teams at 5-8, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3


Week 15 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Conference Championship results will be posted on Wednesday. Who punched their ticket to Fantasy Bowl IV?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 14 (2014)

Both the Bears and the Cowboys were embarrassed last Thursday. Now they have another Thursday night game to redeem themselves.

All systems, save the blind Home Team Wins formula, predict the Cowboys to win by an average of six points.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4. Cowboys by 3.5, Over/Under 51
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.560 - 0.336
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-72
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 8-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 14 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 13 (2014)

Happy Thanksgiving! May your team not play like turkeys today!

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions:

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Lions by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.521 - 0.356
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-61
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 7-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.626 - 0.614
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-86
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 8-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.642 - 0.508
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 63-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 7-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 13 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 3 (2014)

With the Monday Night game remaining in week 3, the third week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Both Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections formula exceeded the magical 70% accuracy mark by picking 11 out of 15 games correctly over the weekend (73.3%). They will both stay above the 70% success rate for the week if Chicago prevails in tonight's game.

The Vegas Lines system came in at third place, picking 10 out of 15 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy.

The Home Team Wins formula predicted 9 out of 15 games correctly (60% accuracy, slightly above average). The Pythagorean Theorem formula struggled again this week as it continues to find balance early in the season schedule, only hitting 8 out of 15 games correctly (53.3% accuracy).

The worst prediction performance of the week was turned in by the Best Record Wins formula as a host of 0-2 teams scrambled to break into the win column for the first time all season. As a result, the Best Record Wins formula only predicted 6 out of 15 games correctly for a terrible 40% accuracy mark, by far the worst weekly result of the season.

The systems are divided once again on the Monday Night Football matchup with four system favoring the Bears (Overall PPY, Home/Away PPY, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) and three systems favoring the Jets to win at home (Vegas Lines, Best Record Wins, and Home Team Wins). Either way, I suspect a slow-moving game with few big plays where the first team to score two touchdowns wins.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Chicago Bears at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 2.5, Over/Under 45.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 4. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.565 - 0.473
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 5. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 79-66
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 1-1, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3


Week 3 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Season Recap - 2013 Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears



Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 2nd Place in the NFC North
2014 Draft Position: 14th

Preseason Ranking: 8

Week 1: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 24-21
    Ranked - 6
    A tough, comeback win against an AFC favorite. The Bears may not be flashy, but they do know how to win games.

Week 2: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 31-30
    Ranked - 5
    Good teams find a way to win. The Bears found a way on Sunday.

Week 3: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 40-23
    Ranked - 3
    The Chicago defense is generating points again and the offense is moving the ball better than they have in years.

Week 4: Lost at the Detroit Lions, 40-32
    Ranked - 9
    Chicago may have stumbled in Detroit, but they will have something to say about that later this year when the Lions come back to visit them. But for now…

Week 5: Lost to the New Orleans Saints, 26-18
    Ranked - 11
    Once unstoppable, the Bears have been stopped twice in a row. It's still early, but a few more losses and their season will be gone.

Week 6: Defeated the New York Giants, 27-21
    Ranked - 10
    The Bears nearly let the game against the Giants slip away. You never want to flirt with that late-game Manning magic, but they survived the scare with flying colors.

Week 7: Lost at the Washington Redskins, 45-41
    Ranked - 13
    Cutler's injury definitely puts a damper on Chicago's playoff hopes and their defense getting shellacked for 45 points by RGIII and the Redskins can't help their confidence any.

Week 8: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 14
    Will one week to heal be enough for the Bears?

Week 9: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 27-20
    Ranked - 12
    The Bears win with punishing defensive play and a solid offense.

Week 10: Lost to the Detroit Lions, 21-19
    Ranked - 11
    Like the Packers, injuries have slowed the Bears.

Week 11: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 23-20
    Ranked - 11
    Defense keeps them winning, despite the injuries on offense.

Week 12: Lost at the St. Louis Rams, 42-21
    Ranked - 14
    If the Bears don't have good defense, they will start fading as injuries continue to take their toll.

Week 13: Lost at the Minnesota Vikings, 23-20
    Ranked - 16
    The Bears still have a shot, but losing to Minnesota really hurt their chances for a postseason run.

Week 14: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 45-28
    Ranked - 13
    Is it too early to declare a quarterback controversy in Chicago?

Week 15: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 38-31
    Ranked - 12
    And now the division is theirs to win or lose with two weeks remaining.

Week 16: Lost at the Philadelphia Eagles, 54-11
    Ranked - 16
    The playoff picture for the Bears is very simple - beat the Packers to win the NFC North or lose and go home.

Week 17: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 33-28

Final Ranking: 17

Tomorrow, the 2013 Pittsburgh Steelers...

Season Recap - 2011 Chicago Bears

Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 3^rd Place in the NFC North
2012 Draft Position: 19^th

Preseason Ranking: 15

Week 1: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 30-12
    Ranked - 5
    Can you win a game by 18 points over an elite team with just smoke and mirrors? It sure seems like the Bears stole won at home against the Falcons, even though the scoreboard led you to believe they were in complete control of the game. This weekend's trip to New Orleans will tell us if the Bears are for real or not.

Week 2: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 30-13
    Ranked - 14
    Chicago's week one victory over Atlanta looked like a fluke after their week two loss to New Orleans. Things don't get any better for the Bears when they face off against Green Bay in week three. A loss will put them all but out of the division race if Detroit stays hot.

Week 3: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 27-17
    Ranked - 21
    Note to self: Tell the coaches we need to hand the ball off more. Less chance of getting killed- I mean - sacked on those kinds of plays. Signed, Jay Cutler.

Week 4: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-29
    Ranked - 17
    Forte rushes for over 200 yards with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator? Maybe Cutler will survive the season after all.

Week 5: Lost at the Detroit Lions, 24-13
    Ranked - 18
    The Bears just don’t have any answers for the Lions or the Packers. Maybe they can turn it around this week against the Vikings. If not, the NFC North will be a cold, dark division for them to be in this season.

Week 6: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 39-10
    Ranked - 15     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Jay Cutler studies film of the Tampa Bay defensive secondary, a grim look on his face]
    Jay Cutler: This is it... This is where Brees cashed in last week.
    Johnny Knox: A friend of yours? 
    Jay Cutler: A competitor... he was good. He was very, very good.

Week 7: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 24-18
    Ranked - 12
    Solid win against a solid foe on the soil of some far-flung country. Detroit's stumbles of late have given the Bears some hope.

Week 8: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 11
    The Bears will most likely be the odd team out of the NFC North's three-team race, but they still have potential to slip into the playoffs as the final wild card.

Week 9: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 30-24
    Ranked - 12
    The Bears could be surprisingly good, but they better figure out a way to keep Forte happy without breaking their bank.

Week 10: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 37-13
    Ranked - 6
    Power defense, superb special teams and a solid running game… nothing says Bears football better than these three things coming together in devastating fashion.

Week 11: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 31-20
    Ranked - 6
    Cutler out. Good thing the Bears are winning with defense, special teams and a solid running game.

Week 12: Lost at the Oakland Raiders, 25-20
    Ranked - 8
    Caleb Haine has to play better if the Bears are going to make a run at a Wild Card spot.

Week 13: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 10-3
    Ranked - 14
    For a while Martz had figured out how to make the Bears offense successful… but the losses of Forte and Cutler have brought back out his pass-wacky style.

Week 14: Lost at the Denver Broncos, 13-10
    Ranked - 15
    Without a quarterback and a running back the Bears are pretty much dead.

Week 15: Lost to the Seattle Seahawks, 38-14
    Ranked - 15
    Who would have thought Cutler was so valuable?

Week 16: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 35-21
    Ranked - 18
    Had injuries not derailed their season, Chicago could have been in the dance as a Wild Card.

Week 17: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 17-13


Final Ranking: 17


Tomorrow, the 2011 Tennessee Titans...

Season Recap - 2010 Chicago Bears

Final Record: 11-5 (1-1)

Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC North; Lost in the NFC Championship Game

2011 Draft Position: 30^th

Preseason Ranking:   23
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

Playing quarterback in the NFL is hard. Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears has proven even more difficult than for other teams around the league. Few teams have quite the quarterback carousel the Chicago Bears have. When Chicago traded Kyle Orten to the Broncos last year in exchange for Jay Cutler, lots of fans believed Cutler would be the spark at quarterback this team has been sorely missing throughout most of their recent history. Unfortunately for Chicago fans, Cutler proved to be a turnover machine, not quite up to Jake Delhomme standards last year, but he still hit way too many cornerbacks and safeties between the numbers to be effective.

This year, Cutler is still the man in Chicago, but who will be the second-string quarterback is another matter. Back-up quarterback Caleb Heine sprained his shoulder in the preseason game against San Diego and will not be ready to play again until the regular season starts. This left only Cutler and rookie quarterback Dan LeFevour in camp and healthy enough to practice and play.

Chicago approached Todd Collins to help add some experienced depth to the position, but Collins turned down the Bears. Collins wanted a bit of a signing bonus to help keep the Chicago QB carousel spinning, but the Bears only offered a veteran minimum contract. Collins wasn't the first quarterback to turn down the Bears. Retired Trent Green said no to them (and with his concussion history starting behind a struggling offensive line that has to play Minnesota and Green Bay twice would not have been a good decision) as well as Damon Huard.

Unable to find experienced veteran back-ups willing to sign on with them, Chicago signed journeyman quarterback Matt Gutierrez late last week to a one-year deal. Gutierrez has great accuracy. Since signing with New England in 2007, he has not thrown an incomplete pass in the NFL, completing a solid two out of two passes for 18 yards and no touchdowns. The Bears need a quarterback able to hit their receivers consistently instead of opposing players if they ever hope to challenge either the Minnesota Vikings or the Green Bay Packers for the division title.

Until they make the playoffs and are able to go into an offseason without questions surrounding the quarterback position, the carousel will continue to spin in Chicago.

Week 1: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 19-14

Ranked – 11

Only a Cutler-led Mike Martz offense could outgain a team by so much and still have so little to show for it. Wheel patterns aside, this team needs to improve if it hopes to stay high in the rankings.

Week 2: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 27-20

Ranked – 5

You may have been granted a gift in week 1, but week 2 you ripped the heart out of Cowboys fans and improved to an impressive 2-0. Who would have thought the Monday Night matchup in week 3 against Green Bay might be for the overall #1 ranking and the inside track to the NFC North title?

Week 3: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 20-17

Ranked – 2

You now stand as the sole remaining undefeated team in the NFC. After a tough victory over your bitter, division rivals, you have solidified your spot among the Creative Elite until the INT Cutler of old re-appears and drives you from these hallowed ranks.

Week 4: Lost at New York Giants, 17-3

Ranked – 11

Through the fog of sacks and concussions, can the Bears even remember what it felt like to be 3-0 so, so long ago?

Week 5: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 23-6

Ranked – 5

Say what you will about this team, but they find ways to win games, regardless of how terrible they are playing at any given time.

Week 6: Lost to Seattle Seahawks, 23-20

Ranked -12

The Bears may have the best record in the NFC North, but they are far from claiming the division crown for themselves after dropping two of their last three.

Week 7: Lost to Washington Redskins, 17-14

Ranked – 18

The offense is killing a team the defense is doing everything it can to save.

Week 8: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 17

I hope Chicago remembered how to run the ball during their bye week. The Bills are itching for a win and if Mad Martz and Cutler can't reign themselves in, Buffalo will ruin Chicago's day.

Week 9: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 22-19

Ranked – 12

Tough contests against Minnesota and Miami will tell us if Chicago truly learned anything during their bye week. A victory over the Bills is still just that - a victory over the Bills. Nothing to write home about.

Week 10: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 27-13

Ranked – 11

Even at 6-3, few believe Chicago is actually for real. With the Vikings now all but out of it, the Bears can focus all their efforts on the Packers.

Week 11: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 16-0

Ranked – 10

Week 17. Chicago at Green Bay. It might just be for all the marbles in the NFC North.

Week 12: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 31-26

Ranked – 7

Wait a minute. The Bears aren't actually for real, are they?

Week 13: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 24-20

Ranked – 6 (ROCKY WEEK!)

            Jay Cutler: I can't do it. 

Coach Smith: What?

            Jay Cutler: I can't beat him. 
           

Coach Smith: Brady? 

           

Jay Cutler: Yeah. I been out there walkin' around, thinkin'. I mean, who am I kiddin'? I ain't even in the guy's league. 

           

Coach Smith: What are you gonna do? 

           

Jay Cutler: I don't know. 

           

Coach Smith: You worked so hard. 

           

Jay Cutler: Yeah, that don't matter. 'Cause I was nobody before.

           

Coach Smith: Don't say that. 

            

Jay Cutler: Ah come on, Coach, it's true. I was nobody. But that don't matter either, you know? 'Cause I was thinkin', it really don't matter if I lose this game. It really don't matter if this guy lights us up, either. 'Cause all we wanna do is stay with them late into the fourth quarter. Few teams ever stay with the Patriots late into the game, and if we can stay with them, you see, and that clock reaches zero and we're still standin', we're gonna know for the first time this season, see, that we aren't just another pretender franchise from the NFC.

Week 14: Lost to New England Patriots, 36-7

Ranked – 9

Your field. Your weather. Your total humiliation. The Bears have to be kicking themselves after getting schooled by Tom Brady and his high-powered collection of diminutive receivers.

Week 15: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 40-14

Ranked – 11

The first team to clinch their division. Congrats. But it's not like beating the Vikings is anything worth bragging about this season.

Week 16: Defeated the New York Jets, 38-34

Ranked – 6

The Bears still have something to play for and the last team they want to see in the playoffs is Green Bay.

Week 17: Lost at Green Bay Packers, 10-3

Ranked – 6

The Bears should never have allowed the Packers to get into the dance, but the Saints may ultimately prove to be their undoing.

Wild Card Game: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 5

The Bears cannot afford to overlook Seattle, but their defense should be strong enough to handle any team they face in Chicago. Their offense is the weak link in their Super Bowl quest.

Divisional Game: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 35-24

Ranked – 4

The Bears looked impressive during the first three quarters of their divisional matchup against the Seahawks, but Seattle is far from a championship team. Chicago lost focus up 28-0 and had to scramble in the end to win 35-24 and avoid a historic collapse. Against the Packers, anything less than a full 60 minutes of effort will not be enough to guarantee a trip to Texas.

Championship Game: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 21-14

Final Rank - 4

Tomorrow, the 2010 AFC Champions – the Pittsburgh Steelers…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part I

Chicago Bears



Playing quarterback in the NFL is hard. Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears has proven even more difficult than for other teams around the league. Few teams have quite the quarterback carousel the Chicago Bears have. When Chicago traded Kyle Orten to the Broncos last year in exchange for Jay Cutler, lots of fans believed Cutler would be the spark at quarterback this team has been sorely missing throughout most of their recent history. Unfortunately for Chicago fans, Cutler proved to be a turnover machine, not quite up to Jake Delhomme standards last year, but he still hit way too many cornerbacks and safeties between the numbers to be effective.

This year, Cutler is still the man in Chicago, but who will be the second-string quarterback is another matter. Back-up quarterback Caleb Heine sprained his shoulder in the preseason game against San Diego and will not be ready to play again until the regular season starts. This left only Cutler and rookie quarterback Dan LeFevour in camp and healthy enough to practice and play.

Chicago approached Todd Collins to help add some experienced depth to the position, but Collins turned down the Bears. Collins wanted a bit of a signing bonus to help keep the Chicago QB carousel spinning, but the Bears only offered a veteran minimum contract. Collins wasn't the first quarterback to turn down the Bears. Retired Trent Green said no to them (and with his consussion history starting behind a struggling offensive line that has to play Minnesota and Green Bay twice would not have been a good decision) as well as Damon Huard.

Unable to find experienced veteran back-ups willing to sign on with them, Chicago signed journeyman quarterback Matt Gutierrez late last week to a one-year deal. Gutierrez has great accuracy. Since signing with New England in 2007, he has not thrown an incomplete pass in the NFL, completing a solid two out of two passes for 18 yards and no touchdowns. The Bears need a quarterback able to hit their receivers consistently instead of opposing players if they ever hope to challenge either the Minnesota Vikings or the Green Bay Packers for the division title.

Until they make the playoffs and are able to go into an offseason without questions surrounding the quarterback position, the carousel will continue to spin in Chicago.

Detroit Lions



When you've only managed to win nine games during the past three seasons, including an NFL record 0-16 run in 2008, it is hard to find something to be positive about. The long-time NFC North cellar dwellers have had little to smile about while the league has celebrated the Minnesota Vikings and their quarterback drama, the Green Bay Packers emergence as an elite team and even the Chicago Bears and their "will they be good or won't they" discussions.

For Detroit, the answer has recently been "they won't" and the Lions have done precious little to deny the arguments against them. 2010 shapes up as another difficult year for the Lions. Not only do they have six division games against strong opponents who love to kick them when they are down, they also have to play four games against the AFC East, another strong division. In those ten games, the Lions will be lucky to win two, despite the improvements to their defense and the increasing maturity of Mathew Stafford at quarterback.

The remaining six games of their schedule don't get any easier as they are matched up against the NFC East. Though not as strong as it has been in recent years, all the teams in the NFC East will give the Lions fits. Detroit rounds out their schedule with games against recent powerhouses St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Finally a bit of a breather for them.

All signs point to another dismal year in Detroit. But, hey, at least their uniforms look nice and they don't have to play outside when another bitter, Michigan winter hits town.


Check back later today for a recap of the Sunday Night Game and the results of the sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers...