Hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving. Here are some NFL picks for you to peruse while you avoid the Black Friday crowds and shop for great deals online...
Sunday Game Predictions:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 11
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 9. Panthers by 8.5, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 8-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 7. Browns by 7, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Browns better at 4-7
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Colts by 4, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 7-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Broncos by 4.5, Over/Under 48.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Both teams at 9-2, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1. Pick Em, Home Team Wins! Over/Under 49.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 6-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Jets by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 2.5, Over/Under 39
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 5-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles by 3, Over/Under 48.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 7-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills by 3, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 4-7
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 8. 49ers by 8, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 7-4
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 9. Patriots by 9, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 8-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2. Chargers by 2, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 7-4
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 1. Giants by 1, Over/Under 45.5
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3. Giants better at 4-7
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Thanksgiving Day - Week 13 (2013)
Happy Thanksgiving! Turkey Day picks are below. Enjoy!
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Lions by 6, Over/Under 50
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9. Cowboys by 9, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens by 2.5, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Both teams at 5-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 13 matchups...
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Lions by 6, Over/Under 50
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9. Cowboys by 9, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 6-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens by 2.5, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Both teams at 5-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 13 matchups...
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 12 (2013)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Houston Texans (previous: 28)
The Texans have completely missed their playoff window. Blow them up now and start over in 2014.
# 31 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 31)
The Falcons showed some life against the Saints.
# 30 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
Two wins and the Jaguars are on the move! At least, I'm sure, Maurice Jones-Drew hopes to be on the move once the offseason gets here.
# 29 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 30)
When you are ahead by 16 points in the 4th quarter and you end the game tied, that's worse than a loss. A loss would have been better for the Vikings, because the tie is just going to hurt their 2014 draft position.
# 28 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
RGIII just isn't the same and the Redskins are doing little to help him gain his confidence back.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
Interesting that Tampa Bay is suddenly playing like they care and want to win. Just think if they had played like that all season?
# 26 - New York Giants (previous: 26)
The Giants 4-game winning streak couldn't have been snapped by a better team.
# 25 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 25)
Oakland is still one or two years away from truly challenging the better teams in the AFC.
# 24 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 23)
Wow, Josh Gordan! An impressive performance on an otherwise humbling day for the Browns.
# 23 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 22)
At 4-7, the Bills have virtually no shot to make the playoffs, especially with a lot of road games remaining on their schedule.
# 22 - New York Jets (previous: 17)
The Jets showed a lot of promise, but now they seem to be finally playing as well as everybody thought they would.
# 21 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 24)
After a very slow start, Pittsburgh has turned the corner and is now driving for a playoff spot. I doubt they can get there, though.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 16)
The Dolphins lost a heartbreaker against Carolina and are now fading fast in the AFC East division race.
# 19 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 21)
I don't know what has gotten into the Rams, but they are playing outstanding football lately.
# 18 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 19)
San Diego won a shootout over the Chiefs, which is good, but they should be concerned that their defense gave up 38 points to Kansas City, a strong team not known for their offensive prowess.
# 17 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 20)
Without an offense, the Ravens have no shot of making the playoffs, let alone repeating as Super Bowl champions.
# 16 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 18)
The Titans look good enough to finish the season 8-8 or 9-7 and just miss the playoffs.
# 15 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 15)
Because they were so far behind, a tie is as good as a win… but then they had the lead in the final minutes of the game and failed to hold on to it, so the tie is as good as a loss, too.
# 14 - Chicago Bears (previous: 11)
If the Bears don't have good defense, they will start fading as injuries continue to take their toll.
# 13 - Detroit Lions (previous: 10)
With the division wide open for their taking, the Lions laid an egg at home against the woeful Buccaneers.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 12)
They fell to second place in the NFC East during the bye week, but they are still very much alive - and may be the team to beat - in the division with only five games remaining.
# 11 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 14)
A huge win on the road and a clutch performance by Tony Romo on the final drive of the game. Wins like that can propel a team to greatness.
# 10 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 8)
Could the loss of Reggie Wayne really be that big of a hit to this team's psyche? The Colts have not looked the same since they defeated Denver weeks ago.
# 9 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 13)
The Cardinals are quietly becoming the team nobody wants to face.
# 8 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 7)
A late season bye week should be just the refresher the Bengals need to make their final push towards a division title and the AFC playoffs.
# 7 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 9)
After a few rough weeks, San Francisco seems to have gotten back on course, but the passing game is still an issue and the biggest reason they will be nothing more than a wild card at best.
# 6 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 5)
Cam Newton is willing this team into the playoffs.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - New England Patriots (previous: 6)
The Patriots are winning with no-name players, great coaching and outstanding, clutch play from the few superstars they do have left on the roster.
# 4 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 3)
Two straight losses and a potential third straight when the Broncos come to town. If they keep losing, people will soon forget their 9-0 start.
# 3 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
The Saints didn't have quite as long to prepare for their epic Monday Night matchup with the Seahawks as Seattle did, but they should come to the Pacific Northwest eager to silence the 12th Man.
# 2 - Denver Broncos (previous: 2)
The Broncos may have lossed in New England, but they learned two very powerful lessons in that game… 1) they can run the ball effectively even when the passing game struggles and 2) take the wind!
# 1 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 1)
A bye week and an extra day to prepare should give Seattle more than enough opportunity to gain a complete stranglehold of home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs… unless Drew Brees has something to say about it.
Week 12 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - New York Jets (-5), Miami Dolphins (-4), Houston Texans (-4), Detroit Lions (-3), Chicago Bears (-3)
The Biggest Movers - Arizona Cardinals (+4), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Baltimore Ravens (+3), Pittsburgh Steelers (+3), San Francisco 49ers (+2)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Seattle Seahawks (1), Denver Broncos (2), Philadelphia Eagles (12), Green Bay Packers (15), Oakland Raiders (25), New York Giants (26), Atlanta Falcons (31)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 12
Seattle Seahawks
Check back later today for Thanksgiving Day game predictions...
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Houston Texans (previous: 28)
The Texans have completely missed their playoff window. Blow them up now and start over in 2014.
# 31 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 31)
The Falcons showed some life against the Saints.
# 30 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
Two wins and the Jaguars are on the move! At least, I'm sure, Maurice Jones-Drew hopes to be on the move once the offseason gets here.
# 29 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 30)
When you are ahead by 16 points in the 4th quarter and you end the game tied, that's worse than a loss. A loss would have been better for the Vikings, because the tie is just going to hurt their 2014 draft position.
# 28 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
RGIII just isn't the same and the Redskins are doing little to help him gain his confidence back.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
Interesting that Tampa Bay is suddenly playing like they care and want to win. Just think if they had played like that all season?
# 26 - New York Giants (previous: 26)
The Giants 4-game winning streak couldn't have been snapped by a better team.
# 25 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 25)
Oakland is still one or two years away from truly challenging the better teams in the AFC.
# 24 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 23)
Wow, Josh Gordan! An impressive performance on an otherwise humbling day for the Browns.
# 23 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 22)
At 4-7, the Bills have virtually no shot to make the playoffs, especially with a lot of road games remaining on their schedule.
# 22 - New York Jets (previous: 17)
The Jets showed a lot of promise, but now they seem to be finally playing as well as everybody thought they would.
# 21 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 24)
After a very slow start, Pittsburgh has turned the corner and is now driving for a playoff spot. I doubt they can get there, though.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 16)
The Dolphins lost a heartbreaker against Carolina and are now fading fast in the AFC East division race.
# 19 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 21)
I don't know what has gotten into the Rams, but they are playing outstanding football lately.
# 18 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 19)
San Diego won a shootout over the Chiefs, which is good, but they should be concerned that their defense gave up 38 points to Kansas City, a strong team not known for their offensive prowess.
# 17 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 20)
Without an offense, the Ravens have no shot of making the playoffs, let alone repeating as Super Bowl champions.
# 16 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 18)
The Titans look good enough to finish the season 8-8 or 9-7 and just miss the playoffs.
# 15 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 15)
Because they were so far behind, a tie is as good as a win… but then they had the lead in the final minutes of the game and failed to hold on to it, so the tie is as good as a loss, too.
# 14 - Chicago Bears (previous: 11)
If the Bears don't have good defense, they will start fading as injuries continue to take their toll.
# 13 - Detroit Lions (previous: 10)
With the division wide open for their taking, the Lions laid an egg at home against the woeful Buccaneers.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 12)
They fell to second place in the NFC East during the bye week, but they are still very much alive - and may be the team to beat - in the division with only five games remaining.
# 11 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 14)
A huge win on the road and a clutch performance by Tony Romo on the final drive of the game. Wins like that can propel a team to greatness.
# 10 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 8)
Could the loss of Reggie Wayne really be that big of a hit to this team's psyche? The Colts have not looked the same since they defeated Denver weeks ago.
# 9 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 13)
The Cardinals are quietly becoming the team nobody wants to face.
# 8 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 7)
A late season bye week should be just the refresher the Bengals need to make their final push towards a division title and the AFC playoffs.
# 7 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 9)
After a few rough weeks, San Francisco seems to have gotten back on course, but the passing game is still an issue and the biggest reason they will be nothing more than a wild card at best.
# 6 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 5)
Cam Newton is willing this team into the playoffs.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - New England Patriots (previous: 6)
The Patriots are winning with no-name players, great coaching and outstanding, clutch play from the few superstars they do have left on the roster.
# 4 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 3)
Two straight losses and a potential third straight when the Broncos come to town. If they keep losing, people will soon forget their 9-0 start.
# 3 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
The Saints didn't have quite as long to prepare for their epic Monday Night matchup with the Seahawks as Seattle did, but they should come to the Pacific Northwest eager to silence the 12th Man.
# 2 - Denver Broncos (previous: 2)
The Broncos may have lossed in New England, but they learned two very powerful lessons in that game… 1) they can run the ball effectively even when the passing game struggles and 2) take the wind!
# 1 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 1)
A bye week and an extra day to prepare should give Seattle more than enough opportunity to gain a complete stranglehold of home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs… unless Drew Brees has something to say about it.
Week 12 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - New York Jets (-5), Miami Dolphins (-4), Houston Texans (-4), Detroit Lions (-3), Chicago Bears (-3)
The Biggest Movers - Arizona Cardinals (+4), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Baltimore Ravens (+3), Pittsburgh Steelers (+3), San Francisco 49ers (+2)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Seattle Seahawks (1), Denver Broncos (2), Philadelphia Eagles (12), Green Bay Packers (15), Oakland Raiders (25), New York Giants (26), Atlanta Falcons (31)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 12
Seattle Seahawks
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Week 12 Results (2013) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
The fantasy football regular season has come to end! After a lot of close games over the weekend, the playoff schedule has been set.
In week 12, the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers managed to win a fantasy game they lost or tied in real life. Both teams punched their tickets to the post-season with their wins.
High score of the week goes to the San Diego Chargers, who scored 110 points against the Kansas City Chiefs in a last gasp effort to make the fantasy playoffs.
Low score falls to the New York Jets at 30 points. Already long gone from the fantasy playoff picture, the Jets certainly played like their season was over.
Closest Game of the Week: Green Bay Packers 77, Minnesota Vikings 76. A tie game in real-life produces the closest game of the week in the fantasy world. How huge was this win for the Packers? By winning, they clinched the NFC North title and the NFC's #3 overall seed in the fantasy playoffs. If they had lost, they would have missed the playoffs completely, the Detroit Lions would have won the division and the Carolina Panthers would have slid into an NFC Wild Card spot.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Josh Gordan, 29 points. Despite Gordan's career game, the Browns just couldn't get much fantasy or real-life traction against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The following teams have clinched Creative Misfortune playoff spots (weeks 13-16):
AFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. Denver Broncos (8-3, 1178 pts)
2. New England Patriots (8-3, 884 pts)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3, 850 pts)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-5, 802 pts)
Wild Cards ~
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, 825 pts)
6. Miami Dolphins (6-5, 734 pts)
NFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. New Orleans Saints (9-2, 958 pts)
2. Seattle Seahawks (9-2, 883 pts)
3. Green Bay Packers (7-4, 904 pts)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-5, 877 points)
Wild Cards ~
5. Detroit Lions (7-4, 899 pts)
6. Chicago Bears (7-4, 874 pts)
Creative Misfortune Playoff Schedule:
Week 13 - Wild Card Games; Top Seeded teams play for "bye-week" advantage*
Week 14 - Divisional Games
Week 15 - Championship Games
Week 16 - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl III
Wild Card Game Matchups - Week 13
AFC #6 Miami Dolphins (playing at New York Jets) at
AFC #3 Cincinnati Bengals (playing at San Diego)
AFC #5 Kansas City Chiefs (playing vs Denver) at
AFC #4 Indianapolis Colts (playing vs Tennessee)
NFC #6 Chicago Bears (playing at Minnesota) at
NFC #3 Green Bay Packers (playing at Detroit)
NFC #5 Detroit Lions (playing vs Green Bay) at
NFC #4 Philadelphia Eagles (playing vs Arizona)
Top Seeds Playing for Bye-Week Advantage*
AFC #1 - Denver Broncos (playing at Kansas City)
AFC #2 - New England Patriots (playing at Houston)
NFC #1 - New Orleans Saints (playing at Seattle)
NFC #2 - Seattle Seahawks (playing vs New Orleans)
*Bye-week Advantage - To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, if the Denver Broncos scored 80 fantasy points in Week 13 against Kansas City, they would receive 20 bonus points (80/4) for their Divisional matchup. Conversely, if they had an off week and scored 42 fantasy points, they would only receive 10 bonus points (42/4, any fractional points rounded down).
Since there are no bye weeks between the Divisional games and the Championship games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
Week 12 Game Results:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 75, Atlanta Falcons 53
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (19), Jimmy Graham (16), Pierre Thomas (12)
Atlanta's Key Performers: Steven Jackson (13), Matt Ryan (12), Harry Douglas (7)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 88, Cleveland Browns 43
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Defense (23), Ben Roethlisberger (16), Antonio Brown (15)
Cleveland's Key Performers: Josh Gordan (29), Davonne Bess (4), Billy Cundiff (3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Fantasy Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 79, Detroit Lions 66
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Tiquan Underwood (22), Defense (20), Mike Glennon (17)
Detroit's Key Performers: Matthew Stafford (15), Nate Burleson (13), Calvin Johnson (11)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 77, Minnesota Vikings 76
Minnesota's Key Performers: Adrian Peterson (18), Blair Walsh (15), Christian Ponder (13)
Green Bay's Key Performers: Eddie Lacy (21), Jarrett Boykin (12), Scott Tolzien (11)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Fantasy Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 65, Houston Texans 38
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Maurice Jones-Drew (20), Defense (11), Chad Henne (9)
Houston's Key Performers: Defense (10), Dennis Johnson (8), Randy Bullock (7)
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 110, Kansas City Chiefs 89
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (27), Danny Woodhead (18), Ladarius Green (14)
Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (27), Alex Smith (21), Donnie Avery (15)
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 65, Carolina Panthers 61
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (19), Graham Gano (10), Greg Olsen (9)
Miami's Key Performers: Mike Wallace (18), Ryan Tannehill (17), Caleb Sturgis (10)
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams
Fantasy Score: St. Louis Rams 98, Chicago Bears 70
Chicago's Key Performers: Josh McCown (18), Brandon Marshall (17), Martellus Bennett (12)
St. Louis' Key Performers: Benny Cunningham (16), Tavon Austin (15), Zac Stacy (15)
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Score: Baltimore Ravens 77, New York Jets 30
New York's Key Performers: Bilal Powell (6), Defense (6), Greg Salas (4)
Baltimore's Key Performers: Jacoby Jones (16), Defense (16), Justin Tucker (15)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 107, Indianapolis Colts 40
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (13), Coby Fleener (11), Darrius Heyward-Bey (4)
Arizona's Key Performers: Carson Palmer (20), Jay Feely (18), Larry Fitzgerald (17)
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 85, Oakland Raiders 63
Tennessee's Key Performers: Ryan Fitzpatrick (22), Kendall Wright (16), Justin Hunter (16)
Oakland's Key Performers: Sebastian Janikowski (15), Matt McGloin (12), Marcel Reece (11)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 72, New York Giants 71
Dallas' Key Performers: Jason Witten (15), Tony Romo (15), DeMarco Murray (12)
New York's Key Performers: Andre Brown (15), Eli Manning (14), Brandon Myers (9)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 104, Denver Broncos 82
Denver's Key Performers: Knowshon Moreno (28), Peyton Manning (12), Defense (11)
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (23), Julian Edelman (23), Rob Gronkowski (15)
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 86, Washington Redskins 31
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (23), Anquan Boldin (21), Defense (13)
Washington's Key Performers: Kai Forbath (6), Robert Griffin III (5), Alfred Morris (5)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
In week 12, the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers managed to win a fantasy game they lost or tied in real life. Both teams punched their tickets to the post-season with their wins.
High score of the week goes to the San Diego Chargers, who scored 110 points against the Kansas City Chiefs in a last gasp effort to make the fantasy playoffs.
Low score falls to the New York Jets at 30 points. Already long gone from the fantasy playoff picture, the Jets certainly played like their season was over.
Closest Game of the Week: Green Bay Packers 77, Minnesota Vikings 76. A tie game in real-life produces the closest game of the week in the fantasy world. How huge was this win for the Packers? By winning, they clinched the NFC North title and the NFC's #3 overall seed in the fantasy playoffs. If they had lost, they would have missed the playoffs completely, the Detroit Lions would have won the division and the Carolina Panthers would have slid into an NFC Wild Card spot.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Josh Gordan, 29 points. Despite Gordan's career game, the Browns just couldn't get much fantasy or real-life traction against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The following teams have clinched Creative Misfortune playoff spots (weeks 13-16):
AFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. Denver Broncos (8-3, 1178 pts)
2. New England Patriots (8-3, 884 pts)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3, 850 pts)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-5, 802 pts)
Wild Cards ~
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, 825 pts)
6. Miami Dolphins (6-5, 734 pts)
NFC Seeds
Division Champions ~
1. New Orleans Saints (9-2, 958 pts)
2. Seattle Seahawks (9-2, 883 pts)
3. Green Bay Packers (7-4, 904 pts)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-5, 877 points)
Wild Cards ~
5. Detroit Lions (7-4, 899 pts)
6. Chicago Bears (7-4, 874 pts)
Creative Misfortune Playoff Schedule:
Week 13 - Wild Card Games; Top Seeded teams play for "bye-week" advantage*
Week 14 - Divisional Games
Week 15 - Championship Games
Week 16 - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl III
Wild Card Game Matchups - Week 13
AFC #6 Miami Dolphins (playing at New York Jets) at
AFC #3 Cincinnati Bengals (playing at San Diego)
AFC #5 Kansas City Chiefs (playing vs Denver) at
AFC #4 Indianapolis Colts (playing vs Tennessee)
NFC #6 Chicago Bears (playing at Minnesota) at
NFC #3 Green Bay Packers (playing at Detroit)
NFC #5 Detroit Lions (playing vs Green Bay) at
NFC #4 Philadelphia Eagles (playing vs Arizona)
Top Seeds Playing for Bye-Week Advantage*
AFC #1 - Denver Broncos (playing at Kansas City)
AFC #2 - New England Patriots (playing at Houston)
NFC #1 - New Orleans Saints (playing at Seattle)
NFC #2 - Seattle Seahawks (playing vs New Orleans)
*Bye-week Advantage - To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.
For example, if the Denver Broncos scored 80 fantasy points in Week 13 against Kansas City, they would receive 20 bonus points (80/4) for their Divisional matchup. Conversely, if they had an off week and scored 42 fantasy points, they would only receive 10 bonus points (42/4, any fractional points rounded down).
Since there are no bye weeks between the Divisional games and the Championship games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.
Week 12 Game Results:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 75, Atlanta Falcons 53
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (19), Jimmy Graham (16), Pierre Thomas (12)
Atlanta's Key Performers: Steven Jackson (13), Matt Ryan (12), Harry Douglas (7)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 88, Cleveland Browns 43
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Defense (23), Ben Roethlisberger (16), Antonio Brown (15)
Cleveland's Key Performers: Josh Gordan (29), Davonne Bess (4), Billy Cundiff (3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Fantasy Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 79, Detroit Lions 66
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Tiquan Underwood (22), Defense (20), Mike Glennon (17)
Detroit's Key Performers: Matthew Stafford (15), Nate Burleson (13), Calvin Johnson (11)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 77, Minnesota Vikings 76
Minnesota's Key Performers: Adrian Peterson (18), Blair Walsh (15), Christian Ponder (13)
Green Bay's Key Performers: Eddie Lacy (21), Jarrett Boykin (12), Scott Tolzien (11)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Fantasy Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 65, Houston Texans 38
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Maurice Jones-Drew (20), Defense (11), Chad Henne (9)
Houston's Key Performers: Defense (10), Dennis Johnson (8), Randy Bullock (7)
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 110, Kansas City Chiefs 89
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (27), Danny Woodhead (18), Ladarius Green (14)
Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (27), Alex Smith (21), Donnie Avery (15)
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 65, Carolina Panthers 61
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (19), Graham Gano (10), Greg Olsen (9)
Miami's Key Performers: Mike Wallace (18), Ryan Tannehill (17), Caleb Sturgis (10)
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams
Fantasy Score: St. Louis Rams 98, Chicago Bears 70
Chicago's Key Performers: Josh McCown (18), Brandon Marshall (17), Martellus Bennett (12)
St. Louis' Key Performers: Benny Cunningham (16), Tavon Austin (15), Zac Stacy (15)
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Score: Baltimore Ravens 77, New York Jets 30
New York's Key Performers: Bilal Powell (6), Defense (6), Greg Salas (4)
Baltimore's Key Performers: Jacoby Jones (16), Defense (16), Justin Tucker (15)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 107, Indianapolis Colts 40
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Andrew Luck (13), Coby Fleener (11), Darrius Heyward-Bey (4)
Arizona's Key Performers: Carson Palmer (20), Jay Feely (18), Larry Fitzgerald (17)
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 85, Oakland Raiders 63
Tennessee's Key Performers: Ryan Fitzpatrick (22), Kendall Wright (16), Justin Hunter (16)
Oakland's Key Performers: Sebastian Janikowski (15), Matt McGloin (12), Marcel Reece (11)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 72, New York Giants 71
Dallas' Key Performers: Jason Witten (15), Tony Romo (15), DeMarco Murray (12)
New York's Key Performers: Andre Brown (15), Eli Manning (14), Brandon Myers (9)
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 104, Denver Broncos 82
Denver's Key Performers: Knowshon Moreno (28), Peyton Manning (12), Defense (11)
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (23), Julian Edelman (23), Rob Gronkowski (15)
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 86, Washington Redskins 31
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (23), Anquan Boldin (21), Defense (13)
Washington's Key Performers: Kai Forbath (6), Robert Griffin III (5), Alfred Morris (5)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
Monday, November 25, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 12 (2013)
With one game remaining in week 12, the twelfth week of predictions ended up being one of the wildest (and most unproductive) prediction weeks in a long, long time. All systems performed poorly as numerous road teams won, a large number of teams upset their opponents with a better record and the Vikings and Packers battled to a rare tie... what a week! This is why the NFL is such a popular sport. You just never know what is going to happen.
Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Vegas Lines system won the week (if you could call it winning) by picking just 6 out of 13 games correctly over the weekend for a terrible 46.2% accuracy.
Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula came in a close, yet still terrible, third place by picking 5 out of 13 games correctly for a low 38.5% accuracy.
The blind pick systems both struggled mightily this week. With all the road victories, the Home Team Wins formula only managed to pick 4 of the 13 games accurately, for 30.8% accuracy. Coming in last, because of all the upsets, the blind Best Record Wins formula only picked 3 of the 13 games correctly for a season-low 23.1% accuracy. Only the Saints, Panthers and Cowboys won games this week against "inferior" opponents, and all three of those teams needed last-second stops or scores in order to secure their victories.
Almost all systems have the San Francisco 49ers knocking off the Washington Redskins in tonight's game, but after the way this week's games have gone, expect the Redskins to emerge victorious!
Monday Night Game Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6. 49ers by 6, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. The fantasy regular season has ended. NFC and AFC playoff seedings will be broken down as the best 12 fantasy teams start their second season...
Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Vegas Lines system won the week (if you could call it winning) by picking just 6 out of 13 games correctly over the weekend for a terrible 46.2% accuracy.
Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula came in a close, yet still terrible, third place by picking 5 out of 13 games correctly for a low 38.5% accuracy.
The blind pick systems both struggled mightily this week. With all the road victories, the Home Team Wins formula only managed to pick 4 of the 13 games accurately, for 30.8% accuracy. Coming in last, because of all the upsets, the blind Best Record Wins formula only picked 3 of the 13 games correctly for a season-low 23.1% accuracy. Only the Saints, Panthers and Cowboys won games this week against "inferior" opponents, and all three of those teams needed last-second stops or scores in order to secure their victories.
Almost all systems have the San Francisco 49ers knocking off the Washington Redskins in tonight's game, but after the way this week's games have gone, expect the Redskins to emerge victorious!
Monday Night Game Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6. 49ers by 6, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3
Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. The fantasy regular season has ended. NFC and AFC playoff seedings will be broken down as the best 12 fantasy teams start their second season...
Friday, November 22, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 12 (2013)
With a large number of playoff spots open in Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." game, which teams will punch their ticket to the post-season during the fantasy season's final regular season matchups?
Sunday Game Predictions:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1. Browns by 1, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Both teams at 4-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 10. Lions by 9.5, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Packers by 4.5, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 10. Texans by 10, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans better at 2-8
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 5. Chiefs by 4.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 9-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 5. Panthers by 4.5, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 7-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 1. Rams by 1, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 12
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 4. Ravens by 3.5, Over/Under 39
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals by 2.5, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 7-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee Titans by 1. Titans by 1, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3. Both teams at 4-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 3. Giants by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 2.5, Over/Under 54
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 9-1
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Sunday Game Predictions:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1. Browns by 1, Over/Under 40
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Both teams at 4-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 10. Lions by 9.5, Over/Under 48
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Packers by 4.5, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 10. Texans by 10, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Texans better at 2-8
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 10
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 5. Chiefs by 4.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 9-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 12
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 5. Panthers by 4.5, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 7-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 1. Rams by 1, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 12
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 4. Ravens by 3.5, Over/Under 39
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals by 2.5, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 7-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 5
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tennessee Titans by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee Titans by 1. Titans by 1, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3. Both teams at 4-6, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 3. Giants by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 2.5, Over/Under 54
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 9-1
Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 12 (2013)
This game must have looked so good to the schedule makers before the season started. Now, eh... not so much.
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 18
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 9. Saints by 9, Over/Under 53
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 8-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 12 matchups...
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 18
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 9. Saints by 9, Over/Under 53
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 8-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 12 matchups...
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 11 (2013)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
I guess a winning streak was too much to ask for.
# 31 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 30)
The Falcons look nothing like the team that went deep into the playoffs last season. I have no idea what is going on with them and I doubt they have any idea either.
# 30 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 28)
Until the Vikings can figure out their quarterback situation, they will continue to fail.
# 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 31)
Now that's what I call a winning streak! Are you paying attention, Jacksonville?
# 28 - Houston Texans (previous: 29)
Case Keenum was benched in favor of Matt Schaub… is there a quarterback controversy in Houston? Hard to care when the team is playing so poorly.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Washington Redskins (previous: 25)
The Redskins let an excellent chance to get back in the NFC East race get away from them.
# 26 - New York Giants (previous: 24)
The Giants are setting themselves up to be more than spoilers in the closing weeks of the season.
# 25 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 26)
Oakland lit up the Texans, but it may be too little, too late with them being so far behind the other AFC West powers.
# 24 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 23)
The Steelers are suddenly right back in the mix of the AFC Wild Card chase.
# 23 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 19)
Cleveland stumbled in Cincinnati, but their season is far from over.
# 22 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 27)
Where have these Bills been? If they played like that earlier in the year, they certainly could have shocked some people.
# 21 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 20)
The Rams have no shot at the division title, but some slim hopes still remain for a Wild Card spot if they keep playing like they played in Indianapolis.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 17)
A tough loss in Chicago certainly puts a damper on Baltimore's bid to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
# 19 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 18)
The Chargers looked like they had a shot at a Wild Card a few weeks ago, but a few losses have taken the wind out of their sails.
# 18 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 21)
If Chris Johnson could show just a bit more consistency, the Titans wouldn't be such a question mark of a team.
# 17 - New York Jets (previous: 16)
The Jets looked so good before their bye week. It's like the break turned them into a horrible team overnight.
# 16 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 22)
Despite their off-field issues, the Dolphins managed to win a much-needed game.
# 15 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 15)
The Packers are proving just how valuable Aaron Rodgers is to their team.
# 14 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 12)
After an up and down season, the Cowboys need to win consistently if they hope to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles.
# 13 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 14)
Could the Cardinals be for real? A few more wins and they could very well be in the playoffs.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 13)
Foles finally has the Eagles on the right track.
# 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 11)
Defense keeps them winning, despite the injuries on offense.
# 10 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
The Lions had a great chance to move ahead in the division, but let it slip away despite another impressive performance by Megatron.
# 9 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 8)
The 49ers have fallen into a dogfight for an NFC Wild Card spot.
# 8 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 9)
Did the Colts learn anything during their bye week? If not, they better hope the rest of their division remains weak.
# 7 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 10)
Cincinnati has complete control of the AFC North. Now they are playing for a bye-week advantage in the playoffs.
# 6 - New England Patriots (previous: 5)
Tough break to end the game against Carolina, but they should never have been in that situation to begin with.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 6)
Cam Newton is a beast and quickly emerging as the best of the mobile quarterbacks. Don't underestimate Carolina's stout defense.
# 4 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
New Orleans almost has to win in Seattle when they face off in a few weeks if they hope to have any chance of claiming home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
# 3 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 1)
The loss in Denver doesn't mean anything if the Chiefs can defeat the Broncos in Kansas City.
# 2 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
A big win by the Broncos over the Chiefs, but their remaining schedule is far from easy.
# 1 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
The first team to 10 wins, the Seahawks can relax during their bye week. A couple wins and they clinch the division. Another one or two and they clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's nice in Seattle these days!
Week 11 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Cleveland Browns (-4), Detroit Lions (-3), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Kansas City Chiefs (-2), Dallas Cowboys (-2)
The Biggest Movers - Miami Dolphins (+6), Buffalo Bills (+5), Cincinnati Bengals (+3), Tennessee Titans (+3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2)
Maintaining The Status Quo - New Orleans Saints (4), Chicago Bears (11), Green Bay Packers (15), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 11
Denver Broncos
Check back later tonight for Thursday Night game predictions.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
I guess a winning streak was too much to ask for.
# 31 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 30)
The Falcons look nothing like the team that went deep into the playoffs last season. I have no idea what is going on with them and I doubt they have any idea either.
# 30 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 28)
Until the Vikings can figure out their quarterback situation, they will continue to fail.
# 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 31)
Now that's what I call a winning streak! Are you paying attention, Jacksonville?
# 28 - Houston Texans (previous: 29)
Case Keenum was benched in favor of Matt Schaub… is there a quarterback controversy in Houston? Hard to care when the team is playing so poorly.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Washington Redskins (previous: 25)
The Redskins let an excellent chance to get back in the NFC East race get away from them.
# 26 - New York Giants (previous: 24)
The Giants are setting themselves up to be more than spoilers in the closing weeks of the season.
# 25 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 26)
Oakland lit up the Texans, but it may be too little, too late with them being so far behind the other AFC West powers.
# 24 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 23)
The Steelers are suddenly right back in the mix of the AFC Wild Card chase.
# 23 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 19)
Cleveland stumbled in Cincinnati, but their season is far from over.
# 22 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 27)
Where have these Bills been? If they played like that earlier in the year, they certainly could have shocked some people.
# 21 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 20)
The Rams have no shot at the division title, but some slim hopes still remain for a Wild Card spot if they keep playing like they played in Indianapolis.
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 17)
A tough loss in Chicago certainly puts a damper on Baltimore's bid to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
# 19 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 18)
The Chargers looked like they had a shot at a Wild Card a few weeks ago, but a few losses have taken the wind out of their sails.
# 18 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 21)
If Chris Johnson could show just a bit more consistency, the Titans wouldn't be such a question mark of a team.
# 17 - New York Jets (previous: 16)
The Jets looked so good before their bye week. It's like the break turned them into a horrible team overnight.
# 16 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 22)
Despite their off-field issues, the Dolphins managed to win a much-needed game.
# 15 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 15)
The Packers are proving just how valuable Aaron Rodgers is to their team.
# 14 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 12)
After an up and down season, the Cowboys need to win consistently if they hope to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles.
# 13 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 14)
Could the Cardinals be for real? A few more wins and they could very well be in the playoffs.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 13)
Foles finally has the Eagles on the right track.
# 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 11)
Defense keeps them winning, despite the injuries on offense.
# 10 - Detroit Lions (previous: 7)
The Lions had a great chance to move ahead in the division, but let it slip away despite another impressive performance by Megatron.
# 9 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 8)
The 49ers have fallen into a dogfight for an NFC Wild Card spot.
# 8 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 9)
Did the Colts learn anything during their bye week? If not, they better hope the rest of their division remains weak.
# 7 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 10)
Cincinnati has complete control of the AFC North. Now they are playing for a bye-week advantage in the playoffs.
# 6 - New England Patriots (previous: 5)
Tough break to end the game against Carolina, but they should never have been in that situation to begin with.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 6)
Cam Newton is a beast and quickly emerging as the best of the mobile quarterbacks. Don't underestimate Carolina's stout defense.
# 4 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
New Orleans almost has to win in Seattle when they face off in a few weeks if they hope to have any chance of claiming home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
# 3 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 1)
The loss in Denver doesn't mean anything if the Chiefs can defeat the Broncos in Kansas City.
# 2 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
A big win by the Broncos over the Chiefs, but their remaining schedule is far from easy.
# 1 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
The first team to 10 wins, the Seahawks can relax during their bye week. A couple wins and they clinch the division. Another one or two and they clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's nice in Seattle these days!
Week 11 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Cleveland Browns (-4), Detroit Lions (-3), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Kansas City Chiefs (-2), Dallas Cowboys (-2)
The Biggest Movers - Miami Dolphins (+6), Buffalo Bills (+5), Cincinnati Bengals (+3), Tennessee Titans (+3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2)
Maintaining The Status Quo - New Orleans Saints (4), Chicago Bears (11), Green Bay Packers (15), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 11
Denver Broncos
Check back later tonight for Thursday Night game predictions.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Week 11 Results (2013) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."
It was a very normal week in the fantasy world, but with the playoffs just one week away, some teams stepped forward to claim their spot in the postseason, while others sunk into the depths of mediocrity that is the AFC wild card chase. After the week 11 games, seven AFC teams have the chance to make the playoffs as a 5-6 wild card. On the NFC side of the house, it will take at least 7 wins to snag a wild card spot and 8 wins will probably be needed.
In week 11, no teams managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored 110 points against the Detroit Lions.
Low score falls to the New York Jets at 27 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 37 points the Buffalo Bills scored against them.
Closest Game of the Week: Miami Dolphins 71, San Diego Chargers 67. Despite their off-field drama, the Miami Dolphins managed to win both on the real field and the fantasy field and now control their own destiny as they try to secure the AFC's 6th seed. The San Diego chargers are still very much alive for the AFC's second Wild Card spot as well, but they will need to win and get help in order to make it to the fantasy postseason.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Bobby Rainey, 34 points. Who? Exactly! Did you start him? Of course not, why would I have?
PLAYOFF PICTURE
With just one week remaining in the Creative Misfortune fantasy regular season, the following teams have clinched a fantasy playoff spot (weeks 13-16):
NFC
Seattle Seahawks (clinched NFC West title and a first round bye in the playoffs)
New Orleans Saints (clinched a wild-card spot)
AFC
Denver Broncos (clinched AFC West title and Home Field Advantage throughout the AFC playoffs)
Cincinnati Bengals (clinched AFC North title; Can be seeded no lower than 3rd)
New England Patriots (clinched AFC East title; Can be seeded no lower than 4th)
Kansas City Chiefs (clinched a wild-card spot and will be seeded 5th in the AFC playoffs)
The following teams have been eliminated from post-season play (weeks 13-16):
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings
St. Louis Rams
Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders
New York Jets
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
Week 11 Game Results:
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 77, Tennessee Titans 67
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Donald Brown (21), Andrew Luck (18), Adam Vinatieri (15)
Tennessee's Key Performers: Chris Johnson (20), Delanie Walker (15), Ryan Fitzpatrick (14)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 95, New York Jets 27
New York's Key Performers: Chris Ivory (15), Jeff Cumberland (8), Santonio Holmes (7)
Buffalo's Key Performers: Defense (19), EJ Manuel (17), Dan Carpenter (16)
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Fantasy Score: Chicago Bears 72, Baltimore Ravens 56
Baltimore's Key Performers: Ray Rice (20), Justin Tucker (10), Torrey Smith (9)
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (18), Defense (13), Josh McCown (12)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 79, Cleveland Browns 51
Cleveland's Key Performers: Josh Gordan (18), Billy Cundiff (8), Jason Campbell (7)
Cincinnati's Key Performers: Defense (26), Mike Nugent (12), Andy Dalton (11)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Fantasy Score: Oakland Raiders 84, Houston Texans 72
Oakland's Key Performers: Rashad Jennings (21), Matthew McGloin (19), Rod Streater (14)
Houston's Key Performers: Garrett Graham (17), Randy Bullock (13), Andre Johnson (11)
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 94, Jacksonville Jaguars 44
Arizona's Key Performers: Michael Floyd (25), Carson Palmer (24), Larry Fitzgerald (12)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Danny Noble (12), Chad Henne (10), Maurice Jones-Drew (9)
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 71, San Diego Chargers 67
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (13), Ryan Mathews (13), Nick Novak (12)
Miami's Key Performers: Charles Clay (15), Ryan Tennehill (14), Daniel Thomas (11)
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 79, Washington Redskins 68
Washington's Key Performers: Robert Griffin III (22), Darrel Young (12), Aldrick Robinson (12)
Philadelphia's Key Performers: LeSean McCoy (26), Nick Foles (21), Defense (9)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 110, Detroit Lions 79
Detroit's Key Performers: Calvin Johnson (29), Matthew Stafford (22), Joique Bell (14)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (31), Antonio Brown (26), Shaun Suisham (13)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 103, Atlanta Falcons 74
Atlanta's Key Performers: Harry Douglas (19), Matt Ryan (14), Antone Smith (14)
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Bobby Rainey (34), Vincent Jackson (22), Mike Glennon (17)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 88, Kansas City Chiefs 64
Kansas City's Key Performers: Alex Smith (22), Dwayne Bowe (11), Anthony Fasano (9)
Denver's Key Performers: Montee Ball (15), Peyton Manning (14), Demaryius Thomas (12)
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 66, San Francisco 49ers 51
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (13), Anquan Boldin (11), Phil Dawson (10)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (14), Garrett Hartley (12), Marques Colston (8)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 94, Minnesota Vikings 44
Minnesota's Key Performers: Jarius Wright (18), Blair Walsh (9), Adrian Peterson (6)
Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (23), Russell Wilson (18), Defense (16)
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 81, Green Bay Packers 61
Green Bay's Key Performers: Jordy Nelson (11), Eddie Lacy (10), Mason Crosby (9)
New York's Key Performers: Defense (16), Eli Manning (13), Victor Cruz (11)
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Score: Carolina Panthers 78, New England Patriots 58
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (13), Rob Gronkowski (11), Stephen Gostkowski (9)
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (26), Greg Olsen (11), Brandon LaFell (11)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
In week 11, no teams managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life.
High score of the week goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored 110 points against the Detroit Lions.
Low score falls to the New York Jets at 27 points, who were unable to score enough fantasy points to beat the real 37 points the Buffalo Bills scored against them.
Closest Game of the Week: Miami Dolphins 71, San Diego Chargers 67. Despite their off-field drama, the Miami Dolphins managed to win both on the real field and the fantasy field and now control their own destiny as they try to secure the AFC's 6th seed. The San Diego chargers are still very much alive for the AFC's second Wild Card spot as well, but they will need to win and get help in order to make it to the fantasy postseason.
Fantasy Star of the Week: Bobby Rainey, 34 points. Who? Exactly! Did you start him? Of course not, why would I have?
PLAYOFF PICTURE
With just one week remaining in the Creative Misfortune fantasy regular season, the following teams have clinched a fantasy playoff spot (weeks 13-16):
NFC
Seattle Seahawks (clinched NFC West title and a first round bye in the playoffs)
New Orleans Saints (clinched a wild-card spot)
AFC
Denver Broncos (clinched AFC West title and Home Field Advantage throughout the AFC playoffs)
Cincinnati Bengals (clinched AFC North title; Can be seeded no lower than 3rd)
New England Patriots (clinched AFC East title; Can be seeded no lower than 4th)
Kansas City Chiefs (clinched a wild-card spot and will be seeded 5th in the AFC playoffs)
The following teams have been eliminated from post-season play (weeks 13-16):
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings
St. Louis Rams
Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders
New York Jets
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
Week 11 Game Results:
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 77, Tennessee Titans 67
Indianapolis' Key Performers: Donald Brown (21), Andrew Luck (18), Adam Vinatieri (15)
Tennessee's Key Performers: Chris Johnson (20), Delanie Walker (15), Ryan Fitzpatrick (14)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 95, New York Jets 27
New York's Key Performers: Chris Ivory (15), Jeff Cumberland (8), Santonio Holmes (7)
Buffalo's Key Performers: Defense (19), EJ Manuel (17), Dan Carpenter (16)
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Fantasy Score: Chicago Bears 72, Baltimore Ravens 56
Baltimore's Key Performers: Ray Rice (20), Justin Tucker (10), Torrey Smith (9)
Chicago's Key Performers: Matt Forte (18), Defense (13), Josh McCown (12)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 79, Cleveland Browns 51
Cleveland's Key Performers: Josh Gordan (18), Billy Cundiff (8), Jason Campbell (7)
Cincinnati's Key Performers: Defense (26), Mike Nugent (12), Andy Dalton (11)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Fantasy Score: Oakland Raiders 84, Houston Texans 72
Oakland's Key Performers: Rashad Jennings (21), Matthew McGloin (19), Rod Streater (14)
Houston's Key Performers: Garrett Graham (17), Randy Bullock (13), Andre Johnson (11)
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 94, Jacksonville Jaguars 44
Arizona's Key Performers: Michael Floyd (25), Carson Palmer (24), Larry Fitzgerald (12)
Jacksonville's Key Performers: Danny Noble (12), Chad Henne (10), Maurice Jones-Drew (9)
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Score: Miami Dolphins 71, San Diego Chargers 67
San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (13), Ryan Mathews (13), Nick Novak (12)
Miami's Key Performers: Charles Clay (15), Ryan Tennehill (14), Daniel Thomas (11)
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 79, Washington Redskins 68
Washington's Key Performers: Robert Griffin III (22), Darrel Young (12), Aldrick Robinson (12)
Philadelphia's Key Performers: LeSean McCoy (26), Nick Foles (21), Defense (9)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 110, Detroit Lions 79
Detroit's Key Performers: Calvin Johnson (29), Matthew Stafford (22), Joique Bell (14)
Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (31), Antonio Brown (26), Shaun Suisham (13)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 103, Atlanta Falcons 74
Atlanta's Key Performers: Harry Douglas (19), Matt Ryan (14), Antone Smith (14)
Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Bobby Rainey (34), Vincent Jackson (22), Mike Glennon (17)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 88, Kansas City Chiefs 64
Kansas City's Key Performers: Alex Smith (22), Dwayne Bowe (11), Anthony Fasano (9)
Denver's Key Performers: Montee Ball (15), Peyton Manning (14), Demaryius Thomas (12)
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 66, San Francisco 49ers 51
San Francisco's Key Performers: Colin Kaepernick (13), Anquan Boldin (11), Phil Dawson (10)
New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (14), Garrett Hartley (12), Marques Colston (8)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 94, Minnesota Vikings 44
Minnesota's Key Performers: Jarius Wright (18), Blair Walsh (9), Adrian Peterson (6)
Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (23), Russell Wilson (18), Defense (16)
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Fantasy Score: New York Giants 81, Green Bay Packers 61
Green Bay's Key Performers: Jordy Nelson (11), Eddie Lacy (10), Mason Crosby (9)
New York's Key Performers: Defense (16), Eli Manning (13), Victor Cruz (11)
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Score: Carolina Panthers 78, New England Patriots 58
New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (13), Rob Gronkowski (11), Stephen Gostkowski (9)
Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (26), Greg Olsen (11), Brandon LaFell (11)
Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings
Monday, November 18, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 11 (2013)
With one game remaining in week 11, the eleventh week of predictions showed solid results for most systems.
Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula won the week again, picking 11 out of 14 games correctly over the weekend for an impressive 78.6% accuracy. The blind Home Team Wins formula also picked 11 out of 14 games correctly.
The Vegas Lines formula finished second, picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for a solid 71.4% accuracy.
All other systems (Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY and the blind Best Record Wins formulas) finished the week picking an above average 9 out of 14 games correctly for 64.3% accuracy.
Almost all systems have the Carolina Panthers upsetting the New England Patriots in tonight's game.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers by 2.5, Over/Under 46.5
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 7-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records and clinched a spot in the playoffs this week, despite losing in real life?
Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula won the week again, picking 11 out of 14 games correctly over the weekend for an impressive 78.6% accuracy. The blind Home Team Wins formula also picked 11 out of 14 games correctly.
The Vegas Lines formula finished second, picking 10 out of 14 games correctly for a solid 71.4% accuracy.
All other systems (Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY and the blind Best Record Wins formulas) finished the week picking an above average 9 out of 14 games correctly for 64.3% accuracy.
Almost all systems have the Carolina Panthers upsetting the New England Patriots in tonight's game.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 6
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers by 2.5, Over/Under 46.5
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 7-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
Week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records and clinched a spot in the playoffs this week, despite losing in real life?
Friday, November 15, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 11 (2013)
Nearly all systems started week 11 off with a win by backing the Indianapolis Colts last night. How will they fare with their remaining week 11 picks?
Sunday Game Predictions:
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1. Bills by 1, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears by 3, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 11
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 6. Bengals by 5.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 7. Texans by 7, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3. Raiders better at 3-6
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 18
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 7. Cardinals by 7, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1. Chargers by 1, Over/Under 45.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Both teams at 4-5, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4. Eagles by 3.5, Over/Under 53
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions by 2.5, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 2. Falcons by 1.5, Over/Under 43
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3. Falcons better at 2-7
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 47.5
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 7-2
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 17
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 12
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 12. Seahawks by 11.5, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 9-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 5. Giants by 5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 8. Broncos by 7.5, Over/Under 49
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 9-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Sunday Game Predictions:
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1. Bills by 1, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears by 3, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 11
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 6. Bengals by 5.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 6-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 7. Texans by 7, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3. Raiders better at 3-6
Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 18
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 10
Vegas Lines Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 7. Cardinals by 7, Over/Under 41
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 1. Chargers by 1, Over/Under 45.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Both teams at 4-5, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4. Eagles by 3.5, Over/Under 53
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 5-5
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions by 2.5, Over/Under 47
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 6-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 2. Falcons by 1.5, Over/Under 43
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3. Falcons better at 2-7
Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 47.5
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 7-2
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 17
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 12
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 12. Seahawks by 11.5, Over/Under 46
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 9-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 13
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 5. Giants by 5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Packers better at 5-4
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 8. Broncos by 7.5, Over/Under 49
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 9-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 11 (2013)
All systems look to rebound after the unexpected upsets last week. Will any system be able to hit that 70% accuracy with the NFL's Week 11 slate of games?
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 42.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 6-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 11 matchups...
Thursday Night Game Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 6
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 42.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 6-3
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3
Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 11 matchups...
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 10 (2013)
Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
The Jaguars WON!!!
# 31 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 31)
The Buccaneers WON!!!
# 30 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 26)
Atlanta continues their freefall from near NFL glory to the cellar.
# 29 - Houston Texans (previous: 27)
Statiscally, the Texans aren't nearly as bad as their 2-7 record indicates. Losing Foster for the season, however, could change all of that.
# 28 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 30)
A great win at home, Minnesota still has to figure out who will be their starting quarterback in 2014. I don't think the right man for the job is currently on the roster today.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 22)
The Bills almost seemed like they were going somewhere a few weeks ago, but instead they are going nowhere, just like every other season the last ten years.
# 26 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 25)
The potential is there, but youthful mistakes and injuries keep slowing the Raiders down.
# 25 - Washington Redskins (previous: 23)
With the NFC East up for grabs, the Redskins can't afford to blow two-touchdown leads against inferior opponents.
# 24 - New York Giants (previous: 29)
The Giants, despite their terrible start, are still viable contenders in the weak NFC East.
# 23 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 28)
Pittsburgh rebounds with a win after one of their worst defensive performances in franchise history.
# 22 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 18)
The off-field issues have impacted Miami's on-field ability to win games.
# 21 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 15)
How on earth can the Titans lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars?
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 24)
Holy cow, St. Louis! Where the heck did that game come from?
# 19 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 19)
The Browns sat idle last week, and readied themselves for an unlikely run towards a wild card spot.
# 18 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 16)
Overwhelmed by the Broncos at home, San Diego has little chance to steal the division title, but still is very viable for a wild card spot.
# 17 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 21)
The Ravens of old never would have let that game get into overtime. KNOCK THE BALL DOWN!
# 16 - New York Jets (previous: 14)
A winning record coming out of the bye week? Few predicted that for the Jets.
# 15 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 13)
Injuries have ruined Green Bay's season. Will Aaron Rodgers return before the damage is too much for the Packers to overcome?
# 14 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 17)
A surging team in the NFC, they have a nice shot at stealing a wild card spot.
# 13 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 20)
Nick Foles has righted the ship in Philadelphia and now they may just be the team to beat in the weak NFC East.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 11)
If Coach Garrett and his staff cannot get this talented, underachieving football team to win the division title this year, of all years, then he should be fired.
# 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 12)
Like the Packers, injuries have slowed the Bears.
# 10 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 8)
Still in control of the division, the Bengals can't let games against their division rivals slip away.
# 9 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
Ye gods, Indianapolis! What the heck happened?
# 8 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 6)
Just when you think everything is starting to go San Francisco's way, the 49ers get schooled at home after a bye week.
# 7 - Detroit Lions (previous: 10)
The Lions are suddenly the team to beat in the NFC North and are far healthier than their division foes.
# 6 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 9)
Could the Panthers have the best defense in the NFL? Probably not, but they will need them to be as strong as possible if they hope to compete with the high-powered offenses sure to be in the NFC playoffs.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
The Patriots gained ground in the division during their bye week, but lost ground in the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
# 4 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 7)
The scariest part about the Saints win over Dallas on Sunday night was not that Drew Brees threw for nearly 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was that Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles combined for 244 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
# 3 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
The Broncos can reclaim their spot as the top-ranked team in the AFC with a win over the Chiefs next Sunday night.
# 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
The class of the NFC, Seattle now has a two-game lead in the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
# 1 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 1)
It doesn't matter how good the defense has played up to this point, or how solid and mistake-free the offense has played, if the Chiefs get blown out in Denver this weekend, everybody will call them "pretenders" and write them off as one of the rare 9-0 flukes in NFL history.
Week 10 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Tennessee Titans (-6), Buffalo Bills (-5), Indianapolis Colts (-4), Miami Dolphins (-4), Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Biggest Movers - Philadelphia Eagles (+7), Pittsburgh Steelers (+5), New York Giants (+5), Baltimore Ravens (+4), St. Louis Rams (+4)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Kansas City Chiefs (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), Denver Broncos (3), Cleveland Browns (19), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 10
Denver Broncos
Check back later tonight for Thursday Night game predictions.
When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.
The Forked Few~
Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here
# 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
The Jaguars WON!!!
# 31 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 31)
The Buccaneers WON!!!
# 30 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 26)
Atlanta continues their freefall from near NFL glory to the cellar.
# 29 - Houston Texans (previous: 27)
Statiscally, the Texans aren't nearly as bad as their 2-7 record indicates. Losing Foster for the season, however, could change all of that.
# 28 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 30)
A great win at home, Minnesota still has to figure out who will be their starting quarterback in 2014. I don't think the right man for the job is currently on the roster today.
The Creatively Challenged~
Folly remains ever their mistress
# 27 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 22)
The Bills almost seemed like they were going somewhere a few weeks ago, but instead they are going nowhere, just like every other season the last ten years.
# 26 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 25)
The potential is there, but youthful mistakes and injuries keep slowing the Raiders down.
# 25 - Washington Redskins (previous: 23)
With the NFC East up for grabs, the Redskins can't afford to blow two-touchdown leads against inferior opponents.
# 24 - New York Giants (previous: 29)
The Giants, despite their terrible start, are still viable contenders in the weak NFC East.
# 23 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 28)
Pittsburgh rebounds with a win after one of their worst defensive performances in franchise history.
# 22 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 18)
The off-field issues have impacted Miami's on-field ability to win games.
# 21 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 15)
How on earth can the Titans lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars?
The Remarkably Average~
Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
# 20 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 24)
Holy cow, St. Louis! Where the heck did that game come from?
# 19 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 19)
The Browns sat idle last week, and readied themselves for an unlikely run towards a wild card spot.
# 18 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 16)
Overwhelmed by the Broncos at home, San Diego has little chance to steal the division title, but still is very viable for a wild card spot.
# 17 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 21)
The Ravens of old never would have let that game get into overtime. KNOCK THE BALL DOWN!
# 16 - New York Jets (previous: 14)
A winning record coming out of the bye week? Few predicted that for the Jets.
# 15 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 13)
Injuries have ruined Green Bay's season. Will Aaron Rodgers return before the damage is too much for the Packers to overcome?
# 14 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 17)
A surging team in the NFC, they have a nice shot at stealing a wild card spot.
# 13 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 20)
Nick Foles has righted the ship in Philadelphia and now they may just be the team to beat in the weak NFC East.
The Fortunate Seven~
The best of those not yet elite
# 12 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 11)
If Coach Garrett and his staff cannot get this talented, underachieving football team to win the division title this year, of all years, then he should be fired.
# 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 12)
Like the Packers, injuries have slowed the Bears.
# 10 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 8)
Still in control of the division, the Bengals can't let games against their division rivals slip away.
# 9 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 5)
Ye gods, Indianapolis! What the heck happened?
# 8 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 6)
Just when you think everything is starting to go San Francisco's way, the 49ers get schooled at home after a bye week.
# 7 - Detroit Lions (previous: 10)
The Lions are suddenly the team to beat in the NFC North and are far healthier than their division foes.
# 6 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 9)
Could the Panthers have the best defense in the NFL? Probably not, but they will need them to be as strong as possible if they hope to compete with the high-powered offenses sure to be in the NFC playoffs.
The Creative Elite~
Wielding misfortune at its finest
# 5 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
The Patriots gained ground in the division during their bye week, but lost ground in the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
# 4 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 7)
The scariest part about the Saints win over Dallas on Sunday night was not that Drew Brees threw for nearly 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was that Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles combined for 244 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
# 3 - Denver Broncos (previous: 3)
The Broncos can reclaim their spot as the top-ranked team in the AFC with a win over the Chiefs next Sunday night.
# 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
The class of the NFC, Seattle now has a two-game lead in the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
# 1 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 1)
It doesn't matter how good the defense has played up to this point, or how solid and mistake-free the offense has played, if the Chiefs get blown out in Denver this weekend, everybody will call them "pretenders" and write them off as one of the rare 9-0 flukes in NFL history.
Week 10 Power Ranking Awards:
The Free Fallers - Tennessee Titans (-6), Buffalo Bills (-5), Indianapolis Colts (-4), Miami Dolphins (-4), Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Biggest Movers - Philadelphia Eagles (+7), Pittsburgh Steelers (+5), New York Giants (+5), Baltimore Ravens (+4), St. Louis Rams (+4)
Maintaining The Status Quo - Kansas City Chiefs (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), Denver Broncos (3), Cleveland Browns (19), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)
Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 10
Denver Broncos
Check back later tonight for Thursday Night game predictions.
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