Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Wild Card Weekend (2014)

The NFL playoffs are finally here. Let's get wild, everybody!

Wild Card Game Predictions:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 7. Panthers by 6.5, Over/Under 37.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Arizona Cardinals projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.508 - 0.442
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers by 3, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.672 - 0.599
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 4. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.625 - 0.535
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 11-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7. Cowboys by 6.5, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.662 - 0.576
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Fantasy projections not available in the playoffs; If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring season totals used
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 12-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3


Check back next Thursday for Creative Misfortune's post-Wild Card round power rankings.

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 16 (2014)

First round byes and division titles are on the line as Denver takes on Cincinnati. Almost all systems favor the Broncos to win, but who knows what Cincinnati team will show up tonight.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos by 3, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Denver Broncos by 5. Denver Broncos projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.668 - 0.543
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Denver Broncos by 6. Denver Broncos projected to win by a fantasy score of 85-69
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 11-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3


"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Fantasy Bowl IV results will be posted on New Year's Eve, because I will be traveling, but results will be based on the games played in Week 16. Happy Holidays, Everybody!

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 10 (2014)

Bragging rights in the AFC North and the state of Ohio are on the line tonight! Who will emerge victorious? Most systems believe the Bengals will win, but two systems project victory for the upstart Browns. Here's hoping for a great, divisional game!


Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 7. Bengals by 6.5, Over/Under 45
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1. Cleveland Browns projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.553 - 0.522
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 1. Cincinnati Bengals projected to win by a fantasy score of 72-71
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 5-2-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3


Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 10 slate...

Season Recap - 2013 Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals



Final Record: 11-5 (0-1)
Finished: 1st Place in the AFC North
2014 Draft Position: 24th

Preseason Ranking: 12

Week 1: Lost at the Chicago Bears, 24-21
    Ranked - 18
    If the Bengals can truly establish a running game and become two-dimensional, they will be difficult to stop.

Week 2: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-10
    Ranked - 10
    The class of the AFC North… If the Bengals do not win the division, there will be a lot of explaining to do on their part.

Week 3: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 34-30
    Ranked - 10
    A great, comeback win against Green Bay. The Bengals of old would have quit after the Packers rolled them during the second and third quarters, but not these 2013 Bengals.

Week 4: Lost at the Cleveland Browns, 17-6
    Ranked - 17
    Just when you think the division is theirs for the taking, the Bengals go out and get beat by the Browns. Nothing like creating a log jam of mediocrity in the AFC North.

Week 5: Defeated the New England Patriots, 13-6
    Ranked - 13
    A big win at home over the Patriots may be just the thing this Bengals team needs to propel them on to greatness.

Week 6: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 27-24
    Ranked - 9
    All alone in first place, the AFC North is theirs to rule for the time being.

Week 7: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 27-24
    Ranked - 8
    The Bengals are playing tough football and starting to break away from the pack in the AFC North.

Week 8: Defeated the New York Jets, 49-9
    Ranked - 6
    Marvin Jones! Four touchdowns to help Cincinnati take a commanding lead in the AFC North.

Week 9: Lost at the Miami Dolphins, 22-20
    Ranked - 8
    A bad loss on Halloween will ultimately hurt Cincinnati's playoff seeding more than its standing in the division.

Week 10: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 20-17
    Ranked - 10
    Still in control of the division, the Bengals can't let games against their division rivals slip away.

Week 11: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 41-20
    Ranked - 7
    Cincinnati has complete control of the AFC North. Now they are playing for a bye-week advantage in the playoffs.

Week 12: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 8
    A late season bye week should be just the refresher the Bengals need to make their final push towards a division title and the AFC playoffs.

Week 13: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 17-10
    Ranked - 8
    An unimpressive win over an unimpressive opponent. Cincinnati is the least interesting of the division leaders right now.

Week 14: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 42-28
    Ranked - 8
    Cincinnati has pretty much clinched the AFC North, but they will be hard pressed to secure a first-round bye… which could lead to a difficult Wild Card matchup against the Chiefs.

Week 15: Lost at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-20
    Ranked - 8
    A rough night in Pittsburgh has the Bengals suddenly scrambling to maintain control of a division that seemed in the bag just a few short weeks ago.

Week 16: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 42-14
    Ranked - 7
    The Bengals have clinched the AFC North. They can gain a first-round bye if they win and the Patriots lose this weekend.

Week 17: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 34-17
    Ranked - 6
    Could a Sunday Wild Card game make a difference for the Bengals? Probably, especially with the Chargers coming to town.

Wild Card Round: Lost to the San Diego Chargers, 27-10

Final Ranking: 10

Tomorrow, the 2013 San Diego Chargers...

Season Recap - 2011 Cincinnati Bengals

Final Record: 9-7 (0-1)
Finished: 3^rd Place in the AFC North; Lost in Wild Card Round
2012 Draft Position: 21^st

Preseason Ranking: 32

Week 1: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 27-17
    Ranked - 12
    Another surprise team, the Bengals kept the Bungles at bay for at least one week. This may be the only victory of the season for them so Cincinnati fans best savor this moment.

Week 2: Lost at the Denver Broncos, 24-22
    Ranked - 18
    For my money, the Bengals are second only to the Detroit Lions as the surprise team of the early season. Already they have one more victory than some experts predicted and they nearly had two. They are certainly no match for Baltimore or Pittsburgh, but they are a match for the 49ers and a victory in front of the home crowd could have them tied for first place after three weeks.

Week 3: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 13-8
    Ranked - 22
    Note to self: When everything is starting to go wrong, guarantee the ridiculous and everything will be fine. Signed, Marvin Lewis

Week 4: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 23-20
    Ranked - 18
    I owe you an apology, Coach Lewis. You were right. But that was still a ridiculous guarantee.

Week 5: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 30-20
    Ranked - 14
    Andy Dalton may not have the stats Cam Newton has, but he has three times as many wins. For quarterbacks, that alone is the true measure of their success. Should the Bengals start putting up Panther-like numbers, this team will scare some people come December.

Week 6: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 27-17
    Ranked - 10     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Owner Mike Brown: [Smiling about the draft picks he has gained from the Oakland Raiders] How fortunate our failure to retire you, Carson Palmer. You survive to be of service to us once again. 
    Carson Palmer: Well, you know me, always glad to help.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 10
    The surprise team of 2011 comes out of its bye week fresh and ready to keep on winning.

Week 8: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 34-12
    Ranked - 9
    Surprise, surprise. The Bengals are not only relevant halfway through the season, they are quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with.

Week 9: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 24-17
    Ranked - 6
    They just keep winning. Will midnight ever strike for this young Cinderella?

Week 10: Lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-17
    Ranked - 10
    Tough loss against the Steelers, but the Bengals have nothing to be ashamed about.

Week 11: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 31-24
    Ranked - 10
    The Bengals may be the third best team in their division, but a Wild Card is by no means out of the question.

Week 12: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 23-20
    Ranked - 11
    How great would it be if Cincinnati actually made the playoffs this year?

Week 13: Lost at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 35-7
    Ranked - 13
    Tough losses of late have slowed Cincinnati's surprising run at the playoffs.

Week 14: Lost to the Houston Texans, 20-19
    Ranked - 17
    The Bengals have dropped a couple and are now fading in the AFC.

Week 15: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 20-13
    Ranked - 11
    The surprise team of the AFC is holding on… and losses by both Baltimore and Pittsburgh definitely helps Cincinnati's cause.

Week 16: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 23-16
    Ranked - 9
    C'mon, Cincinnati. Complete your Cinderella run into the playoffs by knocking off the Ravens this weekend.

Week 17: Lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 24-16
    Ranked - 10
    Cinderella made it to the playoffs. Now we just have to figure out if she can dance.

Wild Card Round: Lost at the Houston Texans, 31-10


Final Ranking: 12


Tomorrow, the 2011 Atlanta Falcons...

Season Recap - 2010 Cincinnati Bengals

Final Record: 4-12

Finished: 4^th place in the AFC North

2011 Draft Position: 4^th

Preseason Ranking:   24
Preseason Letter of Misfortune (by Scottie V):

Do you wonder if Carson Palmer ever just wakes up and thinks, “Why does my general manager hate me so much??” I’ve got a feeling Carson had one of those moments a few weeks ago when he found out that the much-traveled and habitual quarterback bus-thrower-underer Terrell Owens had signed with the Bengals. Yikes! On a team that loves its reality show-fodder athletes, I’m thinking Mr. Palmer could start his own show in the dangerous work genre: “The Deadliest Catch” and “Ice Road Truckers” would have nothing on Carson’s new show, “Cincinnati Bengals Quarterback”.

T.O. on his own is a handful, but the Bengals already have Chad Ochocinco. Double yikes!! As an Oregon State fan and alum, I still have fond memories of Chad (I still have a hard time with “Ochocinco”… he’ll always be “Johnson” to me) tearing up the Pac-10 and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. But, let’s be honest, to say that he is erratic is putting it nicely. I have visions of a whiteboard on the sidelines simply dedicated to tallying how many times each of these receivers has been thrown to. Or worse yet, since these two fellas claim to be buddies, what if they team up and pour their collective discontent on the noble Carson? On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals also brought in hardened criminal and occasional football player Adam “Pacman” Jones in the off-season to strengthen their rap sheet - I mean, roster sheet. As a middle-of-the-road team in the AFC, it could get ugly in Cincy.

But enough about football drama, let’s talk about the reality shows. Amazingly, Chad and T.O. each have their own shows. Simply awesome. To borrow a quote from Jerry Seinfeld, “I’m pretty sure that reality is the last thing these guys are qualified to give us a show about.” I must admit that I have never seen T.O.’s “T.O. Show”. I don’t think I would be a better person for having watched it. I have seen approximately 15 broken-up minutes-worth (how could anyone watch for 15 consecutive minutes??) of Chad’s “Ultimate Catch” show. The experience left me feeling very unclean and pretty certain the only thing Mr. Ochocinco may ultimately catch is a raging case of syphilis. If Chad can’t find love, what hope is there for the rest of us??

Prediction: If ever there was a roster fit for a “Wildcard” spot, it is this team. But 3rd place in the AFC North ain’t going to get it done. On the bright side, guys can get an early start on the next season of their shows.

Bonus prediction: Neither T.O. nor Chad will be Bengals in the 2011 season. The character pendulum will swing drastically from “crazy” to “Tebow”.

Week 1: Lost at New England Patriots, 38-24

Ranked - 24

            One of the few teams whose ranking neither went up nor down. Good news, you were expected to be here. Bad news, here is no place you want to be.

Week 2: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 15-10

Ranked – 18

Batman and Robin hardly stellar, but the Bengals Defense carried the day and helped Cincinnati move up a bit in the rankings.

Week 3: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 20-7

Ranked – 13

In the rain, it's difficult to throw the ball, but at least the running game and the defense rose to the occasion against a struggling foe. Win on the road in Cleveland next week and you might almost be considered among the Fortunate Seven after three straight wins.

Week 4: Lost at Cleveland Browns, 23-20

Ranked – 15

Losing to Cleveland, even in Cleveland, is never a good way to try and take a big step forward in the division.

Week 5: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 24-21

Ranked – 26

More disappointment at home for the Bengals. Games lost like this have cost teams their seasons. Will Batman and Robin be able to lead this team back from the brink? 

Week 6: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 23

A bye week without any arrests. Maybe the Bengals have finally started to show signs of discipline.

Week 7: Lost at Atlanta Falcons, 39-32

Ranked – 23

The Bengals do just enough to keep themselves relevant, but not enough to actually be victorious.

Week 8: Lost to Miami Dolphins, 22-14

Ranked – 25

At 2-5, I say go ahead and pick up another ego-centric wide receiver. What the Bengals would lose in credibility they'd make up in ticket sales. 

Week 9: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers, 27-21

Ranked – 25

2-6 in the AFC North is far different from being 2-6 in the NFC's wild, wild West. Despite the late rally, Cincinnati's season died on Monday night unless the T.Ocho show can somehow perform a miracle.

Week 10: Lost at Indianapolis Colts, 23-17

Ranked – 29

As a garbage time fantasy team, this offense is nigh unstoppable!

Week 11: Lost to Buffalo Bills, 49-31

Ranked – 31

An absolutely horrendous performance at home against the Buffalo Bills. When people think of offensive explosions, the Bills don't often come to mind, but Cincinnati made the perennial chumps of the AFC East look like champions.

Week 12: Lost at New York Jets, 26-10

Ranked – 31

If there is one thing you can say about Cincinnati's woeful record - it's anything but average. Maybe the T.Ocho Show should do some investigative reporting on why their team is so terrible.

Week 13: Lost to New Orleans Saints, 34-30

Ranked – 29 (ROCKY WEEK!)

Chad Ochocinco vs Troy Polamalu. Sounds like a damn monster movie!

Week 14: Lost at Pittsburgh Steelers, 23-7

Ranked – 30

Are these Bengals the worst ever Bungles team to take the field, despite the aging offensive firepower at their disposal? Quite possibly, especially since the receivers can't throw the ball to themselves and the quarterback can't block the defensive linemen himself and the offense can't stop the opposing teams from scoring so many points...

Week 15: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 19-17

Ranked – 29

Owens is done for the year and Ochocinco is being limited to allow younger wide receivers a chance to shine.

Week 16: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 34-20

Ranked – 29

Funny how when Ochocinco and Owens aren't in the lineup, Carson Palmer can play loose and go off for four touchdowns. Really makes you think, doesn't it?

Week 17: Lost at Baltimore Ravens, 13-7

Final Rank - 30

Tomorrow, the 2010 Arizona Cardinals...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC North, Part II

From time to time throughout the NFL season, The Art of Creative Misfortune will feature guest posts by my good friend, Scottie V, a raving mad Steelers fan (made only more insufferable by their six Super Bowl championships). When he first heard of the Letters of Misfortune going out to each team, he insisted on writing the letters to the AFC North. Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland fans, I ask your forgiveness ahead of time.

Now, V's Way Out There, Left-Coast Style Letters of Misfortune to the AFC North, Part II...

Cincinnati Bengals



Do you wonder if Carson Palmer ever just wakes up and thinks, “Why does my general manager hate me so much??” I’ve got a feeling Carson had one of those moments a few weeks ago when he found out that the much-traveled and habitual quarterback bus-thrower-underer Terrell Owens had signed with the Bengals. Yikes! On a team that loves its reality show-fodder athletes, I’m thinking Mr. Palmer could start his own show in the dangerous work genre: “The Deadliest Catch” and “Ice Road Truckers” would have nothing on Carson’s new show, “Cincinnati Bengals Quarterback”.

T.O. on his own is a handful, but the Bengals already have Chad Ochocinco. Double yikes!! As an Oregon State fan and alum, I still have fond memories of Chad (I still have a hard time with “Ochocinco”… he’ll always be “Johnson” to me) tearing up the Pac-10 and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. But, let’s be honest, to say that he is erratic is putting it nicely. I have visions of a whiteboard on the sidelines simply dedicated to tallying how many times each of these receivers has been thrown to. Or worse yet, since these two fellas claim to be buddies, what if they team up and pour their collective discontent on the noble Carson? On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals also brought in hardened criminal and occasional football player Adam “Pacman” Jones in the off-season to strengthen their rap sheet - I mean, roster sheet. As a middle-of-the-road team in the AFC, it could get ugly in Cincy.

But enough about football drama, let’s talk about the reality shows. Amazingly, Chad and T.O. each have their own shows. Simply awesome. To borrow a quote from Jerry Seinfeld, “I’m pretty sure that reality is the last thing these guys are qualified to give us a show about.” I must admit that I have never seen T.O.’s “T.O. Show”. I don’t think I would be a better person for having watched it. I have seen approximately 15 broken-up minutes-worth (how could anyone watch for 15 consecutive minutes??) of Chad’s “Ultimate Catch” show. The experience left me feeling very unclean and pretty certain the only thing Mr. Ochocinco may ultimately catch is a raging case of syphilis. If Chad can’t find love, what hope is there for the rest of us??

Prediction: If ever there was a roster fit for a “Wildcard” spot, it is this team. But 3rd place in the AFC North ain’t going to get it done. On the bright side, guys can get an early start on the next season of their shows.

Bonus prediction: Neither T.O. nor Chad will be Bengals in the 2011 season. The character pendulum will swing drastically from “crazy” to “Tebow”.

Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow (You hear that, Google!?)

Pittsburgh Steelers



Hope springs eternal in Latrobe, PA. Despite an offseason of turmoil and bad pub, this too the Steelers will survive. It seems that every year I’m shocked and saddened to see some of their better players leave in pursuit of a bigger payday. I love (but perhaps the players don’t) how the Steelers’ organization sticks to its principles and seldom overpays its players. They accomplish more with a lower payroll than probably any other team in the league. Kind of reminds me of my favorite college team (except replace “payroll” with “stars”… don’t want to get anyone in trouble). “Hip, Hip, Hooray” for frugality!

Now, about that offseason of turmoil and bad pub. Ben Roethlisberger has undoubtedly soiled his reputation with these latest incidents. It is somewhat unclear exactly what happened with these ladies. We know for sure that, at best, Big Ben is Bigtime Careless. At worst, Big Ben is a Big Creepy Criminal. The truth is probably somewhere in between. On the football side of things, Ben and the Steelers have a suspension to worry about. On the human side of things (which I care a little more about), I hope the suspension is long enough to get Ben’s attention and have him re-think his life a bit. That being said, I really hope that about two weeks is long enough to do the trick!

Now, for a very illogical and bold prediction: Big Ben’s suspension will actually help the Steelers in the long run – hopefully this season, but if not, down the line. For too long, the Steelers have played down to their competition and I blame Ben for this – not directly, but indirectly. I think Ben’s penchant for leading the team to a dramatic comeback has subconsciously caused players to let their guard down, thinking that the offense can get it done at any given moment. Often they do, but sometimes the magic just isn’t there. I witnessed this first-hand last season when the Steelers played the Chiefs in Kansas City. Ugh. The biggest test of the first six games of the season will be when the Ravens come to town in Week 4. Big Ben will likely still be out of action, but fortunately the Steelers will have a raucous home field advantage. I like our chances.

If the Curtain can survive the first six weeks (five games, three of which at home) without Ben, it should benefit them for the rest of the season. Hopefully, that time can be spent establishing the ground game which has been atrocious at times the last couple seasons. I like what I see from Rashard Mendenhall, but he hasn’t been as much of a focus of the offense since they have a playmaker such as Big Ben at quarterback. The suspension will force the Steelers to look elsewhere for offense… and they will find it in Rashard. Defensively, the Steelers should be solid as usual. Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith are back in action (both missed most of last season) which will make the unit that much better.

By Steeler standards, the roster stayed relatively unscathed in the offseason. Losing Santonio Holmes will likely turn out to be an addition by subtraction scenario. The Willie Parker departure initially tugs at my heartstrings, but he’s been on the decline for a few years now. Deshea Townshend has been solid lately, but the Steelers seem to always find good corners to plug into their system… Perhaps Keenan Lewis will be next in line to step up? The addition and return of Antwaan Randle El adds some intangible flair to both the offense and special teams. Love cheering for that guy.

And let’s not forget the greatness of Steelers past whose shadows these modern day heroes are playing under. First the great - [EDITOR'S NOTE: Valway has gone where no fan should go, so, in the interest of brevity, I’m stepping in and fast-forwarding through his Letter a bit… Let’s see… two pages about the Steelers of the 70s… three pages cut extolling the virtues of Terry Bradshaw's intelligent commentary... fast forward... 6 Super Bowls, yadda, yadda, yadda... moving on to page 7... decal on only one side of the helmet, funny historical lesson, but no... page 10... in depth discussion of how the Steelers beat the Cowboys in two Super Bowls just to annoy me, absolutely not... fast forwarding to Super Bowl XXX, the only piece of Steeler history worth talking about... another two Super Bowl championships… yes, we understand you’ve won a few…oh, good, he’s finally wrapping things up…]

My Prediction, through Black-and-Gold Colored Lenses: In spite of Ben’s absence for the first few games of the season, the Steelers galvanize as an offensive unit and establish Rashard Mendenhall early, with him averaging over 100 yards per game. Big Ben returns in week 6 to lead this now fully operational offensive powerhouse. Pittsburgh wins the AFC North, sweeping both contests against their bitter rival, the Ravens. The world rejoices.


Tomorrow, letters to the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts...

Hall of Fame Game ~ Prediction Recap and Fantasy Football Result

The Hall of Fame Game played out last night much like you would expect. Dallas looked solid, though would have been even more impressive if their first team offense had come away with a TD at the end of their first drive and they had controlled the ball better. Cincinnati struggled greatly and played very sloppy. Turnovers and penalties hurt them early, often and throughout the game. Whether the Cincinnati offense played their starters or backups, the Dallas defense dominated them, forcing 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, a fumble and a defensive touchdown. If Cincinnati hopes to compete with Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North title, they better get their offense figured out before the season starts.

On Friday I predicted Dallas would come away with a 20-16 victory. Dallas prevailed in a decent game by the final score of 16-7, a little lower than expected. During the regular season I will predict the results of all games. I personally am more focused on getting the winner correct than getting the correct matchup versus any Vegas lines. I also have no illusions about predicting the final scores accurately, since that is nearly impossible with NFL games. My final score predictions are meant to be more of an indication of how close the game itself should be and is a measure of how well the teams stack up against one another. If the final game score is predicted to be 24-23, the two teams are very evenly matched, whereas if the final score prediction is 30-17, one team is clearly better than the other and should have an easy victory. Of course, there are no "easy" victories in the NFL.

Also, as a control value on the games I predict, I will always track how well my predictions stand up against "blind" predictions. Blind predictions are predictions based on no thought being required to choose the winner. The two blind predictions I will use for every game this season will be the following:

1) Control A ~ Home Team Wins, 20-17 (Last season, the home team won 57.7% of the time)

2) Control B ~ Best Record Wins, 20-17; if Records Equal, Home Team wins, 20-17 (Last season, the team with the best record won roughly 60% of the time)

My personal goal is to finish the regular season and playoffs with 70% or better accuracy predicting the winners of each game.

Hall of Fame Game ~ Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup Result*

In a game that ended 16-7, not many fantasy points were to be had. The constant shuffling of players in and out of the game didn't help much for the fantasy scoring either, particularly on Cincinnati's side of the ball. Below are the results of the starting fantasy lineups for each team in the preseason opener. During the regular season, Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football season standings will be updated every Tuesday.

*Note: For this sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the backup players likely to play at least one quarter or more were chosen to compete. All points based on the NFL's official scoring system used for their public, default leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals	pts				pts	Dallas Cowboys
JT O'Sullivan	-1		QB		2	Jon Kitna
Brian Leonard	0		RB1		4	Tashard Choice
Bernard Scott	1		RB2		0	Chris Gronkowski
Jerome Simpson	1		WR1		0	Sam Hurd
Andre Caldwell	0		WR2		0	Titus Ryan
Quan Cosby	1		WR3		2	Kevin Ogletree
Jermaine Gresham	0		TE		6	John Phillips
Dave Rayner	1		K		10	David Buehler
Cincinnati Bengals	11		DEF		22	Dallas Cowboys
Total	14		>>>		46	Total

Tomorrow, Valway returns with letters to the Cincinnati Bengals and his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers... 

Hall of Fame Game ~ Prediction and Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups

Throughout the regular season and playoffs, I will predict the results of NFL matchups and also present each team’s Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football lineup for the week. The fantasy lineups will consist of the most productive players for each team at each position and, just like in real fantasy football (EDITOR’S NOTE: Fantasy football may not be real, ok, but it is reality), there are no substitutions.

If a team’s starting running back gets pulled at the goal-line for the 4th string fullback to vulture the touchdown, then too bad. That team will lose those points in the Creative Misfortune Fantasy matchup. Fantasy standings will be updated every Tuesday and all fantasy scores will be calculated based on the NFL’s official fantasy football scoring system used for their public leagues.

Now, for the first official prediction of the season!
Note: Because this is a pre-season game, this prediction has a plus or minus accuracy of a few points to account for rookie mistakes, general rustiness, reality-show related antics, etc.

Hall of Fame Game Prediction:

	Cincinnati Bengals		16
	Dallas Cowboys		20

Hall of Fame Game Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups*
*Note: For this week’s sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the backup players likely to play at least one quarter or more will be chosen to compete.

Cincinnati Bengals						Dallas Cowboys
JT O'Sullivan			QB			Jon Kitna
Brian Leonard			RB1			Tashard Choice
Bernard Scott			RB2			Chris Gronkowski
Jerome Simpson			WR1			Sam Hurd
Andre Caldwell			WR2			Titus Ryan
Quan Cosby			WR3			Kevin Ogletree
Jermaine Gresham			TE			John Phillips
Dave Rayner			K			David Buehler
Cincinnati Bengals			DEF			Dallas Cowboys

Next week, Hall of Fame Game recap and Letters of Misfortune continue with the AFC North and South divisions...