AFC Predicted Finishes – 2010 Creative Misfortune Fantasy Season

Below are the projected Creative Misfortune Fantasy Season finishes for each AFC team. Any players listed as Key Starters for a team represent players projected to be among the top 10 fantasy scorers in the league at their position.

AFC East ~
     #1 New England Patriots
          Key Starters: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Stephen Gostkowski

     #2 New York Jets
          Key Starters: Defense

     #3 Miami Dolphins
          Key Starters: Brandon Marshall

     #4 Buffalo Bills
          Key Starters: No top 10 position players

AFC North ~
     #1 Pittsburgh Steelers
          Key Starters: Rashard Mendenhall, Defense

     #2 Baltimore Ravens
          Key Starters: Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Defense

     #3 Cincinnati Bengals
          Key Starters: Defense

     #4 Cleveland Browns
          Key Starters: No top 10 position players

AFC South ~
     #1 Indianapolis Colts
          Key Starters: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark

     #2 Houston Texans
          Key Starters: Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Defense

     #3 Tennessee Titans
          Key Starters: Chris Johnson, Rob Bironas

     #4 Jacksonville Jaguars
          Key Starters: Maurice Jones-Drew

AFC West ~
     #1 San Diego Chargers
          Key Starters: Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Nate Kaeding

     #2 Kansas City Chiefs
          Key Starters: No top 10 position players

     #3 Oakland Raiders
          Key Starters: No top 10 position players

     #4 Denver Broncos
          Key Starters: Matt Prater


Projected AFC Playoff Teams ~
     New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts,
     San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens


AFC Preseason Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl I favorite ~

Pittsburgh Steelers

Tomorrow, ranking the NFC based on their projected fantasy football prowess and picking the NFC preseason Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl I favorite…

"If Real Football Used Fantasy Football Scoring…” Details

Fantasy football has morphed into a billion-dollar industry over the last 15 years or so. No longer played by stat geeks pushing pencils and checking box scores by hand in newspapers, fantasy sports, particularly fantasy football, have exploded in popularity with the advent of internet-based leagues, real-time scoring and a myriad of other features. Many custom leagues strive for an NFL feel by having keepers, salary caps, etc., but each fantasy roster is still packed with all-pro players from around the league. In baseball, this makes sense. Look at the actual rosters fielded by the Yankees and Red Sox. Just like in fantasy football, in baseball you can buy players late in the season and use them to win a championship.

Actual football, however, does not have this same characteristic. Since football is much more of a team sport than baseball, few positions on the gridiron can be filled by plugging players into the lineup late in the season. Players need time to learn to work together. Kickers are the only position where a "plug-and-play" mentality would actually work on a football team. The next closest position would possibly be a shutdown corner, but then it would only work if the coach gave the new corner explicit instructions to disregard all defensive alignments and lock up on a specific receiver in man-to-man coverage on every play.

Aside from those select positions, every other player on the football field has very specific rules they have to follow when a play is called if their team hopes to be successful. Individual players can win you a game or two a season in the NFL. However, individual players that don’t play as part of the team will never be successful in the long run.

Football is further complicated by the fact that a player may be a superstar in one system and merely an average player in another. In baseball, a starting pitcher capable of throwing 7 shutout innings in Texas can do the same in Seattle, New York or Baltimore. He may not win the game, but his ability to pitch will not change. Different blocking schemes and different defensive alignments and coverages all make moving players from one NFL team to another somewhat of a gamble. Name a team that has won the Super Bowl by “buying” an NFL championship? You can’t. In fact, the opposite tends to happen. Just look at Exhibit A – the Washington Redskins.

Since the NFL is such a team sport, and fantasy football is anything but a team game, I wondered what would happen if real NFL games were decided by typical fantasy football scoring and rules. Will the dominate teams that challenge for the real Super Bowl by mixing and matching players to get the best possible outcome fair as well in a fantasy season where they get no points if their third string running back scores the TD or they only get points for the quarterback’s TD pass, but not for the fourth-string receiver left on their bench who caught it?

As an experiment, The Art of Creative Misfortune will run a fantasy football season based on the NFL schedule to figure out how the season would turn out if real football used fantasy football scoring. This preseason I have done sample fantasy matchups to give you a taste of what the results would look like. So far, with backup players, the fantasy results have mirrored the actual game results, but will that hold true once the rosters are finalized and the NFL regular season kicks off next week?

To make the first ever Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football season as “official” as possible, the season games will be based on the rules used by NFL.com’s default public fantasy leagues.

Roster Details - Every Friday (or Thursdays before Thursday night games), the Creative Misfortune Fantasy Starting Lineups will be set for each game. Based on the NFL rules, each starting lineup will consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense. The lineup will be filled out each week based on the most productive fantasy players on the team for each position leading up to that week. Starting players will be replaced during the season, if need be, as they are replaced in real life by events such as injuries, coaching decisions, etc.

Note: Because coaches love to jerk around the fantasy football world and say players will play or won’t play or tag players with questionable injury designations when they have a pretty good idea about whether or not a player will play on Sunday, only players tagged as doubtful or out when the lineups are set will be benched.

Scoring Details – Scoring for each fantasy game will be determined by the NFL’s default fantasy scoring system, listed below.

Offensive Scoring
1 pt for every 25 yards passing
1 pt for every 10 yards rushing or receiving
4 pts for every passing TD
6 pts for every rushing or receiving TD
2 pts for a two-point conversion (passing, rushing or receiving)
-2 pts for an interception or lost fumble

Defensive Scoring
1 pt for every sack
2 pts for an interception, a fumble recovery or a safety
6 pts for a defensive TD (interception or fumble)
6 pts for a kickoff or punt return touchdown
    A starting offensive player who returns a kick for a TD will not be given double points

10 pts if the defense allows 0 offensive points
7 pts if the defense allows 1-6 offensive points
4 pts if the defense allows 7-13 offensive points
1 pt if the defense allows 14-20 offensive points
0 pts if the defense allows 21-27 offensive points
-1 pt if the defense allows 28-34 offensive points
-4 pts if the defense allows 35+ offensive points

Kicking Scoring
1 pt for each PAT
3 pts for any field goal between 0-49 yards
5 pts for any field goal 50+ yards
   Kickers will not lose any points for missing field goals

Season Schedule – The Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football regular season will last the first 12 weeks of the 2010 NFL schedule. Standings and game results will be updated every Tuesday. The playoffs begin Week 13 and go through Week 16.

Weeks 1-12: Regular Season Games
Week 13: Wild Card Playoff Games
Week 14: Divisional Playoff Games*
Week 15: Championship Playoff Games
Week 16: Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl I

Teams will qualify for the fantasy playoffs exactly the same way they qualify in the NFL (the four division champions and the two teams with the best record who did not win their division will qualify in each conference).

*To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.

For example, if Indianapolis earned the playoff bye and scored 80 fantasy points in Week 13, they would receive 20 bonus points (80/4) for their Divisional matchup. Conversely, if they had an off week and scored 22 fantasy points, they would only receive 5 bonus points (22/4, any fractional points rounded down).

Since there is no bye week between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.



My hope is this will prove to be an interesting and entertaining experiment. While it is highly probable the fantasy playoff teams will match up with the actual NFL playoff teams this season, I believe we may see some fantasy surprises.

Tomorrow, ranking the AFC based on their projected fantasy football prowess and picking the AFC preseason Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl I favorite…

Week 3 Preseason Halftime Score Predictions Roundup

This week's preseason games are perfect examples of why you would have to be crazy to seriously bet anything on any preseason results. Trying to predict the halftime scores is outlandish enough. Actually betting real money on these games or any part of these games is beyond my comprehension.

Now, let's see just how bad my halftime picks were, starting back with the Thursday night games just to be complete...

Thursday Night Halftime Score Prediction Recaps:

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots
     New England should have no problem handling the Rams and will take a commanding 21-3 lead into the locker room.
     INCORRECT. Wow, impressive 20-14 first half victory on the road, St. Louis. And you even managed to win the game outright.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
     A far more intriguing matchup, and a possible Super Bowl preview, Green Bay wins the first half at home, 17-16.
     CORRECT. Even more high scoring than I expected, Green Bay runs away with a solid 28-17 halftime victory.


Friday Halftime Score Prediction Recaps:

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
     No advantage will be gained by either team as they battle to a 17-17 halftime draw in South Florida.
     INCORRECT. Atlanta ran away with the first half, 10-3, gaining a clear advantage in South Florida.

Washington Redskins at New York Jets
     New York wins a tight first half against the dysfunctional Redskins, 10-7.
     INCORRECT. It was a tight, ugly first 30 minutes with the kind of score you'd expect to see between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals. Washington proves me wrong with a 6-5 halftime victory. Honestly, if anybody picks the first half score of an NFL game to be 6-5, walk away from them. They are obviously crazy.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints
     Two high-flying offenses put up the points in a possible Super Bowl preview, but enter the locker room with the scoreboard deadlocked at 20-20.
     INCORRECT. Neither team reached the 20 point mark until the second half, but the Saints managed a late field goal to break-up my predicted tie. Man, that city gets all the breaks...

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
     The Eagles take control of the game and win the first two quarters on the road, 14-10.
     CORRECT: Finally, the Eagles do something I can admire and win the first half as I predicted. It wasn't a perfect score prediction (they never will be) but a 10-7 victory is almost the same as a 14-10 victory. I'm sure some math wizard out there could prove me right.

Saturday Halftime Score Prediction Recaps:

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
     Even in a preseason game, this matchup makes me want to roll my eyes. Detroit holds serve at home and wins the first half, 13-10.
     INCORRECT. Cleveland throws up 24 first half points by scoring practically every way possible. It ended up being an exciting game. Too bad nobody watched it.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
     Both offenses struggle early, but Buffalo pulls away with a short field goal to take the 10-7 halftime victory.
     CORRECT: Buffalo and Cincinnati both surprise by getting their offenses off to quick starts, but Buffalo prevails as predicted with a 21-14 halftime lead.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Can preseason games be blacked out? I guess we'll find out. Jacksonville wins the first half of this road game, 13-7.
     INCORRECT: Tampa Bay holds Jacksonville's sputtering offense to just two field goals in the first half to prove me wrong with a 10-6 halftime victory.


New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
     Baltimore dominates in this east coast matchup and takes a comfortable 20-9 lead into the locker room.
     CORRECT. The closest prediction so far. Score one for me! Baltimore dominated this east coast matchup and took a comfortable 17-3 lead into the locker room.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
     This potential shoot-out gets upstaged by stingy defense in the red zone. Dallas manages the extra field goal to gain a 13-10 advantage at the half.
     INCORRECT. At least one team from Texas played this game like it mattered and wanted to prove they belonged in the playoff talks. Dallas, you looked pathetic. Down 13-0 at halftime, it wasn't even that close. Jerry Jones did not look happy in the press box. Remember those looks of annoyance. He will look ten times worse if you don't win the Super Bowl at home this year.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
     Brett Favre plays more than four plays and Seattle has no chance on their trip to the Midwest. Vikings are dominating at halftime, 21-3.
     INCORRECT. 10-10 tie at halftime. I guess Favre needs more than two weeks to get into the swing of things.

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers
     Carolina surprises Tennessee early and holds on for a 13-10 lead at the break.
     INCORRECT. Both teams surprised each other so badly that neither team figured out how to score! 0-0 at the break. Carolina did pull away in the second half, but too late for this pick to be accurate.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
     Unlike in recent years, nobody thinks they know who either of these teams are. They each may have been who we thought they were, but that doesn't mean either team has a chance to come out ahead by halftime. Game tied 14-14 when they hit the locker room after two quarters.
     INCORRECT: Arizona wins the first 30 minutes 7-0 and nobody yet knows who either of these teams are.


San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders
     Strong defensive play and sloppy offensive mistakes keep this close at the halfway mark, but San Francisco will have the 10-7 lead.
     CORRECT: Higher scoring than expected, but finally, the right team heads into the locker room with the lead. San Francisco adds one more to my win column with a 17-14 halftime victory.

Sunday Halftime Score Prediction Recap:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
     In the Mile High City, the halftime score will be anything but. Pittsburgh and Denver battle to a 10-10 standstill after the first 30 minutes.
     INCORRECT. Pittsburgh was driving in the closing seconds of the first half to make this a perfect 10-10 pick for me... but then Goodman stole a Dennis Dixon pass and returned it 77 yards in the wrong direction, stealing all hope for a perfect halftime prediction away from me.

Final Tally: 5 correct, 11 incorrect (31.3% accuracy... but when read as a Batting Average, .313 is a great number, especially with runners in scoring position!)

Wow, even trying to be that inept I couldn't have been that inept. Preseason game prognostication - if you try and apply logic, you have no chance. What did Jerry Seinfeld once tell George Castanza? "If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite, no matter how unlikely, has to be right."

Based on that logic, Creative Misfortune proudly presents the Cleveland Browns and the St. Louis Rams as his Super Bowl XLV favorites. That's right. These picks can't possibly lose! Thanks for the tip, Jerry.


Check back later today for details regarding Creative Misfortune’s first ever season of “If Real Football Used Fantasy Football Scoring…”

Creative Misfortune Preseason Week 3 Halftime Score Predictions, Part II

Most NFL teams, historically, have used the third week of the preseason to give their starters extensive playing time - at least a full half or more - to determine how they are coming together and what potential issues will need to be addressed before the regular season kicks off. To celebrate this concept, Creative Misfortune proudly presents its first annual prediction of Preseason Week 3 Halftime Scores.

Last night, I went 1-for-2 in my Thursday Night halftime score predictions. Let's hope I fair better with my halftime picks for this weekend's games.

Thursday Night Halftime Score Prediction Recaps:

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots
     New England should have no problem handling the Rams and will take a commanding 21-3 lead into the locker room.
     INCORRECT. Wow, impressive 20-14 first half victory on the road, St. Louis. And you even managed to win the game outright.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
     A far more intriguing matchup, and a possible Super Bowl preview, Green Bay wins the first half at home, 17-16.
     CORRECT. Even more high scoring than I expected, Green Bay runs away with a solid 28-17 halftime victory.

On with the rest of this week's predictions...

Friday Game Predictions:

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
     No advantage will be gained by either team as they battle to a 17-17 halftime draw in South Florida.

Washington Redskins at New York Jets
     New York wins a tight first half against the dysfunctional Redskins, 10-7.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints
     Two high-flying offenses put up the points in a possible Super Bowl preview, but enter the locker room with the scoreboard deadlocked at 20-20.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
     The Eagles take control of the game and win the first two quarters on the road, 14-10.


Saturday Game Predictions:

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
     Even in a preseason game, this matchup makes me want to roll my eyes. Detroit holds serve at home and wins the first half, 13-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
     Both offenses struggle early, but Buffalo pulls away with a short field goal to take the 10-7 halftime victory.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Can preseason games be blacked out? I guess we'll find out. Jacksonville wins the first half of this road game, 13-7.

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
     Baltimore dominates in this east coast matchup and takes a comfortable 20-9 lead into the locker room.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
     This potential shoot-out gets upstaged by stingy defense in the red zone. Dallas manages the extra field goal to gain a 13-10 advantage at the half.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
     Brett Favre plays more than four plays and Seattle has no chance on their trip to the Midwest. Vikings are dominating at halftime, 21-3.

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers
     Carolina surprises Tennessee early and holds on for a 13-10 lead at the break.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
     Unlike in recent years, nobody thinks they know who either of these teams are. They each may have been who we thought they were, but that doesn't mean either team has a chance to come out ahead by halftime. Game tied 14-14 when they hit the locker room after two quarters.

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders
     Strong defensive play and sloppy offensive mistakes keep this close at the halfway mark, but San Francisco will have the 10-7 lead.


Sunday Night Game Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
     In the Mile High City, the halftime score will be anything but. Pittsburgh and Denver battle to a 10-10 standstill after the first 30 minutes.


Next week, details regarding Creative Misfortune’s first ever season of “If Real Football Used Fantasy Football Scoring…”

Creative Misfortune Preseason Week 3 Halftime Score Predictions, Part I

Most NFL teams, historically, have used the third week of the preseason to give their starters extensive playing time - at least a full half or more - to determine how they are coming together and what potential issues will need to be addressed before the regular season kicks off. To celebrate this concept, Creative Misfortune proudly presents its first annual prediction of Preseason Week 3 Halftime Scores.

Two games are scheduled for later tonight. The remaining games on the schedule will be predicted tomorrow.

Now, for the Thursday Night Halftime Score Predictions:

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots
     New England should have no problem handling the Rams and will take a commanding 21-3 lead into the locker room.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
     A far more intriguing matchup, and a possible Super Bowl preview, Green Bay wins the first half at home, 17-16.

Tomorrow, predicting the rest of the NFL’s week 3 preseason games through halftime...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC South, Part II

New Orleans Saints



Defending Super Bowl Champions. The Aints no more. On their championship run, Drew Brees and the Saints out-dueled three Hall of Fame quality quarterbacks – Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning – to forever secure their place in NFL history.

New Orleans will try and become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since New England took home the prize for both Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX. The task could prove to be a monumental challenge for the plucky Saints. Teams have only repeated as Super Bowl champions seven times in the 44-year history of the game: Green Bay - I & II, Miami – VII & VIII, Pittsburgh – IX & X, Pittsburgh – XIII & XIV, San Francisco – XXIII & XXIV, Dallas – XXVII & XXVIII, Denver – XXXII & XXXIII and New England – XXXVIII & XXXIX.

Given the above list of repeat champions – Green Bay, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and New England – all are storied franchises and none have experienced the futility New Orleans has experienced in its history. Even teams that have yet to win a Super Bowl have richer winning traditions than New Orleans.

It will not be easy for the Saints to join the elite list of repeat champions. New Orleans faces stiff competition from within the division. Atlanta will challenge them for the title and Carolina could steal a game or two from them as a motivated division rival. Outside their division, they face tough games against Dallas and Minnesota, but should find easier sledding against the AFC North and NFC West teams they match up with in 2010. New Orleans has no reason to lose any of those 8 games, with their most difficult test coming at Baltimore in week 15.

The offense will continue its high-flying, aerial attack in 2010 and the defense will do its part to keep opposing offenses from matching them score for score. Last season the Saints benefited from turnovers and fortunate bounces that went their way, but the defense's ability to swarm the ball should give them more of the same this year.

Only Atlanta stands in the way of a division title for them and only Dallas, Minnesota and Green Bay are strong enough to challenge them for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The schedule sets up nicely for New Orleans to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Now they have to go out and prove 2009 was no fluke and bury the taint of the Aints once and for all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers



2009 couldn’t have gone much worse for the Bucs. Had it been 1989, nobody would have thought twice about their continued ineptness, but just a handful of years removed from the dominate defenses of Tony Dungy and the Super Bowl championship under the lead of Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay’s fall from grace is surprising. A team chock full of youth and talent, with little veteran support in key roles, Tampa Bay doesn’t look to end their tailspin of futility anytime soon.

Inexperience and youth lead the team at the quarterback position. No quarterback on the roster has more than three years of experience and all of them combined have only started 13 games in the NFL. Growing pains will be the expected norm for the offense. Not only is experience lacking at quarterback, but the receiving corps is also a hotbed of raw, inexperienced talent. The running game, keyed by Cadillac Williams, shows some signs of life, but will not be much of a factor as Tampa Bay will spend most of the season trying to come back from large deficits.

Realistically, nobody expects any kind of breakout year for Tampa Bay. They might improve on their three wins from a year ago, but six wins seems to be the upper limit of what this team can accomplish unless their opponents completely fall apart and make the mental mistakes the Buccaneers of yesteryear were famous for making. Tampa Bay is playing this year to determine what additional steps will need to be made during the offseason to end their tailspin in 2011.


Check back later today for the first of the Creative Misfortune Preseason Week 3 Halftime Score Predictions featuring St. Louis, New England, Indianapolis and Green Bay...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC South, Part I

Atlanta Falcons



The strongest of the teams in the NFC South not playing in New Orleans, Atlanta has a real shot to shake off Matt Ryan’s sophomore slump and challenge for the division title in 2010. The Atlanta franchise had never managed to string together two consecutive winning seasons until 2008 (11-5) and 2009 (9-7). There is no reason they should not extend their streak to three consecutive winning seasons this year.

Matt Ryan, though he stumbled a bit his second season, is a budding superstar with a firm grasp on the offense. The offensive line has had no turnover from the previous season and should not only protect Ryan but also open holes for Atlanta's two talented running backs, Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. If those two can stay healthy (a problem last year) the running game should be able to close out games. The passing game also boasts talent, with star wide receiver Roddy White challenging secondaries deep and hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez the perfect safety valve for a young quarterback.

Defense remains the biggest question mark for this team. Last season the defense came under fire and didn’t have the players skilled enough to shutdown the more powerful offenses in the league. To address these concerns, Atlanta spent their first two draft picks on defensive talent. First-rounder Sean Weatherspoon is expected to start sooner rather than later and be an impact player at outside linebacker. Third-rounder Corey Peters, a defensive tackle, will add depth to their defensive line rotation. The free-agent addition of Dunta Robinson in the secondary will allow the front seven to call more aggressive schemes and get after opposing offenses, something they were unable to do in 2009.

It will be difficult for any team in the South to dethrone the defending champion New Orleans Saints, but the Falcons are poised to fly into the playoffs as a wild card if they can’t steal the division outright.

Carolina Panthers



The quarterback struggles continue in Carolina. Matt Moore, named the starter after the Panthers released Jake Delhomme during the offseason, has had his share of difficulty during the preseason. His production against the New York Jets last Saturday was downright offensive. For the second straight preseason game Moore failed to lead his team to any points and managed only to complete 6 of the 17 passes he attempted. He has only hit 42% of his passes in two preseason games, been sacked three times and thrown one interception. Not the kind of numbers the coaching staff is looking for from their young starter who finished the 2009 season strong after replacing Delhomme in the lineup. Granted, the Panthers faced two of the league’s stronger defenses so far in their preseason schedule, but even considering that, Moore’s play has not been up to par.

If Moore continues to underperform, the Panthers have little depth behind him to step in and take the reins. Rookie Jimmy Clausen hasn’t performed much better. He’s shown a bit more accuracy than Moore has, completing 17 of 27 passes so far (45%), but he has also been picked off in each game he has seen action. The two quarterbacks have combined to throw three interceptions and no touchdowns. They face a strong Tennessee defense in week 3 of the preseason, so these numbers may not improve.

Hampering the young quarterbacks for Carolina is the lack of depth and skill at wide receiver. Steve Smith should be back in time for the regular season opener, fully recovered from his broken arm, but there is nobody else on this team able to challenge defensive secondaries. The receivers, excluding Smith, on Carolina’s roster have a combined 48 catches in the NFL.

With young quarterbacks, young receivers and a running game trying to reassert itself, Carolina faces an uphill battle in the division in 2010 and will be fighting for the scraps from the tables of Atlanta and New Orleans.


Tomorrow, letters to the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part II

Green Bay Packers



Last season Green Bay got everything they could ever hope for from the 2009 Favre-led Vikings (aside from the two losses to Minnesota). A 6-10 record for Minnesota really wouldn’t have done anything for the Packer faithful. They witnessed instead what they should have been hoping for all along - a heart-breaking, season-ending defeat Minnesota fans optimistically denied would happen again, despite having lost multiple Super Bowls and Championship games in the past, all because Favre decided to switch colors.

Packer fans could have only found truly legitimate satisfaction when Favre finished the Vikings’ season with an interception in the NFC Championship Game in the final minutes as he did against New Orleans. The only better situation would have been for the interception to come in the waning seconds of the Super Bowl, but there’s no need to get greedy.

This year, however, things are different. Favre once again played his diva card with all the “will he or won’t he” talk. Favre deciding to play for Minnesota is no longer the feel good story of the NFL. Teams annoyed by his antics will be gunning for him and Green Bay will be no exception. This year no Packer fan in their right mind would want to see Minnesota in the playoffs.

Green Bay is ready to take back control of the NFC North. They are stacked on offense, powerful on defense and have a chip on their shoulder to prove once and for all that Favre may have been great, but he is no longer the hall of fame quarterback he used to be. The two bitter contests with Minnesota this year will decide the division and the Vikings no longer can be considered favorites in both those games.

The Packers are a team to be reckoned with in 2010. They will remind the Vikings what it takes for a franchise to not only make it to the Super Bowl, but also win the game. They are tired of hearing about Brett Favre. They are tired of hearing the Vikings named as Super Bowl contenders. They are tired of losing the division to a swell of Purple Pride.

This season, the Packers have every reason in the world to rise up and knock Minnesota down. They will only have themselves to blame if they fall short and once again toil in the shadow of the Vikings and the great Brett Favre.

Minnesota Vikings



To paraphrase a quote from Marion in Raiders of the Lost Ark, “I’ve learned to hate the Vikings in the last ten years.”

I won’t bother quoting from the rest of the line, because, frankly, that would be weird, but suffice it to say, my dislike of the Vikings has steadily grown over the decade I have lived here in the frozen north. When I first moved to Minnesota, the Vikings were a surprising team, going 15-1 en route to a colossal, heart-breaking collapse in the NFC Championship game. I felt bad for them. I really did.

As the years went by and the jaded optimism of the typical Vikings fan became more apparent, I started to hope for their team to struggle. When Favre first arrived in town in 2009 and the local media covered his trip to Winter Park (the Vikings training facility in Eden Prairie, Minnesota) like it was the O. J. Simpson van, it almost seemed cute to see a fan base so infatuated with a player. It was quite annoying this year when the same thing happened after Favre played the “I just don’t know” card until the Vikings upped his contract and sent the three musketeers down to Mississippi to get him.

I know I won’t get my wish for the Vikings to finish with a 3-13 record this year (they play the NFC East, so I’d love for them to beat the Giants, Eagles and Redskins). They are too good to be that woeful, but they will struggle this season. Favre is a year older, another year and an injury slower, and has almost no chance of duplicating the magic of last season. Adrian Peterson is the fumbling man at running back and without Chester Taylor to change things up, he will have to take on more of the load than he has in recent years.

The defense is great, but with the continuing suspension saga surrounding the Williams Wall, the Vikings D could find themselves trying to fill a gaping hole at their center. If the 49ers ability to run the ball on Sunday night is any indication of the Vikings run defense starting to fail, this could truly become a team that needs to win shoot-outs in order to be successful.

At least they’ll have a gunslinger at quarterback. They have that going for them.
 
Tomorrow, the Letters of Misfortune visit the NFC South...

Sunday Night Football ~ Prediction Recap and Fantasy Football Result

The Vikings celebrated the return of Brett Favre to the starting lineup by letting the San Francisco 49ers run all over their defense to start the game and then allowed their graying quarterback to be sacked badly on one of his four plays. So much for my perfect preseason prediction record.

San Francisco came into the game ready to prove last year's Favre heroics to defeat them were a fluke. The 49ers looked much better in their second preseason game. Though they defeated Indianapolis quite easily their first time out, they did so despite sloppy play from their quarterbacks. Against the Vikings, San Francisco took a step forward in their quest to become NFC West division champions.

Minnesota, on the other hand, looked disinterested, even bored. Perhaps the Favre drama has taken far more out of them than they would like to admit? Now, more than ever, other defenses will be gunning to put Favre down. New Orleans showed last year the Vikings are susceptible to the blitz and San Francisco reminded the league last night that picking up the blitz is not Minnesota's specialty. Although four plays is not nearly enough of a sample size to project how the season will play out with Favre behind center again, Vikings fans have to be a bit concerned by the aggressive way the 49ers harassed their wizened superstar. In a copy-cat league you can bet other teams will be eager to test both Favre's durability and mobility once the regular season gets underway.

On Friday, I predicted the Minnesota Vikings would come away with a 24-20 preseason victory over the 49ers, but San Francisco had different ideas and broke up my perfect prediction streak by upending the Vikings with a very unorthodox football score, 15-10.

The Creative Misfotune Fantasy Matchup proved to be a bit more entertaining. San Francisco played without the benefit of a starting quarterback. Coach Singletary decided to keep back-up quarterback David Carr on the bench, which could have had a serious impact on the Fantasy Matchup result had Minnesota's Sage Rosenfels actually completed more than two of the handful of passes he attempted.

Sunday Night Football - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Result

Minnesota Vikings	pts				pts	San Francisco 49ers
Sage Rosenfels	0		QB		0	David Carr
Toby Gerhart	2		RB1		11	Anthony Dixon
Darius Reynaud	0		RB2		1	Michael Robinson
Logan Payne	0		WR1		0	Jason Hill
Marko Mitchell	0		WR2		0	Kevin Jurovich
Greg Lewis	0		WR3		3	Dominique Ziegler
Garrett Mills	1		TE		2	Nate Byham
Ryan Longwell	3		K		0	Shane Andrus
Minnesota Vikings	5		DEF		10	San Francisco 49ers
Total	11		>>>		27	Total

Despite not playing their second-string quarterback and deciding to use their primary kicker for field goals and extra points the entire game, San Francisco managed to come away with a solid 27-11 fantasy victory, showing their fantasy depth to be nearly three times better than the Vikings.


Tomorrow, letters to the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC North, Part I

Chicago Bears



Playing quarterback in the NFL is hard. Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears has proven even more difficult than for other teams around the league. Few teams have quite the quarterback carousel the Chicago Bears have. When Chicago traded Kyle Orten to the Broncos last year in exchange for Jay Cutler, lots of fans believed Cutler would be the spark at quarterback this team has been sorely missing throughout most of their recent history. Unfortunately for Chicago fans, Cutler proved to be a turnover machine, not quite up to Jake Delhomme standards last year, but he still hit way too many cornerbacks and safeties between the numbers to be effective.

This year, Cutler is still the man in Chicago, but who will be the second-string quarterback is another matter. Back-up quarterback Caleb Heine sprained his shoulder in the preseason game against San Diego and will not be ready to play again until the regular season starts. This left only Cutler and rookie quarterback Dan LeFevour in camp and healthy enough to practice and play.

Chicago approached Todd Collins to help add some experienced depth to the position, but Collins turned down the Bears. Collins wanted a bit of a signing bonus to help keep the Chicago QB carousel spinning, but the Bears only offered a veteran minimum contract. Collins wasn't the first quarterback to turn down the Bears. Retired Trent Green said no to them (and with his consussion history starting behind a struggling offensive line that has to play Minnesota and Green Bay twice would not have been a good decision) as well as Damon Huard.

Unable to find experienced veteran back-ups willing to sign on with them, Chicago signed journeyman quarterback Matt Gutierrez late last week to a one-year deal. Gutierrez has great accuracy. Since signing with New England in 2007, he has not thrown an incomplete pass in the NFL, completing a solid two out of two passes for 18 yards and no touchdowns. The Bears need a quarterback able to hit their receivers consistently instead of opposing players if they ever hope to challenge either the Minnesota Vikings or the Green Bay Packers for the division title.

Until they make the playoffs and are able to go into an offseason without questions surrounding the quarterback position, the carousel will continue to spin in Chicago.

Detroit Lions



When you've only managed to win nine games during the past three seasons, including an NFL record 0-16 run in 2008, it is hard to find something to be positive about. The long-time NFC North cellar dwellers have had little to smile about while the league has celebrated the Minnesota Vikings and their quarterback drama, the Green Bay Packers emergence as an elite team and even the Chicago Bears and their "will they be good or won't they" discussions.

For Detroit, the answer has recently been "they won't" and the Lions have done precious little to deny the arguments against them. 2010 shapes up as another difficult year for the Lions. Not only do they have six division games against strong opponents who love to kick them when they are down, they also have to play four games against the AFC East, another strong division. In those ten games, the Lions will be lucky to win two, despite the improvements to their defense and the increasing maturity of Mathew Stafford at quarterback.

The remaining six games of their schedule don't get any easier as they are matched up against the NFC East. Though not as strong as it has been in recent years, all the teams in the NFC East will give the Lions fits. Detroit rounds out their schedule with games against recent powerhouses St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Finally a bit of a breather for them.

All signs point to another dismal year in Detroit. But, hey, at least their uniforms look nice and they don't have to play outside when another bitter, Michigan winter hits town.


Check back later today for a recap of the Sunday Night Game and the results of the sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers...

Sunday Night Football ~ Prediction and Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups

For some Friday fun, let's celebrate Brett Favre's return to football by challenging the Vikings to win their Creative Misfortune Sunday Night Football Fantasy matchup (preaseason style) against the San Francisco 49ers.

As with the example Hall of Fame Game fantasy matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Cincinnati Bengals, the starting rosters for this Sunday's game will be chosen based on the players most likely to see some decent playing time. Next week, Creative Misfortune predictions and fantasy matchup lineups will be set for all games to be played, to give you a taste of what to expect throughout the regular season. Since most NFL teams give their starters significant playing time in the third preseason game, at least the first half and into the third quarter, the predictions will not be for who will win the game outright, but for who will have the halftime lead.

Sunday Night Football - Preseason Week 2 - Game Prediction:

	Minnesota Vikings		24
	San Francisco 49ers		20

Sunday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups*
*Note: Again for this week’s sample Creative Misfortune Fantasy Matchup, only the players likely to play at least one quarter or more will be chosen to compete.

Minnesota Vikings	pts				pts	San Francisco 49ers
Sage Rosenfels	0		QB		0	David Carr
Toby Gerhart	0		RB1		0	Anthony Dixon
Darius Reynaud	0		RB2		0	Michael Robinson
Logan Payne	0		WR1		0	Jason Hill
Marko Mitchell	0		WR2		0	Kevin Jurovich
Greg Lewis	0		WR3		0	Dominique Ziegler
Garrett Mills	0		TE		0	Nate Byham
Ryan Longwell	0		K		0	Shane Andrus
Minnesota Vikings	0		DEF		0	San Francisco 49ers
Total	0		^^^		0	Total

Next week, the Letters of Misfortune make their final rounds with visits to the NFC's North and South divisions. Plus, the Sunday Night Football game recap and the final score of this week's Creative Misfortune fantasy matchup...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC West, Part II

Seattle Seahawks



If you had to sum up the offseason for Seattle in one word, that word would be "change". Almost everything about the Seahawks has changed in some form or another since they finished the 2009 campaign a below-average 5-11 team. Coach Carroll, abandoning the sinking ship of USC before all the allegations hit the fan, represents the biggest change in Seattle. Looking to improve his second time around the NFL, he brings rejuvenated vigor to the coaching staff and hope for the fans.

Since arriving in January, Coach Carroll has implemented well over 100 personnel moves designed to shake-up a roster unable to get above the .500 mark since 2007. New players have arrived through trades, the draft, waiver claims, free agent signings and re-signings. Aside from the player movement, a new offensive coordinator has been added and a more aggressive approach is being installed for the defense. Despite all the changes, the core players for Seattle will remain the same on both sides of the ball.

Seattle looked solid, if not spectacular, as they adjusted to their new coach, his philosophy and each other during their opening preseason victory over Tennessee. They still have three preseason games to get the kinks worked out before San Francisco comes to town to open the regular season. With the NFC West wide open for the taking, a victory against the 49ers will vault Seattle into contender status and make the race in the West a three-team battle. Winnable games against Denver and St. Louis early should have this team heading into their bye week at least 2-2, if not 3-1, if they can surprise either San Francisco or San Diego when they journey to Qwest Field.

A fast start will do wonders for a team that has changed so much during the offseason. If they stumble, doubt will set in faster than Seattle cut Lendale White, and without belief in Carroll’s system, this team has no shot to pull itself out of the doldrums of the past few seasons. They will still be better than St. Louis, but being better than the Rams isn’t saying much.

St. Louis Rams



Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Bradford. It’s all fun and games until the Williams Wall smashes into you. The number one overall pick in the 2010 draft, Sam Bradford, finds himself at the center of St. Louis’ rebuilding efforts. Like all former #1 overall picks, he has the potential to steer the Rams away from the disastrous losses they have experienced over the last few seasons, but even an experienced, proven quarterback would have a hard time getting St. Louis to even four wins in 2010. The Rams once again find themselves in the bottom of the NFC barrel. Even Detroit can claim more potential this season than St. Louis, and they went an NFL record 0-for-16 in 2008 and only managed a pair of wins in 2009.

The Vikings buried the Rams in their opening preseason game. Most of the Vikings starters left after the first handful of plays and still the Rams were outgained in yardage, 414-150. Gaining a total of 150 yards in any game, let alone a preseason game, is a recipe for disaster. Add one lost fumble and six sacks to the paltry offense (no interceptions a plus!) and you can easily understand why St. Louis has only managed a 6-42 record over the last three seasons. By comparison, Detroit, including their 0-16 campaign of 2008, has gone 9-39 during the same three year stretch.

I see little changing for St. Louis this season. At best, if Bradford truly emerges as a superstar and follows in the footsteps of the recent rookie success of Sanchez, Ryan and Flacco, the Rams will manage six wins. At worst, they will be lucky to get three wins. Even the other cellar-dwellers on their schedule – Oakland, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Kansas City (the only one of the four making a trip to the Edward Jones Dome) - will prove to be difficult matchups for this downtrodden franchise.

The Rams are rebuilding. Unfortunately, it will be a long and tumultuous road to recovery.


Tomorrow, another Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football preseason matchup...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC West, Part I

Arizona Cardinals



I was very sad to hear last spring that Kurt Warner had in fact decided to retire. Never has there been a player so gracious in defeat, so humble in victory and so thankful for the opportunities he was given. He made the most of his second chances in the NFL and when concussions dimmed the prospects of his continued success, a trip to the desert for one last opportunity proved he still had what it took to play. Few quarterbacks have taken two different teams to the Super Bowl. Fewer quarterbacks still have ever been so down and out – literally out of the league bagging groceries for a living – as Kurt Warner and managed to come back into prominence. Even in retirement, he has played no media games, as other superstar quarterbacks are wont to do. He said he would retire and he did. What a novel idea.

Warner’s retirement puts the focus of the Cardinals offense back squarely on Matt Leinert. The starting job is his to lose. Though the Cardinals seem to have faith in his ability to step in and fill the void left by Warner, they still signed Derek Anderson during the offseason to back-up and even challenge Leinert for playing time. The two quarterbacks are familiar with each other, having met while attending high school all-star camps back when they were 17. While in college, Leinert’s USC Trojans squared off against Anderson’s Oregon State Beavers in 2004 and USC came away with a 28-20 victory.

Both quarterbacks were less than perfect in their preseason opener against the Texans. Leinert threw the ball accurately, connecting on 6 of 7 passes for 49 yards, but was sacked multiple times and fumbled a handoff. Anderson managed to throw a TD pass, but also hit Texan defensive backs with two passes and hurt his chances to put more pressure on the coaching staff to move him up to the starting role.

For now, by default, Leinert remains the guy in Arizona. The entire first-team offense struggled against the Texans, so it’s still too early to blame Leinert directly. With the competition in camp heating up as the regular season approaches, he’ll have to distance himself from Anderson if he ever wants to be anything more in the NFL than a footnote in Kurt Warner’s bio.

San Francisco 49ers



A season full of promise, potential and opportunity awaits the boys from the Bay area. Coach Singletary and his assistants, among them Tom Rathman, a longtime 49er fullback, are preaching toughness to their players. Rathman has built successful running games everywhere he has coached and Singletary, anything but a finesse coach, will gladly pound the ball down opposing teams’ throats if he has the chance.

With the sudden retirement of backup running back Glen Coffee the 49ers have brought in aging Philadelphia star Brian Westbrook to add depth to their corps of runners. Though concussions and a string of other injuries have hampered Westbrook’s effectiveness in recent years, he should still be a solid contributor to the 49ers offense.

The 49ers ran away with a 37-17 victory in their preseason opener against the Colts once Peyton Manning took a seat after putting the Colts up 10-0 early on. However, the victory for the 49ers was anything but a solid outing. Alex Smith managed to only get the offense two first downs and completed a miserable 3-of-9 passes. His backup, David Carr, proved to be more accurate, hitting 9-of-11 passes against the Colts’ backups, but was sacked three times and chased around the pocket quite a bit.

The NFC West is ripe for the taking this season. There is no one team that stands out as the de facto division champion as Arizona has in years past. San Francisco, following the retirement of Warner, has nudged ahead of the other teams in the division and should be the champion by the end of the season. Despite their early difficulties against the Colts, the 49ers played physically and forced Indianapolis into numerous mistakes. All good signs for a team that is still very raw and developing.

The 49ers are scheduled to play an interesting combination of games their first four weeks. Three of them will be on the road (at Seattle, at Kansas City and at Atlanta) and one game will be at home against New Orleans. If the 49ers are going to take control of the division this year they need to start the season right with a victory at Seattle followed by a solid game against New Orleans. By week 5 we’ll have a pretty good idea where the 49ers rank in the NFL.

Once the regular season starts, teams won’t be benching their star quarterbacks. If the first quarter against the Colts was any indication, this team is not yet ready to reclaim their place among the elites in the league.


Tomorrow, letters to the Seattle Seahawks and the St. Louis Rams…

He's Back!!!

SHOCKING, TOTALLY UNEXPECTED NEWS!!!

Brett Favre has returned to the Minnesota Vikings!

Well, we're happy for him.

Didn't the Vikings just break training camp late last week? Really makes you wonder about the oh-so-convenient timing of his return. Like I said before, his ankle would feel better once training camp for the Vikings ended.

I love that the Vikings sent his three amigos down there to bring him back to Minneapolis, as if the entire drama wasn't planned out weeks before.

Oh well, Sage. It was a good run while it lasted. At least they allowed you to showcase your talent last Saturday night to give you added trade value this coming week.

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part II

Philadelphia Eagles



Ah, Philadelphia. The city of brotherly love and home to a football team I despise more than almost every other team in the NFL. My ideal season would end with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing with a 2-14 record. Despite my dislike of this team, I have a healthy respect for them. For years, the games between Philadelphia and Dallas have been physical, hard-fought clashes that have determined sovereignty in the NFC East. Even when there is no division title on the line, the rivalry between them makes any victory worth celebrating. If Dallas finishes 3-13, at least one of their victories better be against the Eagles.

The Eagles have been impressive over the past decade – pretty much the Atlanta Braves of the NFL. Almost always in the playoffs, constantly in the championship mix, but never quite able to take that final step and win the championship or find consistent success in the postseason.

Following an offseason of change, I expect Philadelphia to falter this year. You can’t trade away a perennial all-pro quarterback, still quite able to be successful on the gridiron, and not stumble a little bit in the adjustment. Philadelphia deserves praise on the trade of McNabb to the Redskins. They showed they had the courage to do what Green Bay was afraid to do – trade a superstar quarterback to a division rival. Now you have two games this season to prove your decision was worthwhile.

The quarterbacks left after the McNabb trade are quite capable of steering the Eagles to a winning season, if they stay true to their abilities and make the most of the offensive talent already in place. Kolb has proven he can play in the NFL. He now needs to prove he can play at a high level for 16+ games a season. Vick, in the final year of his two-year contract, is out to vindicate the Eagle’s decision to bring him on board and needs to be successful this year in order to have a shot in the league next year. He needs to remember how to make the spectacular plays without making costly errors in the effort. And rookie Mike Kafka, well, he’s just lucky to be here and should embrace his opportunity to learn without any pressure.

This season, all eyes will be on Kolb and on his former counterpart, now playing in Washington. The Eagles are a better team than the Redskins. If Philadelphia finishes behind them in the standings, all fingers will point to management’s decision to cut ties with their star quarterback and hand the keys of the franchise over to a capable, if not yet proven, player.

Washington Redskins



The Redskins. Old friends of the Dallas Cowboys. If my ideal season ends with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing 2-14, guess where they get those two victories? That’s right, over The Hogs or, more recently, The Piglets. As for Washington, well, you’d go 0-16 if I had my way.

Talk about a franchise in near total disarray. You trade with one of your bitter division rivals for their superstar quarterback during the offseason, hire a new coach with a proven Super Bowl track record (at least when Elway was on the field), and the most news about your team during training camp is that one of your disgruntled, underachieving defensive lineman can’t pass a conditioning test. And this was the story of the NFL until a little known quarterback in Mississippi allegedly sent a text message neither confirming nor denying his decision that he may or may not not think about returning to play another season.

For years you have been the doormats of the NFC East and I have loved it. I see little changing this year. Yes, you have a new quarterback, but how much does McNabb have in the tank when the running game in Washington has struggled with injuries of late and the receiving corps is half what he was used to in Philadelphia. Yes, you have a new coach with Super Bowl championships on his resume, but you’ve had that before over the last decade and how’d those seasons turn out for you?

As long as your owner continues to take such a pro-active role, you will continue to struggle. Jerry Jones has created his share of problems in Dallas over the years, but at least the team he has built is talented enough to overcome his meddling. Dan Snyder is a few years and a leisure suit away from becoming the Al Davis of the east coast. And that, my friends, would be a downward slide truly worth celebrating.


Tomorrow, letters to the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers...

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part I

Dallas Cowboys



Pressure? What are you talking about? There is no pressure on my favorite team to perform at a high level this season. That's crazy talk!

Before we continue this Letter of Misfortune, let me be perfectly clear. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are my favorite team, but not for the reasons you may think. I am not a fan of theirs because of the five Super Bowls they have won (though that doesn’t hurt my loyalty one bit). I cheer for them because of the two Super Bowls they lost in the 70’s to the Pittsburgh Steelers. My dad was a huge Steelers fan when I was growing up and when I learned Dallas was a big rival of Pittsburgh, I became a Cowboys fan just to annoy him. Since then, I have followed the ‘Boys through thick (three Super Bowl championships in the early 90’s) and thin (their dreadful 1-15 season Aikman’s rookie year, but hey, at least they beat Washington).

But I assure you I am not a “homer” fan for the Cowboys. They can do wrong, sometimes as much, if not more, than they do right. I laughed last year when Brandon Marshall weaved through half the Cowboys team on his way to a long touchdown. I found it hysterical when Sensabaugh had absolutely no idea Sydney Rice caught that pass in the divisional playoffs. Like a true fan, I watch them whether they are winning 35-7 or getting crushed by some fool singing “Pants on the Ground”, 34-3. You have no idea how much I hate that video. This season, you will see me predict Dallas lose games, depending on their matchups. As with every other team that takes to the field on Sundays, I will both celebrate Dallas’ victories and make fun of their mistakes, because Creative Misfortune is a double-edged sword that tolerates no Homers. I love the Simpsons. But enough about me. On with the post…

Pressure? All their monkeys are off their back, right? Dallas won the division last year by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. They won their first playoff game in over a decade by crushing Philadelphia in dramatic fashion. Romo has become a star player. The three-headed running game is among the best in the league. The receiving corps is stacked, even with the near-dead weight of Roy Williams. The offensive line is solid. The defense is strong enough to stonewall the run, skilled enough to defend the pass and mean enough to knock opposing players out. Their kicking game might be a little shaky as they try and convert a kickoff specialist into a true field goal kicker, but this just means more opportunities for Romo and his offense to convert Fourth-and-shorts in opposition territory.

Picked as a favorite to win the Super Bowl by a large number of experts, they better win this year, if no other year. Jerry Jones managed to get Super Bowl XLV to be played in Dallas. Never before has the NFL so aggregiously flirted with home-field advantage in their championship game. Let's just say there was a reason the Super Bowl was played in New Orleans all those years during the Ain't's heyday. Yes, he will make money, regardless of who plays the game, but can you imagine how upset he'll be if the Cowboys are not playing in that game? I mean, all those years he has spent on the sideline learning to be a general manager and a coach would be completely wasted.

Can you imagine somebody other than Dallas playing on behalf of the NFC? Or worse, can you imagine Dallas winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, only to lose the NFC Championship game and not go to the Super Bowl? So can I.

And that’s what scares me.

HOW ‘BOUT DEM COWBOYS!

New York Giants



Didn’t you guys, like, just two years ago, ruin the perfect season of the Patriots? What’s happened since then? Tell me, what?

You became the Super Bowl champions in 2007 by defeating one of the greatest teams in NFL history and have been in a tailspin ever since. In 2008, your record actually improved over your Super Bowl season, but you let the Eagles come to your house and embarrass you in the Divsional playoffs. One-and-done is never good, especially when you have the bye week to prepare and home field advantage. And against the Eagles, no less!

Last season the spiral continued and you fell to an 8-8 record. Not good enough to be good, not bad enough to get better, just kind of blah. Where’s the pride, New York? Where’s the sense of power? You’re not even the best team in New Jersey anymore. You're still better than the Knicks, though, so you have that going for you.

While the younger Manning has matured and is becoming a true NFL quarterback, the rest of your team has aged anything but gracefully. The power running game, a staple of Giants teams of the past, became virtually non-existent in 2009. Injuries and poor play kept you from having a 1,000 yard rusher last year. In 2008 you had two! The last time you failed to get a running back over the 1,000 yard plateau was in 2001, when neither Ron Dayne nor Tiki Barber cracked the 900 yard mark.

As a Cowboys fan, I am all for your struggles, but come on. When you combine the mess in Washington with the quarterback situation in Philadelphia and your own difficulties, the NFC East can no longer be viewed as the powerhouse division in the league.

Stand up, mend your broken bones, and run people over like you’ve done in the past – that was beautiful! But don’t lay down like you did last season… unless Dallas is on the opposite sideline.


Tomorrow, letters to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins...

This Day in Football History - August 13th

On Thursdays throughout the regular season and playoffs, Creative Misfortune’s “This Day in Football History” will post. Below is a preseason sample of this feature detailing interesting events, biographies and stories from NFL history.

*August 13, 1914 - Ward Cuff, who excelled at several positions for the New York Giants from 1937-45, was born in Redwood Falls, Minnesota. Upon Cuff’s death in December 2002, Giants co-owner Wellington Mara said, "We were contemporaries. He came to camp in 1937 as a rookie, and we roomed together from then on in camp and on the road. Those were the days of train rides. He and I and Orville Tuttle and Ed Danowski used to play cards over the course of a season. We'd settle up at the end of the year, and someone might have won $5. I have a lot of fond memories of him. He was a terrific competitor."

Cuff joined the Giants as a fourth-round draft choice from Marquette. He played wingback, fullback, halfback, defensive back and kicker for the Giants. In 90 games over nine seasons, he rushed for 1,766 yards on 330 carries (a 5.3-yard average) and caught 101 passes for 1,477 yards. Cuff scored 18 touchdowns (six rushing, 12 receiving) and made 31 of 70 field goal attempts and 98 of 102 extra point tries. He also had a 12.1-yard punt return average and 13 interceptions.

"He was a top player on offense and defense," Mara said. "He was responsible for the league putting in the rule limiting the height of the kickoff tees. We used to play on grass, and he would build the tee up and kick a tremendously high kickoff. So much so that in a Washington game, which was a big game, our guys were able to get down and score a safety after the Washington kick returner dropped the ball and we tackled him in the end zone.” Click here to read more about Ward Cuff.

*August 13, 1960 – The Buffalo Bills earn their first ever win as a franchise with a 31-14 preseason victory over Denver at Rochester, NY. The Bills finished the 1960 regular season with a 5-8-1 record.

*August 13, 1986 - United States Football League standout Herschel Walker signed to play with the Dallas Cowboys of the National Football League. Truly notable because the one-sided trade of Herschel Walker to Minnesota a few years later paved the way for Dallas’ three Super Bowl championships in the 90’s.

*August 13, 2005 – The Carolina Panthers retire jersey number 51 to honor Sam Mills, an inspirational leader of the Panthers, both as a player and coach. Sam Mills becomes the first Panthers player to have his number retired.

Next week, the Letters of Misfortune head for the NFC...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC South, Part II

Jacksonville Jaguars



If you are the defending Super Bowl champions, like New Orleans, having NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell stop by for a preseason visit is cause for celebration. If you are the Jacksonville Jaguars, however, a team coming off two consecutive losing seasons and one struggling to connect in a meaningful way with their fan base, the commissioner may as well arrive at camp wearing a black robe and toting a scythe.

With talks of relocating an NFL team to Los Angeles, or even London, Jacksonville needs to get their fans interested quickly. The Jaguars had to black-out almost all of their home games last season. Never a good sign, especially in a warm-weather city like Jacksonville where extreme cold and snow are never an issue. Of course, where fans are dedicated to the team, like Green Bay, Chicago and Buffalo, such weather extremes are embraced. This extreme passion demonstrated by fans from other cities makes Jacksonville’s inability to sell-out games even less acceptable.

Commissioner Goodell challenged the Jaguar’s organization and the local community during his visit “to demonstrate their passion for this team and their passion for football.” Not a good sign with so much relocation talk going around. In Minnesota, LA has been bandied around as a possible option if a new stadium deal is not reached soon in the legislature. But unlike in Jacksonville, there is a dedicated fan base in Minnesota and a franchise with an established, if not necessarily distinguished, history. No such history exists in Jacksonville and a new stadium is not part of the equation.

I personally have no desire to see an NFL team in Los Angeles, unless the Raiders move back there, but I wouldn’t wish that on any city.

Jacksonville, the Commissioner has served notice to you. You can try all the tricks in the world to increase fan interest in your games, but there is only one sure-fire cure for their apathy – win early, win big, win often.

Tennessee Titans



The Titans managed to end the 2009 season on a high note despite being destroyed by New England 59-0 and suffering the embarrassment of their long-time coach Jeff Fisher wearing a Peyton Manning jersey at a charity event and joking that he "just wanted to feel like a winner".

Though some chastised Jeff Fisher for his “disrespect” of the Titans, I think his decision triggered a renewed sense of purpose for his beleaguered franchise. At the time of the jersey incident, Tennessee had yet to win a game. They entered their bye week a marvelous 0-6 and had been outscored by the likes of Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New England 127-26 in their previous three games. Collins, one of the surprising heroes of the 2008 season, lost his game completely and needed to be benched. The defense was in total disarray, having not allowed less than 24 points since the opening week against Pittsburgh. Chris Johnson remained the only bright spot on a struggling team.

Motivated after their bye week and inspired by the rejuvenated play of Vince Young, Tennessee finished the season on an 8-2 run, with their only losses coming against San Diego and Indianapolis. As much as Jeff Fisher was ridiculed last year for wearing Manning’s jersey, the ploy ended up being a brilliant move on his part.

The upcoming 2010 season will provide a new set of challenges for the Titans. Division victories will be hard to come by this season. Indianapolis is always strong, Houston is on the rise and Jacksonville is desperate to right their sinking ship. If the Titans struggle early again this year, I doubt any magic, motivational bullets will help them pull out of their tailspin, so Coach Fisher better have the team ready to play as soon as the season starts.


Tomorrow, a preview of the Creative Misfortune feature “This Day in Football History”...

Letters of Misfortune - AFC South, Part I

Houston Texans



When I first opened my brand-new copy of “Madden 2003” back in, funny enough, 2003, I knew the Texans were the team for me. Why not choose to play my favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys, instead? Because the Texans were the newest expansion team in the league, and played the 2002 season like they were an expansion team, going 4-12. In the 2003 Madden game, the Texans, unlike the Dallas Cowboys or any other team, had no history, no losses – only potential. Seizing upon that potential, they became my franchise. David Carr became my franchise quarterback and the NFL became my virtual playground.

Now, seven years later, let’s just say the virtual Texans on my XBOX have far exceeded the abilities of the real Houston franchise. Although the Texans have yet to make the playoffs in real life, my virtual Texans are multiple Super Bowl champions. David Carr is a Hall of Fame quarterback and will not be backing up anybody on a different team anytime soon. Unfortunately, like with all sports video games, the reality of the real franchise can’t compare to the virtual success of my pixelated franchise. But there is hope. There is potential. There are playmakers on the real Houston Texans team this year.

I have never known a team to be named “the sleeper to make the playoffs" for as many years as the Texans have been picked only for them never to make the playoffs. That changes this year. With Schaub on a tear, the defense improving and Andre Johnson’s new contract, the Texans will make the playoffs as a wild-card, finishing second in the AFC South behind Indianapolis. Their running game missed a step in 2009 and will need to re-establish its form in order for Houston to truly make the playoffs, but if there ever was a team due to break through, this is the team.

They are practicing hard, over-practicing in some cases (though it hardly seems possible), and have a fairly easy schedule. Only Indianapolis (I was so happy when Manning retired in my virtual world), Dallas, San Diego and the New York Jets loom as threats for them. Even if they lose those five games (which they won’t), they still have a decent shot to finish 11-5 and finally have the break-out season everybody keeps predicting for them.

When they open the season at home against Indianapolis, Houston can take their first step to achieving their as-of-yet untapped potential.

Indianapolis Colts



You really disappointed me last year, Indianapolis. A solid 14-0 going into your week 16 game against the New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! and leading at halftime, 9-3, you benched Peyton Manning and other key starters, effectively ending your chance at a perfect 19-0 season. I just have two questions for you.

Why?

What reason could you possibly have for not striving for history?

You say you were playing for the Super Bowl victory, not a perfect season. 44 other teams have won the Super Bowl. Of those 44 teams, only one has done so undefeated and they only went 17-0. 19-0 would have been a greater achievement. Heck, 18-1 would have been far nobler of an end to your season, because then you would have failed trying in dramatic fashion.

Bold failure can be forgiven. By losing the Super Bowl to New Orleans after giving up on a perfect season, you will never be forgiven. If you had won the Super Bowl with a 17-2 overall record, so what? You would still have been questioned for your decision to lay down and not go for history.

Nothing can be done about all that now. You have one hope to forget about the nightmare end to what could have been a magical season. You have to win the Super Bowl – and just once won’t cut it, unless you do so by being perfect. You have to win two or three more Super Bowls and finish with at least as many as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

Anything less and you will forever be remembered for “what could have been in 2009.”

You must strive for greatness this year. Don’t settle for just being good enough. Last year you were good enough to win the division, good enough to make the playoffs as a #1 seed, good enough to go to the Super Bowl… but what did good enough get you?

Your road to redemption begins on September 12th at Reliant Stadium. Don't let your fans down again. Play to be perfect.


Tomorrow, letters to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans...