Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 15 (2014)

The 5-8 Saints are still battling for supremacy in the NFC South, while the 5-8 Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention. Almost all systems favor New Orleans to get past Chicago and take sole possession of first place in their division. 

Monday Night Game Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 54
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 5. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.456 - 0.331
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 4. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-82
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Both teams at 5-8, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3


Week 15 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." Conference Championship results will be posted on Wednesday. Who punched their ticket to Fantasy Bowl IV?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 12 (2014)

Almost all systems hit the 70% accuracy mark in week 12 as NFL teams stayed truer to form than most weeks of the season so far.

The Fantasy Projections and the Best Record Wins formulas both picked 11 out of 13 games correctly for an outstanding 84.6% accuracy.

The Vegas Lines system came in third place this week by picking 10 out of 13 games correctly for 76.9% accuracy.

All other systems picked 9 out of 13 games correctly for 69.2% accuracy.

All systems favor the Buffalo Bills to win tonight in their "home" makeup game on the road in Detroit. In the normally scheduled Monday Night game, most systems favor the Ravens to defeat the Saints tonight.


Monday Night Game Predictions:

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4. Bills by 4, Over/Under 39
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Buffalo Bills by 9. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.488 - 0.270
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Buffalo Bills by 11. Buffalo Bills projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-48
     Best Record Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3. Bills better at 5-5
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 50
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 7. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.704 - 0.521
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1. Baltimore Ravens projected to win by a fantasy score of 82-78
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3


Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams punched their ticket to the fantasy fopotball playoffs?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 9 (2014)

First place in the NFC South is up for grabs tonight as the Saints travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers.

The pick systems are divided on who will win tonight's game, with four systems (Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY, Vegas Lines, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) favoring the Saints and three systems (Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY, Best Record Wins, Home Team Wins) favoring the Panthers.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints by 3, Over/Under 49
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.534 - 0.373
     Fantasy Projection Pick: New Orleans Saints by 6. New Orleans Saints projected to win by a fantasy score of 92-76
     Best Record Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3. Panthers better at 3-4-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina Panthers by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 9 slate...

Season Recap - 2013 New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints



Final Record: 11-5 (1-1)
Finished: 2nd Place in the NFC South
2014 Draft Position: 27th

Preseason Ranking: 19

Week 1: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 23-17
    Ranked - 9
    The Saints are off to a fast, strong start after knocking out their division rivals. If they can stay the course, they'll be on their way to the playoffs.

Week 2: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 16-14
    Ranked - 6
    When this defense limits the opposing team to just 14 points - 7, really, because of a pick-6 thrown by Brees - the offense should be able to win the game by more than a last-second field goal.

Week 3: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 31-7
    Ranked - 5
    If the Saints can continue to play defense - something sorely lacking last season - New Orleans should find themselves back in the playoffs come January.

Week 4: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 38-17
    Ranked - 4
    The Saints keep on flying… and now they are playing defense, too.

Week 5: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 26-18
    Ranked - 3
    The only undefeated team left in the NFC, the Saints now have a commanding 4 game lead in their division. The number one overall seed is theirs to lose.

Week 6: Lost at the New England Patriots, 30-27
    Ranked - 5
    The Saints had the Patriots right until the very end, then they let it all slip away.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 5
    Let's see if the Saints learned anything during their bye week after their horrible letdown against the Patriots in week 6.

Week 8: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 35-17
    Ranked - 4
    Aside from a terrible sequence in New England, the Saints could be undefeated and they don't show any signs of slowing down.

Week 9: Lost at the New York Jets, 26-20
    Ranked - 7
    The Saints just can't win on the road against the AFC East.

Week 10: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 49-17
    Ranked - 4
    The scariest part about the Saints' win over Dallas on Sunday night was not that Drew Brees threw for nearly 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was that Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles combined for 244 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.

Week 11: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 23-20
    Ranked - 4
    New Orleans almost has to win in Seattle when they face off in a few weeks if they hope to have any chance of claiming home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Week 12: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 17-13
    Ranked - 3
    The Saints didn't have quite as long to prepare for their epic Monday Night matchup with the Seahawks as Seattle did, but they should come to the Pacific Northwest eager to silence the 12th Man.

Week 13: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 34-7
    Ranked - 5
    The Saints were absolutely manhandled by the Seahawks on Monday night. No other way to say it. They may have enough firepower to make it back to Seattle for the NFC Championship Game, but they could be a double-digit underdog going into that game.

Week 14: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 31-13
    Ranked - 3
    Now that the bad taste of the Seattle loss is behind them, New Orleans needs to play perfect down the stretch if they want any shot at all of achieving home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Week 15: Lost at the St. Louis Rams, 27-16
    Ranked - 5
    If they want the division, they have to beat Carolina this weekend.

Week 16: Lost at the Carolina Panthers, 17-13
    Ranked - 8
    The Saints need a win or a loss by the Cardinals to get into the playoffs… if they win, they can still take the NFC South division and a first-round bye if Carolina also loses.

Week 17: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 42-17
    Ranked - 8
    The Saints have fallen off the NFC pace a bit in recent weeks and now their road to the Super Bowl has to most likely go through Philadelphia, Seattle and Carolina - by no means an easy path. If they can make it to the end, they will have truly earned their place in the championship game.

Wild Card Round: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 26-24
    Ranked - 6
    The Saints played a cold weather game on the road and won. They will have to play absolutely perfect if they hope to walk out of Seattle this week with a win.

Divisional Round: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 23-15

Final Ranking: 6

Tomorrow, the 2013 Carolina Panthers...

Season Recap - 2011 New Orleans Saints

Final Record: 13-3 (1-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC South; Lost in the Divisional Round
2012 Draft Position: 27^th

Preseason Ranking: 2

Week 1: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 42-34
    Ranked - 17
    Stopped just short of victory, the goal line stand by the Packers could very well come back to haunt the Saints when they have to board a plane in late January bound for the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field for a rematch.

Week 2: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 30-13
    Ranked - 10
    New Orleans, so close to knocking off Green Bay, left no doubt that they were better than Chicago with a solid victory before the home fans. Now they need to stay true at home and knock off the Texans this week in order to stay tied for first place with the winner of the Falcons-Buccaneers game.

Week 3: Defeated the Houston Texans, 40-33
    Ranked - 6
    Note to self: All we have to do is stay one point ahead of the other guys and then everything will be fine. Signed, Drew Brees.

Week 4: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 23-10
    Ranked - 6
    Drew Brees finally has the offense clicking and with the defense showing signs of life, the Saints are in perfect position to regain the division title they lost last season.

Week 5: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 30-27
    Ranked - 6
    New Orleans can open up a huge lead in the NFC South if they take out the Bucs on Sunday in Tampa Bay. With all their division foes stung by recent losses, the division is theirs to lose.

Week 6: Lost at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 26-20
    Ranked - 6     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Congratulating Coach Raheem Morris on Tampa Bay's victory following the game]
    Coach Sean Payton: Next time, Raheem, it will take more than my broken leg to save you.

Week 7: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 62-7
    Ranked - 4
    Way to shut down the offense late in the third quarter. No need to subject the stars to unnecessary punishment when the game has already been decided and the stats have been accumulated.

Week 8: Lost at the St. Louis Rams, 31-21
    Ranked - 8
    Even good teams have off days. I'll give the Saints a pass on their loss in St. Louis last week… if they are able to beat the Buccaneers this weekend.

Week 9: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27-16
    Ranked - 7
    The Saints evened their score with the Bucs and now only really have the Falcons to contend with for the division title.

Week 10: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 26-23
    Ranked - 7
    The Saints can rest easy during the bye week now that they have complete control over their own destiny.

Week 11: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 7
    An extra day of rest should have the Saints ready to make a run for the playoffs.

Week 12: Defeated the New York Giants, 49-24
    Ranked - 5
    Brees is on fire and now that all the running backs are healthy, the Saints have added additional versatility to their potent offense.

Week 13: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 31-17
    Ranked - 5
    Until the Saints catch up with the 49ers, Drew Brees has no reason not to keep chasing Dan Marino's passing records.

Week 14: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 22-17
    Ranked - 4
    The 49ers have stumbled and with games remaining against Minnesota, Atlanta and Carolina, New Orleans is primed to steal the NFC's remaining first-round bye.

Week 15: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 42-20
    Ranked - 3
    For my money, the NFC is a two-team race between the Saints and the Packers. On a neutral field, I think the Saints win. Unfortunately it looks like Drew Brees will have to learn to throw the ball in the snow as a date with the Packers in Green Bay looks like the road New Orleans will have to travel to make it to Super Bowl XLVI.

Week 16: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 45-16
    Ranked - 2
    The Saints' record-setting peformance on Monday should make a possible Wild Card rematch with Atlanta very interesting.

Week 17: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 45-17
    Ranked - 2
    The Saints are the only NFC team that can match the Packers in a shoot-out, but they will have to win a couple road games on grass if they hope to return to the Super Bowl.

Wild Card Round: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 45-28
    Ranked - 2
    The high-flying Saints have been perfect at home, but now we get to see what they can do outside, on grass, in front of a hostile crowd.

Divisional Round: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 36-32


Final Ranking: 6

Tomorrow, the 2011 Green Bay Packers...

Thursday Night Football - Prediction and Intro to Prediction Systems

IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!

The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion Green Bay Packers battle the New Orleans Saints on the unfrozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

Green Bay comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. More than a few experts have picked them to repeat, but others (yours truly included) don't think the Packers can go the distance again. However, there is no reason to believe they won't go deep into the postseason before their title defense falls short. The Packers enter the season healthy, which is more than can be said for the way they entered the playoffs last year. An off-season of turmoil will only help them remain one of the elite teams in the NFL.

New Orleans, just a season removed from their own Super Bowl title, also weathered the lockout better than most teams under the leadership of quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints look like a team ready to prove the end of 2010 – an embarrassing loss to a team with a losing record in the playoffs – was just a fluke. Many experts have the Saints playing in the Super Bowl this year (yours truly included). Since the opening game of the 2011 season pits these two NFL elites against one another, the first 60 minutes of football could have a huge impact on where the NFC championship game is played in late January.

Now, on with the predictions! For every NFL game this season I will do my best to predict the game winner. But what fun would it be to just pick games by myself in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against?

Last season proved to be a bit rough on all prediction systems, with no system hitting the coveted 70% accuracy mark for the entire season. Hopefully, things improve in 2011.

To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems:

First, the human systems -

Creative Misfortune's Pick – My pick of who I think will win and the points they will win the game by. Creative Misfortune’s picks are based on a Points-Per-Yard formula I developed that proved to be quite successful in 2009, but fell short of my expectations in 2010. After using this system to predict a third season in 2011, I should have a pretty good idea about how accurate (or not) the Points-Per-Yard formula is.

Scottie V’s Pick – My friend, Scottie V, chimes in with his predicted winners and the points they will win by. Despite being a math major, don’t expect any logical formulas or complex computer models out of this guy. He picks with his heart, and did quite well in 2010.

Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5.5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating or matching the spread). The Over/Under value is also included with each Vegas Lines pick to give you an idea of how high (or low) scoring Vegas thinks the game will be.


Second, the "blind" control systems -

The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Cincinnati or Carolina to beat Green Bay.

Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have point spreads associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions. Teams picked to win by the Best Record Wins system will be expected to win by 3 points.

Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict based on the NFL's default score of 20-17, i.e. Home Team wins by 3.

Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...

Thursday Night Football Score Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. The Packers kick-off their 2011 title defense with a gritty win over another NFC powerhouse.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4. Aaron Rodgers and co take on one of the NFC's best and handle them at home.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Packers by 4.5, Over/Under 47.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3.


Tomorrow, predictions for the Sunday games slated for Week 1 NFL action...

Season Recap - 2010 New Orleans Saints

Final Record: 11-5 (0-1)

Finished: 2^nd Place in the NFC South; Lost in Wild Card Round

2011 Draft Position: 24^th

Preseason Ranking:   3
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

Defending Super Bowl Champions. The Aints no more. On their championship run, Drew Brees and the Saints out-dueled three Hall of Fame quality quarterbacks – Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning – to forever secure their place in NFL history.

New Orleans will try and become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since New England took home the prize for both Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX. The task could prove to be a monumental challenge for the plucky Saints. Teams have only repeated as Super Bowl champions seven times in the 44-year history of the game: Green Bay - I & II, Miami – VII & VIII, Pittsburgh – IX & X, Pittsburgh – XIII & XIV, San Francisco – XXIII & XXIV, Dallas – XXVII & XXVIII, Denver – XXXII & XXXIII and New England – XXXVIII & XXXIX.

Given the above list of repeat champions – Green Bay, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and New England – all are storied franchises and none have experienced the futility New Orleans has experienced in its history. Even teams that have yet to win a Super Bowl have richer winning traditions than New Orleans.

It will not be easy for the Saints to join the elite list of repeat champions. New Orleans faces stiff competition from within the division. Atlanta will challenge them for the title and Carolina could steal a game or two from them as a motivated division rival. Outside their division, they face tough games against Dallas and Minnesota, but should find easier sledding against the AFC North and NFC West teams they match up with in 2010. New Orleans has no reason to lose any of those 8 games, with their most difficult test coming at Baltimore in week 15.

The offense will continue its high-flying, aerial attack in 2010 and the defense will do its part to keep opposing offenses from matching them score for score. Last season the Saints benefited from turnovers and fortunate bounces that went their way, but the defense's ability to swarm the ball should give them more of the same this year.

Only Atlanta stands in the way of a division title for them and only Dallas, Minnesota and Green Bay are strong enough to challenge them for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The schedule sets up nicely for New Orleans to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Now they have to go out and prove 2009 was no fluke and bury the taint of the Aints once and for all.

Week 1: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 14-9

Ranked – 4

Offense sputtered just enough against the Vikings to merit a one spot drop in the rankings.

Week 2: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 25-22

Ranked – 2

That is how defending champions stay strong, weather the storms, and win on the road. Who dat gonna beat dem Saints?

Week 3: Lost to Atlanta Falcons, 27-24

Ranked – 10

A terrible missed field goal in overtime and silly coaching games cost the Saints this division matchup. Unlike last year, New Orleans is looking a bit more mortal every week and the NFC looks like it will be end up being a war of attrition more than a sprint to the finish. The Saints can definitely run the footrace, but can they win the knock-down, drag-out battles they will need to in order to emerge as champions once again?

Week 4: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 16-14

Ranked – 7

Good teams win ugly. Great teams win with style. Time will tell if this team can become the great team they were just one season ago.

Week 5: Lost at Arizona Cardinals, 30-20

Ranked – 10

What in the world? Brees is uncharacteristically terrible in an easily winnable game. New Orleans continues to struggle to find their identity. Could Reggie Bush have been a more tangible part of the offense than people were willing to admit?

Week 6: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-6

Ranked – 9

A road win in a division game is always good, but the Saints will have to defeat a stronger opponent on the road before I am ready to say they are back to their championship form.

Week 7: Lost to Cleveland Browns, 30-17

Ranked – 15

Could Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas really mean so much to this team? Without a running game, Brees so far has been unable to throw with much success against defenses the Saints would have destroyed last season.

Week 8: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-10

Ranked – 11

The foul taste of Cleveland lingers, but a victory over the Steelers helps to cleanse the defending champions'  palate.

Week 9: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-3

Ranked – 8

That's the Saints team we all remember!

Week 10: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 5

The defense has figured it out. Hopefully the offense did some catching up over the bye week.

Week 11: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 34-19

Ranked – 7

The offense is clicking, the defense is wrecking havoc and now a short week gives the Saints an interesting Turkey Day challenge in Dallas as they make their attack run for the playoffs.

Week 12: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 30-27

Ranked – 5

A strong victory against an inspired Dallas team. If Reggie Bush can stop trying to catch footballs with his helmet, this offense will become even more dynamic.

Week 13: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 34-30

Ranked – 4 (ROCKY WEEK!)

           

            The worst thing that happened to you, that can happen to any Super Bowl Champion: you got civilized.

Week 14: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 31-13

Ranked – 4

Three upcoming games against playoff-caliber teams will make or break the Saints' season.

Week 15: Lost at Baltimore Ravens, 30-24

Ranked – 7

Wild Card positioning may suddenly be an issue for the defending champions if the Saints drop a second straight game when they visit the Georgia Dome to face off against the Dirty Birds.

Week 16: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 17-14

Ranked – 3

These are the defending champions everyone remembers. Now they have sown the seeds of doubt in the Falcons should they meet again in Atlanta during the playoffs.

Week 17: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-13

Ranked – 5

The defending champs shouldn't be knocked out of the playoffs by a losing team, but New Orleans has struggled at times this season and will need to stop the little mistakes that have cost them in recent weeks.

Wild Card Game: Lost at Seattle Seahawks, 41-36

Final Rank - 9

Tomorrow, the 2010 Seattle Seahawks…

Thursday Night Football - Recap

New Orleans opened the game firing on all thrusters and then bogged down as the Vikings D stiffened, allowing Minnesota to take a slim 9-7 halftime lead into the locker room. The Saints came out after the break and managed to grab back the lead with their running game. One touchdown by the passing game and one by the running game prove the difference in their home opener. Lucky for Hartley his two missed field goals were not the difference in this one.

Thursday Night Football Prediction Roundup:

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Saints win 14-9)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans dominates the game, but Minnesota scores late to make it interesting.
     Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 45-23. The game is close for the first half, but the Vikes fade down the stretch
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 27-21. New Orleans by 5, Over/Under 48.
     Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans 67% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17

     All systems picked the correct winner, but all expected the score to be higher. Default Home Team Wins and Best Record came closest to getting the score right. No system picked the correct 5 point winning margin.

Thursday Night Football - Creative Misfortune Fantasy Result

Minnesota Vikings	pts				pts	New Orleans Saints
Brett Favre	8		QB		13	Drew Brees
Adrian Peterson	9		RB1		14	Pierre Thomas
Toby Gerhart	0		RB2		4	Reggie Bush
Bernard Berrian	0		WR1		6	Marques Colston
Percy Harvin	1		WR2		3	Robert Meachem
Greg Camarillo	2		WR3		9	Devery Henderson
Visanthe Shiancoe	13		TE		2	Jeremy Shockey
Ryan Longwell	3		K		2	Garrett Hartley
Minnesota Vikings	2		DEF		13	New Orleans Saints
Total	38		>>>		66	Total

Check back later today for all the remaining fantasy lineups for the Week 1 NFL games... 

Thursday Night Football - Prediction and Starting Fantasy Lineups

IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!

The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion New Orleans Saints take on the Minnesota Vikings down in the bayou.

New Orleans comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. Although a lot of experts (yours truly included) don't think the Saints will repeat as Super Bowl champions, there is no reason to believe they won't go deep into the postseason before their title defense falls short. The Saints enter the season healthy, confident and with the complete support of the beleagured New Orleans community. The only blot on their offseason has been the discussions surrounding Reggie Bush's break-up with Kim Kardashian and the possibility of the Heisman committee stripping him of his trophy. Maybe his play will improve once he no longer has the dead-weight of being known as a Heisman trophy winner hanging around his neck.

By contrast, Minnesota, the team destined to lose on a Brett Favre interception in 2009, comes into the 2010 season reeling. As a resident of Minnesota, I can tell you the local fans here are anything but confident for the 2010 campaign. While the Saints come into this game healthy, confident and supported, the Vikings come in injured, uncertain and lacking the support of all but the most die-hard homer fans.

The Favre drama sapped this team and its fan base of cohesiveness going forward. Injuries, particularly to the wide receiving corps, will keep the Vikings' passing game hit-or-miss until Favre gets comfortable with his receivers. The defense should be solid again this year, but is currently deciding how best to use three cornerbacks to defend against teams like New Orleans that tend to throw out a lot of four wide receiver sets.

Coach Childress remains stubborn as ever. By trading away Sage Rosenfels to the New York Giants last week, he has yoked his cart to the future success or failure of Tarvaris Jackson. If Jackson was the answer, why were the Vikings so concerned Favre might actually stay retired? Local sports radio hosts question Jackson's abilities on a daily basis and his preseason showing has done little to change people's opinion of him. When Favre finally does retire next year (here's hoping), Jackson better be the unequivocal starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. I wonder if Childress will really be willing to stand by his man once Favre is no longer an option?

Enough chit chat. On with the predictions! For every NFL game this season I will do my best to predict the game winner. But what fun would it be to just pick games by myself in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against? To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems:

First, the human systems -

Creative Misfortune's Pick – My pick of who I think will win and my predicted score.

Scottie V’s Pick – My friend, Scottie V, chimes in with his predicted winners and scores.

Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating the spread) with the total points scored equal to or 1 point more than the Over/Under value. In this example (Team A by 5, Over/Under 46), the Vegas Lines pick would be Team A 26, Opponent 20 (thus predicting Team A beats the spread by 1 and equals the Over/Under number). Since the lines offered by Vegas tend to be fairly close to actual results, we'll see how accurate this method is for picking games "straight up" over the course of the season. No Vegas Lines picks will results in obscure scores, such as 22-19.


Next, the computer systems -

Accuscore Pick – The Accuscore pick is based on the computer simulations run by Accuscore, a company affiliated with ESPN. Accuscore computers simulate the games 10,000 times to determine who will be the winner of the game. If Team A wins 64% of the 10,000 simulations, they are picked by Accuscore to win with 64% confidence. Since Accuscore only provides their percent chance winner for free (you must pay for their spread numbers and final score projections), I will use their percentage chance of victory to determine a predicted score for the game, based on my own custom formula. Basically, if a team is predicted to win 53%-55% of the simulations, I will predict them to win their game 20-17. A 65% win percentage would result in a predicted score of 24-13. The biggest predicted margin of victory possible would be an Accuscore win % of 100% and a final score prediction of 37-0. In case of a 50%-50% tie, the Home Team will be predicted to win the game 14-13. 

What If Sports SimMatchups – The What If Sports website allows you to simulate upcoming games as many times as you would like with different “offensive playbooks”. To get this computer system's predicted results, I will run 5 simulations for each game (2 with Balanced Offense, 1 with Run Heavy, 1 with Pass Heavy and 1 with West Coast style) then take the average score for each team in those 5 comparisons to get the What If Sports predicted winner and final score projection. Note: Running the What If Sports SimMatchups multiple times will result in a different result almost every time. By comparing 5 different runs, though a mere fraction of a fraction of Accuscore's 10,000+ simulations, we'll see which computer system is more accurate over the course of the season.

And finally, the "blind" control systems -
The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Detroit or St. Louis to beat New Orleans.

Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have scores associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions.

Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict the NFL's default score of 20-17.

Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...

Thursday Night Football Score Prediction:

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans dominates the game, but Minnesota scores late to make it interesting.
     Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 45-23. The game is close for the first half, but the Vikes fade down the stretch
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 27-21. New Orleans by 5, Over/Under 48.
     Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans 67% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 27-23. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. Both records at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17


Thursday Night Football - Starting Creative Misfortune Fantasy Lineups

Minnesota Vikings	pts				pts	New Orleans Saints
Brett Favre	0		QB		0	Drew Brees
Adrian Peterson	0		RB1		0	Pierre Thomas
Toby Gerhart	0		RB2		0	Reggie Bush
Bernard Berrian	0		WR1		0	Marques Colston
Percy Harvin	0		WR2		0	Robert Meachem
Greg Camarillo	0		WR3		0	Devery Henderson
Visanthe Shiancoe	0		TE		0	Jeremy Shockey
Ryan Longwell	0		K		0	Garrett Hartley
Minnesota Vikings	0		DEF		0	New Orleans Saints
Total	0		^^^		0	Total

Tomorrow, recapping the Saints-Vikings game plus predictions and fantasy football starting lineups for the remaining slate of Week 1 NFL games... 

Letters of Misfortune - NFC South, Part II

New Orleans Saints



Defending Super Bowl Champions. The Aints no more. On their championship run, Drew Brees and the Saints out-dueled three Hall of Fame quality quarterbacks – Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning – to forever secure their place in NFL history.

New Orleans will try and become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since New England took home the prize for both Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX. The task could prove to be a monumental challenge for the plucky Saints. Teams have only repeated as Super Bowl champions seven times in the 44-year history of the game: Green Bay - I & II, Miami – VII & VIII, Pittsburgh – IX & X, Pittsburgh – XIII & XIV, San Francisco – XXIII & XXIV, Dallas – XXVII & XXVIII, Denver – XXXII & XXXIII and New England – XXXVIII & XXXIX.

Given the above list of repeat champions – Green Bay, Miami, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and New England – all are storied franchises and none have experienced the futility New Orleans has experienced in its history. Even teams that have yet to win a Super Bowl have richer winning traditions than New Orleans.

It will not be easy for the Saints to join the elite list of repeat champions. New Orleans faces stiff competition from within the division. Atlanta will challenge them for the title and Carolina could steal a game or two from them as a motivated division rival. Outside their division, they face tough games against Dallas and Minnesota, but should find easier sledding against the AFC North and NFC West teams they match up with in 2010. New Orleans has no reason to lose any of those 8 games, with their most difficult test coming at Baltimore in week 15.

The offense will continue its high-flying, aerial attack in 2010 and the defense will do its part to keep opposing offenses from matching them score for score. Last season the Saints benefited from turnovers and fortunate bounces that went their way, but the defense's ability to swarm the ball should give them more of the same this year.

Only Atlanta stands in the way of a division title for them and only Dallas, Minnesota and Green Bay are strong enough to challenge them for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The schedule sets up nicely for New Orleans to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Now they have to go out and prove 2009 was no fluke and bury the taint of the Aints once and for all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers



2009 couldn’t have gone much worse for the Bucs. Had it been 1989, nobody would have thought twice about their continued ineptness, but just a handful of years removed from the dominate defenses of Tony Dungy and the Super Bowl championship under the lead of Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay’s fall from grace is surprising. A team chock full of youth and talent, with little veteran support in key roles, Tampa Bay doesn’t look to end their tailspin of futility anytime soon.

Inexperience and youth lead the team at the quarterback position. No quarterback on the roster has more than three years of experience and all of them combined have only started 13 games in the NFL. Growing pains will be the expected norm for the offense. Not only is experience lacking at quarterback, but the receiving corps is also a hotbed of raw, inexperienced talent. The running game, keyed by Cadillac Williams, shows some signs of life, but will not be much of a factor as Tampa Bay will spend most of the season trying to come back from large deficits.

Realistically, nobody expects any kind of breakout year for Tampa Bay. They might improve on their three wins from a year ago, but six wins seems to be the upper limit of what this team can accomplish unless their opponents completely fall apart and make the mental mistakes the Buccaneers of yesteryear were famous for making. Tampa Bay is playing this year to determine what additional steps will need to be made during the offseason to end their tailspin in 2011.


Check back later today for the first of the Creative Misfortune Preseason Week 3 Halftime Score Predictions featuring St. Louis, New England, Indianapolis and Green Bay...