Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 13 (2014)

Happy Thanksgiving! May your team not play like turkeys today!

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions:

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Lions by 7, Over/Under 47.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Detroit Lions by 7. Detroit Lions projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.521 - 0.356
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Detroit Lions by 6. Detroit Lions projected to win by a fantasy score of 78-61
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 7-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys by 3, Over/Under 55
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.626 - 0.614
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 1. Dallas Cowboys projected to win by a fantasy score of 89-86
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Both teams at 8-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1. 49ers by 1, Over/Under 39.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 5. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.642 - 0.508
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 1. Seattle Seahawks projected to win by a fantasy score of 63-59
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 7-4, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Check back tomorrow morning for predictions of the rest of the NFL's week 13 slate...

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 10 (2014)

All systems performed well in week 10, with the exception of the blind Home Team Wins formula.

Three systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 9 out of 12 games correctly for 75% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Vegas Lines formula, and the Pythagorean Theorem formula.

Three systems came close to the 70% accuracy mark by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula.

The blind Home Team Wins formula finished in sole possession of last place this week, only picking 6 out of 12 games correctly, for a 50% accuracy.

All systems favor the Philadelphia Eagles to win tonight at home by about 9 points.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 6. Eagles by 6, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 13. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.660 - 0.336
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 10. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 6-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3


Week 10 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 2 (2014)

No prediction system managed to hit the 70% accuracy mark in week two. In fact, no system managed to pick better than just picking the home team to win, which is a testament to just how wild and crazy the NFL games can be. 

The systems are divided on who will win the Monday Night Football contest, with four systems favoring the Eagles to win on the road and three systems favoring the Colts to win at home. Either way, should be a great, high-scoring game.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 53.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 19. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.838 - 0.353
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 84-75
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 1-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3


Week 2 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Season Recap - 2013 Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles



Final Record: 10-6 (0-1)
Finished: 1st Place in the NFC East
2014 Draft Position: 22nd

Preseason Ranking: 30

Week 1: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 33-27
    Ranked - 12
    The blur offense certainly slowed down in the second half, but it sure was impressive. Now, as long as it doesn't get Vick killed, the Eagles should be fine.

Week 2: Lost to the San Diego Chargers, 33-30
    Ranked - 20
    The blur offense isn't much fun if your defense can't stop the other team from scoring.

Week 3: Lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 26-16
    Ranked - 20
    So much for that fast-paced, blur offense. The Eagles only rank in the middle of teams when it comes to plays run per game. Their defense has to force more 3-and-outs in order for Kelly's Oregon Eagles to be as successful as they want to be.

Week 4: Lost at the Denver Broncos, 52-20
    Ranked - 27
    Time of possession is a big part of winning in the NFL, especially if your defense cannot keep the other guys from scoring touchdowns.

Week 5: Defeated the New York Giants, 36-21
    Ranked - 22
    Yay, you beat the Giants, but at what cost? I don't think anybody is surprised that Vick got hurt running the Blur Offense… I'm just surprised he didn't make it a bit further into the season before the wear and tear got to him.

Week 6: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-20
    Ranked - 18
    Is Foles better than Vick? Hard to say, but a big NFC East battle against Dallas next weekend will help answer that question.

Week 7: Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 17-3
    Ranked - 21
    The Blur Offense has resulted in injuries to both Vick and Foles. Will either of them finish the season?

Week 8: Lost to the New York Giants, 15-7
    Ranked - 23
    Is there a quarterback on this team that can play the full 60 minutes?

Week 9: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 49-20
    Ranked - 20
    It may still be too early to show Michael Vick the door, but it looks like his days in Philadelphia are truly numbered.

Week 10: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 27-13
    Ranked - 13
    Nick Foles has righted the ship in Philadelphia and now they may just be the team to beat in the weak NFC East.

Week 11: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 24-16
    Ranked - 12
    Foles finally has the Eagles on the right track.

Week 12: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 12
    They fell to second place in the NFC East during the bye week, but they are still very much alive - and may be the team to beat - in the division with only five games remaining.

Week 13: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 24-21
    Ranked - 12
    The Eagles keep pace with the Cowboys, setting the stage for a possible "winner-take-all" matchup with Dallas in Week 17.

Week 14: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 34-20
    Ranked - 9
    It certainly can be fun to play in the snow!

Week 15: Lost at the Minnesota Vikings, 48-30
    Ranked - 14
    Just when you think the Eagles are ready to take that next huge step forward they go into a place like Minnesota and get shellacked by the underwhelming Vikings playing without their superstar.

Week 16: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 54-11
    Ranked - 11
    The playoff picture for the Eagles is very simple - beat the Cowboys to win the NFC East or lose and go home.

Week 17: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 24-22
    Ranked - 10
    Kings of one of the worst divisions in the NFL this year, Chip Kelly now gets a chance to test his offense in the NFL playoffs.

Wild Card Round: Lost to the New Orleans Saints, 26-24

Final Ranking: 11

Tomorrow, the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs...

Season Recap - 2011 Philadelphia Eagles

Final Record: 8-8
Finished: 2^nd Place in the NFC East
2012 Draft Position: 15^th

Preseason Ranking: 6

Week 1: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 31-13
    Ranked - 3
    Not only did the Eagles soundly defeat the Rams, they physically knocked St. Louis around and dominated them throughout most of the game. Michael Vick still has some growing to do as a quarterback, but he shouldn't try to become a pure pocket passer. His mobility keeps defenses wary and with all the explosive tools at his disposal, Philadelphia will only have themselves to blame if they fall short of expectations this season.

Week 2: Lost at the Atlanta Falcons, 35-31
    Ranked - 9
    Beaten, bruised and bloodied. Not quite the homecoming Vick hoped for with his return to Atlanta. Now Philadelphia may be forced to face the Giants without their superstar quarterback. As a team, the Eagles should be strong enough to defeat the Giants, whether or not Vick plays.

Week 3: Lost to the New York Giants, 29-16
    Ranked - 19
    Note to self: A left-handed, running quarterback does not need his right hand to be successful. Signed, Michael Vick.

Week 4: Lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 24-23
    Ranked - 21
    Only one "Dream Team" ever amounted to much and lived up to all expectations placed on them. Philadelphia would do well to distance themselves from the label Vince Young helped the media come up with. The best solution - win more than you lose. Afterall, winning turns even perennial losers into "dream teams." Just ask the Detroit Lions.

Week 5: Lost at the Buffalo Bills, 31-24
    Ranked - 23
    4-1 in the fantasy standings and 1-4 in real life. The Eagles are proving beyond a doubt the only stat that truly matters is the points on the scoreboard. Philadelphia can certainly right the ship, but if they don’t start winning soon, they will be the biggest disappointment in Philadelphia since the Phillies got knocked out of the playoffs in 2011.

Week 6: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 20-13
    Ranked - 21     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Coach Reid, concerned about Vick's propensity for injuries, tries to convince him to stay in the pocket]
    Coach Reid: You're gonna get killed scrambling after your damn fortune and glory!
    Michael Vick: Maybe. But not today.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 20
    Out of the bye week they face the Cowboys. It's still anybody's division in the NFC East and the first Cowboys-Eagles matchup will do little to clear up the division race, unless the Eagles get crushed at home.

Week 8: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 34-7
    Ranked - 14
    As much as I hate to say it, the Eagles may have turned a huge corner with their win over Dallas and could run the table to finish 12-4, if Vick can minimize his turnovers and maximize the big plays this offense is capable of.

Week 9: Lost to the Chicago Bears, 30-24
    Ranked - 16
    The Eagles may be fine in the division, but they better turn it around quick and win the NFC East outright. Tiebreakers will kill them if they have to go the Wild Card route.

Week 10: Lost to the Arizona Cardinals, 21-17
    Ranked - 18
    The dream has become a nightmare for fans in Philly and I can honestly say it does not bother me one bit.

Week 11: Defeated the New York Giants, 17-10
    Ranked - 17
    Too little, too late. The Eagles might just be figuring things out for next year.

Week 12: Lost to the New England Patriots, 38-20
    Ranked - 19
    The Patriots made the Eagles defense look like a JV team. With short rest, will they look any better against a boring Seahawks team?

Week 13: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 31-14
    Ranked - 23
    The Eagles are on absolute life support, but with the recent struggles in Dallas and New York, who knows what will happen the next four weeks.

Week 14: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 26-10
    Ranked - 20
    The playoffs aren’t an option anymore, but a miserable season could be salvaged if the Eagles can run the table to finish an even 8-8.

Week 15: Defeated the New York Jets, 45-19
    Ranked - 20
    An 8-8 division champion in the NFC East? Maybe, but it won’t be the Eagles.

Week 16: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 20-7
    Ranked - 17
    The Eagles have finally started to play together, but it is too late for them to save their season.

Week 17: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 34-10


Final Ranking: 13


Season recaps resume next week with the 2011 New York Jets...

Season Recap - 2010 Philadelphia Eagles

Final Record: 10-6 (0-1)

Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC East; Lost in the Wild Card Round

2011 Draft Position: 23^rd

Preseason Ranking:   16
Preseason Letter of Misfortune:

Ah, Philadelphia. The city of brotherly love and home to a football team I despise more than almost every other team in the NFL. My ideal season would end with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing with a 2-14 record. Despite my dislike of this team, I have a healthy respect for them. For years, the games between Philadelphia and Dallas have been physical, hard-fought clashes that have determined sovereignty in the NFC East. Even when there is no division title on the line, the rivalry between them makes any victory worth celebrating. If Dallas finishes 3-13, at least one of their victories better be against the Eagles.

The Eagles have been impressive over the past decade – pretty much the Atlanta Braves of the NFL. Almost always in the playoffs, constantly in the championship mix, but never quite able to take that final step and win the championship or find consistent success in the postseason.

Following an offseason of change, I expect Philadelphia to falter this year. You can’t trade away a perennial all-pro quarterback, still quite able to be successful on the gridiron, and not stumble a little bit in the adjustment. Philadelphia deserves praise on the trade of McNabb to the Redskins. They showed they had the courage to do what Green Bay was afraid to do – trade a superstar quarterback to a division rival. Now you have two games this season to prove your decision was worthwhile.

The quarterbacks left after the McNabb trade are quite capable of steering the Eagles to a winning season, if they stay true to their abilities and make the most of the offensive talent already in place. Kolb has proven he can play in the NFL. He now needs to prove he can play at a high level for 16+ games a season. Vick, in the final year of his two-year contract, is out to vindicate the Eagle’s decision to bring him on board and needs to be successful this year in order to have a shot in the league next year. He needs to remember how to make the spectacular plays without making costly errors in the effort. And rookie Mike Kafka, well, he’s just lucky to be here and should embrace his opportunity to learn without any pressure.

This season, all eyes will be on Kolb and on his former counterpart, now playing in Washington. The Eagles are a better team than the Redskins. If Philadelphia finishes behind them in the standings, all fingers will point to management’s decision to cut ties with their star quarterback and hand the keys of the franchise over to a capable, if not yet proven, player.

Week 1: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 27-20

Ranked – 22

A loss to Green Bay for the first time in decades and a new quarterback controversy to boot. It would be fun to be a Philadelphia Sports Talk guy this week.

Week 2: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 35-32

Ranked – 15

The defense made the battle with Detroit far more interesting than it needed to be and cost me a fantasy victory by allowing Megatron to score a late touchdown. Way to ruin my weekend, Philadelphia. It's not the first time. I'm sure it won't be the last.

Week 3: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 28-3

Ranked – 11

Maybe Vick is the answer after all, but he has yet to be tested by a strong defensive team. Next week McNabb comes back to town. How will the Philadelphia fans greet him?

Week 4: Lost to Washington Redskins, 17-12

Ranked – 14

Ouch. Injuries and poor time management - the bane of any Andy Reid-led team.

Week 5: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 27-24

Ranked – 8

Kolb or Vick? It doesn't really matter as long as McCoy can run with the ball.

Week 6: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 31-17

Ranked – 6

The high-flying Eagles overwhelm the Falcons en route to one of the best records in the NFC.

Week 7: Lost at Tennessee Titans, 37-19

Ranked – 14

Vick may be the answer for Philadelphia, but the defense can't allow career days to young wide receivers if they hope to stay with the Giants.

Week 8: BYE WEEK

Ranked – 14

Even the extra week off might not be enough for the Eagles to scheme for Peyton Manning. 

Week 9: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 26-24

Ranked – 13

The Eagles defense made Manning look mortal and Vick's scrambling ability once again saved the day.

Week 10: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 59-28

Ranked – 6

Quite an explosive way to move into a tie for first-place in the division. The stretch run will determine if the Vick-led Eagles are truly the best in the NFC.

Week 11: Defeated the New York Giants, 27-17

Ranked – 6

Vick may be the answer at quarterback, but Kolb better be ready to play if Vick keeps scrambling and getting hit. 

Week 12: Lost at Chicago Bears, 31-26

Ranked – 9

Vick is suddenly mortal and Chicago made the Eagles look like chumps, instead of the media-anointed NFC champs they were just a mere two weeks ago.

Week 13: Defeated the Houston Texans, 34-24

Ranked – 9 (ROCKY WEEK!)

[Michael Vick and Andy Reid are watching film from Vick's first few seasons with Atlanta]                   

                   

Coach Reid: Scrambling, run-first quarterbacks, they're the worst. They try to get the big play with their feet. Arm's no damn good. They ought to outlaw run-first quarterbacks!

Michael Vick: Why didn't you tell me that before?

Coach Reid: I didn't want to hurt your feelings.

Week 14: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 30-27

Ranked – 6

The high-flying Eagles are a big-play team, but can they win a knock-down fight with a power running team on the road like they will have to in order to go deep into the playoffs?

Week 15: Defeated the New York Giants, 38-31

Ranked – 3

I have never been a big fan of the Eagles, but you absolutely have to be impressed by their never give up attitude. Teams have been propelled to Super Bowl championships by far less epic wins in the past.

Week 16: Lost to Minnesota Vikings, 24-14

Ranked – 8

Michael Vick lost his bid to be the league's MVP with the sub-par performance of the Eagles on Tuesday. He still will be the Comeback Player of the Year and may do some damage in the post-season, but the Vikings gave the league a beautiful blueprint on how to short-circuit the high-flying Eagles explosive offense.

Week 17: Lost to Dallas Cowboys, 14-13

Ranked – 10

Crawling into the playoffs, beat up and disillusioned, is never a good way to start a Super Bowl run.

Wild Card Game: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 21-16

Final Rank - 11

Season recaps continue next week with the Super Bowl XLIV champion New Orleans Saints…

Letters of Misfortune - NFC East, Part II

Philadelphia Eagles



Ah, Philadelphia. The city of brotherly love and home to a football team I despise more than almost every other team in the NFL. My ideal season would end with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing with a 2-14 record. Despite my dislike of this team, I have a healthy respect for them. For years, the games between Philadelphia and Dallas have been physical, hard-fought clashes that have determined sovereignty in the NFC East. Even when there is no division title on the line, the rivalry between them makes any victory worth celebrating. If Dallas finishes 3-13, at least one of their victories better be against the Eagles.

The Eagles have been impressive over the past decade – pretty much the Atlanta Braves of the NFL. Almost always in the playoffs, constantly in the championship mix, but never quite able to take that final step and win the championship or find consistent success in the postseason.

Following an offseason of change, I expect Philadelphia to falter this year. You can’t trade away a perennial all-pro quarterback, still quite able to be successful on the gridiron, and not stumble a little bit in the adjustment. Philadelphia deserves praise on the trade of McNabb to the Redskins. They showed they had the courage to do what Green Bay was afraid to do – trade a superstar quarterback to a division rival. Now you have two games this season to prove your decision was worthwhile.

The quarterbacks left after the McNabb trade are quite capable of steering the Eagles to a winning season, if they stay true to their abilities and make the most of the offensive talent already in place. Kolb has proven he can play in the NFL. He now needs to prove he can play at a high level for 16+ games a season. Vick, in the final year of his two-year contract, is out to vindicate the Eagle’s decision to bring him on board and needs to be successful this year in order to have a shot in the league next year. He needs to remember how to make the spectacular plays without making costly errors in the effort. And rookie Mike Kafka, well, he’s just lucky to be here and should embrace his opportunity to learn without any pressure.

This season, all eyes will be on Kolb and on his former counterpart, now playing in Washington. The Eagles are a better team than the Redskins. If Philadelphia finishes behind them in the standings, all fingers will point to management’s decision to cut ties with their star quarterback and hand the keys of the franchise over to a capable, if not yet proven, player.

Washington Redskins



The Redskins. Old friends of the Dallas Cowboys. If my ideal season ends with the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl and the Eagles finishing 2-14, guess where they get those two victories? That’s right, over The Hogs or, more recently, The Piglets. As for Washington, well, you’d go 0-16 if I had my way.

Talk about a franchise in near total disarray. You trade with one of your bitter division rivals for their superstar quarterback during the offseason, hire a new coach with a proven Super Bowl track record (at least when Elway was on the field), and the most news about your team during training camp is that one of your disgruntled, underachieving defensive lineman can’t pass a conditioning test. And this was the story of the NFL until a little known quarterback in Mississippi allegedly sent a text message neither confirming nor denying his decision that he may or may not not think about returning to play another season.

For years you have been the doormats of the NFC East and I have loved it. I see little changing this year. Yes, you have a new quarterback, but how much does McNabb have in the tank when the running game in Washington has struggled with injuries of late and the receiving corps is half what he was used to in Philadelphia. Yes, you have a new coach with Super Bowl championships on his resume, but you’ve had that before over the last decade and how’d those seasons turn out for you?

As long as your owner continues to take such a pro-active role, you will continue to struggle. Jerry Jones has created his share of problems in Dallas over the years, but at least the team he has built is talented enough to overcome his meddling. Dan Snyder is a few years and a leisure suit away from becoming the Al Davis of the east coast. And that, my friends, would be a downward slide truly worth celebrating.


Tomorrow, letters to the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers...