Thursday, October 17, 2013

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 6 (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
                    The Jaguars beat the biggest spread in NFL history! At least they have that going for them.

     # 31 - New York Giants (previous: 31)
                    Injuries have now added to New York's woes… They will win some games yet this year, but the work on the 2014 season has already started.

     # 30 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
                    Still winless in Tampa, despite the changes at quarterback. Still far too early to tell if releasing Freeman was a good move on their part.

     # 29 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 30)
                    The Steelers come out of the bye week and notch a solid victory on the road. It's still not too late for them to turn their season around.

     # 28 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 26)
                    Tough week for the Vikings to play a game…



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Washington Redskins (previous: 27)
                    The Redskins had their moments on Sunday night, but they were outclassed by the Cowboys in almost every facet of the game.

     # 26 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 28)
                    Four games out of first place. We'll see if Atlanta remembered how to win games during their time off.

     # 25 - Houston Texans (previous: 23)
                    This team is falling quickly… Wonder what the record is for most consecutive games with a thrown Pick-6 is?

     # 24 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 19)
                    Oakland stayed with the undefeated Chiefs for a little bit, but then were just over matched by their division rivals.

     # 23 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 21)
                    So close to victory, the Bills drop a tough one at home in overtime.

     # 22 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 25)
                    Now that is how Carolina should have played coming out of the bye week last week. You can't tell me Arizona is a far superior team to Minnesota.

     # 21 - New York Jets (previous: 16)
                    Just when you think they have it all figured out, they lose at home in an ugly game.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 24)
                    Looks like the Rams have finally recovered from their losses to the Cowboys and 49ers a few weeks back.

     # 19 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 14)
                    An uncharacteristic fumble by Larry Fitzgerald hurt their chances against the 49ers. Even if he holds onto the ball, though, the 49ers would have dropped the Cardinals back to .500.

     # 18 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 22)
                    Is Foles better than Vick? Hard to say, but a big NFC East battle against Dallas next weekend will help answer that question.

     # 17 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 10)
                    The Browns are still an impressive 3-1 since making the Richardson trade.

     # 16 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 12)
                    The Ravens aren't going to repeat as Super Bowl champions if they keep dropping games at home.

     # 15 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 20)
                    The San Diego Chargers are like a box of chocolates… you just never know what you are going to get from week to week.

     # 14 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 7)
                    A close loss on the road to an NFC powerhouse is nothing to hang your head about. The loss by the Colts helps, too.

     # 13 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 18)
                    The offense seems to have it figured out, but the injuries have devastated the defensive line. Will the no-name Cowboys rise up and make themselves known? First chance comes next weekend when they take on the Eagles and their Blur Offense.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 15)
                    Chasing the Patriots out of the bye week, Miami still is very much alive in the AFC East.

     # 11 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 17)
                    Big wins on the road are always good. The Packers need the wins in the division, though, in order to make it to the playoffs.

     # 10 - Chicago Bears (previous: 11)
                    The Bears nearly let the game against the Giants slip away. You never want to flirt with that late-game Manning magic, but they survived the scare with flying colors.

     # 9 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 13)
                    All alone in first place, the AFC North is theirs to rule for the time being.

     # 8 - Detroit Lions (previous: 9)
                    After dropping a couple games recently, Detroit picks up another win to stay even with the Bears atop the NFC North.

     # 7 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 8)
                    Now the 49ers are playing like they did a year ago, but they always seem to make things a bit more difficult than they need to be.

     # 6 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 4)
                    Tough loss during Luck's debut on Monday Night Football. Wonder what the story angles will be this week when Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos come to town?



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 3)
                    The Saints had the Patriots right until the very end, then they let it all slip away.

     # 4 - New England Patriots (previous: 6)
                    Tom Brady beats Drew Brees for the first time since their college days. Great win by the Patriots, despite continuing to cobble together a receiving corps for Brady to play catch with.

     # 3 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 5)
                    Seattle rebounds from their loss last week with a serviceable win at home.

     # 2 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 2)
                    Can they hold it together and remain undefeated until they face off against the Broncos in week 11? Good news for the Chiefs - they have their bye week in week 10.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    It might be harder for the Broncos to remain undefeated than for Kansas City to remain undefeated until they face off against the Chiefs in week 11, but I have no reason to believe that both teams won't be 9-0 going into that epic divisional matchup.



Week 6 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Tennessee Titans (-7), Cleveland Browns (-7), Arizona Cardinals (-5), New York Jets (-5), Oakland Raiders (-5)

The Biggest Movers - Green Bay Packers (+6), Dallas Cowboys (+5), San Diego Chargers (+5), Cincinnati Bengals (+4), Philadelphia Eagles (+4)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Kansas City Chiefs (2), Washington Redskins (27), New York Giants (31), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 6

 Denver Broncos

Check back later today for Thursday Night Game predictions...

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Week 6 Results (2013) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

Week 6 ended up being pretty tame from a fantasy perspective. No teams won games they lost in real life. No individual performances jumped out. A lot of good play, a lot of bad play, but really just a ho-hum week in the fantasy world.

High score of the week goes to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers, who both scored 100 points and were the only teams to eclipse the century mark.

Low score falls to the New York Jets at 35 points. And despite a couple low scores this week, no team failed to score more fantasy points than the real number of points scored against them. Ho-hum, indeed.

Closest Game of the Week: Green Bay Packers 82, Baltimore Ravens 77. Green Bay prevails in the closest game of the fantasy weekend by slightly more points than they won by in the real game.

Fantasy Stars of the Week: Cam Newton, 30 points; Vernon Davis 30 points. Always nice when somebody other than Peyton Manning or Drew Brees checks in with the highest score of the week.



Week 6 Game Results:

New York Giants at Chicago Bears
     Fantasy Score: Chicago Bears 87, New York Giants 59
     New York's Key Performers: Brandon Jacobs (22), Rueben Randle (13), Eli Manning (7)
     Chicago's Key Performers: Jay Cutler (20), Brandon Marshall (20), Defense (13)

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
     Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 100, Buffalo Bills 71
     Cincinnati's Key Performers: Andy Dalton (24), A.J. Green (16), Marvin Jones (16)
     Buffalo's Key Performers: Thad Lewis (21), Marquise Goodwin (11), Scott Chandler (10)

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
     Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 90, Cleveland Browns 67
     Detroit's Key Performers: Matthew Stafford (23), Joseph Fauria (21), Reggie Bush (18)
     Cleveland's Key Performers: Brandon Weeden (16), Chris Ogbonnaya (14), Josh Gordon (12)

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans
     Fantasy Score: St. Louis Rams 78, Houston Texans 45
     St. Louis' Key Performers: Defense (29), Sam Bradford (16), Greg Zuerlein (9)
     Houston's Key Performers: Arian Foster (19), Andre Johnson (8), Ben Tate (8)

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
     Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 66, Oakland Raiders 45
     Oakland's Key Performers: Denarius Moore (14), Terrelle Pryor (12), Darren McFadden (8)
     Kansas City's Key Performers: Defense (26), Jamaal Charles (24), Alex Smith (7)

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
     Fantasy Score: Carolina Panthers 100, Minnesota Vikings 39
     Carolina's Key Performers: Cam Newton (30), Mike Tolbert (16), Brandon LaFell (16)
     Minnesota's Key Performers: Kyle Rudolph (15), Matt Cassel (9), Adrian Peterson (8)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
     Fantasy Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 80, New York Jets 35
     Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Ben Roethlisberger (15), Shaun Suisham (15), Defense (14)
     New York's Key Performers: Nick Folk (6), Jeff Cumberland (5), Bilal Powell (5)

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
     Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 82, Baltimore Ravens 77
     Green Bay's Key Performers: Jordy Nelson (17), Aaron Rodgers (16), Mason Crosby (15)
     Baltimore's Key Performers: Joe Flacco (19), Dallas Clark (14), Jacoby Jones (10)

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 95, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 68
     Philadelphia's Key Performers: Nick Foles (29), DeSean Jackson (18), Riley Cooper (18)
     Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Vincent Jackson (23), Mike Glennon (18), Timothy Wright (9)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
     Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 87, Jacksonville Jaguars 61
     Jacksonville's Key Performers: Justin Blackmon (19), Maurice Jones-Drew (13), Josh Scobee (9)
     Denver's Key Performers: Knowshon Moreno (28), Peyton Manning (13), Wes Welker (12)

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
     Fantasy Score: Seattle Seahawks 73, Tennessee Titans 40
     Tennessee's Key Performers: Defense (12), Rob Bironas (7), Kendall Wright (6)
     Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (26), Russell Wilson (16), Defense (11)

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
     Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 80, New Orleans Saints 64
     New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (16), Kenny Stills (12), Khiry Robinson (11)
     New England's Key Performers: Stevan Ridley (22), Stephen Gostkowski (14), Tom Brady (13)

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
     Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 89, Arizona Cardinals 70
     Arizona's Key Performers: Carson Palmer (15), Larry Fitzgerald (15), Andre Ellington (14)
     San Francisco's Key Performers: Vernon Davis (30), Colin Kaepernick (15), Phil Dawson (13)

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
     Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 67, Washington Redskins 59
     Washington's Key Performers: Alfred Morris (14), Robert Griffin III (12), Kai Forbath (9)
     Dallas' Key Performers: Defense (14), DeMarco Murray (10), Tony Romo (8)

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
     Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 73, Indianapolis Colts 43
     Indianapolis' Key Performers: Adam Vinatieri (13), Reggie Wayne (8), Andrew Luck (7)
     San Diego's Key Performers: Keenan Allen (16), Nick Novak (15), Philip Rivers (13)

Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings

Monday, October 14, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 6 (2013)

With one game remaining in week 6, the sixth week of predictions showed average results for all systems, except for Creative Misfortune's Overall Points-per-Yard formula and the Vegas Lines formula.

Both the Overall PPY and the Vegas Lines formulas picked 11 out of 14 games correctly over the weekend for an impressive 78.6% accuracy, easily outdoing all other systems this week. 

The Home/Away PPY and Best Record Wins formulas both picked 8 of the 14 games correctly for a very average 57.1% accuracy.

The blind Home Team Wins formula only managed to get 7 of the 14 games picked correctly for a below average 50% accuracy.

The PPY formulas and the blind Best Record Wins formula have the Colts victorious in San Diego, while Vegas and the Home Team Wins formula have the home team winning tonight's contest.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 13
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 14
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 2. Chargers by 2, Over/Under 51
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 4-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3


Week 6 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Friday, October 11, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 6 (2013)

All teams found a bit of prediction gold last night with Chicago's victory over the winless Giants. How well will they do once the rest of the NFL action gets underway on Sunday?

Sunday Game Predictions:

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 8. Bengals by 8, Over/Under 41.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3. Bengals better at 3-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo Bills by 3

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: Detroit Lions by 1. Lions by 1, Over/Under 45
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Both teams at 3-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 8
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 9. Texans by 8.5, Over/Under 43
     Best Record Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3. Both teams at 2-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Houston Texans by 3

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 16
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 11
     Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 10. Chiefs by 9.5, Over/Under 40.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 5-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 6
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 1. Vikings by 1, Over/Under 44
     Best Record Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3. Both teams at 1-3, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota Vikings by 3

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New York Jets by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Jets by 6
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 2. Jets by 2, Over/Under 41
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets better at 3-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 11
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 2. Packers by 2, Over/Under 48.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3. Ravens better at 3-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 2. Eagles by 2, Over/Under 46
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 2-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 21
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 20
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 27. Broncos by 26.5, Over/Under 53
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 5-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 13
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 15. Seahawks by 14.5, Over/Under 40.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 4-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 4
     Vegas Lines Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots by 2.5, Over/Under 50.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 5-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 12. 49ers by 11.5, Over/Under 41.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 3-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 9
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 7
     Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 6. Cowboys by 5.5, Over/Under 52.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3. Cowboys better at 2-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 6 (2013)

After a huge week last week, can Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula maintain its high level of accuracy in week 6 or will another system rise up to take its place? The week kicks off with all systems agreeing the New York Giants are terrible and that tonight's game will go Chicago's way.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

New York Giants at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 11
     Vegas Lines Pick: Chicago Bears by 8. Bears by 7.5, Over/Under 47.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3. Bears better at 3-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3

Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 6 matchups...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 5 (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
                    Somehow I don't think a trip to Denver is what Jacksonville needs right now. Are they on pace to go 0-16? I don't know, but I'd take the 0-16 Lions from a few years back over these guys, give you the points and still feel confident that the Jaguars would remain defeated.

     # 31 - New York Giants (previous: 31)
                    I suppose the Giants could turn it around and finish the season 11-5, but really? That's not going to happen. 8-8 won't even happen, despite this team's crazy ability to get streaky and win games at the right time.

     # 30 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 30)
                    Did they get healthy during their bye week? Pittsburgh fans can only hope. A road trip to New York to face off against the bruising Jets will show whether or not the Steelers can save their season.

     # 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
                    Unlike Cleveland, Tampa Bay is clearly scrapping this season and trying to get the pieces in place for next year.

     # 28 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 23)
                    For all intents and purposes, the Falcons' season is over. Four games behind the Saints already in the division, they better hope they can find some magic coming out of their bye week.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Washington Redskins (previous: 25)
                    RGIII should be a little more healed after the bye, but a Sunday night game against Dallas will test how rusty he still is.

     # 26 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 24)
                    Josh Freeman is in town! If Freeman starts this weekend, expect a whole lot of AP… not that you would expect anything else from the Vikings at this point, regardless of which no-name player they started at QB.

     # 25 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 21)
                    Not a good showing coming out of the bye week. Six points against the Cardinals? Looks like the Carolina offense better head back to the drawing board.

     # 24 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 28)
                    The Rams still need a lot of improvement, but after being manhandled by the Cowboys and 49ers, being able to kick the Jaguars had to feel pretty good.

     # 23 - Houston Texans (previous: 16)
                    So much for a Texans-Falcons Super Bowl… Houston is all but cooked and if they can't figure out their quarterback issues, they will definitely miss their short window of opportunity to be something more than an underachieving team.

     # 22 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 27)
                    Yay, you beat the Giants, but at what cost? I don't think anybody is surprised that Vick got hurt running the Blur Offense… I'm just surprised he didn't make it a bit further into the season before the wear and tear got to him.

     # 21 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 13)
                    Buffalo missed out on the Freeman sweepstakes. The season is not lost, but as the worst of the AFC East teams, they certainly have an uphill battle to fight.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 11)
                    The Chargers couldn't beat the Raiders last week, but watch them go out and beat the Colts this week. Hey, it could happen.

     # 19 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 26)
                    The Raiders might have something with Terrelle Pryor- a mobile quarterback with a willingness to throw the ball deep. Al Davis would be proud.

     # 18 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 12)
                    So close, but a late, back-breaking turnover once again ruins their chances to do something truly great. Even at 2-3, the Cowboys are still the best team in the NFC East. They have that going for them.

     # 17 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 22)
                    Green Bay still has a way to go, but a solid victory over the Lions has them moving in the right direction.

     # 16 - New York Jets (previous: 20)
                    Well that was certainly an impressive win on Monday Night over the Falcons. At least we know one thing for certain about the Jets - we've seen the last of Mark Sanchez.

     # 15 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 10)
                    Two straight losses have the Dolphins reeling a bit, but they are still very much alive in a competitive division. They could easily come out of the bye week in first place if the Patriots and Jets both stumble.

     # 14 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 19)
                    The offense is still struggling to find its rhythm, but the defense played lights out against the Panthers.

     # 13 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 17)
                    A big win at home over the Patriots may be just the thing this Bengals team needs to propel them on to greatness.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 14)
                    The Ravens are finding ways to win, but they can't keep this up forever and are still going to be hard pressed to make the playoffs.

     # 11 - Chicago Bears (previous: 9)
                    Once unstoppable, the Bears have been stopped twice in a row. It's still early, but a few more losses and their season will be gone.

     # 10 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 15)
                    Yes, we get it. You're not giving up on the season.

     # 9 - Detroit Lions (previous: 8)
                    No Megatron, big problems. The Lions were crushed by the Packers in Wisconsin… well if you can call a barrage of field goals getting crushed. Detroit has to find a way to win without Calvin Johnson if this is to be their year.

     # 8 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 18)
                    Looks like the 49ers have moved past their early season woes.

     # 7 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 7)
                    The Titans came up short in a battle with the undefeated Chiefs, but they are still playing surprisingly good football.

     # 6 - New England Patriots (previous: 5)
                    So much for keeping your TD streak alive, Brady. The schedule doesn't get any easier with the Saints coming to town.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    A tough road loss to the Colts has the Seahawks flying wounded, but they are still a game up in the division and still one of the best teams in the NFC.

     # 4 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 6)
                    Could a Manning-Luck playoff showdown be on the horizon? Can't imagine any storylines to be found for that game.

     # 3 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 4)
                    The only undefeated team left in the NFC, the Saints now have a commanding 4 game lead in their division. The number one overall seed is theirs to lose.

     # 2 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 3)
                    The Chiefs just keep on winning by playing solid, mistake-free football. They may not be as flashy or dynamic as the Broncos, but they are playing without expectation and have nothing to lose.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    Denver scoring 51 points on the road is no surprise… their defense giving up 48 points, however, is a bit of a concern. As the weather grows colder, the Broncos will need their defense to step up if they don't want to stumble late in the season.



Week 5 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - San Diego Chargers (-9), Buffalo Bills (-8), Houston Texans (-7), Dallas Cowboys (-6), Miami Dolphins (-5)

The Biggest Movers - San Francisco 49ers (+10), Oakland Raiders (+7), Cleveland Browns (+5), Arizona Cardinals (+5), Green Bay Packers (+5)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Tennessee Titans (7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29), Pittsburgh Steelers (30), New York Giants (31), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 5

 Denver Broncos

Check back later today for Thursday Night Game predictions...

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Week 5 Results (2013) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

In week 5, there were a few wild games that shook up the fantasy standings a bit. Three teams won fantasy games this week they lost in real life. The Chicago Bears ended the Saints' undefeated season with an 82-81 win... The Atlanta Falcons, losers on Monday Night, defeated the New York Jets 70-69 and the Dallas Cowboys took out the Denver Broncos in the fantasy world on the strength of Tony Romo's 500+ yards passing and 5 TDs. After these fantasy upsets, only the Kansas City Chiefs remain a perfect 5-0 in this alternate world.

High score of the week goes to the Dallas Cowboys, who scored 131 points against the Denver Broncos, whose 128 points gave them the second-most points this week.

Low score falls to the Houston Texans at 24 points. Houston was the only team this week that failed to score more fantasy points than the real number of points scored against them (34 by the San Francisco 49ers).

Closest Game of the Week: Chicago Bears 82, New Orleans Saints 81. An extremely close fantasy game goes in favor of the Da Bears.

Fantasy Star of the Week: Tony Romo, 40 points. If only he didn't throw that last interception with two minutes to go, he could have had even more points this week.


Week 5 Game Results:

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
     Fantasy Score: Cleveland Browns 76, Buffalo Bills 58
     Buffalo's Key Performers: Fred Jackson (21), CJ Spiller (12), Dan Carpenter (8)
     Cleveland's Key Performers: Defense (17), Billy Cundiff (14), Josh Gordan (14)

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
     Fantasy Score: Chicago Bears 82, New Orleans Saints 81
     New Orleans' Key Performers: Pierre Thomas (20), Drew Brees (19), Garrett Hartley (16)
     Chicago's Key Performers: Alshon Jeffrey (27), Jay Cutler (22), Matt Forte (11)

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
     Fantasy Score: Cincinnati Bengals 64, New England Patriots 45
     New England's Key Performers: Defense (12), Stephen Gostkowski (7), Brandon Bolden (6)
     Cincinnati's Key Performers: Defense (15), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (12), Mike Nugent (9)

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
     Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 86, Seattle Seahawks 85
     Seattle's Key Performers: Russell Wilson (22), Steven Hauschka (16), Golden Tate (12)
     Indianapolis' Key Performers: TY Hilton (26), Andrew Luck (17), Defense (10)

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
     Fantasy Score: Green Bay Packers 83, Detroit Lions 48
     Detroit's Key Performers: Matthew Stafford (14), Kris Durham (9), Reggie Bush (6)
     Green Bay's Key Performers: Mason Crosby (20), James Jones (18), Aaron Rodgers (14)

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
     Fantasy Score: Baltimore Ravens 78, Miami Dolphins 74
     Baltimore's Key Performers: Ray Rice (19), Justin Tucker (18), Torrey Smith (12)
     Miami's Key Performers: Ryan Tannehill (16), Charles Clay (11), Caleb Sturgis (11)

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
     Fantasy Score: Philadelphia Eagles 87, New York Giants 62
     Philadelphia's Key Performers: Alex Henery (20), DeSean Jackson (19), LeSean McCoy (14)
     New York's Key Performers: Rueben Randle (21), Eli Manning (15), Hakeem Nicks (14)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
     Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 74, Tennessee Titans 59
     Kansas City's Key Performers: Jamaal Charles (17), Defense (16), Ryan Succop (15)
     Tennessee's Key Performers: Ryan Fitzpatrick (20), Chris Johnson (13), Kendall Wright (7)

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams
     Fantasy Score: St. Louis Rams 87, Jacksonville Jaguars 56
     Jacksonville's Key Performers: Justin Blackmon (19), Cecil Shorts (13), Josh Scobee (9)
     St. Louis' Key Performers: Sam Bradford (20), Austin Pettis (16), Defense (14)

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
     Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 75, Carolina Panthers 54
     Carolina's Key Performers: Graham Gano (8), Ted Ginn (7), Greg Olsen (7)
     Arizona's Key Performers: Defense (24), Jay Feely (11), Rashard Mendenhall (10)

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
     Fantasy Score: Dallas Cowboys 131, Denver Broncos 128
     Denver's Key Performers: Peyton Manning (36), Julius Thomas (24), Knowshon Moreno (20)
     Dallas' Key Performers: Tony Romo (40), Dez Bryant (24), Terrance Williams (23)

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
     Fantasy Score: Oakland Raiders 88, San Diego Chargers 73
     San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (18), Keenan Allen (17), Vincent Brown (11)
     Oakland's Key Performers: Defense (21), Terrelle Pryor (19), Denarius Moore (14)

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
     Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 79, Houston Texans 24
     Houston's Key Performers: Arian Foster (11), Owen Daniels (6), Andre Johnson (3)
     San Francisco's Key Performers: Defense (22), Frank Gore (14), Vernon Davis (14)

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons
     Fantasy Score: Atlanta Falcons 70, New York Jets 69
     New York's Key Performers: Geno Smith (21), Nick Folk (13), Jeff Cumberland (13)
     Atlanta's Key Performers: Matt Ryan (18), Jacquizz Rodgers (17), Tony Gonzalez (9)

Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings

Monday, October 7, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 5 (2013)

With one game remaining in week 5, the fifth week of predictions showed average results for all systems, except for Creative Misfortune's Home/Away Points-per-Yard formula, which really came into its own this week.

The Home/Away PPY formula picked 11 out of 13 games correctly over the weekend for a staggering 84.6% accuracy, easily outdoing all other systems this week. The only games it picked incorrectly were the upset by the Colts of the Seahawks and Baltimore's victory over the Dolphins in Miami.

Most other systems, Vegas Lines and both the Blind Pick systems (Best Record and Home Team), only managed to pick 8 games correctly this weekend for a very average 61.5% accuracy.

Once again Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula finished last, managing to only pick 7 of the 13 games correctly this weekend for a meager 53.9% accuracy. It appears the offseason refinements to the Overall PPY formula to create the Home/Away PPY formula have been worth the effort.

All systems, except for the Best Record Wins system, favor the Falcons at home tonight in the non-conference Monday Night matchup between two struggling teams.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 4
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 11. Falcons by 10.5, Over/Under 43.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets better at 2-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Atlanta Falcons by 3

Week 5 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

Friday, October 4, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - Week 5 (2013)

Only the Overall PPY formula picked last night's game incorrectly, taking the Bills to win while all other formulas doubted their ability to handle a pesky Browns team. Will that system continue to stumble or will it find some magic with the rest of its week 5 picks?

Sunday Game Predictions:

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1. Saints by 1, Over/Under 50
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 4-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 1. Bengals by 1, Over/Under 45
     Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 4-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
     Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks by 2.5, Over/Under 43.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 4-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Packers by 8, Over/Under 53.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 3-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 9
     Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins by 2.5, Over/Under 44
     Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins better at 3-1
     Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 15
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 1. Giants by 1, Over/Under 53
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 1-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 8
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs by 2.5, Over/Under 38.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 4-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 13. Rams by 12.5, Over/Under 41.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3. Rams better at 1-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 15
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2. Panthers by 1.5, Over/Under 42
     Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 2-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 15
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 9. Broncos by 8.5, Over/Under 56.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 4-0
     Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 7
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. Chargers by 4, Over/Under 45
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 2-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6. 49ers by 5.5, Over/Under 41.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 2-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3

Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - TNF - Week 5 (2013)

After struggling last week, all prediction systems look to improve their accuracy heading into the Week 5 games. Will any system recover and hit that 70% mark? Only the Overall PPY formula has the Bills winning in tonight's epic Thursday Night matchup.

Thursday Night Game Prediction:

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Buffalo Bills by 1
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3
     Vegas Lines Pick: Cleveland Browns by 4. Browns by 3.5, Over/Under 40.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3. Both teams at 2-2, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Cleveland Browns by 3

Check back tomorrow for predictions on the remaining Week 5 matchups...

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings ~ Week 4 (2013)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, production is combined with potential to determine a team's true strength compared to the rest of the league. Winning isn't the only factor, but it is one of the most important components of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 32)
                    This team is terrible. No other way to say it. No reason to sugarcoat it either.

     # 31 - New York Giants (previous: 31)
                    Schisms between the offense and the defense are always good for teams… especially for teams playing as terribly as the Giants are. If the Jaguars weren't in complete self-destruct mode, the Giants would easily be the worst team in the league right now.

     # 30 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 30)
                    I cannot remember the Steelers playing this poorly… I'm sure they have, but Pittsburgh and 0-4 just doesn't feel right.

     # 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 29)
                    All signs point to Freeman not only being benched in Tampa Bay, but also being kicked out of the city entirely before the week 6 trade deadline. Talk about a quick fall from grace.

     # 28 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 25)
                    The Rams looked terrible last Thursday… maybe they needed more than three days to recover from the beating Dallas put on them the Sunday before. Bradford needs to step his game up, otherwise St. Louis will be looking for a new QB by season's end.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 20)
                    Time of possession is a big part of winning in the NFL, especially if your defense cannot keep the other guys from scoring touchdowns.

     # 26 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 22)
                    The Raiders continue to play up - or down - to their preseason expectations.

     # 25 - Washington Redskins (previous: 28)
                    A little bit of positivity for the Redskins… but a win over the Raiders is not exactly worth writing home to your mother about.

     # 24 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 27)
                    The Vikings get their first win of the season about as far removed from the home fans as they can get!

     # 23 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 18)
                    Ugh… three losses already and now they trail the Saints by three full games. The Falcons have dug themselves quite the hole to climb out of.

     # 22 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 16)
                    The worst part about Green Bay's bye week? The Lions and Bears played each other and now the Packers are two games out of first place in the win column.

     # 21 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 19)
                    An early bye-week following a big win may be just what the Panthers needed to push for a wild card spot.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - New York Jets (previous: 15)
                    So much for winning and losing ugly… the Jets just got clobberd by the Titans.

     # 19 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 24)
                    A small, hard-fought victory last weekend as the Cardinals continue to try and discover their identity.

     # 18 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 26)
                    The win over the Rams was a good first step towards righting the ship.

     # 17 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 10)
                    Just when you think the division is theirs for the taking, the Bengals go out and get beat by the Browns. Nothing like creating a log jam of mediocrity in the AFC North.

     # 16 - Houston Texans (previous: 14)
                    If this is their year, the Texans certainly are not playing like it.

     # 15 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 23)
                    Ok, so maybe they aren't giving up on the season after all. A win over the Bengals says far more than a win over the Vikings.

     # 14 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 13)
                    Despite the huge contract, Flacco still needs a running game in order to be effective.

     # 13 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 21)
                    A big victory by the Bills at home has them right there in the AFC East mix.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 8)
                    If you are going to lose, losing on the road to a non-conference opponent is the way to do it. Of course, good teams don't lose on the road to average teams. Still too early to say if Dallas is truly good this year or if they are just getting by in the weakest division in football.

     # 11 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 17)
                    Despite a big win in front of the home crowd, the Chargers are still two full games behind both the Broncos and the Chiefs.

     # 10 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 7)
                    Tough matchup on the road Monday Night, but Miami still keeps showing a lot of promise and potential.

     # 9 - Chicago Bears (previous: 3)
                    Chicago may have stumbled in Detroit, but they will have something to say about that later this year when the Lions come back to visit them. But for now…

     # 8 - Detroit Lions (previous: 11)
                    ...The Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North.

     # 7 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 12)
                    How can the Titans score 38 points and only get 20+ yards rushing out of Chris Johnson? A question on the minds of many fantasy owners following last week's impressive win over the Jets.

     # 6 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 9)
                    No sophomore slump here!



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
                    Brady is the definition of a winner - no matter who he has around him, no matter how many times they drop the ball - he finds a way to lead his team to victory. It doesn't even matter who they are playing.

     # 4 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 5)
                    The Saints keep on flying… and now they are playing defense, too.

     # 3 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 6)
                    The Chiefs may be a little overrated, but after starting a surprising 4-0 they deserve to be ranked this high for at least one week.

     # 2 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 2)
                    If anybody out there was wondering if Seattle could win a close game, on the road, against a good team… now we know.

     # 1 - Denver Broncos (previous: 1)
                    If they do get to 14-0, I really hope the Broncos don't bench Manning and try to save him for the playoffs. History shows that just doesn't work. Go for perfection!



Week 4 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - Cincinnati Bengals (-7), Philadelphia Eagles (-7), Chicago Bears (-6), Green Bay Packers (-6), New York Jets (-5)

The Biggest Movers - Buffalo Bills (+8), Cleveland Browns (+8), San Francisco 49ers (+8), San Diego Chargers (+6), Tennessee Titans (+5)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Denver Broncos (1), Seattle Seahawks (2), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29), Pittsburgh Steelers (30), New York Giants (31), Jacksonville Jaguars (32)

Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVIII Favorite ~ After Week 4

 Denver Broncos

Check back later today for Thursday Night Game predictions...

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Week 4 Results (2013) ~ "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..."

There were not a lot of surprises this week in the fantasy world... the great players continued to play great and the terrible teams continued to play terrible.

In week 4, only the Houston Texans managed to win a fantasy game they lost in real life when they outscored the Seattle Seahawks 84-60.

High score of the week goes to the Denver Broncos (no surprise there), who scored 128 points against the Philadelphia Eagles.


Biggest victory of the week, however, goes to the Indianapolis Colts, who crushed the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars by 89 points, 110-21. Start all your fantasy players playing against the Jaguars!

Low score falls to the Jacksonville Jaguars at a mere 21 points. To put that score into perspective, 17 of the 30 NFL teams that played this week scored 21 real points or more. Jacksonville is beyond terrible at this point. Their 21 fantasy points were not enough to even come close to the 37 real points the Colts scored against them.


But the Jaguars were not alone this week. Both the St. Louis Rams (31 fantasy points) and the Philadelphia Eagles (50 fantasy points) both failed to score enough fantasy points to beat the real number of points scored against them by the San Francisco 49ers (35) and the Denver Broncos (52). Ouch.

Closest Game of the Week: Detroit Lions 90, Chicago Bears 88. Detroit takes sole possession of first place in the NFC North after holding off Chicago by a mere 2 fantasy points.

Fantasy Star of the Week: Drew Brees, 32 points. Once again Brees outscores Peyton Manning to rank as the top fantasy star.

Fantasy Dud of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles Defense, -9 points. I don't normally highlight the lowest individual performances of the week, but it has been a long, long time since a player or defensive unit has scored so many negative points.


Week 4 Game Results:

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
     Fantasy Score: San Francisco 49ers 81, St. Louis Rams 31
     San Francisco's Key Performers: Frank Gore (19), Anquan Boldin (15), Defense (13)
     St. Louis' Key Performers: Sam Bradford (8), Lance Kendricks (6), Austin Pettis (5)

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
     Fantasy Score: Buffalo Bills 71, Baltimore Ravens 66
     Baltimore's Key Performers: Torrey Smith (22), Joe Flacco (11), Marlon Brown (9)
     Buffalo's Key Performers: Robert Woods (15), Fred Jackson (14), Defense (14)

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
     Fantasy Score: Cleveland Browns 77, Cincinnati Bengals 34
     Cincinnati's Key Performers: Mike Nugent (7), Giovani Bernard (6), A.J. Green (5)
     Cleveland's Key Performers: Brian Hoyer (18), Jordan Cameron (15), Defense (13)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
     Fantasy Score: Detroit Lions 90, Chicago Bears 88
     Chicago's Key Performers: Alshon Jeffrey (20), Matt Forte (17), Jay Cutler (16)
     Detroit's Key Performers: Reggie Bush (22), David Akers (18), Matthew Stafford (15)

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
     Fantasy Score: Houston Texans 84, Seattle Seahawks 60
     Seattle's Key Performers: Marshawn Lynch (17), Defense (16), Steven Hauschka (13)
     Houston's Key Performers: Arian Foster (22), Matt Schaub (18), Garrett Graham (12)

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
     Fantasy Score: Indianapolis Colts 110, Jacksonville Jaguars 21
     Indianapolis' Key Performers: Defense (23), Andrew Luck (18), Reggie Wayne (16)
     Jacksonville's Key Performers: Cecil Shorts (6), Josh Scobee (5), Ace Sanders (5)

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
     Fantasy Score: Kansas City Chiefs 103, New York Giants 42
     New York's Key Performers: Victor Cruz (22), Eli Manning (7), David Wilson (5)
     Kansas City's Key Performers: Alex Smith (22), Defense (19), Jamaal Charles (18)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
     Fantasy Score: Minnesota Vikings 95, Pittsburgh Steelers 77
     Pittsburgh's Key Performers: Le'Von Bell (19), Jerricho Cotchery (16), Ben Roethlisberger (15)
     Minnesota's Key Performers: Adrian Peterson (26), Greg Jennings (21), Matt Cassel (17)

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
     Fantasy Score: Arizona Cardinals 57, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47
     Arizona's Key Performers: Larry fitzgerald (12), Defense (12), Carson Palmer (9)
     Tampa Bay's Key Performers: Defense (11), Mike Williams (9), Rian Lindell (6)

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
     Fantasy Score: Tennessee Titans 97, New York Jets 42
     New York's Key Performers: Bilal Powell (10), Nick Folk (9), Jeff Cumberland (9)
     Tennessee's Key Performers: Defense (23), Nate Washington (22), Jake Locker (18)

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
     Fantasy Score: Denver Broncos 128, Philadelphia Eagles 50
     Philadelphia's Key Performers: Michael Vick (13), Jeff Maehl (10), Chris Polk (10)
     Denver's Key Performers: Peyton Manning (29), Demaryius Thomas (20), Wes Welker (19)

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders
     Fantasy Score: Washington Redskins 76, Oakland Raiders 50
     Washington's Key Performers: Defense (18), Roy Helu (14), Robert Griffin III (14)
     Oakland's Key Performers: Rashad Jennings (11), Mychal Rivera (10), Defense (10)

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers
     Fantasy Score: San Diego Chargers 109, Dallas Cowboys 64
     Dallas' Key Performers: Dez Bryant (20), Tony Romo (18), DeMarco Murray (9)
     San Diego's Key Performers: Philip Rivers (26), Danny Woodhead (20), Antonio Gates (19)

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons
     Fantasy Score: New England Patriots 93, Atlanta Falcons 84
     New England's Key Performers: Tom Brady (20), Kenbrell Thompkins (18), Stephen Gostkowski (14)
     Atlanta's Key Performers: Tony Gonzalez (26), Matt Ryan (22), Matt Bryant (12)

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
     Fantasy Score: New Orleans Saints 113, Miami Dolphins 50
     Miami's Key Performers: Lamar Miller (12), Charles Clay (10), Ryan Tannehill (9)
     New Orleans' Key Performers: Drew Brees (32), Darren Sproles (23), Jimmy Graham (22)

Tomorrow, The Art of Creative Misfortune Power Rankings