Only the Overall PPY formula picked last night's game incorrectly, taking the Bills to win while all other formulas doubted their ability to handle a pesky Browns team. Will that system continue to stumble or will it find some magic with the rest of its week 5 picks?
Sunday Game Predictions:
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 11
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans Saints by 1. Saints by 1, Over/Under 50
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans Saints by 3. Saints better at 4-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago Bears by 3
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: New England Patriots by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 1. Bengals by 1, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: New England Patriots by 3. Patriots better at 4-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati Bengals by 3
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 2
Vegas Lines Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks by 2.5, Over/Under 43.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle Seahawks by 3. Seahawks better at 4-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Detroit Lions by 3
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 8. Packers by 8, Over/Under 53.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Detroit Lions by 3. Lions better at 3-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Baltimore Ravens by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Miami Dolphins by 9
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins by 2.5, Over/Under 44
Best Record Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3. Dolphins better at 3-1
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami Dolphins by 3
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 15
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Giants by 1. Giants by 1, Over/Under 53
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 1-3
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 8
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs by 2.5, Over/Under 38.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 3. Chiefs better at 4-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 14
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: St. Louis Rams by 5
Vegas Lines Pick: St. Louis Rams by 13. Rams by 12.5, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3. Rams better at 1-3
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis Rams by 3
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Carolina Panthers by 15
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: Carolina Panthers by 2. Panthers by 1.5, Over/Under 42
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3. Cardinals better at 2-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona Cardinals by 3
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 15
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Denver Broncos by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver Broncos by 9. Broncos by 8.5, Over/Under 56.5
Best Record Wins Pick: Denver Broncos by 3. Broncos better at 4-0
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas Cowboys by 3
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Diego Chargers by 7
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Oakland Raiders by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego Chargers by 4. Chargers by 4, Over/Under 45
Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Chargers better at 2-2
Home Team Wins Pick: Oakland Raiders by 3
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 1
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6. 49ers by 5.5, Over/Under 41.5
Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. Both teams at 2-2, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3
Check back next week for Monday Night's prediction.
you say the home/away ppy only got the Miami and Indy game wrong, what about the St louis and SF. home/away ppy had St louis to win by 5, spread was 10 and home/away ppy had SF to win by 3 spread was 5.5
ReplyDeleteThe formula picked both the St. Louis and San Francisco games correctly, in that the Rams beat the Jaguars and the 49ers defeated the Texans. The spread referenced by the formula is just a measure of how close the game looks like it will be. All prediction formulas, including the Vegas Lines system, are graded based on whether or not they picked the overall winner of the game correctly, not how well they perform "against the spread". I have considered adding a secondary prediction standings to show how well each system does against the spread, but have not had time to implement it. That may be a prediction feature I add for the 2014 season. Thanks for following!
ReplyDeleteThanks Ryan, keep up the great work
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