Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview - Denver's Offense vs Seattle's Defense

The Denver Broncos are a team that crushes their opponent's spirit by scoring 35+ points a game. Few teams have won as often as the Broncos the past two seasons - or by so much. Peyton Manning, nearly forced to retire two seasons ago because of neck injuries, can pick apart a defense like few other quarterbacks in NFL history. His ability to read a defense and know exactly where to go each and every play will force Seattle's talented secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are among the many versatile weapons Manning has at his disposal.

While the Broncos are known for their passing game, their ability to run the football may be the key to winning the Super Bowl for them. Their offensive line has managed to stay reasonably healthy this season and has kept aggressive defenses from wrecking havoc with the timing of their passing game. This has also helped Denver open up its running game. Knowshon Moreno finished the season with over 1,000 yards rushing and Montee Ball added another 500 yards.

The Seattle Sehawks defense has played lights out football during their run through the regular season and playoffs. Just as versatile on defense as the Broncos are on offense, Seattle's defensive front seven look to completely disrupt the high-powered Denver attack. If Seattle's defense can slow down the Broncos enough to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will be able to give Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch a fighting chance to keep pace with Peyton Manning and company. The Seahawks can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Broncos if their offense can give them any kind of lead during the game.

Super Bowl XLVIII Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category

Broncos Offense vs

Seahawks Defense Allowed

When They Collide…
Rushing Values




Rushing Points

149

67


Rushing Yards

2113

1895

Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard

0.071

0.035

0.053




At their Best (DEF worst)

280 yards

205 yards

243 yards = 12.9 pts = 13 pts
2013 Average

117 yards

105 yards

111 yards = 5.9 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)

  18 yards

  13 yards

  16 yards = 0.9 pts = 1 pt




Passing Values




Passing Points

423

151


Passing Yards

6074

3200

Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard

0.070

0.047

0.059




At their Best (DEF Worst)

445 yards

325 yards

385 yards = 22.7 pts = 23 pts
2013 Average

337 yards

283 yards

310 yards = 18.3 pts = 18 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)

132 yards

107 yards

120 yards = 7.1 pts   =   7 pts




Projected Score Breakdown

Rushing + Passing 

Combined Points


At their Best

13 pts + 23 pts

          36


2013 Average

  6 pts + 18 pts

          24


At their Worst

  1 pt  +   7 pts

           8


Projected Super Bowl XLVIII Score for the Denver Broncos: 23 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Seattle Seahawks offense compares to the Denver Broncos defense. Will the numbers for the Seahawks put them over the 23 points the Broncos are projected to score?

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