Monday, January 10, 2011

Wild Card Playoff Games - Roundup of Creative Misfortune

The Wild Card games proved to be wild indeed. Both Super Bowl teams from last season are gone and not only are the Seahawks still alive, they still have a losing record. System pick results are shown below.

Wild Card Playoff Results:

AFC #6 New York Jets at AFC #3 Indianapolis Colts (Actual ~ New York, 17-16)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 24-17. The Colts have had to fight to get here, whereas the Jets have just talked their way into this game.
     Scottie V's Pick: New York, 20-14. I've got no love for the Jets, but I just don't think the Colts have what it takes this year.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 24-21. Indianapolis by 2.5, Over/Under 44.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 24-13. Indianapolis 65% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New York, 31-14. New York won all 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 11-5.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17

     Last season Indianapolis Coach Jim Caldwell was called into question for shutting down his undefeated team at 14-0 in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs instead of going for perfection. This season it will be the ill-fated timeout in the closing seconds of the game that will have everybody talking. Unless the defense was completely out of position, how can you possibly call a timeout while leading with less than one minute to go when the other team is scrambling to get back in the game? As Peyton Manning stewed on the sideline, the Jets caught their breath and went for the juggular. The timeout helped turn a long, 51-yard game-winning field goal into a chip shot after a deep pass to Braylon Edwards capitalized on a breakdown in the Colts' coverage. Indianapolis may need to do some soul-searching during the off-season. As for New York, round three with the Patriots awaits. Will the talkative Jets be able to take their boasting into New England and upset their bitter, division rival?


AFC #5 Baltimore Ravens at AFC #4 Kansas City Chiefs (Actual ~ Baltimore, 30-7)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore, 21-17. As much as I'd like to see the Chiefs win, Baltimore has too much playoff experience for the young upstarts to handle.
     Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 23-17. After a hideous game against the Raiders last weekend, KC regroups with the help of a fierce Arrowhead crowd.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 24-20. Baltimore by 3, Over/Under 40.5.
     Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 23-14. Baltimore 63% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Kansas City, 30-17. Kansas City won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore better at 12-4.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17

     The lights finally went out on Kansas City's surprising season. A defensive struggle in the first half gave way to an offensive explosion by the Ravens in the second half as Baltimore easily knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs. The Ravens now pack their bags for a trip to the friendly confines of Heinz Field where another battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers looms on the horizon. For Kansas City, the 2010 season ended in bittersweet fashion. Nobody expected them to be in the playoffs, but once they got there, nobody expected them to be crushed at home in their first playoff game.


NFC #6 Green Bay Packers at NFC #3 Philadelphia Eagles (Actual ~ Green Bay, 21-16)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 28-24. The Packers have been in total survival mode for weeks now while the Eagles have stumbled recently. Once the Packers D starts hitting Vick early and often, the Eagles will fall apart before the home crowd.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 23-20. A-Rodg is healthy and the Pack feel at home on Philly's version of the frozen tundra... Vick throws an ill-fated pick in 4th quarter.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 26-20. Philadelphia by 3, Over/Under 46.
     Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 17-14. Philadelphia 52% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 27-17. Philadelphia won 4 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Both records at 10-6, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17

     Aaron Rodgers added to his legacy and moved further away from Brett Favre's shadow in Green Bay as the Packers upset the Philadelphia Eagles. A strong running game, great passing by Rodgers and a solid defensive stand all contributed to Green Bay's victory. The Eagles once again fail in the playoffs under Andy Reid and Philly's media and fans can now look forward to another long, cold winter of roasting the home team and second-guessing their performance. The Packers now move on to face the NFC's #1 seed, the Atlanta Falcons, next Saturday night.

NFC #5 New Orleans Saints at NFC #4 Seattle Seahawks (Actual ~ Seattle, 41-36)
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 31-17. Even on the road in a loud, rocking stadium, the defending champions will not be knocked out of the playoffs by a team with a losing record.
     Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 31-17. Seattle keeps it close in the first half thanks to their infamous 12th man, but in the end, the Seahawks are bad.
     Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 28-17. New Orleans by 10, Over/Under 44.
     Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 30-7. New Orleans 80% win confidence
     What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 26-20. New Orleans won 3 of 5 simulations.
     Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 11-5.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17

     The upset of the playoffs has tabled most of the talks regarding seeded playoffs in the NFL as the Seahawks, 8-9 overall on the season, took advantage of their home crowd and ended the Saints' championship reign. The entertaining, high-scoring game featured 44 points in the first half and another 33 points in the second half. The Saints defense failed miserably as Matt Hasselbeck looked like an absolute superstar. The defensive woes for New Orleans hit rock bottom with Marshawn Lynch's dynamic, beast of a run, which drove the final nail in the Saints' coffin. No less than eight different Saints defenders failed to take Lynch down as he fought his way for 67 yards and the game-winning touchdown. While the Saints head back to New Orleans a beaten team, Seattle now heads east to face the Chicago Bears.

Wild Card Playoff Final Prediction Scoreboard...
     Scottie V's2-2 (season overall: 164-96)
     Creative Misfortune: 2-2 (season overall: 153-107) *1 Perfect Pick
     Best Record Wins Pick: 2-2 (season overall: 152-108) *3 Perfect Picks
     Vegas Picks: 1-3 (season overall: 169-91) *2 Perfect Picks
     Accuscore: 1-3 (season overall: 165-95)
     Home Team Wins Pick: 1-3 (season overall: 144-116) *3 Perfect Picks
     What If Sports: 1-3 (season overall: 138-122) *1 Perfect Pick
                                       

Check back on Wednesday for Creative Misfortune's Playoff Power Rankings. Only eight teams remain.

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