Super Bowl XLV Preview - Green Bay Offense vs Pittsburgh Defense

The Green Bay Packers can be truly outstanding on the offensive side of the ball. When Aaron Rodgers is dialed in, no defensive secondary can contain him and even defensive lines have a hard time bringing this elusive quarterback down. Rodgers also has one of the most unselfish receiving corps to throw to – a rarity in today’s NFL.

While Green Bay has excelled this season by beating teams with their passing game, they have struggled to run the football and have quickly become the Indianapolis Colts of the NFC. Injuries to both their running backs and their offensive line have hurt Green Bay’s ability to establish the run in 2010. However, with the emergence of running back James Starks, the Packer rushing attack has switched into a higher gear. They may not break the 100-yard mark, but at least defenses now have to pretend to respect their ability to run the ball.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense will have to be at their best if they hope to slow down the Packer offense. The Steelers have played admirably this season and have been able to shut most opponents down. Pittsburgh has won games when their offense has struggled simply by the defense rising up to the next level and taking matters into their own hands. They may not be a modern reincarnation of the Steel Curtain defenses of the 70’s, but their success or failure will impact the final score directly. If the Steelers defense can’t figure out a way to frustrate Rodgers and Co, it will be a very long day for Pittsburgh fans.

Super Bowl XLV Statistical Matchup
            *Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

            Stat Keys:
                        Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points
                        Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

                        Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing
                        Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category	Packers Offense vs	Steelers Defense Allowed	When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points	141	84
Rushing Yards	1960	1109	Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard	0.072	0.076	0.074
At their Best (DEF worst)	157 yards	106 yards allowed	132 yards = 9.7 pts = 10 pts
2010 Average	103 yards	62 yards allowed	83 yards = 6.1 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	60 yards	30 yards allowed	45 yards = 3.3 pts = 3 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points	295	168
Passing Yards	4877	3735	Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard	0.061	0.045	0.053
At their Best (DEF Worst)	515 yards	350 yards allowed	433 yards = 22.9 pts = 23 pts
2010 Average	360 yards	208 yards allowed	284 yards = 15.1 pts = 15 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)	237 yards	45 yards allowed	141 yards = 7.5 pts   = 8 pts
Projected Score Breakdown	Rushing + Passing	Combined Points
At their Best	10 pts + 23 pts	33
2010 Average	6 pts + 15 pts	21
At their Worst	3 pts + 8 pts	11

Project Green Bay Score: 21 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Pittsburgh Steelers offense compares to the Green Bay Packers defense. Will the Pittsburgh numbers put them over the 21 points Green Bay is projected to score?