Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Preview - New England's Offense vs Seattle's Defense

The New England Patriots are a team that crushes their opponent's spirit by scoring 35+ points a game. Few teams have won as often as the Patriots over the past decade - or by such outrageous, obnoxious numbers. Tom Brady can pick apart a defense like few other quarterbacks in NFL history. His ability to read a defense and know exactly where to go each and every play will force Seattle's secondary to stay with their coverages longer than normal. Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell are among the many, versatile weapons Brady has at his disposal.

While the Patriots are not traditionally known for their ability to run the football, their run game has exploded late in the season behind the powerful running of LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. The offensive line is playing outstanding as well and has kept aggressive defenses from wrecking havoc with the timing of their passing game.

The Seattle Seahawks defense has played lights out football during their run through the regular season and playoffs. Just as versatile on defense as the Patriots are on offense, Seattle's defensive front seven look to completely disrupt the high-powered New England attack. If Seattle's defense can slow down the Patriots enough to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will be able to give Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch a fighting chance to keep pace with Tom Brady and company. The Seahawks can win the game with their defense, but they will have a lot easier time containing the Patriots if their offense can give them an early lead. They can’t expect a miracle finish two games in row.

Super Bowl XLIX Statistical Matchup

*Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

Stat Keys:

Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing

Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category
Patriots Offense vs
Seahawks Defense Allowed
When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points
143
87
Rushing Yards
1918
1571
Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard
0.075
0.055
0.065
At their Best (DEF worst)
246 yards
190 yards
218 yards = 14.2 pts = 14 pts
2014 Average
107 yards
87 yards
97 yards = 6.3 pts = 6 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)
14 yards
29 yards
22 yards = 1.4 pts = 1 pt
Passing Values
Passing Points
291
151
Passing Yards
4749
3371
Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard
0.061
0.045
0.053
At their Best (DEF Worst)
408 yards
296 yards
352 yards = 18.7 pts = 19 pts
2014 Average
264 yards
187 yards
226 yards = 12.0 pts = 12 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)
142 yards
82 yards
112 yards = 5.9 pts = 6 pts
Projected Score Breakdown
Rushing + Passing
Combined Points
At their Best
14 pts + 19 pts
33
2014 Average
6 pts + 12 pts
18
At their Worst
1 pt + 6 pts
7

Projected Super Bowl XLIX Score for the New England Patriots: 20 points

Check back tomorrow to see how the Seattle Seahawks offense compares to the New England Patriots defense. Will the numbers for the Seahawks put them over the 20 points the Patriots are projected to score?

 

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