Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Preview - Seattle's Offense vs New England's Defense

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing hard-nosed, solid football all season long. Despite stumbling a bit early in the season, they have played well when it mattered most – aside from the first 55 minutes of the NFC Championship game. A favorite all season, Seattle has lived up to their expectations so far and now face an extremely difficult test in the Super Bowl against a New England unit that has been just as dominating on the AFC side of the house. The young Russell Wilson leads the offense along with the help of Marshawn Lynch, a punishing back who will move piles and knock out would be tacklers every chance he can get.

Despite the weapons that Seattle has at their disposal – a star quarterback, a power running game, a solid receiving corps and a strong offensive line - the Seahawks offense will be no match for the crafty Patriots if their defense can't slow down Brady and the interesting array of formations New England has in store for them.

The Patriots, for their part, have improved greatly on defense during the second half of the season. The defense is not one that strikes fear into their opponents, since their offense often gives them a good lead to work with, but New England has played solid defense throughout the season, aside from a game or two. The Patriots will have to play better than average defense if they want to slow down Seattle's power running game so they can get Tom Brady and his charges back on the field. It's always easier to play defense when your offense gives you a 21-point lead to work with.

Super Bowl XLIX Statistical Matchup

*Note: None of these stats “mean” anything, but let’s have fun with them anyway… Numbers include playoff games

Stat Keys:

Passing Points = Total Passing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Rushing Points = Total Rushing Touchdowns + ½ Total Field Goal Points

Points per Passing Yard = Passing Points / Total Yards Passing

Points per Rushing Yard = Rushing Points / Total Yards Rushing

Category
Seahwks Offense vs
NE Defense Allowed
When They Collide…
Rushing Values
Rushing Points
186
85
Rushing Yards
3056
1888
Each rushing yard worth
Points per Rushing Yard
0.061
0.045
0.053
At their Best (DEF worst)
350 yards
218 yards
284 yards = 15.1 pts = 15 pts
2014 Average
170 yards
105 yards
138 yards = 7.3 pts = 7 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)
80 yards
19 yards
50 yards = 2.6 pts = 3 pts
Passing Values
Passing Points
187
212
Passing Yards
3701
4255
Each passing yard worth
Points per Passing Yard
0.051
0.050
0.051
At their Best (DEF Worst)
329 yards
429 yards
379 yards = 19.3 pts = 19 pts
2014 Average
206 yards
236 yards
221 yards = 11.3 pts = 11 pts
At their Worst (DEF Best)
126 yards
126 yards
126 yards = 6.4 pts = 6 pts
Projected Score Breakdown
Rushing + Passing
Combined Points
At their Best
15 pts + 19 pts
34
2014 Average
7 pts + 11 pts
18
At their Worst
3 pts + 6 pts
9

Projected Super Bowl XLIX Score for the Seattle Seahawks: 20 points

Based on the New England projections from yesterday versus the Seattle defense -

If both offenses come out blazing and the defenses stumble, expect Seattle to win a very close shoot-out, 34-33.

If both teams play as they have tended to play all season, expect the game to go into overtime with both teams having scored 17 points. All bets are off at that point.

If a knock-down, drag-out defensive struggle takes place, expect the Seahawks to win on the strength of field goals by the score of 9-7.

If Seattle comes out playing perfect and New England plays like they have in recent Super Bowls, expect the Seahawks to cruise to their second straight Super Bowl title by a projected score of 34-7.

If New England comes out playing perfect and Seattle plays like they did the first three-and-a-half quarters against Green Bay in the NFC Championship game, expect the Patriots to run away with their fourth Super Bowl championship by a projected score of 33-9.

Based on these statistical comparisons, if the Patriots hope to win, they need their offense to be on fire or their defense to be on fire. If both units play average, expect the Seahawks to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after the game.

Check back tomorrow to see how these two Super Bowl franchises stack up to each other both in history and intangibles…

 

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