2013 NFL Predicted Standings

Below are Creative Misfortune's official predictions for how the AFC and NFC will shake out through the regular season and playoffs. Playoff predictions and Creative Misfortune's Super Bowl XLVIII favorites will be listed below the standings.

*These standings projections are based on Creative Misfortune's Home & Away Points Per Yard game prediction formula and each NFL team's projected strength of schedule for the 2013 season. Teams are listed in order of their projected finish within their division.

AFC East ~
     New England Patriots  *Division Champion, first-round bye and AFC playoff seed #1

     Buffalo Bills
         
     Miami Dolphins

     New York Jets


AFC North ~
     Cincinnati Bengals  *Division Champion and AFC playoff seed #4

     Pittsburgh Steelers  *Wild Card and AFC playoff seed #6

     Baltimore Ravens

     Cleveland Browns

AFC South ~
     Houston Texans  *Division Champion and AFC playoff seed #3

     Indianapolis Colts

     Tennessee Titans

     Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West ~
     Denver Broncos  *Division Champion, first-round bye and AFC playoff seed #2

     San Diego Chargers  *Wild Card and AFC playoff seed #5

     Oakland Raiders

     Kansas City Chiefs



NFC East ~
     New York Giants  *Division Champion and NFC playoff seed #4

     Washington Redskins

     Dallas Cowboys
     
     Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North ~
     Chicago Bears  *Division Champion, first-round bye and NFC playoff seed #2

     Green Bay Packers  *Wild Card and AFC playoff seed #6

     Minnesota Vikings

     Detroit Lions

NFC South ~
     Atlanta Falcons  *Division Champion and NFC playoff seed #3

     New Orleans Saints

     Tampa Bay Buccaneers

     Carolina Panthers

NFC West ~
     San Francisco 49ers  *Division Champion, first-round bye and NFC playoff seed #1

     Seattle Seahawks  *Wild Card and NFC playoff seed #5

     St. Louis Rams

     Arizona Cardinals


Projected AFC Playoff Teams ~
     Division Champions
     #1 New England Patriots
     #2 Denver Broncos
     #3 Houston Texans
     #4 Cincinnati Bengals
   
     Wild Cards
     #5 San Diego Chargers
     #6 Pittsburgh Steelers

Wild Card Games ~
     #3 Houston over #6 Pittsburgh
     #4 Cincinnati over #5 San Diego

Divisional Games ~
     #1 New England over #4 Cincinnati
     #2 Denver over #3 Houston

AFC Championship Game ~
     #1 New England over #2 Denver



Projected NFC Playoff Teams ~
     Division Champions
     #1 San Francisco 49ers
     #2 Chicago Bears
     #3 Atlanta Falcons
     #4 New York Giants
   
     Wild Cards
     #5 Seattle Seahawks
     #6 Green Bay Packers

Wild Card Games ~
     #3 Atlanta over #6 Green Bay
     #4 New York Giants over #5 Seattle

Divisional Games ~
     #1 San Francisco over #4 New York Giants
     #3 Atlanta over #2 Chicago

NFC Championship Game ~
     #1 San Francisco over #3 Atlanta


Creative Misfortune's Preseason Super Bowl XLVIII favorites ~

 New England Patriots

 

vs

 

 San Francisco 49ers

Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune's Preseason Power Rankings…

"If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." 2013 Season Preview

Fantasy football is a juggernaut industry now. For better or worse, players are called out by fans for their inability to achieve greater stat lines. Who cares if you won or lost? Why didn’t you gain a few extra yards or get that third touchdown, or, most egregious of all, why did you get hurt in the first quarter?

Arian Foster, star running back of the Houston Texans, has expressed his frustration with fantasy football fans “concerned” about his injury via his Twitter account. Kurt Warner, one of the greatest comeback players in NFL history, once admitted to Peter King a small part of the reason he decided to retire was the emphasis on his individual stats from a fantasy perspective, regardless of whether or not he led the Cardinals to victory.

As fantasy football has gained in popularity, so too has the complexity and realness of fantasy leagues. Many custom leagues now strive for an NFL feel by having keepers, salary caps, etc. Yet these rosters will always fail to have that “real” NFL feeling to them, because they are All-Pro teams.

Actual football teams, however, do not consist of All-Pro talent at every roster spot. Football is much more of a team sport. Can you name a team that ever won the Super Bowl by “buying” an NFL championship? You can’t. In fact, the opposite tends to happen. Just look at Exhibit A – the Washington Redskins of recent years.

Since the NFL is such a team sport, and fantasy football is anything but a team game, I wondered what would happen if real NFL games were decided by typical fantasy football scoring and rules. Will the dominate teams that challenge for the real Super Bowl by mixing and matching players to get the best possible outcome fair as well in a fantasy season where they get no points if their third string running back scores the TD or they only get points for the quarterback’s TD pass, but not for the fourth-string receiver who caught it?

In 2010 and 2011, The Art of Creative Misfortune ran a fantasy football season based on the NFL schedule to figure out how the season would turn out if real football used fantasy football scoring. The results were quite interesting. Neither of those Fantasy Bowl championship games featured teams that went on to play in the Super Bowl. In fact, none of the teams made the real playoffs, despite their statistical prowess.

Will such a disconnect hold true during a third season of “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…”?

Come week 16, we will know for certain when Fantasy Bowl III is played. Will the title game feature teams strong enough to make the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl or will it feature the statistical juggernauts unable to win actual games consistently?

Creative Misfortune’s “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…” season will implement the following rules and scoring system, a variation of the one used by ESPN’s default public fantasy leagues.

Roster Details – Each team’s weekly fantasy starting players will be based on how much each player is used during a game by an NFL coach.

Team scores will be calculated based on ESPN’s scoring system (detailed below) and each starting lineup will consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense.

The lineups will be filled out based on the following criteria:

The Quarterback that starts the game will be the fantasy quarterback of record.

The two Running Backs who get the most carries (regardless of yards or TDs).

The three Wide Receivers or Tight End that catch the most passes (regardless of yards or TDs).

The Kicker that attempts the most field goals

Scoring Details – Scoring for each fantasy game will be determined by a slight variation of ESPN’s default fantasy scoring system, listed below.

Offensive Scoring
1 pt for every 25 yards passing
1 pt for every 10 yards rushing or receiving
4 pts for every passing TD
6 pts for every rushing or receiving TD
2 pts for a two-point conversion (passing, rushing or receiving)
-2 pts for an interception or lost fumble

Defensive Scoring
1 pt for every sack
2 pts for an interception, a fumble recovery or a safety
6 pts for a defensive TD (interception or fumble)
6 pts for a kickoff, punt return or block kick return touchdown
    A starting offensive player who returns a kick for a TD will not be given double points

10 pts if the defense allows 0 offensive points
7 pts if the defense allows 1-6 offensive points
4 pts if the defense allows 7-13 offensive points
1 pt if the defense allows 14-17 offensive points
0 pts if the defense allows 18-21 offensive points
-1 pt if the defense allows 22-27 offensive points
-4 pt if the defense allows 28-34 offensive points
-7 pts if the defense allows 35-45 offensive points
-10 pts if the defense allows 46+ offensive points

Kicking Scoring
1 pt for each PAT
3 pts for any field goal between 0-39 yards
4 pts for any field goal between 40-49 yards
5 pts for any field goal 50+ yards
-1 pt for any missed field goal
 


Season Schedule – The Creative Misfortune Fantasy Football regular season will last the first 12 weeks of the 2013 NFL schedule. Standings and game results will be updated every Wednesday. The playoffs begin Week 13 and culminate in Week 16 with a championship game.

Weeks 1-12: Regular Season Games
Week 13: Wild Card Playoff Games
Week 14: Divisional Playoff Games*
Week 15: Championship Playoff Games
Week 16: Creative Misfortune Fantasy Bowl II

Teams will qualify for the fantasy playoffs exactly the same way they qualify in the NFL (the four division champions and the two teams with the best record who did not win their division will qualify in each conference).

*To reflect the benefit gained by the top 2 seeds in each conference getting a bye week before they host Divisional Playoff games, the four teams who earn these bye weeks in the fantasy standings will play Week 13 to gain bonus points that will be added to their score in the Divisional Playoff round. For every 4 points they score in their Week 13 game, they will receive 1 bonus point in their Divisional round matchup.

For example, if Indianapolis earned the playoff bye and scored 80 fantasy points in Week 13, they would receive 20 bonus points (80/4) for their Divisional matchup. Conversely, if they had an off week and scored 22 fantasy points, they would only receive 5 bonus points (22/4, any fractional points rounded down).

Since there is no bye week between the Divisional games and the Championship Games, bonus points will only be a factor in the Divisional playoff games.


Tomorrow, Creative Misfortune’s predictions for the NFL standings and playoff teams...

Welcome to the Art of Creative Misfortune's Third Season!

Welcome back to the third season of Creative Misfortune! What is Creative Misfortune you ask?

For those of you new to these pages, Creative Misfortune, which finds its inspiration from the German phrase Schadenfreude, is all about taking your game to the next level in a creative way that brings misfortune to your opponents.

Here, at The Art of Creative Misfortune, we talk about football played by the great and infamous teams that make up the National Football League. Other blogs and sports pages will unduly praise teams within the league, while always ripping select others, despite their victories. Here every team will be called to task for their misfortune, or lack thereof.

Upon these pages, sarcasm will be read, games will be predicted, success and failure by each team will be reflected in weekly power rankings and the third annual, alternate-reality Creative Misfortune "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season will crown its Fantasy Bowl III champion. Will the New Orleans Saints be able to defend their 2011 title or will the numbers work against them as the 2013 season plays itself out?

Come and enjoy the football season along with the rest of us. It’s been a long summer filled with the uncertainty and preseason games, but now real games are just around the corner.

Kick back, get your popcorn ready... and if you stick around and find that your beloved team is skewered for its lack of creativity on any given Sunday, take heart, because your team will not be the only one basking in misfortune’s glory!

 

Upcoming Schedule of Events:

The third season of Creative Misfortune kicks off on Labor Day when I preview this season of "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring...".

Tuesday, September 3rd - standings predictions for all NFL teams, broken down by conference and division.

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings for 2013 make their debut on Wednesday, September 4th, ranking all NFL teams into one of five power classes -

               The Creative Elite ~ *Wielding misfortune at its finest

               The Fortunate Seven ~ *The best of what’s left

               The Remarkably Average ~ *Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory
              
               The Creatively Challenged ~ *Folly remains ever their mistress

               The Forked Few ~ *Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

On Thursday, September 5th, the NFL's regular season officially starts and so does Creative Misfortune's suite of game predictions. Points per Yard Formulas, Vegas Lines and the control system picks (Best Record and Home Team Wins) all will have their prognostication skills tested this season, starting with the battle between the Ravens and the Bronocs to kick off the 2013 season.

Once the Regular Season is under way, standard content will appear each week.

Mondays will feature predictions for the Monday Night Games.

Tuesdays will be a Creative Misfortune free for all with Curious Matters, Awards of Misfortune and other random blog content. It's best not to have any expectations.

Wednesdays will be dedicated to the "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." game results as teams fight their way through a statistical gauntlet en route to Fantasy Bowl III.

On Thursdays, Creative Misfortune Power Rankings! This season expect more movie quote themed rankings following the success of the Rocky rankings from year's past. The Creative Misfortune Super Bowl favorite through the current week will also be announced. Note: Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.  

Thursdays will also feasture predictions later in the day for any Thursday Night Games on the NFL schedule.

Fridays will round out the week, as they often do, with weekend game predictions detailing which teams each prediction system thinks you should look for in the victory column come Sunday.

Welcome back to another great season of Creative Misfortune!

Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Creative Misfortune - Season 2 Sign-Off

The second of Creative Misfortune’s blog seasons has finally come to an end. As we await the results of the NFL Draft in April, Creative Misfortune will now head into its offseason. While I am away, relive some of the many highlights during the second season of blogging action…

 

 

- Week-to-week Power Rankings led to the infamous Indiana Jones-themed rankings of Week 6, found here.

- The second ever “If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring…” champions – the 2011 New Orleans Saints – were crowned in Week 16.

- Team by team Season Recaps filled the void following Super Bowl XLVI.

Creative Misfortune will return in the fall once the NFL has resumed practices under the August sun. For now, go out and enjoy your spring and summer! Do not long for the passing of days until the NFL returns. Laugh and live life to its fullest.

After all, life is about making some things happen, not waiting for something to happen.

May your Creativity know no bounds and

May Misfortune and Folly never find you!

Tournament of Past Champions - Title Defense of the '99 St. Louis Rams

Last year, 128 of the greatest teams in football history came together and competed in Creative Misfortune’s Tournament of Past Champions. The tournament, comprised of 35 league champions (teams from the NFL, AFL and AAFC, who won their titles between 1941 and 1965), 45 Super Bowl champions, 45 Super Bowl runner-ups looking for redemption and 3 wild-cards pulled from the ranks of those modern-era teams so great during the regular season the football world was shocked when they did not make it to the Super Bowl (the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, the 2005 Indianapolis Colts and the 1987 San Francisco 49ers), proved to be a grueling task for all but the hardiest of teams.

In a single elimination tournament, with virtual game results determined by What If Sports computer simulations, 128 of the greatest teams in football history fought for supremacy and only one team – the 1999 St. Louis Rams, aka The Greatest Show on Turf – emerged victorious.

The road to the title for St. Louis was not an easy one. The Rams opened their tournament with a dominating 21-13 victory over the 1958 Baltimore Colts and really hit their stride in the second round when they absolutely crushed the 2001 New England Patriots, 29-12, in a matchup where they won every possible simulated game and avenged a real-world loss by the 2001 St. Louis Rams in the process.

St. Louis struggled mightily against the ’95 Cowboys in round three, advancing despite winning less than half of the simulations, but managed to find their high gear again when they defeated the 1962 Packers in their Fortunate 16 matchup, 21-14.

The Greatest Show on Turf punched their ticket to the Elite 4 with a gutty, one-point victory over the #1 seeded, 1985 Chicago Bears and then rolled into the title game after defeating Brett Favre and the 1996 Green Bay Packers. A victory over the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers completed St. Louis’ championship run.

One year removed from their outstanding victory, two new upstarts are set to challenge the ‘99 Rams for the title of greatest team ever – this season’s Super Bowl entrants, the 2011 New England Patriots and the 2011 New York Giants.

The Tournament of Past Champions games are played using the What If Sports SimMatchups software (try it for yourself here) that allows you to simulate historical games as many times as you would like with teams using different “offensive playbooks” while competing in both home, away or neutral game sites. To determine the title defense results, each matchup will be based on the result of 20 head-to-head simulations.

For example, to decide who would prevail – the 1959 Baltimore Colts or the 2009 Indianapolis Colts, 20 game simulations will be run – 10 at the home stadium of the ’59 Colts and 10 at the home stadium of the 2009 Colts.

Each of those 10 simulations will be broken down into “playbook” matchups in order to better gauge the overall strength and weaknesses of each team taking part in the tournament. The What If Sports game engine provides four separate playbook options – Balanced, Run Heavy, Pass Heavy and West Coast style. Over the course of a single, 20-game sim matchup, teams will play eight Balanced sims, four Pass Heavy sims, four Run Heavy sims and four West Coast style sims.

The final score for each team in the virtual matchup will be the average of the team’s scores over the course of all 20 simulations. The higher average “wins” the virtual matchup. In case teams are tied after 20 simulations, an additional 10 overtime sims, five at each team’s home stadium, will be played until one winner emerges. 

Results for each virtual matchup are recorded as follows:

                                                          

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		1959 Baltimore Colts	7	7	10	0	24
		2009 Indianapolis Colts	7	7	0	7	21
		*Baltimore won 14 of 20 simulations

Now, without further ado, the 1999 St. Louis Rams defend their Tournament of Past Champions title against this year’s Super Bowl teams…

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2011 New England Patriots

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		2011 New England Patriots	7	7	0	0	14
		1999 St. Louis Rams	7	7	14	3	31
		*St. Louis won 18 of 20 simulations

   
            The Patriots held strong through halftime, but could not keep pace with the high-flying Rams who dominated the second half by outscoring New England 17-0.  

1999 St. Louis Rams vs 2011 New York Giants

			1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
		2011 New York Giants	3	3	7	7	20
		1999 St. Louis Rams	14	7	7	3	31
		*St. Louis won 16 of 20 simulations

            The Giants fared slightly better against the Rams than the Patriots, but fell into an early 14-3 hole at the end of the first quarter. Despite scoring two second half touchdowns, the Rams proved to be too much for the Giants.

Congratulations again to the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

Still Creative Misfortune’s reigning Champion of Champions.

           


On Friday, the final blog announcement of Creative Misfortune’s second season…

Season Recap - 2011 Super Bowl Champion New York Giants

Final Record: 9-7 (4-0)

Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC East; Super Bowl XLVI Champions
2012 Draft Position: 32^nd

Preseason Ranking: 10

Week 1: Lost at the Washington Redskins, 28-14
    Ranked - 25
    Did the Redskins surprise the Giants on Sunday? It sure seemed like New York had no idea what to expect from their revamped rivals.

Week 2: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 28-16
    Ranked - 19
    Sloppy wins are still wins. Manning has been careless with the football and had the Rams not gift-wrapped so many points for the Giants on Monday, the game easily could have slipped away from New York. Against Philadelphia they will have to play turnover-free football if they hope to keep pace in the hotly-contested NFC East.

Week 3: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 29-16
    Ranked - 12
    Note to self: You are the Manning of the league now. Make the family proud. Signed, Eli Manning.

Week 4: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 31-27
    Ranked - 11
    Could Little Manning be the man now? Sure, he's won a Super Bowl, but until he wins another one, or Peyton retires, he will not be able to shake the "immature" label.

Week 5: Lost to the Seattle Seahawks, 36-25
    Ranked - 15
    The Seahawks? Seriously. The Giants could be the cream of the NFC East crop with Philadelphia's failings, but they need to win games like this if they hope to make it to the playoffs.

Week 6: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 27-24
    Ranked - 16     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Following the Giants gritty victory over the Buffalo Bills]
    New York Reporter #1: The last time I saw Coach Coughlin like this we were at the Super Bowl. He was very close to achieving his life's ambition. I've never seen him so excited. He was as giddy as a schoolboy.
    Eli Manning: Who, Atilla The Coach? He was never giddy, even when he was a schoolboy.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 14
    The NFC East is theirs to lose at this point, but the Giants still have a long way to go before they get to the playoffs.

Week 8: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 20-17
    Ranked - 13
    Warning: The high-flying Eagles are closer than they appear.

Week 9: Defeated the New England Patriots, 24-20
    Ranked - 14
    The Giants have collapsed before, but after that gritty win in New England, even they will be hard pressed to let the division slip away from them this season.

Week 10: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 27-20
    Ranked - 15
    New York controls the NFC East for now, but they've been known to collapse in seasons past.

Week 11: Lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 17-10
    Ranked - 15
    The Giants are better than they looked against Philadelphia… but the next two games against New Orleans and Green Bay could kill their postseason hopes.

Week 12: Lost at the New Orleans Saints, 49-24
    Ranked - 17
    This defense is not good enough to slow teams down… and the offense is not quite explosive enough to win high-scoring shoot-outs.

Week 13: Lost to the Green Bay Packers, 38-35
    Ranked - 17
    Despite four straight losses, the Giants still control their own destiny with two games still remaining against division-leading Dallas.

Week 14: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 37-34
    Ranked - 12
    Gritty play by Eli and the defensive line has the Giants back in control of their own destiny. More's the pity, I say.

Week 15: Lost to the Washington Redskins, 23-10
    Ranked - 18
    I love the Giants' ability to consistently collapse in December. They are like the anti-Chargers.

Week 16: Defeated the New York Jets, 29-14
    Ranked - 11
    By all rights the Giants should already be eliminated… but talk of December collapses will vanish if New York can win at home to take the NFC East crown.

Week 17: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 31-14
    Ranked - 11
    The Giants are the worst NFC East champion in recent memory, but if their defensive line can continue to wreck havoc with opposing offensive lines, they could upset some of the NFC's elite… if they can get by Atlanta this weekend.

Wild Card Round: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 24-2
    Ranked - 7
    Could the Giants become the first team to knock off a 15-1 team in the Divisional round? They already have the defeat of an 18-0 team in the Super Bowl on their resume.

Divisional Round: Defeated the Green Bay Packers, 37-20
    Ranked - 3
    The Giants are this season's version of the 2010 Packers. How fitting is it that they ruined Green Bay's championship hopes? If they win in San Francisco, they will be able to relive either their greatest Super Bowl triumph or their worst Super Bowl failure. Either way, I'm sure there will be a story in there somewhere.

Championship Round: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 20-17
    Ranked - 2
    Like back in 2007, the Giants have nothing to lose and have been playing in survival mode since late in the regular season. Nobody will be surprised if they knock off the Patriots again, just like nobody will be surprised if the Patriots crush them on the biggest stage. With nothing to lose, teams often find a way to win.

Super Bowl XLVI: Defeated the New England Patriots, 21-17


Final Ranking: 1

Tomorrow, the 1999 St. Louis Rams defend their Tournament of Past Champions title against the 2011 New York Giants and the 2011 New England Patriots. Will either of these conference champions be able to slow down The Greatest Show on Turf?

Season Recap - 2011 New England Patriots

Final Record: 13-3 (2-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the AFC East; AFC Champions; Lost Super Bowl XLVI
2012 Draft Position: 31^st

Preseason Ranking: 7

Week 1: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 38-24
    Ranked - 2
    Why aren't the Patriots ranked #1 after their awe-inspiring offensive performance on Monday night? The defense allowed Miami's Chad Henne to look like a poor man's copy of Tom Brady. If the Patriots hope to challenge for another Super Bowl title, they better figure out how to stop opposing offenses. Even the greatest offenses can't win every game 38-34... just ask the 2007 Patriots.

Week 2: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 35-21
    Ranked - 1
    Until they are beaten, the Patriots remain the team to beat in the NFL. Belichick's cutthroat tactics, even when they fail (see 4th and 4 from midfield against the Chargers with only a six point lead), still seem to have other coaches shaking in their boots. The Evil Empire is alive and well, though regular season success has been nothing new of late for the Patriots. It's playoff victories they need to secure before everybody should really fear that New England is back to their Super Bowl winning ways.

Week 3: Lost at the Buffalo Bills, 34-31
    Ranked - 4
    Note to self: Four touchdowns, good. Four interceptions, bad. If possible, pick up a running game before next week. Signed, Tom Brady.

Week 4: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 31-19
    Ranked - 4
    With the stumbling of Buffalo and New York last week, the Patriots are in perfect position to take back control of the AFC East. Now if they could just find a defense…

Week 5: Defeated the New York Jets, 30-21
    Ranked - 5
    New England's offense is scary good, but until the defense starts shutting teams down, opponents will have hope.

Week 6: Defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 20-16
    Ranked - 4     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Commissioner Goodell: Now what does this Brady look like?
    Rich Eisen: Uh… there’s a picture of him right here. [Opens a GQ magazine on the table and places it before the Commissioner] That’s him.
    Commissioner Goodell: Good God!
    Rich Eisen: Yes, that’s just what the cornerbacks thought.
    Commissioner Goodell: [pointing to a beam of light surrounding a football as it leaves Brady's hand] Uh, now what’s that supposed to be coming out of there?
    Rich Eisen: Lightning. Fire. Power of God or something.
    Commissioner Goodell: I am beginning to understand Belichick's interest in him.
    Rich Eisen: Oh, yes. The NFL Gamebooks speak of Brady leveling linebackers and laying waste to entire secondaries. A football team that starts Brady at quarterback… is invincible.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 3
    Out of the bye week and on the road to Pittsburgh - a place where the Patriots have done quite well in the past 10 years. We'll see how well they made use of their extra week to prepare.

Week 8: Lost at the Pittsburgh Steelers, 25-17
    Ranked - 6
    If New England can't figure out how to beat press coverage and aggressive bump-and-run tactics, the brilliant start to their season will become just a distant memory.

Week 9: Lost to the New York Giants, 24-20
    Ranked - 8
    Seriously? What happened to the defensive genius that is Bill Belichick?

Week 10: Defeated the New York Jets, 37-16
    Ranked - 5
    A big win over the Jets has given the Patriots some of their momentum back.

Week 11: Defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 34-3
    Ranked - 4
    New England seems to have figured out how to play defense. If they could just get their offense back on track…

Week 12: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-20
    Ranked - 3
    If the Patriots continue to play solid defense few teams will be able to match Brady and Co in a shoot-out.

Week 13: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 31-24
    Ranked - 6
    Did Belichick call off the dogs against Indianapolis last week after building an early lead or did the Colts actually shut this high-powered offense down in the second half?

Week 14: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 34-27
    Ranked - 5
    The Patriots are a win away from clinching the division, but Brady better keep on throwing the ball if New England hopes to gain a bye-week advantage.

Week 15: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 41-23
    Ranked - 2
    Doesn’t it kind of feel like the Patriots killed Christmas when they defeated the Broncos last week and laughed at Tebow's fourth quarter magic?

Week 16: Defeated the Miami Dolphins, 27-24
    Ranked - 4
    The best team in the AFC finds ways to win, but there are still a lot of holes in their defense.

Week 17: Defeated the Buffalo Bills, 49-21
    Ranked - 4
    Despite their defensive woes, the path to the AFC championship has to go through Foxboro.

Wild Card Round: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 3
    Is this weekend's game against Denver the epitome of a "Good vs Evil' matchup in the NFL

Divisional Round: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 45-10
    Ranked - 1
    Is it just me or did Tom Brady come out against Denver in full on F-U mode? He played cold-blooded... upset that in the year he breaks Dan Marino's passing record, Drew Brees broke it better... when he played lights out during the regular season, Aaron Rodgers - star of the fallen Packers - will most likely win the MVP award... despite winning three Super Bowls already, nary a word was said about him leading up to the match up against the Broncos - it was all Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. A record six touchdown passes later, five in the first half, and suddenly Brady was back in the spotlight and nothing but questions surrounded Tebow's future in the NFL. Unless his defense fails him, a la Green Bay and New Orleans, Brady will likely lead the Patriots to a fourth Super Bowl title.

Championship Round: Defeated the Baltimore Ravens, 23-20
    Ranked - 1
    Tom Brady now has the chance to become the all-time winningest quarterback in playoff history and also has the chance to win his fourth Super Bowl title, further separating himself from the other quarterbacks of his era. All he has to do is get past a scary good defensive front that has keyed three straight road victories in the playoffs. But how sweet would revenge be for the Patriots if they won their fourth Super Bowl title avenging their loss in Super Bowl XLII?

Super Bowl XLVI: Lost to the New York Giants, 21-17


Final Ranking: 2


Tomorrow, the 2011 Super Bowl Champion New York Giants...

Season Recap - 2011 San Francisco 49ers

Final Record: 13-3 (1-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC West; Lost in the NFC Championship Game
2012 Draft Position: 30^th

Preseason Ranking: 30

Week 1: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 33-17
    Ranked - 8
    Two late return touchdowns made this game look like a blow-out, but the 49ers were close to blowing a fourth quarter lead against the Seahawks. A win is a win, but until the NFC West teams start defeating powers in the other divisions, these kinds of victories will remain necessary, but hollow.

Week 2: Lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 27-24
    Ranked - 12
    The 49ers. The best team in the NFC West. That isn’t saying much. A total collapse against Dallas on Sunday can't do much for their confidence, either, with the latest reports that Romo beat them with broken ribs and a punctured lung.

Week 3: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 13-8
    Ranked - 8
    Note to self: Now you are following in Walsh's footsteps. He beat the Bengals twice, you know. Signed, Jim Harbaugh.

Week 4: Defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, 24-23
    Ranked - 8
    A huge comeback win over the Eagles, combined with the overall ineptness of the other NFC West teams has the 49ers suddenly believing in themselves.

Week 5: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 48-3
    Ranked - 4
    The 49ers completely demolished the upstart Bucs last weekend. San Francisco looks like they are finally coming into their own, although this is a year later than expected.

Week 6: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 25-19
    Ranked - 3     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [At dinner following the explosive ending to the San Francisco-Detroit game]
    Coach Jim Harbaugh: How odd that it should end this way for us after so many stimulating encounters. I almost regret it. Where shall I find a new adversary so close to my own level?
    Coach Jim Schwartz: Try the local sewer.

Week 7: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 2
    The 49ers aren’t there yet, but as the best team in the NFC West they are definitely well on their way.

Week 8: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 20-10
    Ranked - 2
    The 49ers are playing well and would be undefeated but for their early season mental lapse against the Cowboys.

Week 9: Defeated the Washington Redskins, 19-11
    Ranked - 2
    Undefeated on the East Coast, the 49ers are rising above the muck that is the NFC West.

Week 10: Defeated the New York Giants, 27-20
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco will be the first team to clinch a division title. Now they need to focus on gaining home field advantage throughout the playoffs, because nobody wants to play at Lambeau in January.

Week 11: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 23-7
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco is playing solid football and, with the division all but wrapped up, securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs should be their goal the remainder of the regular season.

Week 12: Lost at the Baltimore Ravens, 16-6
    Ranked - 6
    The 49ers looked out-of-sorts last Thursday for the first time all season. In the NFC West, they should be fine, but one-and-done in the playoffs certainly looks like a more realistic possibility now.

Week 13: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 26-0
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco probably won't be able to catch Green Bay for the best overall record in the NFC, but they should keep hold of their bye-week positioning.

Week 14: Lost at the Arizona Cardinals, 21-19
    Ranked - 7
    Two losses in the last three weeks have hurt the 49ers. A trip to Pittsburgh should do little to help them recover their early-season form.

Week 15: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-3
    Ranked - 4
    I'm still not sold on the 49ers being able to defeat either the Saints or the Packers. Realistically, for them to reach the Super Bowl, they will have to beat them both.

Week 16: Defeated the Seattle Seahawks, 19-17
    Ranked - 3
    A win over the hapless Rams is all the 49ers need to clinch a first-round bye.

Week 17: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 34-27
    Ranked - 3
    The 49ers better pull the game film for the recent Chiefs-Packers game and make note of everything Kansas City did to derail the defending champs. San Francisco will need every one of those tricks if they are to have any chance of knocking off the Saints and the Packers. Chances are they will have to defeat both - or at least one - of those elite teams in order to get to the Super Bowl.

Wild Card Round: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 4
    This weekend we will get to see just how good the 49ers defense really is. If they can hold Brees and Co to less than 24 points, San Francisco will have a chance to advance to their first championship game since the '90s.

Divisional Round: Defeated the New Orleans Saints, 36-32
    Ranked - 2
    San Francisco has gone back to the basics of fundamental football and the 49ers sit just one game away from another Super Bowl appearance. If their defense can frustrate the Giants like their offense might be frustrated by the Giants' defense, we could be in for a scintillating 6-3 game.

Championship Round: Lost to the New York Giants, 20-17


Final Ranking: 3


Season recaps close out next week with the Super Bowl XLVI teams, starting with the 2011 AFC Champion New England Patriots...

Season Recap - 2011 Baltimore Ravens

Final Record: 12-4 (1-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the AFC North; Lost in the AFC Championship Game
2012 Draft Position: 29^th

Preseason Ranking: 8

Week 1: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 35-7
    Ranked - 1
    Offensive prowess, defensive grit and a huge, media-touted monkey off their backs. Not only did the Ravens defeat the AFC champions from a year ago, they humiliated the Steelers by forcing 7 turnovers and dominated all aspects of the game. The division is Baltimore's to lose.

Week 2: Lost at the Tennessee Titans, 26-13
    Ranked - 8
    It's a little early in the season for the curse of the Creative Elite #1 to rear its ugly head, but, man did it ever. As good as the Ravens looked when they dominated the Steelers in week one, Baltimore looked just as bad and confused in their week two loss to Tennessee. A loss like this should wake them up and I expect them to head to St. Louis with a chip on their shoulder and a desire to show that their embarassing game last week was nothing but a momentary lapse of focus.

Week 3: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 37-7
    Ranked - 3
    Note to self: Recipe for success - Passing opens up the running game. Running opens up the passing game. The defense crushes the opposition. Quothe the Raven.

Week 4: Defeated the New York Jets, 34-17
    Ranked - 2
    Not many defensive struggles end up being so high scoring. Sure, the offense has issues, but when the defense can outscore its own offense 21-13, you just might have the potential to go deep into the playoffs.

Week 5: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 3
    Baltimore faces a tough test coming out of their bye week against Houston, but they should be fresh enough to hold off the Texans and maintain their slim division lead.

Week 6: Defeated the Houston Texans, 29-14
    Ranked - 2     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Mocking rookie quarterback Blain Gabbert after a sack]
    Ray Lewis: I'm like a bad penny, I always turn up.

Week 7: Lost at the Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-7
    Ranked - 5
    In four wins, the Ravens have been stellar. In their two losses, Baltimore has looked about as bad as a team can look. What gives?

Week 8: Defeated the Arizona Cardinals, 30-27
    Ranked - 3
    The Ravens shouldn’t have needed such a dramatic comeback to beat the Cardinals… but great teams overcome adversity like that.

Week 9: Defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers, 23-20
    Ranked - 3
    That huge victory over the Steelers in Pittsburgh should propel Baltimore into the playoffs… if they can just hold off the surprising Bengals.

Week 10: Lost at the Seattle Seahawks, 22-17
    Ranked - 4
    That's twice now the Ravens have played way down to their opponent's level. Keep it up and Baltimore's season will come to a tragic end sooner rather than later.

Week 11: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 31-24
    Ranked - 5
    Baltimore will have their work cut out for them when the 49ers come to town Thanksgiving Night. If they can win, there should be no stopping them the rest of the season.

Week 12: Defeated the San Francisco 49ers, 16-6
    Ranked - 4
    A statement win over the 49ers keeps Baltimore in control of their own destiny.

Week 13: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 24-10
    Ranked - 4
    A power running game and strong defensive play often mean the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs. Baltimore has both.

Week 14: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 24-10
    Ranked - 2
    At this point, Baltimore is the best team in the AFC.

Week 15: Lost at the San Diego Chargers, 34-14
    Ranked - 5
    The Ravens gained a reprieve since the Steelers lost, but they are looking more and more like a team that will struggle on the road. All the more reason for them to win out so they are guaranteed to host at least one playoff game.

Week 16: Defeated the Cleveland Browns, 20-14
    Ranked - 5
    How sad would it be if the Ravens swept the Steelers and still lost the division title?

Week 17: Defeated the Cincinnati Bengals, 24-16
    Ranked - 5
    The Ravens have a strong-defense and home-field advantage unless they face the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. If they can avoid the Steelers they might just make it to the Super Bowl.

Wild Card Round: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 5
    Baltimore has had a week to rest up and now, with the Steelers eliminated, they don’t have to worry about facing their divisional rivals in the playoffs.

Divisional Round: Defeated the Houston Texans, 20-13
    Ranked - 4
    The Ravens may have the defense to stop the Patriots… but they don't have the offense to do much more than grind out a 17-14 victory.

Championship Round: Lost at the New England Patriots, 23-20


Final Ranking: 4


Tomorrow, the 2011 San Francisco 49ers...

Season Recap - 2011 Green Bay Packers

Final Record: 15-1 (0-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC North; Lost in the Divisional Round
2012 Draft Position: 28^th

Preseason Ranking: 3

Week 1: Defeated the New Orleans Saints, 42-34
    Ranked - 4
    One yard and a 2-point conversion and everybody would have forgotten all about how great the Packers offense was and how their defense blew the opening game against the Saints. If Green Bay can only achieve victory against the upstart Panthers this weekend by a similar slim margin, Green Bay will be hard pressed to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Week 2: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 30-23
    Ranked - 4
    The Packers may still be the best team in the NFL, but two straight near-misses - an excusable one against the Saints, a surprising one against the Panthers - give me enough pause to wonder when they will stumble first. Will it be in Chicago this weekend or in their first game against Detroit down the road?

Week 3: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 27-17
    Ranked - 1
    Note to self: Defense wins championships and we are more than just a flashy offense. Signed, Clay Matthews.

Week 4: Defeated the Denver Broncos, 49-23
    Ranked - 1
    Until they finally lose a game, there is no reason to believe the Packers will fall short of another Super Bowl title.

Week 5: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 25-14
    Ranked - 1
    Until Green Bay loses, will anybody doubt that they are the best team in the NFL? Nothing changes that perception this week win the winless Rams travel to Lambeau.

Week 6: Defeated the St. Louis Rams, 24-3
    Ranked - 1     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    Aaron Rodgers: You did it, didn't you?
    Ted Thompson, Packers GM: The fans want you to go for it. They want you to get a hold of the championship before the AFC does and they are prepaid to pay handsomely.
    Aaron Rodgers: And the museum at Lambeau? They get the Lombardi trophy when this is all finished?
    Ted Thompson: Oh, yes. You know, I'm really rather envious. 10 years ago I would have gone after the undefeated season myself with Favre.
    Aaron Rodgers: I just have to locate 13 more wins along the way. I think I know where to start. [Pauses] Do you think the Vikings will trip me up?
    Ted Thompson: Possibly. But the Vikings are the least of your worries right now, believe me, Aaron.
    Aaron Rodgers: What do you mean?
    Ted Thompson: Well, I mean that for nearly 40 years teams have been striving for the undefeated season. It’s not something to be taken lightly. No one knows if it’s possible now. It’s like nothing you’ve ever gone after before.
    Aaron Rodgers: [laughing] Oh, Thompson. What are you trying to do, scare me? You sound like my mother. We’ve known each other for a long time. I don’t believe in magic, a lot of superstitious hocus pocus. I’m going after a season of incredible historical significance and you’re talking about the boogie man. Besides, [unwraps a copy of the Packers playbook and throws it into his suitcase on top of his championship belt] you know what a cautious fellow I am.

Week 7: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 33-27
    Ranked - 1
    Nothing like a 20-point third quarter on the road against a division rival to solidify Green Bay as the #1 team in the league.

Week 8: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 1
    Until they lose, the Packers have to be expected to win.

Week 9: Defeated the San Diego Chargers, 45-38
    Ranked - 1
    Short yardage downs and a defense willing to bend, but not necessarily break, between the 20s may be the only things that will prevent Green Bay from finishing the season undefeated.

Week 10: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 45-7
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers continue to make it look easy and remain the class of the NFL.

Week 11: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 35-26
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers face their greatest challenge of the season when they travel to Detroit to face the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Week 12: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 27-15
    Ranked - 1
    When the Packers clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they better learn from the Indianapolis Colts and play lights out to be perfect.

Week 13: Defeated the New York Giants, 38-35
    Ranked - 1
    We will know Green Bay is unstoppable if they ever win a game 10-7. Despite being undefeated, are the Packers capable of winning a close, defensive struggle?

Week 14: Defeated the Oakland Raiders, 46-16
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers are playing at a level other teams can only dream about.

Week 15: Lost at the Kansas City Chiefs, 19-14
    Ranked - 1
    The Packers can try and spin their loss to the Chiefs any way they want, but the bottom line is they missed out on a chance to make history. If all it takes is a power running game to take them out, Green Bay's next loss very well may kill any Super Bowl dreams they have.

Week 16: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 35-21
    Ranked - 1
    With nothing substantial left to play for, having already clinched a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Packers just have to decide if they would prefer the Lions to go into the playoffs as the #6 seed or the #5 seed.

Week 17: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 45-41
    Ranked - 1
    How scary are the Packers if their backup quarterback can go off against another playoff-caliber team for 480 yards and 6 TDs?

Wild Card Round: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 1
    No team has ever finished the regular season 15-1 and lost their first game at home. It is hard to imagine this Packers team becoming the first in NFL history to do so.

Divisional Round: Lost to the New York Giants, 37-20


Final Ranking: 5


Tomorrow, the 2011 Baltimore Ravens...

Season Recap - 2011 New Orleans Saints

Final Record: 13-3 (1-1)
Finished: 1^st Place in the NFC South; Lost in the Divisional Round
2012 Draft Position: 27^th

Preseason Ranking: 2

Week 1: Lost at the Green Bay Packers, 42-34
    Ranked - 17
    Stopped just short of victory, the goal line stand by the Packers could very well come back to haunt the Saints when they have to board a plane in late January bound for the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field for a rematch.

Week 2: Defeated the Chicago Bears, 30-13
    Ranked - 10
    New Orleans, so close to knocking off Green Bay, left no doubt that they were better than Chicago with a solid victory before the home fans. Now they need to stay true at home and knock off the Texans this week in order to stay tied for first place with the winner of the Falcons-Buccaneers game.

Week 3: Defeated the Houston Texans, 40-33
    Ranked - 6
    Note to self: All we have to do is stay one point ahead of the other guys and then everything will be fine. Signed, Drew Brees.

Week 4: Defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, 23-10
    Ranked - 6
    Drew Brees finally has the offense clicking and with the defense showing signs of life, the Saints are in perfect position to regain the division title they lost last season.

Week 5: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 30-27
    Ranked - 6
    New Orleans can open up a huge lead in the NFC South if they take out the Bucs on Sunday in Tampa Bay. With all their division foes stung by recent losses, the division is theirs to lose.

Week 6: Lost at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 26-20
    Ranked - 6     Indiana Jones Style Recap
    [Congratulating Coach Raheem Morris on Tampa Bay's victory following the game]
    Coach Sean Payton: Next time, Raheem, it will take more than my broken leg to save you.

Week 7: Defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 62-7
    Ranked - 4
    Way to shut down the offense late in the third quarter. No need to subject the stars to unnecessary punishment when the game has already been decided and the stats have been accumulated.

Week 8: Lost at the St. Louis Rams, 31-21
    Ranked - 8
    Even good teams have off days. I'll give the Saints a pass on their loss in St. Louis last week… if they are able to beat the Buccaneers this weekend.

Week 9: Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27-16
    Ranked - 7
    The Saints evened their score with the Bucs and now only really have the Falcons to contend with for the division title.

Week 10: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 26-23
    Ranked - 7
    The Saints can rest easy during the bye week now that they have complete control over their own destiny.

Week 11: BYE WEEK
    Ranked - 7
    An extra day of rest should have the Saints ready to make a run for the playoffs.

Week 12: Defeated the New York Giants, 49-24
    Ranked - 5
    Brees is on fire and now that all the running backs are healthy, the Saints have added additional versatility to their potent offense.

Week 13: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 31-17
    Ranked - 5
    Until the Saints catch up with the 49ers, Drew Brees has no reason not to keep chasing Dan Marino's passing records.

Week 14: Defeated the Tennessee Titans, 22-17
    Ranked - 4
    The 49ers have stumbled and with games remaining against Minnesota, Atlanta and Carolina, New Orleans is primed to steal the NFC's remaining first-round bye.

Week 15: Defeated the Minnesota Vikings, 42-20
    Ranked - 3
    For my money, the NFC is a two-team race between the Saints and the Packers. On a neutral field, I think the Saints win. Unfortunately it looks like Drew Brees will have to learn to throw the ball in the snow as a date with the Packers in Green Bay looks like the road New Orleans will have to travel to make it to Super Bowl XLVI.

Week 16: Defeated the Atlanta Falcons, 45-16
    Ranked - 2
    The Saints' record-setting peformance on Monday should make a possible Wild Card rematch with Atlanta very interesting.

Week 17: Defeated the Carolina Panthers, 45-17
    Ranked - 2
    The Saints are the only NFC team that can match the Packers in a shoot-out, but they will have to win a couple road games on grass if they hope to return to the Super Bowl.

Wild Card Round: Defeated the Detroit Lions, 45-28
    Ranked - 2
    The high-flying Saints have been perfect at home, but now we get to see what they can do outside, on grass, in front of a hostile crowd.

Divisional Round: Lost at the San Francisco 49ers, 36-32


Final Ranking: 6

Tomorrow, the 2011 Green Bay Packers...