A stable slate of games with few surprises results in most systems having a solid week. Blindly Picking the team with the best record resulted in a near perfect 13 out of 15 picks correct. Creative Misfortune followed with a close second, hitting on 80% of my picks for the first time all season. Once this season I'd like to win a prediction week on my own blog!
Thursday Night Game Result:
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (Actual ~ Chicago, 16-0)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Chicago, 20-17. The Bears believe in themselves, even if nobody else does. On a short week against Tyler Thigpen, they should be able to steal a victory in South Florida.
Scottie V's Pick: Miami, 24-17. I still don't buy the Bears.
Vegas Lines Pick: Miami, 21-19. Miami by 1.5, Over/Under 40.
Accuscore Pick: Miami, 20-17. Miami 53% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago won 2 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17. Chicago better at 6-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Miami, 20-17
The swarming Bears defense completely shut down the Dolphins, allowing a mere 187 yards of total offense. Chicago forced Tyler Thigpen to try and win the game on his own after the Dolphins running backs combined for just 12 yards rushing. Thigpen himself had over twice that much. Despite the total dud of a game, Chicago shows they just might be for real, even if none of their wins so far have exhibited the same flash and style of other elite NFL teams. With a mixed bag of predictions, Creative Misfortune, What If Sports and blindly picking the team with the best record all come up winners.
Sunday Game Results:
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (Actual ~ Buffalo, 49-31)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cincinnati, 27-20. When the stoppable force hits the moveable object, Cincinnati's garbage time offense will roll at home.
Scottie V's Pick: Cincinnati, 23-20. The Bills winning streak stops at one game as TO surges.
Vegas Lines Pick: Cincinnati, 26-20. Cincinnati by 5.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Cincinnati, 24-10. Cincinnati 70% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cincinnati, 27-14. Cincinnati won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17. Cincinnati better at 2-7.
Home Team Wins Pick: Cincinnati, 20-17
Cincinnati completely blows another game at home and collapses on defense in the second half. Buffalo extends their winning streak to two straight games after exploding for 35 unanswered second half points. All systems end up having way too much faith in a Bengals team that has shown no ability whatsoever this season to play an entire four quarters.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (Actual ~ Dallas, 35-19)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Dallas, 27-17. Rejuvenated and suddenly remembering how to play, Dallas will win at home and keep their faint, non-existent playoff hopes alive.
Scottie V's Pick: Dallas, 27-21. I must say I was really surprised at the Cowboy turnaround last week... It should continue this week at home with the Lions coming to town.
Vegas Lines Pick: Dallas, 27-20. Dallas by 6.5, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: Dallas, 24-10. Dallas 68% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Detroit, 20-14. Detroit won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17. Both teams at 2-7, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17
The Jason Garrett era in Dallas continues to go well as the Cowboys, after falling behind early, blow up the Lions in the second half. Ten games into the 2010 season Dallas finally wins a game in the billion dollar house that Jerry built. Their season is still all but mathematically over, but compared to other 3-7 teams (*cough* Vikings *cough*), Dallas looks like they are at least moving in the right direction. Only What If Sports picked Dallas to lose again at home, while all other systems picked up the easy victory.
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Washington, 19-16 OT)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tennessee, 23-17. The Redskins quit last week until they realized they might go down in history as beaten chumps. Their downward spiral continues when they travel to face an angry Titans team.
Scottie V's Pick: Tennessee, 24-16. Wow, just when you thought the Cowboys were the biggest mess in the NFL... Hello, Washington!
Vegas Lines Pick: Tennessee, 27-17. Tennessee by 7, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Tennessee, 28-9. Tennessee 77% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 23-21. Tennessee won 2 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17. Tennessee better at 5-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17
It looks like the on-again, off-again Vince Young-era in Tennessee has come to an end. Coach Fisher announced following the disappointing loss to the Redskins that Young would no longer be the starter. Tantrums, poor performance and an injury have all contributed to Young's benching. For their part, Washington recovers nicely from a historic beatdown and steals a much-needed victory on the road from a Titans team that has suddenly lost its way. All systems fail as Washington gets the upset.
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (Actual ~ Kansas City, 31-13)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Kansas City, 26-10. The Chiefs are suddenly in a fight out in the West and will lose all credibility if they fall at home to the Cardinals.
Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 31-17. The Chiefs bounce back from their shellacking in Denver last week... Arizona is a bad football team.
Vegas Lines Pick: Kansas City, 27-17. Kansas City by 8, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Kansas City, 24-10. Kansas City 68% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Kansas City, 31-20. Kansas City won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 5-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17
The Chiefs take a one game lead in the AFC West and remained unbeaten at home with a 31-13 drubbing of the Cardinals. Dwayne Bowe sets a team record with his sixth consecutive game scoring at least one touchdown. Both Scottie V and What If Sports get half the score perfect, but all systems come away with a win.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Actual ~ Green Bay, 31-3)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 27-24. Green Bay makes good on the opportunity to both banish the fading, purple-colored Brett Favre from their collective psyche and knock their division rivals out of playoff contention.
Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 27-14. Speaking of bad football teams... The Vikes are a swiftly sinking ship.
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 24-20. Green Bay by 3, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 17-16. Green Bay 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Green Bay, 20-14. Green Bay won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay better at 6-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Minnesota, 20-17
The Vikings season, if it wasn't over last week, is over now. The hated Green Bay Packers, led by Favre's replacement, Aaron Rodgers, destroy the Vikings in the Metrodome and dominate the game from start to finish. The drama intensifies in Minnesota as the "Fire Childress" chants and the calls for Brett Favre to go back home swirl about the Vikings. Only blindly picking the home team results in a failure for this epic Vikings debacle, though no prediction system foresaw Green Bay's 28-point victory.
Houston Texans at New York Jets (Actual ~ New York, 30-27)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 26-21. Houston's playoff hopes may have died after last week's Hail Mary. Traveling to New York will not resurrect their season.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 20-16. Houston is still reeling from the batted Hail Mary from last week... The Jets don't offer any sympathy
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 28-20. New York by 7, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: New York, 24-13. NY Jets 66% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 27-17. New York won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 7-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17
The Jets once again pull victory from the jaws of certain defeat and put another nail in the Texans' coffin. Houston battled back from a 16-point deficit in the fourth quater, but their defense let them down once again when the Sanchize connected with Braylon Edwards for a long pass in the final seconds of the game. All prediction systems get another win thanks to the cardiac heroics of the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!
Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (Actual ~ Baltimore, 37-13)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Baltimore, 31-10. The Ravens are rested and angry.
Scottie V's Pick: Baltimore, 24-10. Carolina is a bad football team right now.
Vegas Lines Pick: Baltimore, 24-13. Baltimore by 10, Over/Under 37.5.
Accuscore Pick: Baltimore, 31-6. Baltimore 84% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Baltimore, 23-20. Baltimore won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Baltimore, 20-17. Baltimore better at 6-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina, 20-17
The Ravens keep it close until outstanding defensive play late in the fourth quarter buries the Panthers and ruins the Carolina debut of quarterback Brian St. Pierre. With the outcome a foregone conclusion, only blindly picking the home team misses on this game as Carolina's dismal, injury-riddled season shows no signs of improving. Baltimore keeps pace with the Steelers and maintains their share of the AFC North lead.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual ~ Jacksonville, 24-20)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cleveland, 23-14. The Browns have held their own against some of the league's best teams. They break through for another win against a Jaguars team still riding the emotional high from last week's miracle toss.
Scottie V's Pick: Jacksonville, 23-17. This should be an interesting game... I'm giving the home team the nod.
Vegas Lines Pick: Jacksonville, 23-21. Jacksonville by 1.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 23-14. Jacksonville 63% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 24-21. Cleveland won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 5-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17
Like the Jets, Jacksonville steals another victory in the final moments of a game, improves to a surprising 6-4 and has pulled even with the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South standings. Cleveland shows signs of greatness in nearly pulling out a win on the road, but falls short once again. Only Creative Misfortune and What If Sports missed out as all other systems have faith in Jacksonville winning at home.
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Pittsburgh, 35-3)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 17-14. The Steelers can't drop two straight at home, can they? CAN THEY?
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-14. The Steelers are too good to drop 2 in a row at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 26-17. Pittsburgh by 7, Over/Under 41.5.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-10. Pittsburgh 68% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 21-17. Pittsburgh won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 6-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
One week after being demolished by the Patriots, Pittsburgh takes their frustrations out on a Raiders team that had everything going for them. Raiders defensive lineman Richard Seymour was ejected from the game after punching Ben Roethlisberger in the face mask, but Oakland shows little life otherwise as the Steelers control the game from start to finish. All systems pick correctly again, but no system sees the Raiders being blown out by 32 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (Actual ~ Tampa Bay, 21-0)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tampa Bay, 28-24. The Bucs are rolling and the 49ers are just self-destructive enough for Tampa Bay to win one on the road.
Scottie V's Pick: San Francisco, 20-17. With Troy Smith at the helm, the 49ers seem a much more confident bunch.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco, 24-20. San Francisco by 3.5, Over/Under 41.5.
Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 17-16. San Francisco 51% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 20-17. San Francisco won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 6-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco, 20-17
Tampa Bay travels across the country and slams the door on San Francisco's playoff hopes. Sure, the 49ers are still in it in the woeful NFC West, but if they had any spirit at all left in them, they would not have been manhandled by a young Buccaneers team that was not on anybody's radar before the season. Only Creative Misfortune and blindly picking the team with the best record picked this game correctly.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (Actual ~ New Orleans, 34-19)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 34-17. The Saints defense will give Seattle more than it can handle and the Saints offense will light up the scoreboard for the home crowd.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 30-14. Too much firepower, a bye week, and homefield advantage are too much overcome for the 'Hawks.
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 28-16. New Orleans by 11.5, Over/Under 44.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 31-3. New Orleans 87% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 24-13. New Orleans won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 6-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17
Drew Brees lights up the Seahawks secondary and Marques Colston makes me regret not starting him in my fantasy league. New Orleans rolls at home over the best team in the NFC West - which isn't saying much - and keeps pace with the NFC-leading Atlanta Falcons. All systems get a victory by favoring New Orleans, but only Creative Misfortune almost pulls out the perfect pick with my 34-17 offering.
Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams (Actual ~ Atlanta, 34-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 27-13. The Falcons are playing like one of the best teams in the league now. The best teams in the league don't lose when they travel to St. Louis.
Scottie V's Pick: Atlanta, 24-17. The Rams are looking better, but are not up to beating a quality Falcons team at home.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 24-20. Atlanta by 3, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 23-16. Atlanta 61% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Atlanta, 21-20. Atlanta won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 7-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: St. Louis, 20-17
Atlanta lives up to their #1 overall Creative Elite ranking by doubling up the Rams in St. Louis. Matt Ryan continues his solid season and the defense buckles down in the second half to keep the Rams from upsetting one of the best teams in the league. All systems, except picking the home team, get this game right, with both Scottie V and the Best Recod system picking St. Louis' score perfectly.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (Actual ~ New England, 31-28)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 28-24. I hate picking a winner in this game, because it could go either way quite easily, but New England has to be given the edge at home.
Scottie V's Pick: New England, 27-24. Much as I hate to admit it, the Pats are operating on all cylinders.
Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 27-23. New England by 3.5, Over/Under 50.
Accuscore Pick: New England, 21-16. New England 60% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Indianapolis, 24-20. Indianapolis won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 7-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: New England, 20-17
The series of the past decade - Manning vs Brady - lives up to its hype once again as New England builds and early 17-point lead and then withstands a furious Colts' comeback to escape with a 31-28 victory. Manning makes the final, critical mistake that costs his team a shot at a game-tying field goal. New England's victory not only keeps them in step with the high-flying New York Jets, it also guarantees any possible playoff match-up against Indianapolis will be played in frigid New England. Only What If Sports failed to predict the home team winning another epic battle between these two franchises.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 27-17)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Philadelphia, 27-24. There won't be any let down for the Eagles as they see a perfect opportunity to snag the outright division lead from the Giants.
Scottie V's Pick: Philadelphia, 24-21. Could be the game of the week... The Giants need a win after their surprise loss to the Cowboys and the Eagles are riding high after Vick's insane performance on Monday night
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 26-21. Philadelphia by 3.5, Over/Under 48.
Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 23-14. Philadelphia 63% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 17-14. Philadelphia won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Both teams at 6-3, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17
Philadelphia takes complete control of the NFC East by dispatching the Giants at home. New York puts up quite a fight and hammers Vick multilpe times, but ultimately an ill-fated, all-out blitz on 4th and 1 and Eli Manning's carelessness with the football cost the Giants a victory on the road. All systems score another victory taking the home team. Near perfection is attained by the blind pick systems, who have New York's half of the score correct, while Creative Misfortune gets the Eagles' score right on the number to close out a fantastic day of prognostication.
Come back tomorrow to view the final prediction standings following the Monday Night Game and the complete week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results.
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