Thursday, October 6, 2011

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings - Week 4 (2011)

Creative Misfortune Power Rankings are based on a complicated formula that takes into account, among other things, a team's projected ability to score an Offensive Fumble Recovery TD. All power rankings guaranteed to be less accurate than real NFL team abilities on any given Sunday and are subject to change on a weekly basis.

When it comes to Creative Misfortune Power Rankings, winning isn't the only thing, but it is the most important component of the rating. I don't believe teams can be powerful if they consistently lose, even to other great teams.

The Forked Few~
     Abandon hope and fortune all ye who rank here

     # 32 - St. Louis Rams (previous: 31)
                    Even in the NFC West the Rams won't be able to overcome their horrible start.

     # 31 - Miami Dolphins (previous: 29)
                    Coach Sparano has been given the kiss of death by Owner Stephen Ross, who says he supports Sparano 100%, despite Miami's winless start. He now has two weeks to prepare for a division matchup with the Jets. A bad loss in that game will probably seal Sparano's fate in Miami once the season ends, if not sooner.

     # 30 - Indianapolis Colts (previous: 30)
                    Painter is no Manning, but after his gutty performance against the Buccaneers, he showed he can be far more useful than your typical clipboard holder.

     # 29 - Kansas City Chiefs (previous: 32)
                    A win against the Vikings isn't saying a whole lot, but after the terrible start to the season, the Chiefs are happy to have any hope in their 2011 campaign.

     # 28 - Jacksonville Jaguars (previous: 27)
                    The Jaguars have one more win than the Colts, but they seem lifeless compared to Indianapolis.



The Creatively Challenged~
     Folly remains ever their mistress

     # 27 - Minnesota Vikings (previous: 28)
                    Possibly the best of the winless teams, Minnesota needs to improve all aspects of their game starting now if they want to salvage any shred of hope for this season. Another loss should be the last one before Christian Ponder is given the reigns and the experience he will need to lead this team into the future.

     # 26 - Seattle Seahawks (previous: 26)
                    There is some life in Seattle, but it certainly isn’t very interesting.

     # 25 - Denver Broncos (previous: 24)
                    Even if Orton remains the starter, you can’t tell me that Tim Tebow can't fill some sort of slash-type role on this struggling offense. Give the kid a chance to prove himself once and for all or fail in the effort. Don’t just let him sit on the bench.

     # 24 - Carolina Panthers (previous: 25)
                    The stats are impressive, but where are the wins? A video-game like matchup against the Saints this week will end with the Panthers staying true to form - statistically superb, but failing on the one stat that really matters: points scored.

     # 23 - Arizona Cardinals (previous: 23)
                    The Cardinals showed they can run the ball. We always knew they could pass. Now can they just play some fourth quarter defense?

     # 22 - Cleveland Browns (previous: 18)
                    Looks like Cleveland fans are in for another long season of underachievement.

     # 21 - Philadelphia Eagles (previous: 19)
                    Only one "Dream Team" ever amounted to much and lived up to all expectations placed on them. Philadelphia would do well to distance themselves from the label Vince Young helped the media come up with. The best solution - win more than you lose. Afterall, winning turns even perennial losers into "dream teams". Just ask the Detroit Lions.



The Remarkably Average~
     Dancing the fine line between misfortune and glory

     # 20 - Dallas Cowboys (previous: 17)
                    Romo better decide if he is going to be a hero or a goat coming out of the bye week. He's been both extremes this season. Truth is somewhere in the middle, which is why 8-8 may be the best this team can hope for unless the boneheaded mental mistakes are stopped sooner rather than later.

     # 19 - Atlanta Falcons (previous: 20)
                    Atlanta has all the potential in the world, but potential won't help them overcome both the Saints and the Buccaneers. If their defense doesn't start playing better, they'll be hard pressed to keep pace in a competitive division.

     # 18 - Cincinnati Bengals (previous: 22)
                    I owe you an apology, Coach Lewis. You were right. But that was still a ridiculous guarantee.

     # 17 - Chicago Bears (previous: 21)
                    Forte rushes for over 200 yards with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator? Maybe Cutler will survive the season after all.

     # 16 - Oakland Raiders (previous: 13)
                    It's never good to face the Patriots after a loss. The Raiders found that out the hard way. Now it is up to this young team to rebound with a win before they fall back into their old, losing ways.

     # 15 - New York Jets (previous: 7)
                    The Ravens thoroughly grounded the Jets and made their claims of being an elite AFC team look suspect. Behind Sanchez, New York's "Ground and Pound" offense is downright offensive.

     # 14 - Pittsburgh Steelers (previous: 10)
                    Has age finally caught up with the Steeler? Injuries are starting to take their toll and the defense looked like it had lost a step against the fleet-footed Texans last week.

     # 13 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previous: 16)
                    If Tampa Bay ever learns how to stop all the mental mistakes they keep making in the first half of games, they could truly become a championship contender.



The Fortunate Seven~
     The best of those not yet elite

     # 12 - Washington Redskins (previous: 14)
                    A power running game and solid defense have given the Redskins their best start in years.

     # 11 - New York Giants (previous: 12)
                    Could Little Manning be the man now? Sure, he's won a Super Bowl, but until he wins another one, or Peyton retires, he will not be able to shake the "immature" label.

     # 10 - Buffalo Bills (previous: 5)
                    Really? Marvin Lewis makes a ridiculous guarantee and the Bills let him get away with it? Nobody expected Buffalo to be perfect - or even 3-1, for that matter - but that was a bad loss to the Bengals last Sunday.

     # 9 - San Diego Chargers (previous: 15)
                    For the first time in years, San Diego escaped September with a winning record. Now, if they could start blowing out teams, a la the Packers, Patriots and Saints, instead of playing down to their opponent's level, they could be on to something here.

     # 8 - San Francisco 49ers (previous: 8)
                    A huge comeback win over the Eagles, combined with the overall ineptness of the other NFC West teams has the 49ers suddenly believing in themselves.

     # 7 - Houston Texans (previous: 9)
                    When one hammy heals, another is injured. Can't the Texans keep both Foster and Johnson on the field at the same time?

     # 6 - New Orleans Saints (previous: 6)
                    Drew Brees finally has the offense clicking and with the defense showing signs of life, the Saints are in perfect position to regain the division title they lost last season.



The Creative Elite~
     Wielding misfortune at its finest

     # 5 - Tennessee Titans (previous: 11)
                    The Titans are winning despite their high-priced running game. Strong defense and a veteran quarterback, who didn’t get the memo saying he is washed up, will keep Tennessee in a tight struggle with Houston for the division title.

     # 4 - New England Patriots (previous: 4)
                    With the stumbling of Buffalo and New York last week, the Patriots are in perfect position to take back control of the AFC East. Now if they could just find a defense…

     # 3 - Detroit Lions (previous: 2)
                    How great would it be if the undefeated Detroit Lions faced off against the undefeated Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day? Even better would be if these two teams met in the final game of the season with a combined 29-1 record to battle for the division title. Stranger things have happened. The league should not be concerned that Detroit has started 4-0 after two impressive comeback victories. The league should be concerned that the Lions suddenly believe they can beat anybody, no matter what.

     # 2 - Baltimore Ravens (previous: 3)
                    Not many defensive struggles end up being so high scoring. Sure, the offense has issues, but when the defense can outscore its own offense 21-13, you just might have the potential to go deep into the playoffs.

     # 1 - Green Bay Packers (previous: 1)
                    Until they finally lose a game, there is no reason to believe the Packers will fall short of another Super Bowl title.



Week 4 Power Ranking Awards:

The Free Fallers - New York Jets (-8), Buffalo Bills (-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (-4), Cleveland Browns (-4), Oakland Raiders (-3)

The Biggest Movers - Tennessee Titans (+6), San Diego Chargers (+6), Chicago Bears (+4), Cincinnati Bengals (+4), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

Maintaining The Status Quo - Green Bay Packers (1), New England Patriots (4), New Orleans Saints (6), San Francisco 49ers (8), Arizona Cardinals (23), Seattle Seahawks (26), Indianapolis Colts (30)


Creative Misfortune Super Bowl XLVI Favorite ~ After Week 4

Green Bay Packers



Check back tomorrow for week 5 predictions.

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