Monday, September 9, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 1 (2013)

With two games remaining in week 1, the first week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...

Vegas comes out on top - as it often does - hitting 11 out of 14 games over the weekend, an impressive 78.57% accuracy percentage that can't possibly be maintained over the course of the entire season.

The blind pick systems, Home Team and Best Record, tied for second getting 9 out of 14 games for a solid 64.29% accuracy percentage, exceeding their normal expected performance.

Both PPY formulas struggled a bit as a few surprises took place around the league, coming in with 8 out of 14 games picked correctly, a very underwhelming 57.14% accuracy. History shows both formulas get stronger as the year goes on, but we will see if 2013 shapes up to be an off-year for them as the NFL continues to be the most unpredictable of sports.

Here are the Monday Night Game predictions for week 1. Two games on the card tonight. Enjoy! 


Monday Night Game Predictions:

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Houston Texans by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: Houston Texans by 4. Texans by 4, Over/Under 44
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego Chargers by 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Washington Redskins by 16
     Vegas Lines Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Redskins by 3, Over/Under 51.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3. Both teams at 0-0, home team wins
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3


Week 1 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

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