With the Monday Night game remaining in week 3, the third week of predictions showed the following results for our systems...
Both Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections formula exceeded the magical 70% accuracy mark by picking 11 out of 15 games correctly over the weekend (73.3%). They will both stay above the 70% success rate for the week if Chicago prevails in tonight's game.
The Vegas Lines system came in at third place, picking 10 out of 15 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy.
The Home Team Wins formula predicted 9 out of 15 games correctly (60% accuracy, slightly above average). The Pythagorean Theorem formula struggled again this week as it continues to find balance early in the season schedule, only hitting 8 out of 15 games correctly (53.3% accuracy).
The worst prediction performance of the week was turned in by the Best Record Wins formula as a host of 0-2 teams scrambled to break into the win column for the first time all season. As a result, the Best Record Wins formula only predicted 6 out of 15 games correctly for a terrible 40% accuracy mark, by far the worst weekly result of the season.
The systems are divided once again on the Monday Night Football matchup with four system favoring the Bears (Overall PPY, Home/Away PPY, Pythagorean Theorem, and Fantasy Projections) and three systems favoring the Jets to win at home (Vegas Lines, Best Record Wins, and Home Team Wins). Either way, I suspect a slow-moving game with few big plays where the first team to score two touchdowns wins.
Monday Night Game Prediction:
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 4
Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Chicago Bears by 1
Vegas Lines Pick: New York Jets by 3. Jets by 2.5, Over/Under 45.5
Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Chicago Bears by 4. Chicago Bears projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.565 - 0.473
Fantasy Projection Pick: Chicago Bears by 5. Chicago Bears projected to win by a fantasy score of 79-66
Best Record Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3. Both teams at 1-1, home team wins
Home Team Wins Pick: New York Jets by 3
Week 3 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?
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