Thursday Night Football - Prediction and Intro to Prediction Systems

IT'S HERE! IT'S FINALLY HERE!

The NFL season kicks off tonight when the defending champion Green Bay Packers battle the New Orleans Saints on the unfrozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

Green Bay comes into the season riding a wave of optimism. More than a few experts have picked them to repeat, but others (yours truly included) don't think the Packers can go the distance again. However, there is no reason to believe they won't go deep into the postseason before their title defense falls short. The Packers enter the season healthy, which is more than can be said for the way they entered the playoffs last year. An off-season of turmoil will only help them remain one of the elite teams in the NFL.

New Orleans, just a season removed from their own Super Bowl title, also weathered the lockout better than most teams under the leadership of quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints look like a team ready to prove the end of 2010 – an embarrassing loss to a team with a losing record in the playoffs – was just a fluke. Many experts have the Saints playing in the Super Bowl this year (yours truly included). Since the opening game of the 2011 season pits these two NFL elites against one another, the first 60 minutes of football could have a huge impact on where the NFC championship game is played in late January.

Now, on with the predictions! For every NFL game this season I will do my best to predict the game winner. But what fun would it be to just pick games by myself in a vaccum without having other prediction systems to compare against?

Last season proved to be a bit rough on all prediction systems, with no system hitting the coveted 70% accuracy mark for the entire season. Hopefully, things improve in 2011.

To that end, all games will be predicted by the following systems:

First, the human systems -

Creative Misfortune's Pick – My pick of who I think will win and the points they will win the game by. Creative Misfortune’s picks are based on a Points-Per-Yard formula I developed that proved to be quite successful in 2009, but fell short of my expectations in 2010. After using this system to predict a third season in 2011, I should have a pretty good idea about how accurate (or not) the Points-Per-Yard formula is.

Scottie V’s Pick – My friend, Scottie V, chimes in with his predicted winners and the points they will win by. Despite being a math major, don’t expect any logical formulas or complex computer models out of this guy. He picks with his heart, and did quite well in 2010.

Vegas Lines Pick – These picks will be determined by looking at the favorite and the over/under for the game. Basically, if Team A is a 5.5 point favorite and the Over/Under for the game is 46, the Vegas Lines prediction will be based on Team A winning the game by 6 (beating or matching the spread). The Over/Under value is also included with each Vegas Lines pick to give you an idea of how high (or low) scoring Vegas thinks the game will be.


Second, the "blind" control systems -

The blind control predictions are exactly that - blind to the teams involved in the game. They only care where the game is played and the record of the teams involved. No fancy stats. No gut feelings. Just blind picks, even if it means picking Cincinnati or Carolina to beat Green Bay.

Best Record Wins, Else Home Team Wins – This is the so-called "Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate", proposed by ESPN's Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) readers Eric Isaacson of Indiana University and Catey Tarbell of Kirkland, Washington. You can view a discussion of this system in TMQ's archived column for February 9, 2010 under the heading "Weekly Game Predictions". This system basically predicts that the team with the best record will win the game. In case both teams have identical records, the Home Team will be predicted to win. Because all the predictions on The Art of Creative Misfortune will have point spreads associated with them, the NFL’s default score of 20-17 will be used for any Best Record Wins predictions. Teams picked to win by the Best Record Wins system will be expected to win by 3 points.

Home Team Wins - ***The True Control Value*** - Let’s face it. Any prediction system that loses out to blindly predicting that the Home Team will win, regardless of the matchup, is not a good prediction system. As such, this will be used as a control value to blindly pick all games. Typically, NFL teams win at home about 57% of the time. All the other predictions systems featured on The Art of Creative Misfortune should be able to beat the Home Team Wins system. As with the Best Record Wins system, all Home Team Wins predictions will predict based on the NFL's default score of 20-17, i.e. Home Team wins by 3.

Now, let's pick tonight's matchup...

Thursday Night Football Score Prediction:

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
     Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. The Packers kick-off their 2011 title defense with a gritty win over another NFC powerhouse.
     Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay Packers by 4. Aaron Rodgers and co take on one of the NFC's best and handle them at home.
     Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay Packers by 5. Packers by 4.5, Over/Under 47.5
     Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3. Both teams at 0-0, advantage home.
     Home Team Wins Pick: Green Bay Packers by 3.


Tomorrow, predictions for the Sunday games slated for Week 1 NFL action...