Monday, November 10, 2014

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 10 (2014)

All systems performed well in week 10, with the exception of the blind Home Team Wins formula.

Three systems exceeded the 70% accuracy mark by picking 9 out of 12 games correctly for 75% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula, the Vegas Lines formula, and the Pythagorean Theorem formula.

Three systems came close to the 70% accuracy mark by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for 66.7% accuracy. Those systems were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula, the Fantasy Projections formula, and the blind Best Record Wins formula.

The blind Home Team Wins formula finished in sole possession of last place this week, only picking 6 out of 12 games correctly, for a 50% accuracy.

All systems favor the Philadelphia Eagles to win tonight at home by about 9 points.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 12
     Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 6. Eagles by 6, Over/Under 48
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 13. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.660 - 0.336
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 10. Philadelphia Eagles projected to win by a fantasy score of 93-64
     Best Record Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3. Eagles better at 6-2
     Home Team Wins Pick: Philadelphia Eagles by 3


Week 10 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

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