Monday, November 17, 2014

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 11 (2014)

All systems struggled to perform in week 11 as NFL teams scrambled to maintain their position in the chase for playoff spots.

Almost all systems picked just 7 out of 13 games correctly this weekend, for an uninspiring 53.9% accuracy.

Only two systems did not finish the week picking 7 games correctly and those were Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the Fantasy Projections. Both of those formulas only managed to pick 5 of the 13 games correctly, to finish with a terrible 38.5% accuracy.

All systems, except the blind Home Team Wins formula, favor the Pittsburgh Steelers to win tonight on the road.


Monday Night Game Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 11
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 6. Steelers by 5.5, Over/Under 46.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.552 - 0.262
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 12. Pittsburgh Steelers projected to win by a fantasy score of 91-57
     Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3. Steelers better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee Titans by 3

Week 11 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. How many teams improved their fantasy records this week, despite losing in real life?

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