Monday, November 25, 2013

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 12 (2013)

With one game remaining in week 12, the twelfth week of predictions ended up being one of the wildest (and most unproductive) prediction weeks in a long, long time. All systems performed poorly as numerous road teams won, a large number of teams upset their opponents with a better record and the Vikings and Packers battled to a rare tie... what a week! This is why the NFL is such a popular sport. You just never know what is going to happen.

Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Vegas Lines system won the week (if you could call it winning) by picking just 6 out of 13 games correctly over the weekend for a terrible 46.2% accuracy.

Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula came in a close, yet still terrible, third place by picking 5 out of 13 games correctly for a low 38.5% accuracy.

The blind pick systems both struggled mightily this week. With all the road victories, the Home Team Wins formula only managed to pick 4 of the 13 games accurately, for 30.8% accuracy. Coming in last, because of all the upsets, the blind Best Record Wins formula only picked 3 of the 13 games correctly for a season-low 23.1% accuracy. Only the Saints, Panthers and Cowboys won games this week against "inferior" opponents, and all three of those teams needed last-second stops or scores in order to secure their victories.

Almost all systems have the San Francisco 49ers knocking off the Washington Redskins in tonight's game, but after the way this week's games have gone, expect the Redskins to emerge victorious!


Monday Night Game Prediction:

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 14
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 5
     Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6. 49ers by 6, Over/Under 47
     Best Record Wins Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 3. 49ers better at 6-4
     Home Team Wins Pick: Washington Redskins by 3

Week 12 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. The fantasy regular season has ended. NFC and AFC playoff seedings will be broken down as the best 12 fantasy teams start their second season...

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