Monday, December 30, 2013

Regular Season system Prediction Results (2013)

The regular season has come to an end and the Creative Misfortune prediction systems had one of their best weeks all year predicting games.

The Vegas Lines Formula system won Week 17 by picking a near-perfect 15 out of 16 games correctly for a 93.8% accuracy.

Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula did almost as well, picking 13 out of 16 games correctly for an impressive 81.3% accuracy.

Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula and the blind Best Record Wins system both had solid, above-average weeks picking 12 of the 16 games correctly (75.0%).

The blind Home Team Wins formula finished last as it only picked 10 of the 16 games correctly for an average 62.5% accuracy.

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Overall for the season, the Vegas Lines Formula system was the most accurate, picking 175 out of 256 games correctly for 68.4% accuracy.

The second best system of the season goes to Creative Misfortune's new Home/Away PPY formula, which predicted 164 out of 256 games correctly for 64.1% accuracy.

The blind Best Record Wins formula and Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula also topped the 60% accuracy mark for the season by picking 156 and 155 games correctly for just under 61% accuracy.

Finishing the season in last - but still exceeding expectations - the blind Home Team Wins formula ended the year picking 153 out of 256 games correctly for 59.8% accuracy. Typically NFL home teams win about 57% of their games, regardless of record.


Check back later this week for Creative Misfortune's final regular season power rankings, which will be posted on Thursday, January 2nd and Wild Card game predictions, which will will be posted on Friday, January 3rd.

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