Monday, November 3, 2014

Predictions of Creative Misfortune - MNF - Week 9 (2014)

Best overall picks of week 9 went to the Vegas Lines formula, which picked 9 out of 12 games correctly for an impressive 75% accuracy.

Both of the blind pick systems - Best Record Wins and Home Team Wins - finished the week tied for second place by picking 8 out of 12 games correctly for a very solid 66.7% accuracy.

The remaining formulas all struggled this week, hitting less than 60% accuracy with the following results: Fantasy Projections picked 7 out of 12 games correctly (58.3%), while Creative Misfortune's Overall PPY formula and the Pythagoren Theorem formula both picked 6 out of 12 games correctly (50.0%). Creative Misfortune's Home/Away PPY formula finished last, only picking 4 out of 12 games correctly for a season-low 41.7% accuracy.

Most systems favor the Indianapolis Colts to win on the road, but two systems predict a victory for the Giants coming out of their bye week.

Monday Night Game Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
     Overall Points Per Yard Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 10
     Home/Away Points Per Yard Pick: New York Giants by 1
     Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts by 3, Over/Under 50.5
     Pythagorean Theorem Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 9. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a 2014 Pythagorean Rating of 0.666 - 0.445
     Fantasy Projection Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 12. Indianapolis Colts projected to win by a fantasy score of 100-67
     Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis Colts by 3. Colts better at 5-3
     Home Team Wins Pick: New York Giants by 3

Week 9 "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." results will be posted on Wednesday. It's crunch time of the fantasy football season. With only four weeks remaining before the playoffs, every point is critical, and all teams, except the New York Jets, have a shot at the fantasy playoffs.

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