Vegas Picks leads the way in week 14, expanding its lead on all other systems after a solid weekend of picks. Blindly picking the team with the best record, the clear winner three straight weeks in a row, stumbled in week 14 as the Packers, Jets and Chiefs all get upset.
Thursday Night Result:
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Actual ~ Indianapolis, 30-28)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Indianapolis, 27-17. On a short week, offenses have the advantage and Manning and the Colts, despite their recent troubles, have a far superior offense than the Titans.
Scottie V's Pick: Indianapolis, 28-17. This is a must-win for Indy and the Titans are slumping badly
Vegas Lines Pick: Indianapolis, 26-20. Indianapolis by 3, Over/Under 45.
Accuscore Pick: Indianapolis, 17-14. Indianapolis 52% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Tennessee, 28-12. Tennessee won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Indianapolis, 20-17. Indianapolis better at 6-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: Tennessee, 20-17
Peyton Manning ended his Pick-6 streak with a solid, interception-free performance on Thursday Night. The Colts dominated the first half, then slowed down enough in the second half to allow the Titans to crawl back into the game. A touchdown pass from Collins to Scaife on the final play - meaningless, really, unless you had wagered on the outcome or had Scaife started on your fantasy team - made the game appear a lot closer than it actually was. All systems, except the Home Team Wins and What If sports, picked up their first win of the week. What If Sports did however get Tennessee's score right on the mark. Too bad they had the Colts scoring so few.
Sunday Game Results:
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (Actual ~ Buffalo, 13-6)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Cleveland, 21-17. Cleveland is playing much better than Buffalo these days and didn't get crushed last week.
Scottie V's Pick: Buffalo, 23-17. The Bills are the best bad team in the NFL.
Vegas Lines Pick: Buffalo, 23-20. Buffalo by 1, Over/Under 39.5.
Accuscore Pick: Cleveland, 21-17. Cleveland 57% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Cleveland, 23-14. Cleveland won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Cleveland, 20-17. Cleveland better at 5-7.
Home Team Wins Pick: Buffalo, 20-17
It's really hard to win football games when you can't even cross the 50-yard line in the second half. Cleveland struggles mightily on offense and is shut down by a Buffalo defense that just last week was lit up by the Vikings for 38 points. Most systems miss this one, but Scottie V, Vegas Lines and blindly picking the Home Team all get a win from this lackluster game.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (Actual ~ New England, 36-7)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New England, 28-20. The Patriots are on a roll and their defense is too opportunistic not to make Cutler pay for a few errant throws.
Scottie V's Pick: New England, 34-17. The red-hot Pats expose the Bears.
Vegas Lines Pick: New England, 24-20. New England by 3, Over/Under 40.5.
Accuscore Pick: New England, 23-16. New England 61% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Chicago, 20-10. Chicago won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New England, 20-17. New England better at 10-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Chicago, 20-17
Cold-weather, home-field advantage, normally a boon to the Bears, means nothing when another, far superior cold-weather team comes to town. New England obliterates Chicago on the road and solidifies their standing in the NFL as the best team. For the Bears the loss creates further doubt regarding their ability to beat winning teams and already their victory over Philadelphia just a few weeks ago means nothing. All systems except What If Sports and the Home Team system get an easy win.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Actual ~ Detroit, 7-3)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Green Bay, 34-17. The Packers are the best offensive team in the NFC and Detroit's defense won't be able to slow them down.
Scottie V's Pick: Green Bay, 27-20. Aaron Rodgers is a stud and this team needs the win to keep up with the Bears.
Vegas Lines Pick: Green Bay, 27-20. Green Bay by 6.5, Over/Under 46.
Accuscore Pick: Green Bay, 28-10. Green Bay 76% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Green Bay, 17-16. Green Bay won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Green Bay, 20-17. Green Bay better at 8-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Detroit, 20-17
Detroit snaps their record streak of losing games to divisional rivals with a surprising, punishing upset of the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers was lost in the second quarter to a concussion and the Packers were never able to rally. Their pre-season status as a Super Bowl contender took a serious hit with the loss. Now to make the playoffs they will have to catch and pass the Bears for the division title as a wild-card spot seems less likely now with all relevant teams in the NFC South winning. Only the Home Team system scores a win as all other systems, like the Cheeseheads in Wisconsin, get shocked by the outcome.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Actual ~ Pittsburgh, 23-7)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Pittsburgh, 27-21. Pittsburgh coasts to a win after dominating the first half, but Cincinnati's garbage-time offense will help keep the end game close.
Scottie V's Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-13. Coming off an emotional victory over the Ravens, the Steel Curtain keeps their eye on the prize and takes care of business vs. the Bungles.
Vegas Lines Pick: Pittsburgh, 26-16. Pittsburgh by 8.5, Over/Under 39.5.
Accuscore Pick: Pittsburgh, 31-6. Pittsburgh 84% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Pittsburgh, 24-13. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17. Pittsburgh better at 9-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: Pittsburgh, 20-17
The Steelers won a game they should have won against a weak division opponent and maintain their control of the AFC North. No system is surprised by the outcome and the woes for Cincinnati's offense continue.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (Actual ~ Tampa Bay, 17-16)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Tampa Bay, 24-10. The Bucs don't lose to teams with losing records.
Scottie V's Pick: Tampa Bay, 23-17. Not sure I'm really buying the Bucs, but at least they're not grossly overpaying an aging quarterback.
Vegas Lines Pick: Tampa Bay, 23-20. Tampa Bay by 1.5, Over/Under 41.
Accuscore Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay 54% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Washington, 23-13. Washington won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Tampa Bay, 20-17. Tampa Bay better at 7-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Washington, 20-17
The football gods have decided the Buccaneers will not lose a game to team with a losing record this season. If anybody doubts that, all they have to do is watch film from this game with Washington. Granted, the Redskins have been underachieving all season, but to miss two short field goals and to not even get off the game-tying extra point is going above and beyond the call of duty. Gano may be gone on Monday. Only What If Sports and the Home Team systems are burned by Washington's complete inability in the kicking game.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Actual ~ Atlanta, 31-10)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Atlanta, 23-7. The Falcons may be tempted to mail this one in, but the charging Saints and Buccaneers will motivate them to put the Panthers away quickly.
Scottie V's Pick: Atlanta, 27-10. This should be an easy victory for the Falcons... Do they have the maturity to take care of business? I think so.
Vegas Lines Pick: Atlanta, 26-17. Atlanta by 7, Over/Under 42.5.
Accuscore Pick: Atlanta, 24-13. Atlanta 67% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Carolina, 26-16. Carolina won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Atlanta, 20-17. Atlanta better at 10-2.
Home Team Wins Pick: Carolina, 20-17
The Falcons did what they were supposed to do against a weak division opponent and won easily to improve to an NFC-best 11-2. Michael Turner makes his fantasy owners happy by cashing in three touchdowns and Matt Ryan plays efficiently. Carolina maintained their inside track to the #1 draft pick in 2011 and showed no real signs of relinquishing their grip on the worst record in the NFL. Once again only What If Sports and the Home Team system take a hit by backing the Panthers at home against one of the best teams in the league.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (Actual ~ Jacksonville, 38-31)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Jacksonville, 23-21. Jacksonville will do just enough at home to win a close one and maintain their division lead.
Scottie V's Pick: Jacksonville, 24-23. The Jags are playing well... Home field puts them over the hump against the Raiders.
Vegas Lines Pick: Jacksonville, 24-17. Jacksonville by 4, Over/Under 43.
Accuscore Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville 54% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Oakland, 24-17. Oakland won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17. Jacksonville better at 7-5.
Home Team Wins Pick: Jacksonville, 20-17
In the unexpected shoot-out of the day, the Jaguars get the win at home and stay one step ahead of the Indianapolis Colts. Jacksonville wins again on the strength of three Garrard touchdown passes and 100-yard rushing games from both Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings. Oakland running back Darren McFadden gave his best effort and scored three distance touchdowns for the Raiders, twice on the ground and once through the air, but in the end Oakland's defense failed to keep the Jaguars out of the end zone in the closing minutes. All systems, except What If Sports, get another victory.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Actual ~ San Francisco, 40-21)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Francisco, 21-17. The 49ers prevail in another classic NFC West battle.
Scottie V's Pick: San Francisco, 23-20. Giving the Niners the nod at Candlestick (or whatever they call it now).
Vegas Lines Pick: San Francisco, 24-17. San Francisco by 5.5, Over/Under 41.5.
Accuscore Pick: San Francisco, 23-14. San Francisco 62% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Francisco, 20-14. San Francisco won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Seattle, 20-17. Seattle better at 6-6.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Francisco, 20-17
The NFC West once again is led by two teams below .500- St. Louis and Seattle. With their offensive explosion against the Seahawks, the 49ers once again enter the division race picture. At 5-8, San Francisco is just one game out of first place in the woeful division. All systems get a win by backing the 49ers except the Best Record system.
St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints (Actual ~ New Orleans, 31-13)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New Orleans, 30-23. Bradford is good, but Brees is better.
Scottie V's Pick: New Orleans, 31-20. The Rams are improving, but the Saints have a Division race to win.
Vegas Lines Pick: New Orleans, 30-17. New Orleans by 9.5, Over/Under 47.
Accuscore Pick: New Orleans, 31-7. New Orleans 82% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New Orleans, 14-6. New Orleans won 4 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17. New Orleans better at 9-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: New Orleans, 20-17
The defending Super Bowl champions refuse to go away quietly and win easily at home over an overmatched, though much-improved, St. Louis team. In a possible preview of a wild card matchup in January, New Orleans showed they were clearly the better team. Drew Brees played a bit off his game, only throwing for 221 yards and tossing two interceptions, but he led the Saints to an easy victory with three touchdown passes. The defense returned an interception for another score and the Rams had no chance to rally. All systems picked the game correctly, with both Scottie V and Accuscore systems getting the Saints' score perfect.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Actual ~ Miami, 10-6)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: New York, 17-14. Miami plays tough on the road, but offensively they can't compare to the Patriots and won't be able to break through a Jets D that was embarassed last week.
Scottie V's Pick: New York, 23-17. Still not sure I'm buying the Jets (Monday Night didn't help), but I think they'll take down the Dolph's.
Vegas Lines Pick: New York, 23-17. New York by 5.5, Over/Under 39.5.
Accuscore Pick: New York, 21-16. New York 58% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: New York, 19-14. New York won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: New York, 20-17. New York better at 9-3.
Home Team Wins Pick: New York, 20-17
The Jets are a team with loud mouths and little character. How else do you explain their complete humiliation last week in New England and the cheap shot one of their assistant coaches took when he tripped an unsuspecting Dolphin player sprinting down the sideline? New York's complete unprofessionalism and total lack of ability to put their money where their mouth is ruining their season. Now a full two games back of New England, the Jets are in danger of slipping out of the playoff picture. Here's hoping this little bit of humble pie will finally get them to shut up and focus on their game. So far, they have been anything but impressive. No system gets this pick correct as all systems fall for the hype.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (Actual ~ Arizona, 43-13)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Denver, 27-14. Interim coaches always - ALWAYS - win their first game, if 2010 has shown us anything, especially when they play the Arizona Cardinals.
Scottie V's Pick: Denver, 20-17. Hard to believe that the Cards have fallen this far, but I have zero confidence in them, even at home against a interimly-coached Bronc team.
Vegas Lines Pick: Denver, 24-17. Denver by 5.5, Over/Under 42.
Accuscore Pick: Denver, 23-16. Denver 61% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Arizona, 24-23. Arizona won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17. Both teams at 3-9, advantage home.
Home Team Wins Pick: Arizona, 20-17
So much for belief in the myth of the flawless opening game of an interim coach. Denver looked completely out of it as the Cardinals, a team left for dead the last few weeks, exploded for 43 points. Most systems take a hit believing Denver had turned a corner by firing McDaniels, but What If Sports, the Home Team and the Best Record systems all get much needed wins.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (Actual ~ San Diego, 31-0)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: San Diego, 28-24. San Diego won't be humiliated two weeks in a row... at home... in December... by division opponents. Will they?
Scottie V's Pick: Kansas City, 27-23. The Game of the Week... The Chiefs roll into San Diego and get a HUGE win against their divisional foe.
Vegas Lines Pick: San Diego, 28-20. San Diego by 7, Over/Under 47.
Accuscore Pick: San Diego, 28-7. San Diego 79% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: San Diego, 24-23. San Diego won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Kansas City, 20-17. Kansas City better at 8-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: San Diego, 20-17
OK, Kansas city. I'm not 100% certain about this, but you don't usually win your division race by getting crushed 31-0. San Diego was reeling after their loss to the Raiders and had the Chiefs scored early, they might have won the division outright, but the fast start went to the Chargers and they never looked back. San Diego still has some work to do to catch the Chiefs with only three games left to play. For fantasy owners out there who survived Dwayne Bowe's no catch performance last week, I can't believe his 1 catch for 3 yards this week helped them much. Most systems get this pick correct, with only Scottie V and the Best Record system getting stunned by the Chiefs total lack of offense.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Actual ~ Philadelphia, 30-27)
Creative Misfortune's Pick: Philadelphia, 24-17. The Cowboys have been playing well lately, but the Eagles will do just enough to end Dallas' faint hopes at a playoff spot.
Scottie V's Pick: Philadelphia, 27-21. Good game as well... Mike Vick is the difference.
Vegas Lines Pick: Philadelphia, 28-24. Philadelphia by 3.5, Over/Under 50.5.
Accuscore Pick: Philadelphia, 24-13. Philadelphia 67% win confidence
What If Sports Pick: Philadelphia, 20-17. Philadelphia won 3 of 5 simulations.
Best Record Wins Pick: Philadephia, 20-17. Philadephia better at 8-4.
Home Team Wins Pick: Dallas, 20-17
Dallas' painfully disappointing 2010 season finally came to an end as the Cowboys achieved their 9th loss of the season. And now this blog will pause for a moment of silence for the demise of Creative Misfortune's favorite team... ...That's long enough. Philadelphia avenges their late season losses last year to Dallas and moves into first place by a half-game in the NFC East. If the Vikings can win their "home" game in Detroit on Monday night, the Eagles will have a full game lead over the Giants with only three to play. All systems, except picking the Home Team, get another victory.
Come back tomorrow to view the final prediction standings following the Monday Night Game and the Divisional playoff results for Creative Misfortune's "If Real Football Used Fantasy Scoring..." season.
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